Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
S&P CNX
8,529
IHFL IN
355.6
CMP: INR665
Buy
Indiabulls Housing Finances (IHFL) PAT grew 20.7% YoY (declined 7.2% QoQ) to
INR5.1b (largely in line with est. of INR5.3b). Healthy AUM growth of 28.6% YoY,
52-Week Range (INR)
683/359
stable asset quality and stable incremental spreads of 315bp were the key
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
8/17/75
highlights of the quarter.
Avg Val (INR m)/Vol 000 691/1,306 Disbursements growth (+23% YoY) and lower repayments (-3.1% YoY) drove AUM
Free float (%)
72.2
up 28.6% YoY to INR540.2b. Mortgage continues to dominate the overall AUM mix
with 76% share. Share of corporate loans increased to 22% (21% in 1QFY15) and
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
share of CV declined to 2% v/s 4% in 1QFY15.
Y/E March
2015 2016E 2017E
GNPAs remained stable sequentially at 0.85% and NNPAs at 0.36%. Provisions of
Net Fin inc
21.8
27.7
35.5
INR640m during the quarter; INR530m were towards accelerated write-offs and
PPP
28.7
35.5
43.9
did not include any specific account.
EPS (INR)
53.5
62.6
75.1
EPS Gr. (%)
14.2
17.1
19.9 Other highlights: a) Tied up with CRISIL to grade its LAP bookcurrently the
grading is post disbursal and the company targets to make it pre-disbursal; b) fee
BV/Sh.(INR)
187
208
239
RoAonAUM
income of INR800m comprises INR430m processing fee, INR190m pre-payment
3.6
3.4
3.3
(%)
RoE (%)
fee and fee from selling insurance; c) overall cost of funds at 9.6% (9.70% in
30.8
32.3
33.5
Payout (%)
65.5
57.8
50.0
Q4FY15) and incremental borrowing at ~9.2%.
Valuations
Valuation and view: IHFLs transformation from a diversified lender to a focused
P/E (x)
mortgage player has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving from 3%/0.8% in
12.4
10.6
8.9
P/BV (x)
FY09 to 30.8%/4% in FY15. Focus on mortgage and market share gains will drive
3.6
3.2
2.8
P/ABV (x)
AUM growth of ~23% for the next three years. IHFL is among the lowest-levered
3.6
3.2
2.8
Div. Yld (%)
HFCs (6.3x) to support growth without dilution. Asset quality trend is likely to
5.3
5.4
5.6
remain stable. Improved borrowing profile, better credit rating and liquidity buffer
will aid the company maintain healthy spreads. IHFL offers superior return ratios
with +5% dividend yields. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR790.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
1QFY16A
18,290
1,960
20,249
11,390
8,859
1,937
6,922
1,810
5,113
62.3
9.7
21.9
26.1
1QFY16E
18,308
2,930
21,238
12,213
9,025
1,963
7,062
1,765
5,296
66.7
13.8
21.8
25.0
Var. (%)
0
-33
-5
-7
-2
-1
-2
2
-3
Comments
Lower investments in market related instruments
NCDs are at 110bps lower than bank borrowings
Largely in-line with estimate
Healthy disbursements at INR45.3b, grew +23% YoY, but declined ~30% QoQ
(due to seasonality), led to +28% AUM growth at INR540.2b.
The overall AUM mix skewed continues to be in favor of mortgages (76% share
v/s 75% in 1QFY15), with share of corporate rising to 22%. Share of commercial
vehicle segment continued to fall (as the company is winding off the CV lending)
to 2% of AUM as compared to 4% in 1QFY15.
Spreads of 328bp were stable QoQ and down 22bp YoY; Borrowings increased
34.3% YoY (+7.1% QoQ) to ~INR509b. The company increased borrowing from
NCDs (35% v/s 32% in 1QFY15) and added ECBs during the last quarter in the
borrowing mix (forms 3% of total borrowings) as it tries to move away from high
cost bank funding (55% v/s 60% in 1QFY15).
Bond issuances have been healthy and raised INR38b via bonds during the
quarter; management has indicated that 50% of the incremental borrowings will
happen via bonds. Net gearing ratio increased to 6.3% (5.6% in 1QFY15).
