02/05/2015

5ThingsYouShouldKnowAboutPutin'sIncursionIntoCrimea

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GregSatell(http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/)Contributor
Opinionsexpressedby ForbesContributorsaretheirown.

TECH(/TECHNOLOGY)

3/01/2014@10:34AM 693,047view s

5ThingsYouShouldKnow
AboutPutin'sIncursion
IntoCrimea
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SincetheclosingceremoniesattheSochiOlympics
(http://www.forbes.com/olympics/)concluded,
VladimirPutin
(http://www.forbes.com/profile/vladimirputin/)
hasdonehisbesttomakeclearthatheintendsto
makethingsasdifficultaspossibleforUkrainesnew
interimgovernment.
Firstheorderedmassivemilitaryexercises

(http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304709904579406310892324006?
mg=reno64
wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304709904579406310892324006.htm
involvingsome150,000troops,onUkrainesborder.Whilesomeobservers
notedthatnotenoughmedicalunitswereincludedtoindicateaninvasion,it
wasclearlyaprovocativeact.
Yet,evenmoreworryinghasbeenhisactionsinCrimea
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea),asemiautonomousregionof
Ukraine,whichalmostperfectlymirrorhisactionsintherunuptotheRussia
GeorgiaWar(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Georgia_war)
in2008.
ProRussianseparatists,wearingmilitaryuniformswithoutinsignias,seized
(http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/01/world/europe/ukraine.html?
hpw&rref=world)governmentbuildings,airportsandcommunicationhubsin

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5ThingsYouShouldKnowAboutPutin'sIncursionIntoCrimea

theregion.ThenRussiantroopswereputonalerttoprotecttheircitizensin
thearea.CrimeasnewPrimeMinisterhimselfaRussiancitizenhas
appealedforRussiashelp(http://www.bbc.com/news/worldeurope
26397323).
Now,inwhatseemstobeafalseflag
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag)operation,Ukrainesforceshave
beenaccusedofattacking
(http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/tensionsriseinarmedstandoff
incrimeabetweenukrainianandrussianbackedforces337942.html)
CrimeasInteriorMinistry.Areferendumhasbeenscheduledtodecideonthe
regionsstatus.TheRussianParliamenthasapprovedtheuseofmilitaryforce
(http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/tensionsriseinarmedstandoff
incrimeabetweenukrainianandrussianbackedforces337942.html)in
UkraineandtorecalltheirAmbassadorfromtheUS
(http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/ukrainecrisisus
idUSL6N0LY0HP20140301).
LastnightPresidentObamawarnedPutin
(http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/28/world/europe/ukrainepolitics/)ofcosts
forfurtheractionsinCrimeaandthesituationisboundtointensify.Heres
whatyouneedtoknow:
1.WhatIsCrimea?

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Asnotedabove,CrimeaisasemiautonomousregionofUkraine,which
meansthatwhileitispartofUkrainessovereignterritory,itislargelyself
governed.AbeautifulplacelocatedontheBlackSea,withruggedmountains
leadingtosandybeaches,Crimeaisapopulartouristdestination.
Itisalsoatrickyplacepolitically.In1954Khrushchevdecreedthatitbecome
partofUkraine,amovethatmanyinRussiastillseeasillegitimate.Justover
halfofthepopulationareethnicRussians,aquarterareethnicUkrainiansand
mostoftheremainderareCrimeanTatars
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars)who,havingbeendeportedby
Stalinin1944,arefiercelyantiRussian.
In1992,afterthecollapseoftheSovietUnions,Crimeadecidedtojointhe
newlyindependentcountryofUkraine.
2.WhyRussiaWantsIt
CrimealoomslargeinRussianhistory.Itwasthe
siteoftheCrimeanWar
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War)
foughtinthe1850sagainsttheFrench,Britishand
OttomanEmpire(/companies/empire/).Although
Russialost,thebraveryofitssoldiersisstillasource
ofRussianpride,muchlikeTheAlamoinTexas.Its
resortcityofYaltahostedthefamoustalks
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference)
betweenRoosevelt,StalinandChurchill.

