Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
LOGICAL PROBLEM
OF
INDUCTION
G. H.
Professor
VON WRIGHT
of Philosophy
in the University
'
&
c*f
Helsinki
a ODDIL DE*?smt, a
164
W94L
Warigh-t
67-12405
$6OQ
DATE DUE
1
196?
GEORG HENRIK
Professor
WRIGHT
VON
oj Philosophy
University of Helsingfors
New
York
INC,
(Fasc. Ill
SECOND EDITION
1957
REPRINTED JUNE
1965
To
EINO KAILA
first
accomplish what they, often at least, claim to achieve. In a concluding chapter I try to show why this 'failure' on the part of any
attempted justification of induction is inevitable, and why the view
that it has catastrophic implications rests on a misunderstanding.
Since this book was first published, there has been a noticeable
revival of interest in Inductive Logic. The new interest, however,
has chiefly been in theformal aspects of the relation between premisses
and conclusion in inductive arguments. The two main branches of
this formal study may be called Elimination-Theory and Confirmation-Theory. The former is a further development of the tradition in
inductive logic founded by Bacon. The latter is essentially a theory
of inductive probability. In another work, called A Treatise on
&
for a
more profound
PREFACE
the treatment of synthetical judgments a priori in Chap.
now think is superficial.
II,
which
conform
elimination which
&
(Chaps. Ill
To Section
my
IV).
PREFACE
on induction,
in this section
historical material.
I have no claim to
But I have perhaps
be of interest even
omitted from
lists
others as irrelevant.
it
works and
and probability.
students will find
It
it
on the
articles
useful.
am most
book
to
my
first
master in
and philosophy
in
my
country.
CONTENTS
PREFACE
I.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Justification a priori
of induction.
13
22
27
29
Fries.
6.
Some
7.
33
38
priori,
III.
II.
Vii
The way
in
Some examples.
Conventionalism as an 'elimination' of the
40
tive investigations.
2.
in-
46
ductive problem.
3.
4.
48
.
50
2.
3.
a posteriori of induction.
Induction and discovery. Induction and deduc-
54
55
Justification
The
by
elimination.
60
CONTENTS
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
64
value of the
73
Difference.
76
induction.
81
The
eliminative
method and
the justification of
induction.
V. INDUCTION
84
AND PROBABILITY
1.
The
85
88
VI.
86
90
97
102
112
5.
117
6.
122
7.
127
4.
8.
Probability,
scope and
from analogy.
Reasoning
simplicity.
Mathematical and philosophi132
cal probability.
2.
3.
4.
5.
138
Bernoulli.
144
Probability
149
relative
141
153
CONTENTS
VIII.
mode
IX.
Peirce.
59
2.
163
3.
167
policies reconsidered.
justifying
176
induction.
2.
3.
The
The
178
183
philosophy.
NOTES
185
BIBLIOGRAPHY
227
Xll
CHAPTER
Inductive inference
and
BY an
If this conclusion
applies to
class,
we
an unlimited number of
We
e.g.
member which
definition of
me
today, or that
l
if I
put
my hand
into the
am making
where there
is
Also in many
inference, we may be
inductive inference.
no question of conscious
cases,
said to 'act inductively'.
i.e.
members
are
it
possible, provided certain conditions
inference must necessarily be
that
an
inductive
prove
what are these conditions? Or, if this be not the case, is it
fulfilled, to
valid,
and
induced proposition
by
these questions
itself
we
as conclusion.
problem of
With it can be contrasted the question of the factual origin
of inductions from observations, i.e. of the psychological conditions
that are essential for the discovery of invariances and laws in the flux
of phenomena, and of the practical rules of scientific methodology,
which can be abstracted from those conditions. This problem, which
falls outside the scope of the present treatise, might be called
It deserves mention that
the psychological problem of induction.
whereas philosophy of induction in England has been predominantly concerned with the former aspect of the problem, French
authors on questions of induction have mostly taken interest in the
induction.
latter.
justify
it
i.e.
may
fall
within
Our
different cases.
(1)
that
is
to say,
it is
[AX+BX},
W(y)[Ax&Ay+B(x,y)].
(2)
'properties'
of single objects.
'primitive *.
(x)(y)[F(x y)~(Ax+By)],
(3)
this kind,
write
and when
them
it is
useful to state
in the simplest
form
(1),
them
in
symbols we
shall
is re*
quired.
With
tions in
the Universal Inductions can be contrasted those generalizawhich we infer that something will be true not of all the
members of a
class,
we
Generalizations. 8
infinite
members
N
z==i
\n>m&
(Elq)(*)(xJ(ExJ\n>m&
L
(4)
In order to understand
each instance of A as
=pe
n
i
I
this
it
which the
number
ratio,
of
all
e can be
any amount however small. We say, in other
a
if
words, that proportion p of the elements which are A are also
,
/>
where
that
cases
are 5.
condition
apply.
That
'empiri-
cally given'.
is
itself
of
The question of
the concept.
two types of
falsified if
generalization.
a single proposition
Aa &~Ba
6
is
at least
it is
false to
percentage.
Statistical Generalizations
nor
which simply follows from what we mean by saying that such and
such a proportion of the elements in a class have a certain property,
must not be considered alarming from an epistemological point of
view. 10
It must further be noted that from the logical structure of the
formulae (1)
(4) it follows that a Universal Generalization is not
a special or extreme case of a Statistical Generalization, that is to
say a Statistical Generalization where the proportion in question is
1.
For a proportion 1 or 100 per cent of the ^4's might be 5, and
there might still exist an infinite multitude of A's which are not
B. Conversely, that
per cent of the A's are B is in no way
incompatible with the existence of an infinite number of ^4's which
arej?. 11
(x)
(5)
3.
Remarks about
this
{Ax-+(Ey) [By&R
(x, y)]}.
Induction
and eduction.
known
Of
this
kind of induction he
and
likewise the
skilled
unknown'.
to the
long-lived.
It
is
Therefore
all
all
10
instance of
is
It is essential
know-
11
ledge of particulars is possible only through sense-perception.
Text-books on inductive logic usually mention only the two
first
is
It is
also called
problematic.
induction. 15
name
best
for
it
seems to us to be ampliattve
which
first
Summative and
types of argument.
it is
and
is
argument
is
'ampliative'
its
means
premisses,
i.e.
that
its
does not
Ampliative induction, though in itself inconclusive, may neverbe turned into a conclusive argument, when supplemented by
theless
A and
A and
.-.
Ally's are
A n can be interpreted
A and
are properties (classes). A l
alternatively as classes or as individuals. The example from Aristotle,
quoted above, answers to the first interpretation.
Summative induction
is
its
premisses.
9
we sometimes
presents
induction which
ficial
name we
any finite
counts as eduction
even if this number of new instances should
happen, with the old ones, to exhaust the class in question. It follows
from this convention that (genuine) generalization
always pertains to
a numerically unrestricted
class of cases.
('potentially infinite')
legitimately
more
explicit:
Let us assume that all ,4's so far observed have been B. On the
basis of this we are
the next
willing to assert that the next
(or
which turns up
few)
must be due
held "responsible* for the fact that all ,4's so far observed have been
B. If C is present in an A, then this A will be 5. But if C is absent
from an A 9 B may be absent too. Thus the eduction that the next
be
B gets its
will
this C,
The
Carnap
attitude
is
(laws)
28
This fact, however,
probability relative to their confirming evidence.
would seem to us to indicate a peculiar limitation in Carnap's theory
is
importance and
12
CHAPTER
II
Justification
a priori of induction.
A to 5,
began
causally connected with B.
with the observation of a certain regularity, and found upon closer
sometimes happens that we can 'explain' the sequence from
e.g.
by discovering that
We
is
We
2.
Hume's
theory of causation.
may
first
of
all
occurs
it
will
be followed by
But the
B.
In this case
we
Here
is
it
must
called a necessary
condition of B.
A and B
the
an
inductive
of
of
above-mentioned
any
generalization
justifies
types, we have to examine the logical structure of the relation between
cause and effect. For the purpose of this investigation we can follow
the lines of Hume. It must be noted that Hume, in speaking about
cause and effect, chiefly had in mind relations where one term is a
In order to see whether a causal connection between
where
this
happens,
all I
number of such
will
there is no impression
corresponding to the idea of 'necessary
connection' between cause and effect, we can
safely conclude that
such a connection does not actually exist. Of course we have not
therewith denied the existence of the idea of such a connection. The
origin of this idea is a very interesting psychological problem. Hume
himself, as is well known, ascribed its origin to the force of habit. 7
Secondly, Hume in discussing causality does not distinguish
sharply the phenomenological aspect of the question from the
physical one. It is, strictly speaking, not clear whether his analysis
of causal connection applies to the way in which our
impressions of
the external objects are connected or to the connection between the
we
shall conceive of
For
this
purpose
Hume's theory of
consider these objects in themselves. 9 We may re-state this formulation in the following way: From
propositions asserting the existence
of a certain object or the happening of a certain event, 10 can never
follow propositions asserting the existence of another object or the
'
first
means
first
of
word
all
separate happenings.
'different'
that
we
we
call their
second event
is
logical difference.
to say that the difference between the events was only Apparent'.)
It must be observed that the arguments of Hume apply only to cases
and
we
a&b
equivalence a*
'different' in
Hume's
when reformulated
wholly
And
third, that
We
Hume
Nor do we wish
impossibility
to causal connections.
this
17
We
to be the case.
common
so
about
its
tive influence
upon
science,
is
We
'synthetical' to
mean
mean
that which
logically necessary
is
neither logically
16
necessary nor self-contradictory.
when
the
word
'follow'
is
i.e.
it
implies.
It is at this point that Hume, in our opinion, took a great step
forward in comparison with his predecessors. The fact that reasoning
from cause to
scientific inquiry, is
keinem Punkte
17
xiber die antike Skepsis hinausgelangt'.
It is
18
a most
by Leibniz, who
after
tium.' 23
Hume's
this
assumption
is
unjustified.
we
think, consists in
We
or not.
It is therefore
within a certain
that the proposition that B must follow
is made the standard for the truth of the expression
was not a "real" A\ And if this
'either B has escaped notice or
way
interval of time
i.e.
valid because
is to be true a
priori, then we must adopt the second of the two
above alternatives. But then, as it has been shown, the proposition
becomes analytical. This on the other hand contradicts the condition
that the relation between A and B was synthetical., Therefore the
it
to be true
a priori
is
a synthetical causal
contradictory.
Thus the 'more than a mere psychological fact' that is contained
in the assertion that B necessarily follows upon A, cannot, whatever
20
this
of
this assertion
regularity to
as an expression of increased confidence in the
proposition that
will follow A. (This stronger
of
confidence
or reliability, by
feeling
the way, is one of the reasons why we speak of certain
generalizations
as 'laws of nature', as opposed to others as
being mere 'general
24
facts',
in this truth.
it is
How
know
The
21
we endeavour
Hume
about
show
3.
to
how we can
The
problem that
a priori arguments.
22
and
'before'
different.
objective time,
we have
to examine
more
it
our
My sensations of the various parts of the wall are, in the phenomenological sense, temporally related.
floating
down
a stream.
I also
Here again
follow with
my
my
eye a vessel
'after' in the
mind
How
does the
We
dem
gebunden.
In
ineine
sensa-
As
causality*.
The
is
24
in order that we
may be able to speak
opposed to a world of sensations, it is a
i.e.
system
which regulate our subjective experiences, 14 If there were no invariance, no law and order in the realm of sensations, there would
15
be no physical world and no
Kant's
inter-subjective experience.
would
thus
not
be
'Erfahrung'
possible.
Kant is not the first philosopher to have the idea that the
physical
is the invariance in the
phenomenal. Leibniz had already formulated
the idea clearly. 16 What is new in Kant is, above
all, the idea of 'defrom
the
of
ducing'
conception
inter-subjective experience itself a
set of rules to which the invariances
defining the physical world have
to conform. With one of these rules we are
already familiar, namely
the Universal Law of Causation, the deduction of which has been
outlined above. 17 It states that 'alles, was
geschieht (anhebt zu sein),
18
setzt etwas voraus, worauf es nach einer
Regel folgt'.
To the rules which are deduced from the general idea of 'Erfahrung' there correspond certain general concepts, called the cate1*
The category corresponding to the Universal Law of
Causation is that of Causality. The rules are said to subsume the
experiential content of the sensations under the general concepts of
20
gories.
the categories.
According to
Kant
subsumption takes
necessary
condition for the possibility of
inter-subjective experience. They
cannot be contradicted by experience, because experience itself
presupposes them.
therefore
according to Kant,
and does the
doctrine of Kant have any bearing upon the
problem of Hume?
The answer to these questions can be got from studying again
the arguments in the Second Analogy. The
synthetical aspect of
synthetical
and a priori.
is,
25
again in that the prevalence of causality (for past and for future
experience alike) can be used to define an objective time-order. Now
From
and to the
proved a priori.
among thein causal laws, have held true hitherto, and that
henceforth no inductions or no inductions of a certain
type are
going to hold true also, then
will not be
inductions,
if
inter-subjective experience
possible any more. But that which would be necessary in order to
justify induction, does not follow from this, viz, that causality and
induction are actually going to hold also for the
future, or, generally
speaking, that inter-subjective experience is going to continue.
4.
Kant and
the
application-problem.
reicht
27
Universal
is
to a justifica-
tion of
any
show just
the opposite. 8
Later, however, in the Kritik der Urtheilskraft Kant is quite clear
as to the impossibility of deducing special laws of nature from the
tried to
Universal
Law
being
The
Our
Universal
Law
Furthermore
it
show
the
it
analytical,
or
it
we
This impossibility follows from the idea that those judgments must
be proved, i.e. deduced from superior principles. Fries speaks of this
idea as 'das rationalistische Vorurtheil'. 5
Fries himself tried to establish synthetical judgments a
priori by
reference to a source of knowledge, called by him 'unmittelbare
Erkenntnis'. 6 This immediate knowledge is a sort of mental fact,
which
is
7
'urtheilsmassig wiederholt' in the
29
form of synthetical
establish or justify. 9
Even if the criticism of Fries
some
judgments than the rejected one. That such is the case can be shown
by an example.
Suppose the judgment that all A's are B to be synthetical and a
priori according to the theory of Fries. Suppose further that somebody claims to have found an A which is not B. This, a Friesian
would say, is impossible as we know that all A's are B. But what does
it mean that we 'know' this? It may mean, for
example, that we use
the predicates A and B in such a way that always when A is present
we say that B is present also. If somebody claims to have found an
A without B, we should tell him that either A was no 'real' A, or A
was only 'apparently' lacking B. In this case, however, the proposition that all A's are B would be analytical as it provides us with a
standard for when the proposition 'either A is not a real A' or 'A is
only apparently lacking 5' is true. Therefore this possibility must be
ruled out.
But if, by 'knowing' that all A's are B, we mean something else,
whatever it may be, we cannot exclude the possibility of there being
an A which 'genuinely', and not merely 'apparently' lacks B. This
is seen by
considering how the phrase 'apparently lacking -B' may be
defined. It can be defined as above, i.e. the predicate B is used in
such a way that it is attributed to all A's, for which reason every
(real) A in which B is not as yet detected is said 'apparently* to lack
B. This, however, is not the only possible, nor the most natural
definition of the phrase. 'A apparently lacks 5* can also mean that it
30
merely escaped
This again means that we cannot exclude the
possibility that the judgment 'A is not J5' is true, or in other words
our attention so
that
far.
we cannot be
mean something
which makes the proposition not analytical
which can perfectly
well be the case
then the proposition can never at the same time
be true a priori. Thus the Friesian way of establishing synthetical
If,
We
such as the Universal Law of Causation, but also every special law
How is this to be
of nature were a synthetical proposition a priori
understood?
The explanation seems to be something like the following: From
a system of general principles alone it can be deduced that if there is
31
A then it must be B, but not that A's actually exist. Thus for the
establishment of the general proposition that all A's are B induction
is necessary in order to show that A's being B actually exist, and
deduction again is necessary in order to prove the universality of this
fact. 13 Thus induction may be called the bridge which leads from the
any
truths.
14
to the necessary
15
/= $
Beobachtung machen,
es nicht
32
We
that in the only case where one of the adherents of the Friesian
theory faces this question, he apparently decides in favour of the
former alternative, without, however, realizing that therewith he has
also given up the doctrine about judgments being both
synthetical
put
forward in opposition to Hume's view about causation, also lead to
difficulties which point in the same direction for their solution.
6.
of
Some
It
all
common
Thus
meanings that this thesis might have, and its bearing on Hume 's results.
The proposition that it is possible to arrive at general knowledge
from singular facts or to anticipate an event B after the observation
of the event A can mean all sorts of different things. It may first of all
mean that as a matter of fact singular facts suggest to us general
conclusions. This is no mere truism but a point of considerable
importance,
if
we
is
totally different
from
the cause
is
nor
is
which
is
the case
is
we
live
34
of how
explanation
we
We
upon
this
The
fact that
10
Sameness here of
repeatedly really is the same A in all the cases.
course does not mean spatio-temporal identity but sameness in the
tion
is
we can
include the property of having the occurrence of B as a logical consequence. On the other hand, if we do not define sameness in this way
?
which
is
we cannot be
proposition. And if we
sure in advance of
define sameness so
sure of this then the proposition becomes analytical.
this because it follows from the definition of two A's
being 'the
we can be
same'.
Thus
the theory of
Meyerson
to
make
It
power.
that
to the
it is
necessary only to
XYZ
we must assume
the members of
produce
that
the
is
by
always
becomes
analytical. If the theory of concrete universals was intended to establish the proposition as
synthetical and true a priori,
it has failed to do so.
We
37
it is
not
7.
The reader should have observed above that when we have had to
show the inefficiency of a certain philosophical theory to guarantee
a priori the truth of a general synthetical proposition, we have always
made use of one and the same 'technique'. Finally, we must say a
few words about the justification of this 'technique', and about the
general significance of the results at which we arrive by its aid.
The method used by us has been, generally speaking, as follows:
Suppose that the proposition 'all A's are 5' is said to be synthetical
and a priori. Suppose also that somebody maintains that there is
an A which is not B. How is such a situation to be judged?
The possibility that the latter of the two assertions about A and B
is true can be excluded, it seems, in two
ways. Either we use the
terms A and B in such a way that the phrase 'A is not B' would
contradict that use; or, if this is not done, the proposition is shown
some other reason., (e.g. careless observation, a mistake
to be false for
exactly
which
what
is
not
is
if its
truth
is
to
Consequently the
be guaranteed a priori, must be analytical
it is
possible
to
38
an
to give
is
The word
things.
to
It is plausible to
when we
several different
like
word
employ the
judgment a
may mean
say
say that as a matter offact it might happen that somebody asserts a
proposition of a form contradictory to the form of the general
proposition, and this possibility cannot be denied by anybody.
We can thus end this chapter with the conclusion that the only way
39
CHAPTER
III
The way
Some
.in
examples.
melting-point of phosphorus
at this result in
is
what may be
K, L,
M, which does
previous generalization as
this fact
imply that our
to the melting-point of
phosphorus is
falsified?
this is
44
stances whatsoever.
in common.
In so far as the generalization 'all
pieces of phosphorus melt at 44 C' is to mean that, whenever in the
future we find a substance with the first-mentioned properties, it will
exhibit the further discovered property too, then this generalization
melting-point
is
We
41
bother.
hand
i.e.
we
in this
way
of
melting at 44
is
or
is
'
'
42
why
its
existence.
We
43
it is of fundamental
us
that
the
as
has
shown
law,
originally enunciated,
importance.
was still incomplete in its formulation, that instead of saying that
whenever one ball strikes another the second one will move, we
intended to say that whenever one ball strikes another the second
ball will move, provided certain circumstances are present, and certain
conditions fulfilled. Of these further conditions and qualifications
there are obviously a great number. They specify, first of all, the
quality of the material used in the experiment: one ball must not be
of iron, the other of paper; the impact must have a certain minimum
It
which the
balls
move must be
a kind.
And
upon by
so on.
need be taken into account, or they are such that the conditions laid
down
in
them are so
trivial
and
44
way.
We
possible
may, for
certain definite
instance,
number
The
all
inductive
has not yet been taken into account, and which is absent in this case.
Thus the truth of the induction serves as the norm which guides us in
our search for new qualifications to be added for the purpose of
getting a complete and exhaustive formulation of the law aimed at
in
making the
generalization.
45
general
separately, but are usually both present in connection with the same
induction. As will be remembered, we
supposed in the example of
the melting-point of
that all conditions as to the correct-
phosphorus
from those as to the true
criteria of
phosphorus) were settled. Actually in settling these conditions we
should be confronted with problems such as this: under what
conditions should the measurement of the
temperature take place in
order to be correct? This
question again resembles that of the
or
not
of
presence
counteracting causes in the instance of the billiardballs.
Here
instance
izations
upon
2.
thought in
new idea, he moves along lines of thought which are not always
very far from the ideas which were illustrated above in the example
of the melting-point of phosphorus. 2
Bacon had mentioned
3
induction as an operation by which
concepts are defined. Jevons*
and Mach 5 stress the connection between induction and the classifi6
7
cation of natural phenomena, and
Sigwart and Broad give good
of
how
induction
is used for the formation of scientific
examples
a
concepts.
