Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
matters
Reviving the
growth engine
42%
GDP
$14 trillion
4.6%
23%
53%
40%
Priority areas to
grow innovation
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Foreword
For most of the post-war period, productivity in European
economies caught up with the US. In 1995 that all changed.
As the internet became widespread, US productivity
surged even as EU productivity slowed. Hitherto fledgling
companies like Facebook, Google and Apple became
household names. New start-ups captured the public
imagination and traditional businesses, like newspapers
and universities started to see the disruption of their longestablished business models.
Fifteen years later, in the recovery from the Great Recession,
Europe is again lagging. But the comparative picture has
changed: as well as the US, China and India are the growth
engines. Why did this happen? And what can be done?
As this report documents, at the heart of growth is
innovation. But innovation does not come for free. It needs
investment by firms in an accommodating environment.
This report documents how different countries have made
that investment, how it has contributed to growth, and what
can be done to foster the process. Different countries will
of course choose different routes to innovation and a single
innovation size will not fit all. But, as the report shows, some
common features of the economic environment will help.
We start by trying to understand innovation in modern
economies. To do this, imagine an economy with no
innovation. It could of course grow by simply hiring
more of same labour, installing more the same machines
and produce more of the same goods. This is growth by
duplication, a strategy pursued by the USSR that rapidly
ran into diminishing returns. Growth by innovation is
different, for it relies on new ideas. Those new ideas fashion
new goods, develop new business processes and find new
ways of serving consumers. Innovation extricates firms and
economies from the trap of diminishing returns to Physical
Capital by commercialising knowledge or ideas capital.
That commercialisation needs investment. Perhaps the
most studied and discussed investment in innovation
is R&D. The huge contribution of scientific advance in
societies is rightly emphasised, but commercialising
new ideas typically needs more than just R&D. Thus
this report tries to count the multiplicity of investment
in innovation that firms undertake: in software, design,
market research, training and new business processes.
It also looks at spending by governments on public
R&D and tertiary education in science, technology,
engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects.
This inclusive approach to innovation spending allows us to
document better the investment underlying innovation. For
the years 1995-2008 our data suggest the leading investor in
Copyright 2013.
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copied or redistributed
in any form.
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Contents
Executive Summary
10
14
15
18
21
25
28
30
32
34
Conclusion 37
Appendix 39
Acknowledgements 45
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Executive
summary
For the worlds major economies, a return to steady growth
Innovation Capital.
EXHIBIT 1
Innovation Capital has a strong correlation with productivity growth
Innovation Capital
Per cent of GDP, 2007
0.50
US
0.45
Sweden
0.40
UK
Finland
Denmark
0.35
France
Germany
0.30
Netherlands
Austria
R-square: 57%
0.25
Italy
Spain
0.20
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
priority areas:
Protecting employability
and entrepreneurship, not
employment
Many traditional policy interventions in the labour market
have attempted to protect the job a worker does by
subsidising favoured sectors, imposing firing costs on
firms that make jobs redundant or protecting particular
industries from foreign trade. In open modern economies
changes in industries and jobs are unavoidable and
successful policy will have to recognise this. At the same
time, new technology has enabled new start-ups that would
hitherto have been too expensive. Thus, an important part
of modern policy is to help support workers who choose
entrepreneurship so that they can create the jobs of the future.
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
1. Innovation
Capital can
reignite growth
in stagnating
economies
by driving
productivity
EXHIBIT 2
Innovation Capital has several major components
Physical Capital
We estimated Innovation
Capital in 16 countries
France
Germany
Italy
UK
US
Canada
Japan
Austria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
Netherlands
Russia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Knowledge Capital
Human Capital
Share of total
Per cent
16
2.2
1.2
3.2
23
3.3
24
0.6
4
1.1
0.7
5
1.5
11
13.8
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
EXHIBIT 3
Components of Innovation Capital
Type of asset/spending
Physical
capital
Knowledge
Capital
ICT infrastructure
Definition
Type of
assets/spending
Definition
Software and databases
Private and public investment in gross
Physical
Scientific R&D (private
Capitaland public)
investment in ICT
engineering designs
purchased services
Scientific R&D
R&D in all sectors minus
public)
Estimated as 20% of intermediate
Product development
(private and
R&D from mining,
purchases for financial industries
costs in financial industry
software, information
andoffinancial
industries
Advertising and market
Estimated as 20%
intermediate
research
Human
Capital
Development
drive
productions
willdo
then lead
processes
and
the way which
people
into licenses and copyrights
business
Development
financial
products
availability
new reserves,
which
willincrease
then lead
to
of capital to growing businesses
Mineral exploration
R&D in mining and O&G
Estimated as 20%
of intermediate
industries
Venture Capital
Invesmtent
processes
Software and
Private and public
databases
investment in gross
R&D in creativefixed
industry
Entertainment, artistic
capital formation
and literary originals
in software and
databases
New architectural and
Estimated as 50%
of industry
Mineral exploration
Innovation
Capital
Innovation
Components
of Innovation
Capital
Knowledge
and literary originals
Capital
to licenses
and copyrights
Contributions
to existing
approaches
Employee development
Cost of developing workforce skills to
Investments
in building
workforce
skills increase
Type of asset/spending
Definition
Potential
forininclusion
Capital
drive changes in business processes
level ofrationale
innovation
the companies
New architectural
and and public
Estimated
asin50%
Knowledge
new
engineering
ICT infrastructure
Private
investment
ICT of New
infrastructurefrom
built in
addition
to natural and
Physical
Organizationalengineering designs
Management
investments
resultassets
in improvement
decision
industry purchased These
architectural
designs
have
spillover
infrastructure consulting
replacement
of depleted
contribute
to effects
capital
development
making and business
processes
Share (16%) ofservices
management costs
improvements
in business
processes
in
other
innovations
dedicated to business innovation
financial industries
Advertising and
market
Expenditure on market
R&D in mining and O&G industries
research
research and creative
work to build brand equity
R&D in creative industry
Entertainment, artistic
and literary originals
Venture capital
Venture capital
Investment
investments
New architectural and
Estimated as 50%
of industry in early-
stage firms
engineering designs
purchased services
Mineral exploration
Innovation
Capital
Estimated as 20%
of of
intermediate
Product development
Education spend
Cost
tertiary
purchases for financial industries
costs in financial industry
in STEM tertiary
education in STEM
education Estimated as 20% of intermediate
Advertising and market
research
Human
Capital
Organisational
development
Employee development
Organizational
development
for firms
the development
of innovative
firms and
Knowledge
from new engineering
and architectural
technologies
designs
have spillover effects in other innovations
Development
financial
productsdrives
increase
availability
Education
investment
development
of capital to growing businesses
Employee development
Cost of developing
Venture Capital
Estimated as 20%
of intermediate
workforce
skills to drive
Invesmtent
purchases for financial industries
changes in business
Human
Cost of tertiaryprocesses
education in STEM
CapitalEducation spend in
STEM tertiary education
Development
increase
availability
increase financial
level ofproducts
innovation
in companies
of capital to growing businesses
Education investment drive development
capabilities required for professionals to innovate
Management consulting
These investments
result in improved
Investments
in building workforce skills increase
decision
making
business processes
level
of innovation
in theand
companies
management costs
Management consulting
dedicated to business These investments result in improvement decision
making and business processes
Share (16%) of management costs
innovation
dedicated to business
innovation
Cost of developing workforce skills to
shares
(16%) of
drive changes and
in business
processes
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; McKinsey analysis
10
a manufacturing process.
EXHIBIT 4
Innovation Capital investments directly contribute to
53% of productivity growth
Labour productivity growth1, 1995-2007
Innovation Capital
Other
Knowledge Capital
TFP Growth
Physical Capital
Non-ICT Capital
Innovation Capital
contribution to growth2
(%)
Human Capital
31
32
39
53
41
39
51
60
41
32
86
119
53%
Average
5.2
4.2
3.7
3.5
2.8
Finland
Slovenia Czech
Republic
107
Sweden UK
2.8
US
2.4
Austria
2.2
Netherlands
1.8
France
1.8
1.7
1.3
0.8
0.5
Italy
11
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
investments.
EXHIBIT 5
Most recent business sector growth in Europe was driven by
improvements in productivity
Share of business sector GVA growth1, 1995-2007
Productivity
Hours
1.4
4.8
121.6
107.6
3.9
107.4
4.2
84.3
15.7
-21.6
-7.6
3.4
82.7
17.3
2.2
80.9
3.0
79.6
19.1
20.4
France
Austria
3.6
75.7
24.3
4.9
74.5
3.2
67.8
25.5
32.2
Finland
Netherlands
2.5
53.8
46.2
1.5
33.9
66.1
3.8
20.1
79.9
-7.4
US
Denmark Italy
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; McKinsey analysis
Spain
12
13
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
EXHIBIT 6
Higher R&D investments correlate with higher growth in TFP, indicating
spillover effects from research into the broader economy
Business R&D investment and productivity (1986-2008)
TFP
Annual change, per cent
2.0
Finland
1.5
Norway
UK
1.0
Iceland
0.5
New Zealand
Portugal
Australia
Belgium
Canada
US
Switzerland
France
Japan
Denmark
Italy
-1.0
Austria
Netherlands
-0.5
Sweden
Germany
Spain
-1.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
R&D/GDP
Per cent
SOURCE: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scorecard, 2011; OECD Productivity Database and OECD calculations
based on Johansson et al. (2012); Corrado et al. (2012)
14
EXHIBIT 7
Innovation Capital has grown at 4.6% CAGR
Innovation Capital across countries
US$ trillions1
3.9%
p.a.
4.1%
p.a.
6.5%
p.a.
4.1%
p.a.
Physical
Capital
7.7
14%
8.0
14%
8.4
15%
8.9
15%
9.4
16%
10.1
16%
10.7
16%
11.0
11.3
16%
16%
11.6
16%
62%
62%
61%
61%
60%
12.1
16%
60%
12.6
16%
13.2
16%
13.8
16%
5.8%
60%
60%
60%
4.1%
5.1%
Knowledge
64%
Capital
63%
63%
63%
62%
Human
Capital
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
23%
23%
24%
24%
24%
24%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
GDP
2.7%
15
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
components.
EXHIBIT 8
The USA has the highest Innovation Capital as a proportion of
GDP among our data set
Innovation Capital,
Per cent of GDP
51
44
43
41
40
40
37
35
34
34
34
32
36
32
27
US
UK
Finland
Denmark France
Slovenia Netherlands
Germany Austria
Czech
Spain
Republic
25
Italy
23
Russia
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; McKinsey analysis
16
10), but these regions had very different starting points. While
and Japans growth rates grew the least among the country set,
potentially driven by the concentration of their investments in
EXHIBIT 9
Innovation Capital as a proportion of GDP varies significantly across
individual components and countries
Share of GDP for components of Innovation Capital, 2008
Per cent
CompScientific
uterised
information R&D
ICT
US
7.6
UK
6.1
Canada
5.9
Japan
Germany
Finland
Sweden
7.4
5.6
7.3
6.9
Italy
6.7
Czech Republic
Russia
Slovenia
Austria
France
Netherlands
5.3
3.1
8.0
6.4
3.9
8.0
5.6
3.3
6.9
11.9
6.2
5.1
12.2
15.2
3.2
2.3
0.5
2.2
2.6
4.5
3.9
8.4
1.8
10.1
1.4
10.9
11.3
6.2
2.1
7.4
10.8
4.0
6.4
2.1
14.1
7.1
2.4
4.4
Denmark
Spain
3.6
Advertising
& market
research
Other
R&D
Top 3 ranking
Education
4.2
2.4
5.4
Employee
development
2.5
5.5
2.6
7.8
0.6
1.2
2.7
5.3
1.4
2.7
5.3
1.3
4.5
1.4
6.4
1.3
3.5
1.8
0.7
2.4
1.8
3.3
3.6
4.9
5.7
1.4
4.7
1.6
1.8
1.4
2.6
3.6
5.1
1.6
2.6
1.0
1.7
4.8
8.3
8.0
5.0
9.2
8.2
5.5
9.1
4.1
3.0
0.9
2.3
2.1
3.0
2.0
3.2
9.9
3.8
3.3
3.1
Organisational
development
1.4
1.2
2.4
3.7
2.7
1.7
3.8
1.4
3.4
1.9
3.9
6.5
1.3
3.6
2.4
4.9
6.2
1.9
2.3
5.5
1.9
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; McKinsey analysis
17
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
EXHIBIT 10
Spain and the Scandinavian countries have seen the fastest
growth rates in Innovation Capital
Innovation Capital growth trend
Per cent CAGR, 1995-2008
7.8
Spain
7.2
Sweden
7.2
Finland
6.3
Denmark
6.0
Austria
5.8
US
5.7
UK
5.6
Czech Republic
5.4
Netherlands
4.7
France
4.2
