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Are MLPs and Midstream Companies Still Like Utilities Without Walls?
As of this writing, MLPs were falling toward
are essential to society. They own monopolistic assets that, for the most part,
generate enough cash flow to pay their
current distribution commitments to
shareholders. Plunging stock prices have
600
INDEX RATE
500
400
300
200
100
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YEAR
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source:
Data shown January 1, 2008 to January 31, 2016.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
www.mhinvest.com
page 2
Similarities
The underlying MLP business is indeed
utility-like in several regards.
Essential services at the heart of both.
Limited
Differences
The comparison between MLPs and utilities is strong, though not perfect. Some
key differences:
No walls. MLPs are not geographically limited, like utilities. They can
go where the need arisesand
it has arisen in many places since
shale-drilling technology has become
economical. Utilities are like trees, with
good roots but little opportunity to
expand. MLPs are like strong vines, putting down a root and growing further
along the line.
The issue weve been studying is the unjustified devaluing of MLPs. For starters,
what kind of a return premium does one
require for accepting a lower level of
monopoly and regulation for the business, a little more variability in demand,
shorter though still very long contracted So why did MLPs collapse in price during
cash flows? Should the required current 2015, in many cases even more so than
cash yield be 23 times that of utilities, oil companies who rely on price for revewhich it is today?
nues? Its
a conundrum. To be sure, we can
MLPs vs Utilities:
Yield
(2002 - 2016e)
page 3
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
861 bps
Spread
672 bps
Spread*
YEAR
Source: Bloomberg,
Factset,
Alerian.com.
are
represented
byMLP
the
AlerianIndex;
MLPUtilities
Infrastructure
Index.
Utilities are
Source: Bloomberg,
Factset,
and alerian.com;MLPs
MLPs are
represented
by the Alerian
Infrastructure
are represented by
the Dow Jones
Utilities Index. *Current as of 1/29/16 sourced from Bloomberg
represented by
the Dow Jones Utilities Index.
*2016 estimated yield spread sourced from Bloomberg.
Data shown January 1, 2002 to January 31, 2016.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
www.mhinvest.com
page 4
How much should these concerns affect all factors that matter in the projection
valuation? If we view MLPs as a sector of long-term cash flows (always the true
or industry that became clearly defined value of a company). Relative valuation
about the turn of this century, we can is a more reasonable quest. For example,
see that since that starting point (which, utilities should obviously sell at a yield
granted, is not a long history) investors lower than junk bonds, since utilities are
have accorded them a higher valuation investment grade and have at least some
than utilities based on EBITDA (earnings
growth of distributions, while junk bonds
before interest, taxes, depreciation, and
represent credit interest in risky compaamortizationa generally accepted
nies and the bond distributions will never
metric that compares apples to apples for
companies with different debt, tax, and grow. Investors accept a lower yield for
depreciation profiles). Their valuation has utilities because of the certainty of their
typically reflected a higher multiple of underlying businesses and the payouts
MLPs vsare
Utilities:
EV/EBITDA
that
will flow from them, compared to the
EBITDA because growth prospects
better, and their higher yields are mainly
18x
speculative
nature of high-yield bonds.
2002 - 2016e
EV/EBITDA
12x
MLP-UTIL Average EV/TTM EBITDA Spread=3.9x
10x
8x
1.4x
6x
(0.1)x
Dow Jones Utilities Index EV/EBITDA
4x
2x
0x
16x
14x
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e*
YEAR
Source: Bloomberg, Factset; MLPs are represented by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index; Utilities are represented by the Dow Jones
Source: Bloomberg,
Alerian.com. MLPs are represented by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index. Utilities are
Utilities Index. *Current as of 1/29/2016 sourced from Bloomberg
represented by the Dow Jones Utilities Index.
*2016 estimated yield spread sourced from Bloomberg.
EV/EBITDA: Current Enterprise Value or Enterprise Value as of January 29, 2016. Date / Trailing 12 Month EBITDA.
With the trailing twelve months starting on the pulled Enterprise Value date. The Bloomberg mnemonic for this
value is CURRENT_EV_TO_T12M_EBITDA.
Index Estimated EV/EBITDA: Index Estimated EV/EBITDA Current Year. Calculated as Enterprise Value Per Share
divided by Estimated EBITDA Per Share FY1. The Bloomberg mnemonic for this value is IDX_EST_EV_EBITDA.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
page 5
have to adjust to capital markets conditions, but thats what companies do, just
as utilities did in 2002 when they were able
to use their recurring-revenue stream to
strengthen their balance sheetsthis, following a 62% drop in the value of the S&P
Utilities Index between 2001 and 2002.
That utilities index has returned 11.1%
annually in the 13+ years since then as of
this writing.
Utilities could do that, no matter the
doomsday predictions of journalists
and analysts, because they had the recurring revenues to deal with their debt
and operational problems. They had the
raw material with which to recover from
missteps. Indeed, in 2009, MLPs did not cut
distributions but reduced growth instead,
because their distributions were covered
by existing cash flows.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
YEAR
Source: Bloomberg; MLPs are represented by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, Utilities are represented by the Dow Jones Utilities
Index
(2002 - 2015)
(2002 - 2016e)
250
MLPs
UTILITIES
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
YEAR
Source: Bloomberg; MLPs are represented by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, Utilities are represented by the Dow Jones Utilities
Index
Data shown for the period from January 1, 2002 to January 31, 2016.
MLPs vs Utilities: Total Debt to Total Equity
(2002 - 2015)
200
150
MLPs
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YEAR
Source: Bloomberg; MLPs are represented by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, Utilities are represented by the Dow Jones Utilities
Index
Data shown for the period from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2015.
Source: Bloomberg; MLPs are represented by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, Utilities are represented by the Dow Jones Utilities Index.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
UTILITIES
UTILITIES
50
250
200
100
www.mhinvest.com
page 6
There are other factors that have contributed to MLPs malaise. We think the secular
market environment played a huge role.
Start with large groups of investors who
never heard of MLPs before and had no
idea there even was a midstream industry investing in these companies mainly
through packaged productsdue to
the tax complexity of owning individual
units. Add a Wall Street buffet of open-end
funds, closed-end funds, ETFs, and ETNs,
ready to provide a home for dollars chasing what had been the best-performing
sectorwith all of these products buying
mostly the same stocks due to limited
liquidity in the space. Add a dose of leverage, coming from the closed-end funds
operating on 30% margin, as well as hedge
funds purveying the bright and shiny new
thing. Consider that these packaged products control more than 15% of the market
cap in the sector. It was a potent recipe for
disaster when investors unfamiliar with the
solid assets that underlie the companies,
and unfamiliar with the essentially feebased nature of the business, began to
associate the midstream with oil prices
even though in past years the midstream
was no more connected to oil prices than
was the S&P 500.
Like any crash, concern led to fear, lack of
knowledge about the investments led to
panic, and investors fled the fundssome
of which had lifted the sector in the first
place as they had grown in number and
size. But there are only about 3040 more
2016 Miller/Howard Investments, Inc.
page 7
Chart 5. MLPs and Utilities: EBITDA/Earnings and DPS Comparison (2007 to 2015e*)
MLPs: EBITDA
and Distributions
per Share
MLPs: EBITDA
and Distributions
per Share
(2007 to(2007
2015e*)
to 2015e*)
Utilities:Utilities:
EarningsEarnings
and Dividends
per Share
and Dividends
per Share
(2007 to(2007
2015e*)
to 2015e*)
UTIL Earnings
per Shareper Share UTIL Dividends
per Shareper Share
UTIL Earnings
UTIL Dividends
$90
$80
$80
$68$70
$70
$60
$50
$40
$86
$83
$83
$78
$78
$86
$68
$83
$78
$78
$78
$78
$74
$74
$74
$74
$83
$60
$50
$42
$39
$39
$36
$42
$42
$41
$42
$50
$50
$45
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$41
$20
$40
Shown in USD
$90
Shown in USD
$100
Shown in USD
Shown in USD
MLP EBITDA
Shareper Share MLP Distributions
per Shareper Share
MLPper
EBITDA
MLP Distributions
$100
$31
$35
$30
$30
$15
$20
$15
$15
$20
$20
$10
$10
$10
$10
$5
$5
$0
$0
2007
$0
2015e*
2014
2015e*
$0
2007
2008
2007
$36
$34
$35
$34
2009
2008
2010
2009
$36
$36
2011
2012
2010
2011
YEAR
YEAR
2013
2012
2014
2013
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
2008
2007
2009
2008
$18
$17
$17
$17
$17
$16
$16
$15
2010
2009
$36
$34
$34
$32
$30
$30
$29
$25
$40$34
$30
$35
$34
$32
$31
$19
$18
2011
2012
2010
2011
YEAR
YEAR
$36
$29
$20
$19
2013
2012
$20
$20
2014
2013
$22
$20
$22
2015e*
2014
2015e*
Source: Bloomberg.
Utilities are
represented
by the Dow
Jones
Utilities
Source:
Bloomberg.
Utilities
represented
the
Dow
JonesIndex.
Utilities Index.
Source: Bloomberg.
Bloomberg.
MLPs
represented
by the
MLP
Infrastructure
Index. Index.
Source: Bloomberg.
MLPs
are represented
by the
Alerian
MLP
Infrastructure
Index. Utilities
Source:
MLPsare
are
represented
by Alerian
the
Alerian
MLP
Infrastructure
are
represented
by the
Doware
Jones
UtilitiesbyIndex.
*2015e: Bloomberg estimates are as of 12/21/2015.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
Company
S&P
Rating
APU
AMERIGAS PARTNERS
NR
EEP
BBB
ENLK
BBB
Indicated Distribution
Rate (1/19/16)
Spread of Distribution
Rate minus Bond Yield
Corporate Bond
Maturity
10.41
7.89
2.52
5/20/2022
13.72
6.46
7.26
10/15/2025
13.57
7.93
5.64
6/1/2025
EPD
BBB+
7.35
5.07
2.28
2/15/2026
EQM
BBB-
4.31
6.67
(2.37)
8/1/2024
ETE
BB
15.12
11.49
3.63
6/1/2027
1/15/2026
ETP
BBB-
18.25
7.34
10.91
GEL
GENESIS ENERGY
BB-
9.81
11.39
(1.58)
8/1/2022
MMP
BBB+
4.95
4.28
0.67
3/15/2025
MPLX
MPLX
BBB-
6.63
6.12
0.51
2/15/2025
OKS
ONEOK PARTNERS
BBB
12.04
7.04
5.00
3/15/2025
PAA
BBB
14.66
6.32
8.34
10/15/2025
SEP
BBB
5.87
5.19
0.68
3/15/2025
SHLX
N/A
2.47
N/A
N/A
N/A
TEP
NR
7.54
N/A
N/A
N/A
WES
BBB-
9.70
6.38
3.31
6/1/2025
Source: Bloomberg.
N/A = Not Available. NR = Not Rated.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
www.mhinvest.com
page 8
Chart 7.
Yield Comparison: MLPs, BBB Corporate
Bonds, High-Yield
(January 31, 1997January 31, 2016)
Yield Comaprison:
MLPs, BBBBonds
Corp, Junk
(1/31/1997 to 1/31/2016)
25%
5.35%
20%
BofA Merrill Lynch US
High Yield Master II Effective Yield
0%
YIELD
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
15%
Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index
10%
MLPBBB
Spread 5.35%
5%
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Effective Yield
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YEAR
Source: Bloomberg.
Data shown January 31, 1997January 31, 2016.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
www.mhinvest.com
page 9
EV/EBITDA
20x
15x
10x
5x
0x
MLPs
Utilities
REITs
Consumer
Staples
Information
Technology
Telecom
Chemicals Pharamaceuticals
Source: Bloomberg
Data shown is for the period January 1, 2006 to January 31, 2016.
EV/EBITDA Definition: Current Enterprise Value or Enterprise Value as of Date / Trailing 12 Month EBITDA. With the trailing twelve months starting on the pulled Enterprise Value
date. The Bloomberg mnemonic for this value is CURRENT_EV_TO_T12M_EBITDA.
Index Estimated EV/EBITDA: Index Estimated EV/EBITDA Current Year. Calculated as Enterprise Value Per Share divided by Estimated EBITDA Per Share FY1. The Bloomberg
mnemonic for this value is IDX_EST_EV_EBITDA.
See important disclosures and definitions on page 12.
www.mhinvest.com
about half debt and half equity), and both
types of financing carry similar costs in
terms of how much the MLP will have to
pay for the money. If an MLP pays 68%
interest on debt and a similar level on the
equity it issues, it makes a very nice profit
on projects whose return on investment is
in the 1220% range.
So its important for MLPs to maintain
an investment-grade rating in order to
control the costs of the debt financing.
And most of the midstream companies
are investment grade or close to it. For
example, in our portfolio, cash from operations covers the debt servicing by at least 3
times, and is as high as 10 times. Basically,
the companies can pay the mortgage on
the debt side. Over time MLPs debt has
sold at a similar interest rate to corporate
investment grade debt (BBB), sometimes a
little lower, sometimes noticeably higher
when times are less certain, as now, but
not as high as below-investment-grade.
The issue for MLPs in general now is not
debt issuanceassuming the debt they
carry is within a multiple of EBITDA thats
acceptable to the ratings agenciesand
most do have some room to issue more
debt today. But the cost to issue equity
has risen along with distribution yields, as
the stocks have been the object of intense
selling by investors. This selling may not
be always rational, and may be influenced
by secular market factors. These include
leveraged investors needing to deleverage; short sellers; investors disappointed
that growth may be lower than in the
recent past due to declining activity in the
energy fields (not no-growth, but lower
growth, in our view); and investors adopting a confused view that product pricing
and midstream profitability are highly
correlated. To be sure, MLPs had moved
toward the high end of their historical valuation range after returning an annualized
page 10
from retained cash flows. But these companies have been sold along with all the
rest. Among this type that we hold are
Enterprise Products Partners, Magellan,
EQT Midstream Partners, Shell Midstream
Partners, Genesis, and Western Gas. Yes,
there are companies that are not financially stressed right now (though you wouldnt
know it from their stock prices).
2. Temporarily using lines of credit. Most
major MLPs have lines of credit measured
in the $billions, and the lines remain
mostly unused as of this writing. ONEOK
Partners announced in early January that it
will be using $1 billion of 3-year unsecured
bank lines to refinance debt, at a rate of
Libor +1.30%lower than their existing
ratesand the company wont need to
raise equity or debt until at least mid-2017.
3. Slowing down or pushing back existing projects. Now that investors are more
concerned with the security of distributions than with maximized distribution
growth, this would help the unit prices
and turn what has become a vicious circle
into a virtuous one. We expect some postponements or deferrals to be announced
at upcoming fourth-quarter earnings
conference calls.
4. Selling assets. On January 8, 2016,
NGL Partners (we dont own this one) announced a sale of assets to private equity
firm ArcLight Partners. The deal enables
NGL to pay down lines of credit as well
as fund its upcoming capital needs so it
wont have to issue debt or equity. There
are many private equity investors circling
the waters now, with plenty of nonpublic
capital. As one observer put it: The purchase of assets from NGL is most likely
just the start of private equity purchases
of MLP assets or companies. The undervaluation of assets is profound and will
eventually be arbitraged.
**Alerian MLP Index Annualized Total Return August 31, 2009August 31, 2014. Source: Bloomberg. See full diclosure on page 12.
www.mhinvest.com
5 . E n t e r i n g i n t o j o i n t ve n t u r e s .
Companies can joint-venture projects with
other MLPs or with private equity companies or large institutions. The most recent
example of this is Plains and Magellan
forming a joint venture with Grand Mesa
for the Saddlehorn crude oil pipeline in
the Rockies.
6. Seeking seller financing. Purchase
deals can be done with seller financing.
We saw a recent example of this in late
2015, when EnLink purchased midstream
assets from a private company on an
installment sale basis, in a $1.6 billion
deal. (EnLink now has no 2016 equity sale
needs.) Enterprise also bought Pioneer
Naturals Eagle Ford midstream assets for
about $2 billion on an installment basis.
7. Getting a boost from their GPs. Many
MLPs have strong general partners that
can provide capital or temporarily reduce
their profits interest to help maintain the
MLPs distribution or fund capital investment. Enbridge has done this frequently,
and in the first week of January Enterprise
Products general partner (holds MLP
units, and no profits interest) announced
it would buy $300 million of units, and
has already bought one third of that.
Marathon, the C-corp parent of MLPX,
provided $1 billion to help consummate
the merger of MLPX and MWE. Devon
Energy the majority holder of the GP of
Enlink, bought $50 million worth of units
from the MLP.