Mach
between the
as dealt
miscon-
from synthetical
to
analytical,
from
well-established
and
linguistic conventions,
well-
which
synthetical
necessarily true." From the attempt to reconcile these contradictory attributes of one and the same sentence originates the inductive problem in its 'classical' form. When we have
seen that this
attempt was undertaken on the basis of a
the
and
misunderstanding
induction is not
to show how propositions which are
synthetical can also be known
to be true for unexamined
instances, but to show how universal and
is
eliminated.
To justify
15
for the
'
of natural laws.
3.
Then
it
would be
properties
empirical ones,
are regarded as reliable criteria of
phosphorus, then the substance will
melt at 44 C'. Again, in the case of the
proposition concerning the
billiard-balls, we co-ordinate the following synthetical sentence: 'if
we know only that such and such conditions are fulfilled when we make
the experiment, then the
impact of one ball against another will
be followed by the movement of the second one'.
The mere fact that we are able to do the co-ordination is, of course,
trivial. But the further fact
that, in a great number of cases, we use
the co-ordinations to stress the
reliability ascribed by us to certain
inductive generalizations has a
the
of
induction. 1
problem
In order to understand
What
if
we were
it
has,
level.
Nor can we
to radical conven-
What
matters
is
4.
two
different things.
One
is this:
inductive
The other
that such
a generalization is a reliable basis for making predictions? There
is a
strong temptation to regard an answer to the former question as
also an answer to the latter, and this tendency explains why we are
liable to overlook the difference between the two aspects of the
problem of how induction is to be justified. For if I have proved that
it is true that all A's are 5, have I then not also
proved that any
prediction of B on the basis of A will be true?
As we know, there really is a means of proving that all A $ are
generalization to be true?
50
B,
viz.,
dictions.
For
if all
'
is made
by the fact that the proposition 'all ^t's are
absolutely
true per conventionem. 1
(2) Those who emphasize that conventionalism eliminates the
inductive problem seem to have been so
impressed by the fact that
it is
possible to account for the absolute validity which we some-
The
problem, however, originates from more than a mere failure to see that
to justify induction means not only to establish the truth of general
propositions, but also to give rational grounds for the reliability of
predictions. There is a deeper reason, why conventionalism seems to
dispose of the inductive problem as a -whole.
51
Language
science,
is
analytical,
i.e.
i.e.
may
Not
until
am
4
hand, are themselves 'confirmed' by successful predictions.
(4) It must also be observed that if in the case of an apparent
'falsification' of a law, we decide to make the law analytical, this
usually happens because there exists some empirical invariance or
uniformity which, in spite of the exception to it in this case, is
regarded as 'strong' enough to justify the introduction of the
convention. 5 The convention, so to speak, serves the purpose of
it
adds absolute
induction
The importance of
this inexhaustiveness of
language for
revealed to us by the conventionalistic
which the question was discussed above.
is
53
CHAPTER
IV
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
1.
Justification a posteriori
of induction.
IN the previous chapters it was shown that the only way to guarantee a priori the truth of inductive generalizations is to make them
analytical. And from this it followed that we cannot justify a priori
predictions from inductive laws.
The idea of a justification a priori of induction was to make the
proof of inductive propositions independent of the empirical testing
made
in the former.
The
is
thus
deduction.
according to given
Bacon and
The
rules.
Of
of induction of
Mill.
54
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
known
is
is
is
terminology.
In the following sections
2.
'classical*
attempts at
Induction
and deduction as
inverse
operations.
which
all
possible combinations of truth-values of the propositions, except
the case when a is true and b false. Then a truth-function fulfilling
these conditions
is
<2==a&.
becomes the
55
to
way
perform
truth-function. 3
this inverse
We
of an induction
we have
is
obvious. 4
In the case
which we are
to deduce the given data from the law. If the deduction can
carried through, then the supposition that I, is a law of the kind
verified.
be
we
outlined,
are of a rather 'primitive' kind, and that the many beautiful instances
of induction which science affords us are generally peculiar on
account of the element of discovery which they contain. This is the
case in every instance of quantitative induction in which empirical
measurement has provided us with a set of corresponding values of the
variables,
dence.
and we wish
to detect a law or function for this corresponis that in which the values
him of
deduced.
56
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
in the
by Leibniz.
1*
induction
10
by induction and proved by deduction.
the following question must be asked: Does
discovered
Now
this scheme of
foreshadowed in the description of the scientific
method given by two of the greatest geniuses of European thought
and developed to systematic strictness by Whewell, give a justification of induction?
The question ought not to be answered off-hand. The answer
depends upon what we expect a justification of induction to be. It is
not unplausible to assume that when, in advanced sciences, we ask
for a 'justification' of the inductions made, we primarily have in
mind a proof that the known data follow from the assumed laws.
This may be the case because, as has already been said, inductions
in advanced sciences, like astronomy and mathematical physics, do
not usually follow from the data as a matter of course but are the
an inductive
logic,
90
products of 'discovery', i.e. of a sort of 'scientific guessing', and
must therefore afterwards be shown to fit the facts.
Snell detected the well-known law for the refraction of light,
^^==A:.
sm
p
Before one had this law one had to look for each r
pair of
corresponding angles from tables. When Snell hit upon the law he
certainly could not see at once that it really fitted each of the recorded
pair of angles. The proof that each pair of the tables really followed
from the law, was the justification of his discovery. Whether for this
justification already recorded facts were used or whether the law
was tested on new facts was in the first place a point of minor
importance.
58
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
If, therefore, by a justification of induction we mean a
proof that
from the inductive proposition follow the data
upon which the
induction was made, then the scheme of an inductive
logic outlined
by Whewell provides us with the justification sought for. 21 The fact
that in advanced sciences the
justification of induction, in which we
and that
a much
account of scientific induction than do other 'classical'
treatments of the inductive problem.
But Whewell, on the other hand, overlooked the
significance of
another aspect of induction. This aspect, the
importance of which
again becomes more readily apparent if we confine our attention to
those 'primitive inductions where the element of
discovery disappears*
is that of
generalization. It is stressed with great acuteness by Mill
in his polemics against Whewell. 23
If the discovery of the law from which
given data follow is an
induction, then it must be possible to deduce from it also data other
than those already given. 24 Kepler's discovery that the available
observation-points of the path of Mars were situated on an ellipse
rule,
is
why
his philosophy of
discovery partly gives
better
calculate
tion
its
further assump-
inductive character
is
a generali-
zation.
From the same considerations it also follows that the kindred question
59
the affirmative.
several philosophers
case.
We
and
scientists so as to
thus understand
how
it
was not a
verifica-
we
consider
why
i.e.
task of an inductive logic, which has to prove the truth of the inductive generalizations themselves, to show that under certain circumstances we are entitled to infer the truth of the law from the data.
Can
3.
The idea
elimination.
be formalized,
data according to fixed rules, seems to have its origin in the following
observation:
We cannot establish the truth of an inductive generalization merely
it.
This kind of
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
verifying instances as such cannot eliminate the possibility of a
falsifying case. On the other hand it looks as though the examination
of only a very few cases were sometimes sufficient for the establish-
described in the classical attempts to formathe process of generalizing and in contrast with enumerative
induction, we shall call induction by elimination.* It is our intention
in this discussion to examine the eliminative method from the
viewpoint
lize
of modern
(i)
[AX-+BX],
(x)(y
(2)
where
is
and^'s.
61
;t's
Causal Law.
Co-existence.
and Mill's
is
latter
causal
uni-
formities.
But the task of connecting two characteristics by universal implication also presents two different aspects in another sense. Either
9
and look for another
I take one of the characteristics as 'given
which it universally
which
the 'given' one
by
characteristic,
implies.
Or,
is itself
We
Now
and the
characteristic
as follows:
confirmed hypothesis but some other is the true one. On the other
that we need only find one single instance where one
of these possible general implications does not hold in order to
invalidate and consequently also eliminate one of the concurrent
hypotheses as to the necessary or sufficient condition of which we are
in search. It is this important asymmetry in the possibilities of verifying and falsifying Universal Generalizations which is at the root of
hand we know
62
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
the idea of an Inductive method,
proceeding from elimination of
concurrent hypotheses.
Francis Bacon, who gave the first
substantially correct description
of eliminative induction, saw the
advantage of the eliminative
method over enumerative induction in that the former was a method
This association between
enabling us to reach absolute certainty.
absolute certainty and induction
elimination
is
also of
by
most
typical
method, must be
Is the third
meaning of the phrase
that eliminative induction leads to absolute certainty.
It would not be inappropriate to
say of the eliminative method
that it justifies induction If it could reach
certainty In any of these
it is
als
it
63
the
above
senses.
itself
can
minimum
4.
2
properties in the individual.
These
sets
of properties
we
call
necessary conditions of A.
By the positive analogy between a
mean
64
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
the definition of the
negative analogy it follows that there exists at
one positive instance of the conditioned
property A, in which
least
is
lacking. And anything which is absent in the presence of 4
cannot be a necessary condition of A. Or, in other
words, if a
property belongs to the negative analogy between the basic sets,
then the supposition that it would be
universally implied by the
initially
terminology,
as a
method of experimentation.
might
finally consist
properties
eliminated from the positive analogy. If we are left with more than
one property in the positive analogy, this may be either because we
have not yet 'varied the circumstances* to the utmost, or because the
conditioned property actually has more than one necessary condition
of the basic
sets.
The latter
alternative
is
known
from
left
condition of
A means
that
whenever
is
present, then
or
is
Necessary conditions of
present.
the disjunctive
familiar
vary the pressure, to which the gas is subject, or to vary its temperature. Variation in pressure or temperature is thus a necessary condition of variation in volume.
It might here be suggested that the eliminative method should be
applied also to the properties which can be constructed by forming
all the possible disjunctions of logically independent properties which
are
basic sets.
of A.
For, that
is
positive instances of
where P is present
Consequently,
it is
if
a necessary condition of
means
that in
all
'
as a
us with all
as a constituent, as such
it
has also
left
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
of as
many
applied to possible
when
power of
We
Sufficient Conditions.
mechanism of elimination
sufficient
Sufficient
in cases
If the
interdefinable.
~A
There
is,
however, a
'typical'
To
We call
l9
X*
it
sufficient conditions
of A.
in a negative instance of
(It is clear
cannot be a
67
We
form
the logical
sum of the
conditions of A.
With
That
is
to say:
formed,
we compare
which
present with
For
this
of this basic
sufficient conditions
among members
set.
set.
such members
is
two
(or
more)
a sufficient condition of A. 11
by
Mill. 13
68
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
It is
possible to apply the same canon of elimination also to the
properties which are constructed by forming all the
possible conjunctions of any two, three, etc. members of the basic set of
possible
sufficient conditions. 14
But the use of elimination
such
among
'conjunction-properties'
necessarily
conjunction
the properties in the basic set of
initially possible sufficient
conditions of A.
all
Our
69
is
way in which
the elimina-
mechanism
Conclusions.
It
was mentioned
at the
if
to this
'certainty' has
been attributed
method of
effect, in
any
And
teristic, than it might seem at first sight to be. It would have been
more valuable, if the 'direction' of elimination had been 'free', i.e.
if it had been possible to eliminate from the class of initially possible
17
remaining one.
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
follow-
sometimes mentioned: 18
We observe a yellow band at a characteristic place in the spectrum
of a spirit-flame containing sodium. We wish to establish a 'causal
relationship*, i.e. a relationship of universal implication, between the
yellow band in the spectrum and the presence of sodium in the flame.
To this end we remove the sodium from the flame leaving all other
ing
is
circumstances unchanged.
spectrum.
is
is
incon-
cause, we cannot
be sodium alone,
since the possibility remains that it were sodium and some other
substance
and neither of them alone which universally implied
the occurrence of the yellow band in the
spectrum. In other words,
the possibility of a 'complex cause" remains. We can only, strictly
band has a
speaking, conclude that, if there is any cause at all for the occurrence of the yellow band, then sodium is at least part of this cause,
that is to say in our terminology, that if the condition is complex then
consists of a conjunction of characteristics,
it
at all
71
is
important truth
sical inductive
is
clearly revealed to us
methods
is
when
and
suffi-
cient conditions.
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
the examination of a
single instance, when pursued carefully and
with a certain methodical aim, to contribute
very much more to the
weight of a general proposition than does the verification, regardless
of further circumstances, of even an enormous multitude of instances
21
it,
is
5.
The
we can
In the logic of Mill the word 'cause' means sufficient condition* (in
For this reason the Method of Agreement, as described by
Mill, can be used as a method of elimination solely for the purpose of
looking for the effect of a given cause and not for the cause of a given
6
effect. This, however, was overlooked by Mill.
After having given
a substantially correct description of how the method works by
elimination for the detection of the sole possible effect of a given
cause 7 he continues: 8
*In a similar manner we may inquire into the cause of a given
time).
73
ABC
an
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
condition cannot be any other than A or some condition more
complex than A, i.e. some condition part of which is A.
Thus we can understand how Mill, from the false idea that the
as the
Method of
Difference were
an
together with the true insight that the Method of Difference, but
not that of Agreement, can under certain circumstances
one
prove
Method of
Difference
was
scientific experimentation.
justified
in
tive
elimination.
was necessary
if
eliminative induction
was
all
con-
question
to attain
certainty in
any
of the three previously defined senses.
It is, however, to be observed that this affirmative
answer, although
necessary, is not sufficient for the attainment of certainty even in the
first of the three senses mentioned. To this
end, evidently, it must be
possible to answer also the second of the above questions in the
affirmative.
It is
immediately clear that if the number of independent possible
conditioning properties of a given conditioned property were infinite,
then it would never be possible to determine whether,- in a
given
situation, all concurrent hypotheses except one have been eliminated.
general assumption
Now
76
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
be said to be the basic supposition of the inductive
3
logic of Bacon.
a
form
of
the
Baconian
Recently
developed
postulate has been advocated by Keynes. 3 There appears, furthermore, to be some
prima
any
does not exist at least one p roperty which so far has not been reckoned
with, and which therefore may represent also a true hypothesis as to
the condition in question. For from the mere
knowledge that the
number of properties of an individual is finite, it does not follow that
the number of properties (and
consequently also of concurrent
hypotheses), which in a given situation we ought to take into account,
is not
greater than the (always finite) number of properties, or hypo5
theses, which actually has been considered.
Consequently, in order to make possible knowledge as to whether
in a given situation all concurrent
hypotheses except one have been
eliminated, we have to introduce some assumption 'stronger' than
that of Limited Variety. This new
assumption must, generally
Independent Variety we
of Completely
Known
In-
stances. 6
For a more
Known
77
n.
Under
this
assumption
it
would be possible
at least in
exactly
theses except one as to a necessary or sufficient condition have been
eliminated.
and
unsatisfactory.
We
left
irrelevant.
The number of
the
first
hypotheses, furthermore,
is
as a
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
with which it is confronted. If it were not
possible for us to confine
our attention to a fairly small sector of 'relevant' circumstances in
the multitude of given data, we should have seldom succeeded
in
detecting the uniformities and laws of nature of which we
actually
possess knowledge.
must
equals
known
Mill,
12
fact,
was
method capable of
it
places.
By
the data
79
is
Instances
induction
is
needed
if
the
method of
eliminative
induction
is
15
It can be given various,
Assumption.
weaker or stronger, formulations. One such formulation is that every
its sufficient
conditions. 15
Law
state
properties.
*
The two
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
tions shall be deducible from the data of the
elimination. This
deduction, generally speaking, is made so that the Deterministic
Assumption is applied to a situation where the Postulate of Completely Known Instances, together with the actual results of the
elimination, entitles us to the conclusion that all concurrent
hypo-
a Complete System.
It is,
obviously, logically possible to strengthen the postulates of
our Complete System so that the
system's powers of deduction are
widened. We might, for
example, introduce some more definite
assumption as regards the number of (sufficient or necessary) conditions of a given conditioned
property. Or, we may assume the
existence of some restriction to the
complexity of the possible
conditioning properties. Such stronger assumptions have actually
been suggested. 20 They will, however, not be discussed here.
7.
induction.
We
The
general propositions are deduced. The truth of the singular propositions, i.e. the so-called data of the elimination stating that such and
such properties belong to such and such an individual, is in this
a priori
is
to
make
it
analytical.
be true
is
We
is
The
now be
given as follows:
If the general proposition
But,
either that
We
logical
is that g is
necessary (analytical)/
In presenting the scheme of induction by elimination we intended
primarily to inquire whether it could reach inductive propositions
which were synthetical. Now we have seen that if eliminative
alternative
induction
this
is
method must be
bearing this has upon the question as to whether eliminative induction can justify inductive inference or not.
If the postulates are synthetical principles, their truth cannot be
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
It is
immediately clear that this 'inductive method' cannot be
induction by elimination. For this method
presupposes, for the
attainment of truth, the two postulates the truth of which is now to
in conjunction with
some
'rules'
or 'principles' p.
Since
is
11
If, on the other hand, p is known
analytical too.
a posteriori, then its truth must have been established by means of
some other inductive method using other rules or principles p',
follows that
is
we
when and
if
the justification
non
of induction.
inductive logic
on the above
premisses
of induction.
84
CHAPTER V
(2)
proof that a general proposition can be deduced from given
particular propositions by the aid of certain other general propositions, called 'inductive principles'. (Bacon-Mill,)
demonstration that a general proposition, obtained by
(3)
induction,
is
analytical,
i.e.
(Convention-
alism.)
But we have also seen that all those attempts fail to justify induction in one very important sense, viz. that of proving predictions from
an inductive generalization to be true. Or to use a different mode of
to be
expression: we cannot prove a synthetical general proposition
true prior to experiential testing.
The truth that inductive propositions, when used for the purpose
of predicting future happenings, are and must always remain hypotheses which coming experience may either confirm or refute, has
been already clearly apprehended by men of science centuries ago.
for instance, by Newton in his Opticks, when he
It was
expressed,
said that 'the arguing
1
The same
'no demonstration of general conclusions'.
a law to
from
of proving predictions
clarity as to the impossibility
another
be true a priori also pervades the works of
great man of
2
science of about the same time, Huyghens.
tion'
is
85
have until recently paid only slight attention to the fact that
inductive propositions, the consequences of which are deduced and
successively tested, are hypotheses.* The significance of this truth
tion,
has usually been entirely minimized by the stress that those philosophers have laid upon the element of certainty which is also inherent
in the inductive
The
mode
of reasoning. 4
element in induction,
is
i.e.
Jevons. 5
To have done
induction. 7
2.
One
predictions.
Does the
is
hypothetical affect
Is the impossibility of guaranteeing the truth of predictions prior
to testing a 'catastrophe to science', does it mean that all prediction
is
simply haphazard guessing, and that we are left in 'complete
uncertitude' as to the future course of nature?
86
Hume's theory of
facts.
The above
problems.
knowledge, in so far as
it is
hypothetical, is probable knowledge.
of
the
guaranteeing the truth of predictions
why
impossibility
is no
to
and
science',
why it is overhasty to say that we
'catastrophe
are left in 'complete uncertitude' as to the future.
This
is
itself
we need.
To this, however,
tion.
there appears to be a strong prima facie objecwill be said, that one prediction or one genera-
it
lization
is
another,
it
inductive propositions. 1
Thus we have arrived at the idea that the justification of hypotheti87
3.
The
scheme for
the treatment
of inductive probability.
idea of a
rules of inductive
probability.
We
pursued without any presuppositions as to the 'meaning' of probability or as to how probability-values are empirically determined.
The formal treatment of inductive probability will show that the
rules mentioned are all deducible from a common set of
simple
assumptions. This is important as it proves that those rules, frequently mentioned in works on induction but seldom analysed into
their formal interconnections, form
part of a coherent system of
inductive probability.
Moreover the analysis
is
peculiar inasmuch as that it shows the
formal structure of the probability-concept of this
system of inductive probability to be the same as the formal structure of that
proba-
88
In Chapter VII
we return
to the
problem of justification.
We shajl
is
doomed
probability
terms be
is
89
CHAPTER
VI
on the
The
class-ratio arithmetic. 2
them the
and
We
set-function calculi
for
its
'field
mined. 12
For our purposes a logistic calculus of probability is better suited
than a set-function one. We shall in this section outline a logistic
Abstract Calculus of Probability. In order to simplify the treatment
we have made as many omissions of points of a. formal nature as has
91
view of a theory of induction. For it is sometimes said that probaan attribute of inductive conclusions, though a legitimate
concept, differs from 'ordinary' probability, among other things,
in being non-numerical 15 Of probability which is considered as
non-numerical the question may be raised, to what extent it is
comparative, i.e. obeys laws about 'greater', 'equal', and less'."
bility as
about
the existence
AL
We
A3. Ifh
is self-consistent,
thenP(/z//z)=l.
the basis of these axioms, and a few principles of subordinate
nature, the whole fabric of what might be called 'classical' probability
On
and
the probability-functors.
(Examples of the two types of substitution of identities are indicated below.)
mention a number of elementary theorems.
We
Tl.
O^.P(a/K)^L Probability
is
a magnitude between
and
1,
Proof:
17
logically identical with /z.
is logically identical with h, then by internal substitu-
(1) If
h entails
(2) If
a&h
a,
then
a&h
is
(3)
= P(a&h\h\
P(a&h/h) = P(h/h)xP(a/h&h).
