Daily Exclusive ORYZA

Rice E-Newsletter

April 20,2016
Vol 7,Issue IV

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Brazil Paddy Rice Index Increases Slightly

from Previous Week

The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied
Economics (CEPEA) reached around 39.7 real per 50 kilograms as of April 15, 2016, up about
0.25% from about 39.6 real per 50 kilograms recorded a week ago.
In terms of USD, the index reached around $227.3 per ton on April 15, 2016, up around 1% from
around $225.6 per ton recorded a week ago.
Month-on-month, the index has decreased around 1% from around 39.99 real per 50 kilograms
recorded month ago. In terms of USD, the index increased around 7% during the month.

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Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Their Quotes

Today; Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed
Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice and A1 super
rice by about $5 per ton each to around $380-$390 per ton, $365-$375 per ton and $340-$350 per
ton respectively today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $20
per ton to around $460-$470 per ton and lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5
per ton to around $335-$345 per ton today. India Pakistan rice sellers kept their quotes
unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $376 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370
- $380 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per
ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350- $360 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$325- $335 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 $320 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $70 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on
Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at
around $275 - $285 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at
around $285 - $295 per ton.

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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap Prices Firm

as Grains Rally
Apr 20, 2016

The U.S. cash market was firmer today with offers from resellers increasing with the futures
market which got a lift from large gains in soybeans and wheat today as well as support from a
stronger Brazilian Real.
Analysts note that with farmers planting their crop well ahead of last year and the prior 5 year
average it increases the likelihood that this years crop will be substantially larger than last year
however if the bean rally continues we could see some marginal rice acreage shift to beans.
In the end, the market will need greater export demand to move old crop to make room for a larger new
crop although a few more sales to Iraq or Venezuela could help relieve that pressure.

Percentage of Defects in Grains Needed to

Determine Quality of Rice Under Italian
Laws
Italian laws specify that along with the values of overall yield and whole grains, the percentages
of different types of defects in the grains should be considered to determine the quality and the
value of each batch of paddy rice, according to local sources.
Laws specify several defects that should be considered. Also, the percentage of each defect must
be determined on the entire milled rice batch; then its percentage weight is specified for each 100
grams. The laws also specify a maximum tolerance rate for each defect.
The following defects are listed under the Italian laws: red striated grains, natural deformities,
varietal impurities, damaged grains, not completely gelatinized grains and pecked grains.
Local sources say under Italian laws, determining the presence of varietal impurities is easier,
because the mixtures of different varieties were forbidden, and rice can only be marketed with
the name of the variety on the package.

Domestic Rice Prices Fall on Weak Chinese

Demand
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Apr 19, 2016

Vietnam domestic prices, which increased earlier this month on higher demand from China and
concerns of drought cutting the output, have started to fall over the last two weeks, reports
Bloomberg citing local sources.
The price of IR50404 rice fell to around 6,700-6,800 dong per kilogram (around $304 - $308)
from around 7,200-7,300 dong per kilogram (around $327 - $331) two weeks ago. The price of
IR50404 paddy fell to around 4,500-4,600 dong per kilogram (around $204 - $209) from around
5,000-6,000 dong per kilogram (around $227 - $272) two weeks ago.
Traders say earlier price increases have prompted Chinese companies to cut purchases again
leading to a fall in prices.

Rice Area in Vietnam's Mekong Delta

Declined 16.7% Over Last One Year, Show
Satellite Reports
Apr 19, 2016

Reports by Europes Sentinel-1A satellite have shown that rice area in Vietnam's Mekong River
Delta (MRD) has declined about 276,000 hectares or about 16.7% between mid-March 2015 and
mid-March 2016 due to the impact of El Nino phenomenon, according to www.spacedaily.com
quoting an official from France's CESBIO institute.
According to the official, rice fields at different growth stages have been mapped by Sentinel-1A
nearly every 12 days since October 2014 and rice area data between mid-March 2015 and midMarch 2016 was compared to assess the impact of El Nino on MRD.
Since the end of 2015, dry conditions associated with El Nino have severely impacted South East
Asia, in particular in Vietnam's Mekong Delta. River water levels have reached their lowest
levels in last 90 years in many places, causing more severe and earlier salt water intrusion than
previous years.
The Sentinel-1 mission is helping to map and monitor rice production. It carries an advanced
radar that can see through all weather conditions - essential in cloud-prone South East Asia - and
is highly sensitive to changes in waterlogged ground such as rice paddies.
"The frequent observations by Sentinel-1 over the main rice production areas and its free access
make the mission an indispensable asset for rice monitoring in the region," said the official.

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Sentinel-1 is a two-satellite mission. The first satellite, Sentinel-1A, studies the rice areas for
every 12 . Its sister Sentinel-1B will be launched on 22 April, 2016 allowing for more frequent
updates on rice.

