Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

March 15,2016
Vol 7,Issue III

www.ricepluss.com

www.riceplusmagazine.blogspot.com

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

Vietnam Ships 150,500 Tons of Rice from

Saigon Port in February 23 - March 9, 2016
Vietnam rice exporters have shipped around 150,500 tons of rice from Saigon port, Reuters
quotes industry reports.
Shipments include 48,400 tons to the Philippines; 28,100 tons to Indonesia, 29,000 tons to Cuba;
22,000 tons to West Africa and 23,000 tons to other nations.The Saigon Port is the country's
largest port located on Saigon river in Ho Chi Minh City.

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap Chicago Rough Rice Futures Trade Higher to
Begin the Week on Bullish Note
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 12 cents were cwt (about $3 per ton) higher
at $10.345 per cwt (about $230 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results;
Soybeans closed unchanged at $8.9575 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.6% higher at $4.7875
per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% higher at $3.6875 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Monday, shaking off a decline in oil prices ahead of the Federal
Reserve's meeting later in the week. The major averages opened slightly lower and crept higher
throughout the day. The major data for the week include retail sales due Tuesday, ahead of the
highly anticipated Fed meeting statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday. No
move on rates is expected, but policymaker commentary will be scrutinized for indications on
the path of tightening. Oil extended losses as hopes of a coordinated production freeze faded.
The Iranian News Agency Shana quoted Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak saying
Russia accepts Iranian rights to increase oil output post sanctions, according to Reuters.
Over the weekend, Iran Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said the country would join discussions
among other producers about a possible oil production freeze after its own output reached four
million barrels per day, according to a Reuters article citing Iran's ISNA news agency. European
stocks held higher but off session highs as declines in oil weighed. Asian equities closed higher,
with the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai composite both up more than 1.7%.In afternoon trade, the
Dow Jones industrial average gained 35 points, or 0.2%, to 17,248. The S&P 500 declined 0.8
points, or 0.04%, to 2,021, with materials leading six sectors lower and consumer discretionary
the top gainer. The Nasdaq composite gained 6 points, or 0.13%, to 4,754. Gold is seen trading
about 1.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 3.1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading
about 0.5% higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were 382 contracts traded, down from 1,043 contracts traded on Thursday. Open
interest the number of contracts outstanding on Friday increased by 40 contracts to 12,440.
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Philippines Defers Additional Rice Imports

on Adequate Supplies, Says NFA Official
Mar 14, 2016

The National Food Authority (NFA) of the Philippines has deferred plans to import additional
500,000 tons of rice due to adequate supplies, The Phil Star Global quoted the NFA Public
Affairs Head.
He noted that the Food Security Council and the NFA Council have decided not to approve the
proposed additional 500,000 tons of rice in the second quarter. The council will meet sometime
in April or May to determine whether theres a need to import in the third and fourth quarter, he
said.
Last year, the government approved 500,000 tons of rice imports, for delivery in the first quarter
of 2016. In January this year, the NFA planned to import 400,000-500,000 tons of additional rice
in the second quarter through a government-to-government (G2G) deal with Vietnam, Thailand
or Cambodia or allow private traders to import under the WTO minimum access volume (MAV)
rule.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) estimates the Philippines 2016 first half paddy rice
production at around 8.2 million tons, down about 1.5% from around 8.32 million tons in 2015,
due to on-going dry weather conditions. The government has put in place a program to address
the impact of El Nino on agriculture. It had established a P 19 billion (around $409 million) El
Nino mitigation fund which will be used to improve irrigation systems and to support the foodfor-work program in drought-affected areas.
The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) estimates that around 131,649 tons of rice
worth 5.33 billion pesos (around $114.2 million) has been lost since February 2015. However,
the DA noted that the crop losses are lesser than expected.

Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their

Quotes Today; Vietnam Rice Quotes mixed
Mar 14, 2016

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $370$380 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken
rice, 100% broken rice by about $5-$10 per ton to around $375-$385 per ton, $360-$370 per ton
$345-$355 per ton respectively and lowered their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to
around $445-$455 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged
today.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $365
- $375 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $335 - $345 per
ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $360- $370 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$335- $345 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $305 $315 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $50 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $15 per ton
discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $265 - $275 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan
broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

Government of Nigeria Assures Stable Rice

Prices from April 2016
Mar 14, 2016

The government of Nigeria assured that it would stabile the price of rice from April to make it
more affordable to all the everyone in the country, All Africa Global Media quotes the
Agriculture Ministry.
He noted that price stability of rice is necessary given its demand. However, he did not specify
the details of how the government would stabilize rice.
"The government will continue to support farmers to encourage agricultural activity, enhance
food security and employment generation in the country," he was quoted.
Recently, prices of rice and other coarse grains increased in January due to a sharp depreciation
of the Naira on the parallel market, coupled with reduced supplies of foreign exchange reserves,
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

and persisting civil conflict in northern Nigeria, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO).
Nigeria is the world's second largest importer of rice and imports over half of its annual rice
consumption demand. The government of Nigeria is aiming to attain self-sufficiency in rice
production in the next two years and stop imports.
USDA estimates Nigeria to produce around 2.709 million tons of rice and import around 2.5
million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (October September) to meet a consumption demand of
around 5.85 million tons.

Indica Paddy Rice Acreage Declines Sharply

in 2016 On Increasing Imports from Asian
LDCs
Mar 14, 2016

Based on the first results of the survey on the current sowing, the Ente Nazionale Risi (ENR), the
National Agency for Rice, expects the overall Italian rice growing area to increase in 2016. The
current results of the survey show that the Italian rice acreage currently reached around 230,000
hectares, up about 1% from around 227,000 hectares in 2015.
While the acreage for japonica paddy varieties increased about 3% to around 197,000 hectares
from around 192,000 hectares in 2015, the indica paddy acreage declined about 6% to around
33,000 hectares from around 35,000 hectares in 2015.
The decline in Indica paddy acreage is attribute to increasing milled rice imports from Asian
least developed countries (LDCs). Italy's Indica paddy acreage more than halved from around
71.446 hectares in 2013, according to the ENR report.

Global Rice Quotes

March 15th, 2016
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade

375-385

Vietnam 5% broken 375-385

India 5% broken

365-375

Pakistan 5% broken

335-345

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

Myanmar 5% broken 420-430

Cambodia 5% broken 410-420

U.S. 4% broken

440-450

Uruguay 5% broken 445-455

Argentina 5% broken 435-445

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 355-365

Vietnam 25% broken 360-370

Pakistan 25% broken 305-315

Cambodia 25% broken

India 25% broken

395-405

330-340

U.S. 15% broken (sacked)

460-470

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

370-380

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

NQ

India parboiled 5% broken stxd

350-360

480-490

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 520-530

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%
Vietnam Jasmine

665-675

445-455

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ

India basmati 2% broken

Cambodia Phka Mails

755-765

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super

330-340

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

Vietnam 100% broken

345-355

Pakistan 100% broken stxd

285-295

Cambodia A1 Super 335-345

India 100% broken stxd

265-275

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ

U.S. pet food 280-290

Brazil half grain

NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

USDA Forecasts 2016 Global Rice Trade to

Decline 2% y/y to 41.7 Million Tons

In its March 2016 Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2016 global rice trade at around 41.7 million

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

tons, down about 2% from an estimated 42.45 million tons in 2015, and up about 100,000 tons from last
month's forecast of around 41.6 million tons.

Weaker shipments from Australia, India, Cambodia, and the U.S. will not be fully offset by
increased shipments from Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, and Uruguay, says the USDA.
The USDA forecasts lower exports from Cambodia, India and China. It forecasts Cambodia's
2016 rice exports (both official and unofficial) to decline about 18% y/y to around 900,000 tons
based on larger expected sales to China. It expects India's 2016 rice exports to decline about 22%
y/y to around 8.6 million tons. The USDA lowered export forecasts for China's 2016 rice exports
to 350,000 tons based on a recent slowdown in shipment pace.
On the 2016 import side, the USDA forecasts higher imports from China and Indonesia. It
forecasts China's 2016 rice imports to decline about 3% y/y to around 5 million tons. It forecasts
Indonesia's 2016 rice imports to increase 67% y/y to around 2 million tons based on expectations
of a smaller crop.

