ERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL

SATELLITE SYSTEM

irements Revalidation in Support of JROCM

Nunn-McCurdy Certification

ACATI

Joint Requirements Oversight Council

DOD, DOC and NASA

27 Apr 06

Lt Col Troy Pannebecker

1
UNCLASSIFIED
• NPOESS Overview
• Requirements Parameters
• Baseline Funding
• Causes of Breach
• Cost Drivers and Options
• Operational Environment
• National Security Implications
• Thresholds and Alternatives
• Risks and Impacts
• Recommendation

UNCLASSIFIED

 Mission
0000 L ,~
10 May 94) establishes ~i NPOESS
Mid morning

a national, operational,
biting remote-sensing 1800 L
ty ~.

~.,~
~j
rate new technologies NPOESS
Early morning
SA
~\ .~

ge International METOP 1200 L (~~

<'f
Mid morning
ation NPOESS
Afternoon

UNCLASSIFIED

 • NOAA DUS Commerce For

Executive Committee Oceans and Atmosphere
• NASA Associate Administrator
for Earth Science

)
ary of
(i)
eli
~
' '"
Deputy
"',5;" ~
'E

Under Secretary for

ce Oceans & Atmosphere

Administrator
Program Executive Officer ,
=
Senior Users Advisory

Group (SUAG)

A~"-"··'·"!<-
'. • Chair Rotated Every 2 Years
• Reps: 000, NOAA, & NASA

i~I"~~
:
(i)

.~
'Y{.

q,:.",..,. /l-V
""no'oo System Program Director

•.~'
~,~ (i)
Joint Agency Requirements

Group (JARG)

~M • .

r Associate Director Associate Director

for Technology Transition for Operations
Integrated Program Office User Community and Stakeholders
• Define Requirements

Cost Share with DoD and DoC

4

UNCLASSIFIED
y Morning orbit (0530 I 1730)
sified

Army uses for atmospheric profiles and soil moisture

Morning orbit (0930 I 2130)
sified

Captures primary scintillation region for DoD and DoC

nitializes DoC/DoD atmospheric modeling - forecasts

Provides NASA continuity of climate mission

noon orbit (0130 I 1330)

nitializes DoC/DoD atmospheric modeling - forecasts
Army uses for aviation/UAV planning and severe wx warning
sified
Provides NASA continuity of climate mission

5
UNCLASSIFIED
eric Vertical Greater of 20% or
+1- 30%
Profile 0.2 g 1 Kg accuracy

- Weather forecasting
DOC 1 Navy 1Army
- Ballistic fire support

eric Vertical Clear: 1.6K 1 Km

2.25K - 4.0K
ure Profile Cloudy: 2.5K I Km

- Tactical planning and

(1) Nadir 0.4 km resolution DSMP 0.56 km at nadir mission execution
(2) 75% of revisit times < 4 hours 000 orbits driven by mission Air Force I DOC - ISR support
(3) 6 hours max revisit times needs, not a regular revisit time - Cloud, land, and sea surface
characterization

- Tropical storm prediction

ace 1.0 km cell size at nadir with 8 km resolution with
DOC I Navy - Fleet area defense
ures 0.5K accuracy 1.5C accuracy
- Safety of navigation

Surface skin layer to -0.1cm

Bare scilin regiens with Surface, bare soil - Trafficability
ture Army I DOC
known soil types 10%, Wet I Dry determination only - Flood prediction
0% - 100% measurement range

Speed: 2m/s - Naval flight and surface

ea Speed: Greater of 2m/s or
DMSP cannot sense wind Navy I DOC warfare operations
Winds 10% accuracy
direction - Tropical storm forecasting