Canada
4.1
Slovenia
3.7
Italy
3.2
Russia
3.1
Germany
Japan
1.3
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; McKinsey analysis
18
19
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
EXHIBIT 11
The highest rates of return tend to be in Human Capital components
Marginal return over Innovation Capital components by category1
Per cent CAGR for 1995 2007
Knowledge Capital
Human Capital
31
23
Czech Republic
23
19
Denmark
41
25
France
47
28
Germany
19
16
Italy
30
23
Netherlands
Spain
33
24
Finland
Slovenia
36
26
Austria
21
15
7
13
42
25
Sweden
36
25
UK
22
31
1 Estimated as incremental value in GVA driven by individual components as calculated by the growth accounting method
divided by cumulative investments in each component net of depreciation
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; McKinsey analysis
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
2. The secret
of accelerated
Innovation
Capital
development
21
22
EXHIBIT 12
Labour productivity correlates with efficiencies of resource
allocation across countries
Labour productivity growth
Per cent, 1995-2007
4.0
Finland
3.5
3.0
United Kingdom
2.5
US
Austria
2.0
Belgium
1.5
Denmark
France
Germany (including ex-GDR from 1991)
1.0
0.5
Sweden
Spain
Italy
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; Andrews and Cingano (2012)
23
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
EXHIBIT 13
Our levers require the involvement of multiple stakeholders and their
impact cuts across the dimensions of Innovation Capital
Leading role
Major Innovation Capital contribution
Category
Create a flexible
environment for
talent development
and deployment
Encourage
entrepreneurial
activity
Foster collaboration
between different
parts of the
ecosystem
Actions
Physical
Capital
Knowledge
Capital
Contributing role
Leading stakeholders
Human
Capital
Government
Academia
Corporations
Entrepreneurs
24
25
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
knowledge.
Promotion of domestic market competition: a recent study
Effective intellectual property rights protection policies:
26
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
28
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
30
the ten countries analysed. The role of these young firms was
mature businesses.
and encourages people to take risks and test new business ideas
10
EXHIBIT 14
Innovation Capital is correlated with entrepreneurial activities
Innovation Capital
Per cent of GDP
60
Innovation Capital
Per cent of GDP
Japan
Sweden Denmark
Finland
Slovenia
UK
France
Netherlands
Germany
Spain
Austria Italy
Russia
50
40
30
20
60
US
50
Canada
30
20
10
11
10
Innovation Capital
Per cent of GDP
60
20
US
Japan
Canada
Finland France UK Denmark
Czech Republic
Slovenia Austria
Netherlands Germany
Italy
Russia
Spain
10
30
60
40
Russia
0
0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75
Innovation Capital
Per cent of GDP
50
Czech Republic
10
0
3
Japan
40
Czech Republic
US
Canada
UK Finland
Germany France
Sweden
Slovenia
Austria Denmark
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
0
0.30
Sweden
50
UK
40
30
20
10
France
Germany
Spain
Russia
Japan
Slovenia
Netherlands
Finland
Italy
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
62 64 66 68
SOURCE: Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Massimiliano Iommi (2012), "Intangible Capital
and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results" available at
www.INTAN-Invest.net; GEDI; GEM; McKinsey analysis
31
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
entrepreneurship:
32
through DARPA.
involvement:
Advanced composites
Big Data
Internet Of Things
Cloud computing
these technologies.
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
34
talent pool.
