REPORT

Effects of climate change on groundwater resources at Shelter Island,

New York State, USA
Daniel J. Rozell & Teng-fong Wong

Abstract Rising sea levels due to climate change are

expected to negatively impact the fresh-water resources of
small islands. The effects of climate change on Shelter
Island, New York State (USA), a small sandy island, were
investigated using a variable-density transient groundwater ow model. Predictions for changes in precipitation
and sea-level rise over the next century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report were
used to create two future climate scenarios. In the scenario
most favorable to fresh groundwater retention, consisting
of a 15% precipitation increase and 0.18-m sea-level rise,
the result was a 23-m seaward movement of the freshwater/salt-water interface, a 0.27-m water-table rise, and a
3% increase in the fresh-water lens volume. In the
scenario supposedly least favorable to groundwater retention, consisting of a 2% precipitation decrease and 0.61-m
sea-level rise, the result was a 16-m landward movement
of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.59-m watertable rise, and a 1% increase in lens volume. The
unexpected groundwater-volume increase under unfavorable climate change conditions was best explained by a
clay layer under the island that restricts the maximum
depth of the aquifer and allows for an increase in freshwater lens volume when the water table rises.

Received: 24 August 2009 / Accepted: 17 May 2010

Published online: 23 June 2010
# Springer-Verlag 2010
D. J. Rozell ())
New York Department of Environmental Conservation,
50 Circle Rd, Stony Brook,
NY 11790, USA
e-mail: djrozell@gw.dec.state.ny.us
Tel.: +1-631-4440220
T.-f. Wong
Department of Geosciences,
Stony Brook University (SUNY),
255 Earth and Space Sciences Building, Stony Brook 11790,
NY, USA
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Keywords Climate change . Coastal aquifers . Salt-water/

fresh-water relations . USA

Introduction
Sea-level rise is one of the most often cited effects of
anthropogenic climate change. Rising sea levels around
the world have been documented over the last half century
and as global warming continues over the next century,
mean sea levels will continue to rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that by
2099, average sea level will rise by 0.180.59 m for all
future human activity scenarios (Meehl et al. 2007).
Rising sea levels are of particular concern to small islands
because of their limited ability to store fresh water in the
form of surface streams, lakes and groundwater (Pelling
and Uitto 2001; White and Falkland 2010).
Previous studies investigating salt-water intrusion of
coastal aquifers due to sea-level rise include Tiruneh and
Motz (2003) and Werner and Simmons (2009). Masterson
(2004) models the effects of sea-level rise on four freshwater aquifers in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. A rising
sea level in the model simulations causes water tables to
rise, stream ows to increase, a decrease in the depth of
fresh-water/salt-water interfaces, and the thinning of the
fresh-water lens in the aquifers. A subsequent study by
Masterson and Garabedian (2007) uses a simplied
hypothetical model with conditions similar to Cape Cod
to show that a 2.65 mm/year sea-level rise between 1929
and 2050 causes a fresh-water lens thickness decrease of
2% away from streams and 2231% near streams.
The intent of this study is to further investigate the
relationship between climate change and salt-water intrusion in a small sandy island aquifer. This study applies two
climate-change scenarios, based on the IPCC 2007 report,
to a simple variable density nite-difference groundwater
ow model of Shelter Island, State of New York (NY),
USA. The resulting movement of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface is used to estimate changes in the fresh groundwater system. While similar studies (Masterson and
Garabedian 2007) have investigated sea-level rise, this
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study also includes estimated changes in precipitation

which have a substantial inuence on aquifer conditions.
Likewise, although the hydrogeologic conditions of Long
Island are similar to Cape Cod (Schubert 1999), the Shelter
Island study includes a bottom-restricted aquifer which has
a unique effect on aquifer behavior.

