Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
17 October 2014
Employment rate
80
75
UK
70
65
Wales
60
Unemployment rate
% of economically active
10
8
UK
Jun to Aug 13
Jun to Aug 11
Jun to Aug 09
Jun to Aug 07
Jun to Aug 05
Jun to Aug 03
Jun to Aug 01
4
Jun to Aug 99
Wales
(1)
ILO unemployment
(2)
Economically active
(1)
Economically inactive
Claimant count
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(4)
(3)
Change
on year
UK
Rate
(%)
Change
on year
Rate
(%)
Change
on year
1,363
-32
68.8
-1.3
73.0
1.5
94
-27
6.5
-1.5
6.0
-1.7
1,457
-58
73.7
-2.5
77.8
0.2
503
47
26.3
2.5
22.2
-0.2
52.9
-17
3.7
-1.2
2.8
-1.2
Levels are for those aged 16 and over, rates are for those aged 16-64.
Levels and rates are for those aged 16 and over. The rate is a proportion of the economically active.
Levels and rates are for those aged 16-64.
Data relate to September 2014 and are provisional.
Contents
The charts in this bulletin are arranged as follows:
page 3: employment;
page 4: unemployment;
page 5: economic inactivity and out of work benefit claimant rates;
page 6: labour market indicators for NUTS2 areas;
page 7: employee and self employment jobs;
page 8: Indices of Production; Index of Construction; and Index of Market Services
page 9: exports, VAT/PAYE enterprise births and VAT/PAYE enterprises; and
page 10: average earnings, gross value added and gross disposable household income per head.
Detailed background notes and key quality information are given on pages 11 to 15.
New data
80
75
UK
70
Wales
65
60
Jun-Aug 10
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug 12
New data
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
80
UK
75
Wales
70
65
60
Jun-Aug 10
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug 12
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
80
75
70
UK
65
Wales
60
Jun-Aug 10
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug 12
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
12
11
Wales
10
9
UK
8
2010 Q2
2011 Q2
2012 Q2
2013 Q2
2014 Q2
New data
8
UK
4
Jun-Aug 10
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug 12
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
35
Wales
30
25
20
y/e Jun 10
y/e Jun 11
y/e Jun 12
y/e Jun 13
y/e Jun 14
Source: LLFS/APS, NS
25
Wales
20
UK
15
10
y/e Jun 10
y/e Jun 11
y/e Jun 12
y/e Jun 13
y/e Jun 14
Source: LLFS/APS, NS
6
Wales
5
4
UK
3
2
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
New data
35
30
Wales
25
20
15
Jun-Aug 10
UK
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug12
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
30
25
Wales
20
15
10
Jun-Aug 10
UK
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug12
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
35
Wales
30
UK
25
20
15
Jun-Aug 10
Jun-Aug 11
Jun-Aug12
Jun-Aug 13
Jun-Aug 14
20
18
Wales
16
14
GB
12
10
Feb 2004
Feb 2006
Feb 2008
Feb 2010
Feb 2012
Feb 2014
75
East Wales
70
Wales
65
West Wales and the Valleys
60
y/e Jun 10
y/e Jun 11
y/e Jun 12
y/e Jun 13
y/e Jun 14
Source: LLFS/APS, NS
10
West Wales and the Valleys
Wales
8
East Wales
7
6
y/e Jun 10
y/e Jun 11
y/e Jun 12
y/e Jun 13
y/e Jun 14
Source: LLFS/APS, NS
5
West Wales and the Valleys
Wales
4
East Wales
3
2
y/e Sep 10
y/e Sep 11
y/e Sep 12
y/e Sep 13
y/e Sep 14
35
West Wales and the Valleys
30
25
Wales
East Wales
20
y/e Jun 10
y/e Jun 11
y/e Jun 12
y/e Jun 13
y/e Jun 14
Source: LLFS/APS, NS
Workforce Jobs
Index 1999=100
130
120
Wales
110
UK
100
90
Jun-98
Jun-02
Jun-06
Jun-10
Jun-14
Source: WFJ, NS
110
100
90
Wales
80
70
UK
60
50
Jun-98
Jun-02
Jun-06
Jun-10
Jun-14
Source: WFJ, NS
Self-employment Jobs
Index 1999=100
160
150
140
Wales
130
120
UK
110
100
90
Jun-98
Jun-02
Jun-06
Jun-10
Jun-14
Source: WFJ, NS
New data
Index of Production
Index 2011=100
140
130
120
Wales
110
100
UK
90
80
Q2 99
Q2 01
Q2 03
Q2 05
Q2 07
Q2 09
Q2 11
Q2 13
Index of Manufacturing
New data
Index 2011=100
140
130
120
110
UK
100
90
80
Q2 99
Wales
Q2 01
Q2 03
Q2 05