capability is defmed as current GFO and DMSP capability, despite shortfalls of the current DMSP system to
ts. 6
S constellation provides required revisit time. UNCLASSIFIED
 -- 60% improvement in weapon platform
and munition selection
-- 20% • 40% increase in kills per sortie
- Enables COCOMs' 5-day advanced planning
cells at same accuracy as today's 3-day
(ATO cyde) accuracy
- Improves 155mm Hov.;tzer CEP by 400m
•• Reduces number of rounds by up to half
- Enables IC to overcome atmospheric
impedence to Mission
- Expands range of supportable missions
(underwater visibility, sand / dust storm
detection, snow field extent under clouds)
- xx% improvement in IC take
(60% global cloud cover)
- Cloud detection improves from 79% to 97%
- Reduces number of fleet sorties
from homeport
- Improved performance of radar and sonar
detection of incoming threats
- Ice edge and concentration identification
- 10-25% imporvement over today's forecast
accuracy for $3T weather sensitive
US industries
- (v.;th other EDRs) $55M/per in US power
generation savings
- (v.;th other EDRs) $10M/per
airline routing savings
- Civil aviation Volcanic ash avoidance
($1 OM/per)
- $1 OOM/yr cost avoidance by fishing and
tourism due to Red Tides
- Reduces costal Hurricane evacuation
by 20% @ $1M per mile (50nm @ 5-day)
- Ocean current forecasts impact on shipping
- Provide critical continuity with ongoing
EOS Global Climate assessment
- Provide critical long term assessment of
Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse effects
- Continue multi-decadal assessment of
ozone dynamics
- Maintain momentum of the President's
Climate Change Science Program
- Maintain US intemational leadership in and
commitment to understanding global
dimate change
Note: all the KPP measurements are required,
often interact with one another, and are
assimilated into higher level dimate change
data records and models

- KnoY.iedge of trafficability goes from 14% to

56% of land mass - Enables prediction of flooding in remote areas
- Ground force vehicle routing increases by 60% - Improves agricultural yield fests
- Enables prediction of flooding in remote areas

- Increases the effective area of

- (v.;th sea v.;nds) $95M/per cost savings
carrier operations • Same as above
to comercial shipping
- Reduces area of required evacuation

Superior Environmental Intelligence

Enables Asymmetric Advantages

UNCLASSIFIED
 near-earth space weather Air Force I DOC dependence on
magnetometer and
parameters space based assets
Aurora Limb sensor

- Determination of ocean
ght 3cm GFO: 3.5cm DOC I Navy currents
- Sub surface warfare

- International Treaty
Total column accuracy of Total column accuracy of Compliance
DOC I DoD
0.015atm-cm 0.015 atm-cm - Near space operational
effectiveness

- Operations tempo and

90 minutes 130 minutes DoD/lC
planning cycles

Two transmission rates from Two transmission rates from - Regional conflicts
0001 DOC
each satellite each satellite - Disaster relief

Coverage from two orbits - Operations in

gery From 3 orbits 000
40 km horizontal resolution adverse weathe r

- Environmental effects on new

weapon systems/expanded
s 55 EDRs 38 EDRs 000 I DOC
mission beyond "weather"
to environment

capability is defmed as current GFO and DMSP capability, despite shortfalls of the current DMSP system to
ts. 8
S constellation provides required revisit time. UNCLASSIFIED
- Attack determination - hostile vs natural events
- Improves geolocation accuracy of emitter sources
- Continuity for sub surface warfare
- New application to weather forecast models
- Emerging mission planning support for near
space / high altitude systems
Reduces cloud analysis / forecast by 15%
Enables use of orbits for IC support
Alleviates need for most DoD direct readout
systems ($1 OOM savings)
Delivers previously discussed NPOESS benefits
to tactical users
- Continues immediate response capability for
contingency / emergency support of tactical forces
- 50% improvement in typhoon rain bands and
storm center tracking
- Improves global monitoring of adverse weather at sea
- Provide sole weather recce of Tropical Storms
inPACOMAOR
- Improved detection of adverse weather phenomena
under cloud cover (60% of earth is cloud covered)
- Move from "Cope and Avoid" to
"Anticipate and Explote" the environment
- Improved capabilities allow DoD electromagnetic
spectrum dominance
- Support of emerging GWOT and strategic missions
- Avoidance of power industry damage / losses
- Protection of $XXB space exploration assets
at $300M / event
- Mission continuity for ocean current
tracking / prediction
- Continuity of use in weather models
- Continuity of Ozone depletion monitoring lAW
- Continued compliance with International data
international treaty
collection agreements
- More rapid warning of space weather radiation, - Enables quicker response for astronaut
communications, and navigation events radiation protection
- Continues service to over 10,000 known - Continues service to over 200 known users of
direct-readout user worldwide high-rate data from NASA Environmental Satellites
- Continues data record for $2B climate change
- Similar to DoD benefit
research mission
- NASA is depending on NPOESS advanced capability
- Improved speed and accuracy of increased
to continue technically advanced environmental
environmental support areas have immediate
observations for Climate change mission,
impact on National Stength and Secuirty
space exploration, and aeronautical development
UNCLASSIFIED

 gacy DMSP and POES end of life

ng thresholds and modifying sensors increases both
and Life Cycle costs

nsor modifications increase schedule risk

rent sensor set, minimum cost approach is to complete

t design, test, and fly what you get

RS, CrIS, and ATMS designs complete

VIIRS EDU in Thermal Vac, first flight unit 95% complete

S design 60% complete - EDUs in production I test
al testing shows good confidence sensors will perform
ch better than legacy sensors

10
UNCLASSIFIED
 2,455.2 635.7 687.2 564.6 463.1 511.8 494.9 154.5 82.5 509.5 6,558.9
2,455.2 660.0 838.3 931.4 972.7 977.2 790.9 676.2 425.7 378.8 9,106.5
0.0 (2~.1) ,(151.1) (IR.8), (109.e) (4t1:4)' (ltli·O) (121.7) (343.~) 130..1 i (~jI41.6)

25.6 32.0 250.9 229.4 103.6 31.6 52.3 725.4

0.0 0.0 48.4 198.5 1,098.6 321.9 5,400.6 7,068.0
25.6 32.0 202.5 30.9 (995.0) (290.3) (5,348.3) .(6,342.6)

2.6 2.3 0.0 0.0 48.8 53.6 238.4 345.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2.6 2.3 0.0 0.0 48.8 53.6 238.4 345.7

138.3 138.3 0.0 124.4 0.0 0.0 373.2 774.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 74.6 76.3 0.0 341.8 492.6
138.3 138.3 0.0 49.8 (76.3) 0.0 31.4 281.6

1,228.3 319.1 349.3 387.2 338.5 388.8 442.8 152.4 85.2 663.9 4,355.5
1,226.9 316.6 337.9 343.9 297.2 373.9 405.9 154.5 82.5 509.5 4,048.7
2,455.2 635.7 687.2 731.1 635.7 762.7 848.7 306.9 167.7 1,173.4 8,404.2
2,455.2 660.0 838.3 931.4 972.7 1,025.6 1,064.0 1,851.1 747.6 6,121.2 16,667.1
0.0 (24.3) (151.1) (200.3) (337.0) (262.9) 215.3) (1,544.2) ~ (8,262.9)
t, .',wn, w'vv,lz;", XiwI• •w' _ , 2 n i t : n ; _ "". , ,ir'F' VJV I.¥ it!\ v: ;'h"ir")1'' V;!\\.
NPP C1 C2 C3 C4· C6 7

NPP C1 C2 - C6 7

w~,~]vj\ IfF .•,v7 .•. . _r,,;W;F2 W47"'" 31;;; v,g;r', ,. ,h i; ••. I'!D
,'r;i v'12!
F ~l':Xi.++ ·,+:1+i;_I._>;.',;:1V 7. vJW1:,fl JWii]t7wii Q;¥ 2hiit:,
j :1'
mate, assumes NPOESS will manage program execution within current funding until FY12
11
IG Estimate) UNCLASSIFIED
ment development for two primary payloads (VIIRS and
which contribute to all 6 environmental KPPs
nance of schedule for operational and science continuity
dition of NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) as risk

uction and close climatology coverage gap

Delays in VIIRS driving delays in NPP readiness

ntial cost increases in bus development
S size and weight increases and deorbit requirement

ve change from legacy bus to new bus

12
UNCLASSIFIED
 $ Millions Prog
Prior FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 ToGo
d) (Then Year) Total
RDT&E 266.3 137.2 168.7 140.9 154.8 135.4 45.6 43.6 1,092.4
Prod 40.7 84.5 101.0 124.8 778.4 1,129.4
RDT&E 157.6 73.5 102.4 107.5 137.1 95.2 58.9 30.9 5.5 36.4 768.6
Prod 57.4 68.0 122.9 750.1 998.5
RDT&E 121.1 86.1 109.7 100.0 93.3 85.8 77.3 48.5 37.9 11.5 771.2
Prod 155.4 490.4 645.8

13
UNCLASSIFIED
perational environment increasingly stringent

s tempo up, decision timeline shorter

eptance / tolerance of collateral damage down

d for intel significantly increased, supporting GWOT

eased focus on WMD

e reliant on Information Superiority

cial to nation's environmental monitoring and prediction

ability that support multiple applications
to nation's climate change monitoring capabilities
mulation of domestic/international environmental policy
14
UNCLASSIFIED
 ring capabilities?