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap Chicago Rough Rice Futures Find Support
from Broad Based Rally across U.S. Grain
Prices
Apr 20, 2016

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 10 cents were cwt (about $2 per ton) higher
at $10.360 per cwt (about $228 per ton). The other grains finished the day sharply higher led by a
continued rally in soy; Soybeans closed about 3.3% higher at $9.9475 per bushel; wheat finished
about 2.8% higher at $4.9425 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.2% higher at $3.8950
per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded in a range Tuesday, amid a rise in oil prices, as declines in tech stocks
weighed after major earnings reports. U.S. crude oil futures for May delivery held more than
2.5% higher near $41 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. ET. After the settle Wednesday, the contract rolls
to June, which was trading near $42.25 a barrel. European stocks were more than 1% higher,
with the German DAX outperforming with gains of more than 2%. Germany's ZEW institute's
latest Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose for the second month in a row in April to 11.2
points. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rebounded with gains of more than 3.5%, while the Hang Seng
rose 1.3% and the Shanghai composite closed about 0.3% higher. In economic news, housing
starts fell a more-than-expected 8.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.09
million units, the lowest level since October, according to Reuters, citing the Commerce
Department. Building permits dropped 7.7% to a 1.09 million-unit rate last month, the lowest
level since March last year. In midday trade, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 16
points, or 0.09%, to 17,987. The S&P 500 declined 2 points, or 0.12%, to 2,091, with
information technology leading five sectors lower and energy the top advancer. The Nasdaq
composite declined 43 points, or 0.88%, to 4,916. Gold is seen trading about 1.6% higher, crude
oil is seen trading about 2.7% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.6% lower at
about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Monday, there were 2,204 contracts traded, up from 2,203 contracts traded on Thursday. Open
interest the number of contracts outstanding on Monday decreased by 227 contracts to
12,098.

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Vietnam Rice Exports Expected to Reach

Eight Year Low Due to Drought
Drought in Vietnam is threatening the country's rice production in turn affecting its ability to export rice
to its traditional importers such as the Philippines. According to an article in Bloomberg, Vietnam's rice
exports are expected to fall about 10% y/y to below 6 million tons reaching an eight-year low.

The article quoted the Head of the General Statistics Office (GSO) as saying that the rice output
from the Mekong Delta fell 6.2% y/y in the first quarter of the year.
While the Philippines is planning to import 500,000 tons of rice to ensure adequate supplies
during the lean season, experts are expressing concern if Vietnam can cater to the needs of its
traditional buyers.
Output in four other major rice producing countries , including Thailand, India, Pakistan and the
U.S., is also likely to decline this year due to drought. People in Indonesia and the Philippines
will go hungry if the Thais and Vietnamese dont produce enough rice, said the Director of the
Southeast Asia Program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
Water shortages in reservoirs on the Mekong river in Southern Vietnam are likely to cutwater
supplies for irrigating crops by about 50% this year, according to a UN report. Experts are
expressing concern that dams built by China, Vietnam and Laos on the river are depriving the
Mekong Delta region of the critical sediments needed to replenish soil. A study submitted to the
Mekong River Commission noted that eleven dams planned in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia
could result in fish and farming losses of $750 million in Vietnam and $450 million in
Cambodia.
Experts are suggesting the Vietnam government, which relied heavily on rice production all
these years, to encourage farmers to shift to more profitable crops.

Decide on Appropriate Time for 2016 Main

Rice Crop Planting Next Week
The government of Thailand will decide the appropriate time for this year's main rice crop
planting next week, according to Bangkok Post.The Permanent-Secretary of the Agriculture and
Cooperatives Ministry told reporters that he will meet with the representatives from state
agencies, including the Department of Royal Irrigation, the Department of Water Resources and
the Meteorological Department, under his Ministry to discuss the appropriate timing for the first
rice crop planting. He noted that the Ministry would reveal the decision to the farmers by the end
of this month.

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The meeting will assess when farmers can return to planting in-season rice crops after evaluating
the water situation in the country and the weather forecast on the rainy season. "We need that
information to fix the right period for farmers to begin their seasonal rice plantation. If we let
them know in advance, they will have more time to prepare themselves. We have no policy to
limit the scale of rice plantation during the rainy season," he said.
However, the official noted that the Ministry has not yet come up with likely measures to assist
farmers if they suffer from losses as they are expecting enough water for paddy fields during the
rainy season. Around 58 million rai (around 9.28 million hectares) of land will be planted with
rice during the rainy season.
He noted that the Ministry has decided to limit additional crops this year also, especially in the
Chao Phraya River basin, if there is not enough water for farming. He added that the Ministry
has decided on providing lucrative measures, including soft loans and occupation training, for
farmers to grow less water requiring crops.

Global Rice Quotes

April 19th, 2016
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 390-400

Vietnam 5% broken

365-375

India 5% broken

370-380

Pakistan 5% broken

345-355

Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

Cambodia 5% broken

445-455

U.S. 4% broken 430-440

Uruguay 5% broken

435-445

Argentina 5% broken

415-425

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken

365-375

Vietnam 25% broken

350-360

Pakistan 25% broken

310-320

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Cambodia 25% broken 425-435

India 25% broken

325-335

U.S. 15% broken (sacked)

470-480

380-390

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

NQ

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 335-345

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

480-490

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

490-510

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 665-675

Vietnam Jasmine

460-470

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

Cambodia Phka Mails

760-770

340-350

Vietnam 100% broken 335-345

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super

Pakistan 100% broken stxd

Cambodia A1 Super

285-295

345-355

India 100% broken stxd 275-285

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ

U.S. pet food 315-325

Brazil half grain NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

ORYZA News have been published with permission of ORYZA.com with thanks

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