(4)
h&h is
tion P(h/K)
logically identical
with
93
(From A2.)
h.
(8)
identity established in
proof of T2.
T3.
we
(2),
P(alh)=P
P(b/h&a)+P(~b/h&a)
(1)
is,
get P(a/h)
=L
(6),
1.
(From A I.)
we have
- P(a/h) x [P(blh&a)+P(~b/h&a)].
P(a/h)
(3)
(4)
(5)
A2.)
We shall call T3
(1)
(2)
in (1)
is
we
obtain
(3) P(avb/ti)
=P(bjh)+P(a&~blh\
= P(alh)-P(a&blK).
(From T3.)
(From
(4)
P(a&~b/h)
(5)
P(avb/h)=P(alh)+P(blhy-P(a&blh).
external substitution.)
T4 will be called the Addition Principle.
That two propositions are mutually exclusive
(3)
and
means
(4)
by
that the
from
T5.
a.
If
P(avb/h)
It
- P(a/K)+P(b/h).
may
easily
be proved
that, if
A,
then
in A, if P(ajh)
independent of a in A,
is
P(a&b/h)=P(a!h)xP(b!h&a)^P(blh)xP(alh&b). (From
a is independent or 6, then P(0/A) = P(alh&b). If 6
(2) If
independent of
from
if
(1)
then P(6/A)
a,
by external
= P(b/h&a).
In either case
we
is
get
substitution:
= P(alh)xP(b/h).
(3)
P(a&bjh)
We
1)
~b
If
is
independent of b in
A,
then a
are excluded,
we can
is
also independent of
is
also independent
of
in A.
79.
If
b and of
We
<2
is
independent of b in A, then
^a
~& in A.
is
also independent of
We symbolize the
a coin.
non-occur-
'" and
its
rence by <-v/T.
casion.
of E on the
-x 2 ,
'
~Exi.)
An
on
if the
probabilities
the respective occasions are
nor 1.
normal independence-realm
neither
event
is
p (the Bernoullian probability), then the probability of its
non-occurrence is 1 p.
The notions of the various independence-realms can easily be
generalized so as to apply to sequences of occasions for the occurrence
and non-occurrence, not of one event E only, but of any number n
of events Ei
For our purpose, however, it will suffice to
., En
consider the simplest case, when there is one event E
only.
For Bernoullian independence-realms can be proved a very
9
21
It can be proved
that, for given p and n, the calculated probability
has its maximum value for that value of m:n which is closest to
p. In
other words: the most probable value of the event's relative
frequency
on n occasions is the value which is closest to the event's Bernoullian
probability p.
This, which
may
Law
of
Maximum
runs through
interval
e.
all
96
2 of the values
Cm xp m x(l-~~p) n - m when m
Of
this
sum Z
it
is
simply the sum
runs through the
Law
speech is that
it
mention the, rather sweeping, assumpwhich are essential to a correct proof of the
leaves without
tions of independence
theorem.
2.
The
It is
interpretation
offormal probability.
model of
is
sometimes done, 2 to regard the relation between abstract and interpreted probability as presenting a close analogy to the relation between axiomatic geometry and the physical theory of space.
There are many models of abstract probability, but all of them
which are known to be important fall within one of two main
3
categories.
We
range-models.
Since the
members of
frequency-models and
'possibility
'-
interpretation).
On
among
all
h.
is
a proportion of true
show
abstract probability. 5
The Finite Frequency-Model
infinite, the proportion of A's which are a's is the limiting value of a
relative frequency in a sequence. 6 The notion of a
limiting-frequency
must not be regarded as 'meaningless' or in any other way logically
unsatisfactory. But it is important to observe that the notion makes
is
by no means
mean by
a probability.
The
definition of
random
distribution,
10
difficulties
mentioned
investigation.
The range-theory of
can be
We
say n, of
h n which are mutually exclusive and such that
some of them, say m, entail the proposition a and the rest entail the
15
In conformity with a traditional
proposition ~#.
terminology, we
shall call the alternatives, which entail <z, 'favourable' alternatives
and the alternatives, which entail ~a, 'unfavourable' alternatives.
By the probability of a given h we now understand the ratio of
alternatives, hi,
'favourable' alternatives to
alternatives 'favourable' to a
all
alternatives, or the
among
all alternatives
proportion of
which
fall
under
h.
proposed by Laplace
16
and current
in
present day.
The
of
it
can be generalized
exact in the following
way:
'classical' definition
made more
We
We
members of a. Let us assume that the normal form of a&Ji is mtermed and that the normal form of h is ^-termed, i.e. let us assume
that the normal forms are
disjunctions of m and of n conjunctions
respectively. By the probability of a given h we now mean the ratio
m:w. 19
By
the a-range of a
proposition we shall
in terms of the members of cr. 20
normal form
100
mean
its
disjunctive
(In this definition it
is
assigns,
way we
'
= df
J
of a and the choice of rar 24 Since, from the point of view of the
applications of probability, not all choices are equally good, we are
led to consider the problem of adequacy in the choice.
The answer given to this problem in the 'classical' theory of
probability can, in our terminology, be stated as follows:
The choice of a ought to be such that each unit in the ranges can
be given an equal weight. Or, popularly speaking, the data ought to
be analysable into a number of equipossible alternatives.
When this condition is added to what we called above the 'classical'
range-definition we get the following: The probability of a given h
is the
proportion of alternatives, which are 'favourable' to a among
a number of equally possible alternatives which fall under h.
But how can we be sure that an analysis of the data leads to equiCT ,
possible unit-alternatives?
proposed as an answer the
To
'classical'
theory
no reason
come about. 26
One other answer to the problem of the adequate choices of or
and mra should be mentioned before we leave this topic:
The choice of mr a ought to be such that for a given a, the
//
ratio
jp
~2j
~\
tation. 37
To
frequency-theory.
3.
is
that indicated
102
by
its
its
it becomes
infinitely probable that the
which an event occurs gives us the true value
'in
(hitherto
unknown)
probability.
is
Great Numbers.
The
We shall call
principles.
Its
it,
3
following Keynes, the Inverse Principle.
proof is as follows:
(l)P(blh&a)
=pMfo'
(From ^2 provided P(
= P(blh)xP(a!h&b).
(From A2.)
(3)P(alfy=P(aMlfy+P(a&~b{h). (73.)
(4) P(a/K) ^P(blh)xP(a/h&b)+P(~blh)xP(alh&~b). (From
(3) and A2.)
(2)
P(a&b\K)
PthiiAA;
Tin
(From
__
P(blh)xP(aIh&b)
P(b/h)
xP(alh&b+P(~blh) xP(a/M~6).
We next conof
it.
generalizations
b s be s mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive
Let bi
alternatives. Then we have P(a/h)
P(a&(b :v
vbJ/K)
This
sider
is
two
P(a&b l
v ...
va&bJK)
If,
in T10,
we
=
.
denominator
bi for b,
Principle:
TIL If bi
we
is
alternatives b,
n o ,
then Pfa/h&d)
t
b,,
=-
P(bilh)xP(alh&bi)
^
^P(bilh} xP(a/h&bi)
From Til we
viz..
principle,
T12. If bilt
.,
bik
v ... vb ik lh&d)
k of some s mutually
are
exhaustive alternatives
61.
exclusive
and
jointly
b s , then
when
is
greatest.
at the Inverse
Laws of
steps:
Let there be
Bernoullian independence-realms for the event E.
let the Bernoullian probabilities bej^i
ps We assume, for
the sake of simplicity, that these probabilities are all different from
each other and that^i<
<ps
The reader may think of these s independence-realms as s different
sets of conditions under which E may occur. Each time the conditions
are satisfied we have an occasion for jB's occurrence. On each occasion E may either occur or fail to occur. That the conditions constitute an independence-realm for E means that the probability of E's
5-
And
104
Let qi be the probability that (a random set of) n occasions for "s
occurrence belong to the independence-realm with the Bernoullian
and qs the probability that they belong to the
probability p
realm with the Bernoullian probability p s
For example: #1 is the probability that n drawings, with replacement, are from an urn in which the probability af drawing a black
ball is pi. It is assumed that the n drawings are from one and the
.
same urn.
<A\
(A)
we may
105
OB)
(A')
/=!
and
p
2rt.
tj
mx
v/'/
(i
_p^)
n-^\ n -- n
f=l
106
in
ofE
is
closed to
actual relative
its
frequency
p\ k are
that not
all
fjt
tor as n
is
n and approaches
expressed
follows:
amount sfrom
approaches
maximum
value
as n
is
indefinitely increased.
Numbers
(for Bernoul-
lian independence-realms).
to
inclusive.
The a
or
prforf-probability
#-value,
associated with
mX
(Jf
a given
The formulae
xqp
p x(l-p)
jp
m
pY~ X qp dp
and
(m:/7)-fe
p x(lp)
n-
xqp
dp
(D)
x (1 p) n ~m x qp dp
o
expressions and we
and (5') above
-r^
(C')
n~
n -m
n -m
p x(lp)
dp
and
p x(lp)
f T\ f \
(L>
(m:)
dp
E
.
j p x(l-p)
dp
(C") has
its
maximum
= m:n.
reached when/?
If qp is not
for all values of p in the interval m;ne, then (D)
increases with n and approaches 1 as a limit. (The Inverse Law of
Great Numbers.)
The inversion of Bernoulli's Theorem is also known under the
name of Bayes's Theorem.
The first part of Bayes's Theorem or the Inverse Law of Maximum
7
probabilities.
(E)
n
J p xqp dp
o
109
On the
we
jp
(')
n+2
dp
*.
pdp
By
integration
we obtain
it
will occur
if
11 -{- 7
for
for
well. 10
For a
they belong
realm in which the Bernoullian
probability falls outside the interval.
And 'in the long run' it becomes infinitely probable that the n occurrences belong to some such
independence-realm.
We raise the question: What is the probability that the event, which
no
/=!
w
^
Wehave/?x<
e, it
.<z?5 Since
.
ps xq
that
increases with n
(provided qs
is
not
0).
For a
sufl&ciently large
is
n.
We may
reduces to
(F)
from
to
1,
in other words,
is
On
sl
in
sub-
shown
with increasing
as a limit. Thus,
s,
the value of (F
4.
is
also
known
as a doctrine of
Consider
first
is
or
some-
as
an
and 'hypothesis'
again is that those conditions are satisfied, i.e. that the occasions for
the event's occurrences belong to a certain Independence-Realm.
Very often one has talked of the 'hypotheses' involved in Bayes's
Theorem as propositions to the effect that the event possesses a
certain (Bernoullian) probability.
This loose
mode
of speech
is
a more powerful fascination over the human mind. 4 Not only was it
uncritically accepted by those, who followed closely in the footsteps
of Laplace. Many respectable authors of the nineteenth century on
the subject of induction regarded it as an altogether sound formula,
whereby to judge with probability of the future course of events/
Some put it to the wildest uses, such as calculating that the sun will
rise tomorrow or that it will continue to rise regularly for the next
1000 years. 8 The formula still finds favour with authors, who regard
the doctrine of inverse probability as being, with due qualifications,
tenable. 7
statistical science,
R. A. Fisher.
He rejects
is still
open to
11
controversy.
Here we
shall
critical
probability-proposition ('second
order probability'). The calculated
probability is the probability
that the conditions, under which an occurrence of the event took
place, were just the conditions 6/. The unknown of the problem,
therefore, is not a probability. It is the presence of certain conditions,
relative to which the event has a
probability. The 'inverse problem'
in all its variations can be described as a
problem of re-identification
now
become
apparent.
The a
some
under
of the
115
satisfied.
If h is
initial probabilities
may be
said to
be 'eminently'
no particular information.
To many of the notorious uses of the Inverse Formula for
determining the probability of some 'causes' or 'hypotheses', and
to any use of the Inverse Law of Maximum Probability and the
Numerical Law of Succession, it is essential that the a priori probaa priori,
bilities
i.e.
subsisting relative to
equal.
question.
how any assumption about the a priori probaabout their equality or inequality or exact numerical
could be anything but a hypothesis for the correction of
values
which future experience about the case under consideration may
constitute a reason. This hypothetical nature of the initial probabiliIt is difficult to see,
bilities
be
it
ties
(4)
employ
integration,
an additional
difficulty enters.
116
They presuppose
makes any
5.
sense at
all.
assumed (usually
By Confirmation-Theory we
i
shall here
117
how
of
in the
is
affected
by evidence
logical consequences of
it.
tion.
discussed
logical consequence of
it.
tions
amount of dicussion of
We
its
logical consequences.
Proof: Let h be the datum, and let a entail
b.
In virtue of the
we have P(a&b/K)
= P(b/K) x
&
118
given e
call the
generalization.
Given the eductive probabilities we can use the General
Multiplication Principle to calculate the
probability of ! given e, i.e. the
From
We
instances,
that,
P(g/e<Mn
with
)^^^
if
(g&In
Le.toqn^^-^
is
confirming
p^IIn
p>0, then
last identity
its
IIn >0.
above to
logically
identical
alone).
Now
compare qn and
dent that,
bilities
if
p>0 and
#, +1 ,
i.e.
//n >JTn+1 ,
from
and only ifpn +i<l.
//>//+!,
if
to
inclusive,
it
follows that
words no mention
is
is
made of
e.
presently,
shall call this the Principal
We
formyrr
--
/ 1
the value
The choice of
e,
as
we
shall see
crucial to the
'meaning* of the theorem.)
\
1
j.
n+1
Theorem of Confirmation.
lln
It
It is
seen that
it is
inversely proportionate to
119
The
and
probability.
From
the formula qn
to
maximum
=77-^
Jin
ws
probability
is
easily
that q* approaches
1,
P(~gle&In}
= 7-
-r
Lin
Substituting these
we
get
P(Lle&~g)
P on
9
condition that 1
1p =
xP(~gfe&L\
p>0.
0, then/>
/, which
(This last condition is trivial. For, if
means that the generalization is already a priori maximally probable.
And in this case its probability can no longer be increased by confir-
mation.)
If
now
IIn
0,
and
Thus we
can be formulated
in
get a
new
words as follows:
The
generalization
is false,
O.
-approaches
The thought
unrestricted, this
numerically
infinite. In symbols:
(1)
ii&
&i*&
conjunction
ad
inf.
is
is
'genuine',
= Df g.
Urn
n >oo
L = Df g.
limlln=p.
n >oe
^ = a,
A4. If Urn
n+
= P(tf//2).
n >
=o
axiom and the identity (2) above we can prove that the
of
n successive confirmations of a generalization approbability
a
as
limit the probability a priori of the generalization
proaches
From
this
infinite sub-class
assumed to
member
l9
zs
fs,
etc.
infinite
sequence of
confirming instances of g. But there can be no assurance (of a logicomathematical nature) that indefinite confirmation of the generalization through these instances will
9
eralization approach 1 as a limit.
make
It is
difficulties.
We
tions of the
form
(x)
(Ax-^Bx).
122
instance'
is it
is
entailed
by the
generalization.
In speaking about instances we have so far always meant confirming instances. For present purposes, however, it is convenient to take
Instance' in the broader sense and distinguish between instances
Anything which
is
but
is
not
(Ax-^Bx).
By a disconfirming instance of
(Ax~*Bx) we shall therefore understand any proposition of the
form Ax&~Bx. And we shall say of the thing x that it 'affords or
proposition
(x)
(x)
One
possibility
is
As
regards
its
Not
so
definition
we shall have to say that the generalization that all A are B is confirmed by () anything which is both A and B, (ii) anything which
is not A but is B, and (Hi)
anything which is neither A nor B,
This way to define a confirming instance, however, leads to two
'paradoxes'. These axe variants of the well-known Paradoxes of
Implication. The first 'paradox* is that anything which is not A
will constitute a confirming instance of (x) (Ax-^Bx), irrespective of
whether
it is J5
or not.
And
is
that anything
which
or not, would serve to confirm the proposition that all ravens are
black. And the same holds good for any black object, whether a
raven or not. Such consequences as these plainly conflict with our
123
what
it
is
generalization.
Another possibility
firming instance.
To
and
is
this
B are
really confirmative
of the generalization
that
all
are B.
a 'paradox'.
form of a confirming instance of (x) (Ax-^Bx) is
Ax&Bx, then, by substituting ~B for A and ~A for B, it follows
that the general form of a confirming instance of (x) (~Bx-+~Ax)
must be ~Bx&~Ax which is the same as ~Ax&~Bx. This piece
of reasoning seems quite unobjectionable.
Now (x) (Ax~*Bx} and (x) (~Bx-+~Ax) are logically equivalent.
It is highly plausible to think that anything which counts as a confirming instance of a certain proposition should also count as a
confirming instance of any propositon which is logically equivalent
with the first. This idea may be called the Equivalence-Criterion
But
If the general
(-Condition).
we
We
~Ax&~Bx is another form of confirming instance.
We
would not
normally regard the fact that this particular object, say a swan,
is neither a raven nor black as a confirming instance of the proposition that all ravens are black. And we would admit that the fact
in question confirms the generalization that all things which are
not black are not ravens.
This conflict between two "intuitions', the obvious plausibility
it is
easy to
show
swan cannot effect the probability that all ravens are black. This is
seen from the following considerations:
The proposition Axn -*Bxn logically follows from the proposition
~Axn and also from the proposition Bxn. If therefore, in estimating
the probability of (x) (Ax-^Bx) relative to verified propositions of
the form Axn-^Bxn, it is part of our data that an object xn does
not possess the property A or that it possesses the property 5 5 then
certain
<
for
93)
for
known to
from the
125
law
the
is
confirmed.
same
as 'saved
but do not
is
If
negative.
know whether it
is
or
is
either of them.
Thus not any confirmation of the law that all ravens are black
through an object which is neither black nor raven can be rightly
called 'paradoxical'. It is paradoxical only if, prior to knowing
anything about the object's colour, we know that it is not a raven.
Then the object is valueless for the purposes of confirming that all
ravens are black and also for confirming that all not-black things are
not-ravens. But if, prior to knowing anything about the object's
membership of a certain species of bird, we know that it is not black,
The conclusion
are B.
126
And
it is
equally a mistajce
7.
Does
Keynes tried to show that the condition P(in+ife&I)<l mentioned in the Theorem, is satisfied only if the thing affording the
n+lth confirming instance differs in at least one property from all
9
concurrent possibilities. 1
In opposition to the view of Keynes, Nicod made an attempt to
defend the value of Pure Induction independently of elimination. 2
He pointed out some errors and insufficiencies in Keynes 's arguments,
but he cannot be said to have been successful in vindicating his own
3
position.
It is hardly possible to settle the Keynes-Nicod controversy
over the value of Pure Induction without resort to a model of the
abstract notion of probability as it occurs in the Principal Theorem.
An
127
By O we
shall
a necessary condition of A.
necessary conditions of A.
such a condition. Thus g can
is
all
The
also
z'
i'i,
2,
etc.
effect
That a property
mean
that
it is
i.e.
the class of
all
XL
class of properties
P(fn/e<fe/n_0
or P(<?4B)lv(B)&<S>r - l (B)')
t
is
with
in
x.
P(L/e) or P(<fc<jB)M5) ) is the probability that B will be copresent with A in the first n things, affording confirming instances of
g, given that B is a member of y. That this probability has the value
X ... xp means
in the
^i
128
X L and
and x
tt
-i,
tt .
P(gle&In) or
is
n (B))
Frequency-
Model that
members of
qn
ratio
~~- means
A among
.
and xn
is
men-
That 9+!
in
Xj.
and
and xn
in x^
and
and xn
-=~- and w~ ^
*
llpn+ 1
fU ws
that
tlpn
129
tion
properties which
all
By 9 we now mean
x
ly
it is
co-absent with
Similarly,
&y n
we
B in (from)
(Ox thus
the
By
<D*
we understand
the product
same
as 91.)
If, in our previous interpretations in frequency terms of the a
of the a posteriori
priori probability, of the eductive probabilities, and
9i<&
is
of B'
probability, we substitute the phrase 'sufficient condition(s)
for the phrase 'necessary condition(s) of A ', and the phrase *cothen we get
absent with B for the phrase 'co-present with
9
A\
members of
vy,
among
all
the
130
is
only if *n +1 has the property A. For it is only when
that
present
any other property could be denied to be co-present with
it.
And similarly it is clear that, on the interpretation (A) of g,
elimination can take place only if x +1 lacks the
B. For it
take, place
property
only where B is absent that any other property could be denied
to be co-absent with it.
This is in harmony with the two basic facts of
Elimination-Theory,
viz. that when we are in search of a
necessary condition of a given
property we ought to compare with each other positive instances of
that property, whereas when we are in search of a sufficient condition
of a given property the elimination is promoted by
negative instances
of that property. (Cf. above Ch. IV, 4.)
is
We now
Frequency-Model.
simply
means
confirming
compared
with the previous confirming instances. Thus, we increase the
probability of a generalization by confirmation, the more effectively,
the more we succeed in varying the circumstances under which the
generalization is put to successful test.
If the eductive probability of an instance
is 1, its
eliminative effect
131
Reasoning from
Probability, scope and simplicity.
Mathematical and philosophical probability.
8.
analogy.
M.
We
proposition
ate to
its
is
scope.
saying that,
relative
to
the
this
same
scope.
(x)
is
new
term.
entails
antecedent
is
(if)
it
now easily
K
two
is,
in a
a further feature B
which is characteristic of x will also be characteristic of j.
