Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
ISBN
81-7993-099-8
Published by
TERI Press
The Energy and Resources Institute
Darbari Seth Block
IHC Complex, Lodhi Road
New Delhi 110 003, India
Tel. 2468 2100 or 2468 2111
Fax 2468 2144 or 2468 2145
India +91 Delhi (0)11
E-mail teripress@teri.res.in
Web www.teriin.org
Contents
Preface
Acknowledgements
vii
Project team
ix
Tables
xi
Figures
xix
xxiii
Introduction
Methodology
29
Energy scenarios
139
149
193
iv
Contents
appendices
A1
207
A2
215
A3
221
A4
235
A5
Sankey diagrams
241
A6
Balance sheets
249
Bibliography
253
Preface
India has recorded impressive rates of economic growth in recent years, which provide
the basis for more ambitious achievements
in the future. However, a healthy rate of economic growth equalling or exceeding the
current rate of 8% per annum would require
major provision of infrastructure and enhanced supply of inputs such as energy. High
economic growth would create much larger
demand for energy and this would present
the country with a variety of choices in terms
of supply possibilities. Technology would be
an important element of future energy strategy for the country, because related to a
range of future demand and supply scenario
would be issues of technological choices
both on the supply and demand sides, which
need to be understood at this stage, if they
are to become an important part of Indias
energy solution in the future.
The Indian government aims to achieve
an economic growth rate of over 8% in the
next two decades in order to be able to meet
its development objectives. However, rapid
economic growth would also imply the need
for structural changes in the economy as well
as for induced shifts in the patterns of enduse demands. To meet the needs of the Indian populace in the most effective manner,
it is important to map out the energy demand and supply dynamics in the country.
This study estimates alternative trajectories
of energy requirements and examines the
likely fuel mix for the country under various
resource and technological constraints over
a 30-year time frame.
This study has been commissioned and
supported by the office of the PSA (Principal Scientific Advisor) to the Government of
India. The two-year study has drawn inputs
from several organizations and sectoral
experts across the country to gauge the likelihood of technological progress and availability of energy resources in the future.
The MARKAL model used in this study
is a widely used integrated energy system optimization framework that enables policymakers and researchers to examine the best
technological options for each stage of energy processing, conversion, and use. This
modelling framework was used to represent
a detailed technological database for the Indian energy sector with regard to energy resources (indigenous extraction, imports, and
conversion) as well as energy use across the
five major end-use sectors (agricultural,
commercial, residential, transport, and industrial).
vi
Preface
The report discusses the data, assumptions, and methodological framework used
to estimate useful energy requirements of
the country based on demographic and economic drivers. Technological assessments of
resources and energy conversion processes
have been described in the report. Economic
and technological scenarios have been developed within the integrated modelling framework to assess the best energy mix during the
modelling time frame. Based on the scenario
assessment, the report provides directions to
various stakeholders associated with the Indian energy sector including policy-makers,
technologists, and investors.
The report clearly points towards the
countrys increasing import dependence of
all fossil fuels. It also indicates that coal
would continue to play a key role in meeting
(R K Pachauri)
Director-General, T E R I
Acknowledgements
Project team
Principal investigator
Leena Srivastava
Core team
Advisors
Tables
Table 1.1
Table 1.2
Table 2.1
15
Table 2.2
17
Table 2.3
18
Table 2.4
18
Table 2.5
18
Table 2.6
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
Table 2.14
25
Table 2.15
Sectoral GDP at factor cost (in crore rupees) under 6.7% GDP
growth rate scenario
26
Table 2.7
Table 2.8
Table 2.9
Table 2.10
Table 2.11
Table 2.12
Table 2.13
xii
Tables
Table 2.16
26
26
Table 3.1
32
Table 3.2
33
Table 3.3
34
Table 3.4
35
Table 3.5
36
Table 3.6
38
Table 3.7
41
41
Table 3.9
43
Table 3.10
46
Table 3.11
47
Table 3.12
47
48
Table 2.17
Table 3.8
Table 3.13
Table 3.14
Table 3.15
49
50
50
51
51
53
Table 3.16
Table 3.17
Table 3.18
Table 3.19
Table 3.20
Tables
xiii
Table 3.21
53
Table 3.22
54
Table 3.23
55
Table 3.24
55
Table 3.25
56
Table 3.26
56
Table 3.27
56
Table 3.28
57
Table 3.29
57
Table 3.30
58
Table 3.31
60
Table 3.32
60
Table 3.33
61
Table 3.34
62
Table 3.35
63
Table 3.36
64
Table 3.37
65
Table 3.38
65
Table 3.39
66
Table 3.40
67
Table 3.41
67
Table 3.42
68
Table 3.43
68
Table 3.44
70
Table 3.45
71
Table 3.46
72
Table 3.47
73
Table 3.48
74
Table 3.49
74
Table 3.50
75
76
Table 3.51
xiv
Tables
Table 3.52
76
Table 3.53
79
Table 3.54
80
Table 3.55
80
Table 3.56
82
Table 3.57
83
Table 3.58
88
Table 3.59
88
Table 3.60
89
Table 3.61
90
Table 3.62
91
Table 3.63
Useful energy demand for various end uses at 6.7% GDP growth scenario
92
Table 3.64
92
92
93
94
Table 3.68
95
Table 3.69
95
Table 3.70
96
Table 3.71
Characterization of refrigerators
97
Table 3.72
97
Table 3.73
98
Table 3.74
98
Table 3.65
Table 3.66
Table 3.67
Table 3.75
100
Table 3.76
101
Table 3.77
102
Tables
xv
Table 3.78
102
Table 3.79
102
Table 3.80
103
Table 3.81
103
Table 3.82
104
Table 3.83
105
Table 3.84
108
Table 3.85
110
Table 3.86
110
Table 3.87
112
Table 3.88
114
Table 3.89
119
Table 3.90
119
Table 3.91
120
Table 3.92
121
Table 3.93
122
Table 3.94
122
Table 3.95
123
Table 3.96
124
Table 3.97
126
Table 3.98
128
Table 3.99
129
Table 3.100
131
Table 3.101
133
Table 3.102
134
Table 3.103
137
Table 4.1
144
Table 4.2
144
xvi
Tables
Table 4.3
144
Table 4.4
145
Table 4.5
146
Table 4.6
147
Table 5.1
150
Table 5.2
152
Table 5.3
153
153
155
155
157
157
159
160
161
166
171
172
176
Table 5.4
Table 5.5
Table 5.6
Table 5.7
Table 5.8
Table 5.9
Table 5.10
Table 5.11
Table 5.12
Table 5.13
Table 5.14
Table 5.15
Tables
Table 5.16
xvii
178
Table 5.17
179
Table 5.18
179
Table 5.19
180
Table 5.20
181
181
Table 5.22
185
Table 5.23
187
187
188
188
193
Table 6.1
201
Table 6.2
202
Table 6.3
203
Table 5.21
Table 5.24
Table 5.25
Table 5.26
Table 5.27
Figures
Figure 2.1
10
Figure 2.2
11
Figure 2.3
13
Figure 2.4
24
Figure 3.1
30
Figure 3.2
30
Figure 3.3
39
Figure 3.4
40
Figure 3.5
52
Figure 3.6
69
Figure 3.7
71
Figure 3.8
74
Figure 3.9
75
Figure 3.10 Time trend of fuel and electricity consumption in the residential sector
85
86
90
Figure 3.14 Number of households per 1000 in highest income class possessing
specified durable goods (urban)
91
101
104
Figure 3.17 Production and import of crude oil over the years
111
xx
Figures
125
129
Figure 5.1
150
Figure 5.2
151
Figure 5.3
151
152
153
Figure 5.4
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6
Figure 5.7
Figure 5.8
Figure 5.9
154
154
155
156
158
159
160
162
162
163
164
165
167
Figure 5.19
168
Figures
xxi
169
169
Figure 5.22 Comparison of average annual cost of coal across various scenarios
170
Figure 5.23 Production, import, and import dependency of petroleum products across
various scenarios in 2011
170
Figure 5.24 Production, import, and import dependency of petroleum products across
various scenarios in 2031
171
Figure 5.25 Average annual cost of oil and oil products across various scenarios
172
173
174
174
175
Figure 5.30 Average annual cost of natural gas across various scenarios
175
177
Figure 5.32 Generation capacity mix for 2011, 2021, and 2031 (centralized and
decentralized)
177
178
179
Figure 5.35 Sectoral electricity consumption for 2011, 2021, and 2031
180
Figure 5.36 Import dependency of coking coal across various scenarios for
2011 and 2031
181
182
182
183
Figure 5.40 Import of natural gas across various scenarios for 2011, 2021, and 2031
183
Figure 5.41 Sectoral consumption of petroleum products in 2011, 2021, and 2031
184
Figure 5.42 Trends in energy intensity across various scenarios from 2001 to 2031
185
186
xxii
Figures
Figure 5.44 Comparison of fuel mix in transport sector across scenarios for
2011, 2021, and 2031
189
191
192
Figure 5.47 Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions across various scenarios (200136) 193
AC
ADB
AHP
AIM
AMAI
ARIMA
ATF
Air conditioner
Asian Development Bank
Analytic Hierarchy Process
AsiaPacific Integrated Model
Alkali Manufacturers Association of India
Auto regressive integrated moving average
Aviation turbine fuel
BALCO
BAU
Bbl
BCM
BCPP
BEE
BFBOF
BHEL
BHH
BIODSL
bkWh
BOF
BPCL
bpkm
BPL
BRPL
BRUS
BT
btkm
Btu
CAGR
CBM
CCGT
CCPP
xxiv
CDH
CDU
CEA
CFL
CFRI
CGE
CHP
CI
cif
CII
CIMS
CMA
CMIE
CMPDIL
CNG
CPCL
CPPRI
CSE
DC
DGH
DMT
DRIEAF
DTC
EAF
EFF
EFOM-ENV
EIA
ENPEP
FAI
FAO
FBR
FGD
FICCI
fob
FYP
GCA
GDP
GDPA
GEF
GHGs
GIA
GJ
GJ/t
GLS
GoI
GSPCL
GW
GWh
HCV
HEV
HG
HHYB
HINDALCO
HP
HPCL
HSD
HYB
IEA
IGCC
IIASA
IMF
INDAL
IOCL
IPCC
IREP
ISLE
ISO
JV
kcal
kg
kgoe
km
KRL
kWh
LBNL
LCV
LEAP
LG
LNG
LP
LPG
l
m
m3
Gigajoules/tonne
Generalized lighting system
Government of India
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Ltd
Gigawatt
Gigawatt hour
Heavy commercial vehicle
Hybrid electric vehicles
High growth
High growth hybrid
Hindustan Aluminium Company Ltd
Horsepower
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd
High-speed diesel
Hybrid
International Energy Agency
Integrated gasification combined cycle
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
International Monetary Fund
Indian Aluminium Company Ltd
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Integrated Rural Energy Programme
Indian Society of Lighting Engineers
Indian Statistical Organization
Joint venture
Kilocalories
Kilogram
Kilogram of oil equivalent
Kilometres
Kochi Refineries Ltd
Kilowatt hour
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Light commercial vehicle
Long-range energy alternative planning
Low growth
Liquefied natural gas
Linear programming
Liquefied petroleum gas
Litres
Metres
Cubic metres
xxv
xxvi
MALCO
MARKAL
MESSAGE
Mha
MmBtu
MMSCMD
MMTPA
MNES
MoA
MoC
MoEF
MoF
MoP
MoPNG
MoSPI
MoWR
MPC
MPCE
MRPL
MSEB
MT
Mtoe
MTPA
MW
NALCO
NCA
NCAER
NELP
NIOC
NPCIL
NUC
ODC
OECD
OIDB
OIL
ONGC
OPC
PCRA
PFBG
PFI
PHWR
PJ
PLF
POLES
PPC
PSA
PSC
PSF
PSU
RBPL
REN
RES
RET
RH
RL
RLM
RM
RPL
RUM
SAIL
SCR
SHP
SIAM
SPV
SRTU
SSP
TEDDY
TERI
TPD
TPES
UBPL
UH
UL
ULM
ULSD
UM
UNPD
USC
USDoE
UUM
VCP
VCR
WBCSD
WEC
xxvii
Introduction
1.1
Background
1
This chapter provides an overview of
Indias energy sector and the challenges it
faces.
