Shayne B.

Kendig
Final Paper
PSCI 6601
Dr. Bratton
November 1, 2015
Chinas Rise: South China Sea Dispute
Research Question: How does China's military/naval posture in the South China Sea affect USChina relations?
Research Significance
Chinas development draws concerns from the Asian countries and the United States. Its
ascendancy displayed in South China Sea created a controversial issue that bring China and U.S.
into a cat and mouse game by showing what both can do for every advances it makes. It is a big
concern in Asia and in the world today in addition to the daunting issues of widespread growth of
terrorism. The reason being is that several states in Asia are involved and that the U.S. (great
power) is the main ally of the disputed states, while China being an ally of North Korea is lately
developing relationship with Russia it depicts a Cold-War like situation that everyone fears
(same actors involved). Thus, the issue needs closer attention by attempting to gain further
understanding of Chinas behavior through military (naval) posture in South China Sea to avoid
miscalculation that can result into a bigger conflict Cold War II or perhaps World War III.
Introduction
China has an interesting world view based on its history over the past century the one
hundred years of humiliation as eloquently discussed in Zhen Hwangs book, Never Forget
National Humiliation. After going through colonial oppression and semi-fuedal status for over a
century, China rises strongly and continuously displaying economic and military development. In
2014, Chinas economic development surpassed the U.S. as the worlds largest economy based

Kendig 2
on purchasing power adjusted GDP.1 Chinas economic development poses a straightforward
effect on businesses globally as foreign companies are running out of business due to its lowerpriced products.2 In addition to Chinas economic development, its military development has
taken a drastic improvement. It has grown stronger in the last decade ranking them top three.
According to China Daily, building a strong national defense and powerful armed forces is a
strategic task of Chinas modernization drive and a security guarantee for Chinas peaceful
development.3
Chinas rise has worried the United States, especially that its rise is perceived to be not
only focused on economic development but also on military development making their actions of
military posture in the South China Sea suspicious. The dispute involved six other countries in
South East Asia: Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.4 China claimed
territories based on the nine-dash line historical context that are technically owned by the
aforementioned countries based on United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas.
According to Council on Foreign Relations, the claim was originally based on eleven-dash line
covering Pratas Islands, the Macclesfield Bank, and the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which were
regained from Japan after World War II. 5 It was later simplified into nine-dash line removing
portions of Gulf of Tonkin. 6The mentioned neighboring countries such as Japan, Philippines,
and Taiwan have initiated deeper relationship with the United States to seek for security from

2
3

5
6

Mike Bird, China Just Overtook the US as the Worlds Largest Economy, October 8, 2014, accessed
November 29, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-largest-economy2014-10, passim.
Denny Roy, Return of the Dragon, Chichester, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013, 1.
ChinaDaily, Chinas Military Strategy, May 2015, accessed November 29, 2015,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-05/26/content_20820628.htm, par. 3.

Council on Foreign Relations, Chinas Maritime Disputes, Historical Context part, 2013,
accessed November 1, 2015, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/chinasmaritimedisputes/p31345#!/?cid=otr-marketing_use-china_sea_InfoGuide#resources.
Ibid, Historical Context.
Ibid.

Kendig 3
Chinas military ascendance due to the territorial dispute. The United States on the other hand,
has extended its support to back these countries. Consequently, Chinas military posture has
made the United States more skeptical on its development intentions if it is purely for its own
development or if it has hegemonic intent.
Research Objective
To understand Chinas behavior, I decided to narrow down the research based on its
military and naval posture in the South China Sea by analyzing their behavior in Spratly Islands
as one of the disputed territories they are claiming. The main question is: How does Chinas
military and naval posture in the South China Sea affect U.S.-China relations? (given the fact
that the disputed countries are allies to the U.S.) In addition, the paper will attempt to answer
more supporting questions such as: Is Chinas rise based on its behavior in the South China Sea
posing a hegemonic threat to Asia Pacific? Is it still meeting the national strategy of rising in
peaceful and co-existence manner with the world? Is the U.S. increasing alliance with Chinas
disputed countries makes China more anxious and skeptical of U.S. actions? Do both states
behaviors make conflict more or less likely to happen?
Research Approach based on International Theories
The paper will investigate the naval/military posture of China and how it can affect its
relationship with the U.S. The latest naval posture in the Spratly Islands is puzzling the U.S. on
figuring out Chinas intent; thus, it urged the U.S. to take some coercive action by developing
more alliance with China's neighboring countries. As a U.S. Armed Forces service member and
an MADMS student, I seek on understanding Chinas behavior first since its behavior triggers
the U.S. to stop China by using either compellence or deterrence as a tool for either containing
China or balancing power. I will use a holistic approach of understanding Chinas military/naval

