\

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

R
EE E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
07 MAR 11 MAR 2016

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold vaulted more than 5 percent on Thursday to a one-year high, on track for its
biggest daily jump in more than seven years as financial uncertainty, a lower dollar
and tumbling stock prices around the world prompted investors to seek refuge in
bullion. Volume of the most-active U.S. gold futures contract surged to the highest
since late-2014 as investors poured into the market. Traders cited fears of financial
instability and slumping bank shares on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors grew
more worried about banks' profitability in a low-growth and low-interest rate
environment.
The rally extended after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, during her biannual
testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, said she will not take the
consideration of negative rates off the table. The Fed eventually raised rates in
December for the first time in nearly a decade, but expectations about the pace of
U.S. rate rises and the magnitude have been scaled back. This has been reinforced by
Yellen saying tighter credit markets, volatile financial markets, and uncertainty over
Chinese economic growth had raised risks to the U.S. economy.
Crude futures rose above $35 a barrel for the first time in two months Friday, buoyed
by renewed optimism that prices may have bottomed out after data showed U.S.
production at its lowest level since November 2014. The international crude
benchmark Brent is set to end the week with a gain of more than 5 percent at just
under $37 a barrel, meanwhile. U.S. crude inventories rose to a new record of 517.98
million barrels last week, but output fell for a sixth straight week to 9.08 million
barrels a day, according to data from the U.S. governments Energy Information
Administration.
That came on the same day that Russias energy minister Alexander Novak said that a
critical mass of oil producing nations had agreed to freeze their output at current
levels. Together with the drop in U.S. output, that action could ease the glut on world
markets. Further cuts in U.S. output are possible in the coming months. The tight
credit market will make it difficult for U.S. shale producers to refinance upcoming
debt and we may see an accelerated decline in U.S. oil production in 2016-17.
Stockpiles of refined copper in Shanghai extended their advance to a record as the
difference between domestic and foreign prices encouraged imports by China, the
worlds biggest consumer. Inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are
higher than stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange for the first time in a
more than a decade. Inventories followed by the Shanghai bourse jumped 11 percent
this week to a record 305,106 metric tons, equivalent to around two weeks of
consumption in China. Reserves in London have declined for 11 days to the lowest
level in more than a year.
Copper has gained 4 percent this year in London amid a surge in metals prices on
expectations that China may introduce a new round of stimulus to bolster the slowing
economy. The metal for three-month delivery rose as much as 1.6 percent to $4,933 a
metric ton Friday, heading for an increase of around 4 percent this week, the best
such performance since September. Investors will be looking for any signs of stimulus
that could boost residential construction, a large consumer of copper. Dampened
worries about a Fed hike sent the dollar index to a two-week low, making metals
priced in the US currency cheaper for buyers outside the US.

Gold surges to
one year high on
financial
uncertainty.

Crude Oil Prices

Hit 2-Month High
as U.S. Output
Falls Again.

Copper Stockpiles
in China Surge to
Record as Metal
Flows East.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

Mar 7 8:30pm

Labor Market Conditions Index m/m

11:30pm

FORECAST

PREVIOUS
0.4

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

11:30pm

FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

Mar 8 1:30am

Consumer Credit m/m

16.8B

21.3B

4:30pm

NFIB Small Business Index

94.5

93.9

Mar 9 8:30pm

Wholesale Inventories m/m

-0.2%

-0.1%

9:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

10.4M

11:31pm

10-y Bond Auction

1.73/2.6

Mar 10 7:00pm

Unemployment Claims

9:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

-48B

11:31pm

30-y Bond Auction

2.50/2.1

Mar 11 12:30am

Federal Budget Balance

-198.3B

55.2B

7:00pm

Import Prices m/m

-0.7%

-1.1%

272K

278K

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed sideways to bullish
movement as it found resistance of
50% retracement and closed around
29765. Now, if it continues this bull
rally on higher side then it may find
next strong resistance of 31000 and on
lower side if correction happens then
28500 will act as major support level.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 30100 for the target of 31000,
with stop loss of 28900.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

29390

28880

28350

30100

30740

31500

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed
sideways movement except in last two
trading sessions it continues bull rally
and closed above its important
resistance level of 37500. Now, for
upcoming sessions 38100 will act as
resistance for it, if it maintain above it
then may find strong resistance of
39500. On the other hand 36500 will
act as vital support.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 38500 for
the target of 40000, with stop loss of
36500.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

36730

35900

35100

38300

39150

40050

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed sideways
movement in whole week except in
last trading session it showed strong
movement and made a high of 2417
and closed around it. Now, 2500 is act
as vital resistance for it above which it
may find next resistance near around
2650. On lower side 2250 will act as
major support level below which it
may again drag towards the support
level of 2100.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
buy above 2450 for the target of 2600,
with stop loss of 2250.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2280

2115

1970

2500

2640

2820

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bullish
movement and after gave a breakout
of inverse head and shoulder pattern
it closed around 38.2% retracement
level. Now 345 will act as immediate
resistance level for it above this 356 is
next resistance level. On the other
hand sustaining below 330 again drag
it towards major support level of 322.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 345, with stop loss of 330 for the
target of 356.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

331.50

322.50

313.20

343.75

352.10

361.10

DISCLAIMER

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM