TRITA-INFRA 02-010

ISSN 1651-0216
ISRN KTH/INFRA--02/010-SE
EMV\Etapp1\admin\ Slutrapport\KTH\Trafikskerhet\Traffic Conflict Technique

Projekt: VV dnr AL 9099:3393

Effektmodeller fr vgtrafikanlggningar (EMV)

Traffic Conflict Technique

Historical to current State-of-the-Art

Lun d Traffi c C o nflic t Te c hniq uue

e

Fatal
Severe
Slight
Damag e
Only

Accidents
Near Accidents

Serious
} Conflicts

Slight Conflicts
Potential Conflicts

Speed (km/h)

Undisturbed Passages

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

Time To Accident (secs)

Stockholm September 2001

Jeffery Archer
Institutionen fr Infrastruktur KTH
Avdelningen fr trafik och logistik

4.5

Summary
The Traffic Conflict Technique (TCT) is perhaps the most developed indirect measure of
traffic safety. The technique itself is grounded in the ability to register the occurrence of nearaccidents directly in real-time traffic and therefore offers a faster and, in many respects, more
representative way of estimating expected accident frequency and accident outcomes. The
main criticisms levelled at indirect methods concern issues of reliability and validity and
whether accident risk is actually being measured in a satisfactory manner.

History
The conflict technique emanates from research originally at the Detroit General Motors
laboratory in the late 1960s for identifying safety problems related to vehicle construction
(Perkins & Harris, 1968). The use of this technique soon spread to different parts of the world.
TRL in England soon recognised the need to add a subjective scale for observed conflicts as
a measure of severity (Spicer, 1973). This technique was based on observer judgements
using time-lapse filming, thereby proving costly and time-consuming. The Swedish Traffic
Conflict Technique (STCT) was developed at LTH in different projects during the 1970s and
1980s before finally reaching its present day level of development in 1987 (Hydn, 1987).
The Swedish technique focuses on situations where two road-users would have collided had
neither of them made any kind of aversive manoeuvre. The point at which the aversive action
is taken is recorded through observation as the Time-to-Accident(TA). The TA value
together with the conflicting speed is used to determine whether or not a conflict is serious.
The technique itself was designed to focus only serious conflicts, although more recent work
by sa Svensson at LTH has shown that the shape of the severity hierarchy i.e. the
relationship between a number of successive severity levels, is also useful for gaining insight
into, and making comparisons between different traffic sites. Other conflict techniques were
also developed parallel to the Lund version. The variance among 8 different existing conflict
techniques was investigated by the International Committee for Traffic Conflict Techniques
(now the International Cooperation on Theories and Concepts in Traffic Safety chaired by
Christer Hydn) in 1984 (Grayson, 1984). The resulting differences were found to be
negligible and mainly dependent on local variations in the definition of severity.

Useability, Reliability and Validity

While the interest for the conflict technique has been considerable, its practical use has been
limited due to questions concerning reliability and validity and the relative costs involved with
data collection (e.g. Hauer, 1978). The Swedish technique is by far the most commonly used
technique for research purposes, and is recognized in many countries all over the world.
Questions concerning reliability are related to the subjective element in the registration
process where trained observed judge speed and distance. Tests have shown rates of up to
80 per cent agreement between different observers. Questions concerning validity focus on
whether or not the technique is an accurate proximal measure of accident occurrence.
Also, product (predictive) validity concerns the relationship between serious conflicts and the
numbers of accidents. An American study by Migletz et.al. (1985) showed that normal conflict
studies could produce estimates of average accident frequency that were at least as accurate
as those based on historical accident data, and Svensson (1992) concluded from Swedish
data that serious conflicts provide a better estimate of the number of expected accidents
involving personal injury. The results of studies in many different countries have also been
compared to show that the relative statistics for conflicts and accidents are in agreement
despite environmental differences.

Another major concern is process validity, i.e. whether the processes that determine conflicts
are also the same as those that determine accidents. Hydn (1987) concluded, on the basis
of data relating to TA and speed values, that conflicts and accidents did in fact share the
same severity distribution, and that accidents generally had a 0.5 sec lower TA-value and
speeds of up to 10-20 kph than those found in serious conflicts.