Study area
Shelter Island is located at the eastern end of Long Island
(Fig. 1). It has an area of 31 km2 and, like many small
islands, has very little fresh surface water (Soren 1978).
The inhabitants are dependent on the islands fresh-water
aquifer as a source of potable water.
The hydrology of Long Island was rst described by
Veatch et al. (1906). More extensive hydrology studies
were subsequently conducted by Cohen et al. (1968),
Franke and McClymonds (1972), and Nemickas et al.
(1989). In a hydrogeologic investigation of Shelter Island
conducted by Soren (1978), fresh groundwater was found
to be restricted to a thin geological layer known as the
Upper Glacial aquifer which was susceptible to salt-water

intrusion. The Upper Glacial is composed of upper

Pleistocene glacial drift deposits that are primarily outwash sand and gravel along with clay, silt, and cobbles
less than 15 cm in diameter. The drift is stratied and
poorly-to-moderately sorted. A Pleistocene marine unit of
gray and green clay underlies the entire island at a depth
ranging from 20 to 30 m below sea level. The Pleistocene
marine unit marks the lower boundary of the fresh-water
aquifer (Soren 1978). Figure 2 shows a vertical section of
the proposed hydrogeologic conditions.
Although northern sections of the island have elevations over 30 m, the water table rarely exceeds 1.5 m
above sea level. Likewise, the few ponds and marshes
form primarily in depressions less than 1.5 m above sea
level. There are no signicant streams on the island. The
position of the marine clay layer beneath Shelter Island
deforms the islands fresh-water lens (Fig. 3), preventing
upconing, but increasing the lateral movement of salt
water within the Upper Glacial aquifer. Thus, the saltwater interface deviates substantially from the GhybenHerzberg approximation (Simmons 1986).
A groundwater budget performed by Schubert (1998)
determined that groundwater discharge from Shelter Island

Fig. 1 Water-table contour map of Shelter Island. The model is based on transect CC (modied from Schubert 1999)
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Fig. 2 Cross section CC from Fig. 1 (modied from Schubert 1999)

to the surrounding Peconic Bay averages 48,700 m3/day.

The rate is based on land use and pumping data from
1994 and precipitation data from 1959 to 1994. Watertable mapping indicates that the islands irregular water
table has two mounds that mimic the islands topography
and that groundwater generally ows radially outward to
the surrounding shoreline (Fig. 1). In a study by Paulsen
et al. (2004), eld measurements of submarine groundwater discharge into West Neck Bay ranged from 0.02 to
2.3 m/day depending on location and tide. A borehole
90 m inland from West Neck Bay found the fresh-water/
salt-water interface 20 m below sea level, with ne sand
from the surface to 30 m below sea level, and marine
gray clay below 30 m.
Schubert (1999) created a MODFLOW (Harbaugh et
al. 2000) groundwater ow model for Shelter Island
simulating a two-dimensional vertical section across
Shelter Island in order to determine groundwater distribution, ow paths, and groundwater travel time. Borehole
data were used to map the hydrogeologic characteristics of
the vertical section (Fig. 2). Schubert (1999) found that
almost all recharge left the groundwater system as shoreline underow with an average ow age of less than

20 years and almost all ow less than 50 years. The small

amount of ow that traveled through the Pleistocene
marine clay layer and emerged as sub-sea underow had
an average age of about 1,800 years.
Shelter Islands population was 2,228 in 2000 (US
Census Bureau 2001) but summer seasonal population can
exceed 10,000 (Simmons 1986). In 1983, by which time
the population had stabilized, it was estimated that the
total annual pumping for the island was approximately
2,700 m3/day (Simmons 1986). According to Franke and
McClymonds (1972), about 85% of public water pumped
is returned to groundwater in sections of Long Island
without sewers. Only a small portion of Shelter Island has
sewers and most water returns relatively close to where it
was pumped (Schubert 1998). Assuming an 85% return
rate, only 405 m3/day is lost to pumping. The only
appreciable non-residential water use on Shelter Island is
agricultural withdrawal which is estimated at 130 m3/day
(Schubert 1998). Together these pumping rates are
approximately 1% of the estimated 48,700 m3/day
(Schubert 1998) of submarine groundwater discharge for
the island. Thus, the average pumping rate currently has a
minor effect on the islands aquifer.
Because there are no signicant streams on Shelter
Island, precipitation that is not lost to evapotranspiration
becomes recharge to the aquifer (Soren 1978). The climate
of Shelter Island is classied as humid subtropical (Kottek
et al. 2006) and precipitation is evenly distributed
throughout the year (Nemickas and Koszalka 1982).
However, measurements of chloride concentration by
Simmons (1986) showed that the salt-water zone of
diffusion moves seasonally. The water table is highest in
early spring and lowest at the end of summer when some
near-shore areas have less than 6 m of fresh water below
them. Additionally, it was found that monthly variations in
precipitation affected water-table uctuations more than
any climatic trends between 1974 and 1983. Miller and
Frederick (1969) determined that the mean annual
precipitation for Long Island was between 114 and 119
centimeters (cm). The Thornthwaite and Mather (1957)
water balance method was used by Bart et al. (1976) to
determine that evapotranspiration for the south fork of
Long Island from 1930 to 1975 ranged from 41.7 to
62.5 cm with an average of 58.9 cm. According to