1.2
Unit
1970/71
1980/81
1990/91
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
MT
76.34
119.02
228.13
352.60
367.29
389.11
Crude oil
MT
6.82
10.51
33.02
32.03
33.04
33.38
Natural gas
BCM
1.45
2.36
18.00
29.71
31.40
31.95
Nuclear power
bkWh
2.42
3.00
6.14
19.48
19.39
17.78
Hydro power
bkWh
25.25
46.54
71.66
73.70
64.10
75.33
Wind power
bkWh
0.03
1.97
2.10
3.40
Introduction
1.4
Coal
India now ranks third amongst the coal producing countries in the world. Being the
most abundant fossil fuel in India till date, it
continues to be one of the most important
sources for meeting domestic energy needs.
It accounts for 55% of the countrys total
energy supplies. Power sector alone consumes 75% of the coal produced in the
country (MoC 2005).
Through sustained increase in investment, the production of coal has increased
from about 70 MT (million tonnes) in the
early 1970s to 382 MT in 2004/05 (MoC
2005). Despite this increase in production,
the existing demand exceeds the supply. India currently faces coal shortages of 23.96
MT. This shortage is likely to be met through
imports, mainly by the steel, power, and ce-
1.5
Power
India is becoming a major player in the international oil and gas industry and is willing to
take on the political and financial risks inherent in overseas investments.
The country currently imports 70% of its
oil and this share is expected to exceed by
90% by 2030. It began importing gas in
2004 and is projected to reach an import dependency of almost 40% in 2030. It has
adopted a four-pronged approach to energy
security, comprising import source diversification and acquisition of equity oil, strategic
oil stocks, increased domestic exploration
and production, and fuel diversification.
Indian oil and gas companies are encouraged to invest overseas and to build strong
relations with strategically important countries. India aims to produce 20 MT of equity
oil by 2010 and 60 MT by 2025 so that domestic consumption could reach 250 MT.
The latest estimates indicate that India
has about 0.4% of the worlds proven
reserves of crude oil. The production of
crude oil in the country has increased from
6.82 MT in 1970/71 to 33.38 MT in
2003/04 (MoPNG 2004b). The quantity of
crude oil imported increased from 11.66
MT during 1970/71 to 81 MT by 2003/04.
Besides, imports of other petroleum products increased from 1 MT to 7.3 MT during
the same period. The exports of petroleum
products went up from about 0.5 MT during
1970/71 to 14 MT by 2003/04. The refining
capacity, as on 1 April 2004, was 125.97
MTPA (million tonnes per annum). The
production of petroleum products increased
from 5.7 MT during 1970/71 to 110 MT in
2003/04.
Introduction
1.8
Future scenario
Demand (Mtoe)
Primary fuel
Unit
2006/07
2011/12
2006/07
2011/12
Coal
MT
460.50
620.00
190.00
254.93
Lignite
MT
57.79
81.54
15.51
22.02
Oil
MT
134.50
172.47
144.58
185.40
Natural gas
BCM
47.45
64.00
42.70
57.60
Hydro power
bkWh
148.08
215.66
12.73
18.54
Nuclear power
bkWh
23.15
54.74
6.04
14.16
Wind power
bkWh
4.00
11.62
0.35
1.00
411.91
553.68
Non-commercial energy
151.30
170.25
563.21
723.93
MT million tonnes; BCM billion cubic metres; bkWh billion kilowatt-hours; Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent
Source Planning Commission (2002)
Introduction
Box 1 Highlights of the proposals made under the mid-term appraisal of the Tenth Five Year
Plan across the energy sector
Improve regulation by
limiting the quasi-judicial role of regulators to tariff setting and dispute resolution, providing a system to make regulators accountable to the Parliament; and
developing a debt pool that would provide up to 20-year loan funding for energy projects, establishing and enforcing energy efficiency standards (the Bureau of Energy Efficiency and PCRA Petroleum Conservation Research Association must develop standards for energy-intensive industries
and appliances, and develop modalities for a system of incentives/penalties for compliance/noncompliance).
infrastructure. The problem is further aggravated by the different financial risks that
have been introduced by the transition to
competitive markets. Far-reaching reforms
are urgently needed to facilitate higher capital
flows in the energy sector.
2 to determine the energy technology policies and strategies that would lead to optimal use of energy resources;
3 to suggest a technology deployment strategy at the national level; and
4 to identify energy demand and supply, and
energy-technology related data gaps that
will strengthen such analyses in the future.
The above-mentioned objectives are to be
addressed by building a national-level, bottom-up, technology-driven, optimizationmodelling framework. The model is to be
run under various scenarios to capture uncertainties and bring out its implications on
the national energy scene.
Methodology
2.1
Approach
2
cates the minimized total system cost of the
energy sector under various scenarios. Also,
the main outputs provided by the model include information regarding the level of uptake of total energy resources, their
distribution across the consuming sectors,
choice of the technological options at the resource supply end, conversion and end-use
levels, investment levels during each fiveyear time period, an indication of capacity
addition, retirement of equipment and appliances, emission levels associated with resources, end-use technological options
adopted, and so on. The modelling time
frame is from 2001 to 2031, and the data input to the model is from 2001 to 2036. The
overall methodology is schematically depicted in Figure 2.1.
Given wide scope and vast nature of the
exercise, it was important to draw on the
knowledge base of a large and varied team of
experts so as to provide inputs of adequate
quality to the model. Several rounds of interactions with policy-makers and experts in
each sector were crucial to the development
of the modelling framework and the overall
analysis. The choice of the possible technological options (existing and futuristic) to be
included in the model, the development of
the RES (reference energy system), and the
technology characterization for each option
on the demand side as well as the supply side
evolved on the basis of an extensive litera-
10
Methodology
Figure 2.2
11
12
optimum activity levels of processes that satisfy the constraints at a minimum cost. Examples of constraints in the model include
availability of primary energy resources, production/use balances, electricity/heat peaking, availability of certain technologies, and
upper bounds on pollution emissions.
The elements of the MARKAL simulate
the flow of energy in various forms (energy
carriers), from the sources of supply (import, export, mining, and stockpiling)
through transformation systems (resource,
process, conversion, and demand technologies) to the devices that satisfy the end-use
demands. The basic structure of the
MARKAL model is shown in Figure 2.2.
The elements of an energy system in
MARKAL can be grouped as follows.
Energy
carrier The component that
encompasses all the energy forms in the
energy system.
End-use demands
The component that
comprises the demands for end-use
energy services in the economy.
Demand
technologies All devices that
consume energy carriers to meet energy
demands.
Conversion technologies
All load-dependent plants that generate electricity or
district heat or both.
Process
technologies All load-independent processes that convert one energy
carrier to another.
Resource
technologies The means by
which energy enters or leaves the energy
system, other than end-use consumption.
Emissions
The component that encompasses the environmental impacts of the
energy system.
Figure 2.3 depicts the MARKAL building blocks, also called the RES. The RES is a
Methodology
2.3.2
The MARKAL creates solutions by minimizing the present value of the total energy
system costs throughout the planning horizon, subject to specified constraints. As
such, it uses perfect foresight whereby all
decisions are made with full knowledge of
the future events. The MARKAL solutions
include the following.
An optimal resource/fuel/technology mix
A complete breakdown of the costs associated with each technology
convenient tool to map the flow of each energy resource over its entire fuel cycle. It
provides a blueprint for each sector in terms
of the resources that it uses/could use and
the end-use demands that are associated
with it. It provides a flow chart of the basic
building blocks of the overall model that can
then be easily mapped onto the actual model
without missing out on important components or links.
13
14
Methodology
Percentage
Crude
Crude
Total
Expectation of
population
change in
birth
death
fertility
life at birth
Census year
(in million)
population
rate
rate
rate
Male
Female
1951
361.1
13.3
4044
2832
5.36.0
3234
3234
1961
439.2
21.6
4648
2628
6.36.6
3739
3739
1971
548.2
24.8
4344
2122
6.46.6
4345
4244
1981
683.3
24.6
37
15
5.1
50
49
1991
846.6
23.9
35
13
4.3
54
53
2001
1027.0
21.3
29
10
3.7
59
60
15
16
The component method for population projections separately studies the drivers of the future size of the population,
such as fertility rate, mortality rate, and migration.
17
Methodology
UNPD
PFI
Mari Bhat
Total fertility
Assumed to fall to
rate
2.8
the
mortality levels
199195,
and
sumed to reach 67
extrapo-
Mortality rate
202126
201116,
were
intervals
in
2010
and
replacement
females by 2025
from
No large-scale inter-state
dia assumed to be
zero
urban distribution has also undergone structural changes over the same period. Its
population in rural areas has more than
doubled (~2.5 times) from 298 million during 1951 to 740 million in 2001, whereas
population in urban areas has increased
more than four times (~4.6 times) from 62
million to 287 million during the same time
18
Scenario
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
UNPD
Low variant
1031
1099
1156
1203
1242
1269
1282
1283
Medium variant
1033
1112
1188
1259
1323
1378
1424
1461
High variant
1034
1125
1220
1315
1405
1490
1573
1653
Optimistic
1026
1109
1191
1271
1345
Realistic
1025
1103
1173
1244
1320
1027
1092
1177
1264
1344
1413
1473
1526
Mari Bhat
PFI
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
Urban
28
29
31
33
35
37
42
45
Rural
72
71
69
67
65
62
58
56
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
Urban
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Rural
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
Methodology
19
20
Table 2.7 Number of rural households (in million) in various expenditure categories for
6.7% GDP growth
Rural
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
RBPL (<615)
88.5
84.5
68.2
49.0
27.3
10.0
2.1
0.2
RL (615775)
20.0
21.8
26.7
29.1
25.3
15.4
5.3
0.9
RLM (775950)
12.4
14.0
19.9
25.7
28.1
22.5
11.0
2.7
RM (9501200)
8.2
9.9
15.8
23.7
32.0
34.0
23.8
9.3
RUM (12002800)
5.8
7.0
13.7
26.0
49.2
84.3
117.3
118.0
RH (>2800)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
1.5
5.5
18.3
51.5
RBPL rural below poverty line; RL rural low; RLM rural lower middle; RM rural middle; RUM rural upper middle;
RH rural high; GDP gross domestic product
Note Figures in brackets represent monthly per capita consumption expenditure in rupees.
Table 2.8 Number of urban households (in million) in various expenditure categories for 6.7%
GDP growth
Urban
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
UBPL (<665)
15.6
18.1
13.3
8.0
3.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
UL (6651120)
14.5
19.2
22.5
23.1
18.1
8.9
2.1
0.1
ULM (11201500)
6.4
8.9
12.7
17.1
19.6
16.2
7.4
1.4
UM (15001925)
3.5
5.0
8.0
12.6
18.1
20.8
15.3
5.2
UUM (19254000)
3.4
4.8
8.3
14.9
27.8
49.2
71.3
70.7
UH (>4000)
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.0
2.3
6.7
19.7
52.1
UBPL urban below poverty line; UL urban low; ULM urban lower middle; UM urban middle; UUM urban upper
middle; UH urban high; GDP gross domestic product
Note Figures in brackets represent monthly per capita consumption expenditure in rupees.