IHFL continues to maintain healthy levels of liquidity with cash, cash equivalents
and investments in liquid debt instruments of INR95.5b and management wants
to maintain such high level of cash and cash equivalent in order to tide any
liquidity crisis.
21 July 2015
GNPA% remained steady at 0.85% and NNPA at 0.36% respectively. GNPAs have
remained stable over the last 6 quarter; hovering at 0.83%-0.86%. Provisions of
INR640m during the quarter; INR530m were towards accelerated write-offs and
did not include any specific account. Management indicated that outlook on
asset quality remain healthy and it continues to be a key focus area.
Other highlights: a) Tied up with CRISIL to grade its LAP book; all incremental
LAP loans would be graded on a post-disbursal basis. The company targets to
convert this into a pre-disbursal rating mechanism in the future. Further, similar
grading scale would be introduced for other loan products b) Fee income of
INR800m includes INR430m processing fee, INR190m pre-payment fee and rest
is fee from selling insurance b) Overall cost of fund at 9.6% (9.70% in Q4FY15),
incremental borrowing at ~9.2%.
2
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd (IHFL) has transformed from a diversified lender
to a focused mortgage player. Mortgage focus has yielded returns, with
RoE/RoA improving from 3%/0.8% in FY09 to +30.8%/4% in FY15.
IHFL has devised a unique strategy 76% of the book forms mortgage/LAP
(which keeps asset quality under check) and 24% of book forms commercial
credit and commercial vehicles (supports blended spreads of ~328bp), thereby
enabling sound asset quality with superior returns.
Disbursement growth has picked up, we believe focus on mortgage and market
share gains will drive AUM growth of ~23% for next three years. One of the
lowest levered HFC (6.3x) to support growth without dilution.
Asset quality trend to remain stable. Improved borrowing profile, better credit
rating and liquidity buffer will help the company maintain healthy spreads.
Consistent outperformance on key parameters relative to sector. Average threeyear RoE at +27% is the best among the peer group. The company offers
superior return ratios with +5% dividend yield. Maintain Buy with a target price
of INR790 (3.3x FY17E BV).
21 July 2015
Story in charts
Exhibit 2: Disb. Growth picks up at +23% YoY
Disbursement (INR b)
AUM (INR b)
46.9
39.0 41.4
45
251
275
294
310
326
344
369
382
391
412
420
450
481
522
540
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
38
4QFY14
1QFY16
31
3QFY14
64
35
2QFY14
4QFY15
36
1QFY14
54
42
4QFY13
3QFY15
35
3QFY13
18.0
26.9 28.6
48
33
2QFY13
13.9
23.1
2QFY15
36
1QFY13
Mortgages
NCD (%)
CP (%)
4.5 4.7
4.1 4.3
3.9
3.7
5.6 5.7
5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
0.4 0.5
21 July 2015
2QFY15
3QFY12
GNPA (%)
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
68 66 62 65 63 62 61 66 63 62 60 60 60 59
55
2QFY13
71 71 71 71 72 72 72 73 73 74 75 76 76 76 76
1QFY13
3 3
23 24 28 27 29 30 31 28 29 30 32 32 32
