Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Policy,Planning,and ReseLrch
WORKING PAPERS
Macroeconomic
Adjustment
andGrowth
CountryEconomicsDepartment
The WorldBank
December1989
WPS339
PrivateInvestment
and Macroeconomic
Adjustment
An Overview
Luis Serven
and
AndresSolimano
Plc,Planning,and Research
Maroeconomic
Adjustment
andGrowth
* A high research priority should be theidCvelopment of models suitable for the empirical
study of irreversible investment under uncertainty, a relevant issue for understanding the
lack of investment response to incentives undec
unstable macroeconomic conditions. More work
is also needed on the investment consequences
of policy credibility, and the policy implicatinns
of the link bctwecn credibility and sustainabilily.
The PPR Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work under way in thc Bank's Policy, Planning, and Rcsea;rch
Complex. An objectivc of the series is to get thesc fmdings out quickly, even if prcsentations are Iess than fully polishie(l.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily reprcsent official policy of the Bank.
Produced at the PPR DisseminationCenter
Table of Contents
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.
Introduction.
2.
3.
10
13
3.1.
3.2.
4.
The
..
uncertaintyand irreversibility
5.
..
4s1
4.2
.
The role of credibility
4.3
Empirical applications
Concluding Remarks..
REFERENCES
credibility,
.21
. . . . . . . .
22
27
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
...............
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
36
38
1.
Introduction
The correctionof
during the eightieshas taken the form of major cuts in investmentrates rather
than increasesin domesticsavings.This investmentdecline,which mirrors the
decline in the externalresourcetransfersince 1982, has been especiallysharp
in the highly indebted countries,and has been accompaniedby a slowdown in
growth in all LDC's.
although the latter more drastically than the former. If this trend is
maintained, it will lead to a slowdown in medium term growth possibilitiesin
these economiesand will reduce the levels of long run per capita consumption
and income, endangeringthe sustainabilityof the adjustmenteffort.
The observedreductionin investmentin LDC 's seems to be the result
of several factors. First, the lower availabilityof foveign savings has not
been matched by a correspondingincrease in domestic savings. Second, the
deteriorationof fiscal conditionsdue to the cut in foreign lending.to the
rise in domestic interestrates, and to the accelerationin inflationforced a
contraction
ir
public
investment. Third,
the
increase
in
macroeconomic
Q,
Disequilibrium, Two-Gap
and
2.
These overly restrictiveassumptionsled Jorgenson (1967) and HallJorgenson (1971), among others, to formulate the Neoclassical approach to
investment. This approachintroducesfactor substitutionin the derivationof
the demand for capital from the firm's cost minimization (or profit
maximization)problem. The desired capital stock is shown to depend on the
rental cost of capital (which in turn dependson the price of capital goods, the
real interestrate and the depreciationrate) and the levelof output. Decision
and delivery lags (or implicitlyadjustmentcosts) create a gap between the
current and desired capital stocks, giving rise to an investment equation,
namely an equation for the change in the capital stock.
This approach, in turn, has been subject to several criticisms
regarding the consistency, and plausibility,of its assumptions: (i) the
assumptions of
matters for investmentis marginal Q, i.e., the ratio between the increasein
domestic capital markets. This may be the case because of the existence of
controlledinterestrates and also becausecredit rationingmay be a featureof
the equilibrium in the loan market, as demonstratedby Stiglitz an,dWeiss
(1981). Asymmetric information,adverse selection and incentive effects may
make interestrite changesan inefficientdevice to sort out good borrowersfrom
bad borrowers.
quality of
firms, investment
opportunities,thus making the cost of new debt and equity differ substantially
from the opportunitycost of internalfinance generatedthrough cash flow and
retainedearnings. According to this view, investmentwill be very sensitive
to financialfactors such as the availabilityof internalfinanceor the access
to capital markets. This new strand is clearly a departure from the perfect
capitalmarket approachwere the financialstructureof the firm is irrelevant
for investmentdecisions;in this new setting :iemarket value of a firm is not
independentof its financialstructure.
Empiricalresearchalong these lines has been undertakenfor the U.S.
by Fazzari,Hubbard and Petersen (1988a). They test the role of the financial
structure of the firm in the Q,
3.
10
and!or the current account deficit may affect investmentthrough two "price'
channels. One is the rise in the real cost of bank credit, a major source of
investmentfinancingin LDC's. The second is the increasein the opportunity
11
12
- 13
3.2.
- 14 -
goods have an import content then a devaluation raises the supply (or
reposition)price of capital in terms of home goods; ceteris paribus, this
effect terndsto depress investmentin the home goods sector. An empirical
confirmationof the presumptionthat a real depreciationreduce investment(in
the short run)
investmentin Mexico.
In these models, investmentis treated as a compositegood produced
by combining domestic (i.e., construction or infrastructure)and foreign
components (i.e., machinery and equipment).