Methodology
21
Table 2.9 Number of rural households (in million) in various expenditure categories for 8%
GDP growth rate
Rural
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
RBPL (<615)
88.50
84.46
60.56
32.66
11.77
2.40
0.18
0.00
RL (615775)
20.00
21.84
27.17
25.57
15.86
5.49
0.89
0.00
RLM (775950)
12.43
14.01
21.39
26.34
22.07
10.98
2.85
0.18
RM (9501200)
8.24
9.89
17.92
28.19
31.88
22.82
8.54
1.64
RUM (12002800)
5.81
7.00
17.20
40.06
76.67
110.68
110.67
68.52
RH (>2800)
0.14
0.14
0.29
1.23
5.23
19.22
54.80
112.38
RBPL rural below poverty line; RL rural low; RLM rural lower middle; RM rural middle; RUM rural upper middle;
RH rural high; GDP gross domestic product
Note Figures in brackets represent monthly per capita consumption expenditure in rupees.
Table 2.10 Number of urban households (in million) in various expenditure categories for 8%
GDP growth rate
Urban
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
UBPL (<665)
15.64
18.06
11.44
4.90
1.25
0.10
0.00
0.00
UL (6651120)
14.46
19.19
21.31
18.01
9.81
2.87
0.35
0.00
ULM (11201500)
6.36
8.89
13.07
16.32
14.62
7.68
1.85
0.13
UM (15001925)
3.53
5.01
8.76
13.87
17.03
13.41
5.44
0.91
UUM (19254000)
3.35
4.84
10.07
21.30
39.67
58.23
57.90
32.78
UH (>4000)
0.22
0.28
0.72
2.22
6.78
20.06
50.26
95.75
UBPL urban below poverty line; UL urban low; ULM urban lower middle; UM urban middle; UUM urban upper
middle; UH urban high; GDP gross domestic product
Note Figures in brackets represent monthly per capita consumption expenditure in rupees.
The ARIMA model is a univariate method in which the values of the variable under consideration are forecasted based
on the lagged/past values of the variable itself. Exponential Smoothing technique simplifies the time-series data of the
variable under consideration by reducing or cancelling the effect due to random variations in the data. This technique
can be used for forecasting by assigning weights to the past observations of the variable under consideration.
22
Table 2.11 Number of rural households (in million) in various expenditure categories for 10%
GDP growth rate
Rural
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
RBPL (<615)
88.50
84.46
54.92
21.26
4.09
0.34
0.00
0.00
RL (615775)
20.00
21.84
27.03
20.95
7.68
1.03
0.00
0.00
RLM (775950)
12.43
14.01
22.40
24.50
13.73
3.09
0.18
0.00
RM (9501200)
8.24
9.89
19.51
30.04
24.85
8.92
1.07
0.00
RUM (12002800)
5.81
7.00
20.38
54.69
98.74
104.85
55.87
11.88
RH (>2800)
0.14
0.14
0.29
2.62
14.39
53.37
120.81
170.85
RBPL rural below poverty line; RL rural low; RLM rural lower middle; RM rural middle; RUM rural upper middle;
RH rural high; GDP gross domestic product
Note Figures in brackets represent monthly per capita consumption expenditure in rupees.
Table 2.12 Number of urban households (in million) in various expenditure categories for
10% GDP growth rate
Urban
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
UBPL (<665)
15.64
18.06
10.00
2.83
0.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
UL (6651120)
14.46
19.19
20.39
13.56
4.37
0.51
0.00
0.00
ULM (11201500)
6.36
8.89
13.33
14.86
8.91
2.15
0.12
0.00
UM (15001925)
3.53
5.01
9.35
14.40
13.28
5.42
0.69
0.00
UUM (19254000)
3.35
4.84
11.37
27.12
47.34
49.73
24.32
4.15
UH (>4000)
0.22
0.28
0.92
3.83
14.89
44.52
90.67
125.42
UBPL urban below poverty line; UL urban low; ULM urban lower middle; UM urban middle; UUM urban upper
middle; UH urban high; GDP gross domestic product
Note Figures in brackets represent monthly per capita consumption expenditure in rupees.
However, these forecasts provide a shortterm view of the Indian economy, ranging
from one quarter to one year.
The Institute of Economic Growth, New
Delhi, has projected the GDP growth rate
for the Tenth Five Year Plan period (2002
07) using a macro-econometric model that
generates forecasts of the GDP growth trajectory at the aggregate as well as the
sectoral levels. The Institute has developed
Methodology
200207 is 6.8%. Similarly, with an investment rate of 32.9%, the growth rate forecast
is 7.4%. The pessimistic scenario, which assumes low rainfall and an investment rate of
28% of the GDP, forecasts a GDP growth of
about 5.4% for the economy.
The NCAER (National Council for Applied Economic Research) has also projected
the GDP growth rate based on a macroeconometric model consisting of simultaneous system of equations at an aggregate as
well as at a sectoral level. The NCAER has
forecast three alternative growth scenarios
using this model. In the realistic scenario, referred to as the most likely scenario,
the GDP growth rate is projected to increase
from 6.54% in 2004/05 to 7.82% in
2008/09. In the pessimistic and optimistic
scenarios, the GDP growth rate is forecast at
7.18% and 8%, respectively, for 2008/09.
23
provided in detail in Appendix 3. This particular study, however, was conducted with a
projected GDP growth rate of 8% considered in the BAU scenario that reflected government plans. The rationale for choosing a
GDP growth rate of 8% throughout the period 200436 is also explained in detail in
Appendix 3. Given that the Indian economy
is already in the last year of the Tenth Five
Year Plan, the Planning Commission is in
the process of readying the Eleventh Five
Year Plan (200712). The Government of
India is expected to target a growth rate of
10% for the Eleventh Five Year Plan period.
Hence, additionally, a 10% GDP scenario
has been considered to reflect an even higher
growth rate of the economy, as suggested by
the Office of the PSA (Principal Scientific
Advisor), to examine the impact of a twodigit (a higher rate of GDP growth relative
to the BAU) GDP growth on the future trajectories of energy consumption. Accordingly, three GDP growth rates have been
considered in this study: 8% (reflecting the
BAU scenario), 6.7% (representing a lowgrowth scenario), and 10% (representing a
high-growth scenario).
Table 2.13 presents the figures for
aggregate GDP under the three growth
scenarios.
Table 2.13 Projections of GDP at factor cost at 1993/94 prices (in crore rupees) under various GDP growth rate scenarios
GDP growth (%) 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6.7
1 267 945
1 676 029
2 240 639
3 061 793
4 258 687
6 004 800
8 551 719
1 267 945
1 802 078
2 647 845
3 890 552
5 716 498
8 399 411
12 341 490
10
1 267 945
1 904 059
3 066 507
4 938 640
7 953 729
12 809 559
20 629 924
24
Methodology
Sector
Agriculture
Reference
T E R I estimates
2020
2020
17
Industry
34
28
Services
60
55
25
According to the World Food Summit (1996), Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and
economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life (FAO 1996).
26
Table 2.15 Sectoral GDP at factor cost (in crore rupees) under 6.7% GDP growth rate scenario
Sector
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Total
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
333 274
367 050
450 368
560 308
698 425
864 691
1 068 965
(26%)
(22%)
(20%)
(18%)
(16%)
(14%)
(13%)
309 557
457 556
620 657
860 364
1 213 726
1 741 392
2 514 205
(24%)
(27%)
(28%)
(28%)
(28%)
(29%)
(29%)
625 114
851 423
1 169 614
1 641 121
2 346 537
3 398 717
4 968 549
(49%)
(51%)
(51%)
(54%)
(55%)
(57%)
(58%)
1 267 945
1 676 029
2 240 639
3 061 793
4 258 688
6 004 800
8 551 719
Table 2.16 Sectoral GDP at factor cost (in crore rupees) under 8% GDP growth rate scenario
Sector
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Agriculture
333 274
395 320
533 024
711 190
936 593
1 213 019
1 536 733
(26%)
(22%)
(20%)
(18%)
(16%)
(14%)
(13%)
309 557
491 106
732 865
1 093 635
1 632 004
2 435 397
3 634 279
(24%)
(27%)
(28%)
(28%)
(28%)
(29%)
(29%)
625 114
915 652
1 381 955
2 085 727
3 147 901
4 750 995
7 170 477
(49%)
(51%)
(51%)
(54%)
(55%)
(57%)
(58%)
1 267 945
1 802 078
2 647 845
3 890 552
5 716 498
8 399 411
12 341 490
Industry
Services
Total
Table 2.17 Sectoral GDP at factor cost (in crore rupees) under 10% GDP growth rate scenario
Sector
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Agriculture
333 274
358 212
383 575
410 734
477 224
768 574
1 237 795
(26%)
(19%)
(13%)
(8%)
(6%)
(6%)
(6%)
309 557
539 630
987 235
1 670 286
2 704 268
4 355 250
7 014 174
(24%)
(26%)
(29%)
(31%)
(34%)
(34%)
(34%)
625 114
1 006 218
1 695 697
2 857 620
4 772 237
7 685 736
12 377 954
(49%)
(53%)
(58%)
(58%)
(60%)
(60%)
(60%)
1 267 945
1 802 078
2 647 845
3 890 552
5 716 498
8 399 411
12 341 490
Industry
Services
Total
Methodology
27
economic indicators such as per-capita income (indicator of purchasing power), percentage share of population residing in
urban areas, population, and so on. In the
agriculture sector, demand is estimated for
land preparation and irrigation pumping. In
the residential sector, the demand is projected for lighting, space conditioning, cooking, and refrigeration separately for urban
and rural households to account for the differences in lifestyles and choice of fuel and
technology options. In the commercial sector, the demand is projected for cooking,
lighting, and space conditioning, using the
value added by the services sector as an
explanatory variable. The detailed methodology and estimates of energy demands
for each of the end-uses are presented in
Chapter 3.
3.1
3.1.1
Demand sectors
Agriculture sector
30
31
32
Y = Y0
exp (a + bt )
1 + exp (a + bt )
(3.1)
where,
Y is the CI;
Y0 is the asymptotic limit of CI;
a and b are the parameters to be estimated from the time series data of CI;
and
t denotes the time period.
The parameters are estimated by a linear
regression of the loglog form of Equation
3.2.
z = + t
(3.2)
where,
z = ln
( Y / Y0 )
1 (Y / Y0 )
a and b in Equation 3.1 are estimated values of and . The asymptotic limit of CI is
taken to be 3 in a year, and Z = 0.4478 +
0.0084t
GCA = NCA CI
(3.3)
where,
GCA is gross cropped area; and
NCA is net cropped area.
To validate the predictive accuracy of
the logistic equation, Theils Inequality
Cropping
Year
intensity
(million hectares)
2001
1.360
192.054
2006
1.391
196.472
2011
1.423
200.904
2016
1.454
205.345
2021
1.485
209.792
2026
1.517
214.240
2031
1.548
218.687
2036
1.580
223.127
(2.7644)
20617.42 (GIA)
(2.009)
(3.4)
(R2 = 0.97)
where, GDPA represents the gross domestic
product from agriculture.
The above regression equation for the
sample period 197198 shows a high R2
(0.97), indicating that the regressor used explains 99.7% of the variation in the number
of tractors. The t-statistics denotes that coefficients are significant.
The negative intercept indicates that the
number of tractors starts increasing only after a certain level of GDP is attained. In
other words, it implies that mechanization of
agriculture picked up only after a certain
level of growth was achieved by the agriculture sector.
