Charles E. Cook Jr.

It’s Up to You, New York

I n what is surely shaping up to be the most closely watched U.S.

Senate race in history, First Lady Hillary Clinton’s challenge is to reclaim
the ground lost to New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani in 1999. Clinton
began last year with a seemingly comfortable lead in most polls but saw her
margin begin to evaporate in March and now trails the mayor by mid-to-
high single-digit margins in most polls.
What happened? To a certain extent, Clinton may not have really had
the solid lead she appeared to possess at this time last year. Coming out of
the Lewinsky-impeachment ordeal, Clinton was widely seen, particularly
among Democrats and in the heavily Democratic Northeast, as a victim.
Her favorability numbers were running at record-high levels, but regardless
of whether they were real or more a result of sympathy for her plight, they
did not last.
At least in theory, Clinton’s bid for a Senate seat in New York should not
be that difficult. After all, her husband carried the state twice, by 16 points
in 1992 and 29 points in 1996. Although the Empire State does have a Re-
publican governor, George Pataki is the first since Nelson Rockefeller was
last reelected in 1970. Both Senate seats are in Democratic hands, with
Charles Schumer having trounced Alfonse D’Amato 55 to 44 percent in last
year’s Senate race. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by 10
percentage points. In short, this race should not be too hard for Clinton to
perform well in.
In practice, however, Clinton faces a distinctly uphill fight to win her first
elective office. A recent compilation of 12 statewide polls of 7,944 likely
Charles E. Cook Jr. writes weekly columns for the National Journal magazine and
CongressDaily AM, published by the National Journal Group. He is a political analyst
for CNN and the editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based
nonpartisan newsletter analyzing U.S. politics and elections.

Copyright © 2000 by The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Washington Quarterly • 23:2 pp. 235–238.

T HE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY ■ SPRING 2000 235

 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

voters conducted by John Zogby and his firm, Zogby International, between
December 11, 1998, and November 18, 1999, gives a bird’s eye view of the
challenges facing Clinton. The extraordinarily large sample gives the oppor-
tunity to examine and analyze demographic, geographic, and political sub-
groups much more closely than normally possible. Overall, Giuliani leads by
six percentage points, 48 to 42 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
First, look at Jewish voters, who make up 12 percent of the vote. Nor-
mally, Democrats can count on winning 70-75 percent of the Jewish vote in
New York, but among the 932 Jews in the
Zogby surveys, Clinton only tied Giuliani, 44
Clinton faces a to 44 percent. It is true that D’Amato and, for
that matter, Giuliani have always done better
distinctly uphill fight
among Jewish voters than other Republicans,
to win her first but this is clearly a problem for Clinton.
elective office. Exacerbating the situation for Clinton is
that Giuliani also beats her by 19 points
among Catholics, 55 to 36 percent. Catholics
make up 43 percent of the state’s electorate,
and white ethnic Catholics are a huge problem for her because they nor-
mally vote with the Democratic candidate.
Next, look at voters in union households, who make up almost a third of
the electorate. In his 55-44 percent win last year, exit polls showed Schumer
carried union households by 21 points, 60 to 39 percent. Clinton prevails by
only four percentage points, 47 to 43 percent. Given the disproportionate
number of Catholics and other white ethnics in the union vote, and
Clinton’s low ratings in those groups, her low union margin is understand-
able but still a problem.
Now, look at partisanship. Giuliani does much better among Republicans
than Clinton does among Democrats. He beats her soundly among indepen-
dents. Within the 35 percent of the New York electorate who call them-
selves Republicans, Giuliani captures 75 percent of the vote. By contrast,
Clinton carries the 45 percent who are Democrats with only 65 percent of
the vote. The greater number of Democrats would still give Clinton the
edge, except that Giuliani also carries the fifth of voters who are indepen-
dent or belong to other parties by 17 points, 51 to 34 percent.
The estimated percent of the vote that a Republican needs to win in New
York City, an area whose vote translates to between 29 and 31 percent of
the overall electorate, varies from 30 to 36 percent, depending upon how
that Republican draws upstate and in the suburbs. In a typical race, a 64 to
36 percent win by a Democratic candidate in the city would translate into a
50-50 race statewide. With Giuliani pulling 33 percent in these surveys and
Clinton getting 59 percent, with nine percent undecided, he stands now at