This sort of argument is, in general, considered to be stronger (its
conclusion more probable) the greater the number n is of common
characteristics of the two things. (This is not to say that the strength
of the argument depended only on the number of common charac-
number of features, AI
things,
:c
A n we conclude that
,
teristics.)
What
is
Why do we
think
all, if it
tion
fact that
property.
connection, which satisfies this requirement of causal 'responsibility', is the connection of sufficient (or necessary-andA* contains
sufficient) conditionship. If the set of properties Ai
ties,
Ai
of B
is
The
same
data.)
From
probabilities.
&AnX~*Bx) is the same proposition as the conjunc(A,x& ...& A nx&~A n+1x-*Bx) & (x) (A Ix& ...& A*+&-*Bx).
(x) (A!.X&
tion (x)
By virtue of the General Multiplication Principle it is easily shown
that the two probabilities under consideration are equal if, and
&~A
n +iX-+Bx)lh&(x) (A^x&...
only if, P( (x) (Ax&. .& A nx
L Conversely, the first probability is smaller than
&An+*x-+-Bx) )
the second, if this last (third) probability is smaller than L
This means: If the addition of a new common property n +i to
A n is to strengthen the
the previous common properties
.
cient condition of B.
follow that
Ai&
&A n &^A n ^
and
And from
A&
t
&A n ^
are both
A&
of B.
this
A&
&A
135
Ai
the set Ai
A ~A n +i
n9
it
is
one
in
as well.
The
scientific
methodology.
related to ideas
In spite
relation
of simplicity to the probability of inductions has as yet been developed.
The subject largely remains a virgin field of inductive logic. 7 In this
work we shall not make an attempt to penetrate into it. 8
is
when contemplated
in
of a different nature
'implicitly defined' in a set of
is
calculus which
was
136
been reached
its models
some of
or with the aid of some weaker calculus such as the various systems
of so-called comparative probability. We must not, of course,
exclude on a priori grounds the possibility of a formalism of probability
which would be
significantly different
from the
'classical'
ones and which might be successfully used for analysing some such
ideas as those relating to simplicity of inductions. 10 But it is initially
difficult to see how such a formalism, if invented for the ad hoc
purpose of dealing with an obscure corner of inductive theory,
could be of much interest either to the logician or to the philosopher.
For any
137
CHAPTER Vn
PROBABILITY
1.
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
IT
is
tion*
By
that
its
it
were
'better'
or 'safer ', in
and, in
making predictions
to prefer the more probable
We
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
at all. 2
We
all
occasions for
occurrence.
This definition
proposition by
'Belief in connection with this latter
proposition, again means the
psychological fact which is expressed in saying that we 'believe* a
certain proposition to be true (as
opposed to certain other propositions
which are
'believed* to
We
be
false).
degree
defined
reference to a further
proposition believed to be true.
It seems to us that this second
way of measuring degrees of belief
is a true
of
the
old-established
idea of measuring a man's
analysis
belief by proposing a bet, and also of the
philosophical doctrine that
degrees of belief were causal properties of our beliefs, that is to
by
say
of our preparedness to act on our beliefs. 3
Supposing a method of measuring actual degrees of belief to be
given, we turn our attention to the interpretation-problem of formal
probability. It
measurement
belief,
would
is
now
method of
139
my
degree/
If we
accept this regulative function of formal probability, it is
necessary to abandon the idea of probability being defined or interpreted in terms of beliefs as psychological states of mind. 7 The
exact nature, however, of this
regulative function of the formalism,
as also the true connection between
probability and belief, still
remains to be determined.
We
calculus
by saying that
of the probability-
it
we
degrees
property of the
way
in
which actual
140
formal
but that
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
'rationality'
as rational
it is
2.
Rationality of beliefs
means.
and success
in
predictions.
be
true.
inductive
is
For example:
coin will
made under
it
may
come down
is
degree
J-
that this
on the knowledge
symmetrical and homogeneous and that the toss is
'heads' in the next toss-up
p.
Under
beliefs
is
must be
m'
E and not-
character:
We
call
it,
not~E. But
(i.e.
that
we
we
'sceptical'
results
of
Hume
as to the
4
impossibility of foretelling the future.
Consequently,
if
We
predictions.*
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
we
shall
be
be instantly clear to
us:
possibility
that,
those circumstances
being
realized,
the
more
probable prediction will after all turn out to be false, the less probable
6
again to be true. Nor, of the assertion of 'rationality', do we demand that, of all predictions of E on the conditions C which will
actually ever be made, a majority is going to be true and a minority
false. We only demand that, if it is rational to
prefer the prediction
of E to the prediction of not-jE , and it nevertheless
happens that only
a minority of actual predictions of E are true, then this distribution
of truth and falsehood on the
predictions must be regarded as
a
'chance-event'
which
cannot be excluded, but which
representing
1
we
think, in the long run, will give place to another distribution where
7
the true predictions are in
The statement that 'chancemajority.
events', such as the above 'abnormal' distribution of true and false
in
frequencies.
interpreting formal
Under
this
interpretation
entertain belief of
degree/? in an event
occurs in a proportion/? of all occasions.
relative
frequency of an event on
143
all
occasions of
its
is/?, is
a general synthetical
proposition of the type called
It is plain that if the truth of such Statistical
Statistical Induction.
Inductions be
the truth of statements concerning rationality in beliefs, then any argument which tried to justify
induction by reference to degrees of
probability as representing
rational degrees of belief would be circular.
The state of our problem is now the following;
then
it
that the
probability
have further seen that
representing rational degrees of belief.
this guarantee can be given if we resort to the
frequency-interpretation of formal probability, but that this
way of securing the Cancelling-out of Chance at the same time vitiates
from
We
any argument
only possible
way
3.
if
approximately,
are concerned with propositions the
of
which
all
probabilities
have the value/?, then it is infinitely probable that 'in the
long run',
exactly the proportion p of those propositions are found to be true.
we
Thus,
if
we have two
tested,
When
stated in this
way
it
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
regularity,
prevail
It is therefore
hashed
philosophical
aspirations originally connected with the theorem of Bernoulli and
the Laws of Great Numbers in
general. Nevertheless, the idea of the
relatedness between the formal theorem of the
probability-calculus
and the statement on the course of nature which we have termed the
whereas
maximum
value
acquires
the
1.
the
other
increases
It is this
probability
appearance
of
and
approaches the
of the second
order that
between
and corresponding frequencies This
providing
bridge
bility
is,
by
its
145
It seems
plausible to say that prob4
measures
The more
ability
degrees of certainty or of possibility:
a
the
smaller
the
probable
proposition,
possibility that this proposition will turn out to be false. If the
is
probability of a
proposition
proposi-
tion itself
is
'almost certain'.
The
For
are true.
At this point the following remark will take the reasoning further.
Let us suppose that we have demonstrated, with the aid, for
example,
of the theorem of Bernoulli, that one
possibility is greater than
another, or that one is very great, another again very small. Is there
anything in this which will preclude, even in the long run, the small
possibility from being realized very frequently, the great possibility
again very seldom or perhaps even not at all?
It is obvious that if there were
nothing to preclude this, then a
degree of possibility, even at its maximum, could not serve as a
bridge to frequencies, since then the statement that a certain frequency
very, or even 'infinitely', possible would not tell us anything
is
146
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
sibility is
known
geneous coin.
As circumstances stand we
unequal
not exclude that which was necessary if the theorem of Bernoulli was
to. serve as a bridge to frequencies, viz. that the small possibility will,
147
We
possibilities
its
probability.
But
this
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
it,
nothing but the tacit or unconscious assumption that the Canceliingout of Chance is already established as regards the probabilities of
the second order. 11
The idea of the theorem of Bernoulli being a proof of the Cancelling-out of Chance is thus circular. Bernoulli's theorem can be used
is
himself suggested. 12
4.
Bernoulli's theorem
was pursued
nor any
proof of the Canceliing-out of Chance relevant to the question of
justifying induction. This is seen from the following considerations:
The statement that the Canceliing-out of Chance will take place
for a given probability is a general proposition. It is such because it
concerns truth-frequencies 1 'in the long run', i.e. in an infinity of
cases.
tion
to
is
make
it
analytical.
is
formal probability.
L
149
that if the frequency-interpretation be accepted as a model of formal probability, then any statement that a proposition is probable to such and such a degree
i.e. an inductive
becomes a general synthetical assertion
proposifor which reason it
tion of the form called Statistical Generalizations
would then be circular to justify induction by reference to probability.
We can therefore conclude that the guarantee of the statement on
be certainly
true.
On this point the following idea suggests itself: Perhaps the Cancelling-out of
Chance as a
if
guaranteed,
probability in
its
favour.
probability.
150
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
in preferring
less
probable proposition
b,
we wish
the
more probable
prefer
must be possible to
that
the
more
'in
the
run'
is realized on a
guarantee
probable
long
number
of
occasions
than
the
less
more
greater
probable, or
the
that
of
Chance
will
take
for
the
exactly
Cancelling-out
place
under
consideration.
On
the
hand
other
we
have
seen
probabilities
that if the Cancelling-out of Chance is to be
guaranteed with probathis
must
that
one
of
two ways of possible
bility,
guarantee
imply
success is more probable than another. From this it follows that we
must be able to guarantee the Cancelling-out of Chance also for
to the less probable, then
it
important
conclusion the reasoning easily proceeds as follows:
The Cancelling-out of Chance cannot be guaranteed with certainty if we wish to justify induction with probability. The remaining
alternative is that it could be guaranteed with
probability. Thus, we
might introduce the idea of 'philosophical' probability for a second
time. If this new probability is to
express anything more than
uncertainty in general, it must be capable of 'quantification* in the
sense described above which tells us that the one of two alternatives is
more probable than the other. This again leads to a justification of
induction only if we can guarantee the
Cancelling-out of Chance for
these last two probabilities. In this way we are involved in an infinite retrogression. 10
power
justifying
on the possibility of guaranteeing that of those predictions
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
circular.
is
thus
is to
say from the same fallacy of thought which
of
the
classical
idea that Bernoulli's theorem amounted
origin
to a proof for uniformity and order in the course of nature. 13 The
only way to justify this use of probability, however, is to interpret
the concept in terms of truth-frequencies, and as soon as this is done
it is
for
easily seen that any argument which invokes
frequencies, that
was the
probability
see that
bility.
He was
introduction of
aware of the
from the
'scepticism*
which he taught.
5.
and
relative justification
of
We
we
more
propositions.
previously refused to accept this fact alone, as & justification of
153
is
now
The
we need a
itself.
Thus
it is,
after all,
We
we perform.
The different weights attached to inductive conclusions might be
characterized as different degrees of actual belief. It recommends
itself to say that degrees of actual belief provide a psychological
with probability.
justification of induction
propositions, then
This,
however, does not imply that our formal analysis and proofs of
inductive probability, have been altogether useless. We might also
speak of a relative justification of induction with probability, meaning
proofs of the calculus to the effect that a proposition is a guide to the
154
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
it is
possible to apply
the frequency-interpretation to inductive propositions, especially
to generalizations.
be interpreted statistically?
in the affirmative. It was
This question has already been answered
shownin Chapter VI, section? that the Principal Theorem of Confirmation can be given a frequency-model, in which the logical mechanism
of the theorem 'mirrors' the logical mechanism of induction by
elimination.
The
was
is infinite,
phorus
form
(1)
If
(jc)
we made
tions were
(Ax-Bx).
a statement according to which one of these generalizathe other, it is likely that we would
one melting-point.
156
PROBABILITY
AND THE
JUSTIFICATION OF INDUCTION
Let Si denote the class of all species of birds, and S z the class of
species of combinations of colours in a bird. The statement that
all individuals of the
have the same colouring Y
species of birds
is then a
the
of
form
proposition
all
(2)
we
If
& (X) & S (Y) & (Ex) (Xx & KC)-KJC) (Xx-+Yx).
Z
take
a prepositional
of
constant
values
and
7
when subwhich
Xi
t
Any pair
stituted for the real variables in the prepositional function Si (X)
S 2 (Y) (Ex) (Xx Yx), make this a true proposition can be said
to constitute an 'occasion' for any hypothesis of the form (x) (Xx->
Yx). The proportion of times on which the prepositional function
function.
&
&
&
als
lichkeit?' 5
is
It is
proportion
is true.
Leaving for a
moment
all
considerations as to
meaning truth-frequencies in
cannot be verified, but nevertheless can be, so to speak 'recommended' or 'discountenanced' by the records of experience. The
logical difference, consequently, between singular propositions and
Universal Generalizations, consisting in the fact that the former
may be verifiable and the latter not, is irrelevant to the question of
whether or not it be possible to interpret the probability of general
propositions in terms of frequencies.
There remains the further problem whether it be possible to deter-
('collectivities') for
measuring the
158
CHAPTER
the unknown.
The
ideas ofPeirce.
WE
say that
we employ
the inductive
mode
of reasoning or an
For instance: We conclude from the fact that all observed A 's have
been B that the unknown A's will also be B, or we infer from the
of the observed A's have been B that the
We have seen that we cannot
guarantee, prior to testing, the truth of any such inference as a
same proportion of
all
A's are B.
set
truth.
unknown
in
it
For
this
is
the only
consistently,
it
if
persisted in
way through
self-correcting
method. That
is to
say, it follows from the way in which the method
defined that, even if it momentarily takes us
away from the exit
of the labyrinth, this deviation from the goal will be
automatically
corrected until the exit is reached and we leave the maze.
is
Two
may momentarily
give results deviating very much from the true value of the proportion, but it follows from the way in which this method is used that
any such deviation is in time corrected by experience's own indica-
reached.
experiences
samples' from a larger totality, was expressed for the first
time by Peirce. 2 Peirce speaks of 'the constant tendency of the
inductive process to correct itself as the 'essence and the 'marvel'
of induction. 3 He also says that 'the validity of an inductive
argument consists, then, in the fact that it pursues a method which, if
duly persisted in, must, in the very nature of things, lead to a result
4
indefinitely approximating to the truth in the long run'.
The validity of the argument, naturally, depends upon the
are
'fair
assump-
160
unnecessary
We
shall
psychologically a most
when two
classes
proportion of the
first is
110100011111011.
(1)
is
something
And now we
like this
(2)
110100011111011...,
where the dots indicate that the series of 1's and O's perhaps goes
on indefinitely,
This picture, however, is most fallacious. It causes us to think ofthe
class A as in some way
'resembling' finite collections of the class,
picturable in rows such as (1), chiefly on account of its being a
'very long' row of this kind. (It is the same type of fallacy wMch
occurs over and over again in the philosophy of mathematical conceptions. We know it, for
example, from the controversies about the
infinitesimals or the transfinite, controversies of which the
deepest
root lies in the inclination to think of infinitesimal quantities as something 'very small' and of transfinite magnitudes as something Very
great'.)
Actually the only way to state the fact that a definite proportion
A is included in the class B is to assert the proposition
of the class
161
N
(3)
(J5//0
0) (x)
(Ex.)
Axt&B
n>m & =
:
or
to
it.
(3) is
no
5
tautology, for, as was seen above it is conceivable that it were false.
And hence the assumption that when two classes intersect there must
as a self-correcting operation. 7
It can be proved that if the statement (3) is true, i.e. if a definite
proportion/? of the A's are 5, then also the statement
i
N
n>m-
(4)
i
i
=
=
N
is
i.e.
e.
such that
which are
B remains
number
finite
in the interval/?
& B xt
that
in other words,
convergent.)
is,
But
means
this
two
number of steps,
finite
in
i.e.
be accelerated. Such a
'technique' has actually been suggested by
Reichenbach. We shall therefore examine his ideas as
regards this
somewhat more
topic
2.
closely.
2
the inductive principle that 'the future will resemble the
past', that
p is the limiting frequency of A in S. This generalization we call a
posit ( 'Setzung*} of the fast order*
For
We
this posit
result in
infinite,
sequences
may
.
Ss
(We
shall
the proportion of
are /?i
p9
.
in these segments.
.'/vare
Some
We
of the s p-values
we
get in all s
We
We
there are
isl.
We
call
order.
qt
We
can now use the values /(#/) and /(#i, qk) for calculating an
answer to the following question, which may be termed the 'inverse'
of the question just answered:
What
is
the limiting-frequency,
any of the
among
all sets
of n members from
two
conditions:
(0 the proportion of
(ff)
is
selection,
is
qi ?*
The
calculated limiting-frequency
(/(?0; ffabQk) ) or shorter F&.
164
we
symbolize by
The value of
Ft,t
we
is
maximum, then we
amounts
to this:
We
the
We
165
e.
order is true means that the limitingin the sequence under consideration
characteristics
the
of
frequency
is as indicated by the relative frequency of this characteristic in the
observed initial segment of the sequence. That a posit of the second
order is true means that the proportion, among all sequences under
consideration, of sequences with a certain limiting-frequency of the
characteristic, is as indicated by the observed proportion of initial
of the
segments of sequences showing this relative frequency
first
characteristic.
it is clear that if all the posits of
the posits of the second order are
true also. But it is equally clear that this proposition cannot be
converted. For all the posits of the second order may be true, and
first order false. It follows from this
yet some of the posits of the
that 72 2 </2i. And this means that all posits of the second order will
the
first
become
with,
all
all
Generalizing,
necessarily
we can prove
become
that
all
posits of
a higher order
will
This
is
166
10
truth.
3.
reconsidered.
We
we
of induction.
It is useful
here to
make a rough
distinction
between prediction
generalization.
policy.
maxim
() If
all
it
proceeds according
of one of the following schematic types:
observed A are 5, then predict that the n next A are B.
167
If a proportion
question here.
(In view of the
p of
all
in science. 3
It
We
probability-type.)
shall say that a policy
We
is
We
on
induction.
and 1
Let n be an integer and /? a value in the interval between
inclusive. f(p,ri) is to be a function of/? and n which satisfies the
following three requirements: (a) for any given /? and n we can calculate a unique value of /(/?,); (b) the value of /(/?,) is in the interval
between and 1 inclusive; (c) the value of/(/?,rc) is different from/?.
Consider a prediction policy of the following type:
If a proportion/? of the n last A which have been observed are J5,
then predict that a proportion (as near) /(/?,) (as possible) of the
n next A are B.
168
will
rarer
If
predict
frequency in a set of n new instances of A following
an inductive policy we shall, on the whole, predict a too high fre-
we
its
be
futile:
is
best termed
an
oscillation
It is
look like?
If asked
beliefs
and
attitudes
beliefs.)
is
belief) to
If,
the attitude
belief.
be known, we cannot
on our terminology count as reasons
facts which, if known, would have been reasons for
adopting
a certain policy. Thus, for example, we must not
say of the fact,
that B actually became rarer and rarer
among A's from a certain
moment on, that this was already before it became known a reason
for adopting a counter-inductive
policy for predicting B.
After these preliminaries we raise the
question: Of what kind
would the facts about the world have to be in order to
qualify, if
known, as reasons for adopting a certain 0Mnductive prediction or
unknown
generalization policy?
first consider counter-inductive
policies.
What should we, for example, consider a reason for predicting that
the relative frequency of B among the next 100 A will be 45
We
per cent,
although the relative frequency of B among, say, the first 500 A which
we have observed was 48 per cent? As a reason we might count the
observation, i.e. known fact, that among the first 100 A the
frequency
of B was 50 per cent, among the next 100 it was 49
per cent, among
the next 100 again 1 per cent less, and so on. Or the reason
be
some other,
of
might
about the fluctuation of the
frequency
could be the observation,
say, that the
similar observation
B among
the A.
Or
it
A n has sunk
frequency of B among certain other properties A^
from 50 per cent among the first 100 instances to 45
per cent among
the sixth 100 instances.
This is only a very rough indication of
possible examples. And in
this place it is
important to warn against a misunderstanding. The
above illustration of reasons must not be taken to mean that
any
observation of the kind indicated would
ipso facto constitute a
reason for the prediction
under discussion. Whether the
.
policy
observation will be a reason or not for
adopting the policy depends
upon its relation to all the other facts which are known about the
case. Thus the 'weight' of some of the observations mentioned in
favour of the counter-inductive
policy may be, so to speak, 'counteracted' by some other observation
speaking in favour of a different,
172
The
the reader
The observed
facts that
cent,
was 50 per
among the
among the next
100 49 per cent, etc. confirm the inductive policy, always to predict
B among the 100 next A with 1 per cent less frequency than among
the 100 last A. This policy is inductive in as much as that it may be
said to proceed on the principle that the future will resemble the past
with regard to the 'rate of diminution' for the relative frequency of
B among A. The policy, moreover, conforms to the prediction-
scheme
for 'B
(i)
we
preceding
on p. 167 above,
if
for 'A'
substitute "showing
set
of 100
we substitute
per cent
less
of 100 A and
9
'sets
9
.
would strengthen the case which we are here pleading. If the argument which we have presented carries any weight, it must be because
it is difficult to see what other known facts (excepting beliefs and
other 'subjective' states of affairs which are admittedly incapable
of justifying a choice of policy) could conceivably be counted as
reasons.
attention to oracle-policies.
What would
173
may
it
be
it.
For
facts
is
'inductive
able'
and
'rational'.
It is
latter have, so
'Reasonable' and
and generalization may mean 'reasoned' in our sense, i.e. grounded
on past experience. But they may also mean the policy which will hold
good in future.