Fig. 3 Diagram of a a typical sandy island aquifer that follows the Ghyben-Herzberg approximation and b Shelter Islands aquifer where
the fresh-water lens is deformed by a clay layer. In both cases, z is the depth of the lens below sea level and h is the height of the water-table
above sea level
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Nemickas and Koszalka (1982), the average rate of

evapotranspiration on Long Island is 50%, and the rate
of overland runoff is 1%. Peterson (1987) also used a
recharge rate of 50% as a good approximation. However,
Steenhius et al. (1985) suggested an alternative method
using a recharge rate between 75 and 90% from October
15 to May 15 and a recharge rate of 0% for the warmer
summer months when evapotranspiration equals or
exceeds precipitation.
Soren (1978) determined that Shelter Island sand has a
horizontal hydraulic conductivity between 60 and 80 m/day.
According to Smolensky et al. (1989), Long Island sand has
a horizontal hydraulic conductivity of 80 m/day with an
anisotropy ratio of 10:1. The Pleistocene Smithtown Clay
on central Long Island has a vertical hydraulic conductivity of 0.010.02 m/day (Misut and Feldman 1996).
Effective porosity is estimated to be an average of 30%
(Franke and McClymonds 1972; Soren 1978). A study of
the North Fork of Long Island by Schubert et al. (2004)
used a horizontal hydraulic conductivity of 60 m/day for
upper glacial outwash, a horizontal hydraulic conductivity
of 25 m/day for upper glacial moraine, an anisotropy ratio
of 10:1, and a vertical hydraulic conductivity for conning
units of 0.1 m/day.

Model description
A variable-density nite-difference groundwater ow
model was created for Shelter Island using the US
Geological Survey (USGS) program SEAWAT (Guo and
Langevin 2002; Langevin and Guo 2006) which was
derived from MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh
1988; Harbaugh et al. 2000) and MT3DMS (Zheng and
Wang 1998), a solute transport application.
The model consisted of a cross-sectional area 37 m
(120 ft) deep and 4,877 m (16,000 ft) wide cutting east
west across the island (Fig. 4). The model grid consisted
of 16 vertical layers, each 2.3 m (7.5 ft) thick, starting
from 1.5 m above mean sea level to 35.3 m below sea
level to the top of the Pleistocene marine clay layer below
which groundwater ow was believed to be negligible
(Schubert 1999). The horizontal grid spacing ranged from
122 m (400 ft) off shore and inland to 15 m (50 ft) near
the fresh-water/salt-water interface (Fig. 4).