236 T HE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY ■ S PRING 2000

 It’s Up to You, New York l

New York State Opinion Polling Data

Group Sample Giuliani Clinton Undecided Net Giuliani
Statewide 7944 48% 42% 11% 6%
Upstate 3400 50% 38% 12% 12%
NYC Suburbs 2271 59% 32% 10% 17%
NY City 2273 33% 59% 9% -26%
Democrats 3586 25% 65% 10% -40%
Republicans 2780 75% 16% 9% 59%
Independent/Other 1569 51% 34% 14% 17%
Age 18-29 1207 42% 50% 8% -8%
Age 30-49 2446 49% 42% 10% 7%
Age 50-64 2112 49% 40% 11% 9%
Age 65+ 2060 49% 39% 12% 10%
Male 3837 54% 36% 10% 18%
Female 4107 41% 47% 11% -6%
<HS Grad 304 35% 55% 10% -20%
HS Grad 1643 45% 43% 12% 2%
Some College 1975 48% 42% 10% 6%
College Grad+ 3299 49% 41% 10% 8%
Born Again 657 47% 44% 9% 3%
Not Born Again 1159 48% 40% 12% 8%
White non-Hispanic 6104 56% 33% 11% 23%
Hispanic 485 31% 62% 7% -31%
African-American 923 8% 85% 7% -77%
Other/mix 237 36% 54% 9% -18%
Catholic 3432 55% 36% 9% 19%
Protestant 2230 47% 41% 12% 6%
Jewish 932 44% 44% 13% even
Other/refuse 1234 33% 58% 10% 25%
Union 2551 43% 47% 10% -4%
Non-union 4681 51% 39% 10% 12%
Income <15K 753 33% 56% 11% -23%
Income 15K-24,999 882 39% 51% 10% -12%
Income 25K-34,999 1042 45% 46% 9% -1%
Income 35K-49,999 1267 48% 42% 11% 6%
Income 50K-74,999 1426 53% 37% 10% 16%
Income >75K 1601 56% 37% 7% 19%
Female work outside home?
Yes 1975 40% 50% 10% -10%
No 1740 44% 44% 12% even
Results of 12 surveys conducted between 12/11/98 and 11/18/99 among 7,944 likely voters
in New York state by Zogby International.

T HE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY ■ SPRING 2000 237

 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

the cusp of what he needs to win, all other areas behaving normally.
In the New York City suburbs, which constitute 29 percent of the vote,
Giuliani dominates Clinton, 59 to 32 percent. If Giuliani gets anywhere near
this vote in November, the First Lady has little chance of victory. In the up-
state region, Giuliani seems to be underperforming, winning only 50 percent
of the vote to 38 percent for Clinton. This could be a function of a prejudice
against a New York City mayor by upstate voters. Generally, a Republican
needs to pull at least 56 to 57 percent of the upstate vote to win statewide.
Simply put, Clinton has two problems. With
the exception of African American voters, she
does not perform nearly as well among the core
Giuliani does much Democratic Party constituencies as she needs
better among to in order to win. Second, among swing con-
Republicans than stituencies (independents, moderates, and sub-
urbanites) that she needs to get to move from
Clinton does among the party base of 42-45 percent to 50 percent,
Democrats. she is woefully underperforming.
According to Zogby, Clinton must do four
things to win. She has to reduce Giuliani’s
margins in the suburbs; Zogby suggested that
she should be able to score some points on education, health care, and other
family issues. Second, she must win the upstate cities. Third, she needs to
drive African American turnout above normal levels, just as Democrats
have in many key races in 1998 and in the Mississippi gubernatorial race in
1999. Finally, she has to hope that Giuliani makes a mistake.
In short, Clinton lost a lot of ground during 1999. The good news for
Clinton and Democrats is that as badly as she is doing among core Demo-
cratic groups, she still only trails Giuliani by single digits. It does not take
much movement among these groups, who almost always vote Democratic,
to put her back in the hunt. Persuading people who normally vote Republi-
can to vote Democratic is hard. Persuading those who usually split their
tickets is also a challenge, just not as great. Persuading those who normally
vote Democratic to return to the fold is not one of the greatest challenges in
politics.
Does Giuliani have an edge in this race? Absolutely. Has he already won
it? No.

238 T HE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY ■ S PRING 2000