3.1.1.1.1.3
33
6.7% GDP
8% GDP
10% GDP
2001
38.28
38.28
38.28
2006
43.88
47.06
44.87
2011
55.14
64.57
50.98
2016
69.34
86.75
57.41
2021
86.93
114.40
68.48
2026
108.17
147.93
105.50
2031
132.67
186.93
163.08
2036
158.48
223.13
223.12
34
3.1.1.1.1.4
3.1.1.1.1.5
Year
6% and 8% GDP
GCA
GIA
under
(million
irrigation
hectares) (%)
10% GDP
GIA
(million
hectares)
GCA
under
irrigation
(%)
2001
78.90
41.22
78.90
41.22
2006
83.34
42.55
88.93
45.26
2011
87.85
43.85
97.54
48.55
2016
92.42
45.11
106.46
51.84
2021
97.07
46.33
115.66
55.13
2026
101.79
47.51
125.16
58.42
2031
106.58
48.66
134.95
61.71
2036
110.46
49.34
145.03
65.00
(3.5)
35
Table 3.4 GIA under groundwater irrigation at various GDP growth rate scenarios
6% GDP
GIA under
groundwater
irrigation
(million
GIA under
groundwater
irrigation
8% GDP
GIA under
groundwater
irrigation
(million
GIA under
groundwater
irrigation
10% GDP
GIA under
groundwater
irrigation
(million
GIA under
groundwater
irrigation
Year
hectares)
(%)
hectares)
(%)
hectares)
(%)
2001
34.40
43.60
34.40
43.60
34.40
43.60
2006
36.33
43.60
38.40
46.08
40.84
46.08
2011
38.30
43.60
42.79
48.71
47.33
48.71
2016
40.29
43.60
47.59
51.49
54.57
51.49
2021
42.3
43.60
52.83
54.43
62.64
54.43
2026
44.38
43.60
58.56
57.73
71.61
57.73
2031
46.46
43.60
64.82
60.81
81.58
60.81
2036
48.16
43.60
71.01
64.28
92.62
64.28
36
3.1.1.1.1.6 Groundwater
requirement
Table 3.5 gives the crop-wise GCA and water consumption. The weighted average of
water consumption for GIA under various
crops was calculated to get the water consumption per hectare of GIA. The weighted
water requirement per hectare for agricul-
Water
requirement
consumption
3
Water
GCA
of GCA
consumption
(Mha)
irrigated
(MCM)
Crop
(mm)
Rice
300950
6250
45.16
53.9
152 133
Jowar
350650
5000
10.25
7.7
3946
Maize
400750
5750
6.42
22.9
8453
Wheat
300450
3750
27.49
87.2
89 892
5000
21.12
16.1
17 002
6800
6.22
1.6
677
12 500
4.22
92.0
48 530
Pulses
(m )
Percentage
Soyabean
500860
Sugar cane
10001500
Cotton
550950
7500
8.71
35.2
22 994
Tobacco
600
6000
0.43
46.0
1187
Groundnut
506
5060
24.28
25.2
30 960
Bajra
5000
8.9
8.3
3693
Gram
5000
6.15
29.1
8948
4350
1.29
23.3
1307
Sunflower
Total
350500
170.64
389 723
3
GCA gross cropped area; Mha million hectares; mm millimetres; m cubic metres; MCM million cubic
metres
Sources <http://www.iasri.res.in/agridata/db2002tb3_27.htm>; <http://www.ikisan.com/links/ap_irrigation.shtml>;
<www.Indiastat.com>; MoA 2004
Note Average figure is considered for water consumption.
For pulses, bajra, and gram, water consumption corresponding to Jowar is considered
3.1.1.1.1.7
Water head
(3.6)
37
38
Standard
Efficient
Standard
Efficient
Price (rupees)
10 000
14 600
8000
10 600
4.5
5.5
5.5
Diesel/electricity consumption
1.1 litres
0.6 litres
4.8
4.83.4
per hour
per hour
kWh
kWh
and it ploughs 0.31 ha in one hour by consuming 4.5 litres of fuel. It is assumed that
an efficient tractor ploughs 0.40 ha of land
in 1 hour by consuming 3 litres of fuel per
hour and is priced at 310 000 rupees.
3.1.2
Transport sector
39
40
Passenger kilometres is the product of the number of passengers carried and average distance travelled.
Tonne kilometres is the product of the tonnes of freight moved and average distance travelled.
41
Table 3.7 Comparison of the transport sector demand estimates by various agencies for the
year 1999
Estimated road traffic movement in 2000
Passenger traffic (billion
passenger kilometres)
tonne kilometres)
1880
1136
2152
1004
Study
30004000
6001000
23003800
8001030
24004000
540900
3000
800
Table 3.8 Comparison of the transport sector demand estimates by various agencies for the
year 2000
Estimates of
Indian
Demand estimates
Planning Commission
Roads Congress
2450
2087
870
1102
Taxis have been considered separately as they are used for carrying passengers on a commercial basis. The utilization rate for taxis is higher when compared to the utilization rates for cars and jeeps. This is due to the increased number of trips per day because of the commercial use of taxis.
42
3.1.2.1.2.1
The objective is to estimate the travel demand separately for each of the vehicle types
(on-road/in use4) mentioned above. The following equation is used to estimate the total
passenger or freight travel demand in the
year t by the vehicle type j.
PKm tj or TKmtj = Vtj O tj (Utj 365)
(3.7)
where, PKmtj is the passenger travel demand
by the vehicle type j in the year t (measured
in passenger kilometres). TKmtj is the freight
travel demand by the vehicle type j in the
year t (measured in tonne kilometres). Vtj is
Cars
43
Table 3.9 Assumptions on occupancy rate and utilization rate for cars
Assumptions on occupancy
Assumptions on utilization
Source
IEA (2004)
in 2000 declining to
1.5 persons
Kapoor (2002)
26 km/day in 2000/01
44
3.1.2.1.2.2
Taxis
(adjusted R 2 = 0.91)
where, UI = urbanization index
GDP = gross domestic product
Both the independent variables (GDP
and UI) are found to be statistically significant in explaining the equation as indicated
by values of the t-statistic (given in brackets)
associated with the coefficients of the model
estimated above. The adjusted R2 is as high
as 0.91, implying that 91% of the variation
in passenger sales can be explained by variations in the economic growth and the urbanization index.
The number of registered passenger taxis
for each year within the forecast period
200436 is obtained by inserting the projected values of GDP and UI. The number of
taxis in use/on-road is less than the total
number of registered taxis. Therefore, the
number of passenger cars in use is obtained
by deducting the number of taxis, considering a lifetime of eight years (same as that of
passenger cars).
The travel demand by taxis (measured in
passenger kilometres) is estimated using
Equation 3.7. The occupancy rate for taxis is
assumed to remain constant at three persons
per taxi throughout the projected period.
The effective distance travelled daily by a
taxi is assumed to increase from 60 km/day
in 2001 to 80 km/day in 2036. The rationale
behind assuming varying utilization rate lies
in the fact that with huge investments
pumped into the construction of roads and
highways, commercial passenger taxi services are being used for long-distance intercity travel as well.
3.1.2.1.2.3
Two-wheelers
45
significant in explaining the sales of twowheelers, as indicated by the values of the tstatistic (mentioned in brackets) associated
with the coefficients of the model estimated
above. Furthermore, 81% of the variation in
the two-wheeler sales can be explained by
variations in the per capita income and
UMIG, given that the adjusted R 2 is as high
as 0.81. Using Equation 3.12, the twowheeler sales are projected till 2036.
The number of registered two-wheelers
for each year within the forecast period
200436 is obtained by adding the forecast
annual sales figures to the number of registered two-wheelers. The number of twowheelers in use/on-road is less than the total
number of registered two-wheelers. Therefore, the number of two-wheelers in use is
obtained by deducting the number of twowheelers, considering lifetime of eight years.
The travel demand by two-wheelers
(measured in passenger kilometres) is estimated using Equation 3.7. The assumptions
on occupancy rate and utilization rate for
two-wheelers as reported in different
sources are as follows.
For the purpose of our analysis, the occupancy rate for a two-wheeler is assumed to
be constant at 1.2 persons per two-wheeler
throughout the projection period (200436).
The average annual utilization rate is assumed to be constant at 27.4 km per twowheeler per annum (Table 3.10).
(3.37)
(3.12)
(adjusted R2 = 0.81)
Both the independent variables (per
capita income and percentage of the middleincome group) are found to be statistically
3.1.2.1.2.4
Buses
46
Table 3.10 Assumptions on occupancy rate and utilization rate for two-wheelers
Assumptions on effective
Assumptions on occupancy
Source
by a two-wheeler
IEA (2004)
Kapoor (2002)
(88.9)
(3.13)
(adjusted R2 = 0.99)
where, POP = population
The only independent variable, that is,
population, is found to be statistically significant in explaining the number of buses as
indicated by values of the t-statistic (given in
brackets) associated with the coefficients of
the model. In order to measure the extent of
responsiveness to the population base of the
Indian economy, loglinear (double log)
specification of regression model is found
appropriate. In this case, the adjusted R2 is
as high as 0.99, implying that 99% of the
variation can be explained by variations in
the population growth rate.
The number of registered buses for the
period 200436 is obtained using Equation
6
The historical data on fleet utilization of buses operated by state road transport undertakings clearly shows that the fleet
utilization (%) lies in the range 90%95%. Thus, the maximum asymptotic limit is taken to be 100 for fleet utilization.
47
Table 3.11 Assumptions on occupancy rate and utilization rate for buses
Assumptions on occupancy
Assumptions on utilization
Source
IEA (2004)
Kapoor (2002)
by 400 km/year
projection period)
Bose and Chary (1993)
3.1.2.1.2.5
Three-wheelers
(3.15)
(adjusted R2 = 0.99)
where, POP = population
3-W = three-wheeler
46 355 km/year
48
Table 3.12 Mode-wise road passenger travel demand (in billion passenger kilometres) under 6.7% GDP (gross domestic product) growth scenario
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
102
139
195
346
574
1187
2307
Two-wheelers
255
341
332
413
524
678
891
1177
1594
2141
2790
3493
4234
4969
116
200
306
447
618
808
1003
1650
2274
2974
3996
5210
6908
9170
Mode
Buses
Three-wheelers
Total
Table 3.13 Mode-wise road passenger travel demand (in billion passenger kilometres)
under 8% GDP (gross domestic product) growth scenario
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
102
142
216
412
733
1550
3 117
Two-wheelers
255
344
354
466
616
823
1 107
1177
1594
2141
2790
3493
4234
4 969
116
200
306
447
618
808
1 003
1650
2280
3018
4114
5461
7416
10 196
Mode
Buses
Three-wheelers
Total
2031
Table 3.14 Mode-wise road passenger travel demand (in billion passenger kilometres)
under 10% GDP (gross domestic product) growth scenario
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
102
144
236
487
956
2167
4 760
Two-wheelers
255
351
394
558
799
1230
1 908
1177
1594
2141
2790
3493
4234
4 969
116
200
306
447
618
808
1 003
1650
2289
3077
4281
5866
8440
12 641
Mode
Buses
Three-wheelers
Total
2031
the period 1980 till 2002 is used for estimating and projecting the travel demand by twowheelers till 2036.
