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FORECAST &
REVIEW
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A MUST-ATTEND EVENT!
2016 AFPM
ANNUAL MEETING
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2016
AFPM
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CONTENTS
Jan. 4, 2016 Volume 114.1
FIG. 1
97
3.5
96
Nick Snow
36
OECD
3.0
China
2.5
95
2.0
Million b/d
Demand
Million b/d
GENERAL INTEREST
Supply
94
93
1.5
1.0
0.5
92
0.0
91
-0.5
90
22
-1.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
Nick Snow
33
Matt Zborowski
37
33
Meridian Energy
Group plans refinery
for North Dakota
Paula Dittrick
Robert Brelsford
Nick Snow
Robert Brelsford
34
38
34
SPECIAL REPORT
FORECAST & REVIEW
22
38
35
40
Nick Snow
36
40
REGULAR FEATURES
COVER
One of BPs most prolific producers in the Gulf of
Mexico, the Na Kika platform is a hub for 8 subsea fields, with more than 100 miles of infield
flowlines which make up the gathering system.
It is designed to process up to 130,000 b/d of
oil and 550 MMcfd of natural gas. OGJs annual
Forecast & Review, starting on p. 22, looks at
whats to come in supply and demand for oil
and gas in 2016 and examines what took place
in the market during 2015. Photo from BP.
160104OGJ_2 2
OG&PE
P1
NEWSLETTER 8
LETTERS/CALENDAR 16
JOURNALLY SPEAKING 18
EDITORIAL 20
SERVICES/SUPPLIERS 91
STATISTICS 93
MARKET CONNECTION 96
ADVERTISERS INDEX 99
EDITORS PERSPECTIVE/
WATCHING GOVERNMENT 100
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A tl an t i c Oc e a n
20
m
Sho
re li
Demerara
Rise
ne
Liza-1
Extraction,
froth treatment
plant
Sour gas
Fluid coker,
three units
Diluent,
whole
Diluent
bitumen
Coke
Diluent recovery,
three units
Atmospheric
topped Vacuum
bitumen
LGO
LC-Finer,
one unit
Syncrude
Sweet
Premium
H2
Vacuum
topped
bitumen
42
Sulfur
H2
Bottoms
Vacuum
distillation,
one unit
Crystalline basement
Amine,
sulfur
plants
H2
Virgin LGO
GMES-1
Sedimentary blanket
Naphtha
hydrotreater,
two units
FIG. 1
Natural gas
68
Hydrogen plant,
four units
TECHNOLOGY...
PROCESSING
TRANSPORTATION
Feed-monitoring
strategy improves
hydrotreater reliability
Xiuyu Wang
Shenglai Yang
Yu Pu
Feng Zhou
Ye Zhang
Jason Wiens
Craig McKnight
Andre Taguinod
Wayne Schiewe
Kun Huang
Jiali Wu
Hongfang Lu
Yi Jiang
Liangxue Cai
Yannis Bassias
42
68
52
Lei Huang
Zongyang Dai
Zheng Li
Ren Luo
Lingping Zeng
76
Nelson-Farrar
monthly cost indexes
Gary Farrar
70
Kevin P. McCoy
60
46
Abdelhafid Benyounes
Ahmed Hafaifa
Guemana Mouloud
NELSON-FARRAR
QUARTERLY
COSTIMATING:
Yearly refinery
construction indexes
listed for 85+ years
FIG. 1
84
Gary Farrar
74
Pressure gauge
Core holder
3D SOIL MODEL
FIG. 1
Valve
Tube
Confining-pressure
pump
y
z
52
160104OGJ_4 4
a-z01
Oil container
76
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INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
EXHIBITION
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WELDED METAL
BELLOWS
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In Houston
Publisher Jim Klingele, jimk@pennwell.com
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Oil & Gas Journal (ISSN 0030-1388). Oil & Gas Journal is published 12x per year - monthly the first Monday of each month in print and other Mondays
in digital form by PennWell Corporation, 1421 S. Sheridan Rd., Tulsa, OK 74112. Periodicals postage paid at Tulsa, OK 74112 and at additional
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7C9. Oil & Gas Journal and OGJ is a registered trademark. PennWell Corporation 2016. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without
permission is prohibited. Permission, however, is granted for employees of corporations licensed under the Annual Authorization Service offered by the
Copyright Clearance Center Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, Mass. 01923, or by calling CCCs Customer Relations Department at 978-7508400 prior to copying. We make portions of our subscriber list available to carefully screened companies that offer products and services that may be
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Local service,
global neighbor
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OGJ
Newsletter
Jan. 4, 2016
International News
for oil and gas professionals
GENERAL INTEREST Q U IC K TA K E S
BPs US Lower 48 unit buys Devons New Mexico assets
BP PLCs newly separated US Lower 48 onshore business has
acquired all of the New Mexico assets belonging to Devon Energy Corp., Oklahoma City. A purchase price was not disclosed.
The move significantly expands BPs operations in the
San Juan basin spanning northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado, and marks the first major acquisition by its Lower 48
business in more than 7 years, the company reported.
The bulk of the acquired assets consist of Devons operated
interest in the Northeast Blanco unit, a section of federal lands
in San Juan and Rio Arriba counties of New Mexico, where BP
has had a presence since the 1920s.
The company anticipates taking over operations of the units
480 wells spread across 33,000 gross acres in first-quarter 2016
after receiving required government agency approvals. In the
San Juan basin, the company holds more than 550,000 net
acres and has net production of 100,000 boe/d.
In early 2015, BP began operating its Lower 48 onshore
operations as a separate business (OGJ Online, Mar. 4, 2014),
which is led by David Lawler (OGJ Online, Aug. 20, 2014).
BP says the unit has begun to demonstrate higher capital
efficiency and lower operating costs. The unit has a material
resource base of 7.5 billion bbl across 5.7 million net acres, with
net production of 290,000 boe/d.
Devon this month agreed to acquire 80,000 net surface acres
in the Anadarko basin STACK play from Felix Energy LLC, a
Denver-based portfolio company of EnCap Investments, for
$1.9 billion (OGJ Online, Dec. 7, 2015). In a second deal, Devon
agreed to acquire 253,000 net acres in the Powder River basin
for $600 million.
It said the deals will be funded with $1.35 billion of Devon
equity issued to sellers and $1.15 billion of cash on hand and
borrowings.
160104OGJ_8 8
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Dec. 23
Dec. 24
Dec. 251
Dec. 281
Motor gasoline
Distillate
Jet fuel
Residual
Other products
Dec. 291
Crude production
NGL production2
Crude imports
Product imports
Other supply2 3
TOTAL SUPPLY
Net product imports
YTD avg.
year ago1
Change,
%
9,277
3,608
1,613
270
5,272
20,040
9,216
3,896
1,568
309
5,208
20,197
0.7
(7.4)
2.9
(12.6)
1.2
(0.8)
9,151
3,901
1,574
204
4,881
19,711
8,852
3,852
1,499
237
4,750
19,190
3.4
1.3
5.0
(13.9)
2.8
2.7
9,180
3,337
7,852
1,861
2,068
24,298
(2,215)
9,116
3,116
7,592
2,019
2,410
24,253
(1,377)
0.7
7.1
3.4
(7.8)
(14.2)
0.2
9,316
3,192
7,341
2,008
2,342
24,199
(1,733)
8,538
2,850
7,407
1,768
2,274
22,837
(1,653)
9.1
12.0
(0.9)
13.6
3.0
6.0
16,634
16,785
92.7
16,485
16,614
93.4
0.9
1.0
16,099
16,380
91.4
15,848
16,142
90.4
1.6
1.5
Dec. 24
Dec. 251
Dec. 281
Dec. 291
Latest
week
Previous
week1
484,780
220,495
151,315
39,451
43,480
490,657
219,384
151,976
38,274
42,757
Same week
year ago1 Change
Change
Change,
%
Dec. 24
Dec. 251
Dec. 281
(5,877)
1,111
(661)
1,177
723
387,209
226,097
123,847
35,873
35,007
Change, %
97,571
(5,602)
27,468
3,578
8,473
25.2
(2.5)
22.2
10.0
24.2
Change, %
Dec. 291
Crude
Motor gasoline
Distillate
Propane
Futures prices5 12/25
YTD
average1
Change,
%
4 wk. avg.
year ago1
29.1
23.8
41.9
71.1
29.5
23.8
43.0
78.9
(1.4)
(2.6)
(9.9)
Change
23.6
24.5
31.8
59.3
36.62
1.95
36.27
1.81
0.3
0.1
55.79
3.63
23.3
(2.9)
31.8
19.9
Change Change,%
(19.17)
(1.68)
(34.4)
(46.2)
Based on revised figures. 2OGJ estimates. 3Includes other liquids, refinery processing gain, and unaccounted for crude oil. 4Stocks
divided by average daily product supplied for the prior 4 weeks. 5Weekly average of daily closing futures prices.
Source: Energy Information Administration, Wall Street Journal
Dec. 23
Dec. 24
Dec. 251
Dec. 281
Dec. 291
BAKER HUGHES INTERNATIONAL RIG COUNT: TOTAL WORLD / TOTAL ONSHORE / TOTAL OFFSHORE
Dec. 9
Dec. 10
Dec. 111
Dec. 141
3,600
3,300
3,000
2,700
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,500
600
300
0
2,047
1,757
290
Nov. 14
Dec. 151
Dec. 14
Jan. 15
Feb. 15
Mar. 15
Apr. 15
May 15
Jun. 15
July 15
Aug. 15
Sept. 15
Oct. 15
Nov. 15
1,840
1,700
1,400
1,100
850
700
650
450
1
Dec. 91
Dec. 141
Dec. 151
3Nonoxygenated
250
126
256
50
10/10/14 10/24/14
10/17/14
11/7/14
10/31/14
11/21/14
12/5/14
11/14/14 11/28/14
12/19/14
12/12/14
10/9/15
10/23/15
12/26/14 10/16/15
11/6/15
11/20/15
12/4/15
12/18/15
12/11/15
12/25/15
10
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Something Big is
Coming to Gas and
Flame Detection
160104ogj_11 11
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Sequa Petroleum NV, 100% owner of Tellus, cited the current market environment.
Sequa said the Gina Krog transaction with Total E&P Norge
AS is expected to close in early 2016. Tellus would gain 15% in
the Gina Krog unit (OGJ Online, Oct. 19, 2015).
Sequa said Tellus is evaluating a deal to acquire 0.554% interest in the Ivar Aasen field from OMV (Norge) AS in light of the
decision not to proceed with the Wintershall transaction.
12
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PROCESSING Q U IC K TA K E S
Western Refining, Northern Tier to merge
Western Refining Inc., El Paso, and Northern Tier Energy LP
have entered an agreement to merge Northern Tier into Western. Northern Tier owns a 97,800-b/sd, high-conversion refinery at St. Paul Park, Minn., operates 165 convenience stores
160104OGJ_13 13
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TRANSPORTATION Q U IC K TA K E S
Chevron signs HOA for Gorgon, Wheatstone LNG
Chevron Corp. has signed a nonbinding heads of agreement
with China Huadian Green Energy Co. Ltd. for the supply of
LNG from the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects off Western
Australia.
When the deal is finalized, China Huadian will receive as
much as 1 million tonnes/year of LNG for 10 years beginning
in 2020.
China Huadian is a subsidiary of China Huadian Group, one
of the largest state-owned electric power generation companies
in China.
The Santos Ltd.-led Gladstone LNG (GLNG) group has executed an agreement with Australian Gas Light Co. (AGL) to buy
14
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JOURNALLY SPEAKING
No submarines here
BOB TIPPEE
Editor
18
160104OGJ_18 18
Zooming imagination
So let imagination zoom. Envision airships longer
than a mile carrying Appalachian basin methane
to New York, or, if not welcome there, to morehospitable markets with space to land near pipeline
connections. Imagine the political implications of
so much destination flexibility.
Fanciful? Of course. But its something for environmental obstructionists to fret about, which
makes it worth a dream or two.
12/29/15 1:40 PM
160104OGJ_19 19
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EDITORIAL
Energy in oblivion
On several levels, this is regrettable. The real estate tycoon might commandeer the nomination
but cant be elected president. He exaggerates too
much, treats policy questions simplistically, and offends too many voters in too many identity groups.
He and his defiant supporters must think those
lapses dont matter. Theyre wrong. Because Trump
makes a controlling majority of Americans, across
the whole political spectrum, cringe, his bombastic
candidacy represents a futile distraction that plays
to corrosive Republican caricatures and steals attention from candidates with broader appeal.
In the December debate, moreover, Trumps
talent for show-stealing shoved into oblivion any
chance to address the crucial link between climate
activism and security. That link is energy, which is
inseparable from matters of national defense and
central to policy-making related to climate.
On energy, the 2016 presidential election will
be historically important. The Democratic candidate will promise to press the Obama administrations crusade to replace hydrocarbons, with its
aggressive targets for greenhouse-gas emissions,
hopeless attempts to choreograph energy use, and
environmentally unwarranted toughening of pollution standards to raise costs of fossil energy. By
choking economic growth, the measures Obama
pursues and a Democratic successor would sus-
20
160104OGJ_20 20
A perishable transformation
The perishability of Obamas energy transformation is
no excuse for inaction. Once Americans experience
the costs, learn how much more of their freedom and
treasure the climate crusade will claim, and feel the real
insecurity that results from growing threats and weakening defense, theyll demand a reversal of course.
Until that happens, though, many mistakes can
occur. Americans shouldnt have to endure the
pain, which can be prevented by honest answers
to better questions than anyone asks now about
energy and security. A presidential campaign
headlined by serious issues rather than celebrity
antics should be the perfect forum.
12/29/15 1:40 PM
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IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of insight, analytics and expertise in critical areas that shape todays business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 150 countries around the
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160104ogj_21 21
12/28/15 3:14 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
Conglin Xu
2015
2016
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Qtr.
Qtr.
Qtr.
Qtr.
Year
Qtr.
Qtr.
Qtr.
Qtr.
Year
Million b/d
Senior Editor-Economics
Laura Bell
Statistics Editor
DEMAND
OECD
Americas . . . . . . .
Europe . . . . . . . . .
Asia Pacific . . . . . .
Total OECD. . . . . .
24 .2
13 .4
8 .8
46.5
24 .1
13 .5
7 .7
45.3
24 .7
14 .1
7 .8
46.7
24 .4
13 .5
8 .3
46.2
24 .4
13 .7
8 .1
46.2
24 .3
13 .4
8 .7
46.4
24 .1
13 .7
7 .6
45.4
24 .6
13 .9
7 .8
46.4
24 .7
13 .6
8 .4
46.7
24 .4
13 .6
8 .1
46.2
Non-OECD
FSU . . . . . . . . . . .
Europe . . . . . . . . .
China . . . . . . . . . .
Other Asia . . . . . . .
Latin America . . . .
Middle East . . . . . .
Africa . . . . . . . . . .
Total Non-OECD . .
4 .6
0 .7
11 .0
12 .4
6 .7
7 .7
4 .1
47.1
4 .9
0 .7
11 .3
12 .5
6 .8
8 .3
4 .1
48.6
5 .0
0 .7
11 .3
12 .3
6 .9
8 .6
4 .0
48.8
4 .9
0 .7
11 .4
12 .9
6 .9
8 .0
4 .1
49.0
4 .9
0 .7
11 .3
12 .5
6 .8
8 .2
4 .1
48.4
4 .7
0 .7
11 .3
12 .9
6 .6
7 .9
4 .2
48.4
4 .8
0 .7
11 .7
13 .0
6 .8
8 .4
4 .2
49.7
5 .0
0 .7
11 .7
12 .8
6 .9
8 .9
4 .1
50.1
4 .9
0 .7
11 .8
13 .2
7 .0
8 .2
4 .3
50.1
4 .8
0 .7
11 .6
13 .0
6 .8
8 .3
4 .2
49.6
Total Demand . . . .
93.6
93.9
95.4
95.3
94.6
94.8
95.1
96.5
96.7
95.8
Supply
OECD
Americas . . . . . . .
Europe . . . . . . . . .
Asia Pacific . . . . . .
Total OECD . . . . . .
19 .9
3 .4
0 .4
23.7
19 .5
3 .5
0 .4
23.4
19 .9
3 .3
0 .5
23.8
19 .9
3 .4
0 .5
23.8
19 .8
3 .4
0 .5
23.7
19 .5
3 .4
0 .5
23.4
19 .2
3 .2
0 .5
23.0
19 .3
3 .0
0 .5
22.9
19 .6
3 .3
0 .5
23.4
19 .4
3 .2
0 .5
23.2
Non-OECD . . . . . . .
FSU . . . . . . . . . . .
Europe . . . . . . . . .
China . . . . . . . . . .
Other Asia . . . . . . .
Latin America . . . .
Middle East . . . . . .
Africa . . . . . . . . . .
Total Non-OECD . .
14 .0
0 .1
4 .3
3 .6
4 .6
1 .3
2 .3
30.3
14 .0
0 .1
4 .4
3 .6
4 .5
1 .2
2 .3
30.1
13 .9
0 .1
4 .3
3 .5
4 .5
1 .2
2 .3
30.0
13 .9
0 .1
4 .3
3 .5
4 .5
1 .2
2 .3
29.9
14 .0
0 .1
4 .3
3 .6
4 .5
1 .2
2 .3
30.1
13 .9
0 .1
4 .3
3 .5
4 .6
1 .2
2 .3
30.0
13 .9
0 .1
4 .3
3 .5
4 .6
1 .2
2 .3
29.9
13 .8
0 .1
4 .3
3 .4
4 .7
1 .2
2 .3
29.8
13 .8
0 .1
4 .3
3 .4
4 .7
1 .1
2 .3
29.8
13 .9
0 .1
4 .3
3 .5
4 .7
1 .2
2 .3
29.9
Processing gains . .
Global biofuels . . .
2 .2
1 .8
2 .2
2 .4
2 .2
2 .6
2 .2
2 .4
2 .2
2 .3
2 .3
1 .9
2 .3
2 .4
2 .4
2 .7
2 .3
2 .4
2 .3
2 .4
Total Non-OPEC . .
58.1
58.2
58.6
58.4
58.3
57.6
57.5
57.7
57.9
57.7
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . .
Crude . . . . . . . . . .
NGL . . . . . . . . . . .
Total OPEC . . . . . .
30 .5
6 .4
36.9
31 .5
6 .5
38.0
31 .7
6 .6
38.3
31 .7
6 .6
38.3
31 .4
6 .5
37.9
31 .7
6 .7
38.4
31 .9
6 .8
38.7
32 .0
6 .8
38.8
31 .9
6 .9
38.8
31 .9
6 .8
38.7
Total supply . . . . . .
95.0
96.2
96.9
96.7
96.2
96.0
96.2
96.5
96.7
96.4
Stock change . . . .
1 .4
2 .3
1 .5
1 .4
1 .6
1 .2
1 .1
0 .6
US ENERGY DEMAND
2014
2015
Trillion btu
Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hydro, other . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34,881
27,491
17,991
8,329
9,621
98,455
35,439
28,660
16,210
8,290
9,460
98,082
Change,
%
2016,
trillion btu
1 .6
4 .3
(9 .9)
(0 .5)
(1 .7)
(0.4)
35,758
28,889
16,161
8,124
9,744
98,677
Change,
%
0 .9
0 .8
(0 .3)
(2 .0)
3 .0
0.6
2014
2015
2016
% share of total energy
35 .4
27 .9
18 .3
8 .5
9 .8
100.0
36 .1
29 .2
16 .5
8 .5
9 .6
100.0
36 .2
29 .3
16 .4
8 .2
9 .9
100.0
Source: 2014 US Energy Information Administration; 2015 and 2016 OGJ estimate and forecast .
22
160104OGJ_22 22
12/29/15 1:43 PM
FIG. 1
97
3.5
96
Supply
Demand
OECD
3.0
China
2.5
95
Million b/d
Million b/d
2.0
94
93
1.5
1.0
0.5
92
0.0
91
-0.5
90
-1.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2013
2015
2016
3.0
3.2
US
2.5
Other
2.0
Total
Max/Min 2010-14
3.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
Average 2010-14
2014
3.0
Billion bbl
Million b/d
2014
2015
2.9
2.8
2.7
0.0
2.6
-0.5
-1.0
2.5
2013
2014
2015
2016
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
In the US natural gas market, rising production, recordlevel storage, and mild winter weather will suppress prices.
160104OGJ_23 23
23
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
12015
Volume,
% change
1,000 b/d
from 2014
DOMESTIC DEMAND
Motor gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9,141
7,556
1,585
(0 .1)
(0 .1)
(0 .1)
9,154
7,567
1,587
2 .6
2 .4
3 .6
Jet fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1,513
1,051
462
(1 .2)
(1 .2)
(1 .2)
1,532
1,064
468
4 .2
2 .8
7 .6
Distillate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4,100
3,545
555
2 .2
2 .2
2 .2
4,010
3,467
543
(0 .7)
(1 .3)
3 .8
Residual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
212
117
95
(9 .8)
(9 .8)
(9 .8)
235
130
105
(8 .6)
(10 .3)
(6 .3)
2,580
2,564
16
4 .8
4 .8
4 .8
2,461
2,446
15
0 .5
1 .0
(44 .4)
Other products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2,055
1,855
200
1 .4
1 .4
1 .4
2,026
1,829
197
2 .7
2 .0
9 .4
19,601
16,659
2,942
0 .9
0 .9
0 .9
19,418
16,503
2,915
1 .6
1 .3
3 .8
EXPORTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4,853
4,432
421
1 .1
1 .1
1 .1
4,800
4,384
416
14 .9
16 .8
(1 .4)
TOTAL DEMAND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24,454
21,091
3,363
1 .0
1 .0
1 .0
24,218
20,887
3,331
4 .0
4 .2
3 .1
SUPPLY
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Crude & condensate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8,900
7,861
1,039
(4 .5)
(4 .5)
(4 .5)
9,319
8,231
1,088
7 .0
8 .3
(1 .8)
3,360
3,293
67
3 .2
3 .2
3 .2
3,255
3,190
65
8 .0
8 .0
4 .8
12,260
11,154
1,106
(2 .5)
(2 .3)
(4 .1)
12,574
11,421
1,153
7 .2
8 .2
(1 .5)
1,090
1,065
25
(0 .5)
(0 .5)
(0 .5)
1,095
1,070
25
2 .1
2 .0
8 .7
IMPORTS
Crude oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7,460
6,331
1,129
2 .2
2 .2
2 .2
7,300
6,195
1,105
(0 .6)
(0 .8)
0 .4
2,110
1,849
261
(2 .3)
(2 .3)
(2 .3)
2,160
1,893
267
13 .9
9 .9
52 .6
9,570
8,180
1,390
1 .2
1 .1
1 .3
9,460
8,088
1,372
2 .4
1 .5
7 .5
1,100
910
190
5 .8
5 .8
5 .8
1,040
860
180
(3 .7)
(3 .7)
(3 .7)
24,020
21,308
2,712
(0 .6)
(0 .6)
(0 .7)
24,169
21,439
2,730
4 .5
4 .8
2 .8
STOCK CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dist . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(434)
218
(652)
(49)
552
(601)
16,200
16,480
18,150
90 .8
0 .1
0 .3
0 .8
(0 .5)
16,179
16,430
18,000
91 .3
2 .1
1 .7
0 .7
1 .0
1,240
799
441
695
(3 .9)
(2 .0)
(7 .2)
1,290
815
475
695
10 .4
5 .2
20 .9
0 .6
IMPORT DEPENDENCY
Total Imports % Domestic Demand . . . . . . . .