Kendig 4
posture by combining the theories of constructivism, offensive realism, and liberalism theory in
order to examine every angle of behavior. First, looking through the constructivism theory lens,
the paper will investigate Chinas behavior based by aligning its identity to its national interest.
Next step will attempt to examine Chinas behavior on increasing foreign interest by claiming
territories (mainly the Spratly islands reclamation) in the South China Sea under the offensive
realism theory lens. On the other hand, it will also attempt to examine the U.S. behavior of
building alliances (balancing power). Lastly, liberalism theory will focus on complex
interdependency of U.S. and China to investigate whether war is likely to happen or not. I am
utilizing articles, political statements, historical events, and international agreements and laws as
my basis of analysis.
Concept Theories
According to Jacob Clausager Jensen, looking into the lens of International Relations
theories would vary as to which part of the globe it is applied.7 Although International Relations
theories cover a global scope, it has different perspective based on the region due to its culture,
historical background and many others. Using the Western International Relations theories can
result to wrong interpretation of Asia, in this case, would be of China. This is the reason why it is
important to understand Chinas behavior based on its own perspective, history, identity and
culture.
Constructivism Theory
As Alexander Wednt described the fundamental principle of constructivist social theory,
that people act towards objects, including other actors and their behaviors; thus, they act

Jakob Clausager Jensen, China and the South China Sea Disputes, July 2011,
accessed December 11,
2015,
http://projekter.aau.dk/projekter/files/54836889/china_and_the_south_china_sea_disputes.pdf
.

Kendig 5
differently to their enemy and friend.8 Actors acquire identities that are shaped based on the rolespecific understandings and expectations about self that are inherently relational to a collective
society. In addition, identities are basis of interests that are defined by the situations.9 Wednt
argues that anarchy is what states make of as it is defined by its interests and identities that are
often codified in formal rules and norms that make up the structure of institution, but these have
influence only in virtue of actors socialization to and participation in collective knowledge. 10
Realism: Offensive Realism Theory
Offensive Realism theory perceives the benefit of aggression is security defined through
power maximization. When a state feels threatened, all it aims for is its survival and security
against all odds; thus, projecting aggression is more likely to happen in exchange of security.
Aside from security issue, M. Taylor Fravel posited in his article that offensive realism asserts
that states will pursue expansion as they grow stronger, when statesmen perceive a relative
increase in power. As power is held to be the ultimate source of security in an anarchic world,
states pursue expansion to achieve regional hegemony. 11 In this case, state becomes more
assertive as it started to realize that it has the strength (military, economy, people) to back up
more ambitious interest, and thus, will also provide more stable security for the nation. In
addition, when a state feels threatened and sees that it does not have the power to back up its
security, state creates alliances to maintain a balance of power. However, this can result into a
competition of power or arms leading that make conflict inevitable like the case between China
and the United States.
8

10
11

Robert J. Art & Robert Jervis, International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary
Issues, 12 ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. 2015. 60.
R.J. Art & R. Jervis, International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues. 12
ed, Upper Saddle River. NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.2015, 60.
Ibid.
M. Taylor Fravel, International Theory and Chinas Rise: Assessing Chinas Potential for
Territorial Expansion, 2012, accessed December 10, 2015, 505-506.

