The Explorer Islamabad: Journal of Social Sciences

ISSN: 2411-0132(E), 2411-5487(P)

Vol-2, Issue (1): 27-33
www.theexplorerpak.org

POPULATION GROWTH AND INCREASE IN DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

IN PAKISTAN: A CASE STUDY OF BAHAWALPUR CITY
Lubna Hameed, Dr. Asad Ali Khan
Department of Earth Sciences, The Govt Sadiq College Women University Bahawalpur,
Department of Geography, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur
Corresponding Author;
Lubna Hameed
The Govt Sadiq College Women University Bahawalpur
lubnahameed74@gmail.com
Abstract; The massive use of the electrical energy in the world is for domestic purposes and Bahawalpur
region of Pakistan is not an exception. Population growth and rising standard of living have boosted the rate of
domestic electricity consumption to higher levels. This piece of research work examines the impact of
population growth on electricity consumption focusing on to Bahawalpur City of the Punjab province of
Pakistan. It is based on primary as well as secondary data. For the collection of primary data entire Bahawalpur
city was divided in to five zones and secondary data was gathered from various concerning departments. For
the analysis purpose, regression model has been used. The values showed significant positive relationship
between population growth and massive increase in electronic appliances that have caused drastic change in
domestic electricity consumption. It is suggested ways of improving electricity conservation through concerns
of Government and users.
Keywords: Population growth, domestic electricity consumption, Bahawalpur, electronic appliances, electricity
conservation, Regression model.

INTRODUCTION
It may not be erroneous to state that in this
modern era of electronics, among energy
resources that serve as the backbone of a
country, electricity is at the top of hierarchy.
Globally electricity is the major source of power
that is produced from natural and physical form
of energies. The role of electricity is crucial for
development and prosperity of any nation.
Technological enrichment is taking place
promptly over time increasing the usage of
electricity. Electricity has vital importance in
various fields of life like domestic, commercial,
industrial and agricultural sectors. It needs no
explanation to mention that socio-economic
progress is highly dependent on it. Electricity
infrastructure in Pakistan has passed through
several stages since its birth in 1947. Although,
the production capacity has increased
significantly but not relative to the shooting
demand in residential, industrial, commercial
and agriculture sectors. Pakistan has total area
of 796,095km2. According to world population
data sheet 2013, it stands sixth in the world

with a population size of 199.0 million.The

growing population will use the increasing
number
of
daily
appliances
like
telecommunication appliances, computers,
domestic appliances, transport vehicles, and
medical devices. But in less developed
countries like Pakistan, production is not coping
with the demands. Almost similar trends have
been noted in Bahawalpur City. To investigate
the trends of growing population, increasing
number of electronic appliances, and upward
shooting demand for electricity in Bahawalpur,
this study is mainly aimed at following
objectives;
1. To investigate the impact of population
growth on the consumption of
electricity in Bahawalpur.
2. To highlight the increasing use of
electronic appliances and electricity
demand.
At present, the share of direct electricity user
households in Pakistan is about 42.15 % of the
total.

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In Pakistan energy sector is producing

electricity chiefly from hydel and thermal
power projects controlled by Water and Power
Development Authority (WAPDA) for all of
Pakistan except for Karachi where Karachi
Electric (K- Electric) previously known as
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
supplies electricity for the City of Karachi and
its neighbouring areas.
A large proportion of household energy
consumption in Pakistan is used for stationary
purposes such as heating, washing, lighting,
cooking and other household uses(Dalen and
Larsen 2013). The residential sector in Pakistan
consists of over 24 million households that
account for 20% of the total commercial energy
consumption in the country. Electricity is
available to about 70% of the households, and
accounts for 34% of the total energy
consumption in the residential sector. Thus
domestic sector is the largest consumer of
electricity.
With the load shedding of 16 to 18 hours,
summers became worst for people. Similarly
winters have also not been luxurious as 8 to 10
hours of load shedding is seen.
In this research the focused area is Bahawalpur
City. The purpose of study is to understand how
residential energy consumption affected
economic growth in the region. The rapid
increase in electricity consumption is one of the
most alarming factors in current urban
societies. For this purpose regression model is
used to know about population growth and
increasing
electricity
consumption
in
Bahawalpur City.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Population growth is defined as the increase in
population over a period. It depends on the
balance of births, deaths and migration
(Robinson 2007).
An economic crisis occurred in Spanish
provinces due to high residential electricity
consumption(Blzquez, et al. 2013). Similarly
Pakistan is facing shortfall of electricity in
domestic, commercial and industrial sector.
Electricity infrastructure in Pakistan. He
discussed different phases of production and
demand since independence in 1947 (Ullah
2013). Electricity generation increased radically
but demand exceeded in all sectors i.e. in
residential,
industrial,
commercial
and
agriculture sectors.