8. Finding creative financing solutions.
Some companies have used or considered
using other creative financing tools, such
as convertible preferreds. Tallgrass (TEP)
recently sold units to its GP (TEGP), which
provided the capital, but gave TEP a free
call to buy back the units issued. Plains All
American recently announced the sale of
convertible preferred to a private equity
firm at a rate of 8% versus the public
equity yield of 12.75%, coupled with an
2016 Miller/Howard Investments, Inc.
page 11
indeed break the model for many investors. Thats why we believe distributions
at the leading MLPs will remain constant
at least.
Indeed, in our portfolio weve had eight
distribution increases in January 2016,
and nearly all raised distributions in the
fourth quarter of 2015. Perhaps the situation is not as dire as recent headlines
might suggest. MLP recurring revenues
will provide the raw material for balance
sheet repair and recovery. Longer term,
the need for additional infrastructure in
the US and elsewhere in the world is not
going away (like the need for energy delivery that utilities address), and the MLPs are
the companies that will provide it.
Miller/Howard Investments is an employee-owned equity management firm with three
decades of experience managing dividend-focused portfolios for institutions and individuals
nationally. We emphasize high-quality stocks
with high current dividend yield and strong
dividend growth. Our portfolio management
team has more than 175 years of collective
experience in companies that pay and grow
dividends. Miller/Howard Investments, Inc., is
a registered investment advisor specializing
in multi-cap, core equity management and
dividend strategies.
Please see important disclosures and definitions
on page 12.
page 12
PERFORMANCE DISCLOSURE
Investing in MLPs entails basic stock market risk. Opinions and estimates offered constitute Miller/Howards judgment and are subject to change without
notice. Common stocks and MLPs do not assure dividend (distribution) payments.
Distributions are paid only when declared by an issuers board of directors, and
the amount of any distribution may vary over time. Distribution yield is one component of performance and should not be the only consideration for investment.
Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Index returns do not reflect
the deduction of fees or expenses.
The information provided should not be considered a recommendation and should
not be considered investment advice. It does not take into account an investors
individual circumstances. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation cannot be guaranteed.
The securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for client accounts. The reader should not assume
that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable.
Common stocks do not assure distribution payments. Distributions are paid only
when declared by an issuers board of directors and the amount of any dividend
may vary over time. Distribution yield is one component of performance and
should not be the only consideration for investment. The information and analyses contained herein are not intended as tax, legal or investment advice and may
not be suitable for your specific circumstances; accordingly, you should consult
your own tax, legal, investment or other advisors, at both the outset of any transaction and on an ongoing basis, to determine such suitability.
The views expressed here represent Miller/Howard Investments views and are
subject to change at any time. Nothing stated herein, including the mention of
specific company names, should be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold,
or sell any security, sector, or MLPs in general. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Consumer Price Index is one of the most widely recognized price measures for
tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of the components are based on consumer spending patterns.
Tax considerations. The tax treatment for investors with portfolios investing in
units of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) is different from that of an investment
in stock, including: (a) The investors share of the MLPs income, deductions, and
expenses are reported on Schedule K-1, not Form 1099; (b) Because of the possibility of unrelated business taxable income, charitable remainder trusts
should not invest in this strategy, and other nontaxable investors (such as
ERISA and IRA accounts) should carefully consider whether to invest in this
strategy; (c) Investors may have to file income tax returns in states in which the
MLPs do business; and (d) MLP tax information is sent directly from the partnership, which generally has until April 15th to provide this information. You should
discuss these and any other tax implications with your tax advisor.
DEFINITIONS
Enterprise Value (EV): Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt,
minority interest, and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents.
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA): A
non-GAAP measure used to provide an approximation of a companys profitability.
This measure excludes the potential distortion that accounting and financing
rules may have on a companys earnings; therefore, EBITDA is a useful tool when
comparing companies that incur large amounts of depreciation expense because
it excludes these noncash items, which could understate the companys true
performance.
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITS Index is a free-float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that includes all tax qualified REITs listed in the NYSE, AMEX,
and NASDAQ National Market.
Net Debt to EBITDA. Measure computes the companys ability to pay off its debt
by utilizing the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
(EBITDA). Unit: Actual.
Total Debt to Total Equity. Total debt divided by total shareholders equity.
Alerian MLP Index is a composite of 50 energy Master Limited Partnerships
www.mhinvest.com