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010 Class 13

Populations and Samples

called samples.

Random trial i yields an outcome (a particular number) corresponding to

an underlying random variable xi. The collection of random variables

associated with a sample of N observations is [x1, x2, x3, …, xN].

random variables or to make inferences about relationships among

different variables.

of (which may actually exist or may be hypothesized).

Example:

random from the population of all MIT students. Suppose we record the

heights of 10 MIT students selected at random. This can be viewed as a

composite experiment composed of 10 repeated trials with 10

corresponding random heights [x1, x2, x3, …, x10]. The outcomes obtained

from this set of trials constitute a sample.

The 10 student sample can be used to estimate the unknown mean and

variance (or other properties) of the height probability distribution or to

make inferences about this distribution (e.g. to compare it to a similar

distribution from Stanford).

[56.25, 59.90, 54.64, 65.73, 56.45, 57.45, 61.26, 57.23, 56.61, 53.67]

What are reasonable estimates of the mean and variance of the student

height probability distribution?

Random samples:

1

1. The xi's are independent Fx1, x2, ... xN = Fx1(x1)Fx2(x1)...FxN(xN)

2. The xi's all have the same distribution Fxi(xi) = Fx(x)

variable with CDF Fy(y).

If [x1, x2, ... xN ] is a random sample Fy(y) can be derived from g(x1, x2, ... xN)

and Fx(x). In general, this derived distribution problem can be solved with

stochastic simulation.

and a1, a2 , b are constants (not random):

Example:

arithmetic average (sample mean) mx of N observations drawn at random from

this distribution.

If the observations are outcomes associated with a random sample x1, x2, ... xN

the sample mean is:

N

1

mx =

N ∑ xi

i =1

This is a linear function of the random sample. The mean and variance of

mx are (prove):

E[m x ] = E[ x ] = x

1

Var[m x ] = Var[ x ]

N

2

A reasonable estimate of the standard deviation of the unknown distribution is

the mean sum of squares (sample variance) sx2 computed from the random

sample:

N

1

s x2 =

N −1 ∑[ x

i =1

i − m x ]2

This is a linear function of the set of variables [xi – mx]2., i = 1…N. The

mean and variance of sx2 are:

E[ s 2x ] = σ x2

1

Var[ s 2x ] ∝

N

Last modified Oct. 8, 2003

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