The variables most likely to influence the
growth in the number of HCVs and LCVs
plying on Indian roads are the values of the
output from the agriculture and industrial
sectors (measured by the GDP of agricul-
(19.61)
(3.16)
(adjusted R2 = 0.94)
LCVs = (792686) + 2.38 (GDPI + GDPA)
(6.42)
(9.14)
(3.17)
(adjusted R2 = 0.81)
where, GDPA = gross domestic product of
the agriculture sector
GDPI = gross domestic product of the
industrial sector
Both the independent variables (GDPA
and GDPI) are found to be statistically significant, as indicated by values of the t-statistic (given in brackets) associated with the
coefficients of the model estimated above. In
this case, the adjusted R2 is as high as 0.94
and 0.81 for the regression equations (Equations 3.16 and 3.17), estimated separately
for the HCVs and LCVs, respectively. This
implies that 94% and 81% of the variation in
number of HCVs and LCVs (respectively) can
49
Table 3.15 Mode-wise freight travel demand (in billion tonne kilometres); 6.7%
GDP (gross domestic product) growth scenario
Mode
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
HCV
531
842
1268
1926
2933
4478
6838
LCV
37
50
78
120
181
269
398
Total
568
892
1347
2046
3114
4747
7236
50
Table 3.16 Mode-wise freight travel demand (in billion tonne kilometres); 8%
GDP (gross domestic product) growth scenario
Mode
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
HCV
531
914
1523
2487
3996
6341
9 955
LCV
37
57
99
162
256
393
593
Total
568
970
1622
2649
4252
6734
10 548
Table 3.17 Mode-wise freight travel demand (in billion tonne kilometres); 10% GDP (gross
domestic product) growth scenario
Mode
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
HCV
531
1044
1858
3219
5615
10 085
17 948
LCV
37
66
124
214
365
632
1 078
Total
568
1111
1982
3433
5980
10 717
19 026
Passenger movement
(2.88)
2
(adjusted R = 0.98)
The independent variables (POP and
GDP) are found to be statistically significant
as indicated by values of the t-statistic (given
in brackets) associated with the coefficients
of the model estimated above in Equation
51
Table 3.18 Rail passenger transport demand (in billion passenger kilometres) under
alternative GDP (gross domestic product) growth scenarios
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6.7
491
608
770
1000
1329
1791
2424
491
637
864
1184
1634
2264
3125
10
491
673
986
1458
2174
3254
4853
for the period 1980 till 2003 is used for estimating and projecting the travel demand by
rail till 2036.
The variables that are most likely to influence the freight transport by rail are the values of outputs from the agriculture and
industrial sectors (measured by the GDP of
agriculture and industry). The linear specification of the regression model is found appropriate to estimate and project the freight
transport demand by rail.
Freight movement= (52.84) + 0.00045
(6.72)
(GDPI + GDPA)
(3.19)
(27.52)
(adjusted R2 = 0.97)
where,
GDPA = gross domestic product of the
agriculture sector
GDPI = gross domestic product of the
industrial sector
Table 3.19 Rail freight transport demand (in billion tonne kilometres) under alternative GDP
(gross domestic product) growth rates
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6.7
336
423
534
691
912
1223
1662
336
451
621
863
1206
1691
2375
10
336
456
668
987
1481
2354
3758
52
Two-wheelers
There are three different types of two-wheelers that have been considered in the model:
scooters, motorcycles, and mopeds. Figure
3.5 is the graphical representation of the category-wise sales of two-wheelers.
The figure indicates that the motorcycle
segment exhibits the highest growth rate
(37%) amongst the three categories of twowheelers. Motorcycles now dominate the
two-wheeler market that was dominated by
scooters and mopeds until the late 1990s.
At present, two-wheelers use petrol as
fuel and employ the spark-ignition system.
They can be classified further into those employing the two- and four-stroke technology.
The population of two-stroke engines is very
large. Two-stroke engines are widely used for
motorcycles, scooters, and mopeds, primarily because of their high specific power output, simple and compact design, lower
3.1.2.4.2
Three-wheelers
A wide variation exists in the Indian threewheeler market in terms of the current technological status as well as its progression
over the modelling time frame. Three-wheelers powered by petrol two-stroke engines occupy a major share in the Indian
three-wheeler market. The penetration of
three-wheelers powered by petrol fourstroke engine is lower as compared to its
two-stroke counterpart due to the resistance
offered
by
owners/operators
of
autorickshaws. This resistance is derived
from the notions that the maintenance
53
Two-wheeler
category
Technology
Motorcycle
Efficiency
Investment
Fixed operating
Start
(km/litre)/
cost*
and maintenance
year
(MJ/km)
(rupees)
cost (rupees/km)
2001
53.83
36 000
0.18
improved oxicat
using petrol as fuel
Scooters
Hydrogen IC engine
2031
0.56
42 000
2001
66.11
32 000
0.14
improved oxicat
using petrol as fuel
Mopeds
Hydrogen IC engine
2031
0.16
37 000
2001
78.51
22 000
2031
0.38
25 000
0.18
improved oxicat
using petrol as fuel
Hydrogen IC engine
Two-wheeler
category
Technology
Motorcycles
Investment
Fixed operating
Start
Efficiency
cost*
and maintenance
year
(km/litre)
(rupees)
cost (rupees/km)
2001
85.64
43 500
0.11
improved oxicat
using petrol as fuel
Scooters
Hydrogen IC engine
2031
0.36
50 000
2001
71.10
39 000
0.13
improved oxi-cat
using petrol as fuel
Mopeds
Hydrogen IC engine
2031
0.42
45 000
2001
94.21
34 000
2031
0.32
40 000
improved oxi-cat
using petrol as fuel
Hydrogen IC engine
0.12
54
3.1.2.4.3
Cars
Investment cost
maintenance cost
(km/litre)
(rupees)
(rupees/km)
Technology
Start year
Petrol two-stroke
2001
36.00
75 000
0.27
Petrol four-stroke
2001
41.00
100 000
0.22
CNG four-stroke
2001
95 000
0.22
Diesel four-stroke
2001
125 000
0.21
Battery operated
2026
115 000
0.22
Petrol hybrid
2021
120.00
125 000
0.30
CNG hybrid
2021
120.00
125 000
0.30
Hydrogen four-stroke
2031
51.00
114 000
8.45
1.00*
27.00
0.36*
HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) use the combination of engine of a conventional vehicle and electric motor powered by traction batteries and/or fuel cells. This combination helps in achieving both the energy and environment
goals. In HEV propulsion, energy is available from more than one source. The three configurations of HEVs are series
hybrid system, parallel hybrid system, and split hybrid system.
55
Diesel
Model
car (%)
car (%)
Fiat Siena
70
30
Fiat Uno
45
55
Mitsubishi Lancer
90
10
Ford Ikon
79
21
Mercedes Benz
45
55
GM Astra
85
15
Investment
maintenance cost
Technology
Start year
(km/litre)
cost (rupees)
(rupees/km)
2001
13.39
388 000
0.80
2031
12.25
387 000
1.43
2021
14.70
670 140
1.43
2021
16.06
671 140
0.80
Battery-operated car
2001
14.70*
249 500
0.64
CNG car
2001
13.37**
354 000
1.64
2001
10.85
646 000
0.80
2001
9.55
625 667
1.43
56
3.1.2.4.4
Buses
3.1.2.4.6
Locomotives
Life
Efficiency
Investment cost
Types of buses
technology
(years)
(km/litre)
(million rupees/bus)
Diesel bus
2001
15
4.63
2.48
CNG bus
2001
15
3.84*
3.66
2021
15
6.71
8.38
powered by diesel
* Efficiency expressed in km/kg
Types of
Start
good
year of
vehicles
HCV: diesel
2001
15
5.0
HCV: ULSD
2031
15
5.0
LCV: diesel
2001
15
8.5
LCV: ULSD
2031
15
8.5
Life
Efficiency
HCV heavy commercial vehicle; LCV light commercial vehicle; ULSD ultra-low sulphur diesel
3.27 Technological
characteriza-
Investment
efficiency
cost (million
Type
(Mtoe/btkm) rupees/btkm)
Diesel locomotive
0.0041
344
Electric locomotive
0.0021
450
Investment
efficiency
cost (million
Type
(Mtoe/bpkm) rupees/bpkm)
Diesel locomotive
0.0041
156
Electric locomotive
0.0021
132
57
generated. Biofuels have the following advantageous properties: high oil-bearing capacity, low cost, easy to develop and use,
environmentally safer and compatible, biodegradable, non-toxic, and free of sulphur
and aromatic compounds.
In this analysis, the maximum production
of bio-diesel is assessed based on the potential area for jatropha plantation, which is estimated at about 40.03 Mha. Based on the
seed yield of 2 tonnes/hectare, oil yield of
27%, and percentage area brought under the
plantation of jatropha over the modelling
time frame, Table 3.29 provides the estimates of bio-diesel production as used in
this study. Based on the discussion with experts, it has been assumed that 5% of the
potential area is likely to be brought under
jatropha plantation by 2011, 25% by 2021,
and 100% by 2036.
Various scenarios have been developed
for the transport sector, which represent different types of policy interventions, technical measures, and so on. A detailed
description of the transport sector scenarios
is given in Chapter 4. Assumptions for each
of the scenarios are detailed in Table 3.30.
Table 3.29 Estimates of bio-diesel
production
Year
Area under
Bio-diesel
plantation (%)
(million tonnes)
2006
2011
2.0
2016
10
3.9
2021
25
9.8
2026
70
27.5
2031
90
31.9
2036
100
35.4
58
Parameter
Business-as-usual
Year 2001
Year 2036
23%
23%
37%
17%
80%
51%
senger movement
High efficiency
ments in transport
23%
35%
37%
50%
80%
60%
senger movement
ments in transport
Bio-diesel
Hybrid
3.1.3
Industry sector
The Indian industrial sector is a major energy user, accounting for 48% of the commercial energy consumption. The increased
energy intensity in Indian industry is partly
due to investments in basic and energy8
According to the Central Statistical Organization, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, the industrial sector is subdivided into manufacturing, mining, and electricity.
59
(3.20)
(16.26)
(R2 = 0.92)
3.1.3.1.1
where, DCS,t and GDPI,t represent the demand of caustic soda (in thousand tonnes)
and GDP contributed by the industrial sector (at 1993/94 prices in crore rupees) in the
year t, respectively. The figure in parenthesis
is the value of t-statistics. Table 3.31 presents the projected demand of caustic soda
in the country.
60
Year
6.7%
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
growth
growth
growth
rate
rate
rate
2001/02
1 732
1 732
1 732
2006/07
2 209
2 346
2 462
2011/12
2 896
3 360
3 846
2016/17
3 909
4 873
6 108
2021/22
5 404
7 131
9 810
2026/27
7 615
10 500
15 863
2031/32
10 886
15 529
25 765
2036/37
15 722
23 032
41 961
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
Year
growth
growth
growth
2001
1 560
1560
1 560
2006
2 260
2040
2 160
2011
3 140
2450
2 790
2016
4 380
3000
3 620
2021
6 150
3750
4 720
2026
8 690
4760
6 200
2031
12 350
6150
8 200
2036
17 660
8010
10 900
(R2 = 0.90)
(3.22)
61
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
growth
growth
growth
Year
rate
rate
rate
2001
636
636
636
2006
888
950
1 002
2011
1179
1383
1 597
2016
1601
2019
2 556
2021
2216
2954
4 100
2026
3113
4328
6 586
2031
4422
6347
10 591
2036
6328
9312
17 040
where, DAL,t and GDPt, respectively, represent the demand of aluminium (in thousand
tonnes) and GDP of entire economy (at
1993/94 prices in crore rupees) in the year t.
The projected demand for aluminium is
given in Table 3.33 for 6.7%, 8%, and 10%
GDP growth rates.
62
(3.23)
Year
6.7%
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
growth
growth
growth
rate
rate
rate
2001
31 372
31 372
31 372
2006
44 768
48 630
51 913
2011
63 010
75 856
89 334
2016
89 540
115 861
149 601
2021
128 210
174 641
246 661
2026
184 624
261 008
402 977
2031
247 884
387 909
654 726
2036
386 756
574 369
1 060 171
(R2 = 0.97)
where, DS,t represents the demand for finished steel (in thousand tonnes) in the year t.
Table 3.34 presents the estimated demand
for finished steel in India.
(3.24)
(R 2 = 0.99)
where, DC,t represents the demand for cement (in MT) in the year t. Table 3.35 presents the projected demand for cement in
India under 6.7%, 8%, and 10% GDP
growth scenarios.
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
growth
growth
growth
Year
rate
rate
rate
2001
107
107
107
2006
148
167
184
2011
204
254
309
2016
286
382
509
2021
405
570
831
2026
579
846
1350
2031
833
1252
2186
2036
1203
1782
3532
63
64
Year
6.7%
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
growth
growth
growth
rate
rate
rate
2001
2 210
2 210
2 210
2006
2 520
2 680
2 800
2011
3 030
3 470
3 910
2016
3 730
4 530
5 500
2021
4 680
5 950
7 790
2026
5 990
7 870
11 100
2031
7 780
10 490
15 940
2036
10 220
14 050
23 010
(3.26)
(R2 = 0.95)
DP,t = 2102 + 68.5 (PHYV,t)
(18.60)
(3.27)
(R2 = 0.94)
where, DN,t and DP,t represent the demand of
nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizer, respectively, in thousand tonnes (in terms of
nutrient N and P2O5) in the year t and PHYV,t
production of high-yielding varieties crops
(in thousand tonnes).
Production of high-yielding variety crops
has been estimated using the GIA and GDP
(discussed in detail in the section on demand for agriculture sector). Table 3.37 presents the projected demand for fertilizers in
India.
65
10% GDP
growth rate
growth rate
6.7%
8%
10%
Year
P 2O 5
GDP
GDP
GDP
2001
10 690
3873
10 690
3 870
growth
growth
growth
2006
12 351
4090
14 010
4 670
Year
rate
rate
rate
2011
13 692
4555
16 570
5 550
2001
4 950
4 950
4 950
2016
15 051
5027
19 220
6 470
2006
6 929
7 615
8 198
2021
16 432
5506
21 950
7 420
2011
9 345
11 479
13 719
2026
17 833
5993
24 770
8 400
2016
12 823
16 949
22 238
2031
19 256
6487
27 680
9 410
2021
17 839
24 765
35 508
2036
20 409
6887
30 680
10 450
2026
25 096
36 034
56 363
2031
35 613
52 385
89 370
2036
50 836
76 185
141 820
P 2O 5
(3.28)
(R2 = 0.98)
where, D P,t and PGDPt represent demand for
paper and paperboard (in thousand tonnes)
and per capita GDP (at 1993/94 prices in
rupees) in the year t, respectively. Table 3.38
presents the projected demand for paper and
paperboard in India.
66
8%
10%
GDP
GDP
GDP
growth
growth
growth
Year
rate
rate
rate
2001
726
726
726
2006
1004
1066
1 169
2011
1389
1566
1 883
2016
1920
2302
3 033
2021
2656
3382
4 884
2026
3673
4969
7 866
2031
5080
7301
12 668
2036
7026
10 728
20 402
Membrane
56
65
69
71
37
34
31
29
<1
cell
Mercury
cell
Diaphragm
cell
67
pected to decrease in the near future. However, the current process (the membrane cell
process) is a mature technology that has very
little scope for further efficiency improvement. Moreover, due to the lack of domestic
production of membrane cell in the country,
India is entirely dependent on imported
technology of membrane cell. Therefore, all
new plants are coming with state-of-the-art
technology. A new technology called ODC
(oxygen depolarized cathodes) is currently
developed. In Europe, a new plant using the
ODC technology has been built in Germany
at Brunsbuttel (LBNL 2005). It is reported
that the ODC technology has a substantial
potential for saving electricity (440530
kWh/t) (LBNL 2005). In the present analysis, it is assumed that in India, ODC technology will be commercially available from
2016. Since this technology is still in the development phase and a reliable cost figure is
not available, the capital cost of the ODC
plant is assumed to be 10% higher than the
cost of the membrane-cell-based plant.
Since no new plants based on the mercury
cell technology are being built and cost data
is also not available, for modelling purpose,
the capital cost is taken to be the same as
that for the membrane-cell-based plant.
Table 3.41 presents the technological char-
Repair and
electricity
Capital cost
maintenance cost
consumption
(million rupees/
as a percentage
Process
(kWh/t)
MTPA)
of capital cost
Life (year)
Mercury cell
3300
41 000
2.5
10
Membrane cell
2848
41 000
2.5
10
ODC
2363
45 100
2.5
10
ODC oxygen depolarized cathodes; MTPA million tonnes per annum; kWh/t kilowatt-hour per tonne
68
Year of
Capacity
Total
(thousand tonnes
capacity
Company
commissioning
Process
per year)
(%)
Tata Chemicals
1948
Standard Solvay
875
33
1960
Standard Solvay
650
25
GHCL
1988
525
20
Nirma Ltd
1998
365
14
Tuticorin Alkalis
1982
Modified Solvay
115
DCW Ltd
1939
Standard Solvay
96
maintenance
consumption
Capital cost
cost as a
Fuel
Electricity
(million rupees/
percentage
Process
(GJ/t)
(kWh/t)
MTPA)
of capital cost
Life (year)
Solvay
15.93
282
19 800
2.5
10
Modified Solvay
14.48
257
19 800
2.5
10
9.31
607
24 800
2.5
10
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; kWh/t kilowatt-hour/tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum
69
calcination of aluminium hydrate. The extraction of aluminium involves the electrolysis of alumina at 950970 oC in electrolytic
cells (smelter). While the cathode in the electrolytic cells is made of carbon, two types of
anodes are used (i) Soderberg (or self-baking) and (ii) pre-baked. In India, about 76%
of the installed capacity is based on prebaked system while only 24% is based on the
Soderberg technology (TERI 2004).
Electricity cost forms about 40% of the
total production costs and hence, energy efficiency continues to be a major area of focus
for the aluminium industry. In India, the industry average for the electrical consumption in smelters has reduced from
18 00020 000 kWh/tonne of aluminium
produced in 1960s to 14 00017 000 kWh/
tonne of metal produced in 2000s (TERI
2005b).
70
Capital cost
Technology
Fuel (GJ)
(dollars/tonne)
Bayer process
32.00
583
1200
28.80
525
1500
Soderberg process
1.81
17 449
2900
Pre-baked process
3.03
15 613
3000
2.50
13 200
3300
Electricity (kWh)
nology used in India. Repair and maintenance cost is considered at 4% of the capital
cost of the plant (Hidalgo et al. 2005).
3.1.3.2.4
The four different steel manufacturing technologies existing in the country are: (a) BF
BOF (blast furnacebasic oxygen furnace),
(b) scrapEAF (scrapelectric arc furnace),
(c) DRIEAF (direct reduction ironEAF),
and (d) COREX. In scrapEAF, the process
scrap steel is used in place of iron ore. There
are eight integrated steel plants in India producing steel using the BFBOF process.
During 2001/02, of the total 31.37 MT of
steel produced in India, 12.98 MT was produced in those eight integrated steel plants.
Table 3.45 presents the process-wise breakup of steel production in India as well as the
technological characterization of the tech-
71
Table 3.45 Production and technological details of Indian steel industry during 2001/02
Production
Capital cost
Process
(million tonnes)
(dollars/tonne)
Fuel (GJ/t)
Electricity (kWh/t)
BFBOF
12.98
240
29.01
401
ScrapEAF
7.87
173
2.23
622
DRIEAF (coal-based)
5.66
214
26.63
453
DRIEAF (gas-based)
3.46
214
22.63
453
COREX*
1.40
583
28.81
Total
31.37
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; kWh/t kilowatt-hour per tonne; BFBOF blast furnacebasic oxygen furnace; EAF
electric arc furnace; DRI direct reduction iron
* In COREX plant, electricity requirement is met through internally generated electricity using COREX gas in
cogeneration plant.
Sources SAIL (2002); OECD (2001); CCME (2002); TERI estimates
72
Electricity
Retrofit cost
savings
saving
(million
Option
(GJ/t)
(GJ/t)
rupees/MTPA)
0.24
0.08
554.30
Preventative maintenance
0.43
0.02
0.50
0.69
0.00
529.70
0.33
0.00
254.60
0.04
0.00
53.80
0.36
0.00
275.00
0.11
0.01
7.00
0.05
0.00
14.40
0.29
0.00
20.40
0.00
0.12
29.20
0.26
0.00
28.30
0.02
0.00
2.30
0.01
0.00
13.90
Recuperative burners
0.61
0.00
101.10
0.06
0.00
45.50
0.12
0.00
30.60
0.00
0.01
7.90
0.17
0.01
71.90
Cogeneration
0.03
0.35
673.50
0.11
0.00
74.70
Hot charging
0.52
0.00
607.10
0.07
0.00
55.20
0.00
0.02
60.30
0.92
0.00
1020.40
0.03
0.00
32.50
0.37
0.00
104.40
0.00
0.10
199.00
Insulation of furnaces
0.14
0.00
404.90
0.09
0.00
25.50
Total
6.07
0.72
5308.40
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum; kg/thm kilogram/tonnes of hot metal;
BOF basic oxygen furnace; VSD variable speed drive
Sources LBNL (1999); TERI estimates
73
Electricity
Retrofit cost
savings
saving
(million rupees/
Option
(GJ/t)
(GJ/t)
MTPA)
Oxy-fuel burners
0.00
0.14
223
0.70
0.43
278
0.00
0.07
28
0.00
0.11
44
0.00
0.22
232
0.29
0.00
20
0.26
0.00
28
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.01
Recuperative burners
0.61
0.00
101
0.00
0.07
278
0.00
0.05
93
0.00
0.06
128
0.00
0.05
148
0.00
0.07
464
0.03
0.00
32
Insulation of furnaces
0.14
0.00
405
Total
0.67
1.28
2512
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum; VSD variable speed drive; DC direct current;
UHI ultra high power; EBT eccentric bottom tapping; EAF electric arc furnace
Sources LBNL (1999); TERI estimates
74
Parameter
Level
2001
2036
BAU
Share of BFBOF
Minimum
41
20
BAU
Share of scrapEAF
Maximum
24
10
High efficiency
Share of BFBOF
Minimum
41
80
High efficiency
Share of scrapEAF
Maximum
24
10
BAU business-as-usual; BF blast furnace; BOF basic oxygen furnace; EAF electric arc furnace
Three different cement manufacturing processes in the country are: (a) wet process, (b)
semi-dry process, and (c) dry
process. The contribution of cement production from the wet
and semi-dry processes has
been decreasing over the past
four decades. Until 1960, the
major share of cement capacity
was from the wet process
(94.4%); the semi-dry process
contributed 4.5%; and the dry
process only 1.1%. During
2003, the share of wet process
Source TERI (2004)
was only 3.7% whereas the dry
process accounted for 94.7% of the total installed capacity. Figure 3.8 presents the time
Table 3.49 Percentage distribution of
trend of process-wise cement production cacement production in the year 2002/03
pacity in India (TERI 2005). Table 3.49 presents the process-wise production share
Process
Total production (%)
during 2002/03 (CMA 2003).
Dry process
94.1
There are more than 13 different varieties
Wet process
1.3
of cement produced in India. Amongst them
Semi-dry process
0.2
the three main varieties are: OPC (Ordinary
Others
4.4
Portland Cement), PPC (Portland Pozzolana Cement), and PSC (Portland Slag
Source CMA (2003) (others are added in the dry
process in the model)
Cement) (Figure 3.9). These three varieties
OPC
PPC
PSC
Clinker
95
80
65
Fly ash
15
Slag
30
Gypsum
75
76
Specific
Capital
heat
power
cost (million
consumption
consumption
rupees/
(kcal/kg
(kWh/tonne
MTPA of
Life
Process
of clinker)
of cement)
cement)
(years)
Wet
1300
115
3300
10
900
110
3300
10
800
105
3300
20
750
88
3500
30
665
68
3800
50
Semi-dry
Dry process
kcal/kg kilocalories per kilogram; kWh/tonne kilowatt-hour per tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum
Sources TERI (2004); NCCBM (2003); TERI estimates
Table 3.52 Variety-wise percentage distribution of cement production in 2001 and 2036
Production (%)
Scenario
Parameter
Level
2001
2036
BAU
Share of OPC
Minimum
56
28
Share of PSC
Maximum
12
12
Share of PPC
Maximum
32
60
Share of OPC
Minimum
56
Share of PSC
Maximum
12
30
Share of PPC
Maximum
32
65
High efficiency
BAU business-as-usual; OPC Ordinary Portland Cement; PSC Portland Slag Cement; PPC Portland Pozzolana
Cement
3.1.3.2.5.1
options
Energy efficiency
77
78
3.1.3.2.6.1
options
Energy efficiency
79
(million rupees/
Life time
Technology
Thermal (GJ/t)
Electricity (kWh/t)
MTPA)
(year)
Existing
32.69
3500
280 000
30
Efficient
29.42
3150
280 000
30
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; kWh/t kilowatt-hour per tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum
Sources ARRPEEC (2003); CMIE (1996); Swaminathan and Rudramoorthy (2004); TERI (2004)
tha as feedstock, and natural gas has increasingly been used instead (Table 3.54) (T E R I
2005b).