India Rice Stocks in Central Pool Stand at

29.234 Million Tons as of March 1, 2016; Up
23% from Previous Year

Indias rice stocks in the central pool as of March 1, 2016 stood at around 29.234 million tons
(including a milled equivalent of about 9.81 million tons of paddy), up about 23% from around
23.794 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to data from the Food
Corporation of India (FCI). The increase in stocks can be contributed to higher than expected
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

paddy procurement by the FCI and government agencies in the KMS 2015-16 (October September). The FCI and other government agencies procured around 28.4 million tons as of
March 2, 2016, up about 21% from around 23.42 million tons last year, the Economic Times
quoted Food Ministry sources.
Month-over-month, India's rice stocks in the central pool are up about 2% from around 28.95
million tons recorded on February 1, 2016. However, current rice stocks are up from the required
buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 7.61 million tons for this time of the year, according
to the FCI.
Total food grain stocks (including rice and wheat) in the central pool stand at around 46.233
million tons as of March 1, 2016, up about 6% from last year's stock of around 43.618 million
tons, and down about 6% from last month's stock of around 49.329 million tons. Wheat stocks
stand at around 16.865 million tons, down about 14% from last year's stock of around 19.525
million tons and down about 17% from last month's stock of around 20.335 million tons.
The government of India had revised the buffer norms for food grains, including rice, in the
Central Pool in January 2015. According to the new norms, buffer stocks for food grains to be
maintained with the FCI at this part of the year is 21.41 million tons.

Vietnam Urged to Formulate New

Production, Export Policies to Cope with
Increasing Competition
A leading rice expert in Vietnam has urged the Vietnamese government to focus on formulating
new production and exports to cope with increasing competition from Thailand and Cambodia,
according to local sources.
He noted that recently, Cambodia's rice exports to Vietnam's major export destination China
have increased significantly. Cambodia's rice exports to China in 2015 more than doubled to
around 116,000 tons from around 48,739 tons in 2014.
Though some experts are expecting Cambodia is feared to offer a stiff competition to Vietnam in
the near future, he said Vietnamese rice has its own advantages over the Cambodian rice.
Cambodian rice growers prefer high-quality rice with low yield, but Vietnamese rice producers
prefer low-quality and high-yielding rice. But he says China still needs low-cost rice for majority
of its people.
The expert advises that Vietnamese rice growers should not focus on competing with Thailand
and Cambodia in growing high-quality rice because it is more profitable to grow high-yielding
rice. However, he warns them to be cautious about the increasing threat from climate change and
salt water intrusion.

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

He says they can overcome the negative effects from climate change and salt water intrusion by
reducing rice cultivation in saline areas and restrict to only one crop in rainy season. Farmers can
benefit by considering options like cultivating shrimp instead of growing the second rice crop.
He also noted that Vietnam need not worry about Thailand's moves to divert water from the
Mekong River to help its rice farmers in the North East region.

Vietnam Needs $1.515 Billion to Cope with

Drought, Salinity Damages, Says Agriculture
Minister
The government of Vietnam will need about 34 trillion dong (around $1.515 billion) to cope with
damages from drought and salinity, Bloomberg quotes the Agriculture Ministry.

The Minister confirmed and about 10% of 1.5 million hectares of rice planted in winter-spring
crop in Mekong delta is hurt by drought. He also noted that saline intrusion has damaged about
one million tons of rice.
Experts opine that the saline intrusion's is likely to peak by mid-April.

USDA Forecasts 2016 Global Rice Trade to

Decline 2% y/y to 41.7 Million Tons

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

In its March 2016 Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2016 global rice trade at around 41.7
million tons, down about 2% from an estimated 42.45 million tons in 2015, and up about
100,000 tons from last month's forecast of around 41.6 million tons.
Weaker shipments from Australia, India, Cambodia, and the U.S. will not be fully offset by
increased shipments from Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, and Uruguay, says the USDA.
The USDA forecasts lower exports from Cambodia, India and China. It forecasts Cambodia's
2016 rice exports (both official and unofficial) to decline about 18% y/y to around 900,000 tons
based on larger expected sales to China. It expects India's 2016 rice exports to decline about 22%
y/y to around 8.6 million tons. The USDA lowered export forecasts for China's 2016 rice exports
to 350,000 tons based on a recent slowdown in shipment pace.
On the 2016 import side, the USDA forecasts higher imports from China and Indonesia. It
forecasts China's 2016 rice imports to decline about 3% y/y to around 5 million tons. It forecasts
Indonesia's 2016 rice imports to increase 67% y/y to around 2 million tons based on expectations
of a smaller crop.