State-of-the-Art
A thorough search in the Ingent, a database covering a wide range of different journals in the
fields of engineering technology, transportation, social sciences and social and public welfare
(e.g. Accident Analysis and Prevention, and Transportation Research) provided surprisingly
little information. Only four published articles of any interest were found which directly indicate
the use of the traffic conflict technique. The reason for this poor result may perhaps lie in the
fact that, although many studies employ the conflict technique as part of their safety
evaluation strategy, few consider it important enough to include in the title or abstract. A
similarly misfortunate search was also made on the Traffic Psychology section of the
PsychInfo database. The articles that were found are listed below:
1) Use of the traffic conflict technique to identify hazardous intersections. Katamine, N. M.; Harmarneh, I. M. Road &
transport research, 1998, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 17
2) Modeling Conflicts of Heterogeneous Traffic at Urban Uncontrolled Intersections. Rao, V. Trinadha; Rengaraju, V.
R. Journal of transportation engineering, 1998, vol. 124, no. 1, pp. 23
3) Conflict analysis for prediction of fatal crash locations in mixed traffic streams. Tiwari, G; Mohan, D; Fazio, J;
Accident Analysis & Prevention. Vol 30(2), Mar 1998, pp. 207-215
4) Influence of Traffic Signal Timing on Red-Light Running and Potential Vehicle Conflicts at Urban Intersections.
Retting, Richard A.; Greene, Michael A. Transportation Research Record, 1997, no.1595, pp.1 Washington, DC;
National Academy Press

Owing to the lack of information provided by the database searches a closer look was made
at the LTH, Department of Technology and Society (TFT) website looking at the current
research section and their list of publications stretching back over the last 10 years. The
research section suggests that there is a great interest in the further development of TCT
through the use of a video-based technique for image processing of all kinds of safety-related
events, from accidents, via serious conflicts to safe interactions. It is hoped that this more
objective method of data collection will allow the development of a broader concept for safety
assessment. In response to this an e-mail was sent to sa Svensson to ask for more
information concerning how far the video technique had progressed. To date no response has
been received, and it is possible to assume that there are still many serious and potentially
limiting factors that restrict the use of video recording to the point where is not yet viable for
traffic safety research in general. What does appear important from the website is that there is
a distinct move from serious conflicts to all forms of road-user interaction to establish what
might be termed a safety profile for a specific intersection. This formed the basis for sa
Svenssons doctorate thesis completed in 1998.
To date no further publications on the shape of the severity hierarchy, originally assumed to
be in the form of a three-sided pyramid by Christer Hydn, have been forthcoming. A look at
the publication lists also reveals only a modest number of articles relating directly to the use
of the conflict technique. These are listed below:
1) Shbeeb, Lina: Development of a traffic conflicts technique for different environments : a comparative
study of pedestrian conflicts in Sweden and Jordan.
Doctoral thesis. Bulletin 188, 2000
2) Hydn, Christer; Almqvist, Sverker: Traffic safety assessments based on traffic conflicts. Field study
in Kingston, Jamaica, No. 7136, 1995
3) ICTCT. The use of traffic conflicts technique and related methods for the evaluation of new
technologies in road traffic with respect to safety and sustainability. Proceedings of 5th workshop of
ICTCT Helsinki & Tallinn, Oct 92, Bulletin 115, 1993
4) SVENSSON . 1991, Vidareutveckling och validering av den svenska konflikttekniken (Development
and validation of the Swedish traffic conflicts technique). LTH, Lund

One further option has been to use a newly developed radar technique for conflict detection.
The system developed by Sensys Traffic was tested at a site in Borlnge but proved to be
unsuitable in its present form for this type of data collection. The radar technique requires a
great deal of adaptation for conflict detection, and although the company has expressed an
interest in the further development of a safety detection device, it is unlikely that any work will
take place in the near future owing to the present economical climate at Sensys.
By far the most important, interesting, and relevant work with regard to the EMV project, has
been carried out by Prof Tarek Sayed at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver,
Canada. In a paper entitled Traffic Conflict Standards for Intersections from 1999 (a copy is
attached). Sayed describes the application of the traffic conflict technique to estimate traffic
safety at intersections based on data collected from 94 conflict surveys at both signalised and
unsignalised intersections, and has developed standards that allow for a relative comparison
of conflict risk using an Intersection Conflict Index. Additionally, regression analyses have
been used to develop predictive models that relate the number of conflicts to traffic volume
and accidents. Work by Sayed intended to enhance the usefulness of the traffic conflict
technique for intersection safety evaluation. Also, a case study is provided in the paper. This
work is also supported by two other papers (Sayed & Zein, 1998; Sayed 1997). Sayed has
also considered the use traffic conflicts using micro-simulation for assessing safety standards
and many of his findings have had a significant influence on the current work in the SINDI
project and the further development of the HUTSIM windows based simulation tool (Zein, S.,
Sayed, T., Nepomuceno, J., and deLeur, P., 1995; Sayed, T., Brown, G., and Navin, F.,
1994).

