POPULATION

ESTIMATION AND
PROJECTIONS
LAB EXERCISE
ASSIGNMENT ONE

1. Population estimates of Physics and Chemistry at 7th November 2016 using geometric
and exponential growth laws.
Geometric growth law - Pt = Po (1 + r )
and for the exponential growth rate,
Pt = PO ern

The rate of population growth is calculated before the population can be estimated.
P

For geometric growth rate log (1+r) =

logP t

n
P

And for exponential growth rate (r) =

InP t

Where, Pt population at current time/ been estimated for

Po Current population
r Rate of population growth
n intercensal years
intersensal years for country physics between 22nd May 2001 and 10th March 2011
=9+

9+30+31+31+30+31+30+31+31+28+10
365

Geometric growth rate for Physics

= 9+0.8 = 9.8 years

log

Log (1+r) =

28412571
21560217

9.8

0.1198574064
9.8

Log (1+r) = 0.01223034759

Taking antilog of both sides
(1+r) = antilog (0.01223034759)
(1+r) = 1.028561697
= 0.28561697
r = 2.8561697%
Hence, the population is growing at a rate of 2.8% per annum.
Intercensal years between 21st June 2002 and 18th September 2013 =

11 +

9+31+31+18
365

= 9+ 0.243836 = 11.243836 years

Geometric growth rate for Chemistry

32326819
27409991

log
Log (1+r) =

11.243836

Log (1+r) = 0.006372743132

Taking antilog of both sides
(1+r)= antilog 0.6372743132

0.07165407865
11.243836

(1+r) = 1.014781972
= 0.014781972
r = 1.4781972%
Hence the population is growing at a rate of 1.4% per annum.
Exponential growth rate
For Physics
28412571
21560217

In

r=

9.8

0.2759818772
9.8

r = 0.0281614604
r = 2.816141604%
Hence the population is growing at a constant rate of 2.8%
For Chemistry
32326819

r=

In27409991
11.243836

0.1649896133
11.243836

r = 0.01467378334
r = 1.467378334%
Hence the population is growing at a constant rate of 1.4%
Population projection for country Physics at 7th November 2016, using 10th March 2011 as
the base year.

But, n= 5 +

21+30+31+30+31+31+30+31+7
365

=5+

242
365

= 5.6630136986 years
Projected population using geometric growth for country Physics at 7th November 2016
Pt = 28412571 (1 + 0.028561697)5.6630136986
= 28412571(1.172899024)
= 33325076.81
Hence, the estimated population of country Physics at 7th November 2016 is 33325077 using
the geometric growth rate of 2.8%.
Projected population using exponential growth for country Physics at 7th November 2016
Pt = 28412571 e(0.028161416045.6630136986)

28412571(1.172899027)

= 33325076.87
Hence, the estimated population of country Physics at 7th November 2016 is 33325077 using
the exponential growth rate of 2.8%.
Population projection for country Chemistry at 7th November 2016, using 18th September
2011 as the base year.

But, n= 3 +

12+31+7
365

= 3+

50
365

= 3.136986301 years

Projected population using geometric growth for country Chemistry at 7th November 2016
Pt = 32326819 (1 + 0.01478197183)3.1369386301
32326819(1.047106617) = 33849654.28
Hence, the estimated population of country Physics at 7th November 2016 is 33849654 using
the exponential growth rate of 1.4%.

Projected population using exponential growth for country Chemistry at 7th November 2016
Pt = 32326819 e(0.014781971833.0169386301)
32326819(1.047107351) = 33849649.82
Hence, the estimated population of country Physics at 7th November 2016 is 33849650 using
the exponential growth rate of 1.4%.

2. The biggest limitation of the exponential and geometric growth laws is that it cannot
be used for a rapidly growing population and it does not show the component in
which the population is changing.