Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
April 2015
120
16
110
14
100
12
90
10
80
70
60
50
40
30
-2
20
Apr 2014
-4
May 2014
WTI
US$/bbl
US$/bbl
Jun 2014
Jul 2014
Brent
Aug 2014
Sep 2014
Oct 2014
Nov 2014
Dec 2014
Jan 2015
Brent-WTI Differential
4,500
4,500
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
0
2009
2010
Iran
2011
Iraq
2012
Nigeria
2013
Libya
2014
US
Shale oil production in US has largely made up for losses due to conflict in Middle East
Prices began to fall in Q3 2014 as Libya increased exports and US production continued to climb
There may be further downward pressure on oil prices if Iranian sanctions are lifted
Source: Deloitte, EIA
(MMbbl/d)
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
-1
80
2010
(MMbbl/d)
98
-2
2011
Net supply
2012
2013
World production
2014
2015
2016
World consumption
3
EIA forecast
2
-1
-2
2010
North America
2011
2012
2013
Europe
2014
Middle East
2015
2016
Global Offshore
Oil and Gas Industry
GOM (U.S.)
E. Mediterranean
76 rigs contracted
12 rigs contracted
GOM (Mexico)
E. Africa
60 rigs contracted
W. Africa
3 rigs contracted
58 rigs contracted
Brazil
53 rigs contracted
NW Australia
12 rigs contracted
Number of Rigs
Contracted
Africa - Other
Number of
Rigs
Available
6
Africa - West
58
April 2014
Utilization
50.0%
62.5%
-12.5%
92
63.0%
63
98
64.3%
-1.3%
25
30
83.3%
20
23
87.0%
-3.7%
Asia - South
34
41
82.9%
39
43
90.7%
-7.8%
Asia - SouthEast
72
121
59.5%
89
125
71.2%
-11.7%
Australia
12
16
75.0%
12
14
85.7%
-10.7%
Black Sea
60.0%
66.7%
-6.7%
Europe - East
50.0%
100.0%
-50.0%
87
100
87.0%
82
96
85.4%
1.6%
Mediterranean
12
21
57.1%
13
19
68.4%
-11.3%
77
106
72.6%
80
105
76.2%
-3.6%
10
14
71.4%
13
16
81.3%
-9.9%
60.0%
100.0%
-40.0%
N. America - Mexico
60
88
68.2%
67
84
79.8%
-11.6%
N. America - US Alaska
75.0%
33.3%
41.7%
N. America - US GOM
76
197
38.6%
104
194
53.6%
-15.0%
S. America - Brazil
53
58
91.4%
63
67
94.0%
-2.6%
11
20
55.0%
13
38.5%
16.5%
S. America - Venezuela
66.7%
100.0%
-33.3%
Total / Average
602
929
66.7%
663
916
75.72%
-9.1%
GOM (U.S.)
E. Mediterranean
Brazil
E. Africa
GOM (Mexico)
W. Africa
NW Australia
Rigs
Contracted
(~600)
Rigs
Stacked
(~330)
UltraDeep
Deep Water
Water
UltraDeep
Water
Deep
Water
Shallow
Water
Shallow Water (< 500 ft)
Shallow
Water
April 2015
April 2014
Change
Available
929
916
+1.4%
Contracted
602
663
-9.2%
Utilization
66.7%
75.7%
-9.0%
917
1,765
-48.0%
Reduced utilization
More competition between suppliers
Reduced daily rig rates
Source: Adapted from Baker Hughes Data & Rigzone, April 2015
6 Months
9 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
4 Years
5 Years
Onshore
Lease permitting activity
New Geophysical surveys
Rig contracting
Drilling
Completions
Production
Offshore
Lease permitting activity
New Geophysical surveys
Rig contracting
Drilling
Facility Manufacture
Completions
Production
Encourage innovation
Short life projects with a short timeframe from first expenditure to first production may be
deferred pending stronger product prices
Long term or long life projects are typically unaffected unless low product price persists for
a number of years
Off-shore projects generally slower to slow down and slower to ramp up in a recovery
Recent Events
April 14, 2015 Exploration drilling in two offshore blocks in India and Vietnam
April 9, 2015 Two exploration programs offshore east coast Canada - drilling off Nova Scotia
and a seismic program in the Jeanne dArc Basin off Newfoundland
April 9, 2015 Major discovery in the subsalt 220 miles south of New Orleans, GOM
April 8, 2015 Major acquisition in the upstream Oil and gas industry for $70 billion based on
the global LNG market and future deep water drilling
April 6, 2014 Five deepwater rigs shut down off the coast of Brazil due to the drilling
contractor filing for bankruptcy
March 31, 2015 Two rig contracts terminated in the GOM for $160MM termination fee
March 30, 2015 Super Major cuts capital spending by $15 billion US from 2015 to 2017, but is
sticking to plans to drill offshore in the Arctic
March 30, 2015 Production Sharing Contract signed to explore for oil and gas in the Rakhine
Basin, located offshore Yangon, Myanmar.
