Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Levered Unlevered
Long-term government bond yield 3.81% 3.81%
Market equity premium 3.50% 3.50%
Beta coefficient 2.3000
HD cost of equity 11.86% #NAME?
Cost of debt 0.00%
Effective Tax Rate 35.80%
Debt ratio 35.00%
WACC 7.71%
HD- Income Statement
Income Taxes
Provision for income taxes for the years ended December 31 consists of the following (in thousands):
2007 2008 2009
Current:
Federal $ 510,299 $ 376,796 $ 94,984
State 27,076 21,174 5201
Foreign 35,229 29,044 1395
572,604 427,014 101,580
Deferred:
Federal -51,903 -36,368 -10,665
State -5,089 -2,225 22,690
Foreign -1,636 -6,735 -5,586
-58,628 -45,328 6439
Total $ 513,976 $ 381,686 $ 108,019
The components of income before income taxes for the years ended December 31 were as follows (in thousands):
2007 2008 2009
Domestic $1,340,617 $992,796 $ 185,435
Foreign 107202 73125 -6,775
$1,447,819 $1,065,921 $ 178,660
The provision for income taxes differs from the amount that would be provided by applying the statutory U.S. corporate income tax rate
due to the following items for the years ended December 31:
2007 2008 2009
Provision at statutory rate 35.% 35.% 35.%
State taxes, net of federal benefit 1.5 1.5 2.7
Domestic manufacturing deduction -1.3 -1 —
Research and development credit -0.4 -0.5 -1.7
Unrecognized tax benefits including interest and penalties 0.6 1.1 2.3
Valuation allowance adjustments — — 12.4
Goodwill impairment — — 5.6
Other 0.1 -0.3 4.2
Provision for income taxes 35.5% 35.8% 60.5%
08,019
85,435
78,660
U.S. corporate income tax rate
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.
Comparative Consolidated Balance sheets
5,656,606 7,828,625
Shareholders' equity:
Common stock 3,352 3,357
Additional paid in capital 812,224 846,796
Retained earnings 6,117,567 6,458,778
Accumulated other comprehensive income/(loss) 137,258 522,526
Treasury stock 4,420,394 4,670,802
Unearned compensation
Total shareholders' equity 2,375,491 2,115,603
2008
Land and related improvements 59,603
Buildings and related improvements 469,580
Machinery and equipment 2,277,593
Construction in progress 131,257
2,938,033
Less: accumulated depreciation 1,881,105
1,056,928
Accrued liabilities (in thousands):
2008
Payroll, performance incentives and related expenses 158,128
Restructuring reserves 2,149
Warranty and recalls 64,543
Sales incentive programs 84,683
Income taxes 10,770
Fair value of derivative financial instruments 23,503
Other 159,690
503,466
Components of accumulated other comprehensive loss, net of tax (in thousands):
2008
Cumulative foreign currency translation adjustment ($ 15,171 )
Unrealized loss on investment in retained securitization interest 2,671
Unrealized net loss on derivative financial instruments 7,701
Unrecognized pension and postretirement benefit plan liabilities 527,325
522,526
Comparative data
ASSETS 2009 2008 2007 2005
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$1,630,433 $568,894 $402,854 $140,975
Marketable securities 39685 2475 905197
Accounts receivable, net
269371 265319 181217 122087
Finance receivables, net (1986-2003)
Finance receivables held for sale (2004-2008)
2443965 781280 299373
Finance receivables held
1436114
for investment,1378461
net (2004-2009) 1575283 1342393
Inventories 323029 379141 349697 221418
Deferred income taxes179685 123327 103278 61285
Prepaid expenses 282421 128730 71230 52509
181,211
Net assets from discontinued op's 238715 - - ----------
Total current assets 4341949 5526552 3467314 3145237
Finance receivables, net
3621048 817102 845044 600831
Property, plant and equipment,
906906 net 1056928 1060590 1011612
Deferred income taxes177,504 288,240 54,376
Goodwill 31400 60131 61401 56563
Other assets (incl. Prepaid
76711pension costs)
79672 167881 440966
Debt with a contractual term greater than one year is generally classified as long-term debt and consisted of the following as of
December 31 (in thousands):
2008
Unsecured commercial paper $177,800
Bank borrowings
Credit facilities 390932
Secured debt
