MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson
RE: PA 12 Special Election Survey Results
DATE: May 3, 2010

Mark Critz has opened up a small but significant lead over Tim Burns in the special election contest
to replace the late John Murtha as the next Congressman from Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional
District, according to a recent poll of 400 likely special election voters conducted for the campaign on
April 27-29, 2010. Critz now leads Burns by an 8 point margin, 45%-37% -- an expansion of the
three-point advantage, 41%-38%, he held in our previous survey from mid-April.

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY

• Effect Of Libertarian Candidate Is Minimal At Best – But Positive: If Libertarian Demo Agoris
is included, Critz still leads by 8 points, 44%-36%, with Agoris taking 2%. In our previous survey,
Agoris’ inclusion turned a three-point Critz advantage into a six-point Critz advantage.

• Positive Name Recognition Of Critz Increased Significantly: In just a two-week period,

Critz’s favorable rating increased by 11 points to 39%, and 60% of voters now say they are
familiar with the formerly unknown candidate.

• Negative Name Recognition Of Burns Increased Even More Significantly: Again, in just the
past two weeks, Burns’ unfavorable rating has tripled, from 8% then to 24% now. Burns’
unfavorable rating is now three points higher than Critz’s – despite the fact that Republican
groups have spent more than double the amount of money attacking Critz as Democratic groups
have spent doing the same to Burns.

• Critz Also Leads On Series Of Candidate Traits Central To Voters’ Decision In Election:
By a margin of 36%-23%, more voters say Critz will fight for the middle class. More voters also
think Critz is the candidate who will make jobs his top priority (32%-23%) and deliver for western
Pennsylvania (32%-23%). Burns does come out on top on one trait: by a 23%-16% margin, more
voters say Burns is the candidate who is out of touch with their concerns.

METHODOLOGICAL NOTE
This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of 400 randomly selected likely voters
in Pennsylvania’s 12th District for the special election on May 18, 2010. Interviewing was conducted
April 27-29, 2010. Special care was taken to ensure that the geographic and demographic divisions
of the actual electorate are properly represented. The estimation error associated with a sample of
400 is 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the
results of this poll are within 4.9 points, plus or minus, of the results that would have been obtained if
all probable special election voters had been interviewed.

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