The generals' election. (Cover Story: Nigeria).

On 19 April, Nigeria will go to the polls to chose a president froma parade of retired generals.
Leading the pack is the incumbent,President (General) Olusegun Obasanjo. His major challenger
isMajor-General Muhammadu Buhari. Who will win? looks at the permutations.
"Solider go, solider come" would have undoubtedly been Fela Ransome Kuti's line had he lived long
enough to see this day. Nigeria's most colourful musician to date, Fela (may he rest in peace) did
not suffer soldiers gladly. How he must be turning in his grave that he an no longer write those
biting lyrics. This time, he may well have added "solider no go go, because them compete
against themselves, soldier" - a sad reflection of the course of politics in a country of over 116
million civilians where civilians, strangely, can hardly have a look-in when it comes to the top job.
The line-up for 19 April is http://www.yohaig.ng/category/newspapers/the-punch/ indeed awesome:
In Lane 1 is the incumbent, General Olusegun Obasanjo, running (again) for the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP).
His major challenger is in Lane 2, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, running for the All Nigerian
People Party (ANPP). Buhari was head of state from December 1983 to August 1985.
Facing them in Lane 3 is General Ike Omar Sanda Nwachukwu, now a senator in the upper house of
the National Assembly, who is running for the National Democratic Party (NDP).
In lane 4 is General (sorry, Colonel) Chief Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu, running for the All
Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Chief Ojukwu was a colonel in the Nigerian army before the
Civil War (June 1967 to Jan 1970) and became a general in Biafra (so, technically he is a
general). All four are retired though.
In Lane 5 comes the first "civilian" contestant, SenatorJim Nwobodo of the United Nigerian Peoples
Party (UNPP). He is a formergovernor of the old Anambra State.
In Lane 6 is another "civilian", Chief Gani Fawehinmi, the controversial lawyer and civil rights
activist, who is running for his National Conscience Party (NCP). It was entirely due to Gani's effort
that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), was forced to register additional
parties to bring the total to 30.
Gani challenged INEC's guidelines for party registration in the courts, up to the Supreme Court in
fact, and won! The Court ruled that part of INEC's guidelines that initially disqualified some smaller
parties, including Gani's NCP, were unconstitutional. Another pro-democracy activist, Dr Arthur
Nwankwo, is the torchbearer for the Peoples' Mandate Party.
There is just one woman in the race, Mrs Sarah Jubril, running for the Progressives Action Congress
(PAC). The other parties may not field presidential candidates. Some are just interested in theother
elections, like the local government and state assemblies. For President Obasaanjo, victory at the
PDP primary did not come easy. Although he won with a landslide, it was neertheless an upset
victory considering the opposition ranged against him.
His second term bid, for several months, kept the political temperature on the boil. The Northern
power-brokers, represented by the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), who felt sidelined by his
government, bitterly opposed his second term. The Igbos of the Southeast also accused him of

discrimination in the allocation of government benefits. They still believe that they are being
marginalised because of the Civil War, which the Igbos lost. Indeed, Federal roads in the East are in
the worst deplorable conditions. The Igbos, therefore, embarked on a "project" to produce one of
their own as president. The oil rich Niger Delta also had a bagful of grievances against Obasanjo.
From the time of the late Ken Saro-Wiwa, the youths of the area have been waging a war on the
government and oil multinationals over the exploitation, environmental pollution and criminal
neglect of the area that, incidentally, lays Nigeria's golden eggs.
This led to the killing of 12 policemen in ODI, Bayelsa State, a year ago. In a fit of anger, Obasanjo
sent in soldiers who razed the entire village to the ground. Niger Delta delegates were going to
pay Obasanjo back in his own coin at the convention. Or so everybody thought.
In the Middle Belt area where the defence minister, Lt-GenTheophilus Danjuma, comes from,
communal violence between Danjumas,Jukuns and Tivs once led to the killing of seven soldiers by
localmilitiamen. Like in Odi, President Obasanjo ordered the army to dealwith the culprits. By the
time they were through, a village, Zaki-Biam,was reduced to rubbles. The country home of the
former ECOMOG commander,General Victor Malu, a Tiv, was razed to the ground and his
unclekilled. Benue state delegates who are mainly Tivs said they were goingto vote against
Obasanjo. There was also the lingering controversy overthe sharing of oil revenue from off-shore
productions. In 2001, Obasanjowent to the Supreme Court to seek a legal interpretation of
theConstitution. The Court ruled that revenue from off-shore explorationsbelonged exclusively to the
Federal Government. This denied revenue tosome states in the Niger Delta
http://www.fifa.com/associations/association=nga/index.html that do not produce on-shore oil.
Because of the disenchantment it cause, Obasanjo presented a bill to the National Assembly to
remove the on-shore/off-shore dichotomy and restore the earnings of the states. But the National
Assembly passed the bill with an amendment, which meant that littoral states could have a share of
the oil revenue from the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) set by the government. Obasanjo refused
to sign the Act. This further enraged the people of the area. So come the bid for second term, the
affected states threatened to vote against Obasanjo if he did not sign the bill.
From 13 August 2002, Obasanjo had been under the threat of impeachment by the National
Assembly. Trouble started in the early days of his government back in 1999 when he insisted on
imposing his choice of leadership on the National Assembly. Because of the crisis it generated, the
House of Representative has since had two speakers; and the Senate, three presidents. It was
believed that the impeachment threat would ruin his second term bid, and that members of the
National Assembly would have their pound of flesh at the convention.
Apart from these group grievances, Nigerians agree that Obasanjo has performed poorly in the last
three years and half. The state of Federal roads are deplorable. And Obasanjo himself has confessed
that he was ashamed of Nigeria the state of the roads.
When the came into office on 29 May 1999, Obasanjo promised to deliver uninterrupted electricity
by December 2001. That has not happened. His anti-corruption drive has not scratched the problem
at all. The advocates of a national conference to re-structure the country to a true federation are
unhappy that he has not been keen on it.
When, therefore, Dr Alex Ekwueme, the former vice president in the SEcond Republic and until
recently chairman of the Board of Trustees of the ruling PDP, decided to challenge Obasanjo for the
party ticket, many delivered that all those dissatisfied with Obasanjo's performance would rally
round Ekwueme. But it did not happen. Instead all his "enemies" voted for him.

Stories were told of how the convention was turned into a bazaar where delegates were bought and
sold for cash, and forgot their grievances. It was alleged that some governors stridently opposed
to Obasanjo were given money and promised to retain their offices, to whip their states' delegates
into line!
The final tally of the votes cast was Obasanjo 2,642; Ekwueme 661; Alhaji Abubakar Rimi 159, and
the former chairman of the party, Dr Banabas Gemade, 17. Ekwueme rejected the result and
dismissed the primary as "a charged". Unlike in 1999, he refused to congratulate Obasanjo. He
alleged intimidation of delegates and blackmail of the governors, some of whom are now being
investigated by the Anti-Corruption Commission. Ekwueme called on the PDP to conduct a fresh
primary election. Not getting any joy, he went to court to challenge Obasanjo's victory. But in midJanuary, the court threw out his case.
The primaries to elect candidates for governorship, senate and representatives of various houses
were even more scandalously manipulated. It was cash-and-carry, and victory went to the
highest bidder. Writing about her experience in a newspaper article, Mrs. Nkoyo Toyo, the
executive director http://www.britannica.com/place/Nigeria of Gender and Development Action
(GADA), who contested for a ticket in Akwa Ibom State, said: "There was a deliberate, sustained
deployment of tyranny, blackmail, violence, deceit and intimidation by those who claim to 'own the
party' and actively act as gatekeepers to keep out everyone who has any inclination to independent
thought."
In fact, Obasanjo's controversial victory influenced the choice of his major challenger, MajorGeneral Buhari, as the ANPP candidate. The choice was not without its own controversy. The
ANPP, heavily backed by the far North, warned a candidate strong enough to give Obasanjo a run
for his money.
The party; thus, persuaded some of the 11 contestants to step down for Buhari, with the former
senate president, Dr Chuba Okadigho, as his running mate. The Northern aspirants duly stepped
down, but the five Southern contestants -- Chief John Nwodo, Chief Edwin Ume-Ezeoke,
Chief Rochas Okorocha, Chief Harry Akande and Chief Pere Ajuwa -- rejected what they called
"imposition of a candidate" based on ethnic and religious consideration. They staged a dramatic
walk out from the convention venue. This greatly embarrassed the party members.
Who will win? Indeed the emergence of Obasanjo and Buhari has not only evoked a cry against the
continued dominance of the country's politics by retired generals, it has also polarised the
presidential race along North-South and Christian-Muslim lines. The election, therefore, is going to
pitch the Christian Southwest, represented by Obasanjo, against the Muslim Northwest,
represented by Buhari. It is doubtful if a clear winner will emerge at the first ballot.
Obasanjo is sure to win in his Yoruba area of the http://www.nigeria.gov.ng/ Southwest (they did not
vote for him last time) and in the Middle Belt states of Kogi and Kwara because of the Yoruba
elements; and in Plateau, Nassarawa and Benue states where people resent their domination by the
Hausa-Fulanis of the Muslim North. The Niger Delta area will not vote for Obasanjo unless he signs
the off-shore/on-shore oil dichotomy Act. The manner of his defeat of Ekwueme in the primary has
angered the Igbos even more. Although the Igbo governors and Federal appointees support
Obasanjo, it is doubtful if the Igbo people in general will vote for a man they believe "hates" them.
Buhari, on the other hand, will win in the far North as well as raking the Muslim votes in the Middle
Belt area. But elsewhere, he will be hurt by his extreme Islamic posture. He fully supported the
introduction of Sharia by some Northern states. Many hold grudges against him for once urging
Muslims to vote for only a president that would protect their religious interest . This

