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2.0ConfidenceIntervals|Statistics

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2.0ConfidenceIntervals
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Let'sfirstreviewthebasicconceptofaconfidenceinterval.
,the
Supposewewanttoestimateanactualpopulationmean .Asyouknow,wecanonlyobtainx

meanofasamplerandomlyselectedfromthepopulationofinterest.Wecanusex tofindarangeof
values:

Lower value < population mean

< Upper value

thatwecanbereallyconfidentcontainsthepopulationmean .Therangeofvaluesiscalleda
"confidenceinterval."

Example:Shouldusingahandheldcellphonewhiledrivingbeillegal?
Thereislittledoubtthatovertheyearsyouhaveseennumerousconfidenceintervalsforpopulation
proportionsreportedinnewspapers.
Forexample,anewspaperreport(ABCNewspoll,May1620,2001)wasconcernedwhetherornot
U.S.adultsthoughtusingahandheldcellphonewhiledrivingshouldbeillegal.Ofthe1,027U.S.
adultsrandomlyselectedforparticipationinthepoll,69%thoughtthatitshouldbeillegal.Thereporter
claimedthatthepoll's"marginoferror"was3%.Therefore,theconfidenceintervalforthe(unknown)
populationproportionpis69%3%.Thatis,wecanbereallyconfidentthatbetween66%and72%of
allU.S.adultsthinkusingahandheldcellphonewhiledrivingacarshouldbeillegal.

Generalformofmostconfidenceintervals
Thepreviousexampleillustratesthegeneralformofmostconfidenceintervals,namely:
Sampleestimatemarginoferror
Thatis:
thelowerlimitLoftheinterval=estimatemarginoferror
and:
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theupperlimitUoftheinterval=estimate+marginoferror
Oncewe'veobtainedtheinterval,wecanclaimthatwearereallyconfidentthatthevalueofthe
populationparameterissomewherebetweenthevalueofLandthevalueofU.
Sofar,we'vebeenverygeneralinourdiscussionofthecalculationandinterpretationofconfidence
intervals.Tobemorespecificabouttheiruse,let'sconsideraspecificinterval,namelythe"tinterval
forapopulationmean."

(1)100%tintervalforthepopulationmean
Ifweareinterestedinestimatingapopulationmean ,itisverylikelythatwewouldusethetinterval
forapopulationmean .Theformulafortheconfidenceintervalinwordsis:
Samplemean(tmultiplierstandarderror)
andyoumightrecallthattheformulafortheconfidenceintervalinnotationis:
t
(
x
/2,n1

s
)

n=sample size
s= sample st deviation

Notethat:
the"tmultiplier,"whichwedenoteast
,dependsonthesamplesizethroughn1(called
the"degreesoffreedom")andtheconfidencelevel(1 ) 100 through .
varyfromsampleto
the"standarderror,"whichis
,quantifieshowmuchthesamplemeansx
/2,n1

sample.Thatis,thestandarderrorisjustanothernamefortheestimatedstandarddeviationofall
thepossiblesamplemeans.
thequantitytotherightofthesign,i.e.,"tmultiplierstandarderror,"isjustamorespecific
formofthemarginoferror.Thatis,themarginoferrorinestimatingapopulationmeanis
calculatedbymultiplyingthetmultiplierbythestandarderrorofthesamplemean.
theformulaisonlyappropriateifacertainassumptionismet,namelythatthedataarenormally
distributed.
,thesamplestandarddeviations,andthesamplesizenareallreadily
Clearly,thesamplemeanx
obtainedfromthesampledata.Now,wejustneedtoreviewhowtoobtainthevalueofthetmultiplier,
andwe'llbeallset.

Howisthetmultiplierdetermined?Asthefollowing"General"plotillustrates,weputtheconfidence
level1inthecenterofthetdistribution.Then,sincetheentireprobabilityrepresentedbythecurve
mustequal1,aprobabilityofmustbesharedequallyamongthetwo"tails"ofthedistribution.Thatis,
theprobabilityofthelefttailis/2andtheprobabilityoftherighttailis/2.Ifweaddupthe
probabilitiesofthevariousparts(/2+1+/2),weget1.Thetmultiplier,denotedt ,isthetvalue
suchthattheprobability"totherightofit"is/2:
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Now,clickonthe"t "buttontoseea"Concrete"representationofthet(14)distribution.Thisisthe
distributionwe'dhaveifoursamplecontainedn=15measurements,yielding14degreesoffreedom
(fromn1=151=14).Ifyourollyourcursoroverthethreeavailableconfidencecoefficients0.90,
0.95,and0.99,theappropriatetmultiplierappears.Welearnthatforasampleof15measurements:
(14)