Model boundary conditions were based on the ndings

of Schubert (1999). The Pleistocene marine clay layer was
set as a no-ow boundary to represent the bottom of the
model. The salt water surrounding Shelter Island provided
a constant head source or sink for any salt-water ow
caused by movement of the salt-water/fresh-water interface. The water-table surface acted as the recharge
boundary. The fresh-water/salt-water interface acts as a
nearly impermeable boundary that moves under prevailing
hydrologic conditions and discharge occurs near shore as
submarine groundwater seepage (Schubert 1998). The
edges of the fresh-water lens were initially delineated by
the salt concentration in each cell. Fresh-water cells had a
salt concentration of less than 0.25 kg/m3 (Simmons 1986)
and saline groundwater cells were set to 34.9 kg/m3
(Masterson 2004). The difference between mean sea level
and the National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD) of
1929 was determined to be 0.12 m based on readings
obtained from local tidal measurement stations (Schubert
1999).
Four hydrogeologic units were represented in the
model (Fig. 4): (1) a poorly sorted mixture of clay, silt,
sand, and gravel referred to as till, (2) upper glacial aquifer
moraine and outwash, (3) a sand clay unit, and (4) a
Pleistocene marine clay unit. Initial parameters were based
on ndings by Schubert (1999) and calibrated results are
shown in Table 1.
In order to maintain model simplicity, several assumptions were made. First, it was assumed that diffusion
played a minor role in the long-term movement of the
fresh-water/salt-water interface. Molecular diffusion is
proportional to the concentration gradient and the velocity
of the diffusive particles which, in turn, is primarily
dependent on temperature, particle size, and uid viscosity
(Bird et al. 1960). Since none of these characteristics, with
the minor exception of temperature, should change within
the study period, diffusion was ignored. Similarly, transverse mechanical dispersion was not used because the
model was two-dimensional and solute concentrations
were assumed to be uniform perpendicular to the crosssection of the model.
Most importantly, because this study was concerned
with the long-term movement of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface, the daily and seasonal movement of the interface
and the additional mixing it causes was not considered.
Simmons (1986) observed that the interface moves with

Fig. 4 SEAWAT model created for cross-section CC'. Salt-water concentrations are 34.9 kg/m3 and the marine clay unit is inactive
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Table 1 Parameters used for each geologic unit in the model. Hydraulic conductivities varied slightly at borders between hydrogeologic units
Layer

Till
Moraine and outwash
Sandy clay
All Layers

Horizontal
conductivity
(m/day)
18
100
12

Vertical
conductivity
(m/day)
1.8
10
0.12

Effective porosity
Specic storage
Specic yield

30%
3105 m1
0.25

the seasons and varying recharge. So it is important to note

that the simulated movements of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface were long-term averages that marked the new
baseline from which regular season variability uctuated.
Accounting for both annual and seasonal variation in
recharge was beyond the scope of the long-term study,
especially considering that future climate change will have
uncertain effects on extreme weather events and cycles.
Thus, the 50% average recharge rate approximation
(Nemickas and Koszalka 1982) was used for all simulations.

Calibration
Wells shown in Fig. 2 were used to calibrate the models
hydraulic conductivities. Calibration was performed for
March 1995 during which water levels were approximately
24% below long-term averages due to low recharge in
1994, which was 26% below average. Therefore, the model
was calibrated using March 1995 well-head levels and a
recharge of 50% of 1994 precipitation. Initial head
conditions were set at 1.5 m for all variable-head cells.
The transient SEAWAT model reached full steady-state
equilibrium conditions within 20,000 days (approximately
55 years) which agreed with the ow path estimates of
Schubert (1999). Compared to well-head observations, the
calibrated model had a mean absolute error of 0.07 m.

Validation
Validation of the calibrated model was performed using
additional well-head data obtained from the Suffolk
County Department of Health which regularly monitors

two of the wells used: well 51172 and well 51179 (Fig. 2).
Upon review of the well-head data and precipitation
records (Misut et al. 2003), it was apparent that years
1994 and 1995, when the model was calibrated, were
below the long-term precipitation average. However, 1996
was an above average year with a total precipitation of
143 cm. To test whether the model would correctly
respond to a substantial perturbation of recharge, a
simulation was run with 1994 (86 cm of precipitation) as
the initial recharge followed by 1996 (143 cm of
precipitation), a higher recharge year. The 1996 results
were then compared to the two well-head observations
from March of 1997 in order to consistently use readings
from the same time of year with a 1-year delay. Compared
to the calibration, the validation simulation absolute error
increased from 0.08 to 0.20 m for well 51172. For well
51179, the simulation absolute error increased from 0.05
to 0.21 m. Given that the seasonal well-head data in 1997
ranged by 0.28 m for well 51172 and 0.68 m for well
51179, the results were reasonable.