On-balance sheet securitization debt —
Unsecured notes
5.00% Medium-term notes due in 2010 ($200.0 million par value) 209684
5.25% Medium-term notes due in 2012 ($400.0 million par value) 399643
5.75% Medium-term notes due in 2014 ($500.0 million par value) —
6.80% Medium-term notes due in 2018 ($1,000.0 million par value) 998179
15.00% senior unsecured notes due in 2014 ($600.0 million par value) —
Gross long-term debt 2176238
Less: current portion of long-term debt —
Long-term debt $2,176,238
2009 Delta 08-07Delta 09-08
1,630,433
39,685
269,371 (84,102) (4,052)
- - -
- (1,662,685) 2,443,965
1,436,114 196,822 (57,653)
323,029 (29,444) 56,112
179,685 (20,049) (56,358)
282,421 (57,500) (153,691)
(181,211 ) (238,715) 57,504
4,341,949
3,621,048
906,906
(177,504 )
31,400
76,711
9,155,518
- - -
162,515 (3,089) 140,762
514,084 (18,530) (10,618)
69,535 (77,941) 8,406
189,999 (1,738,649) 1,548,650
1,332,091 1,119,955 (1,332,091)
2,268,224
4,114,039
(245,332 )
264,472
155,333
3,368
871,100
6,324,268
417,898
4,672,720
2,108,118
9,155,518
2009
104,641
( 168,002 )
( 84,823 )
( 357,466 )
34,437
323,029
ber 31, 2009 and 2008,
2009
59,922
474,891
2,311,779
112,498
2,959,090
2,052,184
906,906
2009
137,523
67,711
68,044
62,206
16,038
16,293
146,269
514,084
2009
($ 46,103 )
3,484
8,940
451,577
417,898
he following as of
PAR (in M$)int rate
2009
$ 135,100
448049
2,159,585
($000) Historical
2009 2010
Sales 4287130 4106642
Cost of Sales 2900934 2683718
Gross Profit 1386196 1422923
Sales, General & Administrative Expenses 979384 814766
EBITDA 406812 608157
Depreciation 246344 212111
EBIT 160468 396046
Interest Expense 21680 343122
Interest Income 43043
Pretax Income 95967
Current Income Tax 59,953,653,749
Net Income -59953557783
($000) Historical
2009 2010
Assets
Current:
Cash and Marketable Securities 1670118 -59953647248
Accounts Receivable 1705485 1993313
Inventories 323029 279768
Other Current Assets 2079431 2210933
Total Current Assets 5778063 4456159
Liabilities
Current:
Short-term Debt & Current Portion of LTD 1522090 1575127
Accounts Payable 162,515 140674
Accrued Expenses & Other Liabilities 514084 403606
Total Current Liabilities 2198689 2119407
Long-term Debt 4114039 2681973
Total Liabilities 6312728 4801380
Common Stock and Retained Earnings 3746945 -59949810838
Total Liabilities and Net Worth 10059673 -59945009458
59953653626
($000) Historical
2009 2010
Funds from Operating Activities
Net Income #NAME? -59953557783
Depreciation 246344 212111
Decrease (Increase) in Current Assets -376069
Increase (Decrease) in Current Liabilities except debt -132319
Decrease (Increase) in Net Working Capital -508388
Funds From Operations -59953854060
Actual
Required cash balance ………………...…… 1670118 687816
Excess cash ………………………………….. -59954335064
Increase in Net Debt 59953938337
Net debt 3040713
528571 3569284
Enterprise Value
($000)
Year-end 2009 2010
Valuation
WACC 7.71%
PV{FCF} @ WACC 366,506
Continuation growth rate 4.00%
Continuation value
PV{Continuation value} @ WACC (701,528)
Enterprise value (335,023)
Debt value 4,304,038
Equity Value (4,639,061)
N of shares 234,304,383
Price per share (0.02)
FORECASTS
Forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
4102946 4226034 4570456 5131251 5760855 6467712 7261301
2761742 2844594 2922607 3078751 3456513 3880627 4356780
1341204 1381440 1647849 2052500 2304342 2587085 2904520
773331 756705 777457 872851 979950 1100190 1235183
567872 624735 870391 1179649 1324392 1486895 1669337
212846 160895 174008 195358 219329 246241 276454
355026 463840 696384 984291 1105063 1240654 1392883
320394 352476 491075 665558 747222 838906 941840
### ### ### ### ### ### 68813
### ### ### ### ### 459804 519856
### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### 66959 130158 218004 260875 ### ###
Forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-1,474,230
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
2007
Net cash provided by (used by) operating activities of continuing
operations (Note 2) ($ 798,146 )
Net cash (used by) provided by investing activities of continuing operations 391,205