Alternative:
Objective Measures of Traffic Conflicts
As stated above, the subjective nature of the conflict technique require considerable
judgement by the conflict observer and have been criticised because of the inter-observer
variability in grading the severity of the evasive action. Alternative objective measures are
said to include a cardinal or time-proximity dimension in the severity scale. The most common
measure of this type is Time-to-Collision (TTC) defined as the time it takes for two vehicles
to collide if they continue on their present trajectory at the same speed. The original definition
was coined by Hayward in 1972, although there was a lot of very similar research at various
research establishments at this time. When there is a collision course the TTC-value
becomes finite and decreases with time, the critical measurement in estimating conflict
severity is therefore the minimum TTC during the conflict. Furthermore, it should be noted that
TTC distributions have been applied in several studies to identify traffic safety impacts
(Fancher et.al.,1997; Van Arem & De Vos, 1997). Variations on the TTC concept include
Post-Encroachment Times (situations where no collision course prevails but the time
difference over a common spatial point is below a given threshold e.g. 1.5 secs), and
Deceleration-to-Safety Time (see e.g. Hydn, 1996, Topp, 1998).
A new and highly interesting development of the TTC measure has been suggested by
Minderhood and Bovy (2000). The authors suggest two new safety indicators based on TTC
that are useful for comparative road traffic safety analyses. In contrast to the classical TTC
values that are measured at a specific cross section, the new indicators use vehicle
trajectories collected over a specific time period for a certain roadway segment in order to
calculate a general safety indicator value. These values can then be analyses to determine
vehicle-specific indicator values and safety-critical probabilities. The first of these new
indicators is the Time Exposed TTC which measures the length of time that all vehicles
involved in conflicts spend under a designated TTC minimum threshold during a specified
time period. The second indicator is the Time Integrated TTC which uses the integral of the
TTC profile of drivers to express the level of safety over the specified time period. Together
these values can be used to derive average values per vehicle and the probability of safety
critical situations per time unit. This new approach provides valuable comparative safety data
and also provides a very useful measure to calibrating simulation models.

Safety Indicators and Micro-simulation

It is evident that traffic safety analyses with microscopic traffic simulation have a number of
restrictions. Most importantly, driver behaviour in real road traffic is more diverse and less
predictable than can be implemented within any model whatever the level of detail. Normal
microscopic simulation models are developed for e.g. traffic-flow analyses, and require far
less consideration to driver behaviour and error modelling than that essential for safety
analyses. There is also little or no lateral vehicle movement. However, despite these and
various other limitations it is believed that this type of simulation can give valuable insights
into the relative safety impacts brought about by changes of traffic flow, various ITS devices
placed inside the vehicle or on the roadway, different signalling strategies, and many other
dependent aspects. Measuring safety indicators such as TA, and TTC that emanate from the
microscopic simulation of vehicle dynamics and driver behaviour (including the probability of
errors) in the traffic environment is an essential part of the SINDI project.

References:
Grayson, G.B. (1984). The Malm study. A calibration of traffic conflict techniques. Institute for Road
Safety Research SWOV, Leidscendam
Hauer, E. (1978). Traffic conflict surveys: some study design considerations. TRRL Supplementary
Report 352. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire, UK
Hydn, C. (1987). The development of a method for traffic safety evaluation: The Swedish Traffic
Conflicts Technique. Bulletin 70. Institute fr Trafikteknik, LTH,Lund
Hydn, C. (1996). Traffic Conflicts Technique: State-of-the-art. In: Topp H.H. (Ed.), (1998). Traffic Safety
Work with video-processing. University Kaiserslautern. Transportation Department, 1998, Green Series
No.43
Migletz, D.J., Glauz, W.D. & Bauer, K.M. (1985) Relationships between traffic conflicts and accidents.
Report No: FHWA/RD-84/042. US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.
Perkins, S.R., & Harris, J.I. (1968). Traffic conflict characteristics: Accident potential at intersections.
Highway Research Record. 225, pp45-143, Highway Research Board, Washington DC
Sayed, T. (1997) "Estimating the Safety of Unsignalized Intersections Using Traffic Conflicts" Third
International Symposium on Intersections without Traffic Signals, Transportation Research Board,
Oregon, July 21-23.
Sayed, T., and Zein, S. (1998). "Traffic Conflict Models and Standards for Signalized and Unsignalized
Intersections" , Proceedings of the CSCE 2nd Transportation Specialty Conference, June 10-13,
Halifax.
Sayed, T., and Zein, S. (1999). "Traffic Conflict Standards for Intersections" , Transportation Planning
and Technology , Vol. 22, pp. 309-323.
Sayed, T., Brown, G., and Navin, F., (1994) "Simulation of Traffic Conflicts at Unsignalized Intersections
With TSC-Sim", AccidentAnalysis and Prevention, Vol. 26(5), pp. 593-607.
Spicer, B.A. (1973). Study of traffic conflicts at six intersections. TRRL Report LR551. Transport and
Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire, UK
Svensson, . (1992). Vidareutveckling och validering av den svenska konflikttekniken (Development
and validation of the Swedish traffic conflicts technique). LTH, Lund
Topp, H.H. (Ed.), (1998). Traffic Safety Work with video-processing. University Kaiserslautern.
Transportation Department, 1998, Green Series No.43
Zein, S., Sayed, T., Nepomuceno, J., and deLeur, P., (1995) "Advancements in Traffic Conflict
Research: Standards and Simulation", 1995 Annual Conference, Transportation Association of Canada
(TAC), Victoria, Canada,October 22-25.