Net Imports % Domestic Demand . . . . . . . .
48 .8
24 .1
48 .7
24 .0
24
160104OGJ_24 24
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
non-OECD growth. Gains were robust in consumption of gasoline, jet
fuel, and LPG/ethane.
Oil demand in 2016 in OECD
countries, averaging 46.2 million b/d,
will be little changed from the 2015
level. Growth of 1.2 million b/d in
non-OECD demand will account for
the global demand increase. The expected demand slowdown reflects
factors in last years growth unlikely
to be a strong this year.
IEA estimated that demand in
OECD Europe countries will dip in
2016, while demand across OECD
North America and OECD Asia Pacific will be largely flat.
Asia excluding China will post
the largest demand gain in the nonOECD group in 2016, adding about
500,000 b/d to 13 million b/d. Chinas oil demand in 2016 is expected to
increase to 11.6 million b/d.
160104OGJ_25 25
2016,
bcf
Change, %
16/15
Marketed production
Texas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Louisiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal Gulf of Mexico . . . .
Other states . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total production . . . . . . . . .
7,634
2,360
1,309
14,259
25,562
7,953
1,980
1,255
16,149
27,337
8,155
1,905
1,306
17,677
29,043
2 .5
(3 .8)
4 .1
9 .5
6 .2
8,220
1,800
1,200
18,530
29,750
0 .8
(5 .5)
(8 .1)
4 .8
2 .4
Imports
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
LNG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total imports . . . . . . . . . . .
2,785
1
97
2,883
2,634
2
59
2,695
2,592
1
86
2,679
(1 .6)
(55 .0)
45 .8
(0 .6)
2,400
1
56
2,457
(7 .4)
11 .1
(35 .1)
(8 .3)
Supplemental gas . . . . . . . .
Losses, etc .* . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total new supply . . . . . . . .
55
(1,319)
27,181
60
(1,626)
28,466
58
(1,910)
29,870
(2 .7)
17 .5
4 .9
60
(1,967)
30,300
2 .7
3 .0
1 .4
546
27,727
(253)
28,213
(230)
29,640
(9 .1)
5 .1
(100)
30,200
(56 .5)
1 .9
Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total consumption . . . . . . .
1,572
26,155
1,514
26,699
1,780
27,860
17 .6
4 .3
2,130
28,070
19 .7
0 .8
Change, %
15/14
Year
1976 . . . . . . .
1977 . . . . . . .
1978 . . . . . . .
1979 . . . . . . .
1980 . . . . . . .
1981 . . . . . . .
1982 . . . . . . .
1983 . . . . . . .
1984 . . . . . . .
1985 . . . . . . .
1986 . . . . . . .
1987 . . . . . . .
1988 . . . . . . .
1989 . . . . . . .
1990 . . . . . . .
1991 . . . . . . .
1992 . . . . . . .
1993 . . . . . . .
1994 . . . . . . .
1995 . . . . . . .
1996 . . . . . . .
1997 . . . . . . .
1998 . . . . . . .
1999 . . . . . . .
2000 . . . . . . .
2001 . . . . . . .
2002 . . . . . . .
2003 . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . .
2005 . . . . . . .
2006 . . . . . . .
2007 . . . . . . .
2008 . . . . . . .
2009 . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . .
2011 . . . . . . .
2012 . . . . . . .
2013 . . . . . . .
2014 . . . . . . .
2015* . . . . . .
Crude oil
Average
Average
landed
US wellhead
cost of
price
imports
$/bbl
8 .19
8 .57
9 .00
12 .64
21 .59
31 .77
28 .52
26 .19
25 .88
24 .09
12 .51
15 .40
12 .58
15 .86
20 .03
16 .54
15 .99
14 .25
13 .19
14 .62
18 .46
17 .23
10 .88
15 .56
26 .72
21 .84
22 .51
27 .56
36 .77
50 .28
59 .69
66 .52
94 .04
56 .35
74 .71
95 .73
94 .52
95 .99
87 .39
45 .70
13 .32
14 .36
14 .35
21 .45
33 .67
36 .47
33 .18
28 .93
28 .54
26 .67
13 .49
17 .65
14 .08
17 .68
21 .13
18 .02
17 .75
15 .72
15 .18
16 .78
20 .31
18 .11
11 .84
17 .23
27 .53
21 .82
23 .91
27 .69
36 .07
49 .29
59 .11
67 .97
93 .33
60 .23
76 .50
102 .92
101 .00
96 .99
88 .16
46 .40
Products
No . 2
Unleaded
fuel oil
gasoline
wholesale
pump price
price
/gal
61 .4
65 .6
67 .0
90 .3
124 .5
137 .8
129 .6
124 .1
121 .2
120 .2
92 .7
94 .8
94 .6
102 .1
116 .4
114 .0
112 .7
110 .8
111 .2
114 .7
123 .1
123 .4
105 .9
116 .5
151 .0
146 .1
135 .8
159 .1
188 .0
229 .5
258 .9
280 .1
326 .6
235 .0
278 .8
352 .7
364 .4
352 .6
336 .7
245 .0
NA
NA
36 .9
56 .9
80 .3
97 .6
91 .4
81 .5
82 .1
77 .6
48 .6
52 .7
47 .3
56 .5
69 .7
62 .2
57 .9
54 .4
50 .6
51 .1
63 .9
59 .0
42 .2
49 .3
88 .6
75 .6
69 .4
88 .1
112 .5
162 .3
183 .4
207 .2
274 .5
165 .7
214 .7
290 .7
303 .1
296 .6
274 .1
163 .5
Natural gas
Average
delivered
Henry Hub
commercial
spot price
price
$/Mcf
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1 .89
1 .72
2 .75
2 .49
2 .09
2 .26
4 .31
3 .96
3 .38
5 .47
5 .89
8 .69
6 .73
6 .97
8 .86
3 .94
4 .37
4 .00
2 .75
3 .73
4 .44
2 .75
1 .64
2 .04
2 .23
2 .73
3 .39
4 .00
4 .82
5 .59
5 .55
5 .50
5 .08
4 .77
4 .63
4 .74
4 .83
4 .81
4 .88
5 .22
5 .44
5 .05
5 .40
5 .80
5 .48
5 .33
6 .59
8 .43
6 .63
8 .40
9 .43
11 .34
12 .00
11 .34
12 .23
10 .06
9 .47
8 .91
8 .10
8 .08
8 .90
8 .00
*Estimated
Source: 1976-2014 US Energy Information Administration; 2015 OGJ estimates
25
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1,000 b/d
District 1:
Fla., N.Y., Pa., W. Va. . . . . .
Cumulative
1859-2015,
1,000 bbl
51
51
46
46
39
39
26
26
22
22
20
21
15
15
20
20
20
20
22
22
2,883,689
2,872,729
District 2:
Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25
Indiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
Kansas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
127
Kentucky . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
Michigan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
Nebraska . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
North Dakota . . . . . . . . . . . 1,168
Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
69
Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
335
Others2
6
26
7
136
9
20
8
1,087
41
343
7
1,684
26
7
128
8
21
8
860
22
314
7
1,401
24
6
120
9
20
8
665
14
239
6
1,111
25
5
114
6
19
7
419
13
201
5
814
25
5
111
7
19
6
310
13
185
5
686
25
5
108
7
17
6
218
13
183
5
587
26
5
108
7
17
7
172
14
185
5
546
26
5
100
7
15
6
124
14
175
5
477
28
5
98
6
14
6
109
15
172
5
458
3,687,642
570,295
6,640,352
799,811
1,312,504
522,629
3,310,232
1,174,882
15,236,875
81,714
33,336,936
District 3:
Alabama . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27
Arkansas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
Louisiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360
Mississippi . . . . . . . . . . . . .
69
New Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . .
414
Texas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,760
27
19
1,305
67
339
3,451
5,208
28
18
1,200
67
276
2,781
4,370
26
18
1,206
67
233
2,226
3,776
23
16
1,243
66
195
1,712
3,255
20
16
1,426
66
179
1,481
3,188
20
16
1,439
64
168
1,406
3,113
21
17
1,125
60
162
1,341
2,726
20
17
1,237
57
162
1,328
2,821
21
17
1,272
48
164
1,317
2,839
709,934
1,825,964
32,681,926
2,505,874
5,994,905
68,309,510
112,028,113
178
80
96
173
663
135
72
83
158
528
108
66
72
150
448
90
69
68
146
396
83
76
63
141
375
81
86
60
145
363
72
96
54
148
372
64
99
49
145
370
63
90
46
141
357
2,203,339
1,791,233
1,476,671
7,291,365
13,154,766
482
605
1
497
611
1
1,109
515
596
1
1,112
526
587
1
1,114
561
585
1
1,147
600
607
1
1,208
645
629
1
1,275
683
652
1
1,336
722
666
1
1,389
741
684
1
1,426
17,475,910
29,187,132
54,376
46,717,418
US total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,319
8,710
7,450
6,475
5,634
5,478
5,353
5,000
5,077
5,102
208,109,851
Total Dist. 1 . . . . . . . . . . . .
District 4:
Colorado . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Montana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wyoming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
198
83
107
194
Total Dist. 4 . . . . . . . . . . . .
761
District 5:
Alaska
California
Nevada
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1,000 b/d
Gasoline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kerosene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Jet fuel-kerosene . . . . . . . . .
Distillate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Residual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Unfinished oils . . . . . . . . . . .
Other2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...................
Total US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66
1
122
193
301
589
887
2,160
49
94
195
173
547
839
1,897
45
1
84
155
225
656
963
2,129
44
1
55
126
256
598
992
2,072
105
3
69
179
328
687
1,198
2,569
134
2
98
228
366
606
1,146
2,580
223
3
81
225
331
677
1,138
2,678
302
2
103
213
349
763
1,400
3,132
413
3
217
304
372
717
1,410
3,436
475
5
186
365
350
689
1,520
3,590
26
160104OGJ_26 26
production target or actual output despite global oversupply. Also at the meeting, OPEC members voted unanimously to reactivate Indonesias OPEC membership, despite its
remaining a net importer of crude oil.
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1,000 b/d
SUPPLY
Crude imports2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Crude production . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Crude adjustment . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7,300
9,319
257
16,876
7,344
8,703
238
16,285
7,730
7,442
254
15,426
8,527
6,489
136
15,152
8,935
5,658
182
14,775
9,213
5,474
92
14,779
9,013
5,361
83
14,457
9,783
4,950
15
14,748
10,031
5,079
27
15,137
10,118
5,102
41
15,261
Total demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16,179
480
0
16,659
15,848
351
0
16,199
15,312
134
0
15,446
14,999
67
0
15,066
14,806
47
0
14,853
14,724
42
0
14,766
14,336
44
56
14,436
14,648
29
19
14,696
15,156
27
7
15,190
15,242
25
8
15,275
217
86
(20)
86
(78)
13
21
122
(53)
(14)
475
695
1,170
393
691
1,084
357
696
1,053
365
695
1,060
331
696
1,027
333
727
1,060
325
727
1,052
326
702
1,028
286
697
983
312
689
1,001
Total supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
DEMAND
Crude refinery runs . . . . . . . . . . . .
Crude exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Crude into SPR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Primary (industry) . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SPR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total crude stocks (million bbl) . . .
1
Preliminary . 2Includes imports for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve . 3Includes Alaskan crude in transit .
Source: US Energy Information Administration
1950 . . . . . . . . .
1955 . . . . . . . . .
1960 . . . . . . . . .
1965 . . . . . . . . .
1970 . . . . . . . . .
1975 . . . . . . . . .
1980 . . . . . . . . .
1985 . . . . . . . . .
1990 . . . . . . . . .
1995 . . . . . . . . .
2000 . . . . . . . . .
2001 . . . . . . . . .
2002 . . . . . . . . .
2003 . . . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . . . .
2005 . . . . . . . . .
2006 . . . . . . . . .
2007 . . . . . . . . .
2008 . . . . . . . . .
2009 . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . .
2011 . . . . . . . . .
2012 . . . . . . . . .
2013 . . . . . . . . .
2014 . . . . . . . . .
1
2015 . . . . . . . .
2
2016 . . . . . . . .
GDP,
billion
2009
$
Energy
consumption,
trillion
btu
Energy
consumption
per GDP,
2009 $
(Mbtu)
2,184 .0
2,739 .0
3,108 .7
3,976 .7
4,722 .0
5,385 .4
6,450 .4
7,593 .8
8,955 .0
10,174 .8
12,559 .7
12,682 .2
12,908 .8
13,271 .1
13,773 .5
14,234 .2
14,613 .8
14,873 .7
14,830 .4
14,418 .7
14,783 .8
15,020 .6
15,354 .6
15,583 .3
15,961 .7
16,346 .1
16,754 .8
34,616
40,208
45,086
54,015
67,838
71,965
78,067
76,392
84,485
91,032
98,819
96,172
97,647
97,921
100,094
100,193
99,492
101,027
98,906
94,138
97,480
96,902
94,487
97,241
98,455
98,082
98,677
15 .8
14 .7
14 .5
13 .6
14 .4
13 .4
12 .1
10 .1
9 .4
8 .9
7 .7
7 .7
7 .6
7 .5
7 .3
7 .0
6 .9
6 .6
6 .3
6 .5
6 .6
6 .5
6 .2
6 .2
6 .2
6 .0
5 .9
Oil
energy
consumption,
trillion
btu
Oil energy
consumption
per GDP,
2009 $
(Mbtu)
Natural
gas energy
consumption,
trillion
btu
Natural gas
energy
consumption
per GDP,
2009 $
(Mbtu)
Total oil
and natural
gas energy
consumption,
trillion
btu
Total
oil and
gas energy
consumption
per GDP,
2009 $
(Mbtu)
Oil and
natural gas
energy
% of total
energy
31,632
37,410
42,137
50,577
63,522
32,732
34,205
30,925
33,552
34,441
38,286
38,190
38,226
38,790
40,227
40,303
39,824
39,491
36,907
34,959
35,489
34,824
34,016
34,613
34,881
35,439
35,758
14 .5
13 .7
13 .6
12 .7
13 .5
6 .1
5 .3
4 .1
3 .7
3 .4
3 .0
3 .0
3 .0
2 .9
2 .9
2 .8
2 .7
2 .7
2 .5
2 .4
2 .4
2 .3
2 .2
2 .2
2 .2
2 .2
2 .1
5,968
8,998
12,385
15,769
21,795
19,948
20,235
17,703
19,603
22,671
23,824
22,773
23,510
22,831
22,923
22,565
22,239
23,663
23,843
23,416
24,575
24,955
26,089
26,805
27,491
28,660
28,889
2 .7
3 .3
4 .0
4 .0
4 .6
3 .7
3 .1
2 .3
2 .2
2 .2
1 .9
1 .8
1 .8
1 .7
1 .7
1 .6
1 .5
1 .6
1 .6
1 .6
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .8
1 .7
37,600
46,408
54,522
66,346
85,317
52,680
54,440
48,628
53,155
57,112
62,110
60,963
61,736
61,621
63,150
62,868
62,063
63,154
60,750
58,375
60,064
59,779
60,105
61,418
62,372
64,099
64,647
17 .2
16 .9
17 .5
16 .7
18 .1
9 .8
8 .4
6 .4
5 .9
5 .6
4 .9
4 .8
4 .8
4 .6
4 .6
4 .4
4 .2
4 .2
4 .1
4 .0
4 .1
4 .0
3 .9
3 .9
3 .9
3 .9
3 .9
108 .6
115 .4
120 .9
122 .8
125 .8
73 .2
69 .7
63 .7
62 .9
62 .7
62 .9
63 .4
63 .2
62 .9
63 .1
62 .7
62 .4
62 .5
61 .4
62 .0
61 .6
61 .7
63 .6
63 .2
63 .4
65 .4
65 .5
Estimated . 2Forecast .
Source: US Energy Information Administration
160104OGJ_27 27
SPECIAL
REPORT
earlier average of 4.5 million b/d. OECD Americas supply will average 19.4 million b/d this year,
down 400,000 b/d from last year.
Including processing gains and global biofuels,
IEA forecasts that 2016 non-OPEC supply will average 57.7 million b/d, down from last years 58.3
million b/d.
OGJ estimates that OPEC crude output will average 31.9 million b/d this year, up 500,000 b/d
27
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
Algeria3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Angola3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Congo, former Zaire . . . . . . .
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . .
Ecuador3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Iran3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Iraq3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kuwait3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Libya3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nigeria3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Qatar3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia3 . . . . . . . . . . . .
Trinidad & Tobago . . . . . . . .
United Arab Emirates3 . . . . .
United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . .
Venezuela3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1,000 b/d
Total imports . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
126
5
3,199
0
360
0
8
239
6
33
0
189
217
4
0
664
52
9
0
0
990
5
2
9
788
393
7,300
6
139
2
2,882
0
294
0
4
213
16
20
0
369
309
5
0
781
58
9
0
0
1,159
5
13
10
733
317
7,344
29
201
1
2,579
1
367
0
18
232
24
18
0
341
326
43
0
850
239
17
3
0
1,325
8
2
21
755
329
7,730
120
222
6
2,425
1
403
0
29
177
42
6
0
476
303
56
0
975
406
26
9
0
1,361
27
0
18
912
527
8,527
178
335
9
2,225
2
397
11
53
203
34
20
0
459
191
9
0
1,102
767
53
41
5
1,186
33
7
36
868
711
8,935
328
383
10
1,970
4
338
9
70
210
47
33
0
415
195
43
3
1,152
983
25
12
0
1,082
45
2
120
912
822
9,213
281
448
11
1,943
8
251
9
64
181
63
15
0
449
180
61
7
1,092
776
58
30
8
980
40
39
103
951
965
9,013
312
504
33
1,956
11
178
0
67
214
58
16
0
627
206
68
2
1,187
922
30
17
0
1,503
23
4
78
1,039
728
9,783
443
498
2
1,888
6
137
0
63
198
63
15
0
484
175
84
1
1,409
1,084
56
32
0
1,447
48
9
101
1,148
640
10,031
362
513
5
1,802
19
141
0
27
272
60
16
0
553
179
66
7
1,577
1,037
98
35
1
1,423
67
5
130
1,142
581
10,118
2,641
3,005
3,493
4,031
4,209
4,553
4,355
5,415
5,388
4,783
Includes imports for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve . 2Preliminary . 3OPEC member .
Source: US Energy Information Administration
433
1,218
333
74
542
18
785
918
4,320
480
4,800
442
1,101
364
67
541
23
537
749
3,824
351
4,160
373
1,134
362
73
524
25
332
664
3,487
134
3,621
409
1,007
388
75
503
30
196
529
3,137
67
3,204
479
854
424
68
499
31
148
435
2,938
47
2,985
296
656
405
62
449
30
132
281
2,311
42
2,353
195
587
415
57
391
27
100
209
1,981
44
2,025
172
528
355
60
377
23
67
191
1,773
29
1,802
127
268
330
59
366
19
57
179
1,405
27
1,433
142
215
283
55
366
15
56
160
1,292
25
1,317
*Preliminary .
Source: US Energy Information Administration
from 2015, with Iran forecast to increase producstock build of 600,000 b/d this year, down more
tion once international sanctions targeting its oil
than half from the 2015 level. Most of the build is
sector are suspended, probably in the first half.
expected in the first half of the year. Global storage
Since mid-2012, Irans crude exports are down
capacity should not come under pressure, accordby more than 1 million b/d due to sanctions. Proing to IEA. A total of 230 million bbl of new storage
duction is down by 750,000 b/d from presanccapacity is to be commissioned in 2016, more than
SPECIAL
tion levels. IEA estimates that Iran could produce
REPORT half in Chinese and Indian facilities for strategic
3.4-3.6 million b/d, up 500,000-700,000 b/d from
storage, as well as new terminals in North America,
current levels, within 6 months of sanctions being
China, the Middle East, and Europe.
lifted.