In view of the largest share of urea and
SSP (single super phosphate) in the production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers, respectively, only the production of urea
and SSP is considered in this study. The
principle raw materials used for making urea
are ammonia and carbon dioxide. Production of ammonia is the highest energy-intensive process in fertilizer manufacturing. It
accounts for almost 80% of the energy consumption in the manufacturing processes of
a variety of final fertilizer products. Therefore, ammonia is considered as a key intermediate for determining the overall energy
efficiency of fertilizer production. Besides
Table 3.54 Installed capacity according to sources of feedstock (percentage) used for nitrogenous fertilizer production
Natural
Electric
Coke
Fuel
Ammonia
Period
Naphtha gas
power
oven gas
Lignite
Coal
oil
(external supply)
1965
43.5
14.0
30.3
12.2
1970
65.3
10.2
6.0
13.3
5.2
1975
73.2
13.7
3.1
7.3
2.7
1980
51.7
13.0
1.7
1.4
9.9
19.6
2.7
1985
42.6
24.0
1.4
1.1
7.7
19.8
3.4
1990
30.4
41.9
1.0
0.9
5.6
14.5
5.7
1995
27.4
47.6
1.4
5.0
13.5
5.1
1997
24.5
53.9
1.5
3.1
11.9
5.1
1998
28.5
50.0
1.4
2.9
11.2
6.0
1999
30.8
47.2
1.3
2.7
10.7
7.3
2000
29.9
45.4
1.3
2.6
10.3
10.5
80
air as the source of nitrogen, the ammoniamanufacturing process requires various raw
materials such as water, natural gas, naphtha, fuel oil, coal, and coke oven gas. Natural
gas is the best feedstock for ammonia production. Worldwide, about 83% of ammonia
production capacity is based on natural gas
(GoI 2003). However, in India, the choice of
feedstock was determined by the Government of India, depending on the availability
of resources (TERI 2005b). Feedstock
choice was not necessarily governed by the
energy efficiency consideration. In India,
during 2003/04, about 64% of ammonia
production was based on natural gas, 12%
on fuel oil and LSHS, and 24% on naphtha
(TERI 2005b).
Better feedstock and process technologies, together with improved operation and
maintenance practices, retrofitting, and so
on, have resulted in significant amount of
energy savings during ammonia production.
The average specific energy consumption for
ammonia production in India has declined
significantly from 13.7 Gcal (gigacalories)/
tonne in 1985/86 to 9.14 Gcal/tonne in
2003/04 (a remarkable reduction of 33%)
(TERI 2005b; Das 1997). The reported lowest specific energy consumption of an am-
Feedstock
Natural gas
5.61
4.94
261
235
Naphtha
6.04
5.46
261
235
Fuel oil
8.00
7.42
261
235
* Fuel used for both feedstock and heat production, specific ammonia requirement for urea production is taken
at 0.58 tonne (TERI 2004)
Gcal gigacalories; kWh kilowatt-hour
Source TERI (2004)
facility. A major portion of the power required for production is used in the
sulphuric acid plant. A small amount of
steam is also required for granulated SSP.
Since most of the SSP plants are located
along with the sulphuric acid plants, surplus
steam is always available. The average specific electricity requirement for SSP production is 34.9 kWh/tonne of SSP (Das 1997).
3.1.3.2.7.1
options
Energy efficiency
81
82
Capital cost
Thermal energy
Power consumption
(million rupees/
Life
Input material
(GJ/t of paper)
(kWh/t of paper)
MTPA)
(year)
Agri residue
27.3
1250
90 700
30
Wood
27.3
1450
93 700
30
Waste paper
11.3
725
45 400
30
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; kWh/t kilowatt-hour per tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum
83
Retrofit cost
Thermal
Power
(million
(GJ/t of
(kWh/t of
rupees/
paper)
paper)
MTPA)
Remark
3667
Applicable to all
150
Applicable to all
117
Applicable to all
183
Applicable to all
233
Applicable to all
Cogeneration
Blow heat recovery
3.32
0.40
Oxygen de-lignification
0.54
15
32
DC drive
Press section re-building/long
0.66
300
Applicable to all
120
500
Applicable to all
Drum chipper
11
100
0.83
3288
8.97
60
5.81
75
685
GJ/t gigajoules per tonne; kWh/t kilowatt-hour per tonne; MTPA million tonnes per annum; DC direct current
Source TERI (2004)
in general, did not keep up with the technological advancement in the other parts of the
world. A few large paper mills have implemented new technologies because of high
product quality, international competition,
mounting pressure from environmental
regulatory, rise in energy prices, and so on.
Most of the paper mills operating in India,
particularly the small ones, are very old, using outdated technology. In fact, most of the
Indian mills have imported old, used machinery from Europe. However, several paper mills are taking steps to restructure,
upscale, and replace old and outdated machinery with new ones. A remarkable gap
between specific energy consumption in India and developed countries indicates the
scope for efficiency improvement. Table 3.57
presents the suitable options for Indian paper mills (TERI 2005b).
For modelling purpose, agri-residue and
waste-paper-based mills are classified into
two categories (1) existing mills and (2) efficient mills, that include efficiency improvement options listed in Table 3.57. Retrofit
option is also considered for retiring capacity. For wood-based paper mills, the three
categories considered are: (1) existing mill,
(2) efficient-1 mill, with efficiency improvement options listed in Table 3.57, and (3)
84
efficient-2 mills, that incorporate all efficiency improvement measures. Retrofit option in wood-based mills is consider only
from existing to efficient-1 mill.
In view of the high cost of financing and
small-scale nature of waste paper and agriresidue-based paper mills in India, it is assumed that in a BAU scenario, all existing
waste-paper and agri-residue-based mills
will remain operational beyond their economic life, without any improvement in their
energy efficiency. Similarly, in case of woodbased paper mills, efficient-2 mills are not
allowed in the BAU scenario. In the EFF
scenario, all retrofit options are allowed, and
wood-based efficient-2 mills are also allowed
by 2011.
As mentioned earlier, the Government of
India is encouraging the use of agri-residue
for paper production. However, its use is restricted by localized availability. The maximum potential of pulp production from
agri-residue is estimated at 14 MT (CPPRI
2003) for 2001that translates into 9.8 MT
of paper production. During the same year,
production of agri-residue-based paper was
about 1.58 MT, which is only 16% of the
maximum potential. In the last decade, the
aggregated growth of wheat, paddy, and
sugar cane crops was about 2%. Residues of
these crops are used for paper production.
Therefore, in this study, it is assumed that
the potential will also increase by an average
annual growth rate of 2% during the modelling period. It is assumed that 35% of the
maximum potential of agri-residue-based
paper could be achieved by 2036 as compared to 16% in the year 2001. The percentages share of maximum potential translates
into 9% of the total paper production in
2036. It may be noted that the growth in paper demand is higher than the growth rate of
3.1.4
Residential sector
85
the other hand, out of evFigure 3.10 Time trend of fuel and electricity
ery 100 households in urconsumption in the residential sector
ban areas, 77 are pucca
structures, 20 semi-pucca,
and only 3 are kuchcha
structures. Plinth level of
the house, that is, the
height of ground floor of
the house from the land
on which the building is
constructed, is zero for
36% of the rural and 32%
of the urban households.
On an average, a rural
household occupies 38 m2
(square metre) of floor
area and an urban houseSource CEA (2004); MoPNG (2004)
hold occupies 37 m2. The
poorest segment, that is,
households in the lowest MPCE (monthly
leum gas) (propane), firewood, crop residue,
per capita consumption expenditure) class
dung, and other renewable sources such as
of less than 225 rupees in rural areas, occupy
solar energy.
2
31 m of floor area and those in urban slums,
Figure 3.10 indicates that commercial en29 m2. About 30% of the dwelling units in
ergy use has been growing quite rapidly in
rural and 4% in urban areas do not have bathe residential sector. During the period
sic facilities like drinking water, electricity
19902003, of the three commercial fuels,
for lighting, and a toilet. About 97% of the
consumption of LPG has grown at the anrural and 99% of the urban households get
nual rate of 11.26%. The average annual
drinking water within half a kilometre of
growth rate of electricity consumption has
their premises (MoSPI 2004).
been 8.25%. However, kerosene consumption has grown at the rate of 0.85% only.
Since 2000, kerosene consumption in the
3.1.4.1 End-use demands in the
residential sector has declined in absolute
terms. Kerosene use in the residential sector
residential sector
came down by 13.9% during 200003. This
Energy services make up a sizeable part of
high rate of consumption of LPG and electhe total household expenditure. The resitricity vis--vis kerosene explains the substidential sector in India is responsible for
tution of kerosene, a primary source of
13.3% of the total commercial energy use
energy, amongst the lower- and middle-in(TERI 2004). The energy sources utilized by
come groups.
the residential sector in India mainly include
Despite its impressive growth in the resielectricity, kerosene, LPG (liquefied petrodential sector, the fuel consumption is still
86
87
88
Urban
Class
(rupees)
(rupees)
Low
< 615
< 665
Middle
615950
6651925
High
> 950
> 1925
Table 3.59 Number of lighting points per household in various income classes in rural and
urban areas
Lamp
Lamp
Rural
type
wattage points
RL
GLS
60
RM
RH
Light
Lamp
Lamp
Light
Urban
type
wattage
points *
UL
GLS
60
GLS
60
TL
55
GLS
60
GLS
60
TL
55
GLS
60
GLS
60
GLS
60
TL
55
UM
TL
55
UH
TL
55
TL
55
GLS
60
TL
55
GLS
60
GLS
60
GLS
60
CFL
11
RL rural low; RM rural middle; RH rural high; UL urban low; UM urban middle; UH urban high;
GLS generalized lighting system; TL tube light; CFL compact fluorescent lamp
* These are total light points actually used at a time by a household.
89
(3.30)
where,
DLi = annual demand for lighting by
unelectrified households in the ith income
group
HH i = number of unelectrified households in the ith income group
H = hours of usage
(3.29)
where,
DLi = annual demand for lighting by electrified households in ith income group
HHi = number of electrified households
in the ith income group
Lpi = light points per household in the ith
income group
H = hours of usage
6.7% GDP
10% GDP
Electricity-based
Kerosene-based
Electricity-based
Kerosene-based
Electricity-based
Kerosene-based
Year
Rural
Rural
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
2001
36.0
33.8
2.8
0.7
36.0
33.8
2.8
0.7
36.0
33.8
2.8
0.7
2006
54.9
44.3
2.1
0.5
51.1
43.2
2.1
0.5
56.6
45.1
2.1
0.5
2011
77.1
57.6
1.4
0.3
69.9
55.1
1.4
0.3
80.4
59.6
1.4
0.3
2016
100.3
72.6
0.7
0.2
91.8
69.0
0.7
0.2
104.7
75.4
0.7
0.2
2021
120.9
89.0
0.0
0.0
112.9
84.7
0.0
0.0
124.3
91.9
0.0
0.0
2026
129.1
104.3
0.0
0.0
125.7
101.1
0.0
0.0
129.9
105.5
0.0
0.0
2031
133.4
118.0
0.0
0.0
132.6
117.0
0.0
0.0
133.4
118.2
0.0
0.0
2036
136.0
131.1
0.0
0.0
135.9
131.0
0.0
0.0
136.0
131.1
0.0
0.0
Urban
Urban
Urban
90
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
Rural
700.60
724.25
758.32
790.42
814.98
830.04
837.38
838.59
Urban
228.51
260.33
299.30
341.51
384.49
426.68
468.21
509.31
3.1.4.1.4
91
Useful energy demand for refrigeration is expected to increase at the rate of 13.03%
and 7.05%, respectively, during the same time period. TVs,
VCRs/VCPs, washing machines, and music systems
comprise the category others. The useful energy demand for this category is
expected to increase at the
rate of 11.1% in rural areas
and 7.7% in urban areas during 200136. The energy demand is likely to increase at a
relatively faster rate in rural
areas as a result of greater
reach of these appliances in
the rural market.