Q2 07
Q2 09
Q2 11
Q2 13
Index 2011=100
150
140
130
120
Wales
110
100
UK
90
Q2 01
Q2 03
Q2 05
Index of Construction
New data
80
Q2 99
Q2 07
Q2 09
Q2 11
Q2 13
120
Wales
110
100
UK
90
80
70
60
Q2 99
Q2 01
Q2 03
Q2 05
Q2 07
Q2 09
Q2 11
Q2 13
NS = National Statistics
Value of Exports
Index 1999=100
260
240
Wales
220
200
180
160
UK
140
120
100
80
Q2 1999 Q2 2001 Q2 2003 Q2 2005 Q2 2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013
Source: HMRC, NS
75
65
UK
55
Wales
45
35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
600
UK
550
500
450
Wales
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Next update: Dec 2014
NS = National Statistics
Average Earnings
Wales as a percentage of UK
95
90
Residence-based
85
Workplace-based
80
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
100
95
90
85
GDHI
80
75
70
GVA
65
60
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
NS = National Statistics
10
Changes to this months bulletin and planned changes for future bulletins
This months bulletin
Revisions to Labour Force Survey estimates: The ONS have revised estimates derived from the Labour
Force Survey (including estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity) as a result of
taking on board population estimates based on the 2011 Census and a review of the seasonal adjustment
process. Estimates have been revised back to June to August 2001. The article 'Revisions to Labour Force
Survey estimates due to re-weighting to the Census 2011 population' published on 23 September 2014
provides indicative details of the back revisions to the headline estimates of employment,
unemployment and economic inactivity. ONS will update this article as soon as possible.
Next months bulletin
On 17 December 2013, the ONS published an article explaining the decision to reclassify Network Rail
from the private sector to the public sector from April 2004. This decision results from new guidance in
the 2010 European System of Accounts (ESA10). The article explained that the classification decision
would be implemented from 1 September 2014 when ESA10 came into force. Consequently, Network
Rail will be reclassified from the private sector to the public sector in the estimates of Average Weekly
Earnings (AWE) in next months release, resulting in revisions to the AWE estimates back to 2002.
Future bulletins
Introduction of Universal Credit: The Pathfinder for Universal Credit started on 29 April 2013 with the
introduction of this new benefit in one Jobcentre Plus office (Ashton under Lyne). This has been
extended to further Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain.
By 12 June 2014 (the Claimant Count date for June 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced
in 10 Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain.
By 10 July 2014 (the Claimant Count date for July 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced in
a further 15 Jobcentre Plus offices in the North West region of England.
By 8 August 2014 (the Claimant Count date for August 2014), Universal Credit had been
introduced in a further 14 Jobcentre Plus offices in the North West region of England.
Between the August Claimant Count date (8 August) and the September Claimant Count date (11
September) no further Jobcentre Plus offices had introduced Universal Credit.
Universal Credit had therefore been introduced in 39 Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain
by 11 September 2014, of which 33 were in the North West region.
More detailed information is available at List of Jobcentre Plus Offices (76.1 Kb Pdf) under
Universal Credit on the website.
Universal Credit will replace a number of means-tested benefits including the means-tested element of
Jobseekers Allowance (JSA). It will not replace contributory based JSA.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason
of being unemployed. Since October 1996 it has been a count of the number of people claiming JSA.