Kendig 6
Liberalism: Complex Interdependence Theory
Complex Interdependence Theory is the opposite of realism. It has three main
characteristics: multiple channels connect societies, interstate relationships consist of multiple
issues that are not arranged in a clear hierarchy, and military forces are not used by the state to
other state within the region, or on the issues. 12 Economic interdependence is one example that
makes the use of conflict a last resort for states to use. Statecraft is used to negotiate disputes to
preserve economic benefits from interdependence of trade; thus, it encourages cooperation. As
Nye and Keohane posited that force is often not an appropriate way of achieving goals (such as
economic and ecological welfare) that are becoming more important. ..under complex
interdependence,,military force is devalued, militarily strong states will find it more difficult to
use their overall dominance to control outcomes on issues in which they are weak.13 The
distribution of power resources in trade, shipping, oil, and others not only results into a losing
structure of hierarchy but it also opens doors to transnational actors and non-state actors that
limit the use of force.
Literature Review
Understanding Chinas History
Researchers conducted in-depth study of Chinas history to understand its ascendance in
todays economy and military. As mentioned, the United States is skeptical of Chinas behavior
and its implied interest. As explained in the book, Never Forget National Humiliation, Zheng
Wang described Chinas selective memories based upon its century of humiliation from foreign
colonialists that shaped its policies and national interests. He saw that historical memory is more
than an understanding of history because the Chinese government defined history as a deeply
12

13

Keohane and Nye, Realism and Complex Interdependence, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015,
PSCI 6601: BB, 20-32.
Ibid, 24.

Kendig 7
political issue that shaped Chinas identity today. 14 In addition to how important is historical
memory to China is, Anthony D. Smith added this quote that described Chinas approach towards
its own history, no memory no identity, no nation. 15 This simply means that the collective
memory of the past binds the people together to work harder. With Chinas struggles for over a
century, the citizens and the government wanted to make sure that they are not going through it
again. The humiliation, including the Japanese colonization which was least expected by China,
was a traumatic experience in Chinas memories. To further understand Chinas nostalgic
behavior over its past histories, Zheng Hwang reviewed the Choseness-Myth Trauma (CMT)
complex that plays a vital role in defining Chinas national identity. 16 Zheng Hwang further
explained that the CMT complex is derived from Chinas past victories and great technical
accomplishment such as the four great inventions that made them view that other states are
equals to China. On the other hand, it also accounted the past trauma as a key component of
Modern Chinese subjectivity.17
Constructivism Theory Lens
Through this selective memory, it is understandable that Chinas protectionist behavior
somehow relates to social constructivism in which its interests is shaped upon its interaction with
other state. China sees the Western countries as colonialist based on its past experiences. Since
the U.S. is a Western state, it is unavoidable that China will be defensive and protective of its
own interest from the U.S as influenced by its historical memories. Hence, analyzing Chinas
behavior towards the West and its neighboring countries in the Southeast Asia, especially Japan,
it is understandable that its naval build-up and posture is related to its historical memory. China

14
15
16
17

Zheng Hwang, Never Forget National Humiliation, NY: Columbia University Press, 2012, 6.
Ibid, 7.
Ibid, 41.
Zheng Hwang, Never Forget National Humiliation, 41.

Kendig 8
is establishing its defense elements to protect it from state attacks this time is an attack for
disrupting their territorial claims in the South China Sea. Thus, the constructivism lens offers a
clear explanation of Chinas behavior; that it was based on its historical past that was influenced
mostly by its domestic interests of protecting the nation from foreign threats and of its intent of
gaining back its placement in the global hierarchy as how they see their country back in the
ancient period.
Chinese Activities in the South China Sea
Kelsey Brodericks article, Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for
the American Pivot to Asia, explains how Chinas recent activities compel the U.S. to pay closer
attention in Asia. She described that the South China Sea has a strategic role in the worlds trade
passes, encompassing 40 percent of its area extending from the tip of China.18 It includes the
Strait of Malacca which is a choke point for oil imports from the Middle East to the East. Chinas
claim may have deeper intention pass the historical claims; it can be that they are more interested
of the economic and military strategic opportunities that the South China Sea has to offer.
According to Kelsey, images showed that China started to reclamed lands in contested areas,
such as in Mischeif Reef (contested area by the Philippines), Subu Reef, Feiry Cross Reefs
(runway construction in the Spratly archipelago), Paracel Island Chain (construction of air strips)
and many others.19 The recent reclamation elicits the claimants and United States concerns over
Chinas reclamation activities over these disputed territories because this issue has not been
settled amicably. Chinas activities might soon be followed with the establishment of sovereignty
over these disputed territories since it has already started development and established foothold
18

19

Kelsey Broderick, Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American
Pivot to Asia, May 2015, accessed November 1, 2015,
http://www.project2049.net/documents/150511_Broderick_Chinese_Activities_South_China_Sea
_Pivot.pdf, 1.
Kelsey Broderick, Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American
Pivot to Asia, 4.

