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COURSE TITLE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
RESEARCH TOPIC
SUBMITTED TO
Dr. Waheed
SUBMITTED BY
Ahsan Raza CIIT/FA08-MBA-009/LHR
Muhammad Asif CIIT/FA08-MBA-073/LHR
Faisal Mushtaq CIIT/FA08-MBA-077/LHR
Rizwan Ahmad Sardar CIIT/FA08-MBA-121/LHR
BATCH 11 SECTION A
1
OPTIONS AND RISK INVOLVED IN
2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First of all, we are thankful to Almighty Allah, who has given us the strength
and determination to carry out this research.
3
ABSTRACT
There are three stock exchanges in Pakistan. These are Karachi Stock
Exchange, Lahore Stock Exchange and Islamabad Stock Exchange. Hundred
of companies related to different sectors are register in it. An investor can sell
or purchase shares of any company through registered brokers of the Stock
Exchanges. Despite there is recession in the world but Investors still look for
the safe investments. They want to invest their idle money or savings in
different stocks of companies. So it becomes important to study factors that
would affect their Investment decision. But the problem is that investment in
stocks is more risky than any other investment. So investors sometimes face
very serious loss instead of profit but it also gives higher returns so investors
want to invest in it. To collect data we use quantitative method. We develop a
questionnaire and fill it from our sample. The sample consists of 50 groups
and in each group there are 5 investors. Our research finds that investors first
see return on that stock, then company’s performance of that stock and at the
end risk. The research shows that in Pakistan 82% investors are male and
18% are female and 58% investors have education of master level. Our
research concludes that aggressive policy of investors is the key reason of
loss in investment. We recommend that investors should diversify the risk by
making portfolio. They should also invest in foreign exchanges to minimize
country risk. They should carefully see the company profile, companies
going on projects, stock performance and products or business type.
Investors should also take broker valuable advice before investing in any
company stock.
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CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III
ABSTRACT IV
1 INTRODUCYION 1
Significance of Study 1
Focus of Study 2
Problem Statement 2
Objectives 2
Limitation of the Study 2
2 LITERATURE REVIEW 3
A Brief Literature Survey 3
Theoretical Framework 6
Research Questions 7
Hypothesis 7
3 RESEARCH DESIGN 8
Purpose of Study 8
Type of Investigation 8
Extent of Researcher Interference 8
Study Setting 8
Measurement of variables 8
Unit of Analysis 12
Sampling Design 12
Time Horizon 12
Data Collection Procedure 13
Data Analysis Techniques 14
4 DATA ANALYSIS 15
5 KEY FINDINGS 41
CONCLUSION 42
RECOMMENDATIONS 42
REFERENCES 43
GLOSSARY 45
APPENDIX 46
5
INTRODUCTION
There are three stock exchanges in Pakistan. These are Karachi Stock
Exchange, Lahore Stock Exchange and Islamabad Stock Exchange. Hundred
of companies are listed in each exchange. The companies are registered in
their particular sector. For example Lucky Cement, Pioneer, D.G. Cement are
registered under Cement Sector. Pel, Siemens Pakistan is registered under
Cable and Electrical Goods Sector. A company can register in all the stock
exchanges or in any stock exchange. The buying and selling of the shares of
all the public companies are held in these stock exchanges. If a person want
to purchase a stock of any listed company he simply go in the stock exchange
and open ODC Account with 5000 Pakistani Rupees then through broker he
can purchase any company stock and if he want to sell it he can sell the share
through the broker. The normal timings of Pakistani Stock Exchanges is Am to
3 Pm. On Saturday and Sunday no trading is held in these stock exchanges.
There are many registered brokers of the stock exchange through which
investors sell or purchase shares of the companies and they charge
commission on it.
SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
Despite there is recession in the world but Investors still look for the safe
investments. They want to increase their money or earnings to meet their
financial and other needs. For that purpose they invest their idle money or
savings in different options e.g. in land, in stocks or shares of companies,
deposit in saving or P & L sharing account. So it becomes important to study
factors that would affect their Investment decision.
6
PROBLEM STATEMENT
The problem is that investment in stocks is more risky than any other
investment. There are several factors which can affect the stock price. So
investors sometimes face very serious loss instead of profit but it also gives
higher returns so investors want to invest in it. Then problem arise how, when,
how much and in which companies stock they invest so that their money
remain save at the end and they get from this investment more than other
alternative investments.
OBJECTIVES
The objective of this study is to see the reasons due to which investors face
loss and explore the factors which affect investment decision for the help of
new investors so that when they want to invest in stocks what factors they
must see and to give them recommendations so that they can get high returns
with minimum risk.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Schiffres (1994) has identified that the stock performance was hurt due to
increase in interest rate. Because due to increase in interest rate the actual
value of the stocks decrease. Another cause of poor performance of the stock
is an imminent decline in electricity demand from large customers.
7
Wang, Stark and Tritch (1994) have identified that in America a Money
magazine conduct the poll to get the knowledge about the savings of the
American’s families for tier after retirements. This poll indicates that only half
of the required income after the retirement. But, they have well managed
programs for the investments in stocks and most attractive portfolios. And
they have well constructed plans which can give the 15% more incomes.
Belsky (1995) has identified that when the stock market as appears
overvalued then investing in stock to earn dividend is a good strategy. He also
identified that each stock have addition advantages.
Mitchell, Leander and Nuelle (1995) have identified that due to collaboration
between CEOs and CFOs the stocks go to fastest growing. It was also found
that:
Mitchell and Leander (1995) have identified that in 1994, top ten companies
were selected to conduct a survey. In this survey Chief executive are the
respondents, and the survey was about the stock price growth. Was this
growth being made by the Chief executives to reward the shareholders,
attract and retain the employees, improve the cost of capital, provide the cash
for growth, or to attract the customers? They gave the answer that they were
just struggling to communicate the vision and long term strategy of the
8
companies not only internally but also externally. And, increase in the stock
price is the end result of all these efforts.
National Education Association of the United States (1997) has identified that:
Schonfeld and Atanason (1997) has identified that if people conduct careful
analysis of the company’s product and management then it investing in stocks
of that companies such as bio technology companies can prove to be a
profitable investment.
Goldberg (1997) has identified that to make concentrated funds; the portfolios
are made only with favorite stocks. The investor sees that stocks which have
big growth and give them steady gains so they invest in small companies
stock.
9
Wang and Fried (1997) has identified some tips how to invest in stocks.
These understand risk, buying shares in diversified funds, buying bond funds
and having short term savings.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Risk has adversely impact on Investment decision. The stock which has lower
risk investor invests their amount in it.
10
Company’s Performance has direct impact on Investment decision. If
company performance is good then investor will willing to invest his amount in
the stock of that company.
Figure
Returns
Company Performance
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
11
HYPOTHESES
1- If a stock has more returns then more investors invest money in it.
2- If a stock has more risk then fewer investors invest money in it.
3- If the Company’s Performance is good then more investors invest
money in it.
RESEARCH DESIGN
PURPOSE OF STUDY
Our purpose of study is to describe the variables and explore the
reasons of loss in investment. So we conduct both descriptive and
exploratory research.
TYPE OF INVESTIGATION
Correlation is our type of investigation. We want to check the
relationship of independent variable and dependent variable and see
up to what extent they correlate.
STUDY SETTING
Our study setting is non – contrived means we take natural settings of
the stock exchange. We not interfere in the working of stock exchange.
MEASUREMENT OF VARIABLES
For the measurement of the variables we use 5 point interval scale
however to know the demographics of the sample we use nominal
scale and for the ranking of the variables we use ordinal scale.
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OPERATIONALIZING THE CONCEPT OF COMPANY
PERFORMANCE
a- Earning per share of the company which tells that how much
company has given return on per unit of share
b- Sales growth means the growth rate of the sale of the product
COMPANY PERFORMANCE
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OPERATIONALIZING THE CONCEPT OF RISK
Risk means that variation or change in the expected and actual returns
on the investment. We use two dimensions to measure risk.
RISK
The elements of the cost are transaction cost and brokerage fee where
as the elements of time are investing period and when to buy.
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RETURN
Cost Time
DECISION
Investment decision mean means that you take the decision in which
company’s stock you like to invest his amount or which company; stock
you want to buy. To measure the concept we use two dimensions and
these are:
The elements of the Objective are which approach is follow and return
& risk level where as the elements of the complete information are
aware about stock prices and dividend paid.
INVESTMENT DECISION
15
UNIT OF ANALYSIS
Our unit of analysis is group and each group consist of five investors.
SAMPLING DESIGN
We use Non-Probability Sampling and in it we use convenience
sampling because it is convenient to us and our time and cost save.
TIME HORIZON
Our research is Cross – Sectional study means one time study. It has
no intervals.
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give their suggestions to him. In pilot testing two member of our group
go in the stock exchange.
After pilot testing we change our unit of analysis and we take unit of
analysis of group of 5 individual. So to fill the questionnaire we all the
members personally go in Lahore stock exchange. We not take any
permission from the university because there is no need of it. We make
two groups of two members each and start fill questionnaire. One
group starts to fill questionnaire from the ground floor and one start
from the upper most floor. One by one we go in every office and
introduce themselves and tell them we come from COMSATS, Lahore
campus and also tell them we are doing MBA and our specialization is
in finance and our Sir Dr. Waheed give us a project to make a research
paper and our research topic is Options & risk involved in different
companies stock in which we see the reasons due to which investors
face loss and explore the factors which affect investment decision for
the help of new investors so that when they want to invest in stocks
which factors they must see and to give them recommendations so that
they can get high returns with minimum risk.
17
DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
We will analyze the data through Descriptive analysis and in it we use
mean, Standard deviation, range, minimum, maximum, frequency,
percentages and pie charts.
DATA ANALYSIS
DEMOGRAPHICS
Age
Valid Cumulative
Frequency Percent Percent Percent
Age
between 20 to 30 years
between 30 to 40 years
above 40 years
35 groups in our research are of age between 20 to 30 years and they are 70
percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by
red colour. 13 groups are of age between 30 to 40 years and they are 26
18
percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by
blue colour. Only 2 groups are of age above 40 years and they are only 4
percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by
green colour.
Gender
Gender
male
female
Pies show counts
41 groups in our research are male and they are 82 percent of total sample of
50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by red colour. Only 9 groups
in our research are female and they are 18 percent of total sample of 50
groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by blue colour.
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Education
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Education
inter level
bachelor level
master level
above master level
other
Only 3 groups in our research have education of inter level and they are 6
percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by
red colour. 14 groups have education of bachelor level and they are 28
percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by
blue colour. 29 groups have education of master level and they are 58 percent
of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is shown by light
green colour. Only 2 groups have education of above master level and they
are 4 percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this portion is
shown by purple colour. Only groups in our research have other education
and they are 4 percent of total sample of 50 groups and in pie chart this
portion is shown by pink colour.
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RANKING
Return
RETURN
Return
first
second
third
In our research, out of 50 groups 21 groups see returns first on that stock
while making investment decision. They are 42 percent of total and in pie
chart this portion is shown by red colour. Out of 50 groups 17 groups see
returns second on that stock while making investment decision. They are 34
percent of total and in pie chart this portion is shown by blue colour. Out of 50
groups 12 groups see returns third on that stock while making investment
decision. They are 24 percent of total and in pie chart this portion is shown by
green colour.
21
Risk
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent
RISK
Risk
first
second
third
In our research, out of 50 groups 16 groups see risk first on that stock while
making investment decision. They are 32 percent of total and in pie chart this
portion is shown by red colour. Out of 50 groups 11 groups see risk second
on that stock while making investment decision. They are 22 percent of total
and in pie chart this portion is shown by blue colour.
Out of 50 groups 23 groups see risk third on that stock while making
investment decision. They are 46 percent of total and in pie chart this portion
is shown by green colour.
22
Performance
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
COMPANY PERFORMANCE
Company Performance
first
second
third
23
INDEPENDENT VARIABLE COMPAQNY’S PERFORMANCE
These four statements measure independent variable Company’s
Performance
Descriptive Statistics
N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
In Earning per share statement, the mean is 4.44 which shows tendency
towards strongly agreement with the statement and a small standard deviation
of .67491. The minimum value a group is selected is 2 that shows
disagreement with the statement and maximum value is 5 that shows strongly
agreement with the statement so the range is 3. In Return on equity, the mean
is 4.4 which shows tendency towards strongly agreement with the statement
and a small standard deviation of .72843. The minimum value a group is
selected is 2 that shows disagreement with the statement and maximum value
is 5 that shows strongly agreement with the statement so the range is 3. In
Relative market growth statement, the mean is 3.66 which shows tendency
towards strongly agreement with the statement and a high standard deviation
of 1.18855. The minimum value a group is selected is 1 that shows strongly
disagreement with the statement and maximum value is 5 that shows strongly
agreement with the statement so the range is 4. In Sales growth statement,
the mean is 3.96 which shows tendency towards agreement with the
statement and a standard deviation of .90260. The minimum value a group is
selected is 2 that shows disagreement with the statement and maximum value
is 5 that shows strongly agreement with the statement so the range is 3.
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Frequency Tables
Earning
D per share
N
A
SA
25
Return on equity
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent
SA
26
Relative market share
SA
27
Sales growth
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Sales
D growth
N
A
SA
In our research 5 groups are disagree with the statement and it is10 percent
of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour. 6
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 12 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 25 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 50 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.14 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 28 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
28
Descriptive Statistics
N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Valid N (listwise) 50
Frequency Tables
29
Political condition
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Political condition
SD
D
N
A
SA
30
Economic condition
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Economic
D condition
N
A
SA
In our research 6 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 12 percent
of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour. 2
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 4 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 23 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 46 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.19 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 38percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
31
Overall market condition
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Overall
D market condition
N
A
SA
In our research 8 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 16 percent
of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour. 8
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 16 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 21 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 42 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.13 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 26 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
32
Demand & supply of stock
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Demand
D & supply of stock
N
A
SA
In our research 7 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 14 percent
of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour. 2
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 4 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 19 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 38 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.22 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 44 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
33
These four statements measure independent variable Returns.
Descriptive Statistics
N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Valid N (listwise) 50
Frequency Tables
34
Transaction cost
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Transaction
D cost
N
A
SA
In our research 15 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 30 percent
of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour.8
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 16 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 18 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 36 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.9 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 18 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
35
Brokerage fee
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Brokerage fee
SD
D
N
A
SA
In our research 3 groups are strongly disagree with the statement and it is 6
percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red
colour. 14 groups are disagreeing with the statement and it is 28 percent of
total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 10
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 20 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with green colour. 15 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 30 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with purple colour. 8 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 16 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with pink colour.
36
Investing period
Investing
D period
N
A
SA
In our research 2 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 4 percent of
total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour. 5
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 10 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 20 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 40 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.23 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 46 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
37
Under value stock
SA
In our research 4 groups are strongly disagree with the statement and it is 8
percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red
colour. 10 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 20 percent of total
groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 6 groups
are neutral with the statement and it is 12 percent of total groups of 50 and
this portion is shown in pie chart with green colour. 20 groups are agree with
the statement and it is 40 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with purple colour. 10 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 20 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with pink colour.
38
These four statements measure dependent variable Investment decision.
Descriptive Statistics
N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Valid N (listwise) 50
Frequency Tables
39
Approach
Approach
D
N
A
SA
In our research 2 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 4 percent of
total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red colour.3
groups are neutral with the statement and it is 6 percent of total groups of 50
and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 14 groups are agree
with the statement and it is 28 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is
shown in pie chart with green colour.31 groups are strongly agree with the
statement and it is 62 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour.
40
Risk & return level
Risk
D & return level
N
A
SA
41
Stock prices known
In our research 2 groups are strongly disagree with the statement and it is 4
percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with red
colour. 6 groups are disagree with the statement and it is 12 percent of total
groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart with blue colour. 3 groups
are neutral with the statement and it is 6 percent of total groups of 50 and this
portion is shown in pie chart with green colour. 21 groups are agree with the
statement and it is 42 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in
pie chart with purple colour. 18 groups are strongly agree with the statement
and it is 36 percent of total groups of 50 and this portion is shown in pie chart
with pink colour.
42
Known dividend paid
SA
KEY FINDINGS
43
Our research finds that
The investors having age between 20 to 30 years are 70%. This shows
that more investors are young.
82 % investors are male and only 18% are female that shows that it is
man dominant profession.
The investors are highly qualified and mostly have education of master
level and they are 58%.
CONCLUSION
Our research finds that the main reason of loss in investment in stocks is the
aggressive policy of the investors. As the ranking of the variables of
investment decision shows that investors first see return on that stock then
44
company’s performance of that stock and at the end risk on that stock. So,
investors see risk on that stock at the end of the three variables. Investors
invest mostly in those stocks which give high returns and It is rule of finance
that higher the returns higher the risk. So, some times when investors do not
carefully analyze before investment in stocks related to the prices of the
stocks whether the stock at that time is undervalue or overvalue, stocks
performance, wrong expectation about the dividend paid by that company and
do not see the management of that company and just focus on returns on that
stocks that leads to loss in investment.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Do careful analysis about the prices of the stock. Must see whether it is
undervalue or overvalue.
It is good to take advice from your broker in which company’s stock you
should invest and when invest.
45
REFERENCES
Mitchall, D.W., & Leander, E. (1995).” Charting the Chief Executive 100
Schiffres ,M. (1994).” Utilities: these are for windows and orphans”.
46
Wang, P.,& Fried,C.(1997).” Smart ways to fix your mix”. Money, v26,
Wang, P., Stark, E. and Tritch, T. (1994).” How to retire with twice as
much money”. Money, v23, n10, p76(10)
GLOSSARY
AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
Investors are risk lover and they invest in that stocks on which
returns are high
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
Investors are risk lower and they invest in that stocks on which
risk is low
PORTFOLIO
Investing in more than one stock
RETURN
Dividend received on an investment plus capital gain
RISK
The variation between actual and expected returns
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APPENDIX
RESEARCH QUESTIONAIRE
Note
The respondent’s data is confidential and used only for research purpose.
Instructions
In serial no. 1, 2 and 3 circling the appropriate option , in serial no. 4 rank the
variables according to your importance and from serial no. 5 to 20, indicate
the extent to which you agree with the statements as they relate to your
investment decision, by circling the appropriate number against each, using
the scale below.
1- Age
a- Below 20 years
b- Between 20 – 30 years
c- Between 30- 40 years
d- Above 40 years
2- Gender
a- Male
b- Female
3- Education
a- Under matric
b- Inter level
c- Bachelor level
d- Master level
e- Above master level
f- Other
Ranking of Importance
48
b. Risk on that share ---------
c. Company’ s Performance of that share ---------
STATEMENTS SD D N A SA
I will see the earning per share of the company in
5 which I invest. 1 2 3 4 5
I will invest in that company whose return on
6 equity is higher than others. 1 2 3 4 5
I will purchase the shares of that company which
7 capture greater market share in that industry. 1 2 3 4 5
I will prefer to invest in that company whose sales
8 growth rate is higher than others. 1 2 3 4 5
49