Following a consultation in 2012 by ONS, it was decided that, with the introduction of Universal Credit,
the Claimant Count would include:
people claiming contribution-based JSA (which is not affected by the introduction of Universal
Credit),
people claiming income-based JSA during the transition period while this benefit is being
gradually phased out, and
people claiming Universal Credit who are not earning and who are subject to a full set of labour
market jobseeker requirements, that is required to be actively seeking work and available to start
work.
The Claimant Count estimates from May 2013 onwards, published in this Statistical Bulletin, do not
include claimants of Universal Credit. ONS will include jobseeker Universal Credit claims in the
Claimant Count statistics as soon as possible.
11
Policy/Operational Context
This bulletin is a compendium publication used to bring together the latest key statistics relating to the
Welsh economy and labour market, mainly in the context of the UK economy and labour market. The
bulletin is updated each month, so that it is based on the latest version of each of the datasets it includes
(see dates given in each of the charts for the next update dates). The headline LFS estimates in the
bulletin are published by ONS in their Labour Market Statistical Bulletin
(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour+Market) which includes headline
figures for Wales as a whole. This bulletin produced by The Welsh Government provides a more
detailed breakdown of the Wales data within the ONS bulletin and presents those estimates alongside
other headline estimates for the economy and labour market for Wales. These statistics are used by the
Welsh Government to monitor the headline statistics for the Welsh economy as well as providing
comparisons to the UK economy. The bulletin includes some of the measures contained in the Programme
for Government, namely the employment rate, Gross Value Added and Gross Disposable Household
Income. This bulletin is also used by other public sector organisations, businesses, academia and private
individuals as a means of identifying the key trends in the headline economic and labour market
statistics for Wales. Our 2012 user consultation provides more information on how our outputs are used:
http://wales.gov.uk/consultations/statistics/economicoutputs/?status=closed
The bulletin is the main vehicle for the publication of results for the Welsh labour market from the
Labour Force Survey (LFS), as produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), regional public
sector employment (page 3) and also for information from Jobcentre plus on the numbers of claimants of
unemployment related benefits, or claimant count and out of work benefit claimants (pages 4 to 6). The
bulletin also provides Welsh data on the numbers of employee and self-employment jobs as published
by the ONS (see page 7). Further information on these datasets is given later in these notes.
In addition to these datasets, the bulletin brings together the further datasets, for which the Welsh
Government produces separate publications, including short term output indices, exports data, earnings
data, VAT/PAYE enterprises data and regional accounts data. Further information about these
additional datasets can be found in the separate publications themselves, all available from the following
page on the Welsh Government website:
http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/?topic=Business+and+economy
Notes
Some of data given in this bulletin are presented as index numbers. Index numbers take the data for
each time period and divide them by the figure for the reference period, and multiply the result by 100.
A figure of above 100 for a given time period then indicates that the figure is higher than that for the
reference period, whilst a figure of below 100 indicates that it is lower than that for the reference period.
Data on workforce jobs, self-employment jobs and exports are presented as indices referenced to 1999 =
100. The indices of production, manufacturing and construction and the index of market services are
each referenced to 2011 = 100.
For the series shown on pages 3 to 8, most are seasonally adjusted, and this is to be assumed unless
stated otherwise. None of the data shown on pages 9 and 10 are seasonally adjusted.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) data at both a regional and sub-regional level used in the charts on pages
3 to 6 are adjusted to take account of the results of the 2011 Census of Population. The seasonally
adjusted LFS data used on pages 3 to 5 also take account of the latest mid-year population estimates as
released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
12
95% confidence intervals for Labour Force Survey figures: Wales, June to August 2014
Numbers in thousands
Estimates
Lower
limit
Estimate
Quarterly changes
Upper
limit
Lower
limit
Quarterly
change
Annual changes
Upper
limit
Lower
limit
Annual
change
Upper
limit
Employment level
1,326
1,363
1,400
-60
-12
36
-81
-32
18
Employment rate
66.9%
68.8%
70.6%
-2.7%
-0.3%
2.1%
-3.8%
-1.3%
1.3%
78
94
110
-24
-3
19
-50
-27
-3
Unemployment rate
5.3%
6.5%
7.6%
-1.6%
-0.1%
1.3%
-3.1%
-1.5%
0.1%
1,422
1,457
1,493
-60
-14
32
-105
-58
-11
71.9%
73.7%
75.5%
-2.7%
-0.4%
1.9%
-4.8%
-2.5%
-0.2%
459
503
547
-49
65
-11
47
104
Unemployment level
13
The additional persons sampled in the LLFS/APS are based on four waves, over four years of the
survey. For the first wave, the response rate in Wales is around 75 per cent, with around 80 per cent of
these remaining by the fourth wave.
There are some minor differences between the results from the LLFS/APS datasets and the main LFS
datasets, probably arising from the different sampling structures employed in each element. But for this
Bulletin, the Office for National Statistics has reweighted the main LFS to take account of the 2011
Census. The APS data will be revised later this year to take account of the revised mid-year estimates
back to 2002 following the 2011 census. This means that the detailed labour market statistics in this
Bulletin are based different population estimates to the headline estimates in this bulletin.
There are two different measures of unemployment used in official UK statistics, namely the headline
International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure recorded by the LFS and the claimant count measure.
Each is subject to advantages and disadvantages.
The headline ILO measure is a count of those who are out of work and want a job, or have actively
sought work in the last 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; plus those who
are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start in the next 2 weeks. It is the broader measure
of unemployment used around the world. However, being sourced from a survey, the results are
sample-based estimates subject to sampling variability, i.e. the true value for any measure lies in a range
about the estimated value. This range is wider as the detail in the data increases, for example Wales data
are subject to higher variability than UK data (the variablility around the Wales estimate is shown
above).
The claimant count is a count of all those claiming unemployment related benefits (currently Jobseekers
Allowance). As such it excludes those who are unemployed who are not eligible to claim, and those
who do not wish to claim. However, the advantage of the claimant count measure is that it is a count of
all claimants and is not subject to any sampling variability. It can therefore be disaggregated to very
high levels of detail, and in particular, changes measured over the short term are more robust than for
the headline unemployment measure.
Key quality information: Regional Public Sector Employment
In 2005, ONS, in collaboration with other government departments and the devolved administrations
implemented major improvements to public sector employment (PSE) estimates. Standard definitions
for public sector employment across all departmental statistics were agreed and a single definitive set of
quarterly PSE estimates introduced. A new Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey (QPSES) was
established. ONS publishes official PSE estimates each quarter, as National Statistics in the form of a
Statistical Bulletin, approximately 11 weeks after the period to which they refer.
The public sector comprises central government, local government and public corporations as defined
for the UK National Accounts. ONS produces the United Kingdoms National Accounts. The National
Accounts are an internationally comparable accounting framework that describes the activities in a
national economy. The relevant international manuals are the System of National Accounts 1993(SNA93)
and the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA95). As part of the process of producing the National
Accounts, ONS decides on the classification of institutions and transactions within the economy.
The public sector employment estimates relate to the number of people employed according to returns
from relevant organisations, but they include a number of workers with a second job in the public sector
whose main job is in the private sector or in a separate public sector organisation.
English further education colleges and sixth form college corporations have been classified to the private
sector with effect from 1 April 2012 along with Royal Mail PLC moving into the private sector in Q4 2013
and Lloyds Banking Group returning to the private sector in Q1 2014. To allow for comparisons over
time, the UK data excludes these re-classifications (table 6a in the ONS release
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pse/public-sector-employment/index.html ).
14
15
The Headline Statistics and Statistical bulletin are available on the Welsh Government Internet site at:
http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/?topic=Business+and+economy
Data Sources and Quality
We have published a comprehensive data sources guide lists which provides a summary of all the main
official data sources used by the Economic and Labour Market Statistics branch as well as useful links.
The guide can be found at: http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/economic-labour-marketstatistics-guide-data-sources-useful-links/
National Statistics
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in
accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the
Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
meet identified user needs;
are well explained and readily accessible;
are produced according to sound methods, and
are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code
of Practice shall continue to be observed.
16