Year-end 2007
Interest 81,474
Income taxes 568,815
2008 2009
(608,029) ($ 609,010 )
(228,959) (116,748)
(608,621) (1,378,226)
( 448,990 ) 607,168
93,747 61,170
(- ) (39,685)
2,543 (- )
(2,575) 2,834
(294,875) (863,487)
( 993,550 ) 496,514
(400,000) (- )
(- ) 595,026
(- ) 2,413,192.00
(- ) (263,083)
( 761,065 ) (1,083,331)
( 490,000 ) (513,168)
(- ) (- )
(- ) (167,667)
(302,314) (93,807)
(250,410) (1,920)
320 170
1,179 11
( 1,293,390 )( 1,381,937 )
(20,352) 6,789
( 370,134 ) ( 1,134,249 )
(75,028) (71,298)
(99,963) (18,805)
(4,439) (1,208)
(179,430) (91,311)
($ 190,704 ) ($ 1,042,938 )
($ 402,854 ) ($ 568,894 )
(- ) 24,664
190,704 ( 1,042,938 )
(24,664) (6,063)
($ 568,894 ) ($ 1,630,433 )
2008 2009
654,718.00 (55,116.00)
- -
652,300.07 (55,116.00)
(45,328.00) 6,439.00
606,972.07 (42,438.49)
220,755.00 246,344.00
(14,372.00) (47,266.00)
(217,093.00) (96,322.00)
596,262.07 60,317.51
2008 2009
$ 654,718 (55,116 )
(125,757 )
684235 70641
220,755 246,344
76,426 118,201
(15,302) (233,224)
24,473 17,576
5,370 (— )
99,373 332,167
(2,788,463) (1,180,467)
507,106 919,201
467,722 (— )
41,403 45,370
37,764 5,895
(— ) 46,410
(— ) 37,814
39,555 169,206
(46,729) 6,931
2,892 (22,234)
53,978 76,445
2,710 8,809
(7,149) (3,360)
(42,263) 85,472
45,998 (239,009)
2,149 65,988
(11,962) 4,711
(3,855) 30,123
(14,372) (47,266)
(1,292,264) 538,369
(608,029) 609,010
128,006 336,453
413,998 123,232
HD motorbikes financial analysis and forecasts
($000) Historical
2007
Operations:
Unit Sales Growth -5.3%
Price grows with
inflation
Inflation rates from Price Growth 2.9%
www.inflationdata.co
m Growth Rate of Sales -2.6%
Working Capital:
Cash balance as % of Sales 6.598%
Accounts Receivable as % of Sales 41.3%
Inventories as % of Cost of Sales 6.1%
Other Current Assets as % of Sales 44.20%
60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Company cost grew in the last three years becau
17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% Company's SGAEs increased because of lower sa
12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3%
in the last three years because of the lower volumes. However the company is investing in technology and effic
creased because of lower sales, but we would expect them to revert to the historical average value of 17%
ffect the depreciation ratio, therefore we will consider the average on the previous years.
ar is clearly overstated due to the low EBITDA. We would assume a ratio in line with the actual credit rating (BBB
lated from the information given in note 13.
technology and efficiency, and we expect this to lead to COGS of 60% once sales will start growing again
ge value of 17%
Working Capital:
Cash balance as % of Sales 6.6%
Accounts Receivable as % of Sales 2.9%
Inventories as % of Cost of Sales 6.1%
Other Current Assets as % of Sales 44.20%
15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% Financial services to customers and dealers are e
60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Company cost grew in the last three years becau
17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% Company's SGAEs increased because of lower sa
18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9%
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
20% 20% 20% 20%
0 0 0 0
20% 20% 20% 20% Divestures in 2009 affect the depreciation ratio,
in the last three years because of the lower volumes. However the company is investing in technology and effic
creased because of lower sales, but we would expect them to revert to the historical average value of 17%
ffect the depreciation ratio, therefore we will consider the average on the previous years.
ar is clearly overstated due to the low EBITDA. We would assume a ratio in line with the actual credit rating (BBB
lated from the information given in note 13.
s, as buying with credit financing is increasingly popular.
technology and efficiency, and we expect this to lead to COGS of 60% once sales will start growing again
ge value of 17%
144,464
78559
223,023
9,572
-27% 9%
-9%
-35.20%