Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Fernando Martins is a partner with Bain & Company in So Paulo. Juan Carlos
Gay is a Bain partner in London. Both work with Bains Global Oil & Gas practice.
The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of Kusi Hornberger and
Vitor DAgnoluzzo, consultants in Bains So Paulo office, and Luiza Mattos, a
manager in Bains Rio de Janeiro office.
74.3
64.3
60
6%
47.4
40
7%
6%
27%
31%
81.6
7%
24%
22%
20.9
25.9
29.0
24%
32%
31%
56%
59%
60%
51%
52%
53%
2003
Ethanol's share*
2.3%
of world
transport fuel
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2.4%
2.8%
3.3%
4.3%
5.7%
6.1%
6.9%
6.7%
40%
57%
55%
57%
62%
2012
CAGR
CAGR
(0310) (1113)
7%
30%
36%
7%
83.8
36.5
40%
20
79.1
59%
22%
1%
Other
32%
-6%
Canada
31%
7%
China
15%
9%
Europe
44%
-3%
Brazil
15%
3%
US
24%
1%
2013
N/A** N/A**
23.4
6%
20
19.6
7%
17.9
15.2
7%
4.1
2.0
0
2.5
96%
94%
2003
2004
2006
6%
5%
12%
52%
48%
54%
56%
68%
87%
2005
57%
77%
5%
44%
10.4
7.2
6%
24.9
11%
7%
10
23.9
8%
9%
18%
17%
11%
7%
2007
2008
2009
2010
12%
11%
11%
12%
16%
14%
17%
2011
2012
2013
CAGR
CAGR
(0310) (1113)
39%
3%
Other
92%
9%
China
79%
46%
Thailand
N/A
23%
Indonesia
N/A
-17%
Colombia
N/A
1%
Argentina 110%
-35%
Europe
28%
7%
Brazil
N/A
3%
US
58%
8%
Notes: Europe refers to all European states, including non-EU member states; 20112013 percentages are based on data from USDA; percentages for all other years are based
on data from EIA.
Sources: EIA, USDA, Bain analysis
255
Other
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
Average 201213
hydrous ethanol
R$1.116/cubic meter
Mill
105
944
1,420
23
Taxes
SG&A
1,072
Taxes
93
Ongoing Capex
Agriculture
Taxes
SG&A
Cost of
capital employed
Ongoing Capex
SG&A
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture
Land
lease
Land
lease
Land
lease
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Operations
cash cost
Overhead
Taxes
Total cash
cost
Ongoing
Capex
Equipment
Capex
Total
Notes: Assumes mill produces 100% of its crushed sugarcane; does not include potential upsides from co-generation.
Source: Bain analysis
100
80
80
Conventional
Advanced
60
39
40
Cellulosic
20
Gasoline
Corn-based
ethanol
Sugarcane-based
ethanol
The EUs goals are similar to those of the US, but it takes
a less directive and more decentralized approach, allowing
member states to tailor their rules in ways that suit their
domestic objectives and make the policies palatable. For
example, the EU does not specify volume targets, but encourages use of sustainable biofuels that generate fewer
GHG emissions without a negative impact on biodiversity
or land use. Policies vary significantly from one country
to another: Italys biofuel blend targets are only 3.5%, for
example, while in France, they are as high as 7%.
Finally, public support for biofuels has waned. The mandates grew out of a public belief that biofuels were good
business and a way to keep the US competitive and green.
Corn-based ethanol, however, has proven to be less
environmentally friendly than other versions, and production costs are high. The food-for-fuel trade-off has
pushed food prices up, raising concerns about global
food security. For all of these reasons, general public
support for biofuels has weakened and hurt demand.
4
Figure 5: Target mandates for biofuel under the USs Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
RFS volume targets (billion gallons)
40
36
30
30
26
20
18
15
13
Original cellulosic
required (million gallons)
Revised cellulosic
required (million gallons)
3
7
16
11
10
22
2
12
13
14
15
15
15
15
2016
2018
2020
2022
2006
2007
2008
2010
2012
2014
100
500
1,750
6.50
8.65
20*
Starch-based
Cellulosic
Biomass-based
Undifferentiated advanced
Actual consumption
6
5.1
Capacity increase
spurred by legislation
4.8
4.8
3.6
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.0 2.0
2
1.1
Utilization
5.0
4.4
2.9
5.1
1.2 1.2
0.8
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
73%
95%
100%
81%
74%
53%
49%
51%
51%
48%
9.0
9.0
14.9
18.3
18.6
18.6
18.6
Tax on B100
( per cubic liter)
Tax exemption
Actual production
Production capacity
Sources: Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP); International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
The Colombian government established a price stabilization fund that secures the financial sustainability
of local producers by guaranteeing that they could sell
biodiesel at a profit. The price is set to be the higher of
two costs: the cost of locally producing crude palm oil
(CPO) or its substitutes, or importing them from the
international market at the benchmark international
1. The Brazilian Economic and Social Development Bank (BNDES), also known as the Brazilian Development Bank, is a state-owned public company associated with Brazils Ministry of
Development, Industry and Foreign Trade.
2. Aurelie Mejean and Chris Hope, Modeling the Costs of Energy Crops: A Case Study of US Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane, Energy Policy 38 (2010): 547561.
3. MTBE is methyl tert-butyl ether, a gasoline additive used as an oxygenate to raise the octane number.
4. ETBE is ethyl tert-butyl ether, an oxygenate gasoline additive made from ethanol. ETBE offers equal or greater air quality benefits as ethanol, while being technically and logistically
less challenging.
5. Kevin Bullis, The Cellulosic Ethanol Industry Faces Big Challenges, MIT Technology Review, August 12, 2013, http://www.technologyreview.com/news/517816/the-cellulosic-ethanolindustry-faces-big-challenges/.
6. Helena Garcia Romero and Laura Caldern Etter, Evaluacin de la poltica de Biocombustibles en Colombia, Fedesarollo, October 2012, http://www.fedesarrollo.org.co/wp-content/
uploads/2011/08/Evaluaci%C3%B3n-de-la-pol%C3%ADtica-de-Biocombustibles-en-Colombia.pdf
Europe,
Middle East
and Africa: