INTRODUCTION TO THE

WORST CASE ANALYSIS

PROCEDURES

1
 A STEP BY STEP PROCEDURE TO PERFORM

A WORST CASE CIRCUIT ANALYSIS

1. MEET WITH THE CIRCUIT DESIGNER:

A. REVIEW THE SCHEMATIC
B. DETERMINE EXACTLY WHICH CIRCUITS (AND THEIR ATTRIBUTES) ARE TO
BE ANALYZED
C. DETERMINE THE PASS/FAIL CRITERIA

2. LIST THE PART TYPES THAT WILL REQUIRE PART PARAMETER VARIATION DATA

3. DOCUMENT THE PART PARAMETER VARIATIONS DUE TO:

A. INITIAL TOLERANCE
B. TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
C. RADIATION EFFECTS
D. END OF LIFE (AGING) EFFECTS

4. FOR EACH CIRCUIT IDENTIFIED IN (1) ABOVE, PERFORM A WORST CASE CIRCUIT
ANALYSIS USING THE PART PARAMETER VARIATIONS FROM (3) ABOVE. COMPARE
THE RESULTS TO THE PASS/FAIL FROM (1) ABOVE.

5. WRITE THE FORMAL REPORT.

2
STEP 1

What circuits are to be analyzed ?

The designer, and the analyst together, identify those circuits to be evaluated. These would typically be
the ones that are critical to the mission, sensitive to part variation, have written numerical performance
requirements, etc. Then for each circuit selected the specific performance criteria of importance is stated
and the pass/fail requirement is determined.

Basically, working together the designer and the analysts make up a Statement of Work for the WCCA to
be done. For example:

On the SEVC INTERFACE SCHEMATIC (24899) the following circuit functions are to be analyzed for worst
case performance:

SCHEMATIC DESIGNATOR ATTRIBUTES LIMITS

U8A & U8B Current Integrator Reset timing 10VDC to 0VDC in 1.2msec
Linearity 0.23% best straight line 0 - 10 VDC
Offsets <45mV
U21, 32,33,34 Local Memory Bus Set time Per WC Part Parameter Database
Hold time Per WC Part Parameter Database

The table above must be approved by the component design lead engineer before the analysis begins.

3
STEP 2&3

Part Parameter variations

Since the purpose of the WCCA is to evaluate the circuit performance due to part parameter variations,
these variations need to be determined and documented. As a minimum a given part parameter will change
from its nominal value due to:

A. INITIAL TOLERANCE
B. TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
C. RADIATION EFFECTS
D. END OF LIFE (AGING) EFFECTS

For some parts, factors such as humidity, vacuum and applied voltage must also be considered. The data
sheet for the part usually provides this information. The initial tolerance and temperature effects are
likewise given in the data sheet. The parameter variations from all of the effects are added together with
the proper sign to obtain the numerical value for the maximum and minimum value to be used in the
WCCA.

Radiation effects are dependant upon the spacecraft shielding and the test condition used. The parameter
variations due to radiation are to be obtained from the program’s part engineer. To request this information
use the following form:

PART PROGRAM WHERE USED PARAMETER VARIATION DUE TO

DESCRIPTION RADIATION
LM139 ISS SHUNT CNTRL Vos 2.3 mV
" " " Ios 35nA
REF01 KEPLER CEU DONWLINK Vout 12 mV

Leave this column blank,

the part engineer will complete it.

The end-of-life data (EOL) data is shown in Appendix A. While these parameter variations have been
determined based on a 10 year mission they are to be used on all programs. Special notice should be taken
of the "EOL" factor for microcircuits: instead of adding the variations due to initial tolerance, temperature
and aging (EOL), simply use the parameter value given on the data sheet at the two temperature extremes
allowed for the device (typically -55oC and +125oC). The variation due to radiation (the right most column
in the table above) is then added giving, the Worst Case maximum and minimum numerical values to use
in the WCCA calculations.