YetRussiasinterestsinCrimeagofarbeyond
nostalgia.AsimportantastheregionisforRussian
pride,asthemapbelowshowsitloomsevenlargerinthegeopoliticsofthe
region.

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5ThingsYouShouldKnowAboutPutin'sIncursionIntoCrimea

ThenavalbaseatSevastopol
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevastopol#Russian_naval_base_and_ownership_dispute),
onCrimeassouthwesterntip,isRussiasonlywarmwaternavalbaseandits
primarymeansofextendingforcethroughtheMediterranean.Ithasbeen
allegedthattheportcityhasbeenusedextensivelytosupplyBasharalAssad
throughoutthecurrentcivilwarinSyria.
AndwhiletheleaseagreementwithUkraineregardingthebaseremainsvalid
until2047,themajorityoftheBlackSeacoastlineisheldbyNATOallies
exceptforGeorgiaontheeast,whichisactivelyseekingNATOmembership,
andUkraineinthenorth.
Putsimply,withoutanavalbaseinCrimeaRussiais
finishedasaglobalmilitarypower.
3.WhyUkraineWantsIt
Crimea,itshouldbestressed,issovereignUkrainian
territory.Theregionchosetobecomepartof
Ukraine,itshometoalargeethnicUkrainian
populationanditswhereUkrainiansgotovacation
inthesummer.Ineffect,Crimeaisimportantto
UkraineinthesamewaythatFloridaorTexasare
importanttotheUnitedStates.
WhileitstruethatmanyregionsofCrimea,
especiallySevastopolandthecapitalofSimferopol,areavidlyproRussian,
muchofitisnot.TheTatarsespeciallydonotwant,underanycircumstances,
tobecomeRussiancitizens.
Thereisalsothematterofthe1994BudapestMemorandum
(http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraineexplainerbudapest
memorandum/25280502.html),inwhichUkraineagreedtogiveupits
nuclearweaponsandRussiavowedtorespectUkrainesterritorialintegrity.
Byviolatingthetreaty,Putinissignalingthatallagreementssignedduring
Russiasperiodofweaknessinthe90sarenullandvoid.
4.WhatWereDoingAboutIt
Unfortunately,ifPutinwantstotakeCrimea,theresverylittleUkraine,the
USorNATOcandoaboutit.Russiahasamplemilitaryassetsintheareaand
itisdoubtfulthatashootingwarwillbreakout.Anyfreeandfairreferendum
regardingCrimeansovereigntywouldbeclose,butPutinwillsurelyputhis
fingeronthescales,ensuringvictoryandgivinghimaveneeroflegitimacy.
PresidentObamaheldanunscheduledpressconferenceontheeventsin
Crimeayesterday,expressingdeepconcernandwarningPutinthattherewill
becosts.Thereisanintensediplomaticeffortunderway,involvingboth
RussianandUkrainianofficials,aswellasEuropeanallies.Again,ifPutinis
determined,noneofthiswillbeeffective.

