When the Economic Long Wave is Exhausted: The USA and The Japanese

Case.

Negative
Economic Growth
Area

Positive Economic
Growth Area

Was it because the Economic Long

Long Wave of Japan is exhausted and/or because Japan has
entered in a Stationary Economy and that is why when it arrives to an area it acts as a
barrier Japan can not cross?

Circle: Bubble buffer zone in Nominal Growth. Green Line:: Business Cycle. Black Arrows:
Growth Trend in to a Stationary Economy.
The importance of considering Nominal GDP is that Public Choice is generating huge
quantities of Public Debt in a trial of improving the Business Cycle and that Public Debt will
have to be paid with Nominal GDP components.

Digging in the Stationary Hypothesis: Previous to enter in to a Stationary Economy we can

expect that the System cleans the bubble component of the growth; in the Spanish case it
is clear that part of the growth in recent years had that component because of the bubble
in the Real State Sector. If The Economy will be able to eliminate this component in one or
more Juglar Cycles while it restructures itself. Whether you measure this bubble
component of the GDP by inferring it from the Structural Public Deficit created by the
Crisis of a Long Wave Cycle exhausted or using Dynamic Econometric Models of Sectors
Inter-related it is indifferent at this point, what is clear is that the Peak of The Cycle is
lower; in that sense, we can expect that the Stationary Economy shows a progressive low
trend to the no-bubble-peak. Notice that this Peak Growth Area (without bubbles) is
useful for Economics even if a new K-Cycle appears in the next future.
Considering the above commented, perhaps it is necessary that we start to think about
the possibility that the Global Economy could take decades in creating a new Economic
Engine that gives birth to a New Kondratiev Wave or K-Cycle and, confronting that option,
maybe is time to revisit these authors that worked on Stationary Economics.
Other aspect to consider is, that for sure, in the next years, there will be strong pressure
from areas like Employment, Immigration, Demographic Change, Income Distribution, etc
to affect Public Choice and Business Cycles in the aim of gains in terms of Welfare and,
may be, we will see a revival of that excellent Economist that is J. E. Meade. In the next
links, you can find some researching resources to explore: Link1, Link2, Link3, Link4, Link5,
Link6, Link7, Link8, .
More of my consideration, interest and attention are the matters related to Business Cycle
and its relationship with Proficient Management or the Search of Optimum Choice in the
Management Decision Making Process, particularly in the Manufacturing Firms. What is
sure is that the particular Creative Destruction Process we will live in between two KCycles, or if we enter in to a Stationary Economy, will require a crucial Business
Management Skills that only these of us that have experienced exhausted Economies
understand the complexities involved, but that is a matter out of the purpose of this
paper.
Luis Riestra Delgado
01-19-2010.