March 30, 2015 Production began at the Hadrian South Field, located about 250 miles off the
coast of Louisiana in water depths of approximately 2,332 meters
March 30, 2015 Rig contract terminations with various service companies in the GOM
March 18, 2015 Cyprus has signed an agreement to extend a search for natural gas off the
east Mediterranean Islands southern coast after disappointing results from an initial exploration
round
March 16, 2015 Drilling to start in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana
March 13, 2015 Major Eastern European explorer terminates five-year contract with large
offshore drilling operator
February 24, 2015 A number of major offshore explores have terminated drilling contracts for
a total of 6 rigs with Drilling companies in Brazil, the GOM and the UK North Sea
17
2015 Gaffney, Cline & Associates. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions of use: by accepting this document, the recipient agrees that the document together with all information included therein is the confidential and proprietary property of
Gaffney, Cline & Associates and includes valuable trade secrets and/or proprietary information of Gaffney, Cline & Associates (collectively "information"). Gaffney, Cline & Associates retains all rights under copyright laws and trade secret laws of the
United States of America and other countries. The recipient further agrees that the document may not be distributed, transmitted, copied or reproduced in whole or in part by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise, without the express prior
written consent of Gaffney, Cline & Associates, and may not be used directly or indirectly in any way detrimental to Gaffney, Cline & Associates interest.
Major Themes
Currently, offshore day rates under pressure because of NOC and IOC renegotiations
Despite short-term pain, long-term GOM outlook strong because of deep water (shallow
water declining)
New projects
Growing production
New discoveries
Interest in new leases
Mexico
Lots of interest in southern shallow water
Northern deepwater likely delayed by low oil prices
N. DW
S. DW
S. SW
Rig activity in the Gulf of Mexico has historically not been driven by price.
Since March, rig activity in the Gulf of Mexico has fallen.
80
70
Percet Utilization
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Apr-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Apr-15
Source: BSEE
Deepwater, greater than 1,000 ft, represents the majority of the production.
Deepwater is the focus of future activity.
Forecasted Production
Production 2015/16
Projected Production
- New projects + redevelopment
+ expansion of older fields
- Forecast
Risks
Use of partners:
- 2014 lease sale 1/10 partners
- 2015 lease sale 7/10 partners
North Deepwater
Lots of interest close to US
Target data availability July/August
South Deepwater
Little interest now
Looking Ahead
Long-term
Trends
Dominance of Majors
Diversity of investments
Short-term vulnerability
Risk mitigation
Cost reduction
Offshore Africa
29
2014 Gaffney, Cline & Associates. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions of use: by accepting this document, the recipient agrees that the document together with all information included therein is the confidential and proprietary property of
Gaffney, Cline & Associates and includes valuable trade secrets and/or proprietary information of Gaffney, Cline & Associates (collectively "information"). Gaffney, Cline & Associates retains all rights under copyright laws and trade secret laws of the
United States of America and other countries. The recipient further agrees that the document may not be distributed, transmitted, copied or reproduced in whole or in part by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise, without the express prior
written consent of Gaffney, Cline & Associates, and may not be used directly or indirectly in any way detrimental to Gaffney, Clines & Associates interest.
