IOP2601/MO001/4/2016

LEARNING UNIT 9:

Basic concepts of probability

Probability is not a foreign concept in our everyday life. Probability has a lot to do with
chance. A typical example of chance is when we toss a coin to decide which team should bat
first in a cricket match. Theoretically there are two possibilities: heads or tails. The two
outcomes are equally possible and each has a chance or probability of one out of two (; 0,5;
or 50%) of happening.
Apart from the everyday use of the concept of probability, it is also widely used and applicable
in statistical calculations. In learning unit 10 you will learn about the normal distribution. Read
through the last paragraph of page 84 and the first paragraph on page 85 in Tredoux and
Durrheim (2013), where they explain how probability relates to the normal distribution. In
learning unit 15 you will learn about the concept of power. A definition of power provided in
learning unit 15 is that it is the probability of deciding correctly to reject a false null hypothesis.
The definition contains many concepts that might be unfamiliar to you at this stage, such as
reject and false null hypothesis. You do not need to worry about these concepts now.
What you do need to note, however, is that the word probability is used in the definition of
power.
These are just some of the areas in statistics where probability plays a crucial role.
Therefore, in order to understand a wide variety of other statistical calculations, you first need
to have a basic understanding of the concept of probability.
There is no simple definition for the concept of probability. It is at times expressed in terms of
the number of favourable instances as opposed to the total number of equally possible
instances. In the case of a coin toss, the probability of a specific outcome is one out of two; in
the case of throwing a dice it is one out of six (0,17 or 17%). Tredoux and Durrheim (2013)
provide a definition on page 74 that describes probability as the number of successes
divided by the total number of events.

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9.1
Study Tredoux and Durrheim (2013) from page 70 to the top of page 74. This section
provides a basic introduction to probability and includes some applications in terms of
frequency and games of chance.
Assuming that you now understand the concept of probability, we can introduce you to simple
calculations of probability.

9.2
Work through the section under the heading of The multiplication and addition rules of
probability on pages 74 to 76 in Tredoux and Durrheim (2013).
Your ability to correctly calculate probability will depend directly on how well you understand a
few terms and rules to be applied in doing these calculations. These are discussed in this
section of Tredoux and Durrheim (2013).
1.

Test your understanding by explaining the following terms and giving an example of
each.
x
x
x

2.

independent event
mutually exclusive
exhaustiveness

When do we use each of the following laws?

x
x

probability law of disjunctions (additive law)

probability law of conjunctions (multiplicative law)

Independent event: When the occurrence of an event has no effect on the

probability of the occurrence of another.
Mutually exclusive: When the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of
another.
Exhaustiveness: A set of events representing all possible outcomes.

x
x

Law of disjunctions (Additive law): When events are mutually exclusive.

Law of conjunctions (Multiplicative law): When events are independent.

1.

2.

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Discrete and continuous variables

In learning unit 2 we made a distinction between discrete and continuous variables. You will
find that the nature of variables also plays a role in probability theory. A continuous variable,
like height, can assume intermediate values; discrete variables, like the number of children in
a family, can assume only fixed values.
So the distribution curve of a continuous variable will reflect intervals. One would speak of the
chance that a variable will fall into a particular interval, rather than the chance that it will
assume a particular value.

9.3
Study the section on pages 79 to 82 of Tredoux and Durrheim (2013) where they discuss the
binomial distribution. The binomial distribution represents the distribution for discrete
variables. Also read the section on pages 83 to 85 where Tredoux and Durrheim (2013)
discuss the normal distribution, which is the distribution for continuous variables.
To sum up this learning unit, answer the following question:
1.

The social networking facility on the New Stars website has launched a competition.
Viewers are invited to guess which contestant is currently studying Industrial
Psychology. Fortunately, you and your friend have picked this up in an interview with
some of the contestants in the media and know that it is Sasha. You are therefore
pretty sure of your answer. The winner of the competition could win R5000 worth of
DVDs and CDs and the second prize is R1000 worth of CDs. Your friend has sent in 35
entries, while you have sent in 30. You have just read that 200 entries qualified.
1.1
1.2

1.3

What is the probability that your friend will win first prize?
Given that you did not win first prize, what is the probability that you will win
second prize? (The entry of the person winning the first prize is not put back in the
hopper.)
What is the probability that the two of you will win first and second prize?

1.1

p (friend)

=
=
=

35/200
0,175
0,18

1.2

p (self)

= 30/199
= 0,15

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1.3

Step 1: Probability that you win first prize and your friend second prize
p (friend) x p (self) =
=
=
=

(35/200) x (30/199)
(0,175) (0,15)
0,026
0,03

Step 2: Probability that your friend wins first prize and you second prize
p (friend) x p (self) =
=
=
=

(30/200) x (35/199)
(0,15) (0,176)
0,026
0,03

Step 3: Therefore the answer is 0,03 + 0,03 = 0,06

Having completed this learning unit you should be able to
x
x
x

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define the basic terms and laws of probability

distinguish between discrete and continuous variables
compute probability as in the exercise presented in this
learning unit