Model-predictive control

looks to the future

A model-predictive controller uses a mathematical model of the
process to predict future effects of current control actions. Knowing
where the process is headed and how the process variable reacts to
the controller's actions gives the controller the foresight to push the
process in the right direction.
Vance J. VanDoren, consulting editor
08/01/2003

A model-predictive controller uses a mathematical model of the process

to predict future effects of current control actions. Knowing where the
process is headed and how the process variable reacts to the controller's
actions gives the controller the foresight to push the process in the right
direction.
The process model is generally based on a set of difference equations
that represent the dynamic relationship between the controller's actions
and the resulting values of the process variable. In a perfect world,
these equations could be back-solved to determine the control actions
required to produce any desired trajectory for the process.

However, real processes cannot react instantaneously to the controller's

actions. The controller must always settle for some error between the
process variable's desired and actual trajectories. The goal of a modelpredictive controller is to minimize and gradually eliminate those errors
over time.

Design
No one-size-fits-all design exists for a model-predictive controller. Each
must be customized to accommodate the behavior of the controlled
process and the performance requirements of the application.
The first step is building a reasonably accurate process model. Its
mathematical structure and the values of its parameters are typically
estimated by an identification algorithm, which exploits data collected
during a series of off-line experiments.
Several performance issues must then be decided, especially how hard
the controller should work to eliminate errors and how long it should
take to do so. An aggressive controller can minimize errors rapidly, but
only by applying dramatic control actions that could damage the
actuators responsible for manipulating the process. A more conservative
controller would generate control actions that spare the actuators but
take longer to eliminate errors.
The time allowed for the controller to eliminate an error is specified by a
user-defined reference trajectory that plots a course between the
current value of the process variable and the desired value to be
achieved in the future. The closer the reference trajectory lies to the
desired trajectory, the harder the controller will work.
Operation
Using the process model, the controller can compute a series of control
actions that would theoretically drive the actual trajectory of the process
variable to follow the specified reference trajectory. The controller then
applies the first of these control actions to the process and measures the
results.
If the model were perfect and there were no additional disturbances to
the process or changes in the desired trajectory, the controller could
achieve the desired results by continuing to apply successive control
actions from the series it originally computed. But in practice, the
controller must re-compute a whole new series of control actions every
time a new measurement is taken.
Unused calculations are not completely wasted, however. If it turns out
that the controller has had to make dramatic changes to its proposed
control actions with each new measurement, the process model may not
be accurate. Some model-predictive controllers can analyze their
failures and attempt to improve future predictions by updating their
models online.