A multiple linear regression model and

analyzed characteristics of domestic electricity
consumption patterns in different households
(McLoughlin, et al. 2012). Population growth
along with increasing use of household
appliances, results in high consumption of
electricity at domestic level.
The multivariate electricity consumption in
Pakistan and population growth for 36 years
between
1976-2010.They
discussed
determinants of electricity consumption as a
function of direct foreign investment, income
and population growth and showed that all
these factors have positive relationship with
electricity consumption in Pakistan (Zaman, et
al. 2012).
Domestic demand of electricity in Pakistan is
shooting up. They pointed out that electricity
crises is associated with the widening gap
between production and ever increasing
demand and linked to the increasing number of
consumers and per household consumption.
the effect of electricity use, feedback on
residential consumption with Smart Meters in
Milton, Ontario. Due to electricity crisis, the
provincial government of Ontario adopts a
culture of conservation and is planning to
provide all residential dwellings with new
metering infrastructure known as smart
meters (Robinson 2007).
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The methodological frame work of this research
is focused on the population growth and
domestic
electricity
consumption
in
Bahawalpur City. This paper presents an
analysis of residential sector in Bahawalpur City
and over all increasing trend in the
consumption of electricity. Three types of data
are used in this research through questionnaire,
secondary data of different offices and field
interviews. Entire city was divided into five
zones and 400 households were selected for
interviews. technique for selection used was
method of equal allocation, as it was also used
by (Collomb 2004) population growth and land
use pattern in Bahawalpur also collected the
sample by using equal allocation method. From
each of the following zones 80 samples were
randomly taken.
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
Bahawalpur City is divided into following zones

Tibbah Badar Sher & Shahdra

Inside Fareed gate (Inside City area)

28

Model Town A, B and Hashmi

Garden

Satellite Town
Millat, Trust & Officer colony

Map1: Zones of Study Area in Bahawalpur City

Source: Author, 2015

Absolute growth is the difference in numbers between populations over time.
Population at the end of the period - population at the beginning of the period
Population at the beginning of the period
PGR =
PGR = Population growth rate
Focal area of this research is Bahawalpur City as
it shows rapid increase in population growth
with current estimates of 795,244. High
increase in urban population had been
correlated with natural increase and migration
from rural to urban areas (Robinson 2007).
Bahawalpur City has faced high rate of
urbanization.

Table1: Population (x1000's) of Bahawalpur City

Population
Year of Census
(x1000s)
1951
527
1961
735
1972
1071
1981
1453
1998
2433
2007est
3005
2012est
3337
Source: District Census Report 1998.
MEPCO came into existence in the year 2001
after unbundling of WAPDA system. Earlier, it
was known as Multan Area Electricity Board
(AEB). Its distribution network in the year 2001
comprised of seventy one, 132 kV and thirty
four, 66 kV sub-stations and by the year 2012-

Bahawalpur is twelfth biggest city of Pakistan.

Rapid increase in population showed that the
pull factors of migration are very strong in this
area especially education. People of adjoining
rural areas come to reside here for better
educational facilities. Bahawalpur is peaceful
city with healthy environmental condition. Due
to this reason city expand day by day and
showing
high
population
growth.

Growth rate
.
3.4
3.3
3.67
3.07
2.61
2.20

Inter census Growth

Rate
35.8
39.5
45.7
35.7
67.4
33.5
22.09

13, sixty eight, 132 kV and twenty seven, 66 kV

Sub sub-stations have started functioning in the
area. MEPCO consumers include 87.6%
domestic consumers. It is a large proportion
and depicts that major electricity consumption
occurs at domestic site. 9.72 % is used on

29

commercial basis, for agriculture and tube wells

1.58%, 0.01, 0.03 for industry and bulk supply
respectively.
Historical record of number of consumers
within MEPCO Bahawalpur jurisdiction is given
below. In 2008, 473176 domestic electricity
connections were installed, these domestic
users consumed 1294 million units of electricity
and 12911 million rupees of revenue was
collected by MEPCO. In 2009, number of
consumers increased by 7.03% and consumed
units growth rate was 2.86. During 2010, there
was decline in electricity connections and
reached at 4.75% and growth rate of unit

consumed also decreased to -6.83. During this

period load shedding crises came in entire
country which also affected Bahawalpur. In
2011, there was significant increase in
electricity connections, it was observed that
17.71 and growth rate of consumed units was
9.79. Revenue collected this year was 14684
million of 8.92%. In 2012-2014, number of
electricity connections increased from 647421
to 714043. This also changed amount of unit
consumed from 14421 to 16128, thus
increasing load shedding for approximately 1218 hours and price per unit also increases which
tends
to
less
use
of
electricity.

Table 2: Number of Connections of Electricity in Bahawalpur

Number of
Growth
Units
Growth
Years
Connections
Rate (%)
(Millions)
Rate (%)
2008
473176
--1294
--2009
506421
7.03
1311
2.86
2010
530471
4.75
1221.4
-6.83
2011
624421
17.71
1341.01
9.79
2012
647421
3.86
1289.48
-3.84
2013
680800
5.16
1481.08
14.86
2014
714043
4.88
1481.4
0.03
Source: Regional WAPDA Office Bahawalpur

Tariff
(Millions)
12911
13984
13481
14684
14421
15418
16128

Growth
Rate (%)
--8.31
-3.6
8.92
-1.79
6.91
4.61

In this study, target population is socio economically divided into three income groups that are high
class, Middle class and low class. This section analyzes effects of the households size, income, use of
appliances, behaviors on domestic electricity consumption. Electric appliances play an important
role in our everyday life. Appliances are categorized in five groups Lighting devices,
Lighting devices, domestic use
Lighting devices entertainment and informative appliances,
Domestic use entertainment and informative appliances,
All types of lighting domestic use entertainment and informative appliances.
Figure 1: Comparison of Use of Appliances in Study Zones of BWP
40

37

35

32

32

Lightening Devices

33

32

28

30

26

Domestic, Lightening
Devices

25
20

19

18

20

18

17

15
10
5

10

7
4

11

12

5
3

Millat, Trust &

Officer colony

Tibbah Badar Sher

& Shahdra

0
Inside Fareed gate Model Town A, B
& Hashami Garden

Lightening, Entertainment,
informative Devices

Domestic, Lightening and

Entertainment, Informative
Devices

Satellite Town
Lightening, Domestic,
Entertainment, Informative,
Hot & Cold

30

Source: Author, 2015

The sample consist of 80 residents from each of
the zone and from the data observed that people
living inside Fareed gate use domestic lighting
devices, 32% mostly and 28% informative and
entertainment appliances. Modal Town A, B and
Hashami garden residents use all types of home
appliances and mostly use hot & cold devices
including entertainment and informative
appliances. Millat, Trust and Officers colony
residents use all appliances and hot & cold
devices, residents of Tibbah Badar Sher use
lighting devices mostly, and residents of Satellite
town use all types of devices including hot & cold
devices household electricity use and he also
argued about use of appliances and electricity
consumption has positive relationship (Sovandara
2002).
Electricity consumption increases in Pakistan and
lead to the havoc of energy crises it become first
originated in 2005-06 due to extensive use of
electronic appliances and use of air conditioner is
increasing in middle and high income class. The
fiscal year of 2005-06, approximately 2,250 MW
electricity is required to run 7.7 million electric
appliances in Pakistan. The main cause of
electricity crises in Pakistan is due to industrial

growth and massive use of appliances in

household sector
Due to economic growth, urban areas are facing
rapid increase in living standards. Urbanization
demands comfortable and high standard life style
use of high end electrical appliances compliment
the urban living style. Earlier, electric fans, tape
recorders and monochrome (black and white) TV
sets were icon of luxury but these days
sophisticated, modern and high electricity
consuming devices are in use. Use of appliances
like mobiles, computers, laptops, tablets has
increased consumption of electricity at personal
level. Electricity use has grown continuously as
the income of resident increases.
IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON
DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN
BAHAWALPUR CITY
Measurement of dependence of one variable on
another variable is called regression and the
process of finding the regression is termed as
regression analysis. Value of regression
coefficient may be positive or negative according
to the relationship of dependent variable with
independent variable. The formula used for the
regression
coefficient
is
as
under,

Let Y is the dependent variable depends on X then the linear regression line will be
Y=a+bX
Where a is called regression constant and b is called regression coefficient.