4
Step 2&3 (continued)

To document the part parameter variations, the data collection forms shown in Figure 1 are to be
completed for each part type used in the WCCA. Additional rows may be added as necessary to address
variations due to factors other then the ones listed (e.g., humidity, applied voltage, etc.). The top section of
the form simply collects general information while the "Parameter" section is used for a specific part
parameter (Vos, hfe, etc.). Since additional parameters for the same part do not need the general
information repeated, only the "Parameter" sections are required. The parameter variation due to each
effect (temp, EOL, etc.) is entered in the appropriate line in the "Deterministic variation" columns. (The
"Random variation" columns are not used unless the circuit fails the WCCA ). The column labeled "NEG"
would contain the variations that reduce the nominal value, while the "POS" is for those variations that
increase the nominal value. The boxes labeled "Worst Case Minimum" and "Worst Case Maximum"
contain the combined totals of the "NEG" and "POS" columns respectively. Figure 2 shows a example
completed for an RNC resistor. A more involved example for a 2N2907A transistor is given in Figure 3.
An example of a Microcircuit is shown in Figure 4 for an AD713.

If the specific part exhibits parameter variation due to factor others than Initial, Temperature, Radiation
and EOL, then additional rows may be added as needed. Since WCCA is a quality audit of the circuitry
the sources of data used is of great importance. The column "Data Sources" must be completed for each
row.

5
 Part Variation Worksheet for Worst Case Analysis
Program name
Part Number(s)
Generic part type
Description
Case style
o o
Conditions of use: Min Temp ( C): Max Temp ( C):
Radiation Dose (kRAD): Service Life (months):
Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 Worst Case Maximum: 0.00

Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 Worst Case Maximum: 0.00

Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 Worst Case Maximum: 0.00

Figure 1 Part Parameter Variation Sheet

6
 Part Variation Worksheet for Worst Case Analysis
Program nameI ISS NORTH BUS RIU
Part Number(s) RNC55HXXXXFP
Generic part type RNC55H
Description RESISTOR, +1%
Case style
Conditions of use: Min Temp (oC): -10 Max Temp (oC): 68
Radiation Dose (kRAD): 50 Service Life (months): 120
Parameter: Resistance Symbol:
Nominal Value: any Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial -1.00 1.00 MIL-PRF-55182G Percent change
Low temp. -0.18 MIL-PRF-55182G -0.005%/C
High temp. 0.22 MIL-PRF-55182G +0.005%/C
Radiation 0.00 0.00 N/A
End-of-life -1.00 1.00 EOL DATA Web Site, +1% change

Worst Case Minimum: -2.18 % Worst Case Maximum: 2.22 %

Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 Worst Case Maximum: 0.00

Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 db Worst Case Maximum: 0.00 db

Figure 2 Part Parameter Variation Sheet for an RNC 1% resistor

7
Part Variation Worksheet for Worst Case Analysis
Program nameI ISS NORTH BUS RIU
Part Number(s) JANS2N2907A (19500/219H)
Generic part type 2N2907A
Description Transistor, switching, PNP
Case style
o o
Conditions of use: Min Temp ( C): -55 Max Temp ( C): 125
Radiation Dose (kRAD): 100 Service Life (months): 120
Parameter: Gain at VCE = 10V, IC = 1mA Symbol: HFE
Nominal Value: 225 Units: na
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial 100.00 450.00 19500/219H
Low temp. -27.00 Motorola data sheet 27% reduction
High temp. 157.50 Motorola data sheet 35% increase
Radiation -10.00 45.00 Radiation Engr +10% change
End-of-life -25.00 112.50 EOL DATA Web site, +25% change

Worst Case Minimum: 38.00 Worst Case Maximum: 765.00

Parameter: Gain at VCE = 10V, IC = 10mA Symbol: HFE

Nominal Value: 150 Units: na
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial 100.00 300.00 19500/219H Assumed max = 3 * min
Low temp. -40.00 Motorola data sheet 40 % reduction
High temp. 240.00 Motorola data sheet 80% increase
Radiation -10.00 30.00 Radiation Engr +10% change
End-of-life -25.00 75.00 EOL DATA Web site, +25% change

Worst Case Minimum: 25.00 Worst Case Maximum: 645.00

Parameter: Gain at VCE = 10V, IC = 150mA Symbol: HFE

Nominal Value: 150.00 Units: na
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial 100.00 300.00 19500/219H
Low temp. -38.00 Motorola data sheet 38% reduction
High temp. 180.00 Motorola data sheet 60% increase
Radiation -10.00 30.00 Radiation Engr
End-of-life -25.00 75.00 EOL DATA Web site, +25% change

Worst Case Minimum: 27.00 Worst Case Maximum: 585.00

Figure 3 Part Parameter Variation Sheet for a 2N2907A

8
 Part Variation Worksheet for Worst Case Analysis
Program name ISS NORTH BUS RIU
Part Number(s) 5962-9063301MCX
Generic part type AD713
Description Quad BiFET Op-Amp
Case style 14 pin DIP
Conditions of use: Min Temp (oC): -55 Max Temp (oC): 125
Radiation Dose (kRAD): 50 Service Life (months): 120
Parameter: Input Offset Voltage Symbol: Vos
Nominal Value: +0.5 Units: mV
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial -2.00 2.00 SMD Over full temp
Low temp. 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial
High temp. 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial
Radiation -0.80 0.80 RADIATION ENGR Radiation Database
End-of-life 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial

Worst Case Minimum: -2.80 mV Worst Case Maximum: 2.80 mV

Parameter: Input Bias Current Symbol: Ib

Nominal Value: +40 Units: pA
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial -154.00 154.00 SMD Over full temp
Low temp. 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial
High temp. 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial
Radiation -82.00 82.00 RADIATION ENGR Radiation Database
End-of-life 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial

Worst Case Minimum: -236.00 pA Worst Case Maximum: 236.00 pA

Parameter: Common Mode Rejection Ratio Symbol: CMRR

Nominal Value: -80.00 Units: db
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial -72.00 0.00 SMD Over full temp
Low temp. 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial
High temp. 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial
Radiation 3.00 0.00 RADIATION ENGR Radiation Database
End-of-life 0.00 0.00 SMD Included in initial

Worst Case Minimum: -69.00 db Worst Case Maximum: 0.00 db

Figure 4 Part Parameter Variation Sheet for a AD713

9
STEP 4

Worst Case Circuit Mathematical Methodology

The Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) methodology is to be used in calculating circuit performance. In this
approach the circuitry is examined to determine the part parameters that results in the worst possible
performance of the circuitry. The circuit performance is then calculated assuming that these parameters
values occur simultaneously.

If the circuit fails to meet its performance criteria the analyst should investigate the acceptability of
statistically combining the contributors to the part parameter variation. Part parameter variations can be
grouped into correlated and random variations. Correlated is taken to mean the relationship between the
parameter value and the independent variable (temperature, radiation, etc.) can be expressed as a single
valued function. Random is taken to mean the relationship between the parameter value change and the
originating cause (temperature, radiation) cannot be expressed as a single valued function. All the
correlated variations should be added (or subtracted if the sign is negative) while the random variations
should be combined using the root sum of the squares method. The column labeled "Random variations"
on the Part Variation sheets are used in applying this method of recalculating the part parameter used in the
circuit analysis. (See Figure 5 for an example). The use of statistically combining parameter variations
must be quantitatively justified in the final report.

If the circuit still fails then the Root Sum of Squares (RSS) or the Monte Carlos (MC) methodology may be
considered at the circuit level. The both RSS and MC are statistical approaches that make use of the
potential random variations of the part parameters, and as such the mathematical justification must be
provided in the report. Appendix B provides more detailed information on all three approaches.

10
 Part Variation Worksheet for Worst Case Analysis
Program name NSTAR NORTH BUS RIU
Part Number(s) RNC55HXXXXFP
Generic part type RNC55H
Description RESISTOR, +1%
Case style
o o
Conditions of use: Min Temp ( C): -10 Max Temp ( C): 68
Radiation Dose (kRAD): 50 Service Life (months): 120
Parameter: Resistance Symbol:
Nominal Value: any Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial 0.00 0.00 1.00 See (1) below Percent change
Low temp. -0.18 MIL-PRF-55182G -0.005%/C
High temp. 0.22 MIL-PRF-55182G +0.005%/C
Radiation 0.00 0.00 N/A
End-of-life 0.00 0.00 1.00 See (1) below

Worst Case Minimum: 1.24 % Worst Case Maximum: 1.63 %

(1) From NSTAR Design Note DN 089-143 (study of resistors in NSTAR storage)

Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 Worst Case Maximum: 0.00

Parameter: Symbol:
Nominal Value: Units:
Deterministic variation Random variation
NEG POS (+/-) Data Source Notes
Initial
Low temp.
High temp.
Radiation
End-of-life

Worst Case Minimum: 0.00 db Worst Case Maximum: 0.00 db

Figure 5 Example of using RSS at the part level

11
STEP 5

REPORT FORMAT
The results of the WCCA analysis are to be documented using the following report format:

WORST CASE CIRCUIT ANALYSIS

REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction .....................................................................................................................

2.0 Summary .....................................................................................................................

3.0 Applicable Documents ....................................................................................................

4.0 Assumptions and Groundrules ........................................................................................

5.0 Detailed Analysis .............................................................................................................

5.1 Circuit Description ..........................................................................................................

5.2 Worst Case Circuit Analysis ...........................................................................................

6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ...............................................................................

Appendix ....................................................................................................................................

12
STEP 6 (Continued)

1.0 Introduction

This section states what was analyzed. It includes a list of the specific
circuits that were examined and the pass/fail criteria for each.

2.0 Summary

This section provides a brief listing of the results, specifically the circuits that
FAILED.

3.0 Applicable Documents

This section lists those documents that were used in the analysis. (Schematics,
P/Ls, performance specs, etc.)

4.0 Assumptions and Groundrules

This very important section lists and explains all assumptions and groundrules used in the
analyses. The difference between an assumption and a groundrule is: an assumption is what you
made, a groundrule is what you were told to use.

5.0 Detailed Results

This section contains the technical details.

5.1 Circuit Description

Provide a description of each circuit analyzed.

5.2 Worst Case Circuit Analysis

Contains the actual circuit analysis calculations.

6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations

This is where you wrap up the report. Tell the audience what you did, what you found and what
they should do about it (redesign, additional testing , more analyses, etc.)

APPENDIX

Put the part parameter variation sheets here. May also include documents,
(e-mail, spice/saber netlists, etc.) that are referenced elsewhere in the report.

13
 Appendix A
(Example only)
End of life (EOL) factors to use in performing Worst Case Circuit Analyses

The EOL design limits for parts are the expected variation in the electrical parameters
of parts for which allowance made be made in circuit design. The parameter variations
are expressed as a percentage change from the specified initial minimum or maximum
values. The EOL design limits to be used as guidelines are extracted from MIL-STD-
1547.
EOL DESIGN LIMITS