was interpreted as calling on Muslims to vote for a Muslim candidate only.

In the Northeast, where Obasanjo's vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, comes from, it will be a
battle royal. Not only are Buhari and Obasanjo going to share the votes, two other running
mates come from that zone. Senator Nwachukwu's running mare, Alhaji Abu Farri, comes from
Taraba State. Senator Jim Nwobodo's running mare, Albaji Mohammed Goni, a very influential
Second Republic governor of the Old Borno State (now Borno and Yobe) comes from Adamawa. So
neither Buhari nor Obasanjo may sweep all the votes from the Northeast.
It is expected that, as usual, the Igbo votes may turn the Southeast into the real battlefield. But the
Igbos are so angry about their fate in Nigeria that the bulk of their votes will neither go
to Obasanjo nor Buhari. The fact that Buhari's running mate, Dr Chuba Okadigbo, the former
Senate president, is from Igboland may not sway many Igbos. In any case, General (or Colonel
depending on which side you stand) Emeka Ojukwu, the All Progressives Grand Alliance
(APGA) presidential candidate, is from the same state (Anambra) as Okadigbo.
The Igbos still accuse Buhari of marginalising them in the allocation of projects when he was the
chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF). Moreover, they are nor too keen for Northern rule so
soon. And a vice presidential slot is not what they want either. They want the Number One job.
One thing the Igbos and the Yorubas are agreed is that the presidency must remain in the South for
at least eight years. The Igbos, therefore, are likely to mobilise their votes behind one of the
Igbo candidates.
Many; in fact, believe that the Obasanjo-Buhari race may open the door for Senator Ike Omar Sanda
Nwachukwu of the NDP Although a retired general himself, he is a rather genial person whose
appeal cuts across the country. Born of a Christian Igbo father from the Southeast, Nwachukwu's
mother is from a royal house in Katsina in the Muslim North. He is married to a Yoruba whose
mother is from the Rivers State in the Niger Delta.
He was once a journalist, two times foreign minister, once labour minister, and once governor of the
old Imo State and the first Igbo GOC (General Officer Commanding) a division of the Nigerian Army
since the Civil War ended in January 1970.
Nwachukwu, thus, sees himself as a "bridge builder" across Nigeria's ethnic and religious divides. If
he can capture the Southeastern votes from Ojukwu and Jim Nwobodo, he may have a fair chance
in an election that may go into a run-off. That again depends on if the rest of Nigeria is prepared to
have an Igbo as president. And it is a big if.