Inventories in OECD countries in October were 260
Demand and supply at projected levels imply an average
million bbl above the average of the past 5 years, repre-
28
160104OGJ_28 28
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2 .3
11 .2
0 .0
6 .5
13 .2
12 .4
0 .8
38 .9
0 .7
0 .2
1 .9
0 .4
13
1 .5
78
28 .1
4 .8
11
34
0 .0
5 .1
1 .7
2 .1
0 .3
53 .1
0 .0
85 .3
25
118 .2
42
0 .0
434 .8
92 .9
0 .9
4 .9
19 .4
26 .8
44 .8
245 .3
7 .5
18 .8
27 .2
0 .0
988.8
949 .4
5
35 .8
5 .8
9 .8
0 .0
11 .5
41 .9
40 .5
1 .4
67 .8
1 .7
0 .4
1 .6
1 .8
28 .5
3 .2
110 .6
27 .8
15 .2
16 .1
51 .6
0 .0
12 .9
8 .5
2 .0
0 .9
91 .6
0 .0
176 .2
40 .5
199 .3
55 .4
0 .4
880 .9
176 .2
2 .2
16 .7
63 .6
41
105 .6
475 .7
25 .1
28 .6
53 .8
0 .0
1,860.7
1,788 .7
14 .8
57 .1
4 .9
9 .2
0 .3
13 .7
38 .1
36 .4
1 .7
63 .4
1 .8
0 .0
3 .7
1 .3
26 .9
0 .6
107 .9
23 .4
20 .4
15 .4
48 .8
0 .5
10 .8
11 .5
1 .4
2 .6
77 .1
0 .0
173 .1
32 .1
178 .6
58 .9
1 .3
835 .1
162 .3
4 .6
21 .1
65 .3
41 .6
91 .1
449 .2
29 .3
28 .1
48 .4
0 .8
1,761.4
1,684 .6
20 .7
56 .1
5 .4
7 .1
0 .2
21 .3
44 .0
43 .3
0 .7
64 .4
1 .4
0 .1
1 .0
1 .0
30 .3
2 .7
123 .8
35 .7
18 .1
26 .2
43 .7
1 .8
10 .8
20 .0
0 .9
1 .3
83 .7
0 .3
187 .9
18 .4
195 .8
84 .1
0 .9
899 .3
171 .9
2 .3
26 .0
71 .1
61 .2
93 .5
473 .4
36 .9
25 .9
46 .6
1 .4
1,918.7
1,852 .3
19 .0
47 .4
6 .5
6 .5
0 .0
34 .4
44 .8
44 .7
0 .1
71 .9
1 .2
0 .0
1 .3
1 .0
28 .6
5 .1
164 .5
96 .9
17 .0
21 .8
28 .9
2 .2
9 .3
9 .0
1 .0
3 .3
79 .1
0 .0
168 .2
10 .9
180 .2
109 .7
0 .8
840 .3
154 .4
3 .2
32 .9
70 .7
112 .7
81 .5
384 .9
27 .6
21 .4
48 .3
1 .5
1,878.6
1,828 .8
17 .6
32 .3
5 .0
7 .7
0 .0
39 .1
32 .0
31 .8
0 .5
57 .7
1 .2
0 .0
1 .8
3 .3
20 .4
5 .5
191 .5
134 .2
13 .7
16 .1
27 .5
0 .0
10 .7
6 .6
1 .6
5 .6
62 .2
1 .2
113 .5
7 .4
127 .5
84 .7
0 .6
658 .7
119 .9
3 .6
35 .7
59 .8
146 .9
68 .6
224 .2
26 .6
23 .1
40 .3
3 .4
1,538.9
1,493 .3
14 .2
31 .5
3 .7
7 .7
0 .0
44 .1
22 .8
22 .0
0 .8
50 .4
0 .6
0 .0
0 .8
2 .1
19 .6
9 .7
150 .0
89 .2
8 .1
14 .8
37 .9
0 .0
10 .1
2 .7
0 .3
3 .4
43 .7
2 .2
49 .4
7 .9
94 .4
41 .7
0 .3
432 .2
88 .2
3 .4
24 .8
34 .8
150 .7
38 .5
91 .7
18 .3
22 .2
40 .0
7 .1
1,087.4
1,035 .3
8 .2
43 .9
192 .8
2 .5
1,184.1
374 .5
1 .7
2,236.9
350 .6
2 .4
2,114.4
362 .6
1 .0
2,282.3
417 .3
1 .4
2,297.3
343 .5
1 .8
1,884.2
221 .5
1 .2
1,310.1
US economy, energy
Economic data indicate the US economy will continue to
grow, led by more solid gains in consumer spending and
steady improvements in housing construction. OGJ forecasts that the US economy will grow 2.5% in 2016.
US energy demand will grow 0.6% this year, OGJ forecasts, following last years contraction to 98.08 quadrillion
btu (quads) from a 2014 total of 98.45 quads. The 2014 and
2015 numbers are from EIA and are subject to frequent
revision.
Demand for petroleum products this year will grow
only marginally, 0.9%, following growth of 1.6% last year.
160104OGJ_29 29
2007
2006
4 .5
8 .3
0 .0
50 .4
41 .2
40 .4
0 .8
114 .0
1 .0
0 .0
0 .5
1 .7
11 .3
10 .2
167 .3
67 .9
20 .4
25 .6
53 .3
1 .1
13 .1
10 .7
0 .1
3 .3
78 .6
6 .0
68 .1
11 .6
200 .0
23 .0
1 .6
898 .4
187 .1
10 .1
41 .7
81 .9
305 .8
93 .9
178 .0
41 .6
26 .9
73 .9
10 .6
1,879.0
1,791 .8
22 .0
65 .3
4 .6
8 .4
0 .0
45 .4
35 .4
33 .8
1 .6
106 .7
0 .4
0 .3
0 .1
2 .0
13 .8
9 .0
177 .0
57 .9
24 .6
33 .8
60 .7
1 .5
14 .0
16 .9
0 .1
2 .2
78 .1
6 .4
38 .9
13 .2
188 .2
15 .6
1 .5
834 .3
180 .3
10 .5
36 .7
60 .5
294 .8
94 .6
156 .9
41 .1
31 .6
73 .6
7 .6
1,767.8
1,669 .8
25 .7
72 .6
4 .6
8 .0
0 .0
24 .0
33 .3
29 .3
4 .0
88 .5
0 .3
0 .3
0 .0
0 .0
9 .6
7 .2
188 .4
57 .5
19 .2
38 .5
73 .2
2 .2
10 .3
21 .3
0 .0
1 .3
93 .8
6 .4
31 .5
7 .5
178 .7
15 .7
1 .1
746 .4
170 .3
14 .8
33 .5
68 .2
243 .3
79 .0
137 .5
40 .2
26 .5
99 .0
2 .6
1,648.7
1,536 .6
22 .2
89 .9
380 .4
1 .2
2,260.6
340 .0
2 .5
2,110.3
466 .5
3 .6
2,118.8
2008
US oil demand
In 2015, US liquid fuel consumption growth was led by
motor gasoline, which is estimated to have increased by
233,000 b/d, or 2.6%, as effects of lower gasoline prices
and employment growth outweighed increases in vehicle-
29
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
MMcfd
Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Louisiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
New Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Texas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wyoming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal offshore . . . . . . . . . .
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
929
5,296
3,434
6,917
21,936
4,857
3,673
32,259
79,301
944
5,411
3,226
6,312
21,730
4,894
3,430
28,744
74,690
927
6,594
3,275
5,874
20,672
5,091
3,587
24,366
70,386
960
8,075
3,322
5,529
20,425
5,525
4,119
21,193
69,147
999
8,356
3,481
5,203
19,222
5,961
4,984
17,647
65,853
1,033
6,154
3,623
5,006
18,292
6,365
6,157
15,202
61,833
1,087
4,197
3,846
5,090
18,769
6,464
6,665
13,191
59,309
1,089
3,763
3,951
5,227
18,910
6,215
6,358
12,518
58,031
1,188
3,741
4,159
4,887
16,776
5,611
7,668
11,305
55,332
1,218
3,729
4,409
4,627
15,200
4,976
7,951
11,067
53,177
Volume change . . . . . . . . . . .
Percent change . . . . . . . . . .
4,611
6 .2
4,304
6 .1
1,239
1 .8
3,294
5 .0
4,021
6 .5
2,523
4 .3
1,278
2 .2
2,699
4 .9
2,155
4 .1
53,177
2 .5
Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7,339
4,875
7,364
4,296
7,899
4,307
8,574
4,423
9,504
4,129
10,249
3,114
10,278
2,938
10,886
2,632
12,624
2,253
11,469
1,983
Crude runs
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1,000 b/d
1,013
92
1,105
86 .3
94 .2
86 .9
1,000
87
1,087
949
89
1,038
827
92
919
1,009
88
1,097
1,037
81
1,118
1,171
89
1,259
1,332
90
1,421
1,426
87
1,513
1,418
94
1,512
2,311
488
815
3,613
92 .1
99 .2
95 .7
93 .8
2,246
462
815
3,523
2,181
446
779
3,406
2,210
450
782
3,442
2,191
440
741
3,372
2,115
420
746
3,281
2,004
408
723
3,135
2,079
412
730
3,221
2,131
401
694
3,226
2,161
413
723
3,297
Texas: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Inland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 650
Gulf Coast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,220
Louisiana Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,274
N . La ., Ark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
New Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
645
4,211
3,398
201
125
93 .6
91 .9
93 .0
82 .7
97 .5
650
4,063
3,212
206
123
640
3,918
3,072
209
112
612
3,707
3,092
208
115
601
3,460
3,063
219
105
565
3,609
2,966
189
105
558
3,407
2,781
170
103
584
3,276
2,749
182
107
570
3,417
3,035
187
106
610
3,445
2,913
197
95
Total US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,179
8,580
602
2,531
16,430
92 .3
92 .7
86 .3
91 .3
8,254
581
2,402
15,847
7,951
578
2,339
15,312
7,734
573
2,331
14,999
7,448
545
2,346
14,808
7,433
540
2,351
14,724
7,020
540
2,382
14,336
6,899
536
2,571
14,648
7,315
542
2,560
15,156
7,260
553
2,621
15,242
30
160104OGJ_30 30
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
Gasoline2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Motor3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Aviation3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Special naphthas . . . . . . . . .
Kerosene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Distillate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Residual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kerosine jet fuel . . . . . . . . . .
Natural gas liquids & LRG . . .
Unfinished oils . . . . . . . . . . .
Other refined products . . . . .
Total products stocks . . . . . .
Crude stocks (ex . SPR) . . . .
Total stocks (ex . SPR) . . . . .
SPR stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total stocks (incl . SPR) . . . .
231,303
230,335
968
1,459
1,897
141,692
40,164
41,245
194,441
88,334
74,464
815,000
475,000
1,290,000
695,000
1,985,000
241,460
240,368
1,092
1,375
2,124
136,286
33,662
38,274
175,364
78,345
68,324
775,214
393,341
1,168,555
690,959
1,859,514
228,904
228,034
870
1,262
1,886
127,543
38,144
37,183
128,425
77,959
67,035
708,341
357,063
1,065,404
695,969
1,761,373
231,958
230,888
1,070
1,228
1,759
134,809
33,951
39,620
153,268
82,284
68,136
747,013
365,496
1,112,509
695,268
1,807,777
224,302
223,147
1,155
1,061
2,449
149,212
34,189
41,483
129,374
78,809
62,578
723,457
330,679
1,054,136
695,951
1,750,087
220,540
224,328
219,435
223,282
1,105
1,046
1,016
1,121
2,419
2,476
164,306
165,964
41,347
37,168
43,218
43,397
120,782
112,628
80,624
79,893
59,872
57,605
734,124
724,580
333,430
325,179
1,067,554 1,049,759
726,545
726,616
1,794,099 1,776,375
214,738
213,550
1,188
1,438
2,248
146,013
36,057
37,969
126,909
83,463
60,241
709,076
325,840
1,034,916
701,823
1,736,739
219,369
218,107
1,262
1,571
2,804
133,944
39,338
39,458
105,870
81,209
58,736
682,299
286,105
968,404
696,941
1,665,345
213,226
211,806
1,420
1,609
3,373
143,651
42,397
39,129
125,109
83,782
66,349
718,625
312,276
1,030,901
688,605
1,719,506
Preliminary . 2Includes reformulated, oxygenated, and other finished gasoline . 3Includes blending components .
Source: US Energy Information Administration
US output stalls
US crude oil production growth has ceased. OGJ forecasts
average output in 2016 will drop to 8.9 million b/d from
9.32 million b/d last year. US crude oil production averaged
8.7 million b/d in 2014.
Average monthly US crude production peaked in April
2015 at 9.58 million b/d and declined in 5 of the six following months, according to the EIA. From the peak rate,
production in November was down 420,000 b/d for total
US and 460,000 b/d for the Lower 48.
According to EIAs Drilling Productivity Report, legacy
declines from existing wells by December had been exceeding output from new wells since May, with total production set to fall by 115,000 b/d in the last month of 2015.
US shale oil producers, having slashed budgets throughout 2015, plan to pare spending further this year. Companies including Devon Energy Corp., Continental Resources
Inc., and Marathon Oil Corp. released preliminary 2016
plans for capital spending that fall by double-digit percentages.
Output from the Gulf of Mexico averaged 1.54 million
b/d in 2015, up 10.4% from the 2014 level. Twelve projects were scheduled to come online in the Gulf of Mexico
in 2015 and 2016. In 2016, production from the gulf is
expected to increase to 1.6 million b/d, while oil production in Alaska will continue to fall, reflecting declines from
legacy fields.
With expected additions of natural gas processing, NGL
production will climb to an average 3.36 million b/d this
160104OGJ_31 31
year from 3.25 million b/d in 2015 and 3.01 million b/d in
2014.
Oil in storage
US commercial crude oil stocks in 2015, averaging 466
million bbl, were up 22% or 85 million bbl from the prior
year. Stocks of motor gasoline were up 2% from last year to
average 225 million bbl. Distillate fuel oil stocks were up
13% from the prior year to 139 million bbl. Average jet fuel
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GENERAL INTEREST
stocks were up by 7% from the prior year. Total inventories
of all oils excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were
up 13% from year ago levels, averaging 1.262 billion bbl.
Crude oil in storage, excluding that in the SPR, will
fall to 440 million bbl at the close of 2016, OGJ forecasts.
This is down from a yearend 2015 total of 475 million bbl,
which was 22% higher than a year earlier.
The total volume of oil products in storage also will
move lower from the end of 2015. OGJ forecasts that product stocks will total 799 million bbl at the end of this year,
down from the year-earlier total of 815 million bbl.
The amount of crude in the SPR last year grew to 695
million bbl from 691 million bbl a year earlier.
32
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GENERAL INTEREST
The US Senate approved an omnibus budget bill including language which would repeal the 40-year-old
ban on exports of domestically produced crude by 65
to 33 votes. The Dec. 18 action came hours after the
House passed the same measure by 316 to 113 votes.
The bill now heads to the White House, where US
President Barack Obama is expected to sign it. It won
crucial support from several Democrats because it also
would revive expired tax credits for alternative energy
sources ranging from wind and solar to biodiesel.
Leading oil and gas industry associations immediately expressed their approval. This is a historic moment in our energy renaissance, American Petroleum
Institute Pres. Jack N. Gerard said. Lifting this ban
will help put downward pressure on gas prices, create
jobs, grow our economy and lower our trade deficit.
The US is producing more energy than ever before, with production at its highest levels in decades,
Independent Petroleum Association of America Pres.
Barry Russell observed. The ability to export surplus US crude oil is a much needed shot in the arm for
Americas producers and the economy, and will generate significant savings for American families and consumers.
The American consumer is the beneficiary of todays decision by Congress, said ConocoPhillips Chief
Executive Ryan M. Lance, who also chairs Producers
for American Crude Exports (PACE). Its particularly
important at a time when our industry is experiencing
a period of extreme volatility and uncertainty
160104OGJ_33 33
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12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
decreased, averaging 5.1 million b/d.
US crude oil imports averaged more than 8.3 million
b/d, up 291,000 b/d from the previous week.
Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.9 million
b/d, which was 6.3% above the same 4-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports, including finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 660,000
b/d for the week ended Dec. 11 while distillate fuel imports
averaged 84,000 b/d, EIA said.
forecast the price for its basket of crudes will reach $70/bbl in
2020 and $95/bbl in 2040.
OPEC said it likely will cut its own production to 30.6 million b/d in 2019 compared with November production of 31.7
million b/d, which the group called its highest production
level in 3 years.
The supply and demand balance in 2015 has been one of
oversupply with stock levels rising to well above the 5-year
average, the outlook said. This past year has been a test for
all producers and investors who have had to face up to the
realities of a shifting global oil industry.
On the demand side, OPEC sees world oil demand rising
to 97.4 million b/d by 2020, marking an increase of 500,000
b/d from the previous outlook demand forecast. By 2040, the
latest outlook forecasts oil demand at 110 million b/d.
From the supply perspective, in last years WOO,
non-OPEC liquids were expected to rise to 61.2 million
b/d by 2020, whereas this year, the number has dropped
by 1 million b/d to 60.2 million b/d. All this means that
by 2020, the requirement for OPEC crude is anticipated
to be at 30.7 million b/d, an increase of 1.7 million b/d
from last year, WOO said.
Oil-related investment requirements are estimated to
be $10 trillion from 2015-40, WOO added.
OPEC member countries maintain their readiness to invest in the development of new upstream capacity, in the
maintenance of existing fields, and in the building and expansion of the necessary infrastructure, WOO said.
34
160104OGJ_34 34
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
creators, said Linda Kelly, NAM senior vice-president and
general counsel.
Further, our air quality is improving, and ozone levels
are down more than 30% since 1980, yet the [Obama] administration insists on moving forward with tightening an
already stringent standard, she said.
Tightening ozone standards could increase costs to
the American public, reduce the nations ability to compete internationally, and threaten US jobs, the American
Petroleum Institute said on a policy issues page at its
web site.
It cited a recent NERA Economic Consulting studys
findings that a stricter ozone regulation could reduce US
gross domestic product by $270 billion/year and $3.4
trillion from 2017 to 2040, and result in 2.9 million/
year fewer jobs or job equivalents on average through
2040.
160104OGJ_35 35
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GENERAL INTEREST
36
160104OGJ_36 36
Here, Enbridge reached out to [DOS] to obtain confirmation that the replaced project for the border segment
was consistent with the 1991 permit covering Line 3, and
that the bypass project was outside the scope of the Line
67 permit as the interconnections were outside the border
segment, he wrote.
He also rejected the plaintiffs claims of an APA violation
because they were not based on an agency action.
Todays decision leaves in place the [DOS] approval
of Enbridges use of Line 3 and Line 67 consistent with
its existing permits, an Enbridge spokeswoman said on
Dec. 9. The interconnections are simply leveraging the
flexibility we have under our existing permits to meet our
obligations to shippers, and to continue the vital service
of transporting reliable, secure supplies of North American crude oil.
Lawyers for the environmental groups said they were
disappointed with the ruling, and were considering a range
of options including a possible appeal.
While Venezuelas new legislative majority faces many immediate concerns with the Nicolas Maduro regime following a Dec. 6 election, it also should begin to disband and
replace Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), a former board
member of the national oil company said.
I believe PDVSA is impossible to upgrade, said Gustavo Coronel, a petroleum geologist and consultant on energy geopolitics and public policy who was a member of the
Venezuelan Congress before then-President Hugo Chavez
dissolved it. It should be replaced by another model of oil
industry management in Venezuela.
The process would take at least 2 years, he said during a
Dec. 17 Hudson Institute forum on the elections in which
Maduros political opposition won a super-majority and the
ability to challenge the presidents rule.
It also will be politically difficult, because PDVSAs national status is almost a matter of religion
in Venezuela, like [Petroleos Mexicanos] in Mexico,
which began reforms and quickly ran into opposition, Coronel said.
But it will be necessary since Chavez diverted PDVSAs
oil export revenue into ambitious social programs for the
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
poor, and instituted heavily discounted or free sales to
Cuba and neighboring Bolivarian socialist countries, he
said.
The resulting lack of operational reinvestment and
maintenance, coupled with a migration of geologists, engineers, and other specialists to neighboring nations oil
firms, has left PDVSA in ruins, Coronel said. Other speakers said it has become the countrys main money launderer
as drug cartels and criminals have moved in to the national
government.
160104OGJ_37 37
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12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
na Nacional field in Tabasco; Lifting was awarded Cuichapa-Poniente in Veracruz in close proximity to Canamexs
awarded Moloacan; a former service provider for Pemex,
Diavaz was awarded Barcodon in Tamaulipas and Catedral
in Chiapas; Roma was awarded Paraiso in Tabasco; and Diarqco was awarded Mayacaste and Calicanto in Tabasco.
Of the Canadian firms mentioned by Alvarez, Renaissance was awarded Mundo Nuevo A and B, Topen, and
Malva, all in Chiapas; and Strata was awarded Pena Blanca
and Carretas in Nuevo Leon, and Ricos in Tamaulipas.
A Geo Estratos SA de CV consortium from Mexico led
all with four contracts awarded: Ponton, Tecolutla, La Laja,
and Paso De Oro A, B, and C, all in Veracruz.
Next up is the highly anticipated fourth phase, comprising 10 deepwater areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Six of those
exploration blocks reside in the Salina basin and four in
the Perdido fold. CNH says it will announce those awards
during third-quarter 2016 at latest.
Meridian Energy Group Inc., Irvine, Calif., has let a contract to Vepica CA, Caracas, and BASIC Equipment, Houston, to provide preliminary studies for its proposed 55,000b/sd Davis refinery to be built on 620 acres near Belfield,
ND, in the heart of southwestern North Dakotas Bakken
shale region.
As part of the contract, Vepica and BASIC Equipment
will perform a series of engineering studies to define the
design basis, costs, and schedule for the planned high-conversion refinery, which would serve Bakken crude oil producers and local liquid fuels and chemicals markets, the
service companies said.
Upon completion of the studies, the two service providers additionally will work with Meridian to complete
permitting and approval requirements as well as finalize
full-project financing for the refinery, including support
services during the projects detailed design, procurement,
construction, and startup phases.
A value of the contract was not disclosed.
While Vepica and BASIC Equipment did not reveal a
specific timeframe for execution of preliminary studies for
the grassroots refinery, the companies said Meridian recently has undertaken a series of scoping and optimization studies based on crude assays provided by its likely
tolling partners and expects to begin detailed design and
38
160104OGJ_38 38
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
LLC, Boston, that could lead to the restart of terminal assets connected to Hovensa LLCs idled refinery at Limetree
Bay, on the island of St. Croix (OGJ Online, Jan. 18, 2012).
In addition to restarting Hovensas storage terminal operations, which shut down in February 2015 following a
December 2014 vote by the 30th Legislature of the USVI to
quash the companys proposed sale of the refinery to Atlantic Basin Refining Inc. (ABR) (OGJ Online, Nov. 14, 2014),
the agreement also provides for the possibility of resuming
crude processing at the shuttered 500,000-b/d refinery, according to documents and testimony posted to the legislatures website.
Called by USVI Gov. Kenneth Mapp to a special session that began on Dec. 17 following the Dec. 16 end of
regular session, legislators heard additional testimony from
officials representing local government agencies, ArcLight,
LBT, consultants, and area residents on Bill No. 31-0283,
which provides for adoption of the proposed operating
agreement.
The most recurrent hurdle facing the operating agreement during testimony, which lasted through the early
hours of Dec. 22, came down to issues of employment for
USVI residents, more than 2,000 of whom became jobless
following Hovenas 2012 closure of the refinery.
The weakness in this agreement and in the conversations weve had really is the jobsweve lost 2,000 jobs
and were talking about creating 200 jobs, said Sen. Nereida Rivera OReilly, who voted against ABRs 2014 proposal
to take over the Hovensa complex (OGJ Online, Oct. 29,
2014).
Outside of that [however], were looking at an agreement thats probably the best drafted, crafted legal document involving the government of the Virgin Islands in its
history, OReilly said, adding her intention to vote in support of adopting the agreement.
With a commitment from ArcLight that it would revise
language in the proposal to address concerns expressed
by government officials during testimony regarding future economic opportunities and jobs for USVI, the Senate
plans to vote on the final, updated agreement during a session to be held in St.
Thomas before Dec. 31, according to Sen. Kurt A. Vialet.
A specific date of the planned session, however, was not
disclosed.
Operating agreement
The latest operating agreement follows Hovensas deal
to sell the St. Croix terminal assets to LBT as part of the
Chapter 11 Section 363 process under Hovensas voluntary
Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in the US Bankruptcy
160104OGJ_39 39
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12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
40
160104OGJ_40 40
12/29/15 1:43 PM
GENERAL INTEREST
greenhouse gas emissions from the countrys six refineries.
Announced by Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto during a Dec. 8 event held at the 315,000-b/d Miguel
Hidalgo refinery in Tula, Hidalgo state, the investment
program comes as a result of partnerships and alliances
formed by Pemex with private and foreign investors following Mexicos 2014 sweeping energy reform (OGJ Online,
Aug. 21, 2014; Aug. 18, 2014), the state-run company confirmed in a release.
To boost production of ultralow-sulfur gasoline (ULSG),
Pemex will invest a total of $3.1 billion in projects at all
six of its refineries, which upon completion, will result in
a final ULSG output of more than 210,000 b/d and reduce
GHG emissions by 90%, the company said.
At the Miguel Hidalgo refinery, the ULSG investment
consists of a $250 million project that includes installation of a 30,000-b/d desulfurization plant, an amine regenerator, a cooling tower, and ventilation systems for highburning hydrocarbons and acid gas, as well as number of
associated installations.
The company said it also will spend another $3.9 billion
to build 19 plants and modernize 17 existing units at all
six refineries as part of its previously announced plan to
reduce the sulfur content of Mexicos diesel production to
help reduce the countrys need for imports.
Last year, Pemex planned an investment of only $2.8
billion into increasing ultralow-sulfur diesel (ULSD) production at just five of its refineries (OGJ Online, Sept. 15,
2014).
The ULSD project at the Tula refinery, which is scheduled to begin in January 2016, will cost an estimated $770
million, the company said.
In addition to its ULSG and ULSD investments, Pemex
has dedicated another $13 billion to modernization and
expansion projects at three of its refineries, including the
Miguel Hidalgo refinery at Tula, the Antonio M. Amor refinery in Salamanca, Guanajuato, and the Antonio Doval
Jaime refinery in Salina Cruz, Oaxaca.
At a revised total cost of $5 billion, the Tula expansion
and reconfiguration will increase the refinerys crude oil
processing capacity by 25,000 b/d to 340,000 b/d (OGJ
Online, Nov. 18, 2015), Pemex said.
The remaining $3 billion in planned investments will
cover electricity cogeneration projects already under way
at the companys Tula and Salina Cruz refineries, the
275,000-b/d Hector R. Lara Sosa refining complex in Cadereyta, Nueva Leon, and the Cactus gas processing complex in Chiapas state.
Pemex said that, once completed, the $23 billion in
downstream projects would enable a 7 million-tonne/year
reduction in the Mexicos carbon dioxide emissions.
160104OGJ_41 41
41
12/29/15 1:43 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 1
Atlanti c Ocean
20
m
Sho
Demerara
Rise
re l
ine
Liza-1
GMES-1
Sedimentary blanket
Crystalline basement
42
160104ogj_42 42
12/28/15 3:14 PM
FIG. 2
Demerara plateau
Recent activity
Faults lying NNW-SSE of Early Jurassic age were reactivated during the
Cretaceous E-W drift and created favorable Tertiary-to-present structural
and depositional trends of the same direction. These trends privileged southwards migration toward the shore.
Hydrocarbons then traveled along
Guyana
preferential paths to the surface.
Production (16,000 b/d) in this
large equatorial area comes from shallow heavy oil reservoirs onshore Su100 km
riname. More than 25 wells have also
been drilled offshore Suriname and
Florida peninsula
Guyana in an area exceeding 170,000
sq km.1 2 Several on the shelf and in
100 km
shallow water either had noncommercial shows or were positioned offstructure. The most successful well
was the Liza-1 discovery by ExxonMobil Corp. on Stabroek block 120 miles
off Guyana. The 17,835-ft exploration
well was drilled in 5,719 ft of water
and encountered 295 ft of oil-bearing
sandstone reservoirs (OGJ Online,
May 20, 2015).
Seven wells were drilled in a
27,000-sq-km area off the coast of
French Guiana but with generally disappointing results. One exception was
Zaedyus (GM-ES-1) drilled in 2,048 m
of water by Tullow Oil PLC in 2011.
The 5,711-m well encountered 72 m of
oil bearing turbidites at the eastern slope of the Demerara
Plateau (OGJ Online, Sep. 9, 2011).
160104ogj_43 43
Suriname
French Guiana
43
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
CONTINENTAL SHIFT
FIG. 3
North America
North America
AFRICA
AFRICA
F
D
44
160104ogj_44 44
rity initiating much later, at 45-40 million years, and migration is mainly SSE on the tracks of the mapped Cretaceous
and Early Tertiary channels.2
Landsat and Spot optical and radar images detected both
concentrations of oil-slick areas of light oil and high seep
densities in the eastern portion of Surinames offshore and
the western portions of French Guianas.2 Seepage density
distribution is consistent with the following:
Direction of the Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary
channels.
Range of the Aptian top surface that represents the major carrier bed.
Deep NNW-SSE faulting direction detected on gravity
maps.
Distribution of shows in wells.
These features indicate a preferential SSE direction of
migration towards the coast of the larger Guyana equatorial margin. West of the Demerara plateau, an evident correlation exists between the NNW-SSE deep lineaments, oil
shows in the wells, seepage locations at the water surface,
and most likely the onshore production of heavy oil. East
of the Demerara Plateau we note that the wells are located
close to the observed lineaments (Fig. 1). The Late Tertiary
channel system of the margin has a southward direction and
the seepage density is concentrated close to the neck (updip)
rather than the mouth (downdip) of these channels.
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
rie, A., Guerrot, C., Rossi, P., Truffert, C., Theveniaut, H., Phillips, D., and De Avelar, V.G., Transamazonian crustal growth
and reworking as revealed by the 1:500,000-scale geological
map of French Guiana, 2nd edition, Gologie de la France,
No. 2-3-4, 2003.
12. Geological Map of the French Guiana at 1:500,000
scale, BRGM (2003), edition BRGM.
13. Geological Map of Suriname at 1:500 000 scale
(1977): Geologisch Minsbouwkundige Dienst, Amsterdam.
14. Veldkamp, J., Gravity Surveys in Suriname and the
Netherlands Leeward islands area, 1958-1965, Netherlands
Geodetic Commission, Publications on Geodesy, Vol. 3, No. 3,
1969, pp. 1-77.
References
1. International Competitive Bid Round 2013, The
Demerara PlateauAn Exploration Opportunity in Offshore
Suriname, Staatsolie NV Annual Report 2012, Apr. 14, 2013.
2. Suriname, The Next Giant Plateau, Staatsolie NV,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists International
Conference and Exhibition, Singapore, Sept. 16-19, 2012.
3. Sandwell, D.T., Satellite Geodesy, Scripps Institution
of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, topex.
ucsd.edu/marine_topo.
4. Guyet, S., Unternerh, P., and Mascle, A., The French
Guiana margin and theDemerara Plateau: Geological History
and Petroleum Plays, Special Publication of the European
Association of Petroleum Geoscientists, No. 4, 1994, pp.
411-422.
5. Pindell, J. and Dewey, J.F., Permo-Triassic reconstruction of western Pangea and the evolution of the Gulf of
Mexico/Caribbean region, Tectonics, Vol. 1, No. 2, April
1982, pp. 179-211.
6. Pindell, J., Kennan, L., Sanek, K.P., Maresch, W.V., and
Draper, G., Foundations of Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
evolution: Eight controversies resolved, Geologica Acta, Vol.
4, No. 1-2, 2006, pp. 303-341.
7. Greenroyd, C. J., Peirce, C., Rodger, M., Watts, A.B.,
and Hobbs, R.W., Crustal structure of the French Guiana
margin, West Equatorial Atlantic, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 169, No. 3, June 2007, pp. 964987.
8. Greenroyd, C.J., Peirce, C., Rodger, M., Watts, A.B.,
and Hobbs, R.W., Demerara Plateau the structure and
evolution of a transform passive margin, Geophysical Journal
International, Vol. 172, No. 2, February 2008, pp. 549-564.
9. Bird, D., and Burke, K., Pangea breakup: Mexico, Gulf
of Mexico, and Central Atlantic Ocean, expanded abstract,
Society of Exploration Geophysicists, January 2006.
10. Labais, C., Olivet, J.L., Aslanian, D., and Roest, W.,
An alternative early opening scenario for the Central Atlantic
Ocean, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 297, No.
3-4, September 2010, pp. 355-368.
11. Delor, C., Lahondere, D., Egal, E., Lafon, J.M., Coche-
160104ogj_45 45
The author
Yannis Bassias (ybassias@amphorenergy.com) is
president of Amphore Energy Inc., Houston, and
works on frontier exploration areas of the Indian
and Atlantic Oceans. He has also served as president and CEO of Georex from 1997-2012. Before
joining the petroleum industry he was associate
professor in the National Museum of Natural History, Paris. He holds a PhD (1984) from the University Pierre et
Marie Curie, Paris. He is a member of the American Association
of Petroleum Geologists, the Society of Exploration Geophysicists, the Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain, and the
Association of International Petroleum Negotiators.
45
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Zheng Li
Weihe Energy Development Co. Ltd.
Shanxi, China
Ren Luo
Lingping Zeng
46
160104ogj_46 46
Maliuba
Guanyinshi
Luojiazhai
Leixi
Wenxi Carboniferous
Dachuan
Region of interest
Fault
Leiyinpu
Shaguanping
Structure line
County seat
Kaijiang
FIG. 2
Y2 X1 rous Y1
e
bonif
Y3
i Car
0 1
Wenx
X3
km
X4
X6
X5
X7 X8
X12
X2
X10
X1 nping
a
agu 6 0 m X11
Sh
40 m
20
Fault
X9
Wells
History
Yuexichang
Wubaochang
FIG. 1
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 3
Bajiaochang
C
00 Y
,6
-3
-3,600
-3,200
B
0
Y2
-3,600
Wenxi Carboniferous
Y3
km
Y1
B'
-3,200
-3
,6 X3
00
Y - X
X12
X10
X1
-4,400
0 X6
-4,80
0
-5,
00
00
80
0
Y5
X5
-4,800
-4,
-4,4
X4
-5,000
Shauguanping
X7 X8
Y5
X2
00
,4
-4
Y6
Fault
Wedge out
X9
A'
X11
-4,800
Well
A
-4,800
0
-5,00
C'
General geology
Wenxi and Shaguanping gas pools are in Kaijiang and Xuanhan Counties, Sichuan Province, China, and belong to the
Wenquanjing tectonic zone in a median fold, high-dip region in the southeast Sichuan basin (Fig. 1). Wenxi, in the
west of Wenquanjing tectonic zone, is at the junction of Shuangshimiao and the Huaying Mountains in a high-dip tectonic region of eastern Sichuan. The Shaguanping tectonic
zone is a nosing structure in the southwest part of Wenxis
faulted anticline.
After the Caledonian and Yunnan crustal movements, the
Carboniferous stratum was weathered and eroded in a large
area. Only the Middle Carboniferous (Huang formation) remains and appears disconformable in its contact with the
overlying Permian. Well data and regional background have
160104ogj_47 47
Structural relationship
The most important features of a gas reservoir are the unified pressure system and gas-water interface. The pressure
system is a reservoir integration controlled by the same pressure source and the gas-water interface. Each can influence
reservoir fluid to transfer pressure.
Shaguanping Carboniferous gas field has a unified pres-
47
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
X6
RT
GR
X10
5,230
RT
GR
X4
RT
GR
X3
4,420
4,660
5,240
4,670
3,920
4,680
3,930
4,690
3,940
4,700
3,950
4,710
3,960
4,720
3,970
4,730
3,980
4,740
3,990
4,440
4,680
5,260
4,450
4,690
5,270
4,460
4,700
5,280
4,470
4,710
5,290
4,480
4,720
5,300
4,490
Gas-water interface
The Wenxi-Shaguanping Carboniferous gas reservoir is one
of few gas pools in China without produced water. A gas
reservoir is concentrated in the core of Kaijiang-Liangping
palaeohigh. The trap has good characteristics of inheritance
from the previous tectonic evolution, allowing it to easily
form oil and gas reservoirs with high coefficients of fullness.
The Carboniferous well with the lowest bottom elevation
serves as the gas-water interface for this analysis.
Well X6, at the southwest of the Shaguanping structure,
featured the lowest production elevation, with a bottom of
-4,798.72 m. Accordingly, the gas-water interface of the
Wenxi-Shaguanping reservoir should be below -4,800 m. In
addition, making use of the gas water intersection, the data
obtain the gas-water interface elevation of -5,300 m. So the
160104ogj_48 48
Y2
RT
GR
Y4
RT
4,250
4,260
4,270
Reservoir bed
4,280
H1 member
4,290
4,300
H2 member
H3 member
Silurian
4,310
4,750
48
GR
4,670
4,430
5,250
RT
FIG. 4
gas-water interface of the unified Wenxi-Shaguanping Carboniferous gas reservoir should be -4,800-5,300 m.
The average of the two methods produces a gas-water interface of -5,050 m (Fig. 6), lower than previously speculated. This interface provides a 180-sq km gas-bearing area
in Wenxi-Shaguanping.
Reservoir connectivity
Connectivity is an important parameter for hydrocarbon
reservoirs, providing the basis for communication between
wells. Carboniferous reservoirs mainly contain arenite dolomite rock and silty-fine breccioid dolomite. Reservoir space
is primarily intragranular, intergranular dissolved pores,
and moldic pores, with some caves. Longitudinally, the Carboniferous is developed in upper and lower reservoir sections. The thickness of the lower reservoira debris-beach
facies reservoiris the largest. This lower section has better
properties and is the main production layer of the Carboniferous system.
Taking 2% as the lower limit of effective reservoir porosity yields a single-well log interpretation accumulative
thickness of 22-27 m and stable transverse contrast (Fig. 4).
The upper reservoir section is developed in the Huanglong
formations third member. The reservoir consists mainly of
caves and fissures caused by karst and tectonic movements.
Carboniferous reservoirs are primarily fracture and cavetype. Longitudinally, the reservoir is thin, with a short lateral-extended distance.
The Wenxi area features developed faulted structures and
strongly folded local strata. The reservoirs fracture extension direction and tectonic axis are basically the same. A
large number of fissures associated with fractures help in
vertical and horizontal communication. The log interpretation for Wells Y1 and Y4, for example, shows that the reservoir section is fractured, and corresponding core-count
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Subsea depth, m
Pressure analysis
Gas component
The acid content of natural gas can also be used as a basis for
judging connectivity, especially when formation pressure is
insufficient to provide evidence. Analysis of the CO2 content
in more than 30 wells in both fields showed a 0.8-1.46%
concentration in Wenxi and 0.38-1.85% in Shaguanping,
demonstrating similarity between the two regions.
Analyses of static and dynamic factors confirm that Carboniferous gas traps in Wenxi and Shaguanping are interrelated and have reservoir connectivity. Pressure coefficients,
reduced pressures, and CO2 content are also similar in the
two areas, suggesting that the two Carboniferous reservoirs
are connected with the same pressure system and same gaswater interface.
The Wenxi-Shaguanping collective reservoir has an overflow point between Tanmuchang and Shaguanping. The
160104ogj_49 49
49
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 6
Bibliography
A'
Depth, m
-3,500
50
160104ogj_50 50
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
The authors
To make membership in the Association a reasonable assurance to the public of the skill, integrity and responsibility of its
members.
(b)
(c)
To promote more cordial and cooperative relations among pipeline contractors and between pipeline contractors and those
(d)
To seek correction of injurious, discriminatory or unfair business methods practiced by or against pipeline contractors.
(f)
www.plca.org
1700 Pacific Avenue, Suite 4100 Dallas, Texas 75201 Ph: 214.969.2700 Fax: 214.969.2705
160104ogj_51 51
51
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Feng Zhou
Sinopec Southwest Oil & Gas Co.
Chengdu
Ye Zhang
Chongqing Institute of Geology
and Mineral Resources
Chongqing
Network fracturing horizontal wells is efficient at the beginning of production but its advantage over multi-stage fracturing diminishes over time.
Core holder
Valve
Tube
Oil container
Valve
Injection pump
52
160104ogj_52 52
Confining-pressure
pump
12/28/15 3:14 PM
Relative permeability
160104ogj_53 53
53
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 3
0.30
X-4
X-4
X-5
X-5
X-6
X-6
0.25
Permeability*
0.20
stress
stress
stress
stress
stress
stress
increase
decrease
increase
decrease
increase
decrease
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Relative-permeability curves
FIG. 4
1.00
X-4
X-5
X-6
0.90
0.80
Permeability*
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
10
20
30
Effective stress, MPa
40
50
60
FIG. 5
0.5
X-7
0.4
X-8
X-9
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
20
40
60
80
54
160104ogj_54 54
100
120
140
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 6
Vertical well
S = 0.02
Fractured vertical
S = 0.55
Horizontal well
S = 0.51
Fractured horizontal
S = 0.95
*S stands for corresponding drainage area in sq km, calculated by counting grid numbers to which pressure drop has been propagated.
Permeability, md
Table 2
Equal-permeability
point, md
Water saturation, %
Oil saturation, %
Permeability at
oil saturation, %
Displacement
efficiency, %
Wettability
X-1
0.12
0.63
0.41669
0.2351
0.1114
0.5627
Water-wetting
X-2
0.21
0.61
0.40570
0.2242
0.1169
0.5896
Water-wetting
X-3
0.26
0.61
0.39600
0.2140
0.1361
0.5993
Water-wetting
Pressure-sensitivity analysis
Pressure sensitivity is an important feature of any tight oil reservoir because it affects fluid flow and overall oil production.
Fig. 3 illustrates the pressure-sensitivity analysis of three Well
Shun-9 cores (X-4, X-5, X-6) using nitrogen as the gas medium.
To determine pressure sensitivity, we began with a confining pressure of 3 MPa and a corresponding effective stress of
2.8 MPa. For convenience, the confining pressure was taken
as equal to the effective stress, despite the 0.2 MPa difference.
The upper effective-stress value was set at 50 MPa to simulate
formation pressure of 74.2 MPa.
Fig. 3 shows the relationship of the cores gas permeability
with effective stress. At the beginning, permeability decreases
quickly with increasing effective stress, but the drop slows after
30 MPa. Permeability at an effective stress of 50 MPa can decrease to as little as one-tenth of the original permeability. Compression began in pore throats rather than pore bodies and the
permeability decrease was subject mainly to throat constraints.8
After effective stress dropped to a certain value, the shrinking of
the openings in the rock reached its minimum and the decrease
of permeability became equal to overall well-decline rate.
160104ogj_55 55
55
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Table 3
5,500
Reservoir thickness, m
12
74.2
Porosity, %
6.14
Permeability, md
0.18
0.8027
1.9559
1.15
Surface temperature, C.
27
2.25
22,620
A numerical simulator modelled Well Shun-9 fractures. Reservoir properties, black-oil PVT tables, and relative permeability
curves were analyzed and put into the model, with non-Darcy
effects taken into account. Table 3 describes the simulations
reservoir parameters
The model places one production well in the center of a
3,240 m 2,040 m block. For a vertical well, the wellbore is in the middle of
the block, and for a horizontal well, the
FIG. 7
horizontal section is evenly distributed
along the model center.
Fractures modeling used narrow,
high-permeability grids, with grid transmissibility equal to fracture conductivity. The grids were gradually refined toYears
ward the wellbore to avoid convergence
1
problems.
Explicitly building the fracture into
3
the model allows calculation of the matrix-to-fracture flow for each step in each
grid block. The fracture geometry, direction, and connectivity with the wellbore
are modeled based on fracture design
and geo-mechanical studies from the oil
field.
The fractures impact appears only as
a modification to the productivity of the
well without any representation of the physical matrix-fracture
interaction. There is no quantification of geological heterogeneitys effect.
The data used in the simulation model came from field operators or were generated in the laboratory. Relative permeability data were used because of Well Shun-9s high initial water
saturation.
The fracture-design simulator estimated average fracture
width and conductivity. We established fracture parameters for
each completion method tested that included horizontal section
length, flow conductivity, length of intervals between fractures,
half-fracture length, number of stages, and for network fracturing, the scale.