UPDATE: Iraq Buys 30,000 Tons of

Argetnine Rice
Mar 14, 2016

Iraq has purchased 30,000 tons of Argentine rice at $468 per ton (c&f free out), reportedly the
lowest quote received, trade sources say. Another offer from Argentina was quoted at $492 per
ton (c&f free out) for 60,000 tons.
Two offers from the U.S. included $561 per ton (c&f free out) for 60,000 tons and $573.9 per ton
(c&f free out) for 100,000 tons.
Uruguay rice was offered at $4478 per ton for 30,000 tons.
Indian rice was also offered at $478 per ton (c&f free out) for 90,000 tons despite Indian origin
rice was not requested in the tender.
The rice was sought for delivery between March and April this year. The deadline for submission
was March 8, 2016; offers were valid till March 14, 2016.
Iraq passed off the previous tender for 90,000 tons U.S. origin rice, which closed on February
21, 2016, after submission of uninvited cheaper offers from Uruguay and Argentina.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

Indonesia Launches Paddy Rice Purchase

Program to Stabilize Prices
Mar 14, 2016

The government of Indonesia has launched a paddy rice purchase program to stabilize paddy
prices at the farmers' level, Reuters quoted local sources.
The program was launched by the Agriculture Minister on Saturday. He noted that the state
logistics agency Bulog will purchase paddy directly from farmers under this program, which
mainly aims to cut the distribution chain as well as reduce the involvement of middle men. With
the Bulog directly purchasing paddy, farmers would be encouraged to plant more rice and
contribute to a higher output in the country, he added.The Minister also noted that currently,
price of paddy at the farmers' level was only Rp 3,700 per kilogram (around $289 per ton) and
the middle men are benefited to a greater extent. He noted that middle men buy from farmers at
much lower than the government's sanctioned reference price (HPP) of Rp 4,600 per kilogram
(around $360 per ton).
Retail rice prices in Indonesia have been increasing September 2015. They stood at around 10.89
million rupiah per ton (around $810) in February 2016, according to the data from the UNs
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Firm

Slightly despite the IGB Booking One
Argentinian Cargo
Mar 15, 2016

The U.S. cash market was slightly firmer today despite news that the Iraqi Grain board
overlooked U.S. origin offers on their latest tender and purchased 30K tons from Argentina.
Analysts note that the IGB booked 1 cargo of Argentinian rice which was the cheapest offer of
any origin at $468 PMT CIF Umm Qasr Free Out.
Many market participants were disappointed that the U.S. did not receive any of the business;
however, others are hopeful that Iraq will issue another tender soon giving the U.S. a second
chance at booking some business.

USDA Forecasts 2015-16 Global Rice

Production to Decline 2% y/y to 471.09
Million Tons on Lower Acreage

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

In its March 2016 Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice production
(milled basis) at around 471.09 million tons, down about 2% from last years 480.7 million tons
due to an expected decline in acreage as well as decline in average yields, which are likely to be
affected by adverse weather conditions in key growing areas. However, the USDA's projection is
up from last month's projection of around 465.5 million tons. South Asia, Southeast Asia, and
North America account for most of the projected decline in 2015-16 global rice production,
according to the USDA. The U.S. agency also expects production to decline slightly in South
America also in 2015-16.
This month, the USDA lowered 2015-16 production prospects mainly for Indonesia and Peru. It
has raised production for India.
The USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage at 157.7 million hectares, down from an
estimated 159.95 million hectares in 2014-15, and slightly down from its previous month's
estimate of about 158.5 million tons. The USDA is projecting the rice area to be smaller than the
previous year in Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Thailand, and
the U.S. Much of this area decline was due to adverse weather attributed to El Nino, says the
USDA.
The USDA forecasts the average global yield at 4.45 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis),
slightly down from 4.46 tons per hectare in 2014-15.
The USDA estimates 2015-16 global rice consumption and residual use at around 484.2
million tons, up about 1.6 million tons from last year, and slightly up from last month's forecast
of around 483.7 million tons. India accounts for most of this months upward revision in global
consumption, according to the USDA. It forecasts 2015-16 rice consumption to increase
in Brazil, China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam. On the other hand, it forecasts consumption to
decline in South Korea and the U.S. during the year. Consumption is projected to exceed
production for the third consecutive year, says the USDA.
Accordingly, the U.S. agency estimates 2015-16 global rice ending stocks to decline by about
13% y/y to around 90.5 million tons, and up about 1% from last month's forecast of around 89.3
million tons. Despite this month's upward revision, global ending stocks are lowest since 200708, says the USDA.
The USDA forecasts global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.7%, down from 21.5% last year, and the
lowest since 2006-07.

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