Applicable End-of-Life
Part Type MIL-Spec Parameter Design Limits
Capacitors
Ceramic, CKS MIL-C-123 C ± 21%
(General Purpose BX)
IR -50 %
Ceramic, CKS MIL-C-123 C(3) ± 0.5% OR 0.45 pF,
Temperature Compensated whichever is greater
BP)
IR -50%
Metallized Film, CRH MIL-PRF-83421 C ± 2%
IR -30%
Metallized Film, CHS MIL-C-87217 C ± 2%
IR -30%
Glass, CYR MIL-C-23269 C ± 0.5% OR 0.5 pF,
whichever is greater
IR 500,000 Megohms @
o
25 C.
50,000 Megoohms @
o
125 C
Mica, CMS MIL-C-87164 C ± 0.5%
IR -30%
Tantalum, Foil, CLR MIL-C-39006 C ± 15%
DCL +130%
Tantalum, Slug, CLR MIL-C-39006 C ± 10%
DCL +130%
Tantalum, Solid, MIL-PRF-39003 C ± 10 %
CSS and CWR MIL-C-55365
Variable Piston MIL-C-14409 C ±5%
IR -30%
Variable Ceramic MIL-C-81 C(1) ±0.5pF
1) EOL Design Limits were derived from MIL-STD-1547, except those annotated.
o o
2) Use maximum specification limit for wide temperature range (-55 C to +125 C) for total worst-case
tolerance (EOL and temperature).
3) Derived from NASA Parts Application Handbook, MIL-HDBK-978.

14
 EOL DESIGN LIMITS (Continued)

Applicable End-of-Life
Part Type MIL-Spec Parameter Design Limits
Resistors
Film, RLR MIL-PRF-39017 R ±2%
Film, RNC MIL-PRF-55182 R ±1%
Film, RNC90Y (Vishay) MIL-PRF-55182 R(1) ±0.1%
Wire Wound, RBR (Accurate) MIL-R-39005 R ±0.5%
Wire Wound, RWR (Power) MIL-PRF-39007 R ±1%
Wire Wound, RER (Chassis MIL-PRF-39009 R ±1%
Mount)
Network, RZO MIL-PRF-83401 R ±1%
Chip, Thick Film MIL-PRF-55342 R(1) ±2%
Chip, Thin Film, Tantalum MIL-PRF-55342 R(1) ±0.5%
Nitiride, (IRC only)
Thermistors, Glass Bead, Neg MIL-T-23648 R ±1.3%
TC
Bead Encapsulated, Pos TC R ±1.8%
Disc, Pos or Neg TC R ±5%
EMI Filters MIL-PRF-28861 C ±20%
IR -50%
Coils, RF Molded MIL-C-39010 L(1) ±3%
Q(1) ±6%
Transistors MIL-PRF-19500 HFE(1) ±25%
ICBO(1) +100%
ICES(1) +100%
ICEX(1) +100%
VBE ±0.01V
VCE(sat) ±15%
VTH(MOSFETS) (1) +0.1, -0.0v
Diodes MIL-PRF-19500 VF ±1%
IR +100%
VZ(1) ±1%
Microcircuits* MIL-M-38510 (2)
1) EOL Design Limits were derived from MIL-STD-1547, except those annotated.
o o
2) Use maximum specification limit for wide temperature range (-55 C to +125 C) for
total worst-case tolerance (EOL and temperature).
3) Derived from NASA Parts Application Handbook, MIL-HDBK-978.

If a part type is not shown contact Parts Engineering

15
 Appendix B

Calculation Methodology

Three calculation methodologies are recognized as suitable for the performance of a WCCA: 1) Extreme
Value Analysis (EVA), 2) Root Sum of Squares (RSS) and 3) Monte Carlo analysis (MC). The EVA
method is always used as the primary approach. If the circuit fails the performance criteria, either the
RSS or MC method may be used with mathematical justification provided in the report.

