Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
com
Rs '00 cr
FY10
6,245
3.2
4,565
3.0
1,163
10,245
15.9
3,034
10.2
7,211
18.5
4,185
6.5
3,390
5.2
2,054
3.2
FY11
7,931
27.0
5,699
24.8
2,186
11,973
16.9
3,790
24.9
8,183
13.5
3,736
4.8
2,523
3.2
1,396
1.8
FY12
8,892
12.1
6,298
10.5
1,217
13,044
8.9
4,124
8.8
8,920
9.0
5,160
5.7
3,943
4.4
2,428
2.7
FY13
10,362
16.5
7,403
17.5
1,374
14,104
8.1
4,136
0.3
9,967
11.7
4,906
4.9
3,659
3.6
1,774
1.8
FY14
11,387
9.9
8,159
10.2
1,989
15,872
12.5
5,539
33.9
10,333
3.7
5,306
4.7
3,848
3.4
1,564
1.4
FY15RE
12,514
9.9
9,085
11.4
2,178
16,812
5.9
5,690
2.7
11,122
7.6
5,126
4.1
3,625
2.9
1,013
0.8
FY16BE
14,495
15.8
9,198
1.3
2,217
17,775
5.7
6,005
5.5
11,769
5.8
5,556
3.9
3,945
2.8
995
0.7
budget special
Key proposals
budget special
Sharekhan
budget special
Tax as % of GDP
Personal tax
Tax slabs, the surcharge and education cess remain unchanged. However, with a view to increasing the tax contribution
of the super rich, an additional surcharge of 2% has been levied.
Continuing the last years relief for individual tax payers, the finance minister has announced further exemptions and deductions to
boost savings.
Investments made in the Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme will be eligible for deduction under section 80C of the Income Tax
Act. Further, interest accruing on deposits in such accounts will be exempt from income tax. The withdrawal from the
scheme in accordance with the rules will also be tax exempt. This deduction under section 80C is amended to provide
for deposits during the year by the parent or legal guardian in the name of any girl child of the individual parent or
guardian. These amendments will take effect retrospectively from April 1, 2014.
Deductions under section 80D in relation to health insurance premium increased from Rs15,000 to Rs25,000. The deduction has
been further enhanced for senior citizens from Rs20,000 to Rs30,000. Further, every senior citizen above the age of 80 years who
is not covered by health insurance will be allowed deduction of Rs30,000 towards medical expenditure.
The limit for differently abled persons under section 80DD is enhanced to Rs80,000.
Deductions under section 80CCC limit on deduction on account of contribution to a pension fund and the new pension
scheme increased from Rs1 lakh to Rs1.5 lakh.
Additional deduction under section 80CCD of Rs50,000 for contribution to the new pension scheme under section 80CCD.
Transport allowance exemption is being increased from Rs800 to Rs1,600 per month.
Tax deductions
Amount (Rs)
25,000
Exemption u/s 10
Transport allowance
19,200
Total benefit
150,000
50,000
200,000
444,200
FY2015-16
Tax slabs
Tax rate #
(Rs)
(%)
Up to 250,000
Nil
250,001-500,000
10.3
500,001-1,000,000
20.3
Above 1,000,000
30.9
# including education cess on income tax, and secondary and higher education cess on income tax at the rate of 2% and 1%
respectively plus 10% surcharge on income upto Rs1 crore and 12% surcharge on income exceeding Rs1 crore
Sharekhan
budget special
Volume
Weighted average
contribution
excise hike
for ITC
for ITC
cigarettes
Size
2014-15
2015-16
% chg
1,150.0
1,437.5
25.0%
13%
1,650.0
1,897.5
15.0%
67%
Longs
2,250.0
2,587.5
15.0%
5%
Kings
3,290.0
3,783.5
15.0%
16%
Small
Item
15.8%
In Union Budget 2015-16 the government has increased the excise duty on cigarettes by 25% for less than 65mm cigarettes
and by 15% for the other categories. This is the fourth consecutive year of above 15% increase in excise duty on
cigarettes.