31 35
9 10 10 8 8
8 8 6 8 8 8 8 8 7
7
4QFY12
8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2
20 21 21 21 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22
3QFY12
Corporate
3QFY12
CV
20.0 19.6
37
44
4QFY12
Others
1QFY15
35
3QFY12
30.4 29.8
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
CMP
Mcap
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
BV (INR)
P/BV (x)
FY16
1.90
3.83
2.68
3.84
2.46
3.27
2.13
1.41
0.77
0.82
2.89
1.10
0.63
0.40
0.82
0.51
0.46
0.36
0.41
0.40
0.34
0.78
5.13
2.55
1.27
3.12
1.15
0.94
4.46
0.90
1.90
2.36
3.80
2.82
FY17
1.59
3.27
2.31
3.33
2.07
2.82
1.85
1.27
0.70
0.76
2.52
0.97
0.56
0.37
0.73
0.45
0.42
0.32
0.37
0.37
0.31
0.71
4.05
2.15
1.11
2.68
1.03
0.79
3.77
0.78
1.66
2.09
3.25
2.46
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
FY16
1.72
1.97
1.75
1.51
1.66
2.03
1.07
1.07
0.79
0.47
FY17
1.78
2.02
1.69
1.60
1.71
2.09
1.15
1.12
0.97
0.59
FY16
16.3
19.2
18.2
13.9
19.9
18.0
11.8
12.0
10.0
8.2
FY17
17.2
20.6
18.2
14.5
21.5
16.8
14.1
13.6
12.6
10.5
0.72
0.67
0.35
0.66
0.58
0.58
0.54
0.62
0.58
0.36
0.80
0.82
0.43
0.78
0.65
0.65
0.64
0.66
0.69
0.44
12.2
11.0
8.3
12.5
12.4
9.2
12.3
12.2
9.5
7.7
13.9
13.9
10.8
15.0
14.1
11.1
14.7
14.2
11.9
10.0
2.52
1.50
1.28
3.90
2.20
3.13
2.16
3.06
2.27
2.60
3.05
2.55
1.56
1.32
3.87
2.19
3.16
2.12
3.12
2.56
2.67
2.95
23.5
20.3
15.7
31.9
11.5
22.2
17.5
20.3
15.3
15.7
19.2
23.6
21.4
17.6
33.3
12.0
22.5
19.2
20.2
16.9
16.6
18.4
*Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries
21 July 2015
21 July 2015
2010
14,131
5,981
8,150
13.9
219
1,907
10,370
6.1
1,364
985
8,021
15.6
3,447
43.0
4,573
1,498
32.8
3,075
189.1
62
3,013
203.0
1,938
2011
21,246
8,995
12,252
50.3
1,016
2,465
16,105
55.3
1,656
1,816
12,632
57.5
2,717
21.5
9,915
2,406
24.3
7,509
144.2
82
7,427
146.5
3,620
2012
32,235
19,201
13,035
6.4
1,980
3,604
19,264
19.6
1,924
1,770
15,570
23.3
2,349
15.1
13,220
3,156
23.9
10,065
34.0
83
9,981
34.4
4,709
2013
42,634
25,991
16,643
27.7
2,748
2,397
21,789
13.1
2,245
1,761
17,783
14.2
1,231
6.9
16,551
3,891
23.5
12,661
25.8
76
12,584
26.1
7,277
2014
51,865
32,824
19,041
14.4
5,419
2,329
26,789
23.0
2,637
1,503
22,649
27.4
2,831
12.5
19,818
4,133
20.9
15,685
23.9
44
15,642
24.3
11,298
2015
61,210
39,442
21,768
14.3
8,055
3,439
33,262
24.2
3,249
1,343
28,670
26.6
3,945
13.8
24,725
5,713
23.1
19,012
21.2
1
19,011
21.5
14,560
2016E
76,626
48,911
27,714
27.3
9,263
3,955
40,932
23.1
3,834
1,561
35,537
24.0
4,217
11.9
31,320
8,143
26.0
23,177
21.9
50
23,127
21.6
15,640
2017E
96,118
60,583
35,535
28.2
10,374
4,430
50,339
23.0
4,600
1,816
43,922
23.6
5,352
12.2
38,570
10,800
28.0
27,770
19.8
50
27,720
19.9
16,216
2010
620
620
0
42,481
43,101
43,101
1,109
78,495
14.9
-251
122,454
12,313
11,683
-2.3
105,246
49.3
-7,233
445
122,454
2011
622
622
0
44,779
45,401
45,401
1,211
193,187
146.1
-722
239,077
21,413
30,894
164.4
194,297
84.6
-7,971
444
239,077
2012
624
624
0
48,432
49,056
49,056
1,315
252,870
30.9
-1,098
302,143
41,956
17,968
-41.8
254,675
31.1
-12,901
