Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
May 2008
Once Upon a Time, Marketing = Media + Creative
2
But Fragmentation Fractured That Proposition
3
New Platforms Would Make Change Possible
120.0%
Mobile Phone
Subscriptions
100.0%
Multichannel Homes
% of US Households
80.0%
Broadband Homes
60.0%
VOD Homes
40.0%
DVR Homes
20.0%
Satellite Radio
Subscriptions
HD Subscriptions
0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
14,000 Retail
Napster Launched Sales
12,000
(June 1999)
10,000 BitTorrent, Kazaa,
Grokster, etc. active
8,000 iTunes Launch
(March 2003)
6,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
5 Source: MAGNA Global, RIAA
The Venture World Would Shake Everything Else Up
•Thousands of new models would surely change everything
Traditional Medium Equivalent / Ad-Supported Revenue Driver
Radio/Music TV Online/Print Out-of-Home Marketing Other
Services Marketing
UGC
Production
Social Content
Individual or Corporate Behavior Driver
Consumption
Niche Content
Consumption
New Place
Consumption
Asset
Management
Content-on-
Demand
Information
Seeking
Commerce /
Shopping
Game Playing
7
With A Digital Revolution Blooming In The Aftermath
8
But Traditional Media Never Died
“Television is the
worst form of
advertising, except
all the others that
have been tried”
9
But Traditional Media Never Died
•New advertisers rely on it for mass branding effects
1987 2007
1 McDonald's 1 AT&T Wireless
2 KFC 2 Verizon
3 Burger King 3 Sprint
4 Miller Lite 4 McDonald's
5 Budweiser 5 Home Depot
6 AT&T 6 T-Mobile
7 Wendy's 7 Subway
8 American Express 8 Toyota Tundra
9 Miller High Life 9 Lowes
10 Advil 10 Wendy's
96.17% 96.72%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2002 2007
600,000
TV
539.0bn
500,000
Radio
400,000
Total Internet
300,000
241.3bn
Newspapers
200,000
56.9bn
100,000 Consumer
51.3bn Magazines
0 37.0bn Search
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.8bn
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Newspapers
Magazines
Internet
Radio
TV
13 Source: MAGNA Global, WARC, InternetWorldStats. Weekly reach figures for France and UK, daily for other countries. Reach definition for magazines = issue reach in France, Italy and
Spain. Internet reach typically = % of population online monthly per Nielsen NetRatings, ITU and other sources as of June 30 2007 (except for US = March 31, 2007)
But Traditional Media Never Died
•…And emerging ones
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Radio
TV
Internet
Newspapers
Magazines
14 Source: MAGNA Global, WARC, InternetWorldStats. Weekly figures for Brazil and Russia. Russia, China and India magazines are issue reach figures. Indian TV and radio = daily, newspapers
= issue. Chinese TV = weekly and radio = daily. Internet typically = % of population online monthly per Nielsen NetRatings, ITU and other sources as of June 30 2007
But Traditional Media Never Died
•It also holds for young audiences…
27.0 P2-5
25.0
P6-11
23.0
21.0
P12-17
19.0
17.0
P18-34
15.0
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
15 Source: MAGNA Global analysis of Nielsen Media Research data
But Traditional Media Never Died
•…In the US and around the world
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0% Adults
50.0%
40.0% Teens
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Brazil
Italy
Germany
UK
France
Spain
US
India
Russia
China
16 Source: WARC
But Traditional Media Never Died
•Is New Media always a better substitute? Consider criteria
Yes! Not
Really
General Print TV
Limited TV content
Sufficient Range available today
of Content
Internet can’t deliver
Sufficient high res video well
Technical Quality
Print is tactile
Equipment
Substitution IPTV: no STB integration
200.0x
Popularity Factor of Conventional
Below Trend
180.0x 2007 Growth Rate Was 34.4%
160.0x 145.8x
140.0x 119.8x
TV in 2011
“The company is
(putting) retail
marketing strategy
under the same
marketing directors who
oversee brand teams
19
Communications Extends Beyond Media
-10.0%
-15.0%
10.0%
Advertising Growth
5.0%
4.4%
0.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5.0%
-10.0%
10.0%
Advertising Growth
0.0% 10.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Network TV Internet Display
1Q07A
2Q07A
3Q07A
4Q07A
1Q00A
2Q00A
3Q00A
4Q00A
1Q01A
2Q01A
3Q01A
4Q01A
1Q02A
2Q02A
3Q02A
4Q02A
1Q03A
2Q03A
3Q03A
4Q03A
2Q04A
3Q04A
4Q04A
1Q05A
2Q05A
3Q05A
4Q05A
1Q06A
2Q06A
3Q06A
4Q06A
26 Source: MAGNA Global, IAB, BEA
Drivers of Online Spend = Endemics, New Businesses
$10,000.0
Revenues in Millions
$8,000.0
$6,000.0
$4,000.0
$2,000.0
$0.0
Search All Other
or
29
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
30
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
31
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
32
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
PR / Corporate
CEO Communications
Other Corporate
COO
Functions
34
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
35
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
= +
36
Emerging Media Advertising: Sources of Revenue
37
What Have We Learned Today?
We thought we could make
money on the internet
38
Summary
Old Online
Media: Below New Online Emerging
The Line: Media: Display: Search: Media:
Not Led by
Dead Growth Systemic Focus on Niches,
Driver For Limits for Endemics, Small Multiple
Yet, Businesses,
Becomes Largest Most Large Commerce Touch
Advertisers Advertisers Commerce Points or
Digital
Tests
39
Contacts:
www.interpublic.com/news+ideas/research