For ITC the weighted average excise duty hike stands at about 16%. ITC has to take another hike of 17-18% in the
cigarette portfolio to increase the earnings before interest and tax by 15%. This will put more pressure on the cigarette
sales volume.
We believe ITCs cigarette sales volume would decline by 6% in FY2016 (we had earlier factored in a 4% sales volume
decline). We also expect the cigarette sales volume to remain flat in FY2017. This will result in a decline in the earnings
estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 by 1% and 3% respectively (we expect the Street to downgrade the earnings estimate
for FY2016 by 2-3%).
The stock has already corrected by 8% after the mid-teen excise duty hike in the Union Budget. Going ahead, the key
monitorables will be the value-added tax rate hike on cigarettes in the budget of the key states and implementation of
any anti-tobacco law in the coming months. We advise investors to buy ITC on further correction in the stock price.
Sectoral analysis
Sector
Key announcements
Overall
impact
Key companies
to be affected
Positive
Positive
Positive
Force Motors
Positive
Styrolution ABS
Positive
Coromandel Fertilisers,
Tata Chemicals, GSFC
Positive
Rama Phosphate
Positive
Contd....
Sharekhan
budget special
Sectoral analysis
Sector
Key announcements
Overall
impact
Key companies
to be affected
NBFCs
Positive
Positive
Negative
Negative
Positive
Positive
Positive
Positive
Positive
SKS Microfinance
Positive
Positive
Positive
Electrification of the remaining 20,000 villages including offgrid Solar Power by 2020
Positive
Positive
Crompton Greaves,
Havells, Surya Roshni,
Eveready
Positive
Finolex Cables,
Sterlite Tech
Contd....
budget special
Sectoral analysis
Sector
Key announcements
Overall
impact
Renewable energy
Positive
Key companies
to be affected
Suzlon Energy, PTC
India Financial
Services, Ujaas Energy,
Swelect Energy
Positive
Marginal
negative
Positive
Everest Industries,
HIL, Ramco Industries
Negative
Sharekhan
budget special
Sectoral analysis
Sector
Key announcements
Overall
impact
Key companies
to be affected
Positive
Increased allocation
for rural development
schemes is positive
for all FMCG
companies having
presence in rural
India, such as HUL,
Jyothy Laboratories,
GCPL and Marico
Selective
Marginal impact on
companies such as
Nestle and AgroTech
Foods
Negative
Positive
Though increase in
service tax is
marginally negative,
the inclusion of more
countries in the VisaOn-Arrival scheme is
long-term positive for
Thomas Cook India
and Cox & Kings
View: Retain Buy on
Thomas Cook and Cox
& Kings
Negative
Negative
Speciality
Restaurants, Jubilant
FoodWorks and other
restaurant companies
Positive
Cera Sanitaryware,
Greenply, Somany
Ceramics, Kajaria
Ceramics, HSIL
Positive
Positive
Contd....
Sharekhan
budget special
Sectoral analysis
Sector
Key announcements
Overall
impact
Key companies
to be affected
Positive
L&T, Bharat
Electronics, Bharat
Forge, BEML
Positive
Positive
Negative
GMR Infrastructure,
GVK Infraprojects,
HDIL
Positive
IRB Infrastructure,
ITNL, Ashoka
Buildcon, Sadbhav
Engineering
Positive
Va Tech Wabag
Positive
Marginally
negative
Sharekhan
budget special
Sectoral analysis
Sector
Key announcements
Overall
impact
Key companies
to be affected
Overall Budget impact: Neutral (no direct benefit to pharma cos but positive for healthcare as
a whole)
Sector view: Neutral; recommend going selective (preferred picks: Aurobindo Pharma, Glenmark
Pharma, Sun Pharma)
Pharmaceuticals
Positive
Positive
Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.
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