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In step with Ghanis Afghanistan

Apr 24, 2015 01:18 AM , By Suhasini Haidar | 40 comments

Suhasini Haider

As India prepares to welcome Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani, it must recognise that
political changes and new regional equations, rather than past years of goodwill, will be the most
important determinants of the future course of India-Afghanistan relations
On a visit to Afghanistan in February 2014, it looked as though relations between India and
Afghanistan were on a high. Relations were set to get into a new pace, with India
committing to projects as part of the total package of $2 billion for development aid and to
a request from Afghanistan for helicopters. The helicopters, three upgraded Cheetals from
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, were to be delivered soon.
Soon has meant more than a year later. The helicopters will now be handed over when
Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani visits New Delhi on April 27. But the Afghanistan they
will land in has changed vastly in the past year, and their impact may not be as deeply felt
as when they were needed a year ago. What has changed? New governments in New Delhi
and Kabul are the most visible change; so have Afghanistans regional equations with
Pakistan, Iran, and China, especially since its President, Hamid Karzai, demitted office.
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to welcome Mr. Ghani, it is this change, rather
than past years of goodwill, that will be the most important determinant of the future
course of India-Afghanistan relations.
Turnaround with Pakistan
Mr. Ghanis turnaround with Pakistan is probably the most dramatic shift in Kabuls foreign
policy. From the moment he assumed office, he has shunned making any comments on
Pakistans Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) support to the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
insurgents in the way Mr. Karzai had, and has pursued closer ties on the military front. He

has invited Pakistans Army Chief General Raheel Sharif, the ISI Chief, Lt. General Rizwan
Akhtar, and two corps commanders to Kabul. He went to Pakistan in November, visiting the
Army General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi. Mr. Ghani agreed to send the first batch
of six officers to Abbottabad for training in February this year. The Peshawar school
massacre in December 2014 and the Kabul embassy attack might have brought the two
countries closer, evident in their sharing information on the terror groups responsible. The
other part to this closeness comes from Mr. Ghanis desire to restart talks with the Taliban.
Much will depend on how much Pakistan delivers in terms of persuading senior Taliban
leaders to appear for talks, even while curbing attacks by the groups under its control in
Afghanistan.
Engagement with China, Iran
Talks with the Taliban have changed the nature of Afghanistans engagement with China as
well. China has traditionally stayed away from playing an overt role in the internal political
process of countries it invests in. Yet, in February this year, its Foreign Minister, Wang Yi,
announced at a press conference in Islamabad that China was ready to play a constructive
role and would provide necessary facilitation at any time if it is required by various parties
in Afghanistan. What he didnt say then, but which is well known, is that Beijing has already
hosted a team headed by the leader of the Talibans political office in Qatar, Qari Din
Mohammad, to discuss the way forward. The Taliban visit came a month after Mr. Ghani
had been to Beijing, in October 2014, and issued a public invitation for talks to the Taliban
when at a press conference with the Chinese President, Xi Jinping. Around the same time, a
senior Minister in the Ghani cabinet visited India and his message to the Indian government
was clear; For peace in Afghanistan, we need a handle on the Taliban, for which we need a
handle on Pakistan, for which we need China.
For China, the move to reach out is clearly driven by Mr. Xis desire to clear the path to
Central Asia with his Silk Route One Belt, One Road initiative, spanning cities from Xian to
Venice. The project which involves hundreds of billions of dollars to be spent on
infrastructure along the route from China to Europe envisages Afghanistan as an
investment hub, while also securing energy supplies for Chinas burgeoning needs. Mr. Xi is
making it known that he is willing to spend, and spend big on the venture, along with a more
modest Maritime Silk Route initiative. His announcement of a $46 billion plan to build an
economic corridor through Pakistan to the Gwadar port, and which the Chinese will
manage, is in line with that. His plan to link Afghanistan to Pakistan through highways, and
new railway lines will also boost more trade along the route. Simultaneously, the Chinese
outlay of $40 billion in the Silk Route Fund will strengthen Afghan transport and trade links
with Central Asian countries.
Finally, in the discussion on Afghanistans neighbourhood, there is Iran, a country now
poised on the brink of big changes. The P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, Germany,
France, Russia, and China, facilitated by the European Union) agreement to work on a deal
over Irans nuclear programme by June 30 opens up many possibilities for Afghanistan,
which had a go-slow at several points on trade with Tehran because of sanctions by the
United States. There is no doubt that the economic landscape of Afghanistan will change
with the development of trade routes through Iran and Pakistan.
A role for India
Where does India fit in in all this? Has Mr. Ghani spoken with his feet, by travelling to China
on his first state visit, in October 2014, and later to Pakistan, in November, leaving India to
much later, after a visit to the U.S. in March 2015? Does India risk being left out of the loop

