Kidnap for ransom: Developments on the horizon 2016

Brittany Damora is the Senior Operations Manager at Aegis Response and Lottie Catto is an
Operations Manager. You can follow them on twitter @kidnap_response.

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The year 2015 has demonstrated that kidnap for ransom is a threat that is here to stay. For 2016, Aegis
Response has identified two factors that will significantly affect the threat landscape: technology and
the Islamic State. For companies operating in areas where abduction is a risk, these two developments
are likely to have a marked effect on preventing and resolving kidnap for ransom incidents.
Technology
The accelerated increase in the use of technology is already having an impact on how traditional
kidnap for ransoms are
perpetrated and managed. On
the one hand, this can be
positive for both the potential
victims and for those seeking to
release them. For example,
Aegis Response has noted a
shift away from negotiations
taking place via telephone calls,
to email negotiations with
kidnappers, with Islamic State
almost exclusively using this
form of communication for
their demands. This gives a
crisis management team the
luxury of time in a less
pressured environment,
enabling them to reach a decision on strategy and to craft an ideal response behind closed doors.
In terms of proof of life, there are many more options for verification video voice calls, for example
that can provide extra assurance that a victim is alive and being held by the group in question.
However, the almost blanket use of forms of social media and popular messaging applications creates
new problems in the kidnap for ransom arena. Victims can now be vulnerable to simple
reconnaissance on their personal wealth gleaned from photos posted online and employment
information, which kidnappers can investigate from the comfort of their own homes, choosing from a
wide range of potential victims. There have been cases of kidnappers with sophisticated cyber
capability conducting research on their victims bank accounts, abducting them, and then forcing them
to simply use their online bank accounts to personally transfer a specific ransom amount for their
release.
So, where does this leave insurance reimbursements? While bitcoin, the anonymous currency, is used
extensively in cyber extortions, it is spilling over into the realm of kidnap for ransom: we have begun
to see cases where kidnappers have demanded to be paid ransoms in this crypto currency. For
instance, in October, a businessman from Hong Kong was released after being kidnapped and held in
Taiwan for over a month by a gang demanding a ransom of USD9 million in bitcoin. Over the coming
year, the trajectory of this technological shift will proceed apace and for better or worse further
changes are likely in the field of traditional kidnap for ransom.

Islamic State
The Islamic State, for its part, has
begun to change the rules of the
game in which we response
companies play.
While the vast majority of
kidnappings by the group are
financially motivated, the situation
becomes far more complex when
combined with an ideological
narrative.
Over the last year, media attention
has focused largely on the
nationality of the victim, with
images of American, British, and
Japanese citizens beheaded
available on nearly every media source. The Islamic State knows its history just as we determine the
going rate of kidnap groups, they too estimate ransom payments based on their hostages nationalities.
Although abduction is mainly opportunistic, Islamic State-associated militants in Afghanistan, Iraq,
Egypt, Somalia and Syria will continue to seek victims who garner the highest price and the greatest
degree of global media attention.
Considering that foreign civilians will largely avoid Syria in 2016, the risks there should remain the
same, although attempts to kidnap Russian, Iranian, and Lebanese fighters will likely increase due to
their growing presence. Moreover, an increasing number of Islamic State recruits from Iraqi and
Afghani refugee centres in Iran are being sent to Syria. Al-Nusra Front will also remain active in Syria
in both kidnap for political/ideological purposes and for commercial reasons. While both the Islamic
State and Nusra Front are designated terrorist groups, the latter has shown greater interest and
flexibility in hostage negotiations as its financial model differs from that of the Islamic State.
A new risk in 2016 will be the possibility of militant groups outside Iraq and Syria, such as in Nigeria,
Libya, Yemen and the Philippines, executing foreign hostages in an effort to show solidarity with the
Islamic State. Indeed, this pattern began to emerge in 2015: on 12 August, a Twitter account
associated with militant group Sinai Province posted a photo purporting to show the dead body of
Tomislav Salopek, the Croatian national kidnapped in Cairo on 22 July. The photo showed Salopeks
severed head atop his body and the black banner used by the Islamic State. The next day, the Islamic
State in an audio broadcast of its activities across the Middle East said that, Sinai Province, the
soldiers of the caliphate killed the Croatian captive whose country participated in the war on Islamic
State.... Similarly, on 24 September, French tourist Herve Gourdel was beheaded in Algeria in a
video published online by Jund al-Khilifah or Soldiers of the Caliphate who pledged loyalty to
Islamic State chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi on 13 September. Breakaway groups newly pledging their
allegiance to the Islamic State have a clear incentive to commit headline-grabbing atrocities that give
them recognition in an increasingly crowded market.
Concurrent with this shifting threat landscape, Aegis Response is now seeing a changing form of
negotiation. Aegis Response has new tools at its disposal to get off the back foot and gain control.
Ultimately, it is our responsibility to share this knowledge with any individual or organisation
travelling to a region where there is a high risk of kidnap for ransom. Moreover, it is increasingly

important that victims share their experiences, as is the need for a better dialogue process between the
insurance industry and the network of global response companies.
Aegis Response is a Kidnap for Ransom (K&R) and Threat Extortion Response Service, led by
a senior management team with over 50 years combined experience of successfully resolving
hundreds of response cases worldwide.

Project for Study of the 21st Century is a non-national, non-ideological, non-partisan organization.
All views expressed are the authors own.