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Early Evening Market Review for Monday
Oil prices opened lower on Monday, and they ultimately ended well lower
on Monday, as traders continued to sell oil. Equities started the day lower,
as well, as selling from Friday held over. But, while oil could not raise itself,
equities were able to advance from their early lows to finish the day with
gains. The stock market proved, as it has before, that lawsuits and courts are
no match for profits, and Monday’s gains in equities came as the result of
very strong (better than expected) first quarter profits from Citigroup. After
testing levels beneath 11,000 early on Monday, the DJIA finished the day at
11,092.05, up 73.39 points. That took away one source of selling in oil, but it
could not negate the other one, which came from the ongoing Icelandic
volcano‐related grounding of trans‐Atlantic air travel. While jet fuel is hardly one of the glamour
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[DAILY ENERGY HEDGER ‐ PREVIEW ] April 19, 2010
products processed from crude oil, it does account for 7.37% of the refined barrel. That is enough to
make a difference in this market.
The US dollar also had a topsy‐turvy day yesterday, in sympathy with equities. The dollar started the
day looking strong, printing what later became the day’s highs. By the final bell, though, the greenback
had declined to the day’s lows.
The fact that oil prices could not get off the mat, while equities and currencies could, was a potentially
bearish sign. The fact that precious metals were mixed on the day only confuses the issue more. By the
end of the day, wire services were talking about the probability of similar charges {as those lodged
against Goldman Sachs on Friday} in their oil stories. At the very same time, though, equities observers
were talking about the ability of strong quarterly profits to eclipse legal problems.
The Icelandic eruption has dumped millions of tons of volcanic ash across Europe, and it has grounded
airplanes since Thursday. Dow Jones estimates that flight restrictions have cut global jet fuel
consumption by 1 million barrels a day, which is substantial. This is clearly bearish, but we have our
doubts about the duration of this problem. In addition, it is jet fuel, which is a market that has a very
limited ability to affect the “glamour” products – diesel (and heating oil) and gasoline.
The market’s determination on Monday to follow a fundamental factor – in the midst of major
intraday turns in equities and currencies – underlines the importance of this week’s API and DOE
reports. Prices have followed fundamental factors more in the last nine or ten days than they had over
the course of weeks or months before this. It is interesting that the Goldman event is still seen as
casting a bearish shadow over oil, while its specter has dissipated over other markets, at least in
Monday’s trading. But, no matter which way one cuts it, Monday was a bearish day for oil.
As we were winding this down, CNBC announced that there could be another volcanic eruption in
Iceland, which would add to the bearish load this market is carrying.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
**Note: Full version to be released tomorrow morning**
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