Major Themes
Offshore Africa rig counts in decline but drop is not uniform
60 of 94 rigs active (Rigzone) = 63.8% utilization
31
Rest of Africa
Focus countries
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Mauritania
Mali
Niger
Sudan
Chad
Eritrea
Senegal
Burkina
Faso
Guinea-Bissau
Benin
Togo
Guinea
Cote
dIvoire
Sierra Leone
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Liberia
South
Sudan
Central African
Republic
Ghana
Cameroon
Somalia
EG
Gabon
Uganda
Congo
DR
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Namibia
Botswana
South
Africa
32
Kenya
Tectonic setting
During the late Jurassic and throughout the Cretaceous a large scale
rifting event led to the break-up of the Gondwana supercontinent and the
development of the South Atlantic ocean.
33
Heine et al. (2013)
34
The Santos and Campos basins of Brazil were formed adjacent to those
in Angola during the rifting event and therefore stratigraphy and structure
will be analogous despite the fact that the South Atlantic now separates
the two.
Plate reconstruction by GeTech, published in GEO ExPro (2013).
Tupi (Lula)
discovered in 2006
70%
% of wells
60%
50%
Post-Salt Wels
Pre-Salt Wells
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Year
35
Data from Deloitte Petroview Sub Saharan Africa October 2014 dataset
Pre-salt clastic
reservoir targets
36
Pre-salt clastic
reservoir targets
37
Gabon
basin
SW
Congo
basin
Pre-salt clastic
reservoir targets
Patchy carbonate
reservoir targets
38
Gabon
Republic of
the Congo
DRC
Zambia
Kilometres
0
Nene Marine
250
500
Namibia
MBoundi
Minsala Marine
Tilapia
Kouakouala
Pointe Indienne
Mengo
Loufika
Litchendjili
Viodo
Lidongo X Marine
Bindi
Loussima
Kundji
Tchiniambi
Emeraude
Manzi
39
Move
Deloitte Petroview October 2014 Sub Saharan Africa Dataset
Pre-salt clastic
reservoir targets
Pre-salt carbonate
reservoir targets
Potential basement
reservoir targets
40
Niger Delta
West African Aptian salt basins
Orange River coastal basins
Kwanza
basin
Gabon
Republic of
the Congo
DRC
Map of
Southern
Kwanza
Basin
BALEIA-1
ORCA-1
KAMOXI-1
MAVINGA-1
Kilometres
0
CAMEIA-1
CAMEIA-2
JACARE-1
BICUAR-1
MUPA-1
LOCOSSO-1
DILOLO-1
AZUL-1
Statoil
cancelled
rig contract
PUMA-1
DISCOVERY
P&A
OGONGA-1
41
Deloitte Petroview October 2014 Sub Saharan Africa Dataset
Zambia
LONTRA-1
Angola
DRILLING
250
500
Namibia
Tupi (Lula)
Santos
Kwanza
Fault
Sandstone
Break-up Unconformity
Basement rocks
Carbonate
Salt
Gas Developments
Many of the Deep Water West African pre-salt discoveries are gas rich,
in contrast to the predominance of oil found in the pre-salt of Brazil
Under current Angolan contract terms, operators are not entitled to
any gas discovered.
Gabon, Republic of the Congo and DRC have more favourable gas
development terms, but lack of infrastructure or clustered resources
will delay gas developments
African Gas Demand
Ghana, Cote dIvoire, Cameroon, Gabon, Mauritania & Nigeria all have
local gas market developments that are not linked to oil prices
Thus developments can proceed as long as funding for gas
utilization projects based on Power Generation or Petrochemicals
proceed as planned
Backed by International Agencies with gas payment guarantees
43
Thank you
44
Image source: Wikipedia
Questions ?
Thanks to our speakers:
Robin Mann
Jim Honefenger
Chris Rachwal
Thanks to our sponsor:
April 2015