CFRBackgrounders

SouthChinaSeaTensions
Author:BeinaXu
Updated:May14,2014
Introduction
TerritorialspatsoverthewatersandislandsoftheSouthChinaSeahaveroiledrelationsbetween
ChinaandcountrieslikePhilippines,Vietnam,Taiwan,Malaysia,andBruneiinrecentyears,and
tensionscontinuetoescalateinthewakeofU.S.PresidentBarackObama'sannounced"pivot"of
focustotheregion.Ahandfulofislandscomprisetheepicenteroftheterritorialdispute,
makingupanareaknownasthe"cow'stongue"thatspansroughlytheentireSouthChinaSea.
Theregionishometoawealthofnaturalresources,fisheries,traderoutes,andmilitarybases,all
ofwhichareatstakeintheincreasinglyfrequentdiplomaticstandoffs.China'sblanketclaimsto
sovereigntyacrosstheregionanditsstrongresistancetohandlingdisputesinaninternational
arenahavemiredattemptsatresolvingthecrisesandintensifiednationalistposturesinall
countriesinvolved,particularlyVietnamandthePhilippines.Expertssaythepotentialforan
escalatedconflictintheSouthChinaSeawhileseeminglydistantfornowpresentsanongoing
crisisfortheregion,aswellasforU.S.interestsinthearea.
Whatterritoriesareinvolvedanddisputed?
TheSouthChinaSeacomprisesastretchofroughly1.4millionsquaremilesinthePacificOcean
thatencompassesanareafromtheSingaporeandMalaccaStraitstotheStraitofTaiwan,
spanningwestofthePhilippines,northofIndonesia,andeastofVietnam.TheSouthChinaSea
islandsnumberinthehundreds,althoughthelargestandmostcontentiousterritoriesincludethe
SpratlyIslands,ParacelIslands,PratasIslands,MacclesfieldBank,andScarboroughShoal,to
whichallofthesixmajorSoutheastAsiannationslayvariousclaims.Theislandsaremostly
uninhabitedandhaveneverhadanindigenouspopulation,makingtheissueofhistorical
sovereigntyathornyonetoresolve.

Thedisputesaren'tlimitedtoland,howevereachcountryhasanExclusiveEconomicZone
(EEZ),prescribedbythe1982UnitedNationsConventionontheLawoftheSea(UNCLOS),over
whichithasspecialrightstomarineresourcesandenergyexplorationandproduction.AnEEZ
spansoutward200nauticalmilesfromthecoastoftheeachstate'sterritorialsea,andmayinclude
thecontinentalshelfbeyondthe200milelimit.Thesezonescomeintoplayduringdisputesover
seaterritory,asdisplayedinChina'sDecember2012spatwithVietnamoveroilandfishing
activityinthewatersneartheParacelIslands.
Whatisthe9DashLine?

Whatisthe9DashLine?
The9Dashlineisacontroversialdemarcation
lineusedbyChinaforitsclaimtoterritories
andwatersintheSouthChinaSea,mostnotably
overtheScarboroughShoalandtheParaceland
SpratlyIslandsthetwomostimportant
disputedislandgroups.Theline,whichis
contestedbythePhilippines,Brunei,Malaysia,
Taiwan,andVietnam,encompassesvirtuallythe
entireSouthChinaSearegionandcaused
immediatecontroversywhenChinasubmittedamaptotheUNin2009thatincludedthe
demarcation.Beijing'sissuanceofanewpassportinlate2012containingamapofthe
disputedregionbasedonthelinedrewfreshinternationalcriticismandbacklash.
ASEANcountrieshavecontestedthisboundary,butChinahasinsistedonthehistorical
legitimacyofthelinebasedonsurveyexpeditions,fishingactivities,andnavalpatrolsdatingasfar
backasthefifteenthcentury,puttingitatoddswiththeboundariesUNCLOShasenforcedforthe
regionsince1994.
Whatresourcesareatplayintheregion?
Theimmediatesourceofconflictintheregioniscompetitionoverresources,saidDavid
Rosenberg,professorofpoliticalscienceatMiddleburyCollege.Thereareroughlyhalfabillion
peoplewholivewithin100milesoftheSouthChinaSeacoastline,andthevolumeofshipping
throughitswatershasskyrocketedasChinaandASEANnationsincreaseinternationaltradeand
oilimports.Theneedforresources,especiallyhydrocarbonsandfisheries,alsohasintensified
economiccompetitionintheregion,particularlygiventherapidcoastalurbanizationofChina.
"Behinditall,it'sessentiallytheindustrialrevolutionofAsia,"Rosenbergsaid."AndtheSouth
ChinaSeahasbecomethehubofthat."
AccordingtotheWorldBank,theSouthChinaSeaholdsprovenoilreservesofatleastseven
billionbarrelsandanestimated900trillioncubicfeetofnaturalgas,whichoffertremendous
economicopportunityforsmallernationslikeMalaysia,thePhilippines,andVietnam,andenergy
securityforChina'slarge,growingeconomy.InDecember2012,China'sNationalEnergy
Administrationnamedthedisputedwatersasthemainoffshoresitefornaturalgasproduction,
andamajorChineseenergycompanyhasalreadybegundrillingindeepwateroffthesouthern
coast.CompetitivetensionsescalatedwhenIndia'sstaterunOilandNaturalGasCorpannounced
ithadpartneredwithPetroVietnamfordevelopingoilinthedisputedwaters.InJune2011,
VietnamaccusedaChinesefishingboatofcuttingcablesfromanoilexplorationvesselinsideits
EEZ.HostilitiesresurfacedinMay2014,whenChinesevesselsfiredwatercannonsataVietnamese
flotillathatallegedlyapproachedalargeChinesedrillingrigneartheParacelIslands.Therow
affectedVietnam'sstockmarkets,whichplungedaftertheincident.
Smallerscalefishingincidentshaveinsteadbecomethehubofmaritimeconfrontationasdeclining
fishstockshavedrivenfishermenfartherintodisputedareastosearchforsupply,aswellashighly
profitableillegalspecies.Inthemostrecentclash,thePhilippines'navalforcesintercepted
eightChinesefishingvesselsintheScarboroughShoalinApril2012,findingwhattheyviewedas
illegallyfishedmarinelifeonboard.Theattemptedarrestofthepoachersledtoatwomonth