Kendig 9
on these areas. Its action signals the U.S. and Chinas neighboring countries that it is not willing
to negotiate and will continue to do whatever it takes to own the disputed territories based on the
nine-dash line historical claims. According to Wan Yi, Chinas Foreign Minister, Chinas action
was not illegal because it is building houses in its own yard and that the goal behind its
construction is only to help protect troops and support civilian activities in the area, including
search and rescue operations, scientific research and commercial fishing.20 In addition, China
blocked fruit exports from the Philippines and imposed a ban of tourist to visit the Philippines
due to safety concerns.21 This simply displays a coercive method, though not militarily but
economically to persuade weaker state like the Philippines to appease to Chinas wants.
Offensive Realism Lens
Looking into the Offensive Realism Theory lens, Chinas behavior of reclaming unsettled
disputed territories show that it is becoming more assertive to its motives to flex naval posture if
its national interest of gaining more territories is threatened by its neighbors. As a result, Chinas
refusal to stop its activities and continue construction on these disputed territories worries the
United States and its allies because it provides China the opportunity to project military power
farther away from its mainland territory. 22 According to the U.S. Naval Intelligence reports,
Chinas Navy is building a navy capable of global power projection, which worries the United
States of possible disruption of freedom of navigation in the area if China is left unchallenged. 23
The fact that China has the capacity to expand its navy through increased defense budget, it has
the confidence to display military posture to prove to the other states and the U.S. that it can fight
with force if threatened. This concept elicits the need of balance of power in the region a U.S.

20
21
22
23

Ibid,45.
Ibid,5.
Ibid.
Ibid,67.

Kendig 10
foreign policy to be global police. As a result, a shift or pivot of U.S. resources is allocated in
Asia. The U.S. continued to post stronger presence in Asia in response to Chinas actions.
Deployment of troops in Singapore, Philippines, Australia has been agreed by President Obama
in November 2011. Trilateral relation between the U.S., India , and Japan lately conducted naval
exercises, which can possibly send a compelling signal to China in reference to the U.S.
involvement in Asia Pacific Regions affairs. Thus, it may result into more skepticism towards
the United States affecting its relation. Kelsey Broderick highlighted ways for the U.S. to
effectively rebalance the power in the Southeast Asia by sticking into its commitment,
communicating a clear intention of freedom of navigation, or building up the allies security
capabilities to defend itself from Chinas future aggressiveness through compellence. However,
a question would be, will compellence stop Chinas military or naval posture in the South China
Sea with the hope of bringing normalcy into US-China relation?
United States and Chinas Perceptions
There are several scholars from both China and U.S. trying to understand each others
interests. The book Debating China: The U.S.-China Relationship in Ten Conversations contains
exchange letters between Chinese and American policy experts who played important roles in
steering bilateral relations Sino-U.S. relations. Kenneth Lieberthals (Brookings Institution)
letter to Wang Jisi (Peking University) briefly described the U.S. and China relationship. He
explained that both countries are mature and that despite the issues in the South China Sea, North
Korea, and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and so forth, the two countries have long been committed
to prevent disagreements and have continuously sought cooperative ties.24 He highlighted the
degree of success over the past three decades, despite changes of leadership and world scene, is

24

Nina Hachigian, Debating China: The U.S.-China Relationship in Ten Conversations, Oxford
University Press, Kindle edition, 2014, 1.