Climate change simulations

The IPCC sea-level rise predictions to the year 2099 range
from 0.18 to 0.59 m for all future human activity scenarios
(Meehl et al. 2007). The effective precipitation predictions
over the same time period range from 2 to 15% for the
median, most likely human activity scenario in eastern
North America (Christensen et al. 2007). Actual precipitation is expected to be higher but is offset by an increase
in evaporation caused by higher temperatures.
Scenario 1. Because the model calibration used recharge
from a below average precipitation year, a
current baseline run was conducted using a
long-term average annual precipitation of
112 cm (Miller and Frederick 1969) which
yielded a recharge rate of 1.53 mm/day using a
50% recharge assumption. All other parameters
were unchanged.
Scenario 2. The second simulation was a scenario where
the effects of climate change were mild with
respect to groundwater resources; precipitation increased 15% and sea level rose only
0.18 m (0.6 ft). This represented the maximum predicted increase in precipitation

Fig. 5 Calibrated model hydraulic head levels

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Fig. 6 Calibrated model salt concentration from fresh water to seawater

coupled with the minimum predicted sealevel rise of the 2007 IPCC report. The
constant head cells around the island were
increased from 0.12 to 0.3 m and the recharge
rate was increased from 1.53 to 1.76 mm/day.
All other parameters were unchanged.
Scenario 3. The third simulation was a scenario where the
effects of climate change were severe with
respect to groundwater resources; precipitation decreased 2% and sea level rose 0.61 m
(2 ft). This represented the approximate
maximum predicted decrease in effective
precipitation coupled with the maximum
predicted sea-level rise of the 2007 IPCC
report. The constant head cells around the
island were increased from 0.12 to 0.73 m
and the recharge rate was decreased from 1.53
to 1.50 m/day. All other parameters were
unchanged.

Results
The hydraulic head levels for the calibrated model are
shown in Fig. 5, the salt-water/fresh-water interface in
Fig. 6, the velocity vector eld in Fig. 7, and the simulated
ow path lines in Fig. 8. The model ow results (Figs. 7
and 8) are in general agreement with previous work by
Paulsen et al. (2004) that found groundwater seepage
fronts below sea level near the shoreline, often visible at
low tide, were responsible for most of the discharge of the
aquifer. At the area of maximum submarine groundwater
discharge (SGD; Fig. 8), the model calculated a discharge

of 0.015 m/day into West Neck Bay. The modeled SGD

was at the low end of the discharge range of the Paulsen et
al. (2004) ndings of 0.022.3 m/day. This is to be
expected given that the model was calibrated during a
period of low recharge. However, it should also be noted
that, because submarine groundwater discharge is highly
dependent on recharge, comparing discharge in different
years or seasons is difcult.
The results of the climate-change simulations for the
West Neck Bay side of the model (Fig. 1) are shown in
Fig. 9. In order to investigate the effects on potable water
resources, the inner edge of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface was dened as 0.25 kg/m3 which is 50% of the
US National Secondary Drinking Water Standards suggested maximum total dissolved solids concentration of
500 mg/L (NSDWS 2002). Compared to the current longterm average fresh-water/salt-water interface position,
scenario 2 created an interface that moved further seaward
by an average of 23 m and a maximum of 60 m near the
bottom of the interface. Conversely, scenario 3 created an
interface that moved landward by an average of 16 m and
a maximum of 37 m. The interface at the Coecles Inlet
side of the model (Fig. 1) showed similar results. Movement of the interface was measured as a horizontal shift
from the long-term average within the model grid and not
as a displacement perpendicular to the interface. The outer
edge of the fresh-water/salt-water interface (Fig. 9) was
dened as 32 kg/m3. Figure 9 shows that the zone of
diffusion shifted with changes in sea level and recharge
but without appreciable overall variation in its average
thickness. For scenario 2, the water table rose by an
average of 0.27 m and maximum of 0.34 m. For scenario
3, the water table rose by an average of 0.59 m and
maximum of 0.62 m.

