Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
04 September 2015
Index
% Change
Last Close
Page
No.
Corporate News
Page
No.
Industrial Production
U.S. (S&P)*
UK (FTSE)*
WTD
YTD
1,951
(1.9)
(5.2)
6,094
(2.5)
(7.2)
17,792
(7.0)
2.0
Germany (DAX)*
10,130
(1.6)
3.3
4,571
(2.2)
7.0
21,738
(1.2)
14.3
9,885
(4.5)
(3.8)
Macro-Economic News
Consumer Durables
Capital Goods
Outlook
Italy (FTSEMIB)*
Global Indices
Event Calendar
Spain (IBEX)*
Government Bond
France (CAC)*
25,199
(4.5)
(8.4)
India (Nifty)
7,655
(4.3)
(7.6)
China (Shanghai)
3,160
(2.2)
(2.3)
Russia (Micex)*
Brazil (Ibov)*
1,710
(0.6)
22.4
47,366
0.4
(5.3)
20,841
(3.6)
(11.7)
1,886
(2.7)
(1.5)
(` Mn)
150000
8522
100000
8565
8533
8800
8519
8600
8300
8400
50000
8002
8200
8000
7800
(50000)
7600
7655
(100000)
(150000)
7400
7200
24-Jul
31-Jul
07-Aug
FII (LHS)
Nifty (RHS)
Source: NSE
Korea (Kospi)
BSE Sector
% Change
Last Close
WTD
YTD
10,369
(3.6)
(0.0)
10,611
(3.5)
(4.3)
Auto
16,983
(5.7)
(8.8)
Bankex
18,443
(6.4)
(14.1)
Capital Goods
15,440
(5.4)
(0.0)
Power
1,733
(7.0)
(17.2)
Realty
1,241
(2.9)
(20.2)
Technology
5,989
(2.0)
2.5
FMCG
7,599
(2.8)
(2.2)
Metal
7,117
(3.8)
(33.8)
Institutional Activity
Spot market
WTD
MTD
YTD
(31.9)
(26.4)
(29.0)
MF (Rs bn)
28.8
24.0
451.0
Tech Mahindra
2.5%
NA
BHEL
(12.1%)
Ambuja
Cements
2.4%
NA
M&M
(10%)
Cairn India
0.8%
NA
Commodities Update
% Change
Unit
NA
NA
SBI
(9.6%)
Hindalco
(9.5%)
PNB
(8.7%)
Power Grid
(8.5%)
Axis Bank
(7.9%)
WTD
YTD
Crude Oil(Brent)**
$/Bbl
50
0.5
(12.2)
Gold(OTC)**
$/Oz
1,125
(0.8)
(5.1)
Silver(OTC)**
$/Oz
15
0.7
(6.3)
Copper(LME)**
$/MT
5,264
2.3
(17.3)
Aluminum(LME)**
$/MT
1,610
1.4
(11.8)
Sugar(LIFFE)**
$/MT
351
2.7
(10.4)
ZINC(LME)**
$/MT
1,811
0.1
(16.9)
Currency
INR/USD**
Icici Bank
(9.1%)
Close
USD/EURO**
USD/JPY**
% Change
Close
WTD
YTD
66.5
(0.5)
(5.2)
1.1
(0.4)
(7.9)
119.1
2.2
0.6
Source: NSE
Page No: 1
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
Domestic
International
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg
Page No: 2
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
Developed
US
UK
GERMANY
FRANCE
JAPAN
Index
Return
Technology
Basic
Materials
Financials
Telecom
Oil &
Gas
Health
Care
Consumer
Goods
Industrials Utilities
DOW
FTSE
DAX
CAC
NIKKEI
16375
6091
10120
4566
17792
-1.61
-2.51
-1.73
-2.34
-7.02
-0.98
2.19
-0.26
-0.73
0.39
-2.81
-0.91
-0.1
0.14
-2.29
-2.52
-1.53
0.05
-0.77
-2.52
-1.02
0.66
1.46
-0.74
-1.03
-1.59
0.97
-1.21
0.44
-1.05
---0.3
-3.97
-3.57
-5.41
-0.7
0.85
---3.14
-0.17
-3.85
1.41
-0.04
1.06
-1.86
-1.28
0.55
-1.77
-0.98
-0.17
BOVESPA
MICEX
NIFTY
SANGHAI
47366
1710
7655
3160
0.45
-0.55
-4.34
-2.23
------2.12
-2.39
9.06
----1.75
8.67
-4.23
----3.73
16.84
-1.14
----0.58
11.9
-0.09
----1.83
13.45
-1.69
----2.1
14.13
-0.34
----0.59
3.74
-------1.13
4.62
2.52
----1.83
5.19
HSI
KOSPI
STRAITS
TWSE
20841
1886
2864
8001
-3.57
-2.66
-3.12
-0.23
-0.9
1.8
---4.87
-2.46
0.21
---3.9
-1.66
-1.46
-2.26
1.17
1.54
2.17
-3.55
1.54
-1.19
2.2
2.22
6.17
-1.55
-3.08
---1.98
-1.12
0.69
-1.92
8.58
----0.38
---6.31
-1.15
1.35
-1.79
2.97
BRIC
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
INDIA
CHINA
Asian
HONG KONG
KOREA
SINGAPORE
TAIWAN
28.0
26.0
4.0
24.0
+2 SD
+2 SD
22.0
3.5
+1 SD
20.0
+1 SD
3.0
18.0
Mean: 2.5
Mean: 15.8
16.0
2.5
14.0
2.0
-1 SD
-1 SD
12.0
10.0
1.5
-2 SD
-2 SD
8.0
Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Feb-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Aug-14 Jun-15
