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Investment Appraisal
Investment Appraisal
Investment Appraisal
Theoretically the only difference between profits and cash flows is of depreciation.
Cash flow = Profit + Depreciation
OR
Profit = Cash flow Depreciation
Decision Rule:
Mutually Exclusive Projects
(Only one project can be selected)
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4.Yn
Investment Appraisal
Year zero represents today or the current time. If it is said that 5 million is invested in a
project today or now, cash outflow of 5 million would be shown in Year zero.
Year 1 would end 12 months from today or Year zero.
Year 2 would end 24 months from Year zero or 12 months from Year 1 and so on.
It is assumed that all cash flows arise at the end of relevant year e.g. if it is said that 1
million would be received in Year 3, it is assumed that it would be received on the last day
of Year 3 and cash inflow of 1 million would be shown in Year 3.
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
(5 m)
0.5 m
2.5 m
2m
Y5
(0.75 m)
2m
2m
Investment Appraisal
Merits
Payback period method is most
widely used initial screening criteria.
It is very simple to calculate and easy
to understand by the managers.
It uses cash flows rather than profits,
cash flows are hard to manipulate
and are not affected by changes in
accounting policies and estimates.
Project with greater initial cash
inflows are favored by this method,
this automatically incorporates risk in
the investment appraisal.
Payback period method is a relative
measure and comparison between
projects is easy.
Demerits
Payback period method ignores time
value of money.
This approach ignores the cash flows
after payback period and thus
ignores the overall profitability of the
project.
Payback period method ignores the
volatility of cash flow within payback
period.
It is a relative measure and ignores
the size and strategic value of the
project.
Choice of targeted payback period is
arbitrary.
Average Profit
Average Investment
x100
Where,
Average Profit = Profit for Y1+Profit for Y2+Profit for Y3+.. Profit for Yn
No of years
Investment Appraisal
Average Investment = Initial Investment + Final Investment (Scrape Value)
2
Some of the other formulae used to calculate ARR are as follows,
ARR = Average Profit x 100
Initial Investment
ARR =
Average Profit
x 100
Mid-year book value
Decision Rule:
Mutually Exclusive Projects
(Only one project can be selected)
Demerits
This method uses profits which can be
easily manipulated by changing
accounting policies and estimates e.g.
by changing the depreciation methods
or useful life of the assets.
ARR ignores time value of money.
There is no absolute method of
calculation ARR that makes
comparison difficult.
It is a relative measure and ignores the
size and strategic value of the project.
Example:
A company is considering an investment of 200,000, which will provide net cash inflow
(before depreciation) of 78,000 each year for four years of its life. It is companys policy that
investments must show a minimum return of 15%.
Required:
a). Calculate ARR for each year of the project and for four years combined.
b). Taking into account the targeted ARR of 15%, comment on the viability of the project.
Investment Appraisal
Compounding/Calculation of Future
Values
Annuities
Annuity in Advance
Delayed Perpetuities
Discounting/Calculation of Present
Values
Delayed Annuities
Perpetuities
Perpetuity in Advance
Simple Interest
1000
100
1000+100 = 1100
(1000 x 10%) 100
1000+100+100 = 1200
(1000 x 10%) 100
(1000+100+100+100) = 1300
Compound Interest
1000
100
1000+100 = 1100
(1100 x 10%) 110
1000+100+110 = 1210
(1210 x 10%) = 121
(1000+100+110+121) = 1331
Compounding Formula:
Investment Appraisal
Following formula can be used to calculate Future Value of any amount invested today provided
compound interest rate and no of compounding periods.
n
Future Value (FV) = PV (1+r)
Where,
n = Number of compounding periods (No of years if one compounding period is equal to one
year).
r = Compound interest rate.
PV = Present Value/amount of initial investment.
Example:
Using compounding formula, calculate FV of 1000 invested today in three years time assuming
10% interest rate?
Discounting/Calculation of Present Values:
What amount should be invested today in order to yield 2000 in 2 years? The investment
required at year 0 in order to get any specific future value is called Present Value (PV).
Present Value is calculated with following formula,
-n
Present Value (PV)/Initial Investment = FV (1+r)
-n
The factor (1+r) is called discount factor. This factor is calculated using numerous values of
compound interest r and compounding periods n and results are provided in the form of present
value tables. The discounting formula can be rephrased as,
PV = FV x Discount factor.
What amount should be invested today in order to get 1331 after 3 years assuming 10%
compound interest? The investment required today would be the Present Value of 1331 to be
received in 3 years. The discounting calculation reverses of compounding calculation and is
illustrated as follows;
Year 3 Future Value
Less: Compounded interest amount for Y3
Year 2 Future Value
Less: Compounded interest amount for Y2
Year 1 Future Value
Less: Compound interest amount for Y1
Year 0 Present Value
1331
(121)
1210
(110)
1100
(100)
1000
Investment Appraisal
If a similar cash flow is to be received each year for a certain period of time, it is called annuity.
E.g. if 1000 would be received each year for 5 years, 1000 is called cash flow in annuity.
The first cash flow would be made by the end of Year 1.
Cash flows would be made each year and no period would be skipped out of a given period.
What amount should be invested today to get 1000 each year for next 5 years? This calculation
calls for calculation present value of an annuity of 1000 for five years.
Following formula can be used to calculate the PV of an annuity.
PV of Annuity = Annuity x Annuity Factor
Once again, annuity factor can be found from annuity tables or by adding the present value
factors of years involved in annuity calculation. In our example, annuity factor can be calculated
by adding PV factor of year 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.
The annuity factor provided in the annuity table can be used provided the following conditions are
met,
The first cash flow would be made by the end of year 1.
No period/year would be skipped out of given annuity period.
Delayed Annuity:
The matter discussed below deals with the violation of the first assumption of annuity formula i.e.
the first cash flow must arise by the end of year 1.
If annuity is does not start from year 1, the annuity factor is adjusted. For example, if 1000 is to
be received for 5 years starting in 3 years time, the time line will be as follows,
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
1000
Y4Y5
1000
Y6
Y7
1000 1000
1000 y
The annuity factor would be manufactured by deducting the 2 years annuity factor form 7 years
annuity factor.
Manufactured Annuity factor = 7 year annuity factor 2 years annuity factor
PV of delayed annuity = Annuity x manufactured/adjusted annuity factor.
Annuity in Advance:
Annuity in advance also violates the assumption that first annuity should arise by the end of year
1. In the case of advanced annuity, first cash flow arise by the start of year 1 or in year 0. For
example, if 1000 is to be received for 5 years and first annuity is to be received now or in year 0,
the data can be presented using time line as follows;
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Investment Appraisal
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
Investment Appraisal
Perpetuity:
A perpetuity is a cash flow that arises for infinite period of time e.g. if 1000 is to be received
forever, it is referred that 1000 would be received in perpetuity. PV of perpetuity is calculated as
follows,
PV of perpetuity = 1/R x perpetuity
Where,
R = Interest rate/discount rate
Delayed Perpetuity:
The above mentioned formula for calculating PV of perpetuity cant be used if perpetuity does not
arise at the end of year one. For example 1000 is to be received every year in perpetuity starting
in 3 years time, the time line would be as follow,
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Yn
1000---------------------------------------------------------1000
PV
PV of Perpetuity
Investment Appraisal
Investment Appraisal
Calculation of IRR:
Following steps should be followed in order to calculate IRR,
1. Assume a discount rate and calculate the NPV of the project.
2. Assume another (higher than the previous) discount rate and recalculate NPV of
the project.
3. Use the following formula to calculate IRR of the project,
IRR = a + [A/A-B x (b-a)]
Where,
a = discount rate at which NPV is higher or positive.
b = discount rate at which NPV is lower or negative.
A = amount of higher or positive NPV.
B = amount of lower or negative NPV.
Example:
Calculate IRR of the project detailed in previous example.
Adjustment to NPV
NPV calculation is adjusted for the followings;
a)
b)
c)
d)
Investment Appraisal
e) Adjustment for risk and uncertainty.
General overheads
overheads
are
unavoidable hence
project decisions.
or
absorbed
considered
irrelevant for
Relevant Costs
Avoidable costs:
Costs which can be avoided by not accepting
a project or by not making a decision are
called avoidable costs. Avoidable costs are
relevant for the project decisions.
Examples:
o
o
Opportunity cost:
The benefit of the best alternative forgone by
preferring one alternative over the other is
called opportunity cost.
Opportunity costs become relevant if the
resources are scarce.
Examples:
o
Investment Appraisal
Real Approach
Investment Appraisal
Investment decision calculations can be adjusted for taxation in following two approaches,
Approach 1
Approach 2
o In this approach only one cash flow
o In this approach two cash flows
relating taxation is included in the
regarding taxation are included in
NPV calculation.
computation.
o The cash outflow due to taxation is
o Tax payable is calculated by applying
calculated by applying tax rate to the
tax rate on cash profits ignoring
cash profits after capital allowances.
capital allowances initially.
o Capital allowances are never treated
o Capital allowances are calculated in
as a cash inflow/saving directly
workings and potential tax savings
because these are not received in
due capital allowances are calculated
cash.
by applying tax rate to the capital
o Cash profits are adjusted for capital
allowance of each year.
o Tax payable is shown as tax outflow
allowances prior calculation of tax
payable for each year in workings
while tax savings due to capital
only.
allowances is shown as cash inflow
o It is assumed that tax is paid one year
each year.
o It
is
assumed
that
all
in arrears i.e. tax payable in year one
will be shown in year two and so on.
savings/payments arise after one year
i.e. tax saving/payment of year1 will
arise in year 2.
Investment Appraisal
Sensitivity of a variable =
Note: The sensitivity of the contribution can also be taken as sensitivity of the sales volume
and selling price. Sensitivity of cost of capita/discount rate is calculated using a different
formula that is as follows;
Sensitivity of cost of capital =
x100
This approach assumes that all other variables will remain constant other than
the variable whose sensitivity is being calculated. This assumption is unrealistic.
The most sensitive variable identified by the management might be outside of
control of management e.g. sales demand, selling prices etc.
Sensitivity of a variable is a relative measure it significance of certain important
factor might be undermined.
Sensitivity analysis assumes that all the factors are independent of each other
which is not true in practice.
Investment Appraisal
Advantages of NPV Method:
1. Considers the time value of money.
2. Considers all relevant cash flows.
3. Risks can be incorporated into decision-making by adjusting the cost of capital for risk
and inflation.
4. Considers cash flows rather than profits which are unaffected by the accounting policies.
5. NPV is an absolute measure and calculates the net increase/decrease in the worth of the
business considering complete life of the project.
6. NPV considers the relative size of the investment.
7. NPV can incorporate non-conventional cash flows.
Disadvantages of NPV Method:
1. Future cash flows may be difficult to forecast.
2. The basic decision rule that all project with positive NPV will not apply in capital rationing
situation.
3. The cost of capital is difficult to calculate.
4. The cost of capital may change over the life of the project.
5. The assumption that firms persue the objective of maximizing shareholders wealth may
be questionable given wider range of stakeholders.
6. Not for profit organization may invest in capital assets but may use non-profit objectives
to appraise their investment, NPV is redundant in such organizations.
7. The assumptions that cash surplus can be invested at the discount rate may not be
practical.
8. NPV cant be used easily when the cash flows are not arising at the year-end.
9. Managerial incentive schemes may not be consistent with NPV. Incentive schemes are
usually related with accounting profits.
10. NPV only takes into account the time value of money and ignores the time horizons
involved. Managers may prefer projects with more near cash flows.
11. NPV cant consider non-quantifiable cost and benefits.
Assumptions Underlying IRR Method:
1. Objective of the firm is to maximize the wealth of the shareholders.
2. Investor is rational.
3. All cash outflows are reinvested at IRR.
Advantages of IRR Method:
1. The managers easily understand it.
2. IRR is a relative measure and more suitable for the comparisons.
3. It calculate the breakeven cost of capital and the margin of safety and makes decision
making easier.
4. Consider time value of money and cash flows rather than accounting profits.
Disadvantages of IRR Method:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Investment Appraisal
NPV and IRR Compared
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.