standoffbetweenthetwocountries.
Annualfishingbansandarrestsoffishermenareaconvenientproxyforsovereigntyclaimssince
theycanbepresentedaslegitimateattemptstoenforcemarineresourcesprotection,accordingtoa
reportbytheInternationalCrisisGroup."Thisisanissuethatdoesn'tmakebigheadlines,but1.5
billionpeoplelivethereandrelyheavilyonfisheriesforfoodandjobs,"Rosenbergsaid."That's
wheremostoftheconflictgoeson,andmostofthesehavebeendealtwithonaroutineconflict
managementbasis."
Howdoesthedisputeaffecttraderoutesinthesea?
Asmuchas50percentofglobaloiltankershipmentspassthroughtheSouthChinaSea,
whichseesthreetimesmoretankertrafficthantheSuezCanalandmorethanfivetimesthatofthe
PanamaCanal,makingthewatersoneoftheworld'sbusiestinternationalsealanes.Morethan
halfoftheworld'stoptenshippingportsarealsolocatedinandaroundtheSouthChinaSea,
accordingtotheInternationalAssociationofPortsandHarbors.AsintraASEANtradehas
markedlyincreasedfrom29percentoftotalASEANtradein1980to41percentin2009
maintainingfreedomofnavigationhasbecomeofparamountimportancefortheregion.
"Thisisaveryimportantissue,andhasbecomethemainconcernofJapan,theUnitedStatesand
evenrightnowtheEuropeanUnion,"saidDr.YannHueiSong,afellowatAcademiaSinicain
Taiwan.However,YannHueisaysChinaisunlikelytoinstigateaninterruptionintrafficbecause
itsbusiness,exploration,andimportationrelyentirelyonfreedomofnavigationaswell.Experts
arguethatthemutualbenefits[PDF]fromregionaleconomicintegrationprovideanextremely
compellingincentiveforcooperationonresources,conservation,andsecuritymovements,
accordingtoaHarvardQuarterlypaper.
Whatarethemilitarystakes?
TheregionhasalsoseenincreasedmilitarizationinresponsetoChina'sburgeoningpower,raising
thestakesofapotentialarmedconflictandmakingdisputesmoredifficulttoresolve.Vietnamand
MalaysiahaveledregionalmilitarybuildupsandincreasedarmstradewithcountrieslikeRussia
andIndia,whilethePhilippinesdoubleditsdefensebudgetin2011andpledgedfiveyearjoint
militaryexerciseswiththeUnitedStates.ThePhilippinesalsoembarkedonamodernization
programcostingroughly$1billionthatwillrelyheavilyonU.S.salesofcuttersandpotentially
fighterjets.
"Behinditall,it'sessentiallytheindustrialrevolutionofAsia.AndtheSouthChinaSeahasbecomethehubof
that."DavidRosenberg,MiddleburyCollege

Shipsarecommonlyinvolvedinnavaldisputes,asexhibitedintheScarboroughShoalincidentin
AprilwhenthePhilippinessaiditslargestwarshipacquiredfromtheUnitedStateshada
standoffwithChinesesurveillancevesselsaftertheshipattemptedtoarrestChinesefishermen
butwasblockedbythesurveillancecraft.Theinvolvementofthenavymadepoliticalcompromise
moredifficult,saystheICG.
"There'snothinglikeNATOinAsia,andthat'swhat'sworrisome,"Rosenbergsaid."Unlikethe
UnitedStatesandEU,whichareengagedinotherregionsoftheworld,theSoutheastAsian