Thus, depending upon which use of 'reasonable' and 'rational'
we
mode of
a
reasoning about the unknown is
not that the inductive method possesses
some features, besides being inductive, which give it a superiority
over other policies. Its superiority is rooted in the fact that the
inductive character of a policy is the very criterion by means of which
we judge its goodness. The superiority of induction, in other words,
is concealed in the
meaning of a policy's goodness.
Our argument, it will be remembered, hinges on the assumption that the only things which count as reasons for a belief about the
future are known facts which are confirmatory of some inductive
policy. We shall not dispute that this assumption may be successfully challenged, although we see no way of doing it. But it is our
thesis that with a changed conception of a 'reason' we should have
to give up or modify the idea that the justification of induction consists in the superiority of inductive over rival
policies.
induction
is
the best
disguised tautology.
It is
175
CHAPTER IX
The
thesis
THE
they are established. This investigation has been pursued with the
chief purpose of answering the question as to whether or not it be
to find a justification
possible in the logic of the relation mentioned
for induction as an operation on
and in every-day life, has to rely.
We
in science
justification of induction
Our
question
and furthermore, as
it
seems, very important sense our efforts to justify induction have been
all in vain, since such a
justification is not forthcoming. Induction,
in other words, is in a certain sense an
unjustifiable operation. We
cannot 'prove', with certainty or even
that the sun will
probability,
rise
all,
tomorrow.
It is
conjecture.
On tho other
philosophy.
He says:
The most
illustrating
177
his
be our
rightly understood
this
The
2.
logical nature
more
It is
of Hume's 'scepticism
'thesis'
is
7
.
specific formulation:
take
*it is
not exist a
178
was shown
is
in Chapter
relevant to that
truth-frequency in a class of statements. The problem of 'guaranteeing' something as to the future is thus fundamentally the same in
both cases, viz. that of assuring that a proposition, about the truth of
will
be
true.
tee'.
(This, it must be noted, does not mean that it is the same thing
to guarantee that A will be
with certainty and to guarantee it with
will
probability.
merely maintain that to guarantee that
We
be B means
An
'
presence of
'know' that
B
be B or not.
'really' is going to
It follows that not to
we
get a contradiction.
The
thesis
if
the phrase
on the
is
thus interpreted
impossibility of justifying
B can mean
'
180
justification
induction becomes a
demand
subsequently lead.
To
grounds or reasons
some other
let
which are
somehow
perhaps
impossible to
satisfy,
but
To this objection it is
What would be the logical relation, we ask, between the
grounds and the
'inductive'
ones for judging the truth of propositions on future events? Let us suppose that the former were criteria
of the results to which an anticipation of the testimony of the latter
will lead. This would mean that if I had 'inductive' reasons for
anticipating that A will be B then I am bound to interpret any
subsequent experiential information so as to accord with the anticipation. But then the proposition 'A will be "B is analytical, and the
presence of A is a standard for the presence of 5, and the absence of
B a standard for the absence of A. This again contradicts the condition that A and B ought to be different.
Consequently in demanding a justification of induction we cannot
demand criteria of the truth of inductions. The remaining possibility
is that we demand something which can be conveniently called
181
N
'experiential'
know something
We
man's
intellectual faculties.
The
The
critical
and the
clarification of
constructive task
of inductive philosophy
present
to some
extent been in the nature of first sketches which it will be the task of
others to work out in fuller detail.
finally mention some points
on which a continuation of the task undertaken here would seem
to be worth while.
We
most
efforts to develop a
spite
of their
'failure'.
It
appears to us that
we have now
critical task
expectations.
184
NOTES
NOTE
In the notes any work is usually referred to under the author's name, or
there are several works quoted by the same author, under the author's name
followed by a number in brackets. The names of the works themselves are found in
if
the Bibliography. The references and quotations apply, of course, always to the
edition mentioned in the Bibliography, but the Author has in certain cases tried, by
instead of those of pages, to make them
giving the number of chapters and sections
to other editions of the work also. If no special edition of any work is mentioned,
apply
all
editions of
it.
186
CHAPTER
i.
Inductive inference
1.
1
and
the
problem of induction.
e. g.
Jevons
[1], p.
Ereignisse
2.
finitisiert.
The use of logical symbols and formulas in this book assumes that the reader is to
some extent famiSar with the symbolic language of modern logic. For any reader, not
acquainted with logistics, the following elementary elucidations will be added:
Let a and b be propositions. The conjunctive proposition a&b ('# and &') is true
only if both a and b are true. The disjunctive proposition avb ('a or 6*) is false only if
a and b are both false. The implicative proposition a-*b is false only if a is true and b
+b is true when a and b have both the same
false. The equivalence-proposition a<
truth-value ('true' or 'false'). The negative proposition r^/a(*not-a') is true when a is
false, and false when a is true.
If the truth-value of a proposition depends (uniquely) on the truth-value of certain
other propositions, the former is said to be a truth-function of the latter, a&b, avb, a-+b>
and a+*b are, according to this definition, truth-functions of the propositions a and
b. The proposition
>a, again, is a truth-function of a.
The proposition a&b, avb, a-*b, and a* >b are called molecular relative to their constituent propositions, a and b, which again are called atomic relative to the above com<
pound propositions.
Of two propositions, a and b, and then* negations we can form four conjunctions:
a&b, a&> >b, r^a&b, and (^a&<-^b. In a similar manner we can of n propositions and
their negations
n propositions,
disjunction
is
187
true.
(Ex)Ax means: there exists an x which is A or, in other words, at least one x has the
property A. (Ex) is called an existential operator. (x}Ax means: all x*s are A. (x) is a
universal operator.
The symbols used by us differ from those of Principia Mathematica inasmuch as that
as a sign for conjunction, the arrow instead
we, following Hilbert, use '&' instead of
of the horseshoe as a sign for implication, the double-arrow instead of *=' as a sign for
equivalence, and brackets instead of dots for combining and separating the respective
parts of a symbolic sentence.
It is of some importance to observe that phrases such as the proposition a\ 'the
property A ', the individual x\ when they occur in this book, are not about the symbols
but about the symbolized entities. Similarly, 'a is false*, 'every A is B\
V, *A\' and
'x is A are about entities and not about symbols.
On the other hand, a phrase such as 'Ax means' or '(Ex) is called' is about symbols
this
same
'
page).
A good modern introduction to logic is Cooley, A Primer ofFormal Logic (New York,
1946).
An
excellent text-book of a
is
Hilbert- Ackermann,
We
Laws presuppose the existence of causal (nomic) connections in nature. Their arguments
do not seem to us convincing.
Characteristic of the elements of a series are said to be intensionally given when they
a rule. Characteristics which cannot be calculated from a rule
but have to be determined by empirical observation from case to case, are called
5
For
7
Reichenbach
[4], p.
81 and 347.
Cf.
where the
series 01010011000011110000000011111111
proportion of 1's is 'oscillating' between the limits 1/2 and 1/3.
9
From the above expression (4) follows a proposition asserting the existence, for any
.
188
NOTES
1862), chap. v.
'
Remarks about
The
is
105*12.
105 a 13-15.
[1], 165* 5.
For a discussion of Aristotle's account of induction in relation to the syllogism see
[1],
[1],
4
5
Whewell
[4], p. 449fT.
Cf. Kneale
PL
10
11
12
l
14
15
[1], p. 25.
68* 29.
[31,71*8.
[3], 100*12.
PL 81*6.
1.
and
p. 6;
Kneale
[1], p. 44.
l8
SeeMach
[3], p.
[1],
10.
306.
19
1:
Mill, bk. Ill, chap, in,
'every induction may be thrown into the form of a
syllogism by supplying a major premiss'.
20
Johnson [1], vol. II, chap. x.
21
For significant examples of the use of summative induction see Mach [3], p. 305f.
and Lalande,
p. 8ff.
Mill, bk. HI, chap. n.
22
23
Johnson
24
2*
M Kneale
[1], (p.
The chapter
chap.
m,
m,
is
rv.
and
7.
5.
no
'inference
from the
observed to the unobserved without at least tacit reliance on laws*. It is not quite clear,
how this shall be understood. If 'inference from the observed to the unobserved* is
meant to include generalization, then Kneale's statement must be rejected as false.
For all generalizations cannot be said to 'rely on laws ', i.e. rely on some other generalizations. If again 'inference from the observed to the unobserved' means eduction
to us unduly dogmatic. It is hardly possible to
only, then Kneale's statement seems
deny that cases of genuine eduction occur. At most one might say that the rationale of
an eductive inference is a hypothetical general truth. And if this is what is meant by
saying that inference from the observed to the unobserved must rely, tacitly at least, on
laws, then Kneale's position in the matter would seem to coincide with Mill's.
27
Catnap [11], 44s and 110, especially p. 208 and p. 574f.
38
*9
CHAPTER
2.
n.
Hume's
p. 364.
theory of causation.
is
Hume
Hume
[3], sect.
[1],
we have no reason to draw any inference concerning any object beyond those of which
we have had experience.
*
Hume [3], sect. 2: 'When we entertain, therefore, any suspicion that a philosophical
term is employed without any meaning ... we need but enquire, from what impression is
'
Hume
[1],
bk.
I,
pt m,
14.
Hume
10
[1],
bk.
I,
pt. in,
Human
[1 ],
bk.
Nature there
I,
pt. iv,
is,
2.
6.
190
NOTES
*
Bestehen einer, von ihr ganzlich verschiedenen
Sachlage geschlossen werden. (Wittgenstein 5, 135.) Also here we are entitled to ask what is meant
two
by
'Sachiagen' being
We
We
suffice to
concept 'analytical'
make clear the use,
Any
(2)
A proposition,
(3)
17
18
it
is
true.
is
(necessarily)
- See
also Church,
R, W., p. 210ff.
10
See Revue de Metaphysique et de Morale 40, 1933, suppl. /, p. 15f., where William
of Auvergne is quoted, and the possibility that he had influenced Hume is mentioned.
20
21
Hobbes, p. 15ff.
Malebranche, Quinzieme fclarcissement. Malebranche
example of
the billiard-balls.
22
Leibniz [2], 26.
23
24
25
2*
Ill,
ch. xvi.
1.
[2], p. 53:
3.
1
as to these problems,
constitute the central question in the Kritik der reinen Vernunft, can be followed in the
Reflexionen.
2
Kant [1], 291, 292, and 726.
*
See
Kant
[3],
191
See
e.g.
Kant
[3
],
17.
selbst moglich?'. (Kant [3], 36). Cf. ibid.: 'Die Moglichkeit der Erfahrung uberhaupt
ist also
zugleich das allgemeine Gesetz der Natur, und die Grundsatze der erstern sind
*
Gesetze der letztera. In a certain sense, therefore, we are with Kant entitled
to use the word 'Natur' as synonymous with 'Erfahrung'.
5
Another important factor in this change in Kant's opinion was that he always seems
to have held mathematical judgments to be synthetical. (Kant [1 ], 496.) When this
had to be reconciled with the aprioristic nature of those judgments he turned to the
doctrine of synthetical judgments a priori.
*
Kant [3], Vorwort.
selbst die
II, p. 526fT.
and 534.
[4],
p. 29-63.
12
are, however, not causal laws according to the terminology followed in this
(See chap, i, 2 and chap, n, 2.)
13
The idea that the so-called physical world is a system of invariances or laws prewell stressed by Kaila in several of his writings.
vailing in the phenomenal world is very
They
treatise.
See Kaila
14
Kaila
[3], p. 81ff.,
[4], p. 14ff.,
II, p. 530f.:
'
restatement of them.
Kant [2], 1st edn., p. 189. In the second edition (p. 232), we read only: 'Alle Veran'
derungen geschehen nach dem Gesetze der Verkmipfung der Ursache und Wirkung.
18
19
20
81
4.
1
Kant
Kant
Kant
[2], p. 102ff.
[3],
21.
[2], p. 102ff.
application-problem.
synthetical or as
it is
irrelevant
this
law as a
an
So long as the class of functions, which are to connect cause and effect, is not specified,
the Universal Law of Causation becomes tautological. See Jourdain and Mach [3],
p. 270-281. See also Helmholz [1 ], vol. HI, p. 26ff. Helmholz's view is an intermediate
between Kant's and Meyerson's and illustrates very well how the theory about the
192
NOTES
aprioristic nature of causality
Kant
[2], p. 165.
on
this
Kant
Kant
19,
[3],
18
20,
and
22, 29.
22. Cassirer, E., vol. II,
p. 525:
[3],
Maimon,
p. 190ff.
of the rela-
and the
Cassirer,
W.
problem had undergone a radical change from the Kritik der reinen Vernunft and the
Prolegomena to the Kritik der Urtheilskraft.
10
Kant [4], Einleitung, IV, and Kant [6], p. 22ff.
11
Kant speaks of such principles under the names 'lex parsimoniae*, 'lex continui in
natura' and others. All these are modifications of a more general principle, which he
calls the
principle of 'die Zweckmassigkeit der Natur'. Kant [4], Einleitung, V, and
The
W.
H., p. 109.
of Fries.
4
8
Kastil, p. 296.
Cf. Popper [2], p. 52.
Fries [1], vol. I, p. 27
I,
and
35ff.
p. 28.
judgments
a priori
7
8
Cf. Nelson [2], p. 532: 'Die metaphysische Erkenntnis ist eine Erkenntnis allgemeiner Gesetze, und allgemeine Gesetze werden a priori erkannt. Die Erkenntnis der
allgemeinen Gesetze ist aber nicht selbst wieder ein allgemeines Gesetz, sondern ein
individuelles Faktum. Individuelle Fakta aber werden a posteriori erkannt. Also wird
auch das Faktum der unmittelbaren Metaphysischen Erkenntnis nicht a priori sondern
*
a posteriori . , erkannt.
.
193
theory of synthetical judgments a priori very similar to that of Fries and the
Neo-Friesians has been held by the Oxford philosopher Cook- Wilson and his adherents.
fl
10
. .
'
der
"Apelt
17
18
19
[1], p. 101.
77ff.
Apeit [1], p.
Apelt [l],p.
95f.
as the Friesians,
i.e.
zu dessen Bewusstsein wir nicht eher gelangen, als wir zum Bewusstsein des Magnetes
an sich gelangt sind; und so ist es mit alien Objekten der Erfahrung der Fall, deren
Subjekte* gegeben, und deren Pradikate nach und nach durch Abstraktion gefunden
werden.
6.
1
Some
Cf.
Whitehead
concreteness.
3
67,
3
Whitehead
*Hutne
[2], p.
[2], p. 39.
I.
Kaila
For a theory of causality slightly approaching that one of Whitehead see Russell
For a criticism of the theory about causal perception see Ayer's rejoinder to
[5].
[5], p. 27ff.
We
8
Meyerson [2], p. 136: 'Nous avons explique le phenomene, le changement, en
deduisant le consequent de Tantecedent, en montrant que le consequent etait necessairement tel qu'il a ete, r&pouvait pas Stre different de ce qu'il a ete, parce qu'il se trouvait
deja implicitement contenu dans cet antecedent.*
194
NOTES
9
Kelly, p. 24f.:
The
here
effect is identical
itself
unchanged.
all it is
The meaning of
the cause
'identity*
complicated by the fact that Meyerson often also considers the causal relation
quantitative equivalence (identity) between cause and effect.
One of the reasons why we speak of cause and effect as 'different' from each other,
obviously, is that they occur at different time-points. The time-factor involved in causality
has presented some difficulties for the doctrine that cause and effect are 'identical'. See
Meyerson [1 L the chapter called L'eKmination du temps. Also Renouvier, p. 26 and
is
Bosanquet
10
[1], vol. !, p.
258.
of the nature a with an effect of the nature x. The connection is between them as a and
and therefore must hold between any a and x, if they really are a and x
respectively/
11
Cf. Bosanquet [1], vol. I,
p. 174: *If, in an alleged causal nexus, the alleged effect
;*:,
12
13
14
Mill's definition of a natural kind is this: 'By a Kind ... we mean one of those classes
which are distinguished from all others not by one or a few definite properties, but by
an -unknown multitude of them: the combination of properties on which the class is
grounded, being a mere index to an indefinite number of other distinctive attributes/
(Mill, bk. IV, chap, vi, 4.) The doctrine of Kinds as it occurs with Mill has nothing to
do with synthetical judgments a priori. Cf. Mill, bk. Ill, chap, xxn, 7. For the connection between Mill's theory of Kinds and the theory of Concrete Universals see Acton.
With the theory of Kinds and Concrete Universals are connected Lachelier's ideas on
induction and final causes. The best statement of the theory of Natural Kinds and its
relevance to induction is found in Broad [1 ], pt. i.
15
[3], p. 8.
Bosanquet
7.
1
A which is not B. As
the equivalence between this proposition and 'all A's are R* has been a
matter of controversy among modern logicians. This controversy, however, is of no
relevance to the context to which our reasoning applies.
is
I.e.
well
known
f
'Notwendig heisst einmal das, dessen Gegenteil einen inneren Widerspruch enthalt . . . Es gibt aber noch eine andere . . Notwendigkeit; namlich dann, wenn
das Gegenteil einer anderen, sonst schonfeststehenden Wahrheit widerstreitet . . . Urteile
Kastil, p! 248:
im ersten, logischen, Sinne nocwendig sind, sind analytische; Urteile, die im zweiten
Sinne notwendig sind, sind synthetische. Denn was in diesem zweiten Sinne des wortes
dessen Gegenteil ist logisch moglich.
notwendig ist
die
'
CHAPTER m.
1.
The way
Some
examples,
195
it
any
comes about
definite
that
it is
Cf. Poincare [3], p. 189. Poincare, however, does not see that this leads to a point
is relevant also to the conventionalistic
arguments.
which
6
Cf. the following observation of Jevons in speaking about classification (Jevons [2], p.
675): 'Now in forming this class of alkaline metals, we have done more than merely
have arrived at a discovery of certain emselect a convenient order of statement.
a metal which exhibits
pirical laws of nature, the probability being very considerable that
We
'
some of the properties of alkaline metals will also possess the others.
7
The example of the melting-point of phosphorus was used for the purpose of
illus-
trating conventionalistic lines of thought for the first time by Milhaud (p. 280fT.). The
same example is mentioned by Le Roy ([2], p. 517) and discussed by Poincare in several
Poincare [3], p. 189f. Cornelius uses for the
places. See Poincare [2], p. 235ff. and
same purpose a slightly different example, also from chemistry. See Cornelius [1], p.
289ff. and Cornelius [2], p. 211.
8
This idea is expressed clearly by Schuppe, p. 240: *Sind die Bedingungen eines
natiirlich in aller Vollzahligkeit und ohne
Ereignisses erst voUstandig erkannt
behinderndeandereUmstande
dasEreigniss mussunter alien Umstanden eintreten.'
.
2.
Whewell
1.
[4], p.
453.
shall be
understood
'The business of
definition is part of the business of discovery. Ibid., p. 70: 'Induction is ... the process
of a true Colligation of Facts by means of an exact and appropriate Conception. Ibid.,
made by Induction, there is introduced some General
p. 73: 'Thus in each inference
*
Conception, which is given, not by the phenomena, but by the mind. See also Whewell
and defined
is,
may
be
true.'
Ibid., p. 39:
'
'
[4], p. 253ff. Although Whewell 's ideas can in part be interpreted conventionalistically,
he himself was of the opinion that the truth to which induction leads, in so far as it is
absolute, is a kind of synthetical truth a priori. For Whewell's ideas about synthetical
judgments a priori see the very lucid account in Whewell [1], vol. I, p. 53-75. (Also
Whewell [2], vol. I, p. 57-76.) It is most interesting to see, how easily Whewell's 'fundamental ideas', i.e. the general synthetical and a priori principles, can be understood in a
without the use of the terms analytical
conventionalistic way. This was pointed out
or conventionalistic
already by Boole, in an extremely interesting passage in The Laws
of Thought. (Boole [1], p. 406.). About the general idea of order and uniformity in nature
Boole, quoting Cournot [2], says (ibid.) that 'it carries within itself its own justification
or its own control, the very trustworthiness of our faculties being judged by the conformity of their results to an order which satisfies the reason.'
3
Bacon [2], lib. I, aph. CV: 'Atque huius inductionis auxilio, non solum ad axiomata
invenienda, verum etiam ad notiones terminandas, utendum est. Atque in hac certe
Induction
4
Jevons
spes
maxima
[2], p.
675.
sita est.*
Mach
Sigwart, vol.
The question
[3], p. 307ff.
II, p.
451.
196
and convention
connected with that of the existence of
classification, induction,
is
NOTES
7
Broad
The
discussion
is
of Natural
Kinds.
8
Mach
[3], p.
307.
[1], p.
and ibid., p.
some of the ideas of Poincare
physics,
11
opinions of
meant
is
here
13
'typified'.
With
p. 151.
14
Poincare was aware of the perplexing features in the not always easily
perceptible
from synthetical to analytical, which takes place when conventions originate.
(Poincare [1], p. 11 Off. said passim.)
15
The experiential instances, which recommend the adoption of a new convention and
the dismissal of a previous one might be called renegade instances. For this name and its
use see Aldrich.
transition
16
See Le
criticism of
17
Roy
[1
Le Roy
is
and
[2] for
to be found in Poincare
[2], p.