In this setting, a
teal
15 -
- 16 -
- 17 -
18
19
the
costs of
on
the
v)
The
- 20 -
The
imperfectsubstitutability
21 -
4.
credibility,
and thus
adjustmenteffort, since in the absence of an investmentexpansion the shortrun deflationaryconsequencesof the expenditure-restraining
measures may be
magnified,leading to a persistentreductionin growth. In this way, the lack
of an adequate investment response in the tradable sector to the change in
economicincentivesincreasesthe cost of the adjustmentin terms of employment
and growth; ultimately, it may render the stabilization effort socially
unacceptableand thus unsustainable.
Thereforeit is essentialto improveour understaniingof the reasons
that underliethis slow reactionof investment,in order to improveour ability
to design sustainable adjustmentpolicies. In the theoretical framework of
symmetric convex adjustment costs to investment, this inertia could be
explainedby a combinationof high adjustmentcosts with sluggishexpectations
on the part of investors. However, the assumption that firms face rapidly
increasing marginal costs to capacity expansion appears questionable on
- 22
4.1
1
Irreversibility,
uncertainty,and investment
- 23
might affect the desirabilityor timing of the investment. Thus, the lost
value of this option must be consideredas part of the opportunitycost of
investment--
- 24
Similarly,
Caballero and Corbo (1988) show that uncertaintyover future real exchange
ra.es can depress exports. Dornbusch (1988) examines the related issue of
capital flight reversalfollowinga real depreciation;he argues that in order
to attract the previouslyevaded capital to irreversiblefixed investment,an
25
- 26 -
- 27
4.2
- 28
two
setting the
required
29 -
Social
In both cases
expectationsmay be self-fulfilling,
which reflectsthe possibilityof multiple
equilibria in this framework --
play an
important role by
the
- 30 -
4.3
Empiricalapplications
The empirical literatureon uncertainty and irreversibilitystill
31
32 -
Chart 1
Macroeconomic
Medium Term
Policies
_ *
initial
disequilibrium
Adjustment
~~*_
*______
Macro
Stability
Policies:
Exchange rate
Demand Management
Sustained
Growth
Incentivestructure
credibility
Private Investment
EconomicGrowth
- 33
Chart 2
transmission
mechanism
I
real interest
rate
market value
of capital
policy
1. monetary
contraction
reposition
price of
capital
demand
levels
+/-
+/_
real credit
availability
2. fiscal
adjustment
i) spending
+/-
reduction
ii) tax
increase
3. devaluation
+/_
+l
34 -
Chart 3
Liquid assets
Uncertainty
Cav'italFlight
Irreversible
capital
Postponement of
Investment
- 35 -
Chart 4
Effects on Private Investmentoft
(EmpiricalStudies)
Real depreciation
of the exchanSe rate
(short run)
Increasein
Increase in
capacityutilization public
investment
Blejer and
Khan (1984)
Positivefor
public investment in
infrastructure
Balassa
(1988)
Negative
Musalem
(1989)
Solimano
(1989)
Negative
Negative
Positive
Positive
Positive
- 36 5.
ConcludingRemarks
In this paper we have reviewed the linkages between macroeconomic
- 37 -
38
REFERENCES
- 39
Directions," N.B.E.R.
_______
Paper 2790.
(1989): "From Stabilization to Growth", mimeo, MIT.
Easterly, W. (1989): "Portfolio Effects in a CGE Model: Devaluation in a
DollarizedEconomy" in L. Taylor (ED.), StructuralistComputableGeneral
EquilibriumModels: SociallyRelevantPolicy Analysis for The Third World
The MIT Press (Forthcoming).
Edwards, S. (1988): "Stabilization, Macroeconomic Policy and
Liberalization,"
mimeo.
Trade
Capital Accumuilation,"
in G. Frommm, ed. Tax Incentives and Capital
Spending,The BrookingsInstitution,Washington,D.C.
Hayashi, F. (1982): 'Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A
Interpretation,"Econometrica,Vol. 50, 1.
Neoclassical
- 40 -
Devaluationin Developing
Lizondo,J.S. and P.Montiel (1989): "Contractionary
Countries:An AnalyticalOverview,"I.M.F. Staff Papers.
MacKie-Mason,J. (1989): "Do Firms Care Who Provides Their Financing'"mimeo
Universityof Michigan.
Majd, S. and R. Pindyck (1987): "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment
Decisions,"Journal of FinancialEconomics 18, pp. 7-27.
Malinvaud, E. (1980): Profitabilityand Unemployment,Cambridge University
Press.
(1982): "Wages and Unemployment,"
Economic
41 -
_______
- 42 -
Financially
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Author
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for paper
F.T. Sai
K Newman
December1989
S. Ainsworth
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RodolfoA. Bulatao
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PatienceW. Stephens
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RodolfoA. Bulatao
EduardBos
PatienceW. Stephens
My T. Vu
November1989
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31091
AshokGulhati
iwl
Author
WPS335 MacroeconomicAdjustmentand
Labor MarketStructurein Four
Latin AmericanCountries:An
EconometricStudy
RamonE. Lopez
LuisA. Riveros
WPS336 ComplementaryApproachesto
FinancingHealthServicesin
Africa
GermanoMwabu
RodolfoA. Bulatao
EduardBos
S. D. Foster
Luis Serven
AndresSolimano
DbWror
Contact
pager
December1989
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