-1
10,400
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Network fractured
horizontal well
Multistage fractured
horizontal well
Threshold-pressure gradient
Fig. 5 shows the linear relationship between flow rate and formation pressures. The curves, however, do not pass through
the original of the coordinates, a feature of non-Darcy flow.
The regression line meets the x-axis and the intercept is
threshold pressure. The threshold-pressure gradient can be calculated using threshold pressure divided by the length of each
core and it increases as the permeability of rock decreases.
When the permeability of the cores increases to 0.23 md
(Core X-8) and 0.31 md (Core X-9) from 0.14 md (Core X-7),
threshold pressure decreases to 0.31 MPa/m and 0.20 MPa/m,
respectively, from 0.66 MPa/m.
The average threshold pressure gradient is 0.32 MPa/m for
the cores examined, which is high compared with conventional
reservoirs.
A high threshold-pressure gradient requires reasonable wellbottom flow pressure for oil to flow into the wellbore. Lowering the well-bottom flow pressure increases oil production
56
160104ogj_56 56
Non-Darcy effects
Flow in porous media follows Darcys law when it is laminar.
In tight oil reservoirs, however, flow deviates from Darcys
law due to the threshold-pressure gradient.
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Table 4
1 month
3 months
1 year
3 years
0.40
0.37
0.36
0.34
11.22
6.81
4.50
25.55
9.52
5.72
7.36
5.69
37.49
38.32
Vertical well
Horizontal well
Cumulative production, cu m
1 months
3 months
12.88
46.63
1 year
135.43
3 year
378.59
3.24
462.43
1,162.51
2,436.70
5,002.63
3.95
1,142.20
2,315.37
3,999.52
7,175.20
4.30
3.22
247.92
792.83
1,963.50
4,487.56
13.58
6.85
4.60
1,771.91
3,475.68
5,535.22
9,282.21
14.60
7.36
5.00
3,344.42
4,690.77
6,826.73
10,881.92
160104ogj_57 57
57
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TECHNOLOGY
oping Tight-Gas Sands, Chapter 5: Issues with Gas Relative
Permeability in Low-Permeability Sandstones, the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists Hedberg Series, No. 3,
2008, pp. 63-76.
6. Cluff, R.M., and Byrnes, A.P., Relative Permeability
in Tight Gas Sandstone Reservoirs: The Permeability Jail
Model, SPWLA 51st Annual Logging Symposium, Perth, June
19-23, 2010.
7. Khan, W.A., Rehman, S.A., Akram, A.H., and Ahmad,
A., Factors affecting production behavior in tight gas reservoirs, SPE/DGS Saudi Arabia Section Technical Symposium
and Exhibition, Al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia, May 15-18, 2011.
8. Lei, Q., Xiong, W., Yuan, J., Cui, Y., and Wu, Y.S.,
Analysis of stress sensitivity and its influence on oil production from tight reservoirs, SPE Eastern Regional Meeting,
Lexington, Ky., Oct. 17-19, 2007.
9. Dake, L.P., Fundamentals of Reservoir Engineering,
17th edition, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1998.
The authors
Xiuyu Wang (wangxiuyu7@139.com) is an
associate professor at the China University of
Petroleum, Beijing. She holds a Ph.D from the
University of Wyoming, Laramie, and is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Feng Zhou is an engineer for Sinopecs Southwest Oil & Gas Co. He holds an MS in petroleum
engineering from the China University of Petroleum, Beijing.
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160104ogj_59 59
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TECHNOLOGY
DRILLING &
PRODUCTION
Variable-frequency drives (VFDs), allow a much wider operating range on selected electric submersible pump (ESP)
equipment than might otherwise be possible. This can be
beneficial when an ESP is installed in
a new well where the production range
ESP STAGES, HOUSING
is uncertain.
While a pumpjack-operated well is
complex and requires massive equipment, the daily volume of oil or fluids
produced from the well can be easily calculated. Conversely, an electric
submersible pump (ESP) is a simple
device, but its behavior is complex because production volumes are a function of rotational speed and fluid head.
This article provides guidelines for
how to design and size an ESP for new
wells, removing some complexity and
the misperceptions that can accompany it. The article is based on Warren
E&P Inc.s experiences in its California
wells. It is not intended to address very
high viscosity wells, high gas-oil-ratio
(GOR) production, or high temperature-ultra deep wells.
FIG. 1
ESP Systems
Fig. 1 shows an ESP system with a discharge head, pump, intake, seal assembly, a motor connected to the pump by
a long shaft, and a downhole sensor.
60
160104ogj_60 60
Radial
Mixed
Separator
Seal
Motor
Sensor
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
The diffuser directs fluid to the next
impeller and does not rotate. Pump efficiency and head generation is a function of the diameter of the impeller
and the rate of rotation. The smaller
the diameter of the impeller, the less
head generated, which results in more
stages and longer pumps to raise fluid
from the reservoir to the surface.
California operators typically use
ESPs designed for about 100-5,000
barrels of fluid per day (bf/d). Pump
stages can be classified as either radial,
mixed, or hybrid flow. Produced fluids
usually have entrained gas. While the
GOR may be 80-500 scf/bbl, the gasliquid ratio may only be 20-30 scf/bbl.
Oil produced by ESP can be 8-18 API.
FIG. 2
Radial, mixed-stage
160104ogj_61 61
Efficiency, %
Power, hp
Head depth, ft
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 4
5
7
62
160104ogj_62 62
12/28/15 3:14 PM
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160104ogj_63 63
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
PUMP CURVES
Flex 17.5, 205 stages
8,000
70 hz
7,000
55 hz
4,000
50 hz
3,000
45 hz
40 hz
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
0
500
500
7,000
65 h
z
6,000
60 h
z
5,000
55 h
z
FIG. 5c
3,000
FIG. 5d
65 h
z
60 h
5,000
50 h
48 hz
45 hz
z
40 h
z
4,000
6,000
Head depth, ft
Head depth, ft
FIG. 5b
40.0
h
42.5 z
hz
45.0
h
47.5 z
h
50.0 z
52.5 hz
h
55.0 hz
57.5 hz
60.0 hzz
6,000
60 hz
5,000
7,000
65 h
z
6,000
Head depth, ft
FIG. 5a
Head depth, ft
8,000
FIG. 5
60 h
z
4,000
55 h
z
3,000
50 h
z
2,000
45 h
z
40 h
z
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
0
0
500
ESP run times exceeding 84 months on many wells and generally reaching 60-72 months.
Pump design
Warren uses three standardized pump designs. The first is
for tar formations found at 2,600-2,700 ft total vertical depth
(TVD). The best solution for these formations is a pancakeradial pump, however, the thick initial production of oil-water emulsion precludes running the more efficient pump. A
mixed-flow pump, therefore, is installed even though, later,
water will become the predominant phase.
The Ranger and Upper Terminal formations, from 3,0003,600 ft TVD, typically use a mixed flow pump because of
the wide range of gross-fluid production and the production of fine particulates. Production is as much as 3,500 bf/d
from horizontal wells 250 ft apart, depending on formation
64
160104ogj_64 64
500
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
160104ogj_65 65
FIG. 6
65
Frequncy, hz
60
55
50
Flex 17.5, 205 stages
DN 1750, 202 stages
TD 1750, 223 stages
DN 1750, 156 stages
45
40
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
FIG. 7
FIG. 7a
65
D800N, 216 stages
DN1750, 279 stages
60
Frequency, hz
55
45
40
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
FIG. 7b
120
D800N, 216 stages
DN1750, 279 stages
Motor limitation 71.4 hp
100
80
hp
Applications
60
40
20
0
0
200
400
600
800
Fluid production, b/d
1,000
1,200
65
12/28/15 3:14 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Mixed flow
Frequency
TD1750
223 stages
TD 1750
Rate
Mixed flow
Frequency
Table 2
DN1750
158 stages
DN1750
202 stages
DN1750
Rate
DN1750
Rate
Mixed flow
Frequency
Mixed flow
Frequency
100
43.5
250
41.9
200
47.1
100
41.6
200
43.8
500
42.6
500
49.8
200
42.3
500
45.2
750
43.9
700
51.3
500
44.7
1,000
48.0
1,000
45.1
1,000
53.5
1,000
47.9
1,500
52.5
1,500
49.8
1,500
57.4
1,500
52.4
2,000
58.2
2,000
56.6
2,000
62.8
2,000
58.5
2,500
65.3
2,500
66.0
110.1 bf/d/hz
118.6 bf/d/hz
114.5 bf/d/hz
The authors
98.4 bf/d/hz
Maximum horsepower
A third example illustrates how to determine maximum
horsepower needed to achieve optimal flow.
Example 3. A supplier had the option of running a
pump in a well with potential production of 100-800 bf/d.
The curves for two different pump types were analyzed and
plotted.
Fig. 7 shows how each pump performed relative to frequency. The first frequency-rate plot shows how sensitive an
ESP pumping rate is to frequency changes. The 279-stage
pump is too difficult to control, with greater potential fluidvolume changes at smaller frequency changes.
The second HP-rate plot shows the horsepower required
at any given rate and the frequency associated with that
horsepower. If the pump is limited by horsepower constraints (as it was in this design) the maximum fluid rate
becomes apparent and redesign might be called for.
Acknowledgments
Manuscripts welcome
Oil & Gas Journal editors are happy to consider for
publication manuscripts about exploration and development, drilling, production, pipelines, LNG, and
processing (refining, gas processing, and basic petrochemicals). These papers may be highly technical in
nature and appeal or they may analyze oil and natural
gas supply, demand, and markets. OGJ accepts manuscripts submitted exclusively to it or those adapted
from oral and poster presentations. An Author Guide
is available at www.ogj.com; click Home, then Submit an article. Or, contact Managing EditorTechnology (chriss@ogjonline.com; 713/963-6211; or, fax
713/963-6282), Oil & Gas Journal, 1455 West Loop
South, Suite 400, Houston TX 77027 USA.
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12/28/15 3:14 PM
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160104ogj_67 67
FIND US!
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TECHNOLOGY
Feed-monitoring strategy
improves hydrotreater reliability
Jason Wiens
Craig McKnight
Andre Taguinod
Wayne Schiewe
Syncrude Canada Ltd.
Extraction,
froth treatment
plant
Sour gas
Fluid coker,
three units
Diluent,
whole
Diluent
bitumen
Coke
Diluent recovery,
three units
Atmospheric
topped Vacuum
bitumen
LGO
Naphtha
hydrotreater,
two units
FIG. 1
Amine,
sulfur
plants
Sulfur
H2
Virgin LGO
LC-Finer,
one unit
Syncrude
Sweet
Premium
H2
Bottoms
H2
Vacuum
distillation,
one unit
Vacuum
topped
bitumen
Natural gas
Hydrogen plant,
four units
Syncrudes processes
Syncrudes production of Syncrude
Sweet Premium (SSP) crude oil from
western Canadian oil sands involves a
series of processes, including mining,
extraction, froth treatment, upgrading,
secondary upgrading, and blending.
After its separation from sand during the extraction and froth treatment
stages, resulting bitumen moves to the
upgrader for primary conversion. The
upgrader features three fluid coking
68
160104ogj_68 68
12/28/15 3:15 PM
The 2011 cleaning of consecutive bundles of heat exchangers from an ASU preheat train revealed a peculiar trend: in all cases, the
first heat exchanger in the series of three was spotlessly clean, while the second and third exchangers were heavily fouled (Fig. 3).
units and one LC-Fining hydrocracking unit. Once the bitumens naturally occurring LGO component and diluent
naphtha have been recovered, these streams go to secondary upgrading units, which include two heavy gas oil hydrotreaters, two LGO hydrotreaters, and two naphtha hydrotreaters.
The two LGO hydrotreaters, however, differ in terms of
both feed and function. One unit features single-stage hydrotreating and mainly is used for hydrodenitrification
(HDN) and hydrodesulfurization (HDS) of virgin LGO and
vacuum LGO feed.
The second hydrotreater, or the aromatics saturation unit
(ASU), works in two stages. The first stage primarily involves
HDS and HDN, with the second stage designed to maximize
aromatics saturation. This hydrotreater receives a feed blend
of coker, LC-Finer, treated, and vacuum LGO.
Fig. 1 shows the configuration of Syncrudes extraction
and upgrading operations.
Unplanned outages
Syncrudes ASU completed its inaugural 3-year operational
run from September 2006 to April 2009 without interruptions. After months 9 and 17 during its second operating
cycle, the ASU began to exhibit large drops in first-stage bed
pressure that required feed outages.
To alleviate pressure drop, Syncrude performed skims of
the top catalyst bed. Subsequent analysis of the bed samples
showed that the deposition of popcorn coke formed by polymerization of diolefins led to the pressure drop.
A variety of operating conditions can favor the formation
of popcorn coke.1 Temperatures in the 232-324 C. range
are required for the polymerization reaction to occur. At
temperatures below this range, the polymerization reaction takes place too slowly to cause fouling. At temperatures
160104ogj_69 69
SYNCRUDE UPGRADING
UNITS; AVERAGE DIENE NUMBER
Table 1
Naphtha
LGO
Fluid Coker 1
14.4
6.1
Fluid Coker 2
10.6
5.7
Fluid Coker 3
16.1
7.7
1.8
n/a
0.7
LC-Finer
Vacuum distillation
unit
69
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
EQUATIONS
N D,corr = 0.151 * N br,meas
N D,thresh - 2v D
N br,meas,thresh =
0.151
N D,corr = 0.055 * %KLGO + 1.61
(1)
(4)
2v KLGO = 95% confidence interval in the %KLGO correlated diene number correlationexcluding
(2)
(3)
(5)
Nomenclature
of polymerization, gI/100g
Correction
bromine number, while the second relates fouling potential to KLGO content.
A previous version of this table appeared in the Dec. 7, 2015, issue of Oil &
Gas Journal. This is the correct version.
Fouling mechanism
1962
Pumps, compressors, etc.
222.5
Electrical machinery
189.5
Internal-comb. engines
183.4
Instruments
214.8
Heat exchangers
183.6
Misc. equip. average
198.8
Materials component
205.9
Labor component
258.8
Refinery (inflation) index
237.6
1980
2012
2013
2014
Aug.
2014
July
2015
Aug.
2015
777.3
2,170.6
2,221.1
2,271.9
2,269.9
2,307.7
2,316.2
394.7
514.8
516.7
515.8
515.5
517.3
516.4
512.6
1,047.0
1,046.8
1,052.9
1,055.9
1,061.5
1,063.4
587.3
1,477.0
1,509.9
1,533.6
1,538.7
1,555.9
1,561.1
618.7
1,220.9
1,293.3
1,305.0
1,305.0
1,305.0
1,305.0
578.1
1,286.1
1,317.5
1,335.8
1,337.0
1,349.5
1,352.4
629.2
1,579.7
1,538.7
1,571.8
1,577.0
1,445.6
1,423.0
951.9
3,055.6
3,123.4
3,210.7
3,219.1
3,298.1
3,299.6
822.8
2,465.2
2,489.5
2,555.2
2,562.3
2,557.1
2,548.9
July
2015
Aug.
2015
1962
1980
2012
2013
2014
Aug.
2014
100.9
810.5
968.1
1,123.7
1,264.8
1,148.3
934.0
944.8
93.9
200.5
287.9
308.3
312.8
298.8
309.5
310.2
123.9
439.9
1,407.5
1,506.4
1,541.3
1,505.0
1,543.4
1,562.3
131.8
Invest., maint., etc.
121.7
Chemical costs
96.7
Operating indexes2
226.3
489.4
489.1
493.1
503.6
498.6
503.6
324.8
896.5
905.3
939.4
942.0
950.6
947.6
229.2
517.2
502.6
472.3
476.1
443.8
446.1
Fuel cost
Labor cost
Wages
Productivity
Refinery
103.7
Process units
103.6
312.7
637.5
661.8
688.5
674.2
659.9
660.0
457.5
739.0
802.6
865.3
821.3
752.5
755.4
These indexes are published in the first of each month and are compiled by Gary Farrar, OGJ Contributing Editor.
Add separate index(es) for chemicals, if any are used. Indexes of selected individual items of equipment and materials are
also published on the Quarterly Costimating page in first issues for January, April, July, and October.
2
70
160104ogj_70 70
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
DIENE-BROMINE RATIO
FIG. 4
20
Fluid coker naphtha-LGO
LC-Finer LGO
Vacuum LGO
15
Diene, wt%
sistent with the threshold temperature range for popcorn coke formation
(232-324 C.),1 confirming the investigation teams conclusion that fouling was a result of popcorn coke. Data
showed that popcorn coke was formed
in the heat exchangers, where it eventually spalled off and was entrained
into the catalyst bed.
95% confidence
10
Sampling
Syncrude continued to collect weekly
samples of LGO from its fluid cokers
(FLK), LC-Finer, and vacuum distillation unit (VDU), as well as naphtha from the FLKs. All samples were
nitrogen-blanketed, and exposure to
sunlight was avoided.
Alberta Innovates, Edmonton,
Alta., analyzed the samples diene
(performed by UOP-326-82) and bromine (performed by ASTM D-1159)
content.
0
0
20
160104ogj_71 71
60
Bromine, wt%
80
100
120
1962
40
1980
2012
2013
2014
Sept.
2014
Aug.
2015
Sept.
2015
777.3
2,170.6
2,221.1
2,271.9
2,276.5
2,316.2
2,315.2
394.7
514.8
516.7
515.8
515.9
516.4
515.5
512.6
1,047.0
1,046.8
1,052.9
1,055.9
1,063.4
1,062.8
587.3
1,477.0
1,509.9
1,533.6
1,536.1
1,561.1
1,563.8
618.7
1,220.9
1,293.3
1,305.0
1,305.0
1,305.0
1,305.0
578.1
1,286.1
1,317.5
1,335.8
1,337.9
1,352.4
1,352.5
629.2
1,579.7
1,538.7
1,571.8
1,582.0
1,423.0
1,414.5
951.9
3,055.6
3,123.4
3,210.7
3,228.3
3,299.6
3,312.0
822.8
2,465.2
2,489.5
2,555.2
2,569.8
2,548.9
2,553.0
2012
2013
2014
Sept.
2014
Aug.
2015
Sept.
2015
1962
1980
100.9
810.5
968.1
1,123.7
1,264.8
1,177.1
944.8
906.5
93.9
200.5
287.9
308.3
312.8
301.3
310.2
330.0
123.9
439.9
1,407.5
1,506.4
1,541.3
1,507.3
1,562.3
1,619.4
131.8
Invest., maint., etc.
121.7
Chemical costs
96.7
Operating indexes2
226.3
489.4
489.1
493.1
500.2
503.6
490.8
Fuel cost
Labor cost
Wages
Productivity
Refinery
103.7
Process units
103.6
324.8
896.5
905.3
939.4
944.8
947.6
949.1
229.2
517.2
502.6
472.3
480.4
446.1
429.4
312.7
637.5
661.8
688.5
679.4
660.0
663.2
457.5
739.0
802.6
865.3
833.1
755.4
748.4
These indexes are published in the first of each month and are compiled by Gary Farrar, OGJ Contributing Editor.
Add separate index(es) for chemicals, if any are used. Indexes of selected individual items of equipment and materials are
also published on the Quarterly Costimating page in first issues for January, April, July, and October.
2
71
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 5
80
7
KLGO content
Diene no.
KLGO, wt%
60
5
4
40
3
2
20
1
0
August 2010
0
August 2012
August 2011
FIG. 6
8
95% confidence
Equation 5
Diene, wt%
2
95% confidence,
Equation 1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
KLGO, wt%
72
160104ogj_72 72
KLGO content-to-fouling
The correlated diene number (obtained
from Equation 1) and the KLGO content in the hydrotreater feed are generally well correlated (Fig. 5).
Fig. 6 presents the relationship between the correlated diene number
and the KLGO content in the ASU
feed. Equation 3 crudely describes this
relationship. Syncrude determined the
uncertainty in the fit of this correlation
to the correlated diene number to be
2KLGO = 1.8 g I/100 g, showing that
correlating the diene number solely to
the KLGO content in the hydrotreater
feed is an oversimplification. The correlation, for instance, assumes the content of LC-Finer LGO is constant in the
feed, as it has a different diene number
than virgin LGO. Syncrude also noted
that the correlation does not account
for the effect of feed distillation on the
FLKs, which can have a substantial
impact on diene content.
But because the correlation in
Equation 2 encompasses an extended
operating historymore than 2 years
of operating datathese variations in
plant operation would be accounted
for in the calculated uncertainty.
A simple combination of uncertainties determines the statistical limit on
KLGO blending. The uncertainty in
the relationship established by Equation 2 is a composite of two individual
uncertainties: the uncertainty in the
correlation between the historical hydrotreater diene number data and the
percentage of KLGO used in blending
Plant 18-2 feed (Equation 2), and the
uncertainty in Equation 1 used to correlate the diene number from the measured bromine number.
Equation 4 combines these uncertainties.
From Equation 4, a combined total uncertainty of 2corr=2.7 g I/100 g.
(95% confidence interval) is calculated
for correlating the diene number from
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 7
120
Run 2
Run 3
100
Skim
The authors
80
Skim
60
40
20
0
June 2009
June 2010
June 2011
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
* Syncrude alleviated pressure drop excursions during Run 2 by performing bed skims.
Implementation
As part of Syncrudes production plan,
the maximum KLGO content in the
feed (Equation 5) is targeted, while the
maximum measured bromine number
of the feed (Equation 2) is an absolute
limit.
Fig. 7 presents the pressure drop
across the top bed of the ASU for the
operating cycles before and after im-
160104ogj_73 73
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Peter Ronan, Sherry
Noyes, and John Adjaye for their assistance in this work.
References
1. Wiehe, I.A., Mitigation of the
fouling by popcorn coke, Petroleum
73
12/28/15 3:15 PM
e l s o N
-F
a r r a r
u a r t e r l y
Materials Labor
compo- component
nent
1926
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
87.7
93.2
83.2
76.0
72.2
68.0
68.3
73.5
74.3
78.2
86.7
84.7
82.0
82.2
84.5
86.2
86.7
87.6
89.7
100.0
122.4
139.5
143.6
149.5
164.0
164.3
172.4
174.6
176.1
190.4
61.5
64.5
64.5
66.5
60.0
49.0
49.0
55.5
55.0
60.0
66.5
71.5
73.0
74.5
77.0
82.0
86.5
88.5
90.0
100.0
113.5
128.0
137.1
144.0
152.5
163.1
174.2
183.3
189.6
198.2
Misc.
equipment
94.0
89.0
87.0
84.0
82.0
79.0
76.0
74.0
76.0
77.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
100.0
114.2
122.1
121.6
126.2
145.0
153.1
158.8
160.7
161.5
180.5
NelsonFarrar
inflation
index
Date
72.0
71.0
72.0
70.3
64.9
56.6
56.7
62.7
62.7
67.3
74.6
76.8
76.6
77.6
80.0
83.7
86.6
88.1
89.9
100.0
117.0
132.5
139.7
146.2
157.2
163.6
173.5
179.8
184.2
195.3
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Materials
component
201.9
204.1
207.8
207.6
207.7
205.9
206.3
209.6
212.0
216.2
219.7
224.1
234.9
250.5
265.2
277.8
292.3
373.3
421.0
445.2
471.3
516.7
573.1
629.2
693.2
707.6
712.4
735.3
739.6
730.0
Labor
component
208.6
220.4
231.6
241.9
249.4
258.8
268.4
280.5
294.4
310.9
331.3
357.4
391.8
441.1
499.9
545.6
585.2
623.6
678.5
729.4
774.1
824.1
879.0
951.9
1,044.2
1,154.2
1,234.8
1,278.1
1,297.6
1,330.0
Misc.
equipment
192.1
192.4
196.1
200.0
199.5
198.8
201.4
206.8
211.6
220.9
226.1
228.8
239.3
254.3
268.7
278.0
291.4
361.8
415.9
423.8
438.2
474.1
515.4
578.1
647.9
662.8
656.8
665.6
673.4
684.4
NelsonFarrar
inflation
index
205.9
213.9
222.1
228.1
232.7
237.6
243.6
252.1
261.4
273.0
266.7
304.1
329.0
364.9
406.0
438.5
468.0
522.7
575.5
615.7
653.0
701.1
756.6
822.8
903.8
976.9
1,025.8
1,061.0
1,074.4
1,089.9
Date
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Materials
component
748.9
802.8
829.2
832.8
832.3
824.6
846.7
877.2
918.0
917.1
923.9
917.5
883.5
896.1
877.7
899.7
933.8
1,112.7
1,179.8
1,273.5
1,364.8
1,572.0
1,324.8
1,480.1
1,610.5
1,579.7
1,538.7
1,571.8
Labor
component
1,370.0
1,405.6
1,440.4
1,487.7
1,533.3
1,579.2
1,620.2
1,664.7
1,708.1
1,753.5
1,799.5
1,851.0
1,906.3
1,973.7
2,047.7
2,137.2
2,228.1
2,314.2
2,411.6
2,497.8
2,601.4
2,704.3
2,813.0
2,909.3
2,985.6
3,055.6
3,123.4
3,210.7
Misc.
equipment
703.1
732.5
769.9
797.5
827.5
837.6
842.8
851.1
879.5
903.5
910.5
933.2
920.3
917.8
939.3
951.3
956.7
993.8
1,062.1
1,113.3
1,189.3
1,230.6
1,239.7
1,224.7
1,256.4
1,286.1
1,317.5
1,335.8
NelsonFarrar
inflation
index
1,121.5
1,164.5
1,195.9
1,225.7
1,252.9
1,277.3
1,310.8
1,349.7
1,392.1
1,418.9
1,449.2
1,477.6
1,497.2
1,542.7
1,579.7
1,642.2
1,710.4
1,833.6
1,918.8
2,008.1
2,106.7
2,251.4
2,217.7
2,337.6
2,435.6
2,465.2
2,489.5
2,555.2
Farrar refinery inflation cost index since that was the date of index inception. Val1926.
ues from 1926 to 1945 were back calcuThey are based on 1946 as 100, since lated.
The cost indexes may be used to convert prices at any date to prices at other dates by ratios to the cost indexes of the same
date. Item indexes are published each quarter (first week issue of January, April, July, and October). In addition the Nelson
Construction and Operating Cost Indexes are published in the first issue of each month of Oil & Gas Journal.
*References
Code 0543
OGJ
OGJ
OGJ
OGJ
OGJ
OGJ
Code 531-10-1
Code 613
Code 613-0222
Code 613-0281
Code 1022-02-73
Code 613-01-03
Code 613-01-04
Code 613-0267
Code 614
Chemical Marketing
Operating cost
(based on 1956 = 100.)
1954
1972
2012
2013
2014
Aug.
2015
98.5
85.5
85.0
82.6
84.3
60.2
83.5
96.0
95.5
100.0
92.9
90.9
95.5
97.4
100.0
94.5
131.2
152.0
130.4
169.6
168.1
128.1
190.3
123.1
144.4
140.7
121.1
119.4
136.2
107.0
87.4
137.5
1,042.4
923.8
3,403.2
3,460.4
3,238.2
4,176.7
3,368.3
2,499.5
1,215.3
414.9
439.1
1,224.5
800.8
1,097.6
844.2
1,048.9
1,513.7
1,008.5
1,064.2
3,403.2
3,460.4
3,238.2
4,176.7
3,368.3
3,189.3
1,138.7
414.9
439.1
1,153.0
750.3
1,028.4
844.2
1,037.0
1,496.5
1,077.8
1,211.5
3,403.2
3,460.4
3,238.2
4,176.7
3,368.3
3,912.8
1,083.7
414.9
439.1
1,098.4
714.0
978.6
844.2
1,002.4
1,446.5
1,173.9
899.1
3,403.2
3,460.4
3,238.2
4,176.7
3,368.3
2,378.4
1,077.1
414.9
439.1
928.8
709.5
972.6
844.2
832.3
1,201.1
82.6
87.5
625.0
625.0
625.0
625.0
Reporter
Phenol
90.4
47.1
500.3
500.3
500.3
500.3
Code 614-0241
74
160104ogj_74 74
12/28/15 3:15 PM
o s t i m a t i N g
I TEMIZED REFINING COST INDEXES
*References
1,562.3
503.6
2,866.3
3,848.5
3,210.7
2,950.6
3,947.7
3,299.6
1,780.7
1,169.8
1,342.5
2,072.6
1,728.2
952.5
1,305.4
1,046.5
516.7
1,107.4
1,395.8
798.0
1,046.8
1,293.3
1,171.5
1,310.4
1,294.2
1,421.5
2,080.4
1,509.9
1,951.1
1,379.9
999.5
2,059.5
1,827.1
1,204.8
1,375.6
2,077.9
1,743.1
963.2
1,360.7
1,086.9
515.8
1,125.3
1,400.6
798.2
1,052.9
1,305.0
1,178.5
1,320.9
1,312.7
1,457.9
2,099.7
1,533.6
2,014.9
1,489.7
1,025.0
2,112.1
1,764.0
1,235.6
1,404.7
2,111.9
1,729.4
985.7
1,430.4
1,129.4
516.4
1,123.7
1,395.8
756.4
1,063.4
1,305.0
1,178.5
1,320.9
1,312.7
1,445.7
2,099.2
1,561.1
2,083.9
1,363.4
955.8
1,970.2
Computed
Code 13
Code 1342
Code 135
Code 1015
Code 134
Code 132
Code 133
Code 117
Code 1173
Code 1175
Code 1174
Code 1194
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Computed
Code 1042
Computed
Manufacturer
Code 81
Code 81102
Code 811-0332
1,480.2
1,824.2
1,956.2
1,399.3
1,510.6
1,871.3
1,983.2
1,410.4
1,540.5
1,899.9
2,017.8
1,424.6
1,563.7
1,928.8
2,031.7
1,407.0
Code 114
Code 112
Code 1191
Code 621
346.9
319.9
337.5
330.6
349.4
365.5
225.9
221.2
386.7
265.5
246.4
125.3
350.9
3,343.8
3,227.7
2,170.6
1,837.6
1,387.7
1,984.2
1,031.9
1,101.8
2,211.1
3,270.2
1,154.5
699.2
2,331.4
3,363.2
2,907.9
2,221.1
1,727.8
1,356.2
1,889.0
982.5
1,049.0
2,073.8
2,946.5
1,152.3
674.4
2,384.3
3,392.1
2,895.4
2,271.9
1,775.9
1,419.2
1,969.8
1,024.5
1,093.8
2,153.6
2,933.8
1,181.8
692.8
2,445.5
3,365.3
2,576.6
2,316.2
1,536.2
1,408.7
1,666.9
866.8
926.4
1,911.4
2,611.4
1,175.9
635.3
2,471.2
Code 1015-0239
Code 1017-0611
Code 1141
Code 1017
Code 1017-0831
Code 1017-0711
Code 1017-0733
Code 1017-0755
Code 1017-0400
Code 1017-0622
Code 1072
Computed
Code 1149
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 76
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 76
No. 29, May 5, 1949
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 73
Apr. 1, 1963, p. 119
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 73
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 73
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 73
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 73
Jan. 3, 1983, p. 73
No. 5, Nov. 18, 1949
Oct. 1, 1962, p. 85
No. 46, Sept. 1, 1940
438.5
2,465.2
2,489.5
2,555.2
2,548.9
OGJ
88.7
118.5
637.5
661.8
688.5
660.0
OGJ
147.0
739.0
802.6
865.3
755.4
OGJ
Operating cost
(based on 1956 = 100.)
1954
1972
2012
2013
2014
Aug.
2015
88.7
97.2
210.0
197.0
1,407.5
489.4
1,506.4
489.1
1,541.3
493.1
499.9
630.6
545.9
2,746.0
3,636.7
3,055.6
2,796.5
3,732.8
3,123.4
161.4
143.6
144.7
193.1
188.1
159.1
141.1
138.5
159.9
157.7
171.2
161.9
150.5
171.7
190.7
156.8
151.0
173.8
154.6
198.5
197.8
181.2
238.0
324.4
212.4
252.5
322.8
274.9
342.0
218.4
199.6
216.3
211.0
271.0
149.3
233.3
274.3
266.7
281.9
278.5
346.5
328.4
272.4
353.4
303.9
310.6
1,804.9
1,136.8
1,338.5
2,020.7
1,718.2
935.0
1,270.5
1,016.7
514.8
1,098.6
1,368.3
815.7
1,047.0
1,220.9
1,133.7
1,229.3
1,199.2
1,424.4
2,027.4
1,477.0
1,960.4
1,210.0
870.6
1,793.9
159.9
165.9
161.9
159.0
278.5
324.4
269.1
231.8
195.0
182.7
166.5
187.1
198.7
187.0
177.0
169.0
193.4
180.0
147.3
123.0
197.0
*Code refers to the index number of the Bureau of Statistics, US Department of Labor, Wholesale Prices Itemized Cost Indexes, Oil & Gas Journal.
160104ogj_75 75
75
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Yi Jiang
TRANSPORTATION
Liangxue Cai
Southwest Petroleum University
Thermal insulation properties of fiber-reinforced (FRP) plastic crude oil pipelines are superior to seamless steel pipelines.
Operating a crude oil pipeline at too low a temperature can
lead to wax precipitation, a major economic and safety prob-
3D SOIL MODEL
y
z
CROSS-SECTION MESHING
Basic theory
Soil temperature generally remains
constant below the surface zone. This
article does not consider phase changes in the earth or changes in its thermal
parameters under natural conditions
76
160104ogj_76 76
12/28/15 3:15 PM
EQUATIONS
and makes the following assumptions:
Only pure heat conduction exists
between the pipeline and soil.
Thermal contact resistance between the pipeline and soil can be (and
is) ignored.
Soil surrounding the pipeline is a
homogeneous medium.
Changes in elevation along the
pipeline are also ignored.
The pipelines thermal influence
zone ranges from -10 m to 10 m on its
horizontal axis and from -8 m to 0 m
vertically.
These assumptions led to a rectangular heat dissipation model with
the following dimensions: a pipeline
length of 50 m, an axial cross section
of 20 8 m, and a coverage depth of
1.0 m (Fig 1). A convective heat transfer boundary condition was specified
on the earths surface, with adiabatic
boundary conditions at X = -10 m and
X = 10 m and Y = -8 m defined as the
constant temperature boundary condition.
Gambit software established a 3D
model of the soil surrounding the buried pipeline, generating the mesh used
in Fluent (Fig. 2).
Mathematical model
Fluent uses different control equations
for different heat transfer boundaries
when simulating the temperature field
of soil. The non-steady state conditions
of buried hot oil pipelines involve the
mass conservation equation, momentum conservation equation, energy
conservation equation for fluid flows
inside pipelines, the heat conduction
equation for soil outside pipelines, and
the standard k- two-equation model. Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes
(RANS) methods calculate turbulence.7 8
Equation 1 is the continuity equation, Equation 2 the momentum conservation equation, and Equation 3 the
energy conservation equation.
The equations contain turbulent
stress, pu i 'u j ', and the additional turbulent heat flux, C p p u i 'T', and therefore are not closed. The Reynolds
160104ogj_77 77
2t
2
2t + 2 | Q tu i V = 0
2 Q tu i u j V
2t 2
2 uj
2
1 2
2 ui
= - 2 x + 2 x S n 2 x - tu i ' u j ' X + 3 2 x T n 2 x Y
2x
2t Q tu i V +
2tT
2tT
2
2T
C p T 2 t + u i 2 x Y = 2 x S k 2x i - C p tu i ' T' X + z' + S T
n 2 ' 2 t
f = t S 2ux XS 2ux X
2 Q ku i V
2k
2 n eff 2k
2u i 2
2u i 2u j 2
t 2t + t 2x j = 2 x S v k 2 x X + n t # 2 | S 2 x X + | S 2x j + 2x i X & - tf
2 Q fu i V
2f
f2
f
2 n eff 2f
2u i 2
2u i 2u j 2
t 2t + t 2x i = 2x i S v f 2x i X + C 1 n t k # 2 | S 2x i X + | S 2x i + 2xi X & - C 2 t k
n t 2T
2u i 2u i 2
tu i ' u j ' = n t T 2x j + 2xi Y - 3 tkd ij, t u i 'T = Pr 2x i
t
n eff = n + n t, n t = C n C D tk 2 /f
(1)
(3)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Where:
i and j = indicators1, 2, and 3
t = oil density inside the pipeline,kg/cum
u = velocity vector,m/s
p = oilpressure,Pa
T = oil temperature,K.
z = dissipation function
k = turbulence kinetic energy, sqm/sq s
f = dissipationrate sq sm/cu s
n = oil dynamic viscosity,Pa $ s
n t = turbulant viscosity,kg/ (m $ s)
C 1, C 2, C n and C D = empirical constants, the default values of whichinFLUENCE =
1.44,1.92, 0.09, and1.0 respectively
Prt = turbulent Prandtl number, 0.85 by default
2Ts
2
2
2
2Ts
2Ts
2Ts
t s c s 2t = 2x S m s 2x X + 2y S m s 2y X + 2z S m s 2z X
Where:
t s = soil density,kg/cum
(9)
+
0
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
(14)
Where:
a 0 = heart transfer coefficient, oil - to - pipe wall; W/ (m $ cC)
a a = heart transfer coefficient, soil - to - atmosphere; W/ (m $ cC)
T0 = temperature,inside pipe wall,K.
R 0 = pipe inside radius,m
Ta = air temperature,K.
Tn = temperature, constant subsurface zone;K.
L = horizontal thermalinfluence boundary,m
H = vertical thermalinfluence boundary,m
77
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
3D MESHING
FIG. 3
FIG. 4
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
279
284
289
294
299
FIG. 5
305
310
313
* K.
FIG. 6
290
288
286
284
282
280
278
* K.
78
160104ogj_78 78
Boundary conditions
The assumptions of the physical model led to the boundary conditions defined by Equations 10-14. Equation
10 represents the convective heat exchange between soil and atmosphere
and Equations 11 and 12 the conductive heat exchange between soil and
the FRP pipeline. Equation 13 defines
the adiabatic boundaries of the vertical planes 10 m away from the pipeline
to both the left and right and Equation 14 the constant temperature of
the boundary 8 m below the surface.
The combination of flow and pipe
diameter determined inlet velocity within a preselected inlet boundary condition. The pipelines outlet
boundary condition was set as free
outflow.
Project profile
The Xinjiang Petroleum Investigation
Design and Research Institute designed the Hong-Ke FRP oil pipeline,
which began operation end-2011. The
pipeline is 31.7 km long with a nominal diameter of 200 mm. It lies 1 m
below the surface and operates at a
safe pressure of 5.5 MPa. The soils in
the areas along the pipeline are primarily loam and light loam. The climate is characterized by cold winters,
hot summers, and large temperature
differences between night and day.
Table 1 details physical parameters
of both Hong-Ke and the surrounding soil, as used in Fluent calculations.
Properly reflecting data changes re-
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
160104ogj_79 79
38
36
34
32
0
10
15
20
Pipeline length, km
25
30
35
FIG. 8
Field experiments
Numerical simulation
Validation
10
15
20
Pipeline length, km
25
30
35
FIG. 9
25
20
Temperature, C.
FIG. 7
40
Temperature, C.
Numerical simulation
15
10
5
Depth, m
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.5
-5
2.0
3.0
4.0
-10
100
200
Day
300
400
79
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
TEMPERATURE COMPARISON*
FIG. 10
10 hr
500 hr
1,000 hr
1,500 hr
tures at the inlet and outlet of the pipeline were set to the same values as the
operating parameters set in the Fluent
simulation. Table 2 shows simulated
soil temperatures at 1 m based on air
temperature changes in August 2014.
Fig. 7 illustrates the temperature-drop
curve along the Hong-Ke pipeline Aug.
1, 2014.
The temperature-drop curve shows
the rate of decline decreasing as distance grows. Table 3 and Fig. 8 show
temperature drop along the Hong-Ke
pipeline for 30 days in August, including errors. Comparing the data obtained through the software simulation
with the data from the field operation
shows a consistent trend in temperature drop and some errors in values.
When Fluent simulated soil temperature, the air temperature outside
the soil was assigned the daily mean
temperature instead of changing with
time. The thermal conductivity coefficient of soil also changes as air temperature changes, but was set to a fixed
value during Fluent simulation, causing the values obtained through simulation to differ from those obtained
in the field. The simplified simulation
pipeline showed high accuracy and
validated the correctness of the model.
Air temperature
Fig. 9 shows 2014 simulation results
for soil temperature at depths of 0.54.0 m as air temperature changes. Natural temperature curves for the soil
unaffected by the pipeline appeared as
a group of smooth cosine curves. As
depth of the soil increased, the amplitude of the cosine curves decreased
gradually until approaching zero. Temperature changes also shrank as depth
increased. Temperature field results
under natural conditions simulated by
Fluent were consistent with reality.
2,000 hr
2,650 hr
Operation period
279
* K.
80
160104ogj_80 80
284
289
294
299
305
310
313
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
hot pipeline, the soils initial temperature field was redistributed. The soil
near the pipeline initially was affected greatly by the hot oil pipeline. As
pipeline operation continued, heat diffused. The soil temperature field did
not immediately reach steady state due
to delays in its temperature waves.
Comparison also shows the soil
temperature not initially reaching
stability. After 10 hr of operation, the
pipeline had only had a small effect,
heat diffusion limited to the pipe wall.
An obvious soil temperature increase
only appeared after 500 hr.
Pipeline material
Different pipeline materials have different thermophysical parameters, different coefficients of thermal conductivity, and different thermal insulation
properties. This article studied both
FRP and seamless steel pipelines. Table
4 shows their performance parameters.
Fig. 11 shows temperature distribution of the soil after crude transport
through both an FRP pipeline and a
seamless steel pipeline, with a steady
state reached at an oil flow temperature of 40 C. At this state the temperature of soil surrounding the seamless
steel pipeline reached 37 C., while
that of soil surrounding the FRP pipeline was 25 C.
The FRP pipeline had a smaller ef-
PHYSICAL PARAMETERS
Table 1
1,800
2,500
0.95
0.40
0.14
25.06
117.88
3.7
7.8
6.0
1.0
0.190
0.005
SOIL TEMPERATURE
Date, August
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Table 2
Atmospheric temperature, C.
29.5
31.5
29.5
28.5
28.5
27.0
27.5
25.0
26.5
27.5
24.0
24.0
22.5
22.0
23.5
21.0
19.0
21.0
22.5
25.0
25.5
27.5
28.5
27.5
23.5
23.0
25.0
26.5
26.5
18.5
13.48
13.55
13.62
13.69
13.74
13.80
13.93
13.99
14.12
14.18
14.25
14.31
14.39
14.45
14.52
14.59
14.66
14.72
14.81
14.89
14.92
14.99
15.08
15.14
15.27
15.35
15.39
15.42
15.48
15.55
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION*
FIG. 11
FRP pipeline
298
292
310
288
286
284
282
296
294
292
29
290
288
286
284
282
* K.
160104ogj_81 81
81
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 12
40
Temperature, C.
30
20
10
Atmospheric
temperature
Oil temperature, C.
20
30
40
50
-10
-20
-30
0
100
200
Day
300
400
FIG. 13
30
Temperature, C.
25
Buried depth, m
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
20
15
100
200
Day
300
400
FIG. 14
24
22
Horizontal
Vertical, downward
Vertical, natural temperature field
20
18
Buried depth
10
Temperature, C.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
0
82
160104ogj_82 82
4
Distance from center, m
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
pipeline increased rapidly, whereas
those of the soil far from the pipeline
increased at a slower rate.
In the horizontal direction, temperatures at points 3.5 m away from
the pipelines center almost reached
stable values. The temperature field
of soil 4.5 m vertically away from the
pipelines center was nearly unaffected
by the hot oil pipeline. Temperature
changes of soil outside the pipeline
were concentrated primarily within a
certain range and the assumption of
the simplification of an infinite area
of soil into a finite area was validated
(Fig. 14).
References
1. Wheeler J.A., Simulation of heat
transfer from a warm pipeline buried
in permafrost, American Institute of
Chemical Engineers National Meeting,
New Orleans, Mar. 11-15, 1973.
2. Xing, X.K. and Zhang, G.Z.,
Determination of temperature field of
crude oil pipeline, Oil and Gas Storage
and Transportation, Vol. 18, No. 12,
December 1999, pp. 28-30.
3. Wu M. and An B.W., Crude
pipeline computer model considering overall heat transfer coefficient
changes along pipeline, Oil and Gas
Field Surface Engineering, Vol. 17, No.
3, March 1998, pp. 5-8.
4. Li N.S., Li H.S., Ding D.W., and
Wan S.X., Singular perturbation method of phase change temperature of
petroleum pipeline in seasonally frozen
ground regions for irregular boundary
configuration, Journal of Glaciology
and Geocryology, Vol. 25, No. 4, April
2003, pp. 453-460.
5. He S.S., Yu W.B., Chen W.G., Yu
Z.F., and Jin H.J., Non-linear analysis
of temperature fields around the buried
oil-pipeline in permafrost regions,
Northeast China, Journal of Glaciology
and Geocryology, Vol. 30, No. 2, February 2008, pp. 287-295.
6. Wang M. and Yu Y.Y., Buried
oil pipeline in the CFD simulation of
shutdown temperature drop, Science,
Technology, and Engineering, Vol. 11,
No. 22, 2011, pp. 5281-5285.
160104ogj_83 83
The authors
Kun Huang (swpuhk@126.com) is a professor at the School of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University of China, Chengdu.
He specializes in oil and gas gathering and processing technology
theory. He holds an MA in computer application technology from University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu.
Jiali Wu (gali511@163.com) is a postgraduate student at
the School of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University
of China, Chengdu. She specializes in oil and gas storage and transportation security theory and technology. She holds a BA in oil and
gas storage and transportation engineering from Southwest Petroleum
University. She is a member of Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE).
Hongfang Lu (luhongfang_sci@126.com) is a postgraduate student at
the School of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University
of China, Chengdu. He specializes in pipeline stress analysis technology. He holds a BA in oil and gas storage and transportation engineering from Southwest Petroleum University. He is a member of American
Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
Yi Jiang (jiangyi2@cnooc.com.cn) is an assistant engineer at CNOOC
Energy Technology & Services Ltd., Tianjin. She specializes in oil and
gas gathering and processing technology theory. She holds an MA in
oil and gas storage and transportation engineering from Southwest
Petroleum University.
Liangxue Cai (cailiangxue-184@163.com) is a lecturer at
the School of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University
of China, Chengdu. He specializes in oil and gas storage and transportation engineering construction technology. He holds a PhD in oil and
gas storage and transportation engineering from China University of
Petroleum, Beijing.
83
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FUZZY CONTROLLER
FIG. 1
Fuzzy system
Fuzzification
TRANSPORTATION
Defuzzification
Rule
base
Normalization
Fuzzy logic
addresses turbine
vibration on
Algerian gas line
Sensor
Denormalization
Process
Control parameters
Abdelhafid Benyounes
Ahmed Hafaifa
University of Djelfa
Algeria
Guemana Mouloud
University of Medea
Algeria
84
160104ogj_84 84
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
EQUATIONS
J FCM (Z,U, V) = | | (nik) m D 2ikA
c
(1)
i=l k=l
Where:
Z = data set
U = " n ik $, the matrix of fuzzy partition withC # Ndimension
(2)
Fuzzy modeling
1 # i # c,1 # k # N
1
n ik =
2
c
| j 1S DD ikAjkA Xm - 1
Where:
(3)
1 # i # c,1 # k # N
|
|
|
=
|
N
vi =
K=1
N
(n ik) m z k
K =1
v 1i
K=1
N
K= 1
(4)
(n ik) m
(n ik(1)) m z k
(n ik(1)) m
;1 # i # c
(5)
D 2ikA = (z k - v 1i ) T A (z k - v 1i )
(6)
Where:
1 # i # c,1 # k # N
1
2
|j 1 S DD ikAjkA Xm - 1
n ik(1) = 0if D ikA 2 0 and n ik(1) ! [0,1]
n ik(1) =
(7)
(8)
D 2ika = (z k - v 1i ) T A (z k - v 1i )
(10)
(11)
HPspeed% (k) = F3 HPspeed% (k - 1),FP(k - 1), NGV final (k - 1),IGV final (k - 1))
(12)
(13)
(14)
JK
KK
KK
fitness % = 100 # KKK
KK
KK
K
L
(15)
NO
OO
OO
i=1
OO
N
O
| Q yireal - mean (y real) V2 OOOOO
i=1
P
|Qy
model
160104ogj_85 85
- y real V2
i
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
Fuel gas
FIG. 3
Inlet gas
GCV
Exhaust
Inlet air
NOV
Axial
compressor
IGV
HP shaft
LP shaft
Gas injection
compressor
Combustion
chamber
Injection
wells
Air-bleed valve
form class in the equation of the objective function. The particular choice,
A=I, induces the standard Euclidean
norm given by flowing Equation 9.
When expert knowledge is not
available, data must identify the structure in question. A fuzzy classification
method can then partition the data
into classes. Each of these classes, or
fuzzy regions, is characterized by a
vector called class center. An audit determining degree of similarity groups
the data. An appropriate distance measure, quantifying both the distance between data represented as points in the
feature space and groups of centers,
feeds this audit.
Fuzzy-logic controller
REGROUPED PRESSURE DATA
FIG. 4
535
534
Suction, bar
533
532
531
530
529
392.5
393.0
393.5
394.0
394.5
395.0
395.5
Discharge, bar
86
160104ogj_86 86
Process description
The SC3 gas compression station is
equipped with a Solar Titan 130 gas
turbine (Fig. 2) and auxiliary equipment. The Solar Titan 130 gas turbine
consists of three main sections: the ax-
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
1
534
160104ogj_87 87
2
3
4
533
5
Center
532
531
Application results
530
529
392.5
393.0
393.5
394.0
394.5
395.0
395.5
Discharge, bar
FIG. 6
78.10
78.05
78.00
Suction, cu m/hr
FIG. 5
535
Suction, bar
ial compressor, the combustion chamber, and the turbine. There is also a
variable inlet guide vane (IGV) in the
axial compressors inlet and a variable
nozzle guide vane (NGV) in its turbine
section.
Two valves at the inlet fuel line of
the combustion chamber are the main
controlling devices of the gas turbine:
one controlling inlet fuel pressure, the
stop ratio valve (SRV), and one governing load-shaft speed, the gas control
valve (GCV).
77.95
77.90
77.85
77.80
77.75
43.6
43.8
44.0
44.2
44.4
44.6
44.8
45.0
45.2
45.4
Discharge, cu m/hr
87
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 7
78.10
Clusters
1
2
78.05
3
4
Suction, cu m/hr
78.00
Center
77.95
77.90
77.85
77.80
77.75
43.6
43.8
44.0
44.2
44.4
44.6
44.8
45.0
45.2
45.4
Discharge, cu m/hr
FIG. 8
100
Fitness, %
80
60
40
Real data
Model output
20
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Time, 10 104 sec
Bibliography
Abonyi, J., Roubos, J.A., Oosterom,
M., and Szeifert, F., Compact TS-fuzzy
models through clustering and OLS
88
160104ogj_88 88
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
FIG. 9
750
Temperature, F.
700
Real data
Model output
650
0.0
0.5
1.5
2
Time, 10 104 sec
2.5
3.5
FIG. 10
HP speed
Exhaust temperature
80
600
70
500
Temperature, F.
Speed, %
60
50
Reference
Measured
40
30
400
Reference
Measured
300
200
20
100
10
0
0
10
12
Time, sec
160104ogj_89 89
14
16
18
20
10
12
14
16
18
20
Time, sec
89
12/28/15 3:15 PM
TECHNOLOGY
TAKE
THE
PLUNGE!
Best-Selling
2nd Edition!
372 Pages/Hardcover/2011
ISBN 978-1-59370-253-3 / $85.00 US
ORDER TODAY!
VISIT WWW.PENNWELLBOOKS.COM
OR CALL 800-752-9764!
The authors
Abdelhafid Benyounes
is a PhD candidate in
the applied automation
and industrial diagnostics laboratory at Djelfa
University, Algeria. He
earned an MS (2011)
in industrial control engineering from
University of MSila, Algeria. Research
interests include fault-tolerant control
using fuzzy logic with decision support in
the supervisory system.
Ahmed Hafaifa (hafaifa@
hotmail.com) is associate
professor in industrial
process, automationdiagnosis, and reliability engineering in the
science and technology
faculty of the University of Djelfa. He is
also director of the universitys applied
automation and industrial diagnostics
laboratory.
Guemana Mouloud is
associate professor at the
University of Boumerdes,
Algeria. He earned
both his PhD (2012) in
industrial maintenance
and his MS (1998) in mechanical engineering at the University of
Boumerdes. Research interests include
industrial maintenance, system reliability, dynamic systems, and diagnostic
optimization.
FIND US:
90
160104ogj_90 90
12/28/15 3:15 PM
SERVICES | SUPPLIERS
FUGRO
Fugro has been awarded a three-year
contract by PGS for the provision of
precise satellite positioning systems for
its entire seismic vessel fleet.
PGS is a leading global provider of
marine seismic and electromagnetic services, data acquisition, imaging, reservoir
services and multi-client library data.
Fugro, a leading provider of precise
satellite positioning to the offshore oil
and gas industry, will supply PGS vessels
with a number of completely independent Global Navigation Satellite Systems
(GNSS). These systems include Fugros
recently launched Starfix.G4 - the first
commercial GNSS service to utilise all
available GNSS systems (GPS, GLONASS,
Galileo and BeiDou), giving sub-decimetre
accuracy - and Starfix.G2+, a global service offering centimetre accuracy in both
position and height.
In addition to precise vessel positioning, PGS will benefit from a new generation of positioning technology for their
seismic sources and tailbuoys. Meeting
the high demand for robustness and
quality in the offshore industry, this proactive technology provides independent
decimetre and centimetre positions and
heights for remote (seismic source and
tailbuoy) operations.
ENSCO
Ensco plc announced that Carey Lowe
has been named chief operating officer.
He is based in London and succeeds
Mark Burns, who is retiring from the
Company. Lowe has held various executive management positions at Ensco
since joining the Company in 2008. His
experience includes operations, engineering, safety and strategy.
OFFSHORE INSTALLATION
SERVICES LTD
Offshore Installation Services Ltd (OIS),
an Acteon company, has named Colin
Shellard as its new managing director.
Based in Aberdeen, Shellard is responsible for setting the strategy at OIS, as
the company continues to focus on new
opportunities in the offshore decommissioning sector. He will also play a
160104ogj_91 91
until March of 1996 he served as Accounting Consultant, Citation Oil and Gas
Corporation. He was Accounting Consultant for Black Stone Oil Company from
April of 1985 until May of 1987. From
June of 1978 until August of 1984 he
was an Audit Manager for Author Young
& Company. He received a Bachelors of
Business Administration in Finance from
the University of Texas in 1975 and a
Masters of Science in Accountancy from
the University of Houston in 1978.
In addition, the Company also
confirms Senior Vice President, General
Counsel and Corporate Secretary Saema
Somalya, Vice President of Corporate
Development Jeffrey Keeler and Chief
Accounting Officer and Controller Brian
Gelman, will be leaving the Company on
or prior to March 31, 2016 in order to
pursue other opportunities in connection
with the closure of the New York office.
As previously disclosed, these officers
are subject to retention agreements in
order to facilitate smooth transition of all
relevant matters under their purview to
the new management team.
FLOWROX
91
12/28/15 3:15 PM
SERVICES | SUPPLIERS
ity of devices to an Internet network can
bring added versatility and performance.
The embedding of Flowrox products
with electronics, software, sensors and
network connectivity enables the customer to collect and exchange data with
the users and in some cases directly with
Flowrox.
Flowrox will begin marketing its Smart
Series of valves that incorporate a new
series of smart sleeves and intelligent
positioners with enhanced reporting and
wear analysis, which will signal the customer that a valve may be heading toward
failure before it actually fails.
Smart pumps will be available later on
2016 with similar features and innovative
add-ons.
Through a unique Internet-based
interface that allows users to view process
performance, flow rates, pressures and
a variety of variables through an Internet
connection, Flowrox will meet the demand for better data for decision-making,
as well as giving customers more control
over its products.
KCA DEUTAG
Leading global drilling and engineering
contractor, KCA Deutag, today announces that it has been awarded two
contracts with BP Exploration (Caspian
Sea) Limited. These contracts have a
combined value of approximately $360m
for the initial contract or $1bn including
all options.
The first contract has been awarded to
our offshore division and is for the operations and maintenance of seven platforms
operated by BP in the Caspian Sea
pursuant to Product Sharing Agreements.
These are the East, West and Central
Azeri, Deepwater Gunashli, West Chirag,
Chirag and Shah Deniz installations. The
initial term is for three years with two
three-year extension options.
The second contract has been
awarded to RDS, KCA Deutags engineering and design specialist, and is for
engineering support services on all drilling
packages for projects in the Caspian Sea
that are operated by BP from the Azerbaijan, Georgia and the Turkey Region. This
contract is effective from 1st December
92
160104ogj_92 92
BAKER HUGHES
Baker Hughes announced the commercial release of its CENesis PHASE
multiphase encapsulated production
solution, which helps operators avoid
production interruptions in unconventional wells. Designed to separate natural
gas from the oil stream before it can
enter an electrical submersible pumping (ESP) system, the solution mitigates
production downtime and potential ESP
performance issues, which can ultimately improve reserve recovery.
During the production phase in
unconventional plays, higher levels of
natural gas are usually released from the
payzone as reservoir pressure depletes.
This gas typically enters the horizontal
wellbore and accumulates in the highside of the lateral, creating large gas slugs
that, as they move up the wellbore, cause
12/28/15 3:15 PM
JANUARY
2016
VOL
62;
NO.
OGPE.COM
OIL, GAS
&petrochemequipment
W H AT S N E W F O R O N S H O R E & O F F S H O R E : U P S T R E A M , M I D S T R E A M , D O W N S T R E A M O P E R AT I O N S
In this issue: 2015 Products & Services Review & Highlights Plus
New Vent O2 Probe measures and sends real-time data regarding environmental changes in rail cars transporting crude oil or
other hazardous materials. It alerts operators to stability of rail
car environment, changing O2 levels, and explosion potential.
New technology enables easy sensor placement inside rail
cars so real-time data are provided the engineer, network operating center, or other appropriate recipients. It alerts any potential changes in atmosphere that could be detrimental.
Vent O2 Probes cloud-based data analysis is time efficient for
long-term analysis and future planning.
MarqMetrix: Seattle WA
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DISTRIBUTION
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Products
OG&PE
Publisher
Editor
Production Director
Digital Product Manager
Production Manager
Art Director
Digital Audience Development Manager
Social Media Marketing Analyst
Audience Development Manager
Marketing Manager
JANUARY 2016:
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J.B. Avants
Charlie Cole
Kristine Duran
Shirley Gamboa
Clark Bell
Jennifer Van Burkleo
Anna Alaback
Linda Thomas
Daniel Bell
EDITORIAL OFFICES
Oil, Gas & Petrochem Equipment
1421 S. Sheridan Road, Tulsa OK 74112 PO Box 1260, Tulsa OK 74101-1260
p 918.832.9351 f 918.832.9201 www.OGPE.com
SALES OFFICES
North America
Italy
Ferruccio Silvera
Tel. 39 02 28 46716
info@silvera.it
PennWell do Brasil
Deny Tenenblat
55 21 3932 5557
DenyT@PennWell.com
France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium
and Southern Switzerland
Daniel Bernard
33 (0) 1 30 71 11 19
DanielB@PennWell.com
Stefania Piciotti Thompson
33 4 94 70 82 63
StefaniaT@PennWell.com
CORPORATE OFFICERS
Chairman
Robert F. Biolchini
Vice Chairman
Frank T. Lauinger
Mark C. Wilmoth
Jayne A. Gilsinger
AD IN DEX
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January 2016
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OGPE.com
Flomatic Valves
January 2016
160104OGJ_P3 3
P3
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OGPE.com
P4
160104OGJ_P4 4
January 2016
12/21/15 2:30 PM
OGPE.com
w
ne
PAR: Production Asset Reliability Integrated Asset Perfomance Management delivers an all-in-one view of equipment health.
PAR combines GEs System
1 condition monitoring and
diagnostics
applications
with Meridiums enterprise
performance management
and asset strategy solutions
suite. This provides a holistic and quantifiable view of operations, maintenance, availability, and overall operating performance for production assets.
GE Measurement and Control & Meridium Incorporated:
Minden NV
SEISMIC
SAFETY
SWITCH
AB14-823
www.sensonics.co.uk
January 2016
160104OGJ_P5 5
P5
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OGPE.com
Coming in February:
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January 2016
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OGPE.com
.com/audible
Visit us at
CIPPE
23-25 Mar
Beijing
January 2016
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January 2016
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OGPE.com
HiP trunnion style double block and bleed ball valves are
designed for up to 15,000 psi calibration applications.
The full port, quarter-turn designs
deliver double positive isolation to
block and bleed high-pressure hydraulic and pneumatic systems employed for pressure monitoring and
testing, chemical injection, or drain
line isolation.
Models comprise 316 stainless
steel construction, Viton O-rings,
and PEEK ball seats for environmental and chemical resistance.
Trunnion styling handles severe service applications in .203,
.250, .313, and .375 in. orifices and will accommodate 3/8,
9/16, 3/4, 1/4 in. NPT, 3/8-in. NPT, and 1/2 in. NPT tube sizes.
The vent port is 1/4-in. FNPT.
High Pressure Equipment Company: Erie PA
Power Xpert C445 intelligent motor management and protection relay helps improve energy awareness over traditional
controls, improve operator
safety, and support reliable
operations through enhanced
diagnostics.
This motor management
relay addresses complexities
of continuous downstream oil and gas start-up or shutdown
procedures to protect personnel and minimize downtime.
Eaton Electrical Sector: Pittsburgh PA
160104OGJ_P9 9
P9
12/21/15 2:31 PM
OGPE.com
P10
160104OGJ_P10 10
Camo-style FR shirts
A new Realtree partnership is
announced by Bulwark to make
Xtra Camo flame-resistant
shirts available.
The hazardous-use FR designs
provide extra effectiveness in the
field, blending year round into a
variety of habitats.
Xtra camos printing technology layers sharp foreground elements over a progressively ghosted midground and soft background.
Shirts comprise 88% cotton and 12% nylon blend for comfort and durability. Gusset side seam provides easy movement
along with a banded topstitched collar, two chest pockets button flap closers, and a sewn-in pencil stall.
Bulwark: Nashville TN
For FREE Information, select #41 at ogpe.hotims.com
January 2016
12/21/15 2:31 PM
OGPE.com
Toshiba International Corporation is proud to be your singlesource solution for application demands with its complete
product lineup of electric motors, adjustable speed drives,
and motor starters.
By pairing the P9 adjustable speed drive with the EQP Global motor, Toshiba International has set new pump control standards in technology, efficiency, and ease-of-use that go beyond
the competitive demands of the evolving pump industry.
Toshiba International: Houston
Toshiba.com/tic/industries-served/oil-gas
ULTRA-FLOW field-installed centralizers / paraffin scrapers deliver full-circle wiping of tubing inside diameters.
Among ULTRA-FLOW benefits: More gripping force on
sucker rods, more fluid flow-by volume, longer useful life from
longer vanes and bearing surfaces, plus positive wear indicators. A centralizers placement guide is available on this manufacturers website.
Oilfield Improvements Incorporated: Broken Arrow OK
RodGuides.com
For FREE Information, select #45 at ogpe.hotims.com
160104OGJ_P11 11
P11
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OGPE.com:
Brand New Look & Feel
NEW DESIGN
Check out OG&PEs newly redesigned, more user
friendly, easier-to-navigate OGPE.com. Our redesign
makes it easier than ever to learn about and stay
current on the newest oil and gas equipment,
products, systems, and services. OGPE.com is the
petroleum industrys only all-oil-and-gas products &
services website. Use it to stay continuously updated
on products and oil industry news, market trends and
all things oil and gas equipment.
What Youll Notice:
Sleek, Contemporary Design, Easy Navigation
Responsive Formatting
Multiple Entry Points for Easy Access to Resources:
monthly magazines, archives, videos, webcasts, news,
social media
And Most Importantly: Free Information & Literature
on every announcement plus direct links to
manufacturer & service provider websites
160104OGJ_P12 12
12/21/15 2:31 PM
STATISTICS
IMPORTS OF CRUDE AND PRODUCTS
Districts 1-4
District 5
12-18
12-11
12-18
12-11
2015
2015
2015
2015
1,000 b/d
Total US
12-18
12-11
12-19*
2015
2015
2014
324
305
167
207
20
111
534
593
546
74
172
105
84
782
10
10
0
117
45
38
10
67
56
10
68
93
29
43
334
315
167
324
65
149
545
660
602
84
240
198
113
822
877
859
376
237
143
104
689
1,363
1,810
220
310
1,584
2,117
2,426
6,480
7,199
846
1,113
7,326
8,312
8,292
7,843
9,009
1,066
1,423
8,909
10,432
10,718
*Revised.
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Data available at PennEnergy Research Center.
Total US
12-18-15
12-11-15
*12-19-14
1,000 b/d
472
616
363
142
145
150
1,205
1,304
979
296
315
373
711
729
538
1,017
1,044
968
3,843
4,153
3,371
500
445
388
4,343
4,598
3,759
4,567
(2,259)
6,826
5,831
(2,036)
7,867
SPOT PRICES
Product value
Brent crude
Crack spread
46.50
35.34
11.16
6,959
(945)
7,904
*Revised.
Source: Oil & Gas Journal
Data available at PennEnergy Research Center.
District
PADD 1 .....................................
PADD 2 .....................................
PADD 3 .....................................
PADD 4 .....................................
PADD 5 .....................................
15,831
147,374
243,188
22,949
55,439
56,908
52,090
76,896
7,435
27,166
51,540
45,439
66,842
5,222
25,332
8,650
6,269
14,640
668
9,224
63,154
28,402
43,109
3,883
12,768
11,192
1,001
25,649
208
5,429
6,478
26,985
60,468
1
3,707
484,781
490,657
387,210
220,495
219,384
226,098
194,375
191,219
196,254
39,451
38,273
35,873
151,316
151,976
123,846
43,479
42,758
35,006
97,638
98,975
77,841
District
REFINERY OUTPUT
Total
motor
Jet fuel,
Fuel oils
Propanegasoline
kerosine
Distillate
Residual
propylene
1,000 b/d
PADD 1 ..............................................
PADD 2 ..............................................
PADD 3 ..............................................
PADD 4 ..............................................
PADD 5 ..............................................
1,084
3,571
8,834
619
2,433
1,092
3,572
8,862
620
2,323
3,098
2,476
2,214
302
1,511
88
261
926
36
440
334
1,029
2,818
195
561
45
72
167
13
89
158
375
994
1
170
16,541
16,662
16,660
16,469
16,611
16,341
9,601
9,970
9,991
1,751
1,705
1,687
4,937
5,107
5,236
386
347
368
1,697
1,701
1,620
160104ogj_93 93
93
12/28/15 4:42 PM
STATISTICS
OGJ GASOLINE PRICES
Price
Pump
Pump
ex tax
price*
price
12-23-15 12-23-15
12-24-14
/gal
(Approx. prices for self-service unleaded gasoline)
Atlanta ..........................
140.1
186.0
Baltimore ......................
149.2
195.0
Boston ...........................
146.1
191.0
Buffalo ..........................
142.1
211.0
Miami ............................
144.6
199.0
Newark ..........................
143.1
176.0
New York........................
157.1
226.0
Norfolk...........................
225.4
261.1
Philadelphia ..................
139.8
200.0
Pittsburgh .....................
155.8
216.0
Wash., DC......................
167.1
209.0
PAD I avg ..................
155.5
206.4
267.4
257.5
277.5
281.7
271.9
233.6
238.3
241.6
261.6
270.5
267.5
260.8
Chicago .........................
Cleveland ......................
Des Moines ....................
Detroit ...........................
Indianapolis ..................
Kansas City ...................
Louisville .......................
Memphis .......................
Milwaukee .....................
Minn.-St. Paul ...............
Oklahoma City ...............
Omaha ..........................
St. Louis ........................
Tulsa .............................
Wichita ..........................
PAD II avg .................
172.5
133.6
169.6
140.6
105.8
142.3
139.1
169.1
138.7
153.0
124.6
142.3
144.2
128.6
132.6
142.4
230.0
180.0
210.0
201.0
166.0
178.0
190.0
208.9
190.0
200.0
160.0
188.0
179.9
164.0
175.0
188.0
308.2
257.9
235.5
262.5
247.9
216.5
253.4
237.9
248.1
243.5
204.8
230.0
217.5
202.9
219.1
239.0
Albuquerque ..................
Birmingham ..................
Dallas-Fort Worth ..........
Houston .........................
Little Rock .....................
New Orleans ..................
San Antonio ...................
PAD III avg ................
152.7
138.7
141.5
142.5
147.7
144.5
142.5
144.3
189.9
177.9
179.9
180.9
187.9
182.9
180.9
182.9
223.5
241.4
223.0
218.3
235.9
232.1
227.0
228.7
Cheyenne.......................
Denver ...........................
Salt Lake City ................
PAD IV avg ................
148.4
145.3
167.1
153.6
190.8
185.7
210.0
195.5
249.2
243.3
257.4
249.9
221.8
167.1
175.5
215.8
217.8
191.1
198.2
154.9
169.4
182.2
195.1
289.9
290.0
204.5
225.0
283.9
286.0
247.0
256.1
202.2
216.8
229.5
242.4
337.1
294.2
237.8
289.1
296.4
295.8
289.4
283.8
250.2
294.2
320.2
2
12-25-15
12-26-14
1,000 b/d
12-25-15 12-26-14
Alabama............................................
Alaska ...............................................
Arkansas ...........................................
California ..........................................
Land................................................
Offshore ..........................................
Colorado ............................................
Florida ...............................................
Illinois ...............................................
Indiana..............................................
Kansas ..............................................
Kentucky............................................
Louisiana ..........................................
N. Land ...........................................
S. Inland waters ..............................
S. Land............................................
Offshore ..........................................
Maryland ...........................................
Michigan ...........................................
Mississippi ........................................
Montana ............................................
Nebraska ...........................................
New Mexico........................................
New York............................................
North Dakota .....................................
Ohio...................................................
Oklahoma ..........................................
Pennsylvania .....................................
South Dakota.....................................
Texas .................................................
Offshore ..........................................
Inland waters ..................................
Dist. 1 .............................................
Dist. 2 .............................................
Dist. 3 .............................................
Dist. 4 .............................................
Dist. 5 .............................................
Dist. 6 .............................................
Dist. 7B ...........................................
Dist. 7C ...........................................
Dist. 8 .............................................
Dist. 8A ...........................................
Dist. 9 .............................................
Dist. 10 ...........................................
Utah ..................................................
West Virginia .....................................
Wyoming............................................
Others ID-1........................................
1
11
1
9
9
24
12
56
27
1
8
20
1
38
55
15
88
26
319
3
36
36
19
11
3
16
2
27
138
13
3
12
3
16
17
1
6
10
12
28
26
2
69
2
1
2
29
3
111
28
12
18
53
14
10
2
102
169
47
209
54
852
1
121
86
63
19
9
32
6
96
317
28
16
58
23
28
57
Total US ........................................
Total Canada ................................
700
126
1,840
256
826
538
162
24
983
2,096
1,499
340
58
1,862
US CRUDE PRICES
Alaska-North Slope 27 .........................................
Light Louisiana Sweet ...........................................
California-Midway Sunset 13 ..............................
California Buena Vista Hills 26 ...........................
Wyoming Sweet .....................................................
East Texas Sweet ...................................................
West Texas Sour 34 ..............................................
West Texas Intermediate........................................
Oklahoma Sweet....................................................
Texas Upper Gulf Coast .........................................
Michigan Sour .......................................................
Kansas Common ...................................................
North Dakota Sweet ...............................................
12-18-15
/gal
106.80
100.00
113.80
102.30
Propane
No. 2 heating oil
New York Harbor ......... 95.50 Mont Belvieu .............. 35.80
US Gulf of
Mexico. . . . . .
South
America
Northwest
Europe. . . . .
West
Africa. . . . . .
Middle
East. . . . . . .
Southeast
Asia. . . . . . .
Worldwide. . . .
45.02
45.37
43.50
49.16
47.56
48.45
44.55
43.61
45.89
35.48
49.48
39.91
49.51
40.50
40.64
38.70
44.81
43.30
44.74
38.92
38.39
41.66
31.87
45.99
36.40
45.30
42.13
45.84
46.90
48.56
47.49
40.79
41.79
43.29
44.30
43.05
(2.30)
2.72
(1.63)
2.51
$/bbl
Wkly. avg. 12-25-15
31.32
Mo. avg., $/bbl
Oct. -15
Nov. -15
12-18-15
/gal
12-25-15
$/bbl*
41.78
33.47
30.65
37.10
31.75
32.00
29.00
34.00
34.00
27.75
26.00
33.50
27.50
29
520
610
304
6
28
136
1,349
20
73
71
380
1,227
61
353
18
3,800
114
37
234
52
9,422
Marketed
Marketed
supply
Marketed utilization
of rigs contracted rate (%)
122
74
55
74.3
64
60
56
93.3
104
94
80
85.1
74
69
45
65.2
161
154
125
81.2
98
848
89
749
50
581
56.2
77.6
12-18-15
East....................................
Midwest..............................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
South Central
Salt ................................
Nonsalt...........................
Total US .............................
Total US2 ............................
12-11-15
12-18-14 Change,
bcf
894
894
778
1,051
1,066
905
198
203
166
346
361
333
1,325
1,322 1,070
378
376
327
947
946
744
3,814
3,846
Sept.-15
Sept.-14
3,252
Change,
%
3,626
3,187
13.8
%
14.9
16.1
19.3
3.9
23.8
15.6
27.3
17.3
94
160104ogj_94 94
12/28/15 4:42 PM
STATISTICS
PACE REFINING MARGINS
Oct.
Nov. Dec.
Dec.
2015 2015 2015
2014
Change
$/bbl
US Gulf Coast
Composite US Gulf Refinery..............
Mars (Coking) ..................................
Mars (Cracking) ...............................
Bonny Light ......................................
US PADD II
Chicago (WTI)...................................
US East Coast
Brass River ......................................
East Coast Comp .............................
US West Coast
Los Angeles (ANS) ............................
NW Europe
Rotterdam (Brent) ............................
Mediterranean
Italy (Urals) ......................................
Far East
Singapore (Dubai) ............................
9.08
11.13
7.87
3.13
9.25
10.58
7.27
5.08
8.72
9.63
6.27
5.04
4.01
4.47
1.46
(2.07)
4.71
5.16
4.81
7.11
117.3
115.6
328.8
(343.6)
19.61
10.00
8.02
6.61
1.40
9.07 8.87
9.83 10.08
9.29
10.82
(0.42)
(0.73)
21.2
0.0
(4.5)
(6.8)
5.54
7.03
14.45
13.00 15.54
2.14
1.15
4.31
2.61
(0.05)
3.09
6.15
3.73
1.20
5.32
7.25
7.76
4.44
13.39
9 month
Change vs.
average
previous
Sept.
Aug.
production year
2015
2015
2015
2014
Volume
1,000 b/d %
Change,
%
Brazil ...................................
Canada................................
Mexico .................................
United States ......................
Venezuela ............................
Other Western
Hemisphere .......................
Western
Hemisphere..................
116
680
329
3,343
204
202
203
5,076
4,846
279
42
323
42
333
56
209.8
Norway.................................
United Kingdom ...................
Other Western
Europe ...............................
74.9
330
374
Russia .................................
Other FSU ............................
Other Eastern
Europe ...............................
733
157
738
157
13
624.5
2.67 (5,030.3)
2.52
3.32
1,921
435
163
60
100
3
2,519
2,073
394
145
41
101
3
2,612
1,818
469
120
52
65
3
2,407
103
(34)
43
8
35
112
20,616 19,721
2,898 3,043
1,297 1,324
513
765
765
546
19
13
24,811 24,088
895
(145)
(27)
(252)
219
6
723
SUPPLY
Production (dry gas) ........
Supplemental gas............
Storage withdrawal..........
Imports ............................
Canada..........................
Mexico ...........................
LNG................................
Total supply .....................
2,288
5
63
209
203
6
2,565
2,352
4
85
214
203
11
2,655
2,162
5
47
202
196
6
2,416
126
0
16
7
7
0
149
20,374 19,009
43
44
2,414 2,743
2,047 1,993
1,976 1,948
1
1
70
44
24,878 23,789
1,365
(329)
54
28
26
1,090
4,365
3,626
7,991
4,363
3,252
7,615
4,371
2,935
7,306
4,369
3,187
7,556
109
682
331
3,225
209
89
657
362
2,915
213
20
26
(30)
311
(4)
22.3
3.9
(8.4)
10.7
(1.7)
223
235
(12)
(5.3)
4,780
4,470
310
6.9
307
57
26
(1)
8.5
(1.1)
10
(1)
(10.0)
399
374
25
6.6
716
157
718
166
(2)
(10)
(0.3)
(5.8)
13
13
13
(1)
(3.8)
903
908
885
897
(12)
(1.3)
Algeria .................................
Egypt ...................................
Libya....................................
Other Africa .........................
Africa..............................
340
201
50
83
756
340
202
50
83
675
340
201
50
83
674
340
190
46
82
658
12
4
-16
6.1
8.4
0.2
2.4
Saudi Arabia........................
United Arab Emirates ..........
Other Middle East ................
Middle East.....................
1,810
641
690
3,141
1,810
641
690
3,141
1,810
641
689
3,140
1,800
641
676
3,117
10
13
23
0.6
1.9
0.7
Australia..............................
China...................................
India ....................................
Other AsiaPacific ...............
AsiaPacific ...................
TOTAL WORLD .................
55
105
331
491
10,697
56
105
331
492
10,435
52
104
332
488
10,366
82
106
330
518
10,035
(30)
(2)
1
(30)
332
(36.3)
(1.5)
0.4
(5.8)
3.3
OXYGENATES
Sept.
Aug.
YTD
YTD
2015
2015 Change
2015
2014
Change
1,000 bbl
112
683
329
3,319
200
2,477
439
2,916
Fuel ethanol
Production ..................
Stocks .........................
28,543
18,904
MTBE
Production ..................
Stocks .........................
1,378
714
29,621 (1,078)
19,259 (355)
1,313
883
65
(169)
261,712 253,151
18,904 18,660
11,152
714
10,313
561
8,561
244
839
153
US COOLING DEGREEDAYS
New England ................................................................
Middle Atlantic .............................................................
East North Central........................................................
West North Central .......................................................
South Atlantic ..............................................................
East South Central .......................................................
West South Central.......................................................
Mountain ......................................................................
Pacific ..........................................................................
Sept.
2015
86
135
127
168
293
235
425
233
194
Aug.
2015
206
227
169
202
408
340
560
365
282
Sept,
2014
33
65
46
78
279
237
381
206
189
% change
1.6
1.1
1.8
1.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
US average*............................................................
223
314
292
(0.2)
1,202
% change
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
160104ogj_95 95
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12/28/15 4:42 PM
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COMPANY NAME
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AFPM
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Ariel Corporation
ASME
19
Canada
www.cippe.com.cn
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www.plca.org
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COMPANY NAME
PNEC Conferences
C3
www.pnecconferences.com
15
59
www.power-gennaturalgas.com
Japan
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P7
58
P3
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Sensonics Ltd
P5
Sierra Hamilton
17
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21
Tyco-Scott Safety
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www.ceraweek.com/2016
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160104OGJ_99 99
99
12/29/15 3:30 PM
Opposition persists
to vital agreement on
gas work off Israel
by Bob Tippee, Editor
In Israel, does the fat lady ever sing?
Its not over, the saying goes, until she
does.
So is stalemate over for deepwater gas
development now that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a crucial legal
step? After nearly a year, has the fat lady sung?
Giant Leviathan and Tamar fields, discoveries of groups led by Noble Energy Inc., can
produce far more gas than Israel needs. But
exporting the gas is controversial. Geopolitical
sensitivity around any export scheme requiring a cross-border pipeline is only part of the
reason.
Within Israel itself, political bickering over
gas exports is feverish. The basic question is
how much gas Israel should reserve for itself
and how much it should allocate for export.
But a secondary question is domination by
Noble, Israels Delek Group, and Delek subsidiaries of the production fairway taking shape in
the Mediterranean between Israel and Cyprus.
In December 2014, David Gilo, the antitrust
commissioner, suggested the Noble-Delek alliance restricted competition.
In August, the Israeli cabinet approved a
gas-development framework that addressed
Gilos concern by trimming Noble and Delek
holdings in Israels offshore gas fields but allowed development to proceed. Gilo responded
by resigning. His successor doesnt support the
agreement.
The economy minister, however, can circumvent the antitrust commissioner by invoking
national security or foreign policy. Although
that official, Arye Deri, wasnt inclined to do so,
his resignation last month allowed Netanyahu
to claim the authority, consult with a legislative committee, and win support from a narrow
majority of members.
Deepwater gas reserves potentially
transform us not just into an energy power but
certainly into an important international force
with very great capability, the prime minister
said after invoking the clause that activated the
gas framework.
Administrative formalities end there; political impediments do not.
Isaac Herzog, leader of the opposition Zionist Union, called Netanyahus move a cynical
exploitation of security needs and promised to
challenge it in court.
The fat lady might only have cleared her
throat.
(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com,
posted Dec. 18, 2015; authors e-mail: bobt@
ogjonline.com)
100
160104OGJ_100 100
WATCHING GOVERNMENT
Nick Snow
Washington Editor
12/29/15 1:43 PM
HOUSTON, TEXAS
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being $3.3 billion in debt, with many having borrowed against high
oil prices, giving rise to the spectre of a fiscal abyss.
After years of unsuccessful E&P work, the NNPC announced last
November that the Lake Chad area now appears to contain significant
new deposits of oil, which could come onstream as early as next
year and account for a large share of the Corporations projected
$20-billion revenues for 2016.
Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigerias new Minister of State for
Petroleum and the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National
Petroleum Corporation, since last August, is the man in charge of
efforts to turn around the national hydrocarbons industry. Talking to
Bloomberg Business in December, he said Nigeria is targeting output
to hit 2.5 million barrels, will issue cash calls in collaboration with
the NNPCs IOC joint-venture partners, and aims to cut costs and
streamline bureaucracy to help the sector perform more efficiently
and profitably.
As regards specific plans to clean its own house, the NNPC
aims to privatize its more than 3,000 miles of pipelines to enhance
management over the next few years. It will also revise inefficient
refineries, to not only meet Nigerias burgeoning needs but also
develop potential to sell to West African peers, within 24 months.
Nigerias best bet to return to positive growth and generate lasting
dividends for local people and businesses depends on the same
resources that have left it vulnerable. Relying on outdated models
and business as usual will not work in todays marginal marketplace.
While the short-term consequences may be painful, if the Buhari
government succeeds in pushing through ambitious reforms in the
way the NNPC, and the industry as a whole, have worked to date,
there is a genuine opportunity for the nation, and savvy investors, to
benefit in the medium to long term.
There is a lot to be done, the Minister and NNPC head admitted
in a Ministry meeting last November. We have lost momentum from
practices in the past and, coupled with the difficult international
environment, now need to sit down and map out clear deliverables.
12/18/15 1:23 PM
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OFFSHORE DIMENSIONS:
ENGINEERING THE FUTURE
Offshore Dimensions is a Nigerian engineering, procurement,
and construction company that is committed to expanding the
frontiers of innovation and engineering in Nigerias oil and gas
industry. The company is young, vibrant, and has a dynamic,
talented workforce that is focused and driven to achieve its
ambitious vision and goals.
Despite the challenging times facing the oil industry, the
company has already succeeded in doing some exciting
projects, such as the FrontEnd Engineering Design for an Early
Production Facility for one of Nigerias largest independent
oil and gas producers and the construction and installation of
offshore flowlines in water depths of over 30 meters.
Offshore Dimensions has also won a number of awards for
its innovation and promotion of engineering development in
Nigeria and is at the forefront of the development of national
codes and standards for mechanical engineering in the domestic
oil and gas industry.
The company is proud of its cutting-edge approach to
motivating and managing talent and has been particularly
targeting and recruiting millenials, who are the workforce of
tomorrow. Offshore Dimensions has come a long way in the
short time since it began doing business and is looking forward
to even more thrilling accomplishments in the future.
Im proud of my contribution, Mohammed admits. As a
manager [at NNPC], when I started to look not only at materials,
but also at the role of Nigerian companies in the sector, I found it
amazing that we had businesses that had made investments, had
equipment, and could provide services, but the oil companies were
not using them. I said, Theres something wrong with that.
Mohammed revised agreements with IOCs, identified advantages
for those working with domestic partners, and helped organize a
forum in Houston that brought together Nigerian companies with
foreign counterparts to promote joint ventures for mutual benefit.
Closing the virtuous circle, he paved the way for the Local Content
Act and opened up opportunities for Damagix to develop its own
niche in the industry.
12/18/15 1:23 PM
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12/18/15 1:23 PM
arine Platforms is a Nigerian-owned and operated oil service company that serves West African upstream players
in the exploration and production sector. With a firm focus on delivering sustainable solutions, adhering to a strict culture of
risk management, and upholding the most exacting standards, the
company has made a name for itself across the continent since its
establishment in 2001.
Headquartered in Lagos and with operational bases in Port Harcourt,
the heartland of Nigerias oil and gas business, and Aberdeenshire in
Scotland, Marine Platforms provides a comprehensive portfolio of
world-class subsea solutions, well, and vessel-chartering services.
To stay ahead of its competition and keep its costs to a minimum,
the company relies on state-of-the-art technology, custom-built
equipment, and the expertise and experience possessed by its
professional teams, to satisfy and surpass client expectations.
Holding ISO 9001, 14001, and OHSAS 18001 certifications,
Marine Platforms takes its quality, health, safety, and environmental
responsibilities very seriously, as a trusted partner for some of the
biggest players in the industry and as a valued corporate citizen. The
company and its CEO have long been leaders in the efforts Nigeria
has made to implement local content regulations in the oil industry,
contributing to the countrys economic and social goals. And it has
continued to prosper, even in the current challenging marketplace.
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12/18/15 1:23 PM
his year looks like being a challenging one for Nigerias oil and
gas industry. With the price of a barrel of Brent hitting a sevenyear low of $39.50 at the time of writing (early December
2015), the Federal Government faces the prospect of a funding
shortfall. Having calculated how to pay for the countrys biggest
ever budget in 2016, worth over $30 billion, based on previously
pessimistic prices of $38/bbl, it is now planning to issue cash calls via
the NNPC and its six IOC joint-venture partners in 2016.
That should provide plenty of food for thought, and discussion, at
the first major industry gathering of the year, Offshore West Africa.
The conference and exhibition is celebrating its 20th anniversary
in 2016, after reaching all-time-high attendance figures last year.
Showcasing the latest deepwater E&P solutions and technology at
the regions only dedicated offshore event, Offshore West Africa will
be held at Eko Hotels and Suites in Lagos from January 26-28.
Eko Hotels and Suites is located on upscale Victoria Island,
conveniently close to downtown Lagos and IOC corporate
headquarters: The majority of our clients are business travelers,
its General Manager, Danny Kioupouroglou, confirms. With 448
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