213-247.
p. 260.
18
i.e. all
Cornelius expounds his system of radical conventionalism in Cornelius [1 ], p. 277299 and Cornelius [2], p. 21 Off.
20
See Dingier [1], p. 6; [2], p. 135ff.; [3], p. 178ff. (here on p. ISO it is very clearly
stated that the semper et ubique of the natural laws is a tautologous property of theirs):
[4], p. 25; [5], passim; and [6], p. 340ff. For a criticism of Dingier *s ideas see H.
197
that definitions derived from past experiences will be suitable for new experiences
This is a question which must be decided by the new experiences themselves.
These experiences may 'correct' our definitions or suggest the adoption of new ones
instead of the old. Nevertheless we know that this process of altering the definitions
know
also?
does not take place from case to case, but that the definitions which we employ have a
certain 'stability*. To account for this stability is beyond the power of conventionalism.
It is the inductive problem recurring. For these ideas see Sigwart, vol. II, p. 45 Iff., Mach
[3], p. 139f., Meinong [1], p. 637ff., and Lenzen, p. 262. For a conventionalist's way of
dealing with these objections see Cornelius [1], p. 292ff.
4. Conventionalism
Cf. H. Weinberg, p. 40: 'An der Tatsache, das wir "prophezeien", Naturereignisse
'
voraussagen konnen, scheitert aller (Konventionalismus und) Dezernismus.
*
This observation underlies the following very good remark of H. Weinberg (p. 40)
in his criticism of Dingier 's theory of induction: *Gewiss, wenn eine auf Minute und
Sekunde vorausgesagte Sonnenfinsternis nicht oder nicht piinktlich eintritt, so werden
wir diese "Stoning" wahrscheinlich "exhaurieren'V ('Exhaurieren' is Dingier 's
expression for the process of completing the formulations of inductive laws by considering new circumstances.) 'Aber es war doch schon unzahligemal moglich eine derartige,
sich bestatigende Vorausbestimmung zu treffen.
3
Tne word 'compelled' is used here to mean logical and not psychological compulsion.
*
It is, for instance, very interesting to note that Whewell who, as was shown above,
closely approaches conventionalistic lines of thought in his doctrine of inductive truth,
at the same time underlines the importance of testing inductions, by making predictions
from them. *It is a test of true theories not only to account for, but to predict phenomena.' (Whewell [3], p. 70.)
6
This point was emphasized also by Poincare. See e.g. Poincare [2], p. 239: 'Quand
une loi a rec.u une confirmation suffisante de Inexperience ... on peut 1'eriger snprincipe,
'
en adoptant des conventions telles que la proposition soit certainement vraie.
'
Cf.
We
above
p. 45.
are here touching upon a point which is at the same time one of the deepest
sources of certain metaphysical ideas about language and knowledge. Of these ideas
the metaphysical systems of Bergson-and Le Roy, for example, are good exponents.
198
NOTES
CHAPTER
rv.
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
1.
x
1.
2. Induction
1
2
8
and deduction as
inverse operations.
Already before Jevons, Tissot had mentioned induction and deduction as inverse
operations. (Tissot, p. 248.) Jevons 's account of induction has been criticized by
various authors, thus
Those
Venn
([2], p. 361),
Meinong
([1], p. 656),
Cf.
Whewell
64 and
[3], p.
[4], p.
p.
20ff.
[2],
p. 207ff.
6
Whewell
[3], p. 103.
pp. 142-9 and 189-204; Mill, bk. Ill, chap, n, 4; Whewell [3], p. 75.
For the 'Okonoinie des Denkens* see Mach [1], p. 452tT. For induction and the
economic nature of thinking see also Kaila [6], p. !8ff.
9
For this resemblance see Couturat [1], p. 265ff.
10
For a further description of this method see Mach [3], p. 252ff. The invention of
the method is attributed to Plato.
11
Cf. Cassirer, E., vol. I, p. 136H It appears from this context that the description of
the method of science given by Zabarella were almost identical with Galileo's descrip-
Apelt
[1],
Galileo, vol.
II, p.
21.
13
See Couturat
14
The best ? xount of Whewell's inductive logic is to be found in Whewell [3], bk.
v and *i. Ideas similar to those of Whewell are expounded by Sigwart (vol.
[1], p. 265ff.
chap,
II,
II,
15
17
Ibid,, p. 114.
18
Ibid., p. 115.
19
Ibid., p. 75.
20
Whewell
21
(ibid., p. 64)
Ibid., p. 98,
p. 100.
II,
chap.
An
inductive table of
ix.
Whewell
induction.
22
This most important feature of certain common types of inductive logic has been
by Kaila ([6], p. 97). Cf. also above chap, i, 2,
23
2 and 4. Although Whewell *s philosophy of induction
Mill, bk. Ill, chap, n,
on the whole gives a clearer picture of the actual procedure of science than the induc-
stressed
199
by points in an imaginary ellipse, therefore Mars would continue to revolve in that same
that the position of the planet during the time which
and in concluding
intervened between two observations, must have coincided with the intermediate points
.
ellipse;
of the curve.
26
'
As
Stoll rightly points out (p. 91) Whewell never realized the significance of this.
seems to have assumed that the verification, which shows that the given data follow
from the law, was sufficient to establish the truth also of the law as a general proposition.
He
This
,
3.
Bacon
Ibid.
elimination.
3
Cf. Mill, bk. Ill, chap, m, 3: 'Why is a single instance, in some cases, sufficient for
a complete induction, while in others, myriads of concurring instances, without a single
a
exception known or presumed, go such a very little way towards establishing universal
has solved the problem of inducproposition? Whoever can answer this question
.
tion.
by
invalidation.
Cf.
It is to
above chap. I, 2.
be observed that the main task of the inductive logic of Bacon was to devise
a method for the discovery of necessary and sufficient conditions of given characteristics.
According to Bacon the business of induction was to find the 'form* of a given 'nature'.
That the 'form' is a necessary and sufficient condition of the 'nature* is seen from the
following statement (Bacon
est ut, ea posita, natura data
aph.
infallibiliter
iv.):
'Etenim
Forma naturae
200
alicujus talis
quando natura
NOTES
adest
Eadem Forma tails est ut, ea amota, natura data infallibiliter
fugiat.
Itaque abest perpetuo quando natura illabest*. That is to say: the form implies universally
the nature and
conversely.
ilia
We do not wish to commit ourselves on the question, whether the totality of properties of a
given individual can be said to determine a set. We must not speak of the set
1
X X
. . as the set of
z
19
properties of x (beside A). For the description of the mechanism
of elimination given in this section it suffices to assume that
v 2 ...isa set properties
of x.
2
This explanation of the meaning of 'independent' is somewhat
but
.
X X
imprecise
suffices for
3
223ff. If we consider
the three sets of properties A, By C; A, B, D; A, C, E, then,
according to the definition
given, the positive analogy between the sets is (the set, the only member of which is)
the property A, and the negative analogy is (the set, to which belong) the properties
4
Nicod, p. 229. Nicod is the first author, who has clearly seen the seriousness of the
restrictions to the logical power of the elirninative method which follows from
possible
Complexity of Conditions.
5
The possibility that the necessary condition of A is a conjunction of properties does
not concern us. If the presence of B and C is necessary for the presence of A, then the
presence of B is necessary for A and the presence of C is necessary for A. In symbols:
&
[Ax-+Bx&Cx]=~(x) [Ax-*Bx]
(x) \Ax~+Cx]>
conjunctive necessary condition
thus a case of Plurality and not of Complexity of Conditions.
6
Mill did not distinguish between Plurality and Complexity of Conditions (Causes).
From failure to make this distinction arise several mistakes in his account of inductionIt is
noteworthy that at least in one place (bk. Ill, chap, x, 3) he considers the possibility
(in our terminology) of a disjunctive necessary condition. He, however, mistakenly
describes it as a case of Plurality of Conditions. Cf. von Wright [1 1 ], p. 161f.
7
detailed description of the working of the logical mechanism of elimination hi this
case is given in von Wright [11], pp. 102-16.
(x)
is
section fn.
1.
201
is
is
the cause or a part of the cause of the investigated phenomenon. See Mill, bk.
Ill,
2.
chap, vra,
14
A detailed description
16
is
given in von Wright [11 J, pp. 116-19.
chap, vra, 4 and von Wright [11], pp. 97-102 and 119-26. Mill
also describes two further methods, called by him those of Residues and of Concomitant
Variations. These two methods, however, do not contribute anything new to the logical
mechanism, as such, of eliminative induction. (Cf Nicod, p. 220 fn. and von Wright [11],
Ill,
p. 160f.)
the
It is
and
For
2.)
residual
phenomena
hi inductive logic
Joint
18
19
Remarks about
5.
See
e.g.
2 and
3.
Fowler, p. 157f.
Mill, bk. Ill, chap, vra, 3: 'It thus appears to be by the Method of Difference alone
that we can ever, in the way of direct experience, arrive with certainty at causes.'
4
Ibid.
See
ditions
is
which being
the cause of B,
if
chap, v, 3:
realized, the
precedes
202
NOTES
6
7
Ibid., bk.
Ibid., bk.
Ibid.
This
Ill,
Ill,
chap, vni,
chap, vm,
and
3.
1.
is
Ibid.
14
above
Cf.
p. 65.
positive result.
2
Bacon
243 and Bacon [4], vol. Ill, p. 357. Cf. Ellis [1], p. 28: The
view
that it is possible to reduce all the phenomena of the universe to combinations
of a limited number of simple elements is the central point of Bacon's whole system/ It
is, however, not quite clear what the principle of Limited Variety, as it occurs in Bacon 's
philosophy, really means and to what extent it is covered by the idea that the number
of different properties of an individual is finite. For a lucid discussion of the Baconian
idea of limited variety and different possible meanings of it see Broad [6], p. 35ff. Bacon's
ideas on this point are probably related to another favourite idea of his, viz. that of a
complete and definite collection of all human knowledge. (See Spedding, voL I, p. 369ff.)
All these ideas might be regarded as kindred to the Mathesis-Universalis-idesi, characteristic of the systems of Descartes, Leibniz and other philosophers of the seventeenth
century. The relatedness between the scheme of an inductive logic and the Mathesis
Universalis becomes quite apparent in Robert Hooke's treatise A General Scheme of
the present state of Natural Philosophy, which was published posthumously in 1705.
Hooke tried to develop the general method of Bacon, without, however, contributing
anything essentially new to it, into a 'Philosophical Algebra' (note the mathematical
analogy !) which makes it 'very easy to proceed in any Natural Inquiry, regularly and
.
certainly'.
(See Hooke, p.
6f.)
Keynes, p. 251. Keynes introduces his postulate for the purpose of securing a finite
a/>rz0n-prebability hi favour of each one of all concurrent hypotheses as to a conditioned
property of a given characteristic. See below chap, vr, 5.
4
E.g. if the properties are sense-qualities. Cf. Kaila [6], p. 203.
5
similar objection to the use of the postulate of Limited Variety for the purpose of
assigning finite a /?jior/-probabilities to the concurrent hypotheses was made by Nicod
against Keynes. See Nicod, p. 278 fn.
e
Whereas Bacon resorts to the postulate of Limited Variety, the inductive logic of
Mill may be said to be based on the postulate of Completely Known Instances, although
203
it is
postulate Mill's
'
10
11
I.e. it is
Bacon
Hempel
[1], p. 31.
242.
12
Mill, bk. Ill, chap. xix. Mill also says (bk. Ill, chap, rx, 6) with reference to
Whewell, that his inductive methods 'are methods of discovery'. But at the same time
he adds that they are also methods of 'proof. It remains, however, uncertain whether
Hibben, p. 166. The author states that we may by the inductive method detect that
has been the cause of B in given instances, but that from this it does not necessarily
follow that we can generalize as to the constant conjunction of A and B. In this statement we find ourselves confronted with the source of much ambiguity in discussions
about the aim and power of the inductive logic, viz. the failure to distinguish sharply
between the following two meanings of the word 'cause': (1) A characteristic with the
*power of producing' another characteristic universally, i.e. always when certain conditions are fulfilled, and (2) A characteristic which is the only one that in given cases has
been conjoined with another characteristic.
14
Cf. the above quotation from Bacon (p. 63) and Mill, bk. Ill, chap, in, 3: 'That all
swans are white, cannot have been a good induction, since the conclusion has turned out
13
erroneous.
15
For this term see Nicod, p. 223. Nicod, however, states the principle only in the
weaker form that every characteristic has a sufficient condition. In Keynes again there
226) a corresponding postulate of eliminative induction called the principle of
Uniformity of Nature. (Cf. Broad [1 ], pt. n, p. 13ff.) Keynes has not observed that, since
the method of elimination which he describes is roughly that of Agreement, his principle
is (p.
Broad
[8], p.
],
19
The Baconian 'forms* and 'natures' have, however, also peculiarities other than
those of being simultaneously existing necessary and sufficient conditions of each other.
Bacon has rightly seen that other peculiarities must be demanded in order to distinguish
the characteristics as forms and natures respectively. Thus he requires the 'form' to
be something of the kind of a differentia specifca of a genus proxirnum (Cf. Bacon [2],
lib. II, aph. iv and xv). This connects his doctrine of induction with the Aristotelian
doctrine of definition (Kotarbinski, p. 11 Iff). Bacon also seems to have thought, at
least at a certain stage in his development, that the 'form' ought to be an external
feature (Kotarbinski, p.
physical property, the 'nature* again a
phenomenological
204
NOTES
I13ff).
Therewith his doctrine of forms and natures becomes connected with the
See Nicod, p.
and 'secondary'
229ff.
7.
1
induction.
Above
chap, n, 7.
2
Cf. above chap, n, 2, fns. 13 and 16.
3
See chap, n, 2, fn. 16.
4
These findings constitute the so-called 'paradoxes of strict (necessary) implication'.
These and other principles of modal logic, mentioned here, are explained in LewisLangford, Symbolic Logic (New York, 1932) or in the Author's An Essay in Modal
For a
10
11
12
rv,
1.
The
8.
CHAPTER
1.
v.
and
v.
1
Newton
Newton [1],
[2], p.
lib. III.
31.
what
interest
would
it
hypotheses,
they
then be to draw the conclusions and make the tests?
4
This is particularly true of Whewell. Cf. Stoll, p. 91
5
See Jevons [2], p. 152 and p. 218ff. Jevons uses 'hypothetical* and hypothesis' in
several senses which are not always clearly kept apart. (.Cf. Johnson [1], vol. Ill, chap,
fact that
12.) By the 'hypothetical* character of induction we here mean simply the
n,
When
demonstrative
however,
not
Jevons,
does
induction
certainty.
yield
ampliative
the first stage in the inductive process of thought,
says ([2], p. 265fT.) that 'hypothesis' is
the second and third stage being deduction and verification respectively, what he has in
in the sense of the so-called hypothetico-deductive method. See
mind is
Note
'hypothesis'
at the end of this section.
205
tive
chap, iv,
2):
206
may be
divided into
two
types.
In
NOTES
situations of the first type it
is clear or
'practically clear' which are the features (characterproperties) that possibly lend themselves to generalization. Of this type are many,
or perhaps most, of the situations in which we look for the cause
(condition) of a
phenomenon among a number of antecedent or coexistent phenomena. (Perhaps the
best examples are found in the branch of medicine called
aitiology.) In sucli cases the
istics,
generalization emerges from the observation of a regular concomitance in the occurrence (or variations) of two features (or
groups of features). The 'method of generalization is either induction
by simple enumeration or induction after the elimination of
concurrent possibilities.
That such situations are frequent in
every-day thinking is obvious and that they
occur in 'science' too can hardly be disputed. But it would be a mistake to believe that
all cases of generalization are of this
type. We know of no author on inductive logic, who
had held this belief; but some authors may be said to have
overemphasized the importance of this kind of situation in science. (Cf. Mill, bk. Ill,
4-7 on* the
xiv,
'
chap,
hypothetical method.)
In situations of the second type, the
possible generalizations cannot be 'read off' by
merely inspecting some experiential data. The introduction of a new concept is required
which, as Whewell says, 'colligates' the facts, gives them a uniting feature. As a prototype
of such cases, may be regarded the tracing of a curve
through "a number of points, the
coordinates of which (in a diagram) are given
by observation. Here the colligating
concept is the curve (or rather, its mathematical law')- It is, usually, first introduced
'as a 'hypothesis' which the points are
subsequently shown to fit. In this Verification
procedure deduction plays an essential part. The 'method' involved is thus: hypothesis
plus deduction.
Another aspect
to
make
Thus the hypotheses which we accept ought to explain phenomena which we have
observed. But they ought to do more than this: our hypotheses ought to foretell phenomena which have not yet been observed.' And the fact that a hypothesis has been
verified to fit given data is no guarantee that it will not be falsified when
predictions
from it are confronted with future observations. (Cf. chap, rv, 2, fn. 26.)
Thus hypothesis in science frequently has a double function. It introduces a new
concept or idea to account for observed data. And it makes conjectures about the
unobserved. The first function presupposes that an invention or discovery has been
made. And inventions are, as Whewell said, *happy guesses* or leaps which are out
of the reach of method'. (See above chap, rv, 2.) To fulfil the second function, is to
reason inductively. Thus induction enters as an ingredient in the hypothetico-deductive
method itself. Whether, in this connection, induction should be called a 'method* or
not, is a matter of nomenclature.
The difference between the two types of situation, just described, may be used for
distinguishing between 'primitive' and 'advanced* generalizations in science. And one
may suggest that use of induction as a 'method' is confined to the 'primitive' cases. But
even if it were true, which it is not, that the hypothetico-deductive procedure were *the
actual method of science* (Wisdom [2], p. 46), this would not, in view of the conjectural
character of scientific hypotheses, minimize the seriousness of the problem of the
justification of induction in science.
These remarks do not claim to give an exhaustive account of the typical uses of
207
note
in this
is
V Induction
ei
de
V Experimentation
(Paris, 1929).
Cf.
CHAPTER
1.
vi.
As a
most
sharply separated.
4
As first attempts in this direction may be regarded Bohlmann (1901) and Bernstein
(1917). Neither paper is mentioned in Keynes's Bibliography.
5
Similar systems for probability have been proposed by Tornier (in [1 ] and [2]) and
The
p. 151.
called
8
And
208
line
NOTES
rather than Keynes's, was
proposed by the Author in [7] and further developed in [11].
See also below fn. 16.
10
In Reichenbach [4] the probability-relation is first
(p. 56) said to be between events
(Ereignisse) and then (p. 57) said to be between propositions (Satze). In the further
development of the system the relation is actually one between prepositional-functions.
On the question whether probability is appropriately attributed to events or to propositions see Ancillon, p. 4, Boole [1], p. 247f., and Reichenbach [11],
p. 57ff. See also
below
11
fn. 11.
To
The
'
interpretation of probability in terms of such 'linguistic counterparts will not be
considered here.
12
That probability is always relative to some evidence has been energetically stressed
by Keynes, who rightly says (p. 6) that 'a great deal of confusion and error has arisen
out of a failure to take due account of this relational
aspect of probability'.
18
See above chap, v, 3.
14
In Keynes 's system it is explicitly assumed that the
datum-proposition h must not
Wright
[11], p. 193f.
fuller treatment see
19
For a
20
Cm
is
von Wright
[11], p. 199ff.
n! again
Ix2x3x
...
is
m j.
It
stands
xn.
21
2.
The
interpretation
offormal probability.
209
See Reichenbach
Model
6
On
[7].
later chap,
7
18.
[4],
vm,
i,
2.
Also
1.
it
seems to
us,
from von Mises or from Reichenbach, not to speak of earlier proponents of the frequency-theory of probability. It is emphasized by Braithwaite C[6], p. 125) and put
forward by him as an objection against the Frequency-Limit-Model as a proposed
analysis of the meaning of probability.
8
See von Wright [11], p. 80f.
9
See Reichenbach [4], 18.
10
to be
who
games of chance. Thus Locke (bk. IV, chap, xv, 1) says that 'probability is nothing but
but is, or
whose connection is not constant
the appearance of such an agreement
appears, for the most part to be so'. (See also below chap, vu, 2, fn. 5.) In connection
with a mathematical theory of probability the frequency-view made its first appearance
from the same year 1843, viz. Cournot [1], Ellis [3], and Mill.
(See von Wright [6].) Mill, however, in later editions of his Logic (see bk. Ill, chap,
xvm, 1) 'recanted' his earlier criticism of the view of probability taken 'by Laplace
and by mathematicians generally' and withdrew from the frequency position. None of
the three authors mentioned attempted a rigorous construction of the mathematical
calculus on the basis of a frequency-model. The first to do this was Venn in 1866.
Venn also was the first to make use of the notion of a limiting frequency. An improved
version of the frequency-theory was presented by von Mises in 1919. The modern form
of the theory is best studied in von Mises [2] and in Reichenbach [4]. A very good
semi-popular account is found in Nagel [5].
in three publications
12
v/hich
was introduced
14
A range model, in which the terms are attributes, is given in Kneale [1]. In the
most elaborate account of the range-theory which exists, viz. Camap [11], the terms
210
NOTES
"
Giiltigkeit).
Our
probability
definition
validity'
defini-
tion.