Where a is called regression constant and b is called regression coefficient. Linear regression models
were used in study by assessing the statistically significant variances associated with electricity
consumption.(Laicane, et al. 2014).
Table3: Regression Analysis for Electricity Consumption /Electricity Expenses
Dependent
Std. Error of
Regression
R
R Square
T-Score Sig.
Variables
Estimate
Coefficient
Electricity
0.353
0.125
Consumption
Electricity
0.547
0.299
Expenses
Predictors: (Constant) = Monthly Income
The influence of income on electricity
consumption and amount paid for the electricity

172.06

0.353

7.524

0.000

3903.31

0.547

5.089

0.000

bills. It showed the relationship between the

incomes and other variables. Regression analysis

31

is used to check the dependence of electricity

consumption in units and electricity expenses in
rupees on income level of target population.
Value of R-Square shows the variation in
dependence variables due to income of
respondents. Same as the regression coefficients
for both variables shows the positive relationship.
Significance level (P-value) shows that regression
coefficients are significant at 1 % level of
significance. Where R is the correlation
coefficient and it measures the interdependence
between the variables. Electricity consumption /
income is positively correlated that if one value is
increasing other value also shows the same
trend. Electricity expenses / income also show

the positive correlation that if one variable

increases / decreases other shows the same
trend.
St. Error of Estimate is actually the standard
deviation which shows the dispersion of
electricity consumption for different income
levels around the average income. Value of
regression coefficient for electricity shows that a
change of one unit in income increases the
electricity consumption by the rate of 0.353.
Value of regression coefficient for electricity also
shows that a change of one unit in income in
different income groups increases electricity
consumption
by
the
rate
of
0.547.

Table4: Regression Analysis for Electricity Connections/consumption/ Expenses

Dependent
Std. Error of
Regression
R
R Square
Variables
Estimate
Coefficient
Connections
0.882
0.779
Electricity
0.863
0.745
Consumption
Electricity
0.918
0.843
Expenses
Predictors: (Constant) = Population
The influence of population on number of
electricity connections, electricity consumption in
units, and amount paid for the electricity bills. RSquare and Regression coefficients are calculated
to check the dependence of connections,
electricity consumption and electricity expenses
on population. Value of R-Square shows the
variation in dependent variables due to
population and regression coefficients show the
positive relationship among the concerned
variables. Significance level (P-value) shows that
regression coefficients are significant at 1 % level
of significance. Value of regression coefficient for
electricity shows that a change of one unit in
population increases the electricity connections /
consumption by the rate of 0.882 / 0.863. Value
of regression coefficient of electricity shows that,
change of one unit population in different income
groups increases electricity expenses at rate of
0.918.
Aforesaid discussion proves that population
growth influences consumption of electricity and
has direct relation in case of electricity

T-Score

Sig.

47969

0.882

4.19

0.009

55.00

0.863

3.820

0.012

480.36

0.918

5.174

0.004

connection, billing amount and unit consumed

every year(Dalen and Larsen 2013) studied
residential
end-use
electricity
demand
development over time. Their analysis also
proved that population growth has significant
impact on electricity consumption. In Bahawalpur
increasing population and comforting living
standard of majority of population highlights
direct and positive relation upon consumption of
electricity. An energy crisis is in the dangerous
limit in Pakistan. For the development of country
its very urgent need to overcome this issue
(Alahdad 2012).
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
In this study impact of population growth on the
domestic electricity consumption in Bahawalpur
City has been investigated. Results have been
formulated by critically analyzing collected data.
It is also helpful in predicting futuristic needs in
case of consumption of electricity in Bahawalpur.
Obtained positive values of regression
coefficients for all corresponding dependent
variables, indicate that there is positive

32

dependence of all variables on population

growth. It is concluded and analyzed that in the
coming years there will be positive relationship of
dependent variables on population growth on the
basis of present and previous years collected
data. There is a need to shift countrys policy
from good Government to good Governance.
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2016 The Explorer Islamabad Journal of Social Sciences-Pakistan

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