Daily Morning Report

11th February, 2016

Global Macroeconomic Outlook

Commodity & Currency Outlook

DAX +1.55%

Nikkei
-2.31%

S&P:
-0.02%

Shanghai
-0.63%

SGX Nifty
-0.75%

CMP:
Rs 68.05/$

TGT:
67.35

S1: 67.90
S2: 67.71

R1:68.41
R2: 68.55

CMP:
$1183/oz

TGT:
$1190/oz

S1:1177
S2: 1167

R1:1205
R2:1218

CMP:
$28.59/bbl

TGT:
$29/bbl

S1: 28.17
S2: 27.70

R1:29.07
R2: 30.41

At 8am today

USD opened with a gap

up
and
reclaimed
intermediate uptrend.
Buy on decline, sl 67.97
After making a new 12
month high, gold is now
retracing.
Buy on decline with stop
loss at1165
Crude
Resumed
downtrend as Nymex
trading below $30 mark.
Sell on rise to $29.1,
with stop loss at $30.5.

Major Indices in last 24 hrs

Global Markets at a Glance

Key take away for Indian Markets

European Stocks Snaps 7 Day Losing Streak as Oil

Rebounds : European Stock Markets rebounded from a two
year low Wednesday, as investors picked up stocks beaten
down during a seven session sell offs.
Japanese Stocks Close at Lowest Levels Since 2014:
Shares in Japan stumbled Wednesday, as investors were
concerned about the course of USs interest rate policy & the
health of global banks.
Nifty Ends at 21 Month Low: Relentless selling pressure
sent the market tumbling yet again as it nosedived another 82
points on Wednesday, closing at the lowest level since May
2014.

Dragged by global cues, domestic market cracked

again. Yesterday, market opened with a 30 point gap
down & remained under pressure throughout the day.
Nifty breached 7200 intraday, before ending at 7215,
down 82 points or 1.1%.
All sectoral indices ended in red today. IT & Energy
stocks performed comparatively better.
SGX Nifty is trading at 7195, down 54 points.
Stocks in F&O ban period for 11th Feb 2016
Jindal Steel

Indian Equity Markets Activity Tracker

Volatility Analysis: India VIX

Sectorial Performance (Past 22 days)

FII Inflow Tracker (Trailing 11 days)

(Figures in Rs Crore)

VIX has formed a bottom on weeklies and now

been rising for some times. As of now it is quoting a
new 4 month high which is bearish in terms of
prices.

Greed

Fear

PSU Banking stocks have returned

(-) 22.56% in the same timeframe &
remained underperformer

1. Lupin

1. Idea

Strengthening

2. Sun Pharma

3. Yes Bank
4. Infy
5. Ultratech Cement

Source:

Yesterdays price action was

supported by FII selling of Rs 605
crores. January witnessed a net
FII outflow of nearly 14,000 crores.
Overall, FII figures are portraying
a very bearish scenario

Pharma stocks have been best

performers, giving a net return of
nearly (-) 0.86% in the past 22 days.

Best Long-only
Portfolio

Weakening

2. PNB

3. SBIN
4. Tata Motors

Best Short-only
Portfolio

5. Bank Baroda

Nifty: Facts & Figures

Nifty Put/Call Ratio Feb Contract

There is a steady decline

in number of Puts bought
with respect to Calls.
This suggests that the
current phase of selling
is approaching a climax
zone but a bottom is not
seen as yet
NSE Market Breadth (past 10 days)
For the past few trading
sessions the market
breadth have been falling
consistently. We are in a
matured bear market but
there is no sign as yet of
a primary bottom.
Nifty OI Feb Series (till 10th Feb 2016)

Put

Call

All figures are in 000s

There is significant OI
build up in 7200 Put in
Nifty February series.
This makes it a make-orbreak level for the index
in coming weeks. We do
not see much OI build up
in OTM Calls.

Parameters

Value

Primary Trend

Down

Intermediate Trend

Down

Short Term Trend

Down

50 DMA

7645, declining

MACD

SELL Mode

Resistance

7281, 7342

Support

7190, 7118

Trading Call for 11th Feb 2016

Buy Nifty above 7245, stop 7190, target
7335

Daily Technical Call

Intraday Sell Cipla @
543, stop 551, target 531
Primary Trend is down for JSW Steel
Any pull back will be an opportunity to Sell.

Power Grid is in a primary uptrend and outperforming Nifty

index in bigger timeframe
If it does not fall below 140.50, the pull back is likely over

Positional buy Power Grid

@ 142.10, stop 140.40, target
148.80

Upcoming Events & its Impact

Major Events

Country
1

EU

EURO Group Meeting

(All Day, Today)
NHPI M/M
(7:00 PM, Today)

Canada

US

FED Chair Yellen testifies

(8:30 PM, Today)

US

Jobless Claim
(7:00 PM, Today)

Forecast

Previous

Optimistic

Not Applicable

0.3%

0.2%

Optimistic

Not Applicable

287 k

285 k

Who could get impacted

IDBI Banks raise Rs 1000 crore via bonds to finance

Infra Projects

IDBI Bank

Finlands Nordea buys Rs 75 cr worth stake in Rel

Infra

Reliance Infrastructure

Tribunal stays Competition Commissions fines on

Indigo, SpiceJet

Indigo Air, SpiceJet

Low

Medium

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Bullish

Corporate/Government Events (India)

Impact on Markets

Possible impact on Nifty

Bearish

Indicator

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Bullish

High

Neutral

Neutral

Bearish

Call Performance Review

Date

Segment

Scrip

Call

Call
Type

Entry
Price

Stop
Loss

Target

Exit
price

Exit
Date

1 Feb 2016

Cash

Infy

Buy

Intraday

1151

1128

1188

1 Feb 2016

Cash

SBIN

Sell

Intraday

181.70

184

177.30

2 Feb 2016

Cash

TWL

Buy

Positional

140.70

132

158

Open

2 Feb 2016

Cash

Maruti

Sell

Intraday

4005

4044

3932

Not
Triggered

3 Feb 2016

Cash

Hind Unilever

Buy

Positional

810

796

840

Open

3 Feb 2016

Cash

GIC Housing

Sell

Intraday

222.90

226.30

217

9 Feb 2016

Cash

TV Today

Buy

Intraday

296

290

310

310

9 Feb 2016

9 Feb 2016

Cash

Bombay Dyeing

Sell

Intraday

46.50

48.50

42

47.65

9 Feb 2016

10 Feb 2016

Cash

NTPC

Buy

Intraday

126.50

124

130

10 Feb 2016

Cash

JSW Steel

Sell

Intraday

1012

1025

991

P/L
Not
Triggered

177.30

1 Feb 2016

Profit

Not
Triggered
Target
Achieved
Loss
Not
Triggered

1025

10 Feb 2016

Loss

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