SS lORD II requirements meet the current and future

onal environment capability shortfalls

es in the operational environment reinforce the need for

pabilities represented by the lORD II

No Change to Current Validated Requirements

15
UNCLASSIFIED
?

nmental data is used in everything we do

listic fire accuracy corrections
F deployment, direct action, search and rescue
craft carrier ops, ship routing, anti-submarine warfare
ymmetric weather information advantage
ather system still a myth
nitions selection, delivery system routing, air refueling
mmunication outage predication
E plume dispersion - personnel in MOPP gear
Situation Awareness and protection of space assets

16

UNCLASSIFIED

ed
ed

ed

ed

ws UAVs to perform at edge of operational envelope

icle trafficability and land campaign planning
urate forecasts essential to ATO planning cycle

17

UNCLASSIFIED

 itary Services, to include other federal officials?

and International treaty compliance - Nuclear

oliferation, Limited Test Ban Treaty, SARSAT
er preparedness/response - hurricane tracking,
oes, severe weather, flooding, heat wave, ash plumes
st services - fishing, marine, shipping, airline operations
executing President's climate change research program ­
for long-term, continuous Earth remote sensing data
rs regional events with global impacts such as EI Nino,
leaching, oil spills, biomass burning, etc.
tand effects of solar radiation and energetic particles on
climate and on the health and safety of astronauts

18
UNCLASSIFIED

e capability needs via other means (e.g., other space or

ace platforms, non-NPOESS data collection, commercial
gn sources), at an acceptable level of risk?

ORD II thresholds are still valid and necessary

sting or programmed system of systems can meet the
threshold KPPs
Sea
Moisture Temp Surface
Profile Profile Winds Imagery
I
P
y y y
OP
y

ace platforms cannot provide the necessary global

ge or in-situ measurements of the space environment
19
UNCLASSIFIED
ation capabilities. Include overall and orbit specific impacts
gation approaches to the DOD, DOC/NOAA, and NASA
mental monitoring missions

esponse from all users: cannot tolerate gap in polar data

sified and essential to Army for atmospheric profiles and soil
sture
U) KPPs could be partially met by potential extension of DMSP
sified

U) KPPs could be partially met by European METOP

Afternoon orbit critical to DoC for atmospheric modeling and

A for climate continuity

No other nation operates afternoon polar-orbiter

Data Gap is Unacceptable to User Community
20
UNCLASSIFIED
 uity of legacy capabilities is a higher priority than
g NPOESS thresholds
SS lORD thresholds are correct for what the program
ended to deliver
abilities may not be achievable today and acquisition
ed to spiral to full requirement
imum acceptable requirement is what legacy
vides today
uisition strategy must account for available schedule,

ding and technology to preserve continuity of data

desires opportunity to evaluate impacts of alternatives

ed by IPT #2

21
UNCLASSIFIED
 z b=
I
»
en ~
»
N
N
--c
~ *
~
....
C
en ~
I

I
••

Focused on atmospheric chemistry and physics of increased

aerosol and hydrocarbon mix and concentrations
ide critical long term assessment of Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse
cts
C02 exchange among oceans, atmosphere, and land

tinue multi-decadal assessment of ozone dynamics

Under changing environmental mixes

ntain momentum of President's Climate Change Science Program
ntain US international leadership in and commitment to
erstanding global climate change
Research Approach
uires collecting, assimilating, and modeling climate and
ronmental system behavior to characterize, understand, and
dict phenomenology including highly accurate measure of:
Day/night conversion effects
Annual variations
Decadal cyclical behavior 23
UNCLASSIFIED

 ments
0 orbit is absolutely critical to meeting climate needs
0/2130 orbit is second priority
OESS-class sensors required to maintain continuity of
adal vegetation, land, climate, & imagery records
Neither METOP nor AVHRR can deliver EOS-quality data
records
condary sensors" (TSIS, SESS, APS, ALT, and
RES/ERBS) contribute to climate record creation

24

UNCLASSIFIED
ODIS-class sensor (VIIRS-like) needs to fly on NPP
AVHRR has no capability for satisfying requirements
h Orbit priority for NASA as 1330 and 0930/2130
hest priority is NPP overlap with EOS Aqua (1330); second
rity for similar capability with 0930/2130
AVHRR on METOP does not satisfy requirements and creates
climate record gap wI Terra MODIS
e delay in providing secondary sensors
al development and deferred sensors break NASA climate
sion
a records from "secondary sensors" will have multi-year gap
se sensors have high cost/benefit ratio (relatively low cost but
ential to climate mission)

Essential for President's Climate Change

Research Research Initiatives
UNCLASSIFIED