Kendig 11
truly remarkable.25 He explained the dense interdependency between the two countries. He
described that the two governments and societies interact very extensively in terms of
government dialogues, trade, transportation, education, agriculture, and so forth every week.26It
is obvious when both economies have become interdependent; neither side is willing to make
decisions that would injure itself because both need each other for development. Looking back to
Chinas ascendancy in economy and military, Kenneth Lieberthal posited that the strategic
distrust on the Chinas side is related to its past. The past convinced China that the West,
including Japan, sought to win and knock out Chinas greatness. Because of this, China
perceived that the U.S. must be so concerned of losing the no.1 ranking to China.27 He argued
that if the U.S. is worried of Chinas rise, it could have prevented it from joining into the World
Trade Organization, from opening U.S. schools to Chinese scholars, or blocking it from bringing
China to the top table in global economic affairs. Based on the U.S. perspective laid out by
Kenneth Lieberthals letter, it is obvious that the U.S. is trying its best to win Chinas trust.
However, will it be enough for China to trust the U.S. based on its efforts in helping its economy
and development, when learning that the U.S. continuously builds strong alliance with Chinas
neighboring countries involved in the South China Sea dispute? It would be perceived as a way
of disrupting Chinas rise and containing its expansion through the U.S. indirect way of affecting
its interest.
Wang Jisi explained the Chineses perception in response to Kenneth Lieberthals letter
that China and the U.S. are facing more interest groups and governments that are involved in
Sino-U.S. relations. The increasing number of issues resulted to a multilateral relationship

25
26
27

Nina Hachigian, Debating China: The U.S.-China Relationship in Ten Conversations,1.

Ibid.
Ibid, 4.

Kendig 12
involving other parties, which worries China of the U.S. possible scheme to take advantage of
Chinas territorial disputes with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and some other neighboring
countries.28 He added that China fears the U.S. security ties with Asia-Pacific region is directed
at China to compel Chinas lack of conviction on North Koreas denuclearization, arms sale in
Taiwan, and the urge of protecting undemocratic regimes (in this case, China is a non-democratic
country).29 This simply explains that the U.S. sends an opposing signal to China resulting to
distrust the U.S. actions. He also further explained the mutual distrust between the two is derived
from Chinas perception that the U.S. actual and possible intention is to penetrate in Chinas
domestic affairs such as military training, human rights, politics, and so forth in order to make
China a pro-American.30 He added that the U.S. is worried of Chinas international challenges
due to its ascendancy; therefore, both tend to be defensive and in denial of hostile intent towards
each other.31 This concept mirrors James D. Fearons Rationalist Explanations for War puzzle
of war in which states tend to miscalculate its adversarys intentions due to private information
or misrepresentation of information, resulting to a decision to wage war instead of negotiating.32
Chinas continuous military development and its overarching posture in the South China Sea
sends a compelling signal to the U.S. and Chinas neighboring countries that its ascendancy is
not for peaceful means but also for expansionist means. On the other hand, the U.S. alliance with
Chinas neighboring countries would mean that the U.S. effort to help China is a bluff; instead, it
wanted to disrupt Chinas rise and encircle China can be perceived as U.S. intervention in the
eyes of the Chinese.

28
29
30
31
32

Nina Hachigian, Debating China: The U.S.-China Relationship in Ten Conversations,8.

Ibid,89.
Ibid,10
Ibid.
Robert J. Art & Robert Jervis, International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary
Issues, 52.

Kendig 13
Complex Interdependence Theory Lens
Just reviewing the two states perceptions of each other, although both are interdependent
in terms of economy and development, if actions continue to be ironic from its verbal intentions,
the U.S. and China relationship will weaken. The exchange letters highlight the central theme
bound in trustworthiness and longevity of U.S.-China relationship. The conversations also
emphasize values and political differences between the U.S. and China that brought opposing
arguments influencing its relationship. Lieberthal brought up a good point regarding the U.S.
intention to help China in rebuttal to the perception that the U.S. is fearful of Chinas rise in
economy. As he mentioned in the previous paragraph that China was not prevented to join the
World Trade Center on top of flourishing education, agriculture, and trade exchange between the
two, it is obvious that its relationship is highly influenced by its interdependency for future
development. Although complex interdependency is present between the two, it would not
eradicate complex as it can also stir up more conflict when competition on development occurs,
which is present in todays global economy when Chinas cheap import goods affected big
businesses in the world.
Hypothesis and Variables
Based on both states perception towards each other, it already had a history of distrust.
Although both exert the effort to build and rebuild its relationship, certain events and actions
(such as the action over the dispute in South China Sea) bring both states almost back to square
one in terms of trust and diplomatic commitment. However, despite the cat and mouse behavior
of the two to prove who is stronger than the other, I believe that conflict using force is less likely
to happen. China and U.S. economy is interconnected and yet their economic relationship would
pose global harm if either or both resort to conflict using force. Both states are aware of the