In the theories of Bolzano and Wittgenstein the set a is identified with the set of
atomic propositions, of which a and h are overtly truth-functions. This is the set of
and Vz' are
propositions expressed by the atomic sentences of which the sentences
molecular complexes. (See above fn. 15.) Our definition is thus somewhat more general
than the definitions actually proposed by Bolzano and by Wittgenstein.
As specialized forms of the Bolzano-Wittgenstein definition may be regarded the
definition of probability
Sigwart (vol. II, p. 314)
22
and
tion.
25
The
[1],
31,
34 and
is
iv.
35.
26
J. Bernoulli [1],
p. 224: 'nulla perspicitur ratio cur haec vel ilia potius exire
debeat quam quaelibet alia*.
27
See Waismann, p. 242.
28
The re-birth of the frequency-theory in the nineteenth century (see fn. 11 above)
was ultimately connected with a criticism of the idea of equipossibility in the theory of
Laplace. It was alleged that the equality of alternative possibilities must ultimately
consist in the equal frequencies of their realization 'in the long run'. See Ellis [3] and
xvm,
1.
211
See e.g. De Moivre, p. 251: 'As, upon the Supposition of a certain determinate Law
according to which any Event is to happen, we demonstrate that the Ratio of Happenor Observations are
ings will continually approach to that Law, as the Experiments
Observations we find the Ratio of the
multiplied: so, conversely, if from numberless
Events to converge to a determinate quantity, as to the Ratio of P Q\ then we cojiclude that this Ratio expresses the determinate Law according to which the Event is to
happen. For let that Law be expressed not by the Ratio P Q, but by some other, as
R:S; then would the Ratio of the Events converge to this last, not to the former: which
'
contradicts our Hypothesis. From this interesting quotation is clearly seen that it is the"
confusion of maximum probability with certainty that makes the inversion of Bernoulli's theorem appear self-evident. The conversion would be self-evident if we had
proved by Bernoulli that, supposing an event's probability to be p, the proportion of
that event's happening on all occasions is certainly p. But what we really have proved
is that the probability that the proportion is p on some n occasions, approaches 1 as n
2
By an
Law
of
Law
of
Maximum
6
By
Great Numbers.
7
The name
we have called
212
NOTES
9
It
^r^-
seems to us useful to
distinguish between a numerical and a
where
for the
probability that if two events have been
j
observed n times in conjunction, they will be
constantly conjoined,
The problem behind the Law of Succession can be
put quite generally as follows:
If an event has occurred
times on n occasions, what is the
probability that the
event will occur i times on the k next occasions? On the same
assumptions as those
made in proving Bayes 's Theorem, we get the value:
p. 264ft.,
is
i
J
On
all
we
get,
k! x (m+i)f
i!
If
will
m = n,
on the next
11
and
This
we
--~
value
n+2
for the r
probability
J that the event
has occurred
if it
^or
77-
(n+1)!
IV x mix (nrm)!
t ^ie
times in n occasions.
it
von Wright
If,
AT-values are
Cf.
+ k-m-i)!x
w <w
is
occasion, if
M^M^r
XM +
12
this the
further
x(n
(fc-i)/x(/H-& -h
xM +m2XM
<M'
a -f.
fuller
-fws xM's
to
,<m s
xM +m
1
1 inclusive.
The Non-
Law
Numerical
sions.
It is
a mathematical
fact,
213
This, as far as
[12], p. 196f.,
pp 4-9 and
[7],
4.
I
3
For good
Kneale
A characteristic use
[1],
27 and Nagel
[5], p. 30f.
mann
p.
own
Keynes,
B
and
p. 82.
de Morgan
[2], p. 213ff.;
Jevons
see, e.g.
[2], p. 257ff.;
Lotze
Edgeworth, p. 234.
See Keynes, p. 383 and Bobek, p. 207f.
Among such authors Jeffreys and Carnap are most prominent. Carnap 's Quantitative System of Inductive
Logic ([11], 110) may be regarded as a revival, with modifications and further developments, of essential
aspects of the classical doctrine of
6
inverse probability.
8
See Boole [1], p. 368ff. for very acute criticisms. See also Bryant and Broad
393-400 and [7], p. 19-23.
[1],
pt. I, pp.
*
Keynes,
removed
if
p. 377f.
probabilities of the
10
The
due consideration
problem
exist.
[2], p.
10 and
[7], p. 6f.
the Bibliography.
listed in
II
Laplace
[2], p,
214
NOTES
evenement,
il
probables.'
13
For the idea of 'equal distribution of
ignorance' see Boole [1], p.370 and Donkin
p. 354. In the first edition of the present work
(p. 121) an attempt was made to account
tor the
as a
of
equality of a
priori probabilities
what we mean by 'equal
consequence
For an appraisal of this
attempt see Broad [12], p. 119. Edgeworth and
Pearson ([!], p. 365rT. and [2],
p. 143fL) tried to justify the assumption of equality on
an empirical basis. All the
about the value of a
ignorance'.
possible hypotheses
proportion (probaare initially
equally probable, because experience is alleged to show that all
proportions (probability-values) as a matter of fact occur equally often in nature. As
Edgeworth (p. 230) put it: The assumption that any probability-constant about which
we know nothing in particular is as
likely to have one value as another is grounded upon
the rough but solid
experience that such constants do, as a matter of fact, as often have
one value as another'. For a criticism of this idea see
Keynes, p. 381ff. and von Wright
[11], p. 283.
bility)
'
upon general
already for this reason, no Confirmation-Theory at all in our sense of the word.
This incapacity, in our opinion, must be considered a serious defect of
Camap's treatment of induction, irrespective of whether one wishes to restrict the use
of the term
'Confirmation-Theory' to the treatment of converse entailment-relations (as is done by
us), or use it in some wider sense (as is done
by Carnap). See also above chap, i, 3.
3
For the idea that induction by simple enumeration,
although unable to reach certainty, yet contributes to an increase of probability in a generalization see
and
is,
Huyghens,
XIX, p. 454, Bayes [1], p. 406, Mendelssohn, vol. ii, p. 267f., Poisson, p. 161f.,
Lotze [2], p. 70. For the idea that the
strength of support which a confirmation affords
to a law is inversely
see
proportionate to the confirmation's initial
vol.
p. 170f,,
4
5
Broad
probability,
[1], pt.
I,
and Kaik
Herschel,
[6], p. 105f.
e
This is the form in which the condition of
convergence towards maximum probability
was stated by Keynes (p. 236f.) and Nicod (p. 276). Keynes, moreover, substitutes for
it a somewhat
stronger condition (op. cit., p. 238). The reason, why the authors mentioned do not discuss the condition in the
simple form, first introduced in the text, is
probably that their proof of the Principal Theorem is more complicated than the simple
For a
54f.
215
von Wright
[11], p.
For a statement of
this
axiom
in a
see
von Wright
[1 1
],
I76f.
p.
6.
Cf.
von Wright
p. 248.
[1 1 ],
2
3
is
discussed.
5
\ B is co-present
'Co-presence with A thus means "not-absence in the presence of A
with A in x, if either A and B are both present in x, or A is absent and B present, or A
and B are both absent. This definition of co-presence is made necessary by the fact that
we regard anything which satisfies the prepositional function Ax >Bx as affording a
'genuine' or 'paradoxical') of the law (jc) (Ax-+Bx).
confirming instance (either
1
6
'Co-absence with B thus means 'not-presence in the absence of B\ A is co-absent
with B in x, if either A and B are both present in x, or A is absent and B present, or both
A and B are absent. We notice that the two phrases "B is co-present with A' and 'A is
co-absent with B' mean exactly the same. Cf. fn. 5 above.
7
The Author has also worked out a Range-Model of the Principal Theorem, using
the general theory of measuring ranges which is developed in Carnap [11], It turns out
'
<
tion,
existence of such zero-measures can be deduced within the model. But it becomes
reasonable to assume that the ranges in question acquire a zero-measure ('become
extinct') because of the incompatibility of a new confirming instance fm + 1 with some or
other of a
And
8.
Probability\ scope,
and
simplicity.
Mathematical and
philosophical probability.
1
Cf. Keynes, p. 224ff. Keynes 's reasoning in this place
every detail correct.
216
is
nor in
NOTES
2
it
4
forceful early expression of this idea is Leibniz's comparison between
discovering
laws of nature and rinding the key to a cryptogram. See Couturat [1], p. 254f. and [2],
175
and
232.
Kaila
See
also
[6], p. 103ff., where an interesting suggestion is made,
p.
p.
relating the idea of the cryptogram and of simplicity of curves to ideas of inverse probaLeibniz's thought on the topic calls for a more thorough examination than has
bility.
Cournot
literature.
saw
in the
'
probability.
Kaila
and
and
[2], p. 139f.
Some prefer not to call the former 'probability' at all. Thus Carnap, Hempel,
Hosiasson-Lindenbaum, Popper, and others call the probability of inductions (hypothe36) speaks of acceptability, Braithwaite([6],
ses) degree of confirmation', Kneale ([1],
of reasonableness. These notions with some modern
p. 120f. and pp. 354-60) speaks
authors.
authors cannot, however, all be equated with the notion of philosophical probability
with the authors mentioned of the nineteenth century (or Grelling). Kneale 's concept
of acceptability comes very near the classical notion of philosophical probability. But
his followers
it is
important to observe that the distinction made by Carnap and
'
between 'probability/ (degree of confirmation) and 'probability 2 is not directly
comparable with the classical distinction between philosophical and mathematical
within a Range-Model (probaprobability. Carnap 's distinction is between probability
a Frequency-Model (probability 3) of abstract probability.
bility!) and probability within
To call probabilitVj by the name of 'degree of confirmation' is, in our opinion, somewhat misleading. (See the present chapter 1, fn. 3 and 5, fn. 2.) Mention should also
be made of the distinction which Russell makes in [7] between credibility and mathematical probability. By the former he means the probability of an individual event on
all relevant information as data. Russell's notion of credibility, it would seem, is
thus a limiting case of the generic notion of mathematical probability. (Cf. von Wright
[ll],p.302f.)
10
The
a
possibility of such
formalism
is
mentioned by Popper
([2], p. 245)
with a
'reference to Hosiasson-Lindenbaum.
CHAPTER
1.
1
2
Probability
PROBABILITY
This well-known saying comes from Bishop Butler. (See Butler, p. 3 and passim.)
Ramsey,
p. 169.
This doctrine
is
expounded by Ramsey,
p. 170ff.
This must not be confused with the fact that, on the above second way of defining
degrees of beliefs, if my belief hi a to degree/? and in b to degree q are true beliefs, then
belief in a&b to degree/? x q would be true too.
5
Consider the well-known psychological phenomena underlying the arguments from
'maturity of odds'. If I toss ten successive times 'heads' with a homogeneous coin I
am likely to expect 'tails' rather than 'heads' in the following toss. Various less successful attempts have been made to
justify such arguments on the ground of their not having
a purely psychological foundation. See Maibe, Sterzinger, and Kammerer. For a
criticism of these attempts see v. Mises [2], p. 166-72.
6
That
a true interpretation of the view taken by the adherents of the 'psycholoconfirmed from the following statements of De Morgan ([2], p. 172f.):
'By degree of probability we ... ought to mean degree of belief ... I ... consider the
word (sc. "probability") as meaning the state of the mind with respect to an assertion
on which absolute knowledge does not exist. *Tt is more probable than improbable"
means ... "I believe that it will happen more than I believe that it will not happen".
Or rather 'I ought to believe &c. '.
this
is
gical* theory is
'
'
213
NOTES
From the quotation in the preceding footnote it is apparent that
not realize this consequence of the regulative function of formal
7
De Morgan
did
probability.
Donkin (p. 354), after mentioning the principle of 'equal distribution of
ignorance'
as an expression of how beliefs are distributed on a set of alternative
propositions, says:
This being admitted as an account of the way in which we actually do distribute our
belief in simple cases, the whole of the
subsequent theory follows as a deduction of the
cases
we would be consistent. This
way in which we must distribute it in
8
'
complex
statement,
it
must be noted,
is
false.
It
if
Ramsey
2.
Rationality of beliefs
and success
in
predictions.
some known
2
'
proposition.
4
Keynes explicitly expresses the opinion that the criterion of rationality in beliefs is
altogether independent of any reference to success in predictions. (See Keynes, p. 107
and p. 322f.) In spite of this he strongly insists that degrees of probability, as rational
thoroughly misleading.
5
This important truth has been clearly apprehended and expressed in Venn [1], p.
150f.; Peirce, vol. II, p. 394; and Ramsey, p. 188, 196 and 202. (Ramsey, p. 199:
*Reasonable degree of belief = proportion of cases in which habit leads to truth. )
The idea of probability as a *guide of life* being a 'guide to success' is contained already
in Locke's opinions on probability. (See especially Locke, bk. IV, chap, xv, 1 and 4.)
Probability, according to Locke, is to supply the (defect of our knowledge, and to guide
the proof being such as for the most part carries truth with it.'
us where that fails
5
219
'
De Moivre
14f.).
(p. 252f.)
saw
*
For a detailed analysis of the relation of probability to possibility see Meinong [1].
James Bernoulli ([1], p. 212) calls probability a degree of certainty. He does not speak
n this point the account given in Kneale
of degree of belief, as does later Laplace,
[1], p.
B
We
124
is
in error.
that the gravest error in relating the theorem of Berin the interpretation of the relation of
maximum probability as one of implication.
might now say that the next-gravest
error consists in uncritically giving to the theorem the interpretation just mentioned in
(fn. 3)
Chance consisted
We
the text, according to which the increasing probability is taken to be a frequencyOf this error Czuber ([3], vol. I, p. 154) presents a nice example. He says:
4
Der Sinn des BernoulHschen Theorems ist dahin zu verstehen, das mit wachsender
Versuchszahl die absolute Differenz zwischen der relativen Haufigkeit und der Wahrsch*
im attgemeinen abnimmt. It is to be noted that Czuber does not interpret
einlichkeit
but
in terms of 'Spielraume*. One must accuse
in
terms
of
probability
frequencies
constant.
Keynes of a similar error to that made by Czuber, although Keynes on the whole adopts
a very guarded attitude to the use of Bernoulli's theorem for predicting averages. See
Keynes, p. 109, p. 337, p. 344 and passim. Cf. also Cournot [2], vol. I, p. 61 and v.
Kries, p. 81.
*
might be suggested that one of the reasons why we are apt tacitly to assume a great
in the sense in which it occurs in the theorem of Bernoulli
to be realized
frequently, and again a small possibility very seldom, is connected with the following
mathematical 'picture*. Take two events such as 'heads* and 'tails* in tossing with a
coin. In each toss there are two possibilities
we shall call them possibilities of the first
order
one of which will be realized. We can denote them with 1 ( == 'head') and
= 'tail*). In two tosses there are four such possibilities of the first order, 11, 10, 01,
(
00. By & possibility of the second order, again, we shall mean the class of all possibilities
'
of the first order, containing the same number of digits, which contain, 'heads* and 'tails
It
possibility
220
NOTES
in a given proportion. (E.g. the class [10, 01] is such a
possibility of the second order.)
Continuing the construction of such rows of digits, each one corresponding to a certain
possibility of the first order for the occurrence of 'heads' and 'tails', we shaU find that
the longer the rows become, the greater is the
proportion (among rows with a given
number of "digits) of rows which contain 'heads' and 'tails' in roughly the same proportion, whereas rows where the distribution of 'heads' and 'tails' differs
considerably
from the value |- become the rarer, the longer the rows are. Thus to each
possibility of
the second order there corresponds a relative
for
the
occurrence
of its classfrequency
members within
the class of all possibilities of the first order with the same number of
frequencies, furthermore, are found to equal the magnitudes of
those possibilities for the occurrence of 'heads and 'tails * in a
given proportion, which
are determined by the probabilities of the second order in the theorem of Bernoulli.
1
Consequently this mathematical picture of the possible ways in which 'heads and 'tails'
may be realized contains a frequency-interpretation of the possibilities determined by
the theorem of Bernoulli, and it seems
highly plausible to assume that this frequencyinterpretation will influence our inclination to assume that also the actual realization of
those possibilities will take place with frequencies proportionate to their relative
frequencies in the 'picture'. Cf. Ellis [3], p. 4.
digits.
These
relative
'
See e.g. Drobisch, p. 191; Czuber, [3], vol. I, p. 210; Waismann, p. 242. Note also
the remark by Quetelet ([2,], p. 12) that if a coin fell regularity twice on one face, while
it fell but once on the other, the
tossing of the coin might be considered as presenting
three possibilities, two of them in favour of one face, and one in favour of the other.
8
See
and compare
it
Or, if general propositions are also included in the class of propositions mentioned,
a statement about proportions cannot follow from them unless one at least of those
general propositions is itself a statement about proportions. This trivial truth is of farreaching importance. From it follows, for example, that from the knowledge of the
physical constitution of a die, together with the known or assumed laws of Newtonian
mechanics we can never deduce that the proportion of, say, aces will be such and such.
This would be possible only if this bulk of knowledge itself contained some assumption
about proportions, e.g. the assumption that certain causes, operating according to the
rules of classical mechanics, are divided into different categories in determinate proportions. (See also v. Mises [2], p. 90fl)
10
It is to be observed that the suggested measurement on the basis of properties of
symmetry merely served as an illustration. What is said here applies to all conceivable
ways of measuring degrees of possibility.
11
On the other hand the theorem of Bernoulli, when probability is interpreted statistithe
cally, ought not to be taken as asserting the Cancelling-out of Chance itself. For
Cancelling-out of Chance only implies that events will be realized in the long run with
Mises
[2], p. 129f.
and
p. 136.)
See Leibniz
ut
letter
from
was
e.g.
Laplace
[6],
and Condorcet,
p. 10.)
propositions of the probabilitycalculus can be applied to inductive predictions solely on the condition that we have
already made some assumptions as to the future, is related to the well-known statement
that 'probability presupposes causality'. (See Mach [3], p. 283, and Struik, p. 51 and
65f.) For analyses of the causal conditions for this applicability see Poincare [3],
p,
p. 64-94
4.
and Hopf.
9
.
By
in question.
vi,
2, p. 98f.)
and
*
p. 46.
Cf. E. J. Nelson, p. 580:
upon
6
7
bility-statements inductive and consequently deprives probability of the power of justifying induction. 'The Calculus of Probabilities', he says (p. 96 fn.), 'thus interpreted, is
questionable whether
apprehended
this.
Both Fries
all
([3], p. 18)
222
NOTES
9
10
Chap, vii, 2.
Cf. Popper [2],
p.
4 and Feigl
[2], p. 25.
11
Keynes
who
Jeffreys,
174ff.
13
and Hertz.)
our opinion, evident that this fallacy of thought underlies the whole of
as to probability and the justification of induction. Consider, for
example, the following passage: Keynes states (p. 309) that although it is not certain
It is, in
that
we
more probable
this
nevertheless be probable. That success is 'probable' implies,
seems to be Keynes *s opinion here that we shall 'generally* or 'on the whole* succeed
in preferring the more probable to the less probable. Concerning this implication as to
the success
may
future frequencies he states that it need not be certain. It is, evidently, sufficient only to
assume it to be itself 'probable*. On this point Keynes breaks the hierarchy of superimposed probabilities. This is fatal, because his argument then becomes supported by a
new statement on frequencies which remains unformulated but is nevertheless implicitly
species
16
5.
Hume
[2], p. 15.
bility.
This truth is usually expressed by saying that all induction proceeds upon the
will resemble the past, and that this principle must be taken for
principle that the future
of all proofs concerning the future. Cf.
granted without proof, since it is itself the basis
1
Hume
223
CHAPTER
viii.
von Wright
[11], P. 243f.
See also
Induction the best mode of reasoning about the unknown. The ideas ofPeirce.
The characterization of the use of induction as being the adoption of SL policy seems
to be of recent origin. It is used by Kneale (especially [1], pt. iv) and Braithwaite [5]
and [6]. With the authors mentioned and some other recent authors (Reichenbach,
J. O. Wisdom) the problem of the justification of induction may be said to have under1.
4
5
II, p. 455f.
Peirce, vol. II, p. 501 f.
Peirce, vol.
Chap,
i,
2.
Ellis
[4], p. 49f.)
'
Conversely,
must be
true.
224
NOTES
Thi
r,!
|4J, p.
2.
?A
Reichenbach
415.
'
Cf. Rieichenbacfa
The
hi
The
full
iS
/ ^
See
76 and 80.
posit of the first order consists,
[4],
limiting-frequency
falls
,-
225
,-'
3.
The
idea that inductive policies are self-correcting has been severely criticized by
Black ([2], pp. 168-73). According to Black (ibid., p. 170) the term 'self-corrective' is
a misnomer. A modification which experience may lead us to make in our generalizations, can properly be called a correction only if there is some assurance that the modifications will progressively take us nearer to the truth. As we have seen (this chapter, 1)
such an assurance can exist only relative to the (unprovable) assumption that the proportions, about which we generalize, do really exist. Of the necessity of making this
assumption Peirce, as mentioned above (p. 161), was not even aware. Reichenbach
([4], 80) explicitly avowes it and calls it the assumption that the world is 'predictable'.
J. O. Wisdom introduces a related assumption, which he calls the assumption of a
1
'favourable' universe.
(Wisdom
[2], p. 226ff.)
Cf.
10
Reichenbach
80.
[4],
2, fn. 1.