when it comes to strategy, trade and development with Afghanistan? This in a changing
region where the U.S.s influence is receding, Chinas influence is rising, Pakistan is more
powerful, and Iran is showing the potential to be the economic powerhouse in its
neighbourhood? The answer: not necessarily. But as Mr. Ghani comes to New Delhi, it is
necessary to recognise the contours of this changing world as well as build a new
dynamism into the India-Afghanistan relationship.
Negative impulses
To begin with, policymakers in New Delhi will have to acknowledge that three essentially
negative impulses have dogged most of the moves made over the past few years. These
are: manoeuvres against Pakistans terror threat; measures cutting trade with Iran because
of U.S. sanctions; and moves countering Chinas rise in the neighbourhood.
The decision to refuse Afghanistans demands of military transport and combat assistance
was essentially driven by Indias nervousness over Pakistans reaction, and attacks by the
LeT on Indian nationals. Eventually, Afghanistans government gave up waiting, and Mr.
Ghani withdrew the requests, made by Mr. Karzai in 2012-13. While India may still not wish
to accede to the Afghan plea for lethal weaponry and combat assistance on the ground, it is
necessary that the government moves quickly on other requests for helicopters, jeeps, and
plans for an academy to train security forces in Kabul. The delivery of the Cheetal
helicopters in a few days could be the signal that India is finally ready to do much more. At
the same time, Mr. Modi may have to accept the inevitability of a dialogue with Pakistan on
cooperating on transit trade with Afghanistan. This would strengthen Mr. Ghanis request to
the Pakistan Commerce Minister, Khurram Dastgir Khan, to include India in the
Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit and Trade Agreement (APTTA) in talks this month.
Second, the delays in the alternate route through Irans Chabahar port can be attributed to
U.S. pressure against deals with Iran. Putting off work on this route will ignore Indian
sacrifices already made in order to build the Zaranj-Delaram highway on the Afghanistan
side. It is imperative that India makes good on its promise to quickly refurbish the Iranian
port, and re-establishes full trade relations with Iran in order to have a head-start on the
new trade route to Afghanistan, that will no doubt emerge as a consequence of the P5+1
agreement with Iran.
Third, the governments opposition to Chinas Silk Route initiative in the neighbourhood
should be revisited. If China is willing to invest in the regions infrastructure, this is
something India can also benefit from, by developing its own trade relations with each of
the countries along the Silk and Maritime Silk Routes. Indias influence over its neighbours,
be it in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region or in the
Indian Ocean region has always been in a historical and cultural context, and involving a
large-heartedness in sharing its resources with its neighbours. India must extend its
generosity of spirit by encouraging its neighbours to benefit from Chinese prosperity, while
being the Un-China itself and reaching out in ways China cant. Mr. Modis visit to the
Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, in March 2015, underlined just what this engagement
could look like.
Afghanistan has shown that it values relations with India, even as it essays the new
opportunities in its own neighbourhood, and Mr. Ghanis visit will be a chance to repose
confidence in those ties. In his inaugural address, Mr. Ghani outlined his countrys fivecircle foreign policy: relations with neighbours, Asian countries, the Islamic world, donor
countries and international institutions. As one of its most reliable donors as the
architect of development projects as prominent as the Parliament, highways and the Salma

dam, a provider of health and education to lakhs of Afghans, and as a strategic partner with
a long history of shared culture and faith India already has a big place in the Afghan
heart. Now, it can well occupy a significant part of each of these circles.
suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in
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