Extreme Value Analysis (EVA)

This approach assumes that all part parameters are at their respective extreme values such that the circuit
performance deviates the most from its nominal value. As an example consider a simple two resistor
voltage divider circuit feed by a battery. The nominal output voltage is given by

⎡ R2 ⎤
VOUT = VBAT ⋅ ⎢
⎣ R1 + R 2 ⎥⎦
By inspection it is seen the VOUT has a maximum value of

⎡ R 2 MAX ⎤
VOUTMAX = VBATMAX ⋅ ⎢ ⎥
⎣ R1MIN + R 2 MAX ⎦

and a minimum value of

⎡ R 2 MIN ⎤
VOUTMIN = VBATMIN ⋅ ⎢ ⎥
⎣ R1MAX + R 2 MIN ⎦

The min/max values to use for VBAT, R1 and R2 are obtained from their part parameter variation sheets.

16
 Root Sum of Squares

The probability of all part parameters simultaneously aligning in the various combinations that produce
worst case circuit performance is very small. In reality some variations will cancel out other variations
leading to less departure from the nominal circuit performance then is given by an EVA. This fact may be
addressed through the use of statistical circuit calculations commonly known as the Root Sum of Squares
(RSS) technique. Basically the objective is to calculate the standard deviation of the circuit attribute (e.g.,
Vout) due to random variations in part parameters (e.g., hfe, VOS, etc.). Assuming that the standard
deviation (σ) for each part parameter is known, then the standard deviation of the circuit attribute is:
(using the voltage divider example from above)

⎛ ⎛ ∂V ⎞
2
⎞ ⎛ ⎛ ∂V ⎞ ⎛ ⎞
⎟ + ⎜ ⎜ OUT ⋅ σ ⎞⎟ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎛⎜ ∂VOUT ⋅ σ ⎞⎟ ⎟
2 2

σV = ⎜ ⎜⎜ OUT ⋅ σ VBAT ⎟⎟
out
⎜ ⎝ ∂V BAT ⎠ ⎟ ⎜ ⎝ ∂R1 R1
⎠ ⎟⎠ ⎜⎝ ⎝ ∂R 2
R2
⎠ ⎟⎠
⎝ ⎠ ⎝

Accordingly the worst case values of VOUT are:

(
VOUTMAX = VOUTNOM + 3 ⋅ σ VOUT )
and

(
VOUTMIN = VOUTNOM − 3 ⋅ σ VOUT )

It is important to note that the RSS technique is appropriate only for linear transfer functions and even then
the following three conditions must be met:

1. The part parameter variations are normally distributed.

2. The part parameter variations are independent of each other.
3. The actual average value of the part parameter must equal the statistical mean.

The requirement of a linear transfer function may be relaxed somewhat by taking a Taylor series expansion
about the operating point and discarding second and higher terms (provided that the resultant error is
acceptable). Of the conditions given above, (3) is probably the most difficult to prove in the spacecraft
industry. It states, for instance, that if the circuit uses 1K +5% resistors then average value of the actual
resistors from the storeroom must be 1K. This simply implies that, indeed, some parts will be on the high
side while others will be on the low side resulting in the desired cancellation effects. For mass production
where parts are bought in large quantities this most likely is true. However, parts are typically purchased
in small lots. Intuitively it would seem that in this case part parameters might very well be all on the high
side or all on the low side and thus would not cancel out. Additionally some parameters are correlated to
the operating environment (e.g., hfe vs temperature) in which case a modified RSS analysis must be used
by combining the results of an EVA approach on the correlated parameters and RSSing the truly random
parameters. All of these difficulties require that mathematical justification be provided when using the
RSS methodology.

17
 Monte Carlo analysis

The Monte Carlo technique is also a statistical analysis that circumvents some of the short comings of the
RSS analysis. Basically, MC is a analytical description of a pilot production run from which the
probability of obtaining a working circuit may be found (even if only one spacecraft in being built). For
the electronic circuitry normally used in spacecraft, computer tools such as Spice and Saber make the MC
approach viable. It still is imperative to obtain the actual distributions for the parameters of interest, but
once obtained the power of the computer may be brought to bear on the analysis problem. The output of a
MC analysis is then the probability that the circuit will work correctly. This probability is to be reported at
the 95% confidence level in the final report along with the quantitative justification of the distributions
used.

18