Fig. 7 Relative velocity vector eld for the calibrated model. The arrow size in each cell is proportional to the ow velocity and points in
the direction of ow
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Fig. 8 Flow path lines for the calibrated model. Area of maximum submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in West Neck Bay which
occurs 800 m from the west end of the model grid

For the cross-section of Shelter Island used in this

study, the original volume of fresh water, assuming a 1-mthick vertical slice, was approximately 78,000 m3. For
scenario 2, mild effects, the fresh-water volume of the
cross-section increased by approximately 2,400 m3. This
3% increase in fresh-water volume was caused by a watertable rise which contributed 1,000 m3 and the outward
movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface which
contributed 1,400 m3. For scenario 3, severe effects, the
fresh-water volume of the cross-section still increased by
1,100 m3. This 1% increase in fresh-water volume was
caused by the water-table rise which contributed 2,000 m3
and the inward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface which decreased the fresh-water volume by
900 m3.

Discussion
The predicted movement of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface agreed with the conceptual model of Simmons
(1986). The marine clay unit restricted the movement of
the bottom of the fresh-water lens and only the sides
moved landward or seaward in response to hydrological
conditions. This restricted bottom appeared to be very

Fig. 9 Position of the fresh-water/salt-water interface in West

Neck Bay. The seawater interface is dened as a salt concentration
of 32.0 kg/m3 and the potable water interface is dened as a salt
concentration 0.25 kg/m3. MSL mean sea level for 2007
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important to Shelter Islands response to climate change.

Fetter (1972) created an analytical solution for an
unrestricted fresh-water lens underlying an oceanic island
(Fig. 3). The cross-sectional water-table prole for an
innite-strip island is described as:
h
i.
h2 w a2  a  x2 K 1 G
where w is the rate of recharge, 2a is the width of the
island, h is the water table head, x is the distance from the
shoreline, K is the average hydraulic conductivity, and G
is the dimensionless ratio of fresh-water and salt-water
density: f/(sf ). According to the Fetter (1972)
solution, head levels in an unrestricted island aquifer
should change proportional to the square root of any
change in recharge. Because the fresh-water lens volume
should change approximately linearly to head levels, any
changes in lens volume should also be proportional to the
square root of any change in recharge.
If the Shelter Island aquifer behaved as an idealized
unrestricted aquifer, sea-level rise would have negligible
impact on lens volume as long as the water table did not
exceed ground level and shoreline inundation was
minimal. A rising sea level would cause the fresh
groundwater lens to oat higher while maintaining the
lens shape dictated by the Ghyben-Herzberg relationship.
Meanwhile, a 15% recharge increase would increase
heads, relative to sea-level rise, and lens volume by the
square root of the 15% increase or 7.2%. Likewise, a 2%
recharge decrease would decrease heads, relative to sealevel rise, and lens volume by 1.0%. However, in the
scenario with 0.18 m sea-level rise and 15% increase in
recharge, the heads increased 8.5%, but the volume only
increased by 3%. In the scenario with 0.61 m sea-level rise
and 2% decrease in recharge, the heads decreased 1.9%
relative to sea level, but the volume still increased by 1%.
In each scenario, the head levels and water table
responded as expected, but the change in lens volume
did not. These discrepancies are best explained by the
inuence of the marine clay unit that restricts the bottom
of the Shelter Island aquifer.
As sea level rises, the water table rises concurrently
and the effective volume of the fresh-water lens increases
because less of the standard lens shape of an island aquifer
is obstructed by the marine clay unit (Fig. 3). This
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explains why the least favorable climate-change scenario,

