Beruflich Dokumente
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Flying by
Numbers
2015 2034
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001
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Introduction
For this years Global Market Forecast we have chosen the theme of
equations and numbers. It seemed appropriate as the economists
and data analysts working on Airbus forecasts spend much of
their day either searching for and evaluating new, complementary
and relevant sources of data; then trying to find ways to use these
numbers more effectively to improve the reliability and validity of our
analyses and forecasts. They rely daily on equations and ever more
capable software tools to achieve this.
But more than this, a key part of their work is to check and challenge
the methodologies used and the analyses produced against real
World behaviours of passengers and airlines alike. Their aim is to
identify a market-based vision of air transport over the next 20 years
backed up by rigorous data, clear graphics and industry insight.
The numbers resulting from our equations will in time become real
passengers and aircraft, and their worldwide flows will drive aviation
infrastructure and investment.
It may sound a little geeky to quote the philosopher and
mathematician Plato, but he got it right when he said A good
decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers Our aim is
to apply knowledge to numbers and through the GMF to share this
with you.
We hope that you find the 2015 Global Market Forecast informative
and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your
questions, challenges and suggestions help us advance towards
that goal. Dont forget you can download our App in several formats
from tablet to smartphone. It complements the forecast and includes
our thoughts in an interactive format.
As usual this is best read on an aeroplane, perhaps taking advantage
of the quiet, smooth comfort of your next A380 flight. Enjoy!
002
003
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
046
P.048 Aircraft Demand
Demand
by region
058
Executive
summary
004
Demand
for air travel
010
P.060 Asia-Pacific
P.066 Europe
P.072 North America
P.078 Middle East
P.084 Latin America & Caribbean
P.090 CIS
P.096 Africa
P.012 Economy
P.020 Market Drivers
Freighter
forecast
102
P.104 Air Freight
Network
and traffic
forecast
028
P.030 Network Development
P.038 Traffic Forecast
Summary &
methodology
110
P.113 Summary of results
P.118 Passenger methodology
P.124 Freight forecast methodology
004
Executive
summary
007
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
CONTEXT
The benefits of aviation reach more of the
Worlds people every year, as wealth grows,
deregulation continues, particularly to and
from the Worlds developing markets, and
Visa requirements and processes simplify.
As well as benefiting individuals, countries,
regions also profit. In Europe for example
ACI recently stated that aviation represents
4.1% of European GDP and nearly 12
million jobs. According to ICAO, some 3.2
billion passengers used air transport for
their business and tourism needs in 2014,
up approximately 5 per cent compared to
2013. Aircraft departures reached 33 million
globally during 2014, a record, surpassing
the 2013 figure. Solid global economic
growth and improving World trade helped
World scheduled passenger traffic (revenue
passenger-kilometres or RPKs) grow at a
rate of 5.9 per cent in 2014, this compared
to 5.5 per cent in 2013, above the long term
trend.
31,781
New
Deliveries
804
32,585
Passenger
Fleet
Remarketed
& stay
in service
3,968
11,834
Converted
1,552
Retired
13,135
Freighter
Fleet
1,301
008
009
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
HIGHLIGHTS
The ability to effortlessly fly anywhere in the
World is often taken for granted; it is only if we
tries to imagine the World without aviation
that its impact can start to be realised. Over
the next 20 years our forecast suggests that
more people from the emerging economies
will want take the benefits of aviation.
Asia-Pacific is often cited, but people
including those from Africa, and Latin
America will also have greater access to
flying both economically and physically.
When they fly they will likely be most familiar
with single aisle aircraft types like the A320
family and the 737. Over the next 20 years
70% of new deliveries will be for this class
of aircraft. Long-haul travel will continue to
be characterised by larger aircraft like the
A330, A350 and A380. Twin-aisle types
will represent a quarter of all new deliveries,
but 44% of their value. VLAs like the A380
have the smallest share of deliveries at 5%.
These aircraft are very visible today at the
Worlds greatest airports, and in the future
will continue to provide the most efficient
way of connecting the big points.
2015-2024
2025-2034
2015-2034
SHARE OF 2015-2034
NEW DELIVERIES
460
657
1,117
3%
4,986
7,610
12,596
39%
577
711
1,288
4%
EUROPE
3,375
2,990
6,365
20%
LATIN AMERICA
1,111
1,399
2,510
8%
MIDDLE EAST
1,174
1,187
2,361
7%
32,600
NORTH AMERICA
2,972
2,572
5,544
17%
GMF 2015-2034
FREIGHTERS
463
341
804
2%
15,118
17,467
32,585
100%
AFRICA
ASIA/PACIFIC
CIS
New Deliveries
WORLD
TRAFFIC
Since 2001, despite facing two of the
worst downturns the commercial aviation
industry has experienced, traffic measured
in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs)
has grown a remarkable 85%. The factors
which have led to this increase, including
the emerging economies, tourism, and
liberalisation, will continue to drive traffic
growth. RPKs are expected to double again
in the next fifteen years, and grow 145% to
15.2 trillion RPKs by 2034. Traffic to and from
the more mature markets is forecast to grow,
with flows such as Western Europe to the US
growing 1.7 times over the next 20 years.
The Domestic Chinese flow is expected
to become the largest single traffic flow,
growing nearly four times over this period,
with the demographics and density of
traffic requiring ever larger aircraft to meet
the demand. International long-haul traffic
is expected to grow faster than domestic
and international short-haul traffic, with its
annual growth rate 4.7% and its overall share
of traffic growing to 45%.
25,000
22,900
20,000
15,000
8,100
5,000
1,600
0
Single-aisle
Twin-aisle
% units
70%
25%
5%
% value
45%
43%
12%
010
011
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Demand for
air travel
012
013
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
10%
Advanced economies
Real GDP*(%)
8%
Economy
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Emerging economies
Real GDP*(%)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
014
015
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Real GDP
Growth (%)
14%
12%
10%
Private
consumption
8%
6%
70s: 3.1%
4%
10s: 2.1%
80s: 1.9%
2%
90s: 1.8%
58%
OF THE WORLD
ECONOMY BY 2034
00s: 1.4%
0%
TO SUPPORT
-2%
-4%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Air transport
and economic
growth ratio
3.1%
IN THE 70s
80,000
History
1.9%
Forecast
70,000
IN THE 80s
60,000
1.8%
IN THE 90s
+2.6%
50,000
1.4%
IN THE 00s
2.1%
IN THE 10s
+3.1%
CAGR*
2000
2014
CAGR*
2014
2034
40,000
30,000
World private
consumption
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2034
016
017
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Emerging economies
History
Forecast
80%
70%
60%
50%
43%
40%
31%
30%
Emerging
markets
Advanced economies
20%
10%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2034
TO REPRESENT
43%
31% CURRENTLY
IHS Energy
History
Forecast
120
2014
100
2015
Oil prices
80
IN THE LONG-RUN,
GROWING OIL DEMAND
AND LIMITED RESERVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PRICES BACK TO THEIR
TREND LEVELS
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
018
019
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Oil
prices
By 2034
70%
DECREASE COULD
STIMULATE WORLD REAL
GDP GROWTH BY ABOUT A
HALF PERCENTAGE POINT
IN 2015
OF THE WORLDS
POPULATION EXPECTED
TO REPRESENT MORE THAN
30%
2014
2034
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
World GDP*(%)
80%
90% 100%
World traffic*(%)
3.0
By 2034
Range uncertainty
2.5
70%
OF THE WORLDS
POPULATION EXPECTED
TO REPRESENT ALMOST
2.0
$80-$90
$60-$70*
$40-$50*
Brent oil price
2015 airline
profitability
7%
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
1985
1990
1995
2000
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
WHICH
CORRESPONDS
1980
US$50 BILLION
50
1975
2034
EXPECTED TO REACH
TO A
OPERATING MARGIN
1970
30%
2014
2005
2010
2015 F
AIRLINE PROFITABILITY,
TIME FOR A NEW ERA?
Sources: ICAO, IATA, Airbus
020
021
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
USA
~650
DOMESTIC
>2 billion
Market
Drivers
China
~350
million
million
other Domestic
~1
billion
WORLD AIR
PASSENGER
TRAFFIC
>3 billion
INTERNATIONAL
TRAFFIC
>1billion
(round-trips)
Statistical discrepancy
and excursionists
NUMBER OF
INTERNATIONAL
TOURISTS >1billion
Tourists travelling
by air ~500 million
~70%
Short-haul
~30%
(>50% of total)
Long-haul
Business
Leisure
MOBILITY IN 2014
Tourist: overnight-stay visitor
Long-haul: GC distance > 2,000 NM
Sources: UNWTO, Sabre GDD, OAG, RITA, CAAC
CONNECTIVITY
AIR
TRAFFIC
DEMOGRAPHY
ECONOMY
022
023
Flying by Numbers
More than 3 billion scheduled and nonscheduled passengers took a flight in 2014,
almost half of the Worlds population. Around
two billion of them took a domestic flight, led
by the USA (~650 million) and China (~350
million), together representing almost one
third of global passengers. In addition, more
than a billion passengers flew internationally.
The internationalisation of air transport
has been made possible by a greater co
operation between nations, illustrated by the
number of bilateral air service agreements
between countries, which has gradually
increased to more than 2,500 Worldwide by
2014.
Flying by Numbers
1,500
1,000
500
0
350
170 COUNTRIES,
Migrants (million)
70
300
60
250
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0
0
1,000
3,000
Number of air
passengers (left axis)
More than
2,550
Distance distribution of international migrants and air passengers in the World, in 2014
5,000
7,000
Migrant stock
(right axis)
The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) stated there are more than 230
million international migrants in the World, which represents around 3% of the
World population. Other studies suggest this number could be even higher. A
recent Gallup survey, conducted in 154 countries between 2010 and 2012, has
estimated the potential number of permanent adult migrants in the World, at about
13% of the World population.
35%
18%
16%
30%
14%
27%
52%
2009
25%
12%
10%
78 Airport-pairs
14%
15%
8%
6%
4%
Number of
airport-pairs
Leisure
VFR
2%
Business
Non-specified
0%
10%
5%
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
x2
20%
2014
156 Airport-pairs
LCC MARKET SHARE (ASK): 29%
024
025
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Share of
city population
A HIGH GROWTH IN NUMBER OF CHINESE VISITORS TO THE USA IN THE RECENT YEARS
Sources: UNWTO, US Department of State, Airbus
5%
350
300
The largest metropolises have become global cities, the traditional
destination for international migrants, and where international
community areas develop. Among the 91 current and future aviation
mega-cities, cities visited by more than 10,000 international longhaul (>=2,000 NM) air passengers per day, data shows that 80%
of them had positive net migration rates in 2014 (domestic and
international migration combined). Urban agglomerations are an
example of more efficient societies, provided negative externalities
such as congestion and pollution are efficiently managed: they
concentrate activities in a relatively small area, provide economies
of scale, lower transportation costs and enable the dissemination of
goods and services.
Visitors
from China
to the USA
x3
2009
-2012
4%
250
3%
200
2%
150
100
1%
50
0%
0
-1%
-50
-100
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Net migration in current and future aviation mega-cities, in 2014
-2%
026
027
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Latin America
Europe
Middle East
North America
CIS
100 200 500 750 1,000 2,000 3,500 7,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
World average
Aviation mega-cities
THE BIGGER THE CITY, THE LARGER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSUMPTION
Share of total households earning more than each income threshold.
Aviation mega-city: receiving more than 10,000 international long-haul passengers daily
Sources: Oxford Economics, Airbus
6
Infrastructure rating* in andvanced and emerging regions (1=low, 10=high)
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2020
2030
2040
2050
1998
2003
Advanced
Urban share
10
2010
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Urban
Rural
2013
2018
Emerging
70%
8
60%
7
50%
40%
5
4
30%
3
20%
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20
40
60
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 307
2
10%
1
0
1950
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2008
0%
2050
*2011 estimated capacity in more than 300 airports in several emerging countries and Europe
**Airports ranked by 2020 capacity utilisation
Sources: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
028
Network and
traffic forecast
031
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Network
Development
90
80
2004
ASKs: +57%
2006
Services: +31%
2008
2010
2012
2014
More services
Over the past ten years air traffic has continued its strong growth. In
spite of the major financial crisis in 2008, available seats increased
by 57%. In 2014, the growth rate for passenger traffic was 6%, one
of the strongest periods of growth since the beginning of the decade.
SINCE 2004
+31%
032
033
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
034
NRT
SFO
ATL
IST
LAX
133
C.I.S.
130
Latin America
122
Africa
120
Pacific
102
North America
50
100
150
200
250
Seats per flights
SIN
FRA
LHR
MSP PER
DTW
MUC
MEL
EZE
VIE
DOH
IAH
CDG
DFW
EWR
CAN
1,000
AUH
CKG
FLL
SAN
HEL
HGH
KMG
DPS
CPH
DUB
MXP
AKL
YUL
GIG
LAS
BOS
DME
JNB
SVO
IAD
TPE
SEA
OSL
PTY
RUH
PMI
PHX
LGA
BCN
PEK
DXB
MEX
LGW
MNL
CKG
DEL
5,500
DEN
10,000
Airport
congestion
x2
10,000
NORTH AMERICAN
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CLT
MIA
Middle East
aircraft size
88
Central America
JFK
HKG
MORE TRAFFIC,
BIGGER AIRCRAFT
148
Europe
BRU
PHL
154
KIX
URC
CAI
SYD
SZX
HNL
KUL
MCO
SCL
ORD
ORY
MAN
LIM
ICN
SHA
SGN
HND
LIS
BOM
YYZ
CTU
XIY
PVG
MAD
TLV
BKK
GRU
DUS
+20%
155
Indian Sub-continent
AMS
SINCE 2004
183
Asia
Bigger aircraft
BNE
208
Middle East
ARN
Flying by Numbers
BQG
Flying by Numbers
FCO
035
MONTHLY LANDINGS
PER RUNWAY AT LONDON
HEATHROW
036
037
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
2014
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
2034
230,000
038
039
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
PASSENGER TRAFFIC
A major enabler for economic development, air transport is also
robust and traditionally recovers quickly following downturns.
Due to the value people place on its benefits it is also a growth
industry. Measured in RPKs, passenger traffic has increased by a
third since the 2008 financial crisis, with an average annual growth
rate of 5.8% over the last five years. Momentum continued in 2014,
with traffic increasing by 5.9%, well above the long term trend.
Traffic
Forecast
Air transport is
a growth market
62%
Oil
Crisis
Oil
Crisis
Gulf
Crisis
Asian
Crisis
9/11 SARS
Financial
Crisis
5.0
62%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
2007
2011
2014
040
041
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
GLOBAL TRENDS
16
2014-2034
AAGR
Air Traffic
Forecast
Airbus
GMF 2015
International
Short-Haul
+4.5%
14
23%
12
10
4.6%
Domestic
+4.5%
32%
Long-Haul
demand leads
the market
INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL
TRAFFIC WILL CONTINUE
TO REPRESENT ABOUT
45%
24%
6
International
Long-Haul
+4.7%
32%
4
45%
2
44%
16
2002
ICAO
total traffic
15
13
12
11
10
2034
14
2014
Airbus
GMF 2015
2014-2024
2014-2034
AAGR
+5.2%
100%
2024-2034
+4.0%
90%
2014-2034
80%
32%
+4.6%
Advanced - Emerging
34%
+5.0%
Advanced - Advanced
30%
+2.6%
70%
60%
50%
43%
EMERGING ECONOMIES
DRIVING DEMAND GROWTH
Over the next twenty years, whilst traffic to
and from the advanced aviation markets
will continue to grow, traffic to and from
todays emerging markets will grow strongly
both in terms of actual traffic and its share.
In 2034, more than 70% of the RPKs will
be flown from, to and between emerging
regions.
40%
TRAFFIC FROM/TO/WITHIN
EMERGING REGIONS WILL
ACCOUNT FOR
30%
20%
25%
10%
Emerging- Emerging
36%
+6.6%
1
0
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2014
OF WORLD RPKs
2034
2
0%
70%
2034
042
043
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
41%
Asia-Pacific
leading growth
2004
2014
2034
51%
x3.8
Domestic PRC
x1.4
Domestic USA
x1.7
x1.7
x3.7
2014
x2.4
Domestic India
x5.8
Asia-Pacific
LatinAmerica
Middle East
62%
Africa
CIS
North America
Europe
EVOLVING STRUCTURE OF
THE AIR TRANSPORT MARKET
Sources: Sabre GDD, Airbus
2034
x3.4
PRC - USA
x4.1
x2.2
x2.4
x2.8
Domestic Brazil
x2.9
x3.0
x3.8
x2.4
x4.1
x2.5
x2.5
x3.1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
044
045
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
GMF long
term validity
GMF 2000 LONG TERM
FORECAST IS STILL
IN LINE WITH OUR LATEST
FORECAST
LCCs will
continue
capturing
market share
In 2034,
LCCS WILL FLY
21%
LCC
Small Network
10
Charter
1%
6
4% 4%
4% 4%
21%
17%
2%
2
73%
2014
2034
70%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Historical
GMF 2015
2022
2024
GMF 2008
GMF 2000
2026
046
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
048
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2014
Aircraft
Demand
250
200
150
+46%
100
50
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
Load factors
85%
80%
75%
+17pp
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
049
050
Flying by Numbers
100%
Flying by Numbers
THE IMPORTANCE OF
THE BIG POINTS
It is expected that long-haul traffic will further
concentrate around Aviation Mega-Cities.
For example, since 2009 more than 80% of
the total traffic to/from/within Latin America
has passed through just 10 airports and in
Asia-Pacific the top 20 largest airports are
responsible for almost 50% of the total traffic.
90%
Wide-Bodies operates 10%
of seats below 2,000nm
80%
70%
60%
AMC to AMC
TO REPRESENT
50%
Single-Aisle
77%
Wide-Body
40%
30%
20%
Aviation Mega-City
to Secondary City
Secondary City to
Secondary City
10%
1,600
0%
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
1,400
6000
1,200
1,000
800
AIRCRAFT SUPPLY
Having defined demand, most forecasters
must then also consider supply, i.e. what
aircraft type will actually meet this demand.
This view is commercially sensitive as it
defines an organisations view on market
share and even potential new product
offerings. Due to this sensitivity this view
is purely internal, it is clear that the level of
new product development seen in the last
10 years, the quality of those products and
their respective significant backlogs will
mean that in large part demand in the next
600
200
400
2014
Long-haul, flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
2024
2034
Sources: Sabre (September 2014 data), Airbus
051
052
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
053
CIS
+300%
North America
+25%
Europe
+60%
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
+160%
Latin America
+90%
% Difference AMCs vs regional average
THE BIGGER THE CITY,
THE WEALTHIER THE POPULATION
Sources: Oxford Economics, UNPD, IHS Global
Insight, Airbus GMF 2015
47
AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
Africa
+320%
+290%
054
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
16%
14%
12%
14%
10%
10%
8%
6%
8%
4%
2%
0%
Aviation Mega-City
to Aviation Mega-City
Aviation Mega-City
<> Secondary City
Secondary City
to Secondary City
Percentage
of premium
passenger on
AMC
14%
2014
2%
3%
4%
12%
5%
Average number of
operators during the first
20 years of the aircraft life
3.0
Middle East
Europe
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
90%
3.5
Africa
CIS
80%
25%
4%
10%
6%
5%
70%
2.5
6%
31%
60%
37%
2.0
1.5
50%
1965
1985
1970
1990
1975
1995
1980
2000
1985
2005
1990
2010
28%
10%
40%
9%
10%
The reasons for this development include the
fact that aircraft financing is more efficient,
airline segmentation has increased with
the emergence of a broad range of different
airline business models, including low-cost
airlines and seasonal charters. An aircraft is
an asset that is even more liquid today than
30 years ago.
30%
13%
20%
32%
10%
0%
28%
21%
055
056
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
7% 59%
34%
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
1% 85%
14%
18%
13%
3% 79%
2% 85%
VLA
TA
SA
1,288 (4%)
ASIA-PACIFIC
6,365 (20%)
5,544 (17%)
14,116 (44%)
MIDDLE EAST
LCCs
11%
16%
1% 88%
5% 66%
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
& CARIBBEAN
20%
38%
29%
22%
1% 79%
3% 75%
12,596 (40%)
New deliveries
46%
9,321 (29%)
1,117 (7%)
31,781 aircraft
OTHERS*
22%
2% 76%
1,275
1,117 (4%)
2,510 (8%)
7,579
22,927
8,345 (26%)
*Charters, Regional, Small
and Major network airlines
Fleet evolution
Market value
US$ 4.7 trillion
6,872
18,395
Growth
10%
3,822
35,749
3,478
2,574
2,610
1,296
100
1,463
125
150
US$ 2.2 trillion
175
210
250
300
350
932
400
1,275
17,354
VLA
US$ 0.5 trillion
13,386
3,968
Beginning 2015
2034
Replaced
Stay in service
& remarketed
43%
47%
057
Demand
by region
060
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Immigration from
Asia-Pacific
3% 3%
16%
5%
10%
25%
0,4% 0,4%
22%
18%
AsiaPacific
55%
43%
Europe
Middle East
North America
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Latin America
Trade from
Asia-Pacific
ECONOMY
The region will be a major beneficiary of
the decline in oil prices, for as long as they
last, with for example China, Japan, India,
and South Korea major net importers of oil.
Weakness in prices of minerals and other
commodities could however, less positively
affect others in the region. Asias economic
performance remains very dependent on
exports, but domestic sources of growth,
particularly private consumption, are
expected to play a larger role in the coming
years. Among emerging market regions,
Asia-Pacific, will continue to have high
economic growth. As in past, this is mainly
due to the regions combination of openness
to trade, high domestic saving rates, and a
relatively well-educated and disciplined
labour force. Thanks to these favourable
AIR TRAFFIC
factors, Asia-Pacific will continue to attract
the bulk of global foreign investment
flows heading to emerging markets. The
region is also destined to become the
Worlds dominant manufacturing centre
and the main consumer of non-oil primary
commodities. The longer-term outlook for
Asias potential growth depends crucially
on the regions ability to push through
macro-economic policies aimed at boosting
consumption and lowering savings rates.
Asia-Pacific will continue to lead World
economic growth, both in terms of real GDP
with an average of 4.5% per year and in trade
with an average of 5.3% per year, according
to forecasts.
Since the 90s, immigration within AsiaPacific has grown rapidly, particularly from
less-developed countries with greater
labour surpluses to fast-growing newly
industrialising countries. According to
the United Nation (UN) data bank, there
were almost 65 million immigrants from
Asia-Pacific in 2013, of which 55% have
moved intra-regionally within Asia-Pacific,
18% to North America and 16% to Europe.
Likewise, according to World trade
organisation (WTO) 43% of Asia-Pacifics
total trade in 2013 comes from within AsiaPacific, 25% from the Middle East and
another 22% from North America.
Since both Trade and immigration are
important drivers of air traffic, 55 % of AsiaPacifics total air traffic in 2014 was within
Asia-Pacific. Intra-regional traffic will gain
further importance in the next 20 years,
reaching 60% by 2034.
061
062
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
The market share of the airlines operating specifically in each subregion has followed a similar pattern, with airlines domiciled in the
PRC increasing their market share from 26% of Asia-Pacifics total
Available Seat per Kilometre (ASK) in 2004 to 33% in 2014.
8%
PRC
7%
6%
5%
2014
9%
Indian Sub.
Asia Emerging
1%
7%
9%
25%
1%
11%
36%
4%
Asia Developed
3%
World average
2%
Aus/NZ
1%
PRC
AUS/NZ
Asia Developed
Indian Sub.
Asia Emerging
Pacific
19%
17%
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
39%
27%
2004
REGIONAL DIVERSITY
In addition to its vast historical and cultural
diversity, countries in Asia-Pacific are also
at various levels of economic growth. While,
Australia/New Zealand and Asia developed
countries will grow at an average rate of
1.5% and 2.9% per year respectively. Asia
emerging, PRC and the Indian subcontinent
will become the drivers of growth in the
region, each forecast to grow at an average
rate of 4.0%, 6.7% and 5.9% per annum
respectively.
100
Domestic
60%
Intra-regional
Asia Developed
80
Asia Emerging
Aus/NZ
60
50%
Inter-continental
LCCS CONTINUE
THEIR DEVELOP-
MENT IN ASIAPACIFIC
40%
Indian Sub.
30%
40
20
20%
Intra-regional: within
Asia-Pacific
Inter-regional: between
Asia-Pacific and another
region
10%
Pacific
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: OAG
(Sept. data), Airbus
0%
Sources: OAG
(Sept. data), Airbus
Indian Sub
Asia Emerging
Aus./Nz
Asia Developed
PRC
Pacific
063
064
Flying by Numbers
60
28%
2
27
1
13
Results
114
76
52
20
19
17
2014
2020
2030
Basic needs
065
Flying by Numbers
High consumers
(>$70,000)
Emerging consumers
($7,500-$20,000)
INDIAN MIDDLE
INCOME TO GROW
TO 174 MILLION
HOUSEHOLDS
Sources: Oxford
economics, Airbus
CIS
5.9%
Europe
4.4%
North
America
4.9%
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
6.0%
6.3%
Africa
7.3%
Latin
America
5.9%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US
China
6.4%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
4.1%
4.8%
5.6%
4.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
AsiaPacific
World
2014-2024
Economy**
Real GDP
Real Trade
4.5%
5.3%
2024-2034
2014-2034
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
13,222
New deliveries
by segment
8,329
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
6.0%
Inter-regional
5.1%
Fleet*
9.0% - 9.5%
Fleet in service
8.5% - 9.0%
In 2015 In 2034
8.0% - 8.5%
5,275 13,222
Total
traffic
5.6%
20 year new
deliveries
Growth
7,947
New
deliveries
12,596
2,554
5,275
1,089
12,596
624
Replacement
4,649
7.5% - 8.0%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
066
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Whilst the Eurozone economy has had
difficulty gaining momentum, consumer
spending is accelerating. This together with
some continued monetary stimulus through
quantitative easing, euro depreciation,
expanding export markets and low oil
prices will all help support growth. In Central
Europe, beyond near term deleveraging
and structural reform priorities, it could be
expected that a renewal of capital inflows,
a rebound of exports and more robust
domestic demand will help economic
developments here.
Comparative growth of Europe GDP and ASKs from / to / within the region
8%
6%
4%
2%
Resilience
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Europe
Finding the
sweet spot
EUROPEAN OPERATORS
ARE ADAPTING THEIR
OFFER TO MARKET
DIVERSITY, LOOKING FOR
NEW GROWTH DRIVERS
LCC: +10.1%
FSC: -1.0%
067
068
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
North America
55%
Asia-Pacific
36%
Africa
58%
Worldwide
60%
LAC
65%
Heart of long
haul market
60% OF LONG HAUL
FLIGHTS CONNECT
TO EUROPE
069
070
Flying by Numbers
10.0
Norway
Ireland
UK
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Turkey
1.0
Sweden
Italy
Romania
Slovakia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EUROPE CONCENTRATES
NEARLY HALF OF
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST
ARRIVALS
CIS
Europe
4.6%
2.9%
North
America
Heart of
international
tourism
Results
Propensity
to travel
Germany
France
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Bulgaria
0.1
Switzerland
Flying by Numbers
2.8%
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
4.4%
4.6%
Central
Europe
12%
Other
international
tourists
arrivals
54%
International
tourists
arrivals in
Europe
46%
Western
Europe
33%
4.7%
Latin
America
Southern
Europe
41%
3.5%
Northern
Europe
14%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
3.9%
4.6%
4.1%
3.4%
3.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Europe
World
2014-2024
Economy**
Real GDP
Real Trade
1.7%
3.4%
2024-2034
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
7,208
2014-2034
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
5,052
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
2.9%
O&D traffic
growth forecast
Inter-regional
3.9%
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
4,093 7,208
0.024
Total
traffic
3.6%
3,115
New
deliveries
6,365
4,093
787
20 year new
deliveries
6,365
0.058
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
Growth
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Replacement
370
156
3,250
Stay in service
& Remarketed 843
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
071
072
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
OUTSTANDING FINANCIAL
RESULTS
ECONOMY
Consumer spending sustained by strong
employment growth, improved household
finances, low gasoline price, housing
market and capital expenditure recovery
have helped drive US economic growth
acceleration. Amongst mature advanced
economies, North America will remain the
growth leader thanks to a combination
of favourable factors including abundant
natural resources, highly developed financial
institutions, rapid immigrant absorption,
huge market size, science and technology
leadership, and a tremendous capacity for
innovation and entrepreneurship. US real
GDP growth is forecast to average 2.5%
per year in the 2014-2034 period, with
greater business fixed investment and R&D
spending offsetting the slowdown in labour
force growth. By 2034, North America will
still account for 21% of World economy (in
real terms).
7.2
4
4.2
2
0
North
America
1.7
2010
2011
2.3
2012
2013
2014
North American
airlines share of
worldwide profit
60%
2014
net profit
MARKET TRENDS
73%
SHARE OF CONNECTING ON
LONG HAUL FOR REGION
DOMICILED AIRLINES
18
NUMBER OF MEGACITIES IN
THE REGION IN 2034
30%
SHARE OF LCCS IN DOMESTIC
REGIONAL TRAFFIC
Source: Sabre, OAG, Airbus GMF 2015
0.67
INDEX OF COMPETITION
BETWEEN AIRLINES ON ORIGIN
& DESTINATION LONGHAUL
TRAFFIC FROM/TO THE REGION
56%
MARKET SHARE OF DOMICILED
AIRLINES IN TRAFFIC WITH
OTHER REGIONS
073
074
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Number of aircraft
4,500
4,000
3,500
100,00
3,000
10,00
2,500
2,000
0,01
1,500
1,000
0,10
500
0,00
0
10
20
30
40
0
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
Single-aisle
50
60
70
80
90
100
2014
Twin-aisle
400
14
Twin-aisle
Number of aircraft
350
12
300
10
250
200
150
4
North America
2
0
1959
Single-aisle
Note: as of 31/12/2014
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
World
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009 2014
100
50
0
0
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
40
Age (years)
075
076
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Results
120
119.5
115
CIS
4.4%
110
North
America
110.5
105
Europe
2.8%
1.8%
106.4
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
4.9%
7.1%
100
Africa
4.8%
95
2012
2013
Latin
America
2014
4.5%
5.0%
3.7%
2014
international
tourist arrivals
3.4%
+8.2%
North
America
World
2014-2024
2024-2034
2014-2034
Economy**
Real GDP
Real Trade
2.5%
4.6%
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
Traffic**
1.8%
Inter-regional
4.1%
Total RPK
traffic growth
3.1%
Intra-regional
& domestic
NEW DELIVERIES
4.6%
4.2%
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
4,182 6,095
Total
traffic
3.4%
6,095
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
4,733
Growth
1,913
4,182
New
deliveries
5,544
20 year new
deliveries
582
194
Replacement
5,544
3,631
35
Stay in service
& Remarketed
551
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
077
078
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
From 2003
to 2014
ASK FROM/TO/WITHIN
MIDDLE EAST HAS GROWN
FOUR TIMES
Middle
East
Middle East
2004
2005
2006
2007
World
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
079
080
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Africa
CIS
North America
Latin America
2010
2015
20%
15%
10%
5%
Such high growth is enabled by a large
proportion of connecting traffic. Middle
East carriers have increased their share of
connecting traffic over the past five years
from 28 to 34 percent. Compared to other
regions where connecting traffic represents
less than 17 percent, Middle East and North
America stand out with about a third of
passengers connecting in the region.
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Middle East
North America
Africa
Latin America
CIS
Asia-Pacific
Europe
40
30
Long-Haul
20
10
0
Share of
Connecting
passengers
SHARE OF LONG-HAUL
ASK IN 1995
47%
Short-Haul
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
SHARE OF LONG-HAUL
ASK IN 2014
69%
AMONG PASSENGERS
TRANSPORTED BY MIDDLE
EAST CARRIERS:
34%
2014
081
082
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Results
Middle East
Airlines
Direct
Connecting outside
the region
Connecting inside
the region
SHARE OF PASSENGERS
TRANSITING AND NOT
STARTING OR FINISHING
THEIR TRIP IN MIDDLE EAST
19%
CIS
6.6%
Europe
4.6%
North
America
7.1%
AsiaPacific
5.8%
Africa
90
6.3%
Middle
East
Note: as of 31/12/2013
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
083
6.6%
0%
Latin
America
7.7%
19%
31%
80
70
7.1%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
15%
4.1%
4.8%
6.0%
4.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Middle
East
World
60
2014-2024
2024-2034
2014-2034
Economy**
50
Real GDP
Real Trade
3.8%
4.2%
66%
69%
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
40
New deliveries
by segment
2,792
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
30
5.8%
Inter-regional
6.0%
20
Fleet*
10
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
1,018 2,792
886
Total
traffic
6.0%
Growth
1,774
1,018
20 year new
deliveries
547
New
deliveries
2,361
551
377
Replacement
2,361
587
Stay in service
& Remarketed
431
Middle East
North America
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
084
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Latin America
& Caribbean
Forecast
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2006
Q1
2006
Q4
2007
Q3
2008
Q2
2009
Q1
2009
Q4
2010
Q3
2011
Q2
2012
Q1
2012
Q4
2013
Q3
2014
Q2
2015
Q1
2015
Q4
2016
Q3
2017
Q2
United States
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Latin America
& Caribbean
085
086
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
80
Latin America
& Caribbean
73
Europe
71
Oceania
54
World
48
Asia
40
Africa
0%
82
20%
40%
60%
80%
2014
2030
100%
80%
2014
Latin America
1994-2014 ANNUAL
GROWTH ON AVERAGE
SINGLE-AISLE SEATS
0.8%
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
087
088
Flying by Numbers
089
Flying by Numbers
Results
LCCs in
Latin America
CIS
5.3%
Europe
3.5%
North
America
4.5%
LCCS MARKET
SHARE CONTINUOUSLY
INCREASING IN LATIN
AMERICA
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
5.9%
7.7%
Africa
5.0%
Latin
America
5.3%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
4.9%
Source: OAG
4.1%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Latin
America
30
World
2014-2024
Real GDP
Real Trade
60
3.6%
4.2%
50
35%
20
LCCs
30
Intra-regional
& domestic
5.3%
20
10
Fleet size*
2,801
Inter-regional
4.3%
10
Total
traffic
4.7%
Growth
1,535
1,266
Legacy airlines
0
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
1,266 2,801
0
1994
Fleet in service
evolution
New deliveries
by segment
1,992
Traffic**
40
15
2014-2034
Economy**
70
25
2024-2034
20 year new
deliveries
New
deliveries
2,510
382
108
Replacement
2,510
975
28
Stay in service
& Remarketed
291
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
8.5%
4.2%
CAGR ASKs
CAGR GDP
200
150
100
50
0
ASK
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
GDP
UNTAPPED POTENTIAL
Georgia
Ukraine
World
9.5%
Uzbekistan
Russia
10
Moldova
15
Kyrgyzstan
20
Kazakhstan
Fluctuations in oil prices coupled with wellknown political difficulties in the region
have stalled growth in Russia. 2015 will
be challenging, but the Rubbles flexible
exchange rate and strong reserves will help
soften the blow to the largest economy in
the region. Any downturn is expected to be
short-lived and at time of writing, the CIS as a
whole is forecast to return to positive growth
in 2016.
In 2014, a number of the countries in
the region maintained solid economic
performance. Uzbekistan and Moldovan
EXCELLENT PROSPECTS
FOR TRAVEL AND TOURISM
TO BECOME A STRONG
DRIVER OF INVESTMENT,
JOBS AND INCOME
IN THE REGION
Belarus
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Azerbaijan
CIS
Armenia
090
091
092
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
2004
51city pairs
2014
317city pairs
2004
2014
CONNECTING WITH THE EMERGING
ECONOMIES
Sources: OAG, Airbus
2003
Passengers (millions)
25
35
x 3.8
30
x 2.8
20
25
6
15
20
10
x 4.4
x 8.7
5
2004
2006
2008
2010
Emerging countries
2012
x 2.3
x 3.3
x 2.1
2014
Advanced countries
x 4.2
15
15.8%
Passengers (millions)
Passengers (millions)
40
CIS excluding
Russia
Russia
10
CAGR WITH
EMERGING COUNTRIES
2013
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Americas
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Americas
093
094
Flying by Numbers
Results
GROWTH IN DOMESTIC
TRAVEL
Russia is looking forward to a renaissance
in domestic travel as the latest economic
slowdown and local currency fluctuations
are making it more affordable for Russians
to visit domestic destinations instead of
taking outbound trips. Figures for 2014, are
encouraging: Russian carriers transported
17.9 percent more passengers on domestic
flights.
The high cost of transportation within
Russia is still the main barrier. With the
absence of low cost carriers on domestic
routes, the cost of the airfare is estimated
to often represent 50 percent of a tourists
total expenditure on a trip. The government
is supporting the development of domestic
tourism through a federal target programme
called Domestic and Inbound Tourism
Development 2011-2018, which aims to
increase the number of domestic trips by
150 percent.
NUMBER OF PASSENGERS
FLYING ON DOMESTIC
ROUTES INCREASED BY
Flying by Numbers
Passengers (millions)
100
90
80
70
CIS
60
4.3%
50
40
Europe
4.6%
North
America
30
4.4%
20
Middle
East
10
0
AsiaPacific
5.9%
6.6%
2013
Domestic
2014
CIS
Africa
International
5.0%
Latin
America
5.3%
17.9%
in 2014
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
5.5%
4.1%
4.2%
4.6%
4.8%
Total RPK
traffic growth
CIS
World
2014-2024
FOCUS ON:
TOURISM IN RUSSIA
Economy**
2.0%
Real GDP
Real Trade
Favourable exchange rates of the Ruble will
further boost inbound international tourism.
According to Xinhua news agency, Russia
has already become the most attractive
shopping destination for Chinese tourists,
surpassing Japan, South Korea, Thailand
and the US.
Preliminary figures for 2014, suggest that
China is taking the lead in terms of tourist visits
to Russia (10-15 percent growth). Inbound
tourism from Korea has increased by 70
percent after a visa simplification process
introduced in 2013, while inbound tourism
from Turkey has increased by 13 percent.
2.1%
2024-2034
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
2,016
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
4.3%
Inter-regional
5.1%
2014-2034
Total
traffic
4.8%
Growth
1,094
1,101
New
deliveries
1,288
922
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
922
2,016
Replacement
194
138
20 year new
deliveries
1,288
25
24
Stay in service
& Remarketed
728
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
095
096
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
1994
12.6%
2014
15.7%
2034
20.1%
In 2034,
Africa
1/5
It would be hard to find anyone who would disagree that Africa has
significant potential in terms of its economic development, growth
opportunities and air travel. Covering about 30 million km , Africa
is comprised of 54 countries, more than any other continent, even
surpassing Europe with 47, and Asia with 44. These countries
bring numerous assets, including young diverse populations, and
reserves of valuable and much sought after natural resources. The
diversity of its peoples and languages are matched only by the
diversity in its ground transportation infrastructure, from its modern
highways to at times impassible tracks. Aviation is and will continue
to be the best way to connect Africas countries, not only to each
other, but with the peoples and markets in the rest of the World.
097
098
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
80+
Male pop. in Africa
75-79
70-74
URBAN POPULATION
EXPECTED TO REACH
49% IN 2034
65-69
SHARE OF
THE AFRICAN
POPULATION LIVING
IN URBAN AREAS
Sources: UN Population
Division, Department of
Economic and Social
Affairs, (2014 revision)
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
100%
50%
0%
50%
100%
100%
50%
40%
30%
20%
60-64
60%
33%
28%
36%
40%
44%
49%
10%
0%
1984
CONSUMPTION PER
CAPITA 20-YEAR
GROWTH PER
ANNUM
1994
2004
2014
2024
2034
4%
0%
90%
80%
Secondary
Education
enrolment ratio
70%
AFRICAS 20-YEAR
CONSUMPTION PER
CAPITA (2.4%)
WILL EXCEED THAT OF
WORLD AVERAGE (2.3%)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
20 years
0%
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
OECD-members
AFRICAS ATTRACTIVENESS
World
South-Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
African
population
~60%
OF AFRICANS ARE
BELOW 24 YEARS OLD
44%
OF THE WORLD
POPULATION IS BELOW
THIS AGE
10%
Intra-African trade
Million USD
1,400,000
16%
1,200,000
14%
12%
1,000,000
10%
800,000
8%
600,000
6%
400,000
4%
200,000
2%
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
13%
ALMOST
OF TOTAL AFRICAN IMPORTS AND
EXPORTS ARE WITHIN AFRICA
0%
099
100
Flying by Numbers
25,000
100,000
x 14
x 44
20,000
80,000
15,000
60,000
10,000
40,000
5,000
20,000
0
2003
2013
2003
2012
70
60
x 1.5
50
x 10.5
1,500
40
1,000
30
20
Results
CIS
5.0%
Europe
4.7%
North
America
4.8%
2003
2013
2003
Africa
x14 in 10 years
7.3%
6.6%
CHINESE IMPORTS
FROM AFRICA
2013
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
500
10
0
Flying by Numbers
6.4%
Latin
America
5.0%
INTERNATIONAL O&D
PASSENGER TRAFFIC
x10.5 in 10 years
INTERNATIONAL O&D
TRAFFIC FROM/TO AFRICA
6.2%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
2004-2014
+132%
140,000
4.1%
5.1%
5.6%
4.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Africa
World
120,000
2014-2024
2014-2034
Economy**
100,000
Inter-continental traffic with Africa is largely
focused on Europe, which accounts for
almost 60%. However, in recent years, AsiaPacific and the Middle East have increasingly
gained importance representing more than
20% of traffic in 2014 compared to 15% ten
years ago. This progression is supported by
Africas exposure to business opportunities
with other emerging economies, particularly
in Asia and the focus of carriers from
the Middle East who see opportunity in
increasingly connecting Africa with the AsiaPacific region.
Domestic traffic within African countries
remains the primary market for African air
travellers. However, Intra-regional traffic
between African countries has grown
faster than domestic traffic over the last 10
years, supported by growing African urban
populations and African intra-regional trade.
2024-2034
Real GDP
Real Trade
4.6%
5.0%
80,000
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
60,000
Intra-regional
& domestic
6.4%
20,000
Inter-regional
5.5%
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latin America
Middle East
CIS
Europe
North America
Intra-Africa
Asia-Pacific
TRAFFIC TO/FROM/
WITHIN AFRICA
*Origin and Destination
*Year 2014 is based on
estimate from month of
September 2014 (x12)
Sources: Sabre GDD,
Airbus
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
598
1,615
1,615
Traffic**
40,000
New deliveries
by segment
834
Total
traffic
5.6%
New
deliveries
Growth
1,117
1,017
598
194
Replacement
100
20 year new
deliveries
58
1,117
31
Stay in service
& Remarketed
498
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
101
102
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Freighter
forecast
103
104
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
17
16
2014 growth
rate estimate
+4.5%
15
14
13
12
11
10
01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 01/12 01/132 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15
Air
Freight
GROWTH IS BACK
AND STRONG
After having stagnated or even decreased
for almost three years, the air freight industry
resumed its progress in 2014 by posting
4.5% growth compared to 2013. Additionally,
in the summer of 2014, total air freight traffic
surpassed for the first time the peak it reached
in 2011.
Air freight
volumes just
surpassed
the 2011 peak
GROWTH DRIVERS:
REGIONAL TRAFFIC
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EXPRESS TRAFFIC
105
106
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
80%
Annual growth
rate 2014-2034
INCLUDES BELLY
AND MAIN DECK
4.4%
5985nm
Los Angeles
Hong Kong
A350-1000
STRUCTURAL PAYLOAD
22,200KG
VOLUMETRIC PAYLOAD
20,900KG
Growth Rate
2014-2034
History
Forecast
400
Advanced
Advanced
2.6%
300
Emerging
Emerging
6.1%
Advanced
Emerging 80%
4.9%
200
100
Emerging
Advanced
4.9%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
107
108
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Cargo traffic
growth
4.4%
300
100
Belly traffic
growth
4.8%
51%
2014
Belly outpace
cargo growth
2034
Belly cargo
57%
200
RESULTS: MID-SIZE
FREIGHTERS, VERSATILE AND
COMPLEMENTARY TO BELLY
CAPACITY UTILISATION
Freighter
deliveries
Medium haul regional traffic will surge,
with the development of cargo networks
in regions such as intra-Asia, within
Africa and Latin America. This will drive
the need for mid-size aircraft, which
are both versatile and a compromise
between profit generation and risk mitigation during market downturns.
Belly capacity will continue to grow especially on long haul routes where new
cargo friendly passenger widebodies
are expected to progressively replace
large freighters thanks to very competitive economics.
World fleet
2034
2,687
2015
1,633
462
991
337
804
795
172
FREIGHTERS DELIVERIES
OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS
309
65
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
North America
89
1,500
50
Africa
1,130
1,000
609
617
77
Latin America
500
169
Small
freighters
Mid-Size
freighters
Large
freighters
109
110
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Summary &
methodology
111
112
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Summary
of results
113
114
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Origin-Destination Flow
Asia advanced - Asia emerging
Asia advanced - Australia/NZ
Asia advanced - Canada
Asia advanced - Caribbean
Asia advanced - Central America
Asia advanced - Central Europe
Asia advanced - CIS
Asia advanced - Indian SC
Asia advanced - Japan
Asia advanced - Middle East
Asia advanced - North Africa
Asia advanced - Pacific
Asia advanced - PRC
Asia advanced - Russia
Asia advanced - South Africa
Asia advanced - South America
Asia advanced - Sub Sahara Africa
Asia advanced - USA
Asia advanced - Western Europe
Asia emerging - Australia/NZ
Asia emerging - Canada
Asia emerging - Caribbean
Asia emerging - Central America
Asia emerging - Central Europe
Asia emerging - CIS
Asia emerging - Indian SC
Asia emerging - Japan
Asia emerging - Middle East
Asia emerging - North Africa
Asia emerging - Pacific
Asia emerging - PRC
Asia emerging - Russia
Asia emerging - South Africa
Asia emerging - South America
Asia emerging - Sub Sahara Africa
Asia emerging - USA
Asia emerging - Western Europe
Australia/NZ - Canada
Australia/NZ - Caribbean
Australia/NZ - Central America
Australia/NZ - Central Europe
Australia/NZ - CIS
Australia/NZ - Indian SC
Australia/NZ - Japan
Australia/NZ - Middle East
Australia/NZ - North Africa
Australia/NZ - Pacific
Australia/NZ - PRC
Australia/NZ - Russia
Australia/NZ - South Africa
Australia/NZ - South America
Australia/NZ - Sub Sahara Africa
Australia/NZ - USA
Australia/NZ - Western Europe
Canada - Caribbean
Canada - Central America
Canada - Central Europe
Canada - CIS
Origin-Destination Flow
Canada - Indian SC
Canada - Japan
Canada - Middle East
Canada - North Africa
Canada - Pacific
Canada - PRC
Canada - Russia
Canada - South Africa
Canada - South America
Canada - Sub Sahara Africa
Canada - USA
Canada - Western Europe
Caribbean - Central America
Caribbean - Central Europe
Caribbean - CIS
Caribbean - Indian SC
Caribbean - Japan
Caribbean - Middle East
Caribbean - North Africa
Caribbean - Pacific
Caribbean - PRC
Caribbean - Russia
Caribbean - South Africa
Caribbean - South America
Caribbean - Sub Sahara Africa
Caribbean - USA
Caribbean - Western Europe
Central America - Central Europe
Central America - CIS
Central America - Indian SC
Central America - Japan
Central America - Middle East
Central America - North Africa
Central America - Pacific
Central America - PRC
Central America - Russia
Central America - South Africa
Central America - South America
Central America - Sub Sahara Africa
Central America - USA
Central America - Western Europe
Central Europe - CIS
Central Europe - Indian SC
Central Europe - Japan
Central Europe - Middle East
Central Europe - North Africa
Central Europe - Pacific
Central Europe - PRC
Central Europe - Russia
Central Europe - South Africa
Central Europe - South America
Central Europe - Sub Sahara Africa
Central Europe - USA
Central Europe - Western Europe
CIS - Indian SC
CIS - Japan
CIS - Middle East
CIS - North Africa
Origin-Destination Flow
CIS - Pacific
CIS - PRC
CIS - Russia
CIS - South Africa
CIS - South America
CIS - Sub Sahara Africa
CIS - USA
CIS - Western Europe
Domestic Asia advanced
Domestic Asia emerging
Domestic Australia/NZ
Domestic Brazil
Domestic Canada
Domestic Caribbean
Domestic Central America
Domestic Central Europe
Domestic CIS
Domestic India
Domestic Indian SC
Domestic Japan
Domestic Mexico
Domestic Middle East
Domestic North Africa
Domestic Pacific
Domestic PRC
Domestic Russia
Domestic South Africa
Domestic South America
Domestic Sub Sahara Africa
Domestic Turkey
Domestic USA
Domestic Western Europe
Indian SC - Japan
Indian SC - Middle East
Indian SC - North Africa
Indian SC - Pacific
Indian SC - PRC
Indian SC - Russia
Indian SC - South Africa
Indian SC - South America
Indian SC - Sub Sahara Africa
Indian SC - USA
Indian SC - Western Europe
Intra Asia advanced
Intra Asia emerging
Intra Australia/NZ
Intra Caribbean
Intra Central America
Intra Central Europe
Intra CIS
Intra Indian SC
Intra Middle East
Intra North Africa
Intra Pacific
Intra South America
Intra Sub Sahara Africa
Intra Western Europe
Japan - Middle East
Origin-Destination Flow
Japan - North Africa
Japan - Pacific
Japan - PRC
Japan - Russia
Japan - South Africa
Japan - South America
Japan - Sub Sahara Africa
Japan - USA
Japan - Western Europe
Mexico - USA
Middle East - North Africa
Middle East - Pacific
Middle East - PRC
Middle East - Russia
Middle East - South Africa
Middle East - South America
Middle East - Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East - USA
Middle East - Western Europe
North Africa - Pacific
North Africa - PRC
North Africa - Russia
North Africa - South Africa
North Africa - South America
North Africa - Sub Sahara Africa
North Africa - USA
North Africa - Western Europe
Pacific - PRC
Pacific - Russia
Pacific - South Africa
Pacific - South America
Pacific - Sub Sahara Africa
Pacific - USA
Pacific - Western Europe
PRC - Russia
PRC - South Africa
PRC - South America
PRC - Sub Sahara Africa
PRC - USA
PRC - Western Europe
Russia - South Africa
Russia - South America
Russia - Sub Sahara Africa
Russia - USA
Russia - Western Europe
South Africa - South America
South Africa - Sub Sahara Africa
South Africa - USA
South Africa - Western Europe
South America - Sub Sahara Africa
South America - USA
South America - Western Europe
Sub Sahara Africa - USA
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
USA - Western Europe
115
116
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
SUMMARY DATA
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
834
Small Twin-Aisle
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Middle
East
20 Year new
deliveries
Small
38
319
81
84
74
609
5,184
Mid-size
24
113
22
122
37
25
375
718
194
2,395
Large
10
77
14
28
19
77
225
377
35
1,275
TOTAL
72
509
44
231
121
49
526
1,552
2,361
5,544
31,781
8,329
1,101
5,052
1,992
886
4,733
22,927
194
2,554
138
787
382
547
582
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
58
1,089
25
370
108
551
31
624
24
156
28
1,117
12,596
1,288
6,365
2,510
North America
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
834
Small Twin-Aisle
Latin
America
& Caribbean
20 Year new
deliveries
North
America
Europe
Middle
East
North America
20 Year new
deliveries
AsiaPacific
Small
38
319
81
84
74
609
5,372
Mid-size
30
185
35
159
68
55
598
1,130
314
2,734
Large
17
222
25
79
85
188
617
423
113
1,550
TOTAL
85
726
68
319
153
145
860
2,356
2,457
5,878
32,585
North America
20 Year new
deliveries
8,329
1,101
5,052
1,992
886
4,733
22,927
198
2,579
140
796
389
552
718
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
62
1,179
39
413
132
596
36
726
32
192
29
1,130
12,813
1,312
6,453
2,542
Middle East
Africa
AsiaPacific
CIS
Europe
Small
Mid-size
72
13
37
31
30
223
412
Large
145
11
51
66
111
392
13
217
24
88
32
96
334
804
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Africa
Europe
TOTAL
CIS
CIS
TOTAL
20 Year new
deliveries
AsiaPacific
Europe
TOTAL
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Africa
CIS
Middle
East
CIS
Europe
Middle
East
North America
117
118
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Demand Forecast
Backlogs and
retirements
assumptions
Airline
Calibration
Traffic
Forecast
Passenger
methodology
Airlines
Operations
Forecast
Capacity
Frequency
Model
Network
Forecast
FORECASTING TRAFFIC
The objective of the traffic forecast is to
assess the quantity of passengers travelling
by air. Initially, all countries are grouped into
21 traffic regions, based on geographical
proximity and level of socio-economic
development. Each region pair defines a
non-oriented traffic flow, assuming that
outbound and inbound passenger traffic is
balanced. Whenever a part of a traffic region
develops significantly different from the rest
of the region, a new, specific flow is created,
taking into consideration some more countryrelated specific characteristics. This process
resulted in 203 flows for the GMF 2015. The
main input data for the traffic forecast are
historical traffic volumes as well as large sets
Airline
Fleet
Build-Up
New
Deliveries
119
120
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Number of airlines
THE AIRLINE
CALIBRATION PROCESS
7%
FORECASTING NETWORK
Airline networks evolve over time and airlines
keep on adding and removing routes from
their network, changing the supply of travel
from the passenger standpoint. The evolution
of the network with new opened and closed
routes shifts the demand from one routing
to another, with an impact sometimes even
visible at a level as high as the traffic flow level.
Furthermore new routes tend to fragment the
market as they partially absorb traffic from the
existing network and therefore impact the
route-per-route traffic evolution. The network
forecast aims at quantifying these impacts.
Among the very large set of potential new
routes, a subset of reasonable candidates is
devised for each airline, based on the carriers
current network and the potential size of
new markets. This set of routes is fed into
a Quality of Service Index- based model,
which determines for each new route the
traffic potential and the point in time when it
could be opened.
FORECASTING AIRCRAFT
DEMAND
3%
5%
8%
18%
32%
47%
29%
6%
18%
8%
19%
Installed seats in service
Global Network
LCC
Major Network
Regional
Small Network
120
Number of airlines
111
100
Open Demand
83
79
80
68
60
46
Backlog
Virtual aircraft
by seat category
Real aircraft
(known product)
Stay in service
40
40
30
28
35
31
28
28
22
20
22
Real aircraft
(existing product)
Real aircraft
(existing product)
0
Asia
Canada
Central Central
America Europe
CIS
Europe
Indian
Middle
Subcontinent East
North
Africa
Pacific
PRC
South
America
Sub
Sahara
USA
121
122
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Threshold depending
on market characteristics
200
150
100
Frequency
&
Capacity
increase
Frequency
increase
Capacity
increase
50
2 HAND AIRCRAFT
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
123
124
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Historical
traffic data
analysis
Airline
Fleet
calibration
Passenger
forecast
Cargo
capacity
needed
Belly
capacity
available
Econometric
models
Total
traffic
forecast
Freight
forecast
methodology
Retirement
Freighter
demand
Aircraft
125
126
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Express
evolution
Conversion
vs new built
Belly capacity
From pax GMF
Utilisation calibration
Load factors calibration
Air cargo
trends
Commodities
demand
Fuel Price
8,000 routes
8
6
Forecast
4
2
0
1998 2002
Real
consumption
GDP
Drivers
Consumer
behaviour
TRAFFIC FORECAST
Once the calibration of an airline has been
carried out, the first step in the traffic forecast
is assessing the relationship between
macro-economic trends and the cargo
traffic, GDP, Real Income, Investments,
Exports/Imports, industrial production and
many other parameters are used in our
econometric models to assess the best
comparison to growth in traffic. Alongside
these macro-economic factors, the analysis
of historical data allows us to identify and
understand the multiple trends involved in
the evolution of the market, such as modal
shifts for certain commodities.
Exports/
Imports
Industrial
production
GLOBAL INPUTS TO GENERATE A LONG TERM FORECAST FOR TRAFFIC & FLEETS
150 flows
2008
2014
2020
2026
2032
Specific domestic
markets models
127
128
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
337
51
795
16
65
Middle East
34
309
45
North America
Asia-Pacific
27 50
Africa
21 77
Latin America
129
130
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
FREIGHTER FORECAST
the freighter forecast for the next 20 years
estimates the number of aircraft required
to accommodate the cargo traffic growth.
The demand is divised into four neutral size
categories strarting at ten tonnes, including
new build and converted aircraft. Thanks
to these virtual categories, it is possible to
assess witch aircraft size, on which flow,
best suits the market. Our freighter forecast
is the result of the analysis of the behaviour
of nearly 200 different airlines.
1,500
1,130
1,000
1 145
412
609
617
718
500
392
225
0
Small
Mid-Size
Large
131
132
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
133
P
roduct performance risks, as well as
programme development and management risks;
C
ustomer, supplier and subcontractor
performance or contract negotiations,
including financing issues;
C
ompetition and consolidation in the
aerospace and defence industry;
S
ignificant collective bargaining labour
disputes;
T
he outcome of political and legal
processes, including the availability of
government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and
space procurement budgets;
R
esearch and development costs in
connection with new products;
L
egal, financial and governmental risks
related to international transactions;
L
egal and investigatory proceedings
and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement contained in
this presentation/publication speaks as of the
date of this presentation/publication release.
Airbus Group undertakes no obligation to
publicly revise or update any forward-looking
statements in light of new information, future
events or otherwise.
market.forecast@airbus.com
#AGMF
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