445
302,143
2013
625
625
0
51,061
51,686
51,686
1,449
312,858
23.7
-1,641
364,351
48,882
23,079
28.4
307,824
20.9
-15,889
456
364,351
2014
668
668
0
56,402
57,070
57,070
19
355,400
13.6
-1,848
410,641
44,190
29,470
27.7
354,450
15.1
-18,639
469
410,641
2015
711
711
0
65,606
66,317
66,317
20
474,870
33.6
-26
541,181
34,903
61,923
110.1
460,400
29.9
-17,244
514
541,182
2016E
739
739
0
76,159
76,898
76,898
20
565,797
19.1
-26
642,689
28,317
68,115
10.0
565,797
22.9
-20,693
440
642,662
2017E
739
739
0
87,663
88,402
88,402
20
730,095
29.0
-26
818,491
51,418
74,927
10.0
715,779
26.5
-24,832
485
818,463
110,232
23.4
105,246
95.5
4,986
4.5
198,250
79.8
194,298
98.0
3,952
2.0
275,212
38.8
253,460
92.1
21,752
7.9
344,250
25.1
307,824
89.4
36,426
10.6
411,690
19.6
354,450
86.1
57,240
13.9
522,350
26.9
460,400
88.1
61,950
11.9
665,644
27.4
565,797
85.0
99,847
15.0
842,093
26.5
715,779
85.0
126,314
15.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
15.9
8.1
7.8
14.6
6.6
8.0
14.1
8.6
5.5
13.5
10.1
3.4
13.7
10.1
3.6
13.1
9.7
3.4
12.9
9.4
3.5
12.8
9.4
3.4
8.2
7.9
5.5
5.4
5.0
4.7
4.7
4.7
7.9
2.7
2.4
42.3
18.4
22.7
58.1
16.8
4.1
4.0
42.3
15.3
21.6
47.7
21.1
3.7
3.5
59.6
18.7
19.2
52.1
25.0
3.8
3.5
61.0
11.0
18.0
56.1
27.0
4.0
3.6
63.3
8.7
17.1
63.7
30.8
4.0
3.6
64.4
10.3
13.8
70.8
32.3
3.9
3.4
63.8
9.7
13.2
71.1
33.5
3.8
3.3
63.0
8.8
12.7
71.7
Asset quality
GNPA (%)
NNPA (%)
1.92
0.91
1.03
0.38
0.79
0.33
0.79
0.33
0.83
0.36
0.90
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.40
2010
139.1
6.8
2011
146.0
5.0
139.1
146.3
9.7
148.0
23.9
145.6
5.0
64.3
10.0
48.7
2012
157.3
7.8
4.2
157.4
4.2
32.0
34.0
20.8
13.0
40.6
2.0
2013
165.4
5.1
4.0
165.4
4.0
40.3
25.8
16.5
20.0
49.6
3.0
2014
168.7
2.0
3.9
168.7
3.9
46.8
16.3
14.2
29.0
61.7
4.4
2015
186.5
10.6
3.6
186.5
3.6
53.5
14.2
12.4
35
65.5
5.3
2016E
208.2
11.6
3.2
208.2
3.2
62.6
17.1
10.6
36.2
57.8
5.4
2017E
239.4
15.0
2.8
239.4
2.8
75.1
19.9
8.9
37.5
50.0
5.6
Valuations
Book Value (INR)
BV Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
DPS (INR)
Dividend Payout (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
21 July 2015
Corporate profile
Company description
Indiabulls Hous.
Sensex - Rebased
600
500
400
300
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Mar-14
Promoter
27.8
27.8
41.8
DII
2.9
3.2
3.4
FII
38.7
45.8
39.2
Others
30.6
23.2
15.6
Holder Name
Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd
Cinnamon Capital Ltd
Rajiv Rattan
HSBC Global Investment Funds A/c HSBC GIF Mauritius
Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana S A S V
700
%
Holding
4.9
4.3
4.1
3.1
3.1
Name
Name
Sameer Gehlaut
Chairman
Sameer Gehlaut
Gagan Banga
Gagan Banga
Aisharya Katoch
Ashwini Kumar
Rajiv Rattan
Mukesh Garg
Pinank Shah
Head Treasury
Ramnath Shenoy
Name
Type
Statutory
Internal
21 July 2015
EPS
(INR)
FY16
FY17
FY18
MOSL
forecast
Consensus
forecast
Variation
(%)
62.7
76.8
95.2
63.6
75.9
87.4
-1.3
1.2
8.9
NOTES
21 July 2015
Disclosures
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