1.0
Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Feb-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Aug-14 Jun-15
+
M
-
Page No: 3
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
PE CY14
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
PE CY15
PE FY14*
Japan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
EPS % C han ge
PE FY15*
2.5
5.0
2.0
4.0
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
(%)
3.0
0.0
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
P/BV CY14
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
P/BV CY15
PE FY14*
Japan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
PE FY15*
21%
19%
17%
15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
CY14
France
CAC
CY15
UK
FTSE
FY14*
Japan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
FY15*
Page No: 4
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
8.0
9.5
7.97
8.0
7.95
9.0
7.9
8.0
7.82
7.9
7.5
(%)
(%)
8.5
7.0
7.79
7.78
7.8
6.5
7.8
6.0
7.7
7.71
7.68
7.7
Jul-15
Feb-15
Apr-14
Sep-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Jan-13
Aug-12
Oct-11
Mar-12
Jun-11
Dec-10
Mar-10
Aug-10
May-09
Oct-09
7.71
5.5
7.6
3m
GIND5YR Index
6m
1Yr
5Yr
GIND10YR Index
3-Sep-15
3-Aug-15
12
11
11
10
10
9
(%)
8
7
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
(%)
CD 6month
CP 3month
CD 12month
CP 6month
CP 12 month
Page No: 5
Jul/15
Jan/15
Jun/14
Dec/13
May/13
Nov/12
Apr/12
Oct/11
Sep/10
Mar/10
Aug/09
Feb/09
Jul/15
Jan/15
Jul/14
Jan/14
Jul/13
Jan/13
Jul/12
Jan/12
Jul/11
Jan/11
Jul/10
Jan/10
Jul/09
Jan/09
(%)
CD 3month
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
Apr/11
(%)
13.5
11.5
9.5
7.5
5.5
3.5
1.5
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
(2)
3
0
(4)
1
(4)
10
(1)
Jun-15
3
2
(4)
-3
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
(10)
Jun-14
179
Jun-15
180
May-15
179
Apr-15
198
Mar-15
181
Feb-15
189
Jan-15
186
Dec-14
172
Nov-14
165
Oct-14
172
Sep-14
166
Aug-14
173
Jul-14
172
Jun-14
250
200
150
100
50
0
15
10
5
(5)
(10)
(15)
May-15
% D in Industrial Production
6
3
(3)
(6)
Consumer Durables
% D in Consumer Durables Index
5
-11
-4
(2)
(3)
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
(21)
Oct-14
Sep-14
-5
-15
-35
Aug-14
(19)
-15
Dec-14
-20
(1)
-6
-9
Nov-14
-23
-4
(1)
Jul-14
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
100
Jun-14
200
16
19
10
Jun-14
246
253
259
261
251
247
208
202
192
242
219
221
300
212
400
25
20
15
10
5
(5)
(10)
(15)
(20)
(25)
Feb-15
25
15
5
-5
-15
-25
-35
-45
(1)
(3)
(0)
(9)
1
(5)
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
(12)
Feb-15
(4)
Dec-14
Sep-14
(9)
Jan-15
Oct-14
(1)
14
5
0
Nov-14
Aug-14
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
50
11
24
5
Jul-14
100
30
20
10
(10)
(20)
Jun-14
151
151
159
180
179
185
186
151
145
132
150
138
152
200
149
12
9
6
3
(3)
(6)
Capital Goods
30
23
(3)
7
(8)
(6)
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
(16)
Aug-14
9
5
(3)
(24)
(7)
(4)
Jun-15
18
(10)
12
Apr-15
(3)
12
6
May-15
19
Mar-15
12
Jul-14
45
30
15
(15)
(30)
Jun-14
Jun-15
232
May-15
251
Apr-15
261
330
Mar-15
255
Feb-15
271
Jan-15
270
Dec-14
252
Nov-14
239
Oct-14
Sep-14
261
221
Aug-14
263
Jul-14
Jun-14
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
271
Page No: 6
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
Outlook