Theappropriatetmultiplierfora99%confidenceintervalforthemeanist0.005,14=2.98.The
"cumulativeprobability"totheleftof2.98is0.995,andtheprobabilitytotherightof2.98is
0.005.
Theappropriatetmultiplierfora95%confidenceintervalforthemeanist0.025,14=2.15.The
"cumulativeprobability"totheleftof2.15is0.975,andtheprobabilitytotherightof2.15is
0.025.
Theappropriatetmultiplierfora90%confidenceintervalforthemeanist0.05,14=1.76.The
"cumulativeprobability"totheleftof1.76is0.95,andtheprobabilitytotherightof1.76is0.05.
Iftmultipliersstillhaveyoudown,perhapsyouwouldliketoseeandhearachalkandtalk
(/stat501/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat501/files/00review/tmultiplier.htm)versionoftheprevious

discussion.Clickonthe"ChalkTalk"iconontherighttoopenthisaudio/videoexplanation!Itwillopen
inanewwindowforyou.
Itshouldbenosurprisethatwewanttobeasconfidentaspossiblewhenweestimateapopulation
parameter.Thisiswhyconfidencelevelsaretypicallyveryhigh.Themostcommonconfidencelevels
are90%,95%and99%.Thefollowingtablecontainsasummaryofthevaluesof correspondingto
thesecommonconfidencelevels.(Notethatthe"confidencecoefficient"ismerelytheconfidencelevel
reportedasaproportionratherthanasapercentage.)

Confidence
coefficient
(1 )

Confidencelevel
(1 ) 100

(1

0.90

90%

0.95

.05

0.95

95%

0.975

.025

0.99

99%

0.995

.005

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Thegoodnewsisthatstatisticalsoftware,suchasMinitab,willcalculatemostconfidenceintervalsfor
us.Thefollowing,althoughobtainedfromMinitab,istypicalofonesampletintervaloutput:

Inthisexample,theresearcherswereinterestedinestimating ,theaverageforcedvitalcapacityof
femalecollegestudents.Forcedvitalcapacityisameasureoflungfunctionasitistheamountofairthat
astudentcanforceoutofherlungs.
Theoutputindicatesthatthemeanforthesampleofn=9femalecollegestudentsequals3.5556.The
samplestandarddeviation(StDev)is0.1667andtheestimatedstandarderrorofthemean(SEMean)is
0.0556.The95%confidenceintervalforthepopulationmeanis(3.4274,3.6837).Wecanbe95%
confidentthatthemeanforcedvitalcapacityofallfemalecollegestudentsisbetween3.43and3.68
liters.

Factorsaffectingthewidthofthetintervalforthemean
Thinkaboutthewidthoftheaboveinterval.Ingeneral,doyouthinkwedesirenarrowconfidence
intervalsorwideconfidenceintervals?Ifyouarenotsure,considerthefollowingtwointervals:
Weare95%confidentthattheaverageGPAofallcollegestudentsisbetween1.0and4.0.
Weare95%confidentthattheaverageGPAofallcollegestudentsisbetween2.7and2.9.
Whichofthesetwointervalsismoreinformative?Ofcourse,thenarroweronegivesusabetterideaof
themagnitudeofthetrueunknownaverageGPA.Ingeneral,thenarrowertheconfidenceinterval,the
moreinformationwehaveaboutthevalueofthepopulationparameter.Therefore,wewantallofour
confidenceintervalstobeasnarrowaspossible.So,let'sinvestigatewhatfactorsaffectthewidthofthe
tintervalforthemean .
Ofcourse,tofindthewidthoftheconfidenceinterval,wejusttakethedifferenceinthetwolimits:
Width=UpperLimitLowerLimit
Whatfactorsaffectthewidthoftheconfidenceinterval?Wecanexaminethisquestionbyusingthe
formulafortheconfidenceintervalandseeingwhatwouldhappenshouldoneoftheelementsofthe
formulabeallowedtovary.
t
(
x
/2,n1

s
)
n

Whatisthewidthofthetintervalforthemean?Ifyousubtractthelowerlimitfromtheupperlimit,you
get:
s
Width = 2 t /2,n1 (

)
n

Now,let'sinvestigatethefactorsthataffectthelengthofthisinterval.Convinceyourselfthateachofthe
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followingstatementsisaccurate:
Asthesamplemeanincreases,thelengthstaysthesame.Thatis,thesamplemeanplaysnorolein
thewidthoftheinterval.
Asthesamplestandarddeviationsdecreases,thewidthoftheintervaldecreases.Sincesisan
estimateofhowmuchthedatavarynaturally,wehavelittlecontroloversotherthanmakingsure
thatwemakeourmeasurementsascarefullyaspossible.
Aswedecreasetheconfidencelevel,thetmultiplierdecreases,andhencethewidthoftheinterval
decreases.Inpractice,wewouldn'twanttosettheconfidencelevelbelow90%.
Asweincreasethesamplesize,thewidthoftheintervaldecreases.Thisisthefactorthatwehave
themostflexibilityinchanging,theonlylimitationbeingourtimeandfinancialconstraints.

Inclosing
Inourreviewofconfidenceintervals,wehavefocusedonjustoneconfidenceinterval.Theimportant
thingtorecognizeisthatthetopicsdiscussedherethegeneralformofintervals,determinationoft
multipliers,andfactorsaffectingthewidthofanintervalgenerallyextendtoalloftheconfidence
intervalswewillencounterinthiscourse.
1.0PopulationsandParameters
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3.0HypothesisTesting

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