Kendig 14
adverse effect if they decide to wage war against each other. Is Chinas overarching
military/naval posture in the South China Sea affecting U.S.-China relations? I believe in this
sense, yes, as it creates clouds of skepticism on each others diplomatic intentions urging both to
use compellence or deterrence use of force to prove its point. However, it is a compelling issue to
pay closer attention to as one can push each other to the edge (directly or indirectly) that would
result to conflict (through economic sanction, proxy wars, cyber wars and etc).
Case Study: Chinas Naval Posture in South China Sea: Spratly Islands Dispute
Chinas Growing Military
Chinas unique historical experience motivated it to be stronger and be prosperous. To
back up its national interest of rising China, it has taken the route of boosting its economy by
opening it to the outside world after the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. It changed
its priorities from being a self-sustained China to an economically open China to recover from
previous wars during Maos period. During this time, China gave little regards to its PLA as it
was too focused on economic development as part of the Four Modernizations. However, the
historical event in Tianenmen Square was a wake-up call for China when it realized its people
was revolting for democracy due to the economic benefits they gained from the reforms. China
realized that it has to empower its PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) in order to secure itself from
internal turmoil. A decade after, China also learned the lesson of developing its defense
technologies when it was confronted by the U.S. high technology used by its armed forces during
the Taiwan crisis (when the U.S. sold 150 F-16s to Taiwan during the dispute with China).33
Since then, Chinas defense budget has increased and is now ranked top 3 in the Worlds armed
forces. Its defense policy aligns with economic and social development as quoted,
33

Laurie Burkitt, Andrew Scobell, & Larry M. Wortzel, The Lessons of History: The
ChinesePeoples Liberation Army at 75, Strategic Studies Insititute, 27, July 2003, accessed
December 11, 2015, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB52.pdf.

Kendig 15
the requirements of national security and the level of economic and social
development, China pursues a three-step development strategy to modernize its national
defense and armed forces step by step in a well-planned way. This strategic framework is
defined as follows:..Promoting the informationization of Chinas national defense and
armed forcesOverall planning of economic development and national defense
building..Deepening the reform of national defense and armed forcesTaking the road of
leapfrog development34
It is obvious that Chinas purpose of increasing and improving its military was because of
security threat it faced internally and externally. It has embraced the realist theory for survival.
However, we will examine Chinas naval posture in relation to the increasing development of its
defense to determine if its intent was for protection from threat or from disturbance of achieving
national interest in line with taking the leapfrog development (that includes claiming territories
in the South China Sea).
Spratly Islands Dispute
The South China Sea has an interesting history due to its ambiguous turn-over of island
territories after World War II. The South China Sea was controlled by Britain, France and Japan
towards the end of the nineteenth century.35 The islands in the South China Sea are reported to
have substantial petroleum oil and other untapped natural deposits that caused littoral states to
increase interests in claiming the islands. However due to improper settlements or unclear
settlement of the islands during post World War II, the issue has become complicated and the
fight over ownership has become a security concern in the Pacific. One of the most disputed one
today is the Spratly Islands. As mentioned in the introduction paragraph, China has been
attempting to claim islands in the South China Sea and one of them is the Spratly Islands. The
islands are an archipelago that comprises of over one hundred widely scattered islands, islets,
34

35

Ministry of National Defense The Peoples Republic of China, Defense Technology, 2015,
accessed December 11, 2015, 2015, http://eng.mod.gov.cn/Database/Tech/index.htm#.
Robin Gonzales, The Spratly Islands Dispute International Law, Conflicting Claims, and
Alternative Frameworks for Dispute Resolution, 2014, accessed December 11, 2015,
http://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1094&context=award, 17.