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Yet,theWestisnotwhollywithoutleverageeither.
WhileitwentmostlyunnoticedintheAmerican
press,Obamamadeanunscheduledstop
(http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?
id=11932)toVicePresidentBidensmeetingwith
GeorgiasPrimeMinisterGaribashviliandexpressed
supportforcreatingclosertiesandforitsaspirations
offullNATOmembership.
Itisthislastmovethatmaybethemostsignificant.
Russiaisnolongeragreatpower.Whileitsmilitary
retainssomeimportantcapabilities,itsarmyis
largelymadeupofillequippedandpoorly
disciplinedconscripts,whosefamilieslackthemeansforthemtoavoidservice.
Inthe2008war,Georgiashotdown9ofitsplanesinlessthanaweek.
5.WhatWillBeTheConsequences?
IfPutindoesannexCrimea,itwillsurelybringinternationalcondemnation
and,quiteprobably,someformofimplicitorexplicittradesanctions.Withits
weakenedeconomy,thatisnotsomethingthatRussiacaneasilyaffordanda
downturncanbeexpected.Ifthepriceofoildrops15%20%,thecountry
couldsufferacrisisonthelevelofwhatitenduredinthe1990s.
Putinwillalsoseeamilitarybuildupinhisbackyard.NATOmembershipfor
Georgia,withtheadvancedweaponsystemsandtrainingitwillbring,will
surelydegradeRussiannationalsecurity.TheportofBatumi
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batumi)(seemapabove),couldalsoserveasan
importantmilitaryasset.
Perhapsmostimportantly,annexationofCrimeawillmeanthatPutinhaslost
Ukraineforgood.Itwillbeatransgressionthatwillnotbeforgottenor
forgivenandwillspeedupEuropeanaidandintegration.
TheCrimeanTatars,withtheirdeephatredof
Russia,willresistRussiansovereignty,possibly
resultinginasituationsimilartotheoneinwartorn
Chechnya.TheRussianPresidentis,ineffect,
sowingtheseedsofconflictfordecadestocome.
AndthatiswhatissoworryingaboutPutinslatest
moves.Theyshowthatheisclearlyadesperate
man,willingtomakeacleanbreakwithUkraineand
Europe(http://www.forbes.com/europenews/),
riskanaccelerationofGeorgiasmembershipin
NATOaneventthathewantstoavoidalmostas
muchaslosingUkrainecripplehisowneconomy
andsuppressyetanotherindigenouspopulation.Allforlittletangiblegain.
ItappearsthatPutinfeelsthathehasnothinglefttolose.

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Updates:Forthosewhoareinterested,Imincludingupdatesinafollowup
article:5ImportantFactsThatTheWesternPressIsGettingTerriblyWrong
InUkraine(http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2014/03/04/5
importantfactsthatthewesternpressisgettingterriblywrongin
ukraine/)
(http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2014/03/02/putinislosingin
ukraineandthatsourbiggestproblemrightnow/)
Corrections:InapreviousversionofthisarticleIstatedthatSevastopolwas
Russiasonlywarmwaterport.Somereadershavepointedoutthatitwould
havebeenmoreaccuratetosaythatitisitsonlywarmwaternavalbase.
ThereisanadditionalBlackSeaportatNovorossijsk,thatRussiahasbeen
tryingtoconverttoasuitableNavalbase,buthasntbeenabletodosoyet.
Also,IstatedthatGeorgiashotdownnearly20ofRussiasplanesin2008and
thatprobablyexceededthenumberofUSplanesshotdownsinceVietnam.
Althoughtherewerereportsofthatfigureatthetime,theofficialestimatenow
standsat9,whichisfarlessthanthe50orsoUSplanesshotdowninthetwo
warsinIraq.
Finally,IdescribedtheupcomingreferenduminCrimeaasdecidingwhether
CrimeawouldstaywithUkraineorjoinRussia.Whiletherewereanumberof
earlyreportsindicatingthat,itturnsoutthatthereferendumwillbeabout
increasingCrimeasautonomy.However,Crimeaisalreadylargelyself
governed,soitsnotclearwhatthatmeans.
Iapologizefortheerrorsandthankreadersfortheircorrections.Ifyousee
anythingelseIgotwrong,pleaseletmeknow.
AlsoonForbes:
VladimirPutin
1of30

(http://www.forbes.com/pictures/figi45kdid/vladimir
putin2/)

VladimirPutin

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InthisphototakenonSaturday,July20,2013,Russian
PresidentVladimirPutinfishesduringaminibreakinthe
SiberianTyvaregion(alsoreferredtoasTuva),Russia.(AP
Photo/RIANovosti,AlexeiNikolsky,PresidentialPressService)

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