Research on clusters also points to the fact that those with a more
14
35
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
EXHIBIT 15
Improve quality of
policies to promote
innovation
Create a flexible
environment for talent
development &
deployment
Encourage
entrepreneurial activity
Moderate
relationship
0.66
0.55
Strong
relationship
0.17
0.61
0.54
0.75
0.72
Foster collaborations
and ecosystems
University-industry collaboration
0.71
0.13
0.73
0.45
Broadband penetration
0.36
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Conclusion
The prosperity in which many of us live today is built on the
innovations of the past. These innovations have enabled us
to automate many previously burdensome tasks, travel more
freely, store and search data knowledge more quickly, and
connect and collaborate with each other in new ways. Taken
together, the innovations of the past two centuries have
allowed us to live longer lives in a world that is vastly more
comfortable, connected, and prosperous than the world that
preceded it.
The continuation of this growth is however at risk at least for
developed countries. With headwinds of debt, demographics,
and in many cases a challenging fiscal and macroeconomic
environment, innovation is likely to be the major lever bringing
about future productivity increases and therefore overall
economic growth.
While traditional research and development is important, this
innovation stretches far beyond that. It involves technology,
process improvements and perhaps most of all improved
Human Capital. Fostering it within economies requires the
focused attention of and collaboration between policymakers
and private enterprise.
Tackled appropriately, actions to promote innovation
can lead us to a resumption of strong growth in developed
economies. It will mean, in other words, that the generations
following us are able to benefit from continued prosperity and
the same degree of advancements over their lifetimes that we
have ourselves enjoyed.
37
39
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Appendix
Methodology for calculating Innovation Capital
Our Innovation Capital measure attempts to estimate and
value the stock of innovation across countries. This is
defined as the level of innovative investments in an economy
that lead to future economic value, in much the same way as
investments in conventional Physical Capital do.
Both our categorisation of Innovation Capital and our
data set draws heavily upon existing literature, including
recent work on intangible capital and knowledge-based
capital. In particular, we have drawn much of our data for
intangible investment and stock from the work of Corrado,
Haskel, Jona-Lasinio and Iommi, and the recent IntanInvest project2. Our approach also draws from work by
Corrado, Hulten and Sichel, as well as recent OECD work on
Knowledge-Based Capital1.
Our Innovation Capital measure comprises several asset
types, grouped under three general categories:
Innovative Physical Capital, which includes IT and
Communications technology;
Knowledge Capital, which comprises investments in
software, scientific R&D, research in financial services,
engineering and architectural design, venture capital,
creative and artistic originals, mineral exploration, brand
equity, and market research;
Human Capital, which includes investments in education,
employee development, and organisational capital.
Our definition of investment here is limited to outlays
on assets that last for more than one year, in order to
separate out expenditures that are intended to expand
future productive capacity from expenditures for continued
operations. This corresponds to conventional definitions of
gross fixed capital formation, under which many of our items
are already categorised for several countries. On this basis,
the purchase of a software programme for short-term use
would not be included in these measurements, but the use of
40
draw profit from. They can also reduce market risk, allowing
20
41
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
restrictive labour laws which leave firms free to hire and fire,
secondary schools.
innovative firms.
are among the best in the G8, as is the recovery rate for
failed businesses27.
42
commercial clusters.
opportunities to innovate.
43
Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
References
1 Alistair Nolan, New sources of growth: KnowledgeBased Capital (Key Analysis and Policy Conclusions),
2013
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Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
Acknowledgements
Any report of this kind relies on collaboration and contribution of many parties, but as always, there are a handful of
individuals without whom this report would not exist. We owe them all a debt of gratitude for contributing their time,
expertise and passion.
Giovanni Accardo
Engagement Manager
McKinsey & Company
David Honigmann
Senior Communication Specialist
McKinsey & Company
Robert Barham
Business Analyst
McKinsey & Company
Louise Marston
Head of Innovation and Economic Growth
National Endowment for Science,
Technology and the Arts
Albert Bravo-Biosca
Senior Economist
National Endowment for Science,
Technology and the Arts
Nicolas Princen
Tech Entrepreneur
Former Innovation and ICT Advisor to the President of France
Jacques Bughin
Director
McKinsey & Company
Dena Mullins
Graphic Designer
McKinsey & Company
Olivia Cavlan
Engagement Manager
McKinsey & Company
Alisdair Wood
Senior Graphic Designer
McKinsey & Company
To continue the conversation on the findings in this dicussion paper, please contact innovation@mckinsey.com
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Innovation matters:
Reviving the growth engine
47
June 2013
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