Kendig 16
banks and rocks spread across a surface area78 estimated to be around 410,000 square kilometers
(km2) of water Under the UNCLOS definition, only forty of the Spratly features are
considered islands, with the largest island spanning less than 1.7 kilometers (km).36 The claims
of Brunei, Philippine and Vietnam are within the UNCLOS; however, Chinas claims are not.
The unsettled dispute has pulled the U.S. to be involved with the issue since China has become
more assertive on their claims through the display of naval posture.
Chinas Reclamation Activities at Spratly Islands
In early 2015, reports showed that China is reclaming some of Spratly Islands. As shown
in the satellite, it showed air field strips that seemed feared its neighboring countries and the U.S.
This is also perceived that China is setting up its military expansion further away from its land
base. The fact that Spratly Islands sit in a strategic location for trade routes, not to mention the
reported untapped resources, it seems like China wanted to take control of trade routes in the
Pacific by taking not backing down on its territorial claim and showing naval posture in the area.
In addition, report said that China was completing a runway of one of its seven man-made
outposts. It also highlighted that Chinas built carriers will be ready to deploy by 2020 as part of
their on-going blue-water navy.37
Chinas naval posture and naval development is a compelling issue, especially on how it
is used in the South China Sea dispute, particularly in the Spratly Islands. Although it has been
discussed earlier that Chinas nature of development is peaceful and with aims to co-exist with
the world, their actions and words have inconsistency. The fact that the disputed states have filed
for arbitration against Chinas sporadic claims because it was compelled by Chinas behavior, it

36
37

Ibid, 19-20.
Ritchie B. Tongo, Chinas Land Reclamation in South China Sea Grows: Pentagon Report,
August 21, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinaseachina-pentagon-idUSKCN0QQ0S920150821#P7VwDXXShvWcitvY.97.

Kendig 17
is obvious that China is displaying a hegemonic behavior looking through the offensive realism
theory. Disputing its action by using the constructivism theory would not justify its behavior.
Constructivism theory is based upon its identity and interest that is within the social norm
(international global norm as specified by UNCLOS). If examining its action based on other
states actions, China was the first one to initiate territorial claims and was the first one to
solidify it by reclaming the islands and securing it with naval posture. China was not initially
compelled or aggravated that caused the issue in the South China Sea more serious than before.
Freedom of Navigation
As discussed in the literature review, it is inevitable that the U.S. will be involved in the
issues of South China Sea. As the Spratly Islands reclamation increased its land acre, the U.S.
being the allies of the disputed states are now wary on stopping Chinas activities in the islands.
According to a report in October 2015, A U.S. Navy patrol around Chines-build islands in the
South China Sea has set the stage for a flurry of diplomacy in Asia38. The fact that Spratly
Islands hold a geopolitical and geostrategic importance for maritime and military navigation; it is
an issue that a great power cannot ignore. Freedom of navigation is a cause that the U.S. has
fought since the World War I, and now the tension has shifted in the Pacific that will greatly
affect trade dependent on the trade routes along the South China Sea if left unattended. In
response to Chinas behavior, the U.S. is urging allies and partners to conduct their own
freedom-of-navigation patrols. 39 The U.S. added, We are encouraging other nations to
exercise their rights under international law, similar to the way we exercised our rights,40
Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun , on the other hand, replied, We urge the U.S.
38

39
40

Jeremy Page et. al. U.S., China Posture for Support in South China Sea Standoff, October 29,
2015, December 11, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-posture-for-support-in-theirmaritime-standoff-1446140624.
Ibid.
Ibid.