countriesarecompelledtospendmoreprotectingtheirmostimmediateinterests.It'snottheCold
Warbyanymeans,butthey'restillnotveryopenwitheachotheraboutmilitarymodernization."
Whatisbeingdonetoresolvethedisputes?
OneofthelargestimpassestoaresolutionisChina'sinsistenceonconductingmostofits
diplomacyonabilateralbasis,wroteCFR'sStewartPatrick.Nationalismhasalsofueledmany
ofthesestalemates.Internationaltribunals,liketheInternationalTribunalfortheLawoftheSea,
areavailable,butnationsuseitselectivelyinlightofthepotentialdomesticpoliticalramifications
ofappearingconciliatory.Chinaalsohasrepeatedlyrejectedthemechanismsforarbitration
providedbytheUN.
AJuly2012ASEANsummitattemptedtoaddresswaystomitigatetheconflictbutendedwithout
producingacommuniqu,whichsomeexpertssayhighlightsthedifficultiesofmultilateral
approachesintheregion.ASEAN'ssixpointstatementinJulymadenoreferencetospecific
incidents,andonlyoutlinedanagreementtodraftandimplementaregionalcodeofconduct,
respectinternationallaw,andexerciseselfrestraint.CFR'sJoshuaKurlantzicksaidinAugust
2012thatwhileASEANwasanappropriatevenuetomediatethisdispute,theorganizationstill
hasnotyetfounditsfootingintransitioningtoa"moreforceful,integratedorganizationthatcan
provideleadership."InaNovember2012IIGGworkingpaper,KurlantzicklookedathowASEAN
couldstrengthenitsroleintheregiontomeetchallengessuchastheSouthChinaSea.
Consequently,jointmanagementofresourceshasbeenwidelyproposedbyexpertsasthebest
waytoeasecurrenttensions,accordingtotheICG.ChinaandVietnamhavemanagedto
cooperateonacommonfisheryzoneintheTonkinGulf,wherethetwocountrieshave
delineatedclaimsandregulatedfishing.However,oildevelopmenthasremainedahighly
contentiousissue,asbothVietnamandthePhilippineshavegoneaheadwithgasexploration
projects[PDF]withforeigncompaniesindisputedareas.
WhatdoesthismeanfortheUnitedStates'pivottoAsia?
TheU.S.pivottothearea,coupledwiththeregion'smyriadconflicts,raisesconcernsaboutthe
futureofU.S.interestsinSoutheastAsia.TheObamaadministrationhasnotonlyworkedto
strengthentieswithASEAN,buthasalsoforgedtighterrelationswithindividualcountrieslike
Myanmar,whereithasdevelopedanewfocusandstrategyofengagement.TheUnitedStateshas
alsorampedupsecuritycooperationwithVietnam,whileMalaysiaandSingaporehavealso
signaleddesireforincreasedsecuritycooperation.
A2012JohnsHopkinspapernotesthatSoutheastAsiahastransformedinthelasttwodecades
toanareawhereChinesepowerandstrategicambitionconfrontanestablishedU.S.military
presence,andwhereaChineseperceptionofthestatusoftheSouthChinaSeaisfundamentally
atoddswithalongsettledconsensusamongmajormaritimestates.
ExpertssaythattheUnitedStatesfacesadilemmaandtoughbalancingactintheregion,assome
countriesinASEANwouldlikeittoplayamoreforcefulroletocounterwhattheyseeasa
greaterChineseassertiveness,whileotherswanttoseelessU.S.involvement.Thepriorityonall
sidesshouldbetoavoidmilitaryconflict,accordingtoBonnieGlaseroftheCenterforStrategic
andInternationalStudiesinthisContingencyPlanningMemorandumevenasChinaspars
withitsSoutheastAsianneighbors,itisbecomingthelargesttradingpartnerandoneofthebiggest

directinvestorsofmostSoutheastAsianstatessinceanASEANChinafreetradeareacameinto
effect.

AdditionalResources
InthisInternationalInstitutionsandGlobalGovernanceprogramWorkingPaper,
JoshuaKurlantzickanalyzesthemajorobstaclesfacingASEANtodayandprescribes
recommendationsfortheboththeUnitedStatesandASEANthatwillenableASEANtofirmly
establishitselfastheessentialregionalorganizationinAsia.
DavidRosenberg'sarticle[PDF]fortheHarvardAsiaQuarterlydelvesintowhat'satriskinthe
SouthChinaSea,includingtheregion'sresourcesprofiles,shippinglanesandfisheries.
TheEconomistdiscussesASEANincrisisandwondersifIndonesiaiscapableofhealingthe
deepeningriftsinSoutheastAsiainthisarticle.
TheInternationalCrisisGroupprovidesanindepthreportontheSouthChinaSeaandits
regionalresponses,examiningwhattheconflictsmeanforeachcountryinvolved,andwhatrisks
andfactorsareatplayforall.
InthisContingencyPlanningMemorandum,BonnieS.Glasersaysthepriorityonallsides
shouldbetoavoidmilitaryconflict,evenasChinasparswithitsSoutheastAsianneighbors.

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