CHAPTER
ix.
'hit
3
on the head.
the nail
Russell
Russell
'
[4], p. 167.
[3], p. 14.
earlier opinions
on induction
The
logical nature
For the
idea that
[5], p.
see Smart,
of Hume
Hay
481.
and for a
[1],
For a
criticism of
critical appraisal
some of Russell's
some of his later
of
[14].
s 'scepticism*.
a contradiction or antinomy
is
inherent in the
demand
for a
our
opinion, fundamentally right and expressed with extraordinary clarity and convincingness, it is obvious that he himself did not take the view that they were 'grammatical' in
nature. This is clearly seen from Hume [1], bk. I, pt. rv, 7, where he considers the
consequences of his results for practical life.
226
BIBLIOGRAPHY
In Keynes, readers
will find
literature
Confirmation-Theory.
The titles of books and longer publications are in italics, the titles of
papers are in quotes. The classification of a work as belonging to the one
or to the other of these two categories is sometimes a matter of taste.
Following continental usage., we have listed names with the prefix de,
del, van, or von under the first letter after the prefix.
The following abbreviations of the names of some of the best known
periodicals in the field of the present work have been used: AJP for the
Australasian Journal of Philosophy, AP for Annee Philosophique, BJPS for
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, JP for The Journal of
Philosophy, JSL for The Journal of Symbolic Logic, JUS for The Joufnal
RMM
RM
phique.
'
ACTON, H. B.: The Theory of Concrete Universals. I-II. Mind 45, 1936
and 46, 1937.
AJDUKIEWICZ, K.: *Das Weltbild und die Begriffsapparatur*. Erkenntnis,
4, 1934.
JP 44 9
1947.
ANCILLON, M.: 'Doutes sur les bases du calcul des probability.' Memoires
de VAcademie Royale, Berlin, 1794-5.
227
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ANDERSON,
O.:
'
Fest*
Mind
60,
1951.
F.: Die Theorie der Induction. Leipzig, 1854.
Metaphysik. Leipzig, 1857. [2].
ARISTOTLE: Topics. [1].
APELT, E.
[1],
[3].
[4].
Dingier,
7, 1938.
Paris,
AYER, A.
J.:
1937.
BACON,
[2].
Novum Organum.
Valerius Terminus.
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
[5].
are quoted
Ellis
1952-3.
[1].
Comments on Popper
BARRETT, W.:
The
[7].
BJPS
5, 1955.
[2].
6, 1940.
[2].
of
Facsimiles
[1]
in
1908.
Ed.
Reprint
by W. E.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Deming. With comments by E. C. Molina. Washington, D.C., 1940.
E.: Lehrbuch der
Logik als Kunstlehre des Denkens. Berlin,
1832. Quoted from the 2nd edn., Berlin, 1842.
BENEKE, FR.
BERGMANN,
9, 1941.
'
[1].
'
16, 1937.
CL.: Introduction a la medicine experimentale. Paris, 1865. [1],
La science experimentale. Paris, 1878. [2].
BERNARD,
[2]
BERNSTEIN,
lichkeitsrechnung.
at Charkow, 1917.
BLOM,
BLUMBERG, A.
E.:
BOHLMAN,
Article
L.:
'Lebensversicherungs-Mathematik' in Encyklo-
BOLZANO,
B.: Wissenschaftslehre.
BOOLE, G.:
An
Investigation of the
Studies in Logic
I,
Teil
1952.
Probabilite et certitude.
Paris 1943.
Paris 1950.
1854.
[1].
Paris 1941.
[2].
[3].
[4].
et de ses applications.
(editor): Traite du calcul des probabilites
Paris, 1925-39. [5].
229
[1].
[2].
4b. Leipzig,
Sulzbach, 1837.
BOREL,
Les Probabilities
n D,
vols.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOSANQUET, E.: Logic. Oxford, 1911. [1].
The Principle of Individuality andValue. London, 1912. [2].
Implication and Linear Inference. London, 1920. [3].
BRADLEY, F. H.: The Principles of Logic. London, 1883. Quoted from the
2nd edn., London, 1920.
BRAITHWAITE, R. B.: Rev. of Nicod. Mind 34, 1925. [1].
"The Idea of Necessary Connection".' I-II. Mind 36, 1927 and
'
37,1928. [2].
Rev. of Jeffreys [1]. Mind 40, 1931. [3].
Rev. of The Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Pierce/
1934.
Mind
43,
[4].
'
I-II.
Mind 33,
[4].
Mm
[10].
Rev. ofvonMises
'Hr.
[2].
Mind 46,
1937.
[11].
Logic of Induction.'
MIL Mind
53, 1944.
[12].
Rev. of Kneale
[1].
Mind 59,
1950.
[13].
1
230
to
Probabilities.'
Philosophical
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BUCHDAHL,
G.: 'Induction
and
Scientific
Method/ Mind
60, 1951.
[1].
'
'
RM
4, 1951.
[3].
'Justification in Science.'
BUTLER,
J.:
PS 20,
[4].
1953,
RMS,
[5].
1955.
[6].
CANTOR, G.:
Leipzig, 1898.
[3].
ML
The Two
Concepts of Probability.'
PPR 5,
1944-5.
[1].
[3].
'
Reply to
Goodman
[2].
PPR 8,
New
'
York," 1949.
1947-8.
[9].
[11].
[13].
'
231
BIBLIOGRAPHY
'What is Probability?' Scientific American 189, 1953. [17].
'On the Comparative Concept of Confirmation.' BJPS 5, 1955. [18].
For reviews of Carnap's opinions see Bergmann [3], Hay [2] and von
Wright
[10].
CAVAILLES,
'Du
J.:
collectif
au pan.
'
RP6,
1878.
CHATALIAN, G.:
'
Philosophical
JP 49,
952.
[2]
CHURCH,
A,:
'
1931.
2,
[2].
COURNOT, A.
Paris, 1843.
[I].
1901.
les
[1].
RMM 24,
[3].
BIBLIOGRAPHY
CRAMER, H.: Random
1937.
Variables
and Probability
Distributions.
Cambridge
'
[!].
CREED,
31, 1940.
ihrer
Anwend-
[2].
Leipzig, 1903.
Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung.
edn., reprinted Leipzig, 1932-8.
[3],
JP
[2].
'
der
Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung.
[4].
VAN DANTZIG,
[2].
1931.
[5].
bilities.
3, 1952. [2].
233
I-IL
1949.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Works of Francis Bacon, ed. by
and Heath. London, 1857. [1].
'Preface' to Novum Organum. Ibid. [2],
'On the Foundations of the Theory of Probabilities. Transactions of
the Cambridge Philosophical Society 8, 1844. (Paper read 1842.) [3].
'Remarks on the Fundamental Principle of the Theory of Probabilities.' Transactions of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 9, 1856.
Spedding,
'
[4].
are here quoted from The Mathematical and otherWritings of Robert Leslie Ellis. Ed. by Walton. Cambridge, 1863.
ERDMANN, B.:LogikI. LogischeElementarlehre. Halle, 1892. Quoted from
the 3rd edn. Berlin, 1923.
and
[3]
[4]
'
Causality.
PAS 33,
1932-3.
[2].
Principiis non
ed. by M. Black.
'De
.
?'
In Philosophical AnalyDisputandum
Ithaca, N.Y., 1950. [3].
FEEBLEMAN, J.: 'Pragmatism and Inverse Probability.' PPR 5, 1944-5.
FELLER, W.: 'tJber die Existenz von sogenannten Kollektiven.' Funda-
sis,
est
Wurz-
burg, 1883.
DE FINETTI, BR.: 'Sul significato soggettivo della probability.'
Funda-
H.Poincarel, 1937.
[2].
[3].
Cambridge
Proceedings of the
[1].
Statistical
[3].
'Inverse Probability
'
Proceedings of the
1932.
28,
[4].
Society
Cambridge Philosophical
The Concepts of Inverse Probability and Fiducial Probability Re234
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ferring to
[6].
8, 1939-40.
FREUDENTHAL, H.:
'Is
MindS,
bility?'
there a Specific
1941.
FREUND,
J. FR.:
System der Logik. Heidelberg, 1811. [2].
Versuch einer Kritik der Prinzipien der
Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung.
Braunschweig, 1842. [3].
FRIES,
GALILEO, G.:
Leipzig, 1890-1.
'On
JUS
[1].
PPR
Infirmities of Confirmation-Theory.
8, 1947-8 [2].
The Logical Simplicity of Predicates.' JSZ,14, 1949. [3].
'New Notes on
Simplicity.
Fact, Fiction and Forecast.
'
JSL
17, 1952.
[4].
'
RMS
GRELLING, K.: 'Die philosophischen Grundlagen der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Abhandlungen der Fries schen Schule y Neue Folge 3.
9
'
Gdttingen, 1912.
PS 4,
1937.
HALMOS,]?. R.:
Monthly
51, 1944.
235
BIBLIOGRAPHY
VON HARTMANN, E.: Philosophie des Unbewussten. Berlin, 1869.
HARTSHORNE, CH.: 'Causal Necessities: An Alternative to Hume.'
PR
63, 1954.
HAWKINS, D.: 'Existential
17,
[1].
'Professor
19, 1952.
[2].
Jena, 1934.
begriffs.
[1].
Erkenntnis
[2].
1937-8.
ML
OPPENHEIM,
PS
7,
[4].
12, 1945.
P.:
[5].
1945.
[6].
1946.
[7].
[1].
OPPENHEIM,
1948.
8, 1943.
Mind 54,
Mind 55,
P.:
'
PS
15,
[2].
J. F. W.: A
Preliminary Discourse on the Study of Natural
Philosophy. London, 1830.
HERTZ, P.: 'Kritische Bemerkungen zu Reichenbachs Behandlung des
HERSCHEL,
Humeschen Problems.
'
Erkenntnis 6, 1936.
GR.: Inductive Logic. Edinburgh, 1896.
HINTON, J. M.: 'Quasi-Inductive Scepticism.' Mind 60, 1951.
HOBART, R. E.: 'Hume without Scepticism.' HI. Mind 39, 1930.
HOBBES, TH.: The Elements of Law. Ed. by Tonnies. London, 1889.
HIBBEN,
J.
HOFSTADTER, A.:
'Universality, Explanation,
and
Scientific
Law.' JP 50,
1953.
'A General Scheme of the Present Slate of Natural PhilosThe Posthumous Works of Dr. Robert Hooke. London 1705.
ophy'
HOPF, E.: 'Remarks on Causality and Probability/ Journal of Mathe-
HOOKE,
R.:
in
BIBLIOGRAPHY
HOSIASSON (-LINDENBAUM), J.: 'Why do we Prefer Probabilities Relative
to Many Data?* Mind 40, 193 1.
[1].
'La thorie des probability est-elle une
logique gen&ralisee?'
Actes du Congres International de
Philosophic Scientifique. Paris,
1936.
[2],
leur fondement.
'
Mind 50,
[4].
HUME,
Keynes and
An
P. Sraffa.
Cambridge, 1938.
[2].
Human
Enquiry Concerning
The Hague,
1937.
The Problem
of Inference.'
Mind 45,
1936.
[1],
[2].
[3].
[5].
Quoted
[2].
[1].
237
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Die Prinzipien der Wahrscheinlichkeitslogik. Annales Universitatis
Fennicae Aboensis, Series B, Tom IV, Nr. 1, 1926. [2].
Der logistische Neupositivismus. Annales Universitatis Fennicae
Aboensis, Series B,
Das System
der
2. Helsinki, 1936.
Tom XIII,
1930.
[3].
Wirklichkeitsbegriffe.
[4].
tieto.
.:
Riga,
1781.
KAUFMANN,
1941-2.
F.:
The
PPR
2,
[1].
son.
Princeton, 1937.
KEMENY,
J,
all Scientific
Philoso-
BIBLIOGRAPHY
KEYNES, J. M.: A Treatise on Probability. London, 1921.
KIRCHHOFF, G.: 'Untersuchungen iiber das Sonnenspektrum. und die
Spektren der chemischen Elemente. Abhandlungen der Koniglichen
*
10,
[2].
KOLMOGOROV, A.
N.:
Grundbegriffe
der
[13],
Nagel
[8],
Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung.
KOOPMAN,
1942.
KORNER,
[2],
S.:
62, 1953.
KOTARBINSKI,
VON
T.:
i.
LACHELIER,
J.:
Paris, 1935.
LACROIX, S. F.: Traiti llementaire
du cakul des
theories de ^induction et de
Jules Lachelier.
probabilites.
Paris, 1816.
V experimentation.
Paris,
1929.
t6s.
[5].
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Essai philosophique sur
Introduction to Laplace
Paris
les probabilities.
1814.
(Printed as
1849-63.
[4].
RMM
RMM
[I].
LEWIS, C.
LEWY,
I.:
C.:
An
Analysis of Knowledge
'On the
and Valuation. La
Salle,
111.,
1946.
"Justification'* of Induction.'
(Discussion in Analysis
C. H. Whiteley, and H.
7,
1940 by
M.
Analysis 6, 1939.
A. Cunningham, L. D. Sass,
W. Chapman.)
dam, 1953.
LINDENBAUM, J.: See Hosiasson-Lindenbaum,
J.
Los,
J.:
Todstawy analizy metodologicznej kanonow Milla.' ('Foundations of the Methodological Analysis of Mill's Canons.') Annales
Universitatis Mariae Curie-Sklodowska, F 2, 1947.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
LUKASIEWICZ,
rechnung.
L:
Die
Krakau
MACDONALD, M.:
logischen
1913.
Grundlagen der
'Induction and
Hypothesis.'
Wahrscheinlichkeits-
Leipzig, 1883.
PAS,
Symposium.
[1].
[2],
MAIMON,
its
Limit.'
Mind 42,
1933.
6,
[1].
PS
18, 1951.
MASARYK, TH.
G.: Dav.
'
McLENDON, H.
Studia
MEINONG,
MEYERSON,
rationelle.'
241
RMM 4,
1896.
Quoted from
the
BIBLIOGRAPHY
J. STUART: A System of Logic.
London, 3843. Quoted from the
8th edn., London, 1872.
MILLER. D. S.: 'Professor Donald Williams versus Hume.' JP 44, 1947.
'
VON MISES, R.: 'Grundlagen der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Mathe-
MILL,
[1].
Quoted
Wahrscheinlichkeit, Statistik und Wahrheit. Wien, 1928.
from the 2nd revised edn., Wien, 1936. English translation, New
York, 1939. [2].
'Uber kausale und
statistische
Erkenntnis
[3].
1,
1930-1.
[1].
NAGEL,
E.:
[7].
3, 1948-9.
242
Zeitschrift
fur philoso-
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NELSON, E.
J.:
'Professor Reichenbach
The
[I].
der
Ungewissheit.'
Vierteljahrschrift fur wissenschaftliche
sophie 16, 1892.
NYMAN, A.: 'Induction et intuition.' Theoria 19, 1953.
'
Philo-
JP
49,
1952.
A.: 'Die Unerweisbarkeit des Kausalgesetzes.
der Naturphilosophie 14, 1921.
OLZELT-NEWIN,
Annakn
[2].
Philosophical Magazine, 1907
PEIRCE CBL S.: Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Peirce. Ed. by Ch.
Hartshorne and P. Weiss. Cambridge, Mass. 1931-5. Peirce's
papers and remarks on induction and probability are scattered among
'.
his writings.
PiCARD, 3. :Essaisur la logique deVinvention dans les sciences. Paris, 1928. [1],
Les conditions positives de ^invention dans les sciences. Paris,
1928.
[2].
243
BIBLIOGRAPHY
'M6thode Inductive
et
Raisonement
RP
Inductif.'
114, 1932.
[3].
[1],
POPPER, K. R.:
"Induktionslogik" und "Hypothesenwahrscheinlichkeit'V Erkenntnis 5, 1935. [1].
BJPS
5,
1955.
[2].
[5].
PREVOST,
A.
[3].
le
[1].
RADAKOVIC, TH.: 'Die Axiome der Elementargeometrie und des Aussagenkalkiils.' Monatshefte fur Mathematik und Physik 36, 1929.
RAMSEY, F. P.: The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays.
London, 1931.
RANKIN, K. W.: 'Linguistic Analysis and the Justification of Induction.'
The Philosophical Quarterly 5, 1955.
REACH, K.: The Foundations of our Knowledge.* Synthese 5, 1946.
REICHENBACH, H.: *Kausalitat und Wahrscheinlichkeit.' Erkenntnis
1930-1.
*
1,
[1].
schrift 34,
1932.
'
Mathematische Zeit-
[2].
'
1932-3.
English translation
Philosophical Analysis,
New
in
York, 1949.
244
Feigl-Sellars,
[3].
Readings
in
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Wahrscheinlichkeitslehre.
1935.
Leiden,
[4],
[5].
'Bemerkungen zu Carl Hempels Versuch einer finitistiscfaen Deutung des Wahrschemlichkeitsbegriffs.' Erkenntnis 5, 1935-6. [6].
*0ber Induktion und Wahrscheinlichkeit. Erkenntnis 5, 1935. [7].
Induction and Probability.' PS 3, 1936. [8].
Experience and Prediction. Chicago, 1938. [9].
'On Probability and Induction .' PS 5, 1938. [10].
'Ober die semantische und die Objekt-Auffassung von Wahrschein'
lichkeitsausdrucken.'
JUS (Erkenntnis) 8,
1939-40. [11].
'
JUS (Erkenntnis)
[12].
'
JP
[14].
Begmndung
[1].
An
see Edwards,
*
Hay
[7].
vol. 16,
1937.
ScBLiCK,M.:Allgemeinerkenntnislehre.
2nd
[1].
245
Berlin, 1918.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
'Die
Stellung
der
'Gesetz
in
Kausalitat
der
gegenwartigen
Physik.'
[2].
und Wahrscheinlichkeit.
'
'
JSL 20,
1955.
SIGWART, CHR.: Logik. Tubingen, 1873-8. Quoted from the 3rd edn.
Tubingen, 1904.
SIMON, H. A,: 'On the Definition of the Causal Relation.' JP 49, 1952.
SMART, H. R.: The Problem of Induction.' JP 25, 1928.,
SMART, J. J. C: 'Excogitation and Induction.' AJP 28, 19*50.
SPEDDING, J.: Preface to the Parasceve ad Historian Naturalem et Expertmentalem. In the Works of Francis Bacon, ed. by Spedding, Ellis and
Heath. London, 1857-8.
SPILSBURY, R. J.: 'A Note on Induction.' Mind 58, 1949.
STERZINGER, O.: Zur Logik und Naturphilosophie der WahrscheinlichkeitsLeipzig, 1911.
lehre.
'
STOCKS,
J. L.:
STRUIK, D.
Theory of
'
Probabilities.
PS
1, 1934.
1
STUMPF, K.: 'Ober den Begriff der mathematischen Wahrscheinlichkeit.
Sitzungsberichte der philosophisch-philologischen und der historischen
J.:
E.: 'Eine
[1],
246
BIBLIOGRAPHY
*Gmndlagen der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung.
60,1933.
TREMBLEY,
J.:
'
Acta Mathematica
[2].
efiectibus
orhmda.' Com-
USHENKO, A.
P.:
8, 1902.
1889.
'
Monatshefte
WAISMANN,
8, 1937.
Baltimore,
1929.
'
WANG,
The
'
PPR
15, 1954.
WEYL, H.: Philosophy of Mathematics and Natural Science. Princeton,
1949.
WHEWELL, W.: The Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences. London, 1 840. [1].
[2].
BIBLIOGRAPHY
For examinations of Whewell's opinions see Ducasse [1] and Stoll.
WHITE, M.: 'Probability and Confirmation.' JP 36, 1939.
WHITEHEAD, A. N.: Science and the Modern World. Cambridge, 1927. [1],
Symbolism, its Meaning and Effect. New York, 1927. [2].
Process and Reality. Cambridge, 1928. [3].
For an examination of Whitehead's opinions on induction see
Kerby-Miller and Robson.
WmrrAKER, E. T.: 'On some Disputed Questions of Probability.' Transacof the Faculty of Actuaries, Scotland 8, 1920.
L.: 'Is there a Problem of Induction?' JP 39, 1942. [1].
'Will the Future be Like the Past?' Mind 56, 1947. [2].
'
'Donald Williams's Theory of Induction. PR 57, 1948. [3].
'Scepticism and the Future.' PS 17, 1950. [4].
'Generalization and Evidence.' In Philosophical Analysis, A Collec-
tions
WILL, FR.
[5].
PR
WILLIAMS, D.:
PPR 5,
1944-5.
[1].
PPR
5, 1944-5.
in
the
Philosophy
of Probability.'
[2].
WISDOM,
J.
O.:
'Criteria
by M. Black.
for
1945.
in
[5]
[1].
[2].
London, 1922.
VON WRIGHT, G. H.: 'Der Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff in der modernen
WITTGENSTEIN,
[1].
Ada
Philosophica Fennica 3.
[3].
1H, 1942.
[5].
248
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Tilastollisen todennakoisyysteorian vaiheita'.
('On the History of
the Frequency
Theory of Probability'). With English Summary.
AjatusU, 1943. [6].
Uber Wahrscheinlichkeit,
'Some
Kemeny
ZAWIRSKI,
Z.:
[3].
249
Lwow,
1935.
118793