Indian equity markets witnessed severe carnage during the week with Sensex falling by 4.5% WTD. Fear of moderation in China and
global economic growth, redemption pressure in emerging funds have led to huge FII outflows (~Rs 200 bn in past 1 month) from our
markets. Government has issued circular to exempt FII from MAT but its positive impact was absorbed by FIIs to offload shares. The
banking sector was the major culprit as Bankex declined by 6.4% WTD. The banking stocks were under pressure as i) HDFC Bank slashed
its Base rate by 35 bps to 9.35% which has intensified competition, ii) RBI may soon issue guidelines for banks to calculate base rate by
marginal cost of funding and iii) expectation of interest rate hike by Fed.
Going ahead, we believe the non-farm payroll data will be a very crucial factor which shall set the direction of equity markets. Depending
on this data which shall be announced today, the market may built in expectations related to Fed interest rate hike accordingly. Fed policy
is scheduled on September 16 and 17th. Progress of monsoon and updates on special session of Parliament for passage of GST bill will
be key monitorables. We believe Indian economy is well-placed with falling crude & other commodity prices, low inflation, low twin deficit
and reasonably good GDP growth. Overall, fragile global economy and pressure of FII outflow shall keep Indian markets volatil e in short
term. However, we remain bullish on the medium term outlook of Indian stock markets and recommend investors shall accumulate the
quality stocks on this correction. Companies delivering steady PAT growth trajectory shall be most preferred.
Event Calendar
Economy
Domestic:
Global:
UK:
US:
Germany
June (Prior282 K)
1.50%)
Continuing Claims
June (Prior2257K)
, prior 0.20%)
China
CPI YOY Aug (exp 1.60%
, prior 1.90%)
PPI YOY Aug (Exp 5.60%, Prior -.5.40%)
France
Industrial Production YoY
Jul ( Prior 0.60%)
Source: Bloomberg
Page No: 7
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
Research Team
Vivek Mahajan
Hemant Thukral
Head of Research
022-61802820
022-61802870
vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com
hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com
Fundamental Team
Sunny Agrawal
FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps
022-61802831
sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com
Shreyans Mehta
Construction/Real Estate
022-61802829
shreyans.m@adityabirla.com
Jaymin Trivedi
022-61802833
jaymin.trivedi@adityabirla.com
Naveen Baid
IT
022-61325250
naveen.baid@adityabirla.com
Sudeep Shah
Sr.Technical Analyst
022-61802837
sudeep.shah@adityabirla.com
Rahil Vora
Technical Analyst
022-61802834
rahil.vora@adityabirla.com
Ammolh Paatil
022-61325226
ammolh.paatil@adityabirla.com
Soni Patnaik
Derivative Analyst
022-61802832
soni.patnaik@adityabirla.com
Avinash Nahata
022-61802824
avinash.nahata@adityabirla.com
Suresh Gardas
Advisory Desk
022-61207619
suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com
Salim Hajiani
Advisory Desk
022-61207618
salim.hajiani@adityabirla.com
Pradeep Parkar
Advisory Desk
022-61207625
pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com
Mohan Jaiswal
022-61802838
mohan.jaiswal@adityabirla.com
Quantitative Team
Advisory Support
Page No: 8
Money Weekly
04 September 2015
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Page No: 9