Kendig 18
not to go further and further on the wrong road But if the U.S. insists, we will take all
necessary measures as required.41
It is obvious that the U.S. involvement displays balancing theory. According to Waltz, it
is defined as allying with others against the prevailing threat.42 In this case, the U.S. is improving
its alliance with the disputed states in the South China Sea and encouraged others to do the same.
The purpose is to prevent stronger powers from dominating the other weaker state. In this case, it
is the Philippines and Vietnam that are actively involved in the Spratly Islands dispute. The U.S.
action also displays compellence use of force to stop China from continuous reclamation
activities. However, it still did not threaten China; instead it warned the U.S. for unspecified
consequences if it continues to conduct more patrols around the artificial islands.43
Economic Interdependency
The U.S. and China are still entangled into the economic web. As discussed in
Lieberthals letter in the literature review, China and U.S. need each other for development.
According to the latest news highlighted in the Business Insider,
Both countries needed new recipes for revival and growth, and turned to each other in a marriage
of convenience. China provided cheap goods that enabled income-constrained American
consumers to make ends meet, and the US provided the external demand that underpinned Deng
Xiaopings export-led growth strategy.
Over the years, this arrangement morphed into a deeper relationship. Lacking in saving
and wanting to grow, the US relied increasingly on Chinas vast reservoir of surplus
saving to make ends meet. Anchoring its currency to the dollar, the Chinese built up a
huge stake in US Treasuries, which helped America fund record budget deficits. America
provided China with both stability and growth anchors. China enabled the US to sidestep

41
42

43

Ibid.
Robert J. Art & Robert Jervis, International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary
Issues, 110-112.
Jeremy Page et. al. U.S., China Posture for Support in South China Sea Standoff.

Kendig 19
the mounting perils of subpar saving, reckless fiscal policy, and weak household income
growth.44
However, China is reported to change its economic model from exports to consumption while
redefining its national character that represents the rejuvenation of Chinas Dream. It is now
investing with new institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New
Development Bank and many others, which concerns the U.S. Although Xi Jinping stressed that
the need for both the U.S. and China to deepen mutual understandings of strategic intentions,
there was disconnect of agendas to be addressed. However they found a new commitment on
addressing cybercrime, which can be another outlet that the U.S. and China can share to continue
its interdependence. The interdependent relationship that China and U.S. have is another
limiting factor that would make both or either wage to war over the dispute in South China Sea,
especially the naval confrontation over Spratly islands dispute. Both are powerful state with big
economic stake that can largely impact the global economy if the two decides to wage war.
Although the shift of economic policies of China may worry the U.S. as it may slowly attain its
independence from the U.S.it is still unlikely for China to have a complete independence from
the U.S. economy unless it decides to isolate its trade from the U.S. market. Chinas economy,
even if it is number three in the list cannot sustain the number of population it has based on its
total GDP. China is still suffering from low income and it would still rely on export market to
gain outside profit.
Conclusion
Chinas territorial claims backed with naval posture bring an alarming concern, especially
for the U.S. It is understandable that the U.S. and the disputed states are wary of war going to
44

Stephen Roach, The US and China are tapped in a web of economic co-dependency, October 2,
2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-and-china-are-trapped-in-a-web-of-economic-codependency-2015-9.

Kendig 20
erupt soon due to miscalculations. However, based on Chinas historical background that shapes
its identity and interests, it is expected that China is assertive to achieve its national interest. The
way China expresses its national interest can be aggressive because it did not want to be
humiliated again. It has been prideful of its accomplishment since ancient period and now that it
is slowly back on its feet, it is anxious of achieving the Chinas Dream. Its behavior reflects a
combination of active and passive assertion in which it wanted peace but it sometimes expresses
confrontation that is why it easily falls under the offensive realism theory when its action can be
interpreted as hegemonic. Basing on Chinas foreign policy and past history of not wanting to
intervene other states interest, there is a slim chance that China would not wage wars against the
disputed states in the South China Sea and the U.S. Also, with its other appalling domestic issues
that it has to resolve, China is seeking for economic and other outlet to seek outside help in
alleviating domestic issues such as poverty, low income, pollution, low standard of living, and
others. Chinas military and naval posture in the U.S. may have affected its relationship due to
the presence of unresolved mistrust between the two. However, the mistrust will always remain
between them due to the concealed information that has always been a part in the puzzles of war
and security dilemma to ensure that its interest is protected. It is obvious that the U.S. is slowly
losing its power and it has made the U.S. insecure of Chinas rise yet worried other great powers
because it is growing exponentially. The great powers including the neighboring countries are
not familiar of what it can do with its rising power. But it needs a careful analysis to interpret
each others behavior as it can result into a miscalculation that may cause into military skirmish
or other way of confrontation either through cyber war or arms race resulting to the Cold War 2.
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