despite a decrease in recharge, still resulted in an increase
in lens volume. It appears that sea-level rise is less
detrimental to Shelter Island compared to typical sandy
islands in the sense that it could actually increase freshwater resources as long as shoreline inundation is
minimal.
In the case of the most favorable scenario where
recharge increased 15%, the lens volume did not increase
by the expected 7.2% because the restrictive clay unit
prevents the bottom of the lens from expanding along with
the sides. The result was a mere 3% increase in volume. In
general, any increases in recharge will have a smaller
benet than normally expected because of the marine clay
layers limiting effect on the storage capacity of the
aquifer.
The Masterson and Garabedian (2007) study found a
slight to moderate decrease in fresh-water lens thickness
due primarily to stream loss, but Shelter Island has no
notable streams that intersect the water table. An analytical study, by Werner and Simmons (2009), also found
that constant head aquifers, approximated by aquifers with
substantial intersecting streams, experience more severe
salt-water intrusion than aquifers with a constant ux.
Thus, the results of this study are more in line with the
Theiler and Hammar-Klose (2000) assessment of coastal
aquifers that are relatively immune to salt-water intrusion
caused by sea-level rise.
The estimates of changes in fresh-water lens volume
have additional uncertainty because the model did not
consider surface topology and the landward movement of
the shoreline that would occur as rising sea level inundates
the coast. As previously noted, low lying areas that are
likely to be inundated or intersect with the rising water
table will experience more fresh-water loss. For the crosssection modeled in this study (Fig. 2), assuming a
stationary shoreline simplied modeling while introducing
an acceptably small error. According to the USGS Topographic Quadrangle Map for Greenport, NY, the 2-m
elevation contour is within 10 m of the shore for the study
cross section and within 50 m of the shore for almost the
entire island. Because most of Shelter Island is at least 5 m
above NGVD, the results of the study can be generally
applied to the rest of Shelter Island. Thus, it is expected
that the fresh-water lens under Shelter Island will remain
largely intact over the next century.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report sea-level-rise
predictions may be conservative. Horton et al. (2008) have
used a semi-empirical method to estimate a new range of
likely sea-level-rise estimates for 2100 that range from
0.47 to 1.00 m. Meanwhile, Pfeffer et al. (2008) have
estimated a reasonable worst-case sea-level rise that
includes rapid deglaciation mechanisms not accounted
for by the IPCC report. The estimate ranges from a 0.8
2.0 m mean sea-level rise by 2100. However, even with a
sea-level rise more than three times higher than the IPCC
estimates, given the elevation of Shelter Island, only a
small portion of the island should experience inundation
and salt-water intrusion.
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Conclusion
In order to quantify the effects of climate change on a
small sandy island, a variable-density transient-groundwater-ow model was created for Shelter Island, NY,
USA. The 2007 IPCC report predictions for changes in
precipitation and sea-level rise over the next century were
used to create two future climate scenarios. A scenario
most favorable to groundwater retention consisting of a
predicted precipitation increase of 15% and a sea-level
rise of 0.18 m was compared to the current long-term
average. This resulted in a seaward movement of the
fresh-water/salt-water interface by an average of 23 m and
a maximum of 60 m. The water table rose by an average
of 0.27 m. A scenario least favorable to groundwater
retention, consisting of a predicted precipitation decrease
of 2% and a sea-level rise of 0.61 m, was compared to the
current long-term average. This resulted in a landward
movement of the interface by an average of 16 m and a
maximum of 37 m. The water table rose by an average of
0.59 m. The estimated change in fresh-water resources
ranged from an increase of 1 to 3%. The discrepancy in
expected changes in fresh-water lens volume was best
explained by the restrictive marine clay unit which
deforms the aquifer underlying Shelter Island. Although
it would be reasonable to assume that the severe
conditions would decrease the available fresh water
because the fresh-water/salt-water interface moves landward, the loss caused by this movement is more than
compensated for by the increased lens thickness resulting
from a rising water table. While a relatively at low-lying
island with a water table already close to the topographical
surface would lose fresh-water resources due to climate
change, an island with high bluffs, like Shelter Island, can
survive climate change with its fresh-water aquifer
relatively intact. This relatively small change in freshwater resources over the next century suggests that the
primary challenge of climate change on Shelter Island will
not be potable-water retention, but rather dealing with
other factors such as increased storm surge damage.
Acknowledgements The authors thank G. Hanson and H. Bokuniewicz for their insightful comments and suggestions. Also, J.
Wanlass of the Suffolk County Department of Health and M.
Phillips of the US Geological Survey provided data essential to this
study.

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