Useful energy demand for
space conditioning, refrigeration and others
under various GDP growth rate scenarios is
presented in Tables 3.63, 3.64, and 3.65.
Working
hours/
hours/
Device
day
Fan
10
60
225
1500
150
24
2400
365
AC
2100
100
Cooler
250
90
Washing machine
0.5
1000
200
TV
3.1
120
365
VCR/VCP
20
25
Music system
60
200
Geyser
Refrigerator
Watt
year
92
Table 3.63 Useful energy demand for various end uses (petajoules) at 6.7% GDP growth rate
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
21.66
46.44
104.94
234.27
426.41
697.41
1067.67
Space conditioning
Rural
10.38
Urban
23.51
35.70
59.40
114.56
248.89
510.40
952.27
1623.24
Refrigeration
Rural
8.08
23.51
59.46
134.82
264.67
391.58
500.60
586.43
Urban
41.77
63.30
95.46
143.17
210.85
292.20
376.11
452.40
Rural
2.76
6.21
13.32
27.26
50.75
73.53
93.57
109.77
Urban
7.66
11.02
16.23
24.78
38.97
58.92
81.41
102.59
Others
Table 3.64 Useful energy demand for various end uses (petajoules) at 8% GDP growth rate
Space conditioning
Refrigeration
Others
2001
2006
Rural
10.38
23.57
Urban
23.51
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
56.76
133.45
279.92
461.34
710.66
1069.70
37.50
69.22
145.42
310.48
576.15
984.40
1628.31
8.08
27.13
78.48
178.90
320.33
424.34
510.02
587.51
Urban
41.77
67.73
109.03
166.96
240.18
314.05
383.76
453.21
Rural
2.76
6.85
16.50
34.62
60.17
79.16
95.21
109.96
Urban
7.66
11.62
18.48
29.76
46.48
65.31
83.82
102.86
Rural
2011
Table 3.65 Useful energy demand for various end uses (petajoules) at 10% GDP growth rate
Space conditioning
Refrigeration
Others
2001
2006
Rural
10.38
25.07
Urban
23.51
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
65.81
155.01
302.30
470.23
711.32
1069.70
38.88
78.19
172.60
349.81
599.98
989.36
1628.31
8.08
30.06
95.55
212.40
347.54
432.62
510.49
587.51
Urban
41.77
71.11
120.42
186.29
258.65
322.24
385.08
453.21
Rural
2.76
7.35
19.30
40.17
64.75
80.58
95.29
109.96
Urban
7.66
12.08
20.49
34.23
51.58
67.80
84.25
102.86
Rural
2011
93
Data on penetration of geysers is not available with the NSSO (National Sample Survey Organization) for 1999/2000. Therefore,
it has been assumed that the penetration rate
of geysers is equal to that of air conditioners
and coolers. Moreover, apart from electricity, LPG, kerosene, and firewood are also
used for meeting the energy needs for heating water in the country. It has been assumed that 80% of the total households in
the country do not require hot water because
of hot/moderate climatic conditions or because of their preferences. Specifically, it can
be observed in rural areas that people do not
heat water for bathing. Instead, they rely on
fresh water at early morning hours. Therefore, households requiring hot water but not
having geysers have been assumed to depend
on fuels other than electricity. For estimating energy demand for lighting, households
have been divided into three categories in
rural and urban areas (Table 3.66).
It has been assumed that a household depending on firewood, on an average, requires
1 kg of wood for heating water per day. On
the other hand, for households using LPG, it
has been assumed that an LPG cylinder of
14.2 kg lasts roughly 30 days, that is, 0.5 kg
per day, and that 30% of the LPG is consumed for heating water, that is, 0.15 kg/day/
household. An electric rod has been assumed to be consuming 2 kW/h electricity.
Dw = HH N
(3.32)
where,
Dw = energy demand for water heating
HH = number of households using different fuels for lighting
N = the usage and fuel consumption
norms
Income
class
Firewood
rod
LPG
RL
100
RM
70
10
20
RH
60
20
20
UL
60
30
10
UM
20
20
60
UH
30
70
Lighting
94
6.7% GDP
3.1.4.2.1.2 Compact
fluorescent lamps
10% GDP
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
pieces were sold, 10% of which were manufactured by the organized sector. The demand for CFLs is growing at a steep rate of
35% per annum, with sales in 1998/99 crossing 6.5 million pieces.
The GLS lamps account for nearly 80%
of the lighting source market, and the rest is
claimed mainly by the tubes market. CFLs
have managed to gain a share of 1%2%.
This low share is due to high per unit price.
Table 3.68 gives the characteristics of electricity-based lighting devices.
Despite the developments, the domestic
market for lighting equipment remains sluggish and localized. Major share of the market
is limited to urban areas and even there,
power shortages, voltage fluctuations, and so
on, limit the usage of electricity-based lighting equipment. Moreover, India is yet to
achieve 100% electrification. Therefore, the
use of kerosene-based lighting devices becomes imperative in the country, particularly in the rural areas. Moreover, the cost
GLS
FTL
CFL
100 W
40 W TL +
(13 W
15 W
CFL + 3 W
Choke
Choke) 2
Characteristics
Lumen output
1360
2500
2 200
Lux available
100
100
100
20
240
1 360
1000
5000
10 000
Total assembly
cost (rupees)
Life (hours)
95
Hurricane
0.008
0.05
10.000
100.00
7.000
70.00
45.000
135.00
3.000
3.00
3.1.4.2.2
Cooking
96
Refrigerators
Efficiency (%)
Life (years)
1 200
60
20
150
40
250
45
Dung chulha
10
10
10
800
55
5 000
100
400
71
15
1 460
100
10
10 000
100
15
Biogas burner
Electric oven
Electric hot plate
Solar cooker
Crop residue chulha
Microwave oven
Efficient
Cost (rupees)
8000
15 000
Capacity (watt)
1570
1 115
Working hours/day
24
Working days/year
Life (years)
characteriza-
tion of fans
Efficient
Cost (rupees)
1000
1300
24
Capacity (watt)
60
55
365
365
Working hours/day
10
10
25
25
Working days/year
200
200
Life (years)
20
20
Fans
3.1.4.2.3.3
3.72 Technological
Standard
3.1.4.2.3.2
Table
97
Air conditioners
3.73 Technological
characteriza-
Efficient
Cost (rupees)
20 000
45 000
Capacity (watt)
2000
1300
Working hours/day
Working days/year
120
120
Life (years)
15
15
6510
2893
Investment cost
(million rupees/PJ)
PJ petajoules
98
3.1.4.2.3.5
Television
About 75 million households in India possess a television. The market for CTVs
(colour televisions) is expanding very fast.
Between 1996 and 1999, the market registered a growth rate of 28%. About 60% of
the market is organized whereas 40% is unorganized. About 98% of the products are
conventional, and flat-screen televisions
have negligible share of 2%. Urban areas
have a share of 60% in the CTVs market and
rural areas account for the remaining 40%.
However, in case of black and white television, the rural areas account for 75% of the
total market and the share of urban area is
25%.
3.1.5
Commercial sector
Table 3.74 Characterization of washing machines, televisions, VCRs/ VCPs, and music systems
Washing machine
Television
VCR/VCP
Music system
Cost (rupees)
7500
8000
2500
1500
Capacity (watt)
1000
120
20
60
Working hours/day
0.5
3.1
Working days/year
200
365
25
200
Life (years)
15
20
20
20
99
The services/tertiary sector, as defined by the Central Statistical Organization, consists of trade, hotels and restaurants, financing, insurance, real estate and business services, public administration, defence, and other services.
100
AR (1)
(24.7)
(3.32)
(Adjusted R2 = 0.98)
where, LPGC,t is the LPG consumption in
the commercial sector (in thousand tonnes)
in the year t and GDPSt is the GDP contributed by the services sector (in crore rupees
at 1993/94 prices) in the year t. The values in
the brackets give the t-statistic associated
with the coefficients. The loglog specification of the regression model is found appropriate as the coefficient associated with the
LPG consumption measures the income
elasticity of LPG consumption. The coefficient 0.58 being less than 1 implies that LPG
consumption is income-inelastic. This
means that LPG is a necessary fuel for cooking in the commercial sector. The AR (1)
term corrects for the auto correlated disturbances present in the data. The adjusted R2
is a measure of the goodness of fit of the regression equation. It is as high as 0.98 and
this implies that 98% of the variation in LPG
consumption can be explained by GDP generated by the services sector. The t-statistic
associated with the coefficients presented in
brackets above clearly shows that the variables are statistically significant in explaining LPG consumption.
However, due to other exogenous factors
such as constraints on the accessibility to the
small vendors, eateries in the rural and remote areas use kerosene as a fuel for cooking. Historical data on kerosene consumed
in all sectors is available but the quantities
Table
3.75 Technological
options
for
Efficiency (%)
LPG burner
60
48
Firewood-based stove
10
101
Table 3.76 Energy demand for cooking in commercial sector (in Mtoe)
GDP growth rate (%)
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6.7
65
81
100
125
157
198
250
65
83
107
139
180
234
302
10
65
84
114
155
212
290
397
(11.36)
(3.33)
(Adjusted R2 = 0.99)
The coefficient associated with
GDPS is 0.97. This implies that
1% rise in value added by the services sector would increase electricity demand by 0.97%, implying
that electricity demand is incomeinelastic. This further implies that
electricity is necessary for the
commercial sector in carrying out
its operations.
However, the bifurcation of
electricity consumption amongst
various electricity consuming activities such as lighting, space conditioning, and refrigeration is
based on electricity usage norms.
Based on the Presidents address
at the CPWD (Central Public
Works Department) in 2004, it has
102
been assumed that 60% of the total electricity is consumed for lighting, 32% for space
conditioning, and 8% for refrigeration in the
commercial sector. These shares are assumed to remain constant over the modelling time frame. The efficiency of
technologies for lighting in the commercial
sector is shown in Table 3.77.
Upper and lower bounds represent the
realistic levels of penetration of each of the
above technologies. It is assumed that 50%
Efficiency
Normalized to 1
system)
Tube light
1.818
3.125
lamp)
Table 3.78 Electricity demand for lighting in the commercial sector (in GWh)
GDP growth rate (%) 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
6.7
14 484
19 813
26 971
37 504
53 059
76 066
110 113
160 445
14 484
21 260
31 726
47 342
70 646
105 420
157 312
234 746
10
14 484
22 429
36 594
59 702
97 404
158 913
259 264
422 986
Efficiency
Fan (standard)
Normalized to 1
Fan (efficient)
Normalized to 1
103
Table 3.80 Electricity demand for space conditioning in the commercial sector (in GWh)
GDP growth rate (%) 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6.7
7725
10 567
14 384
20 002
28 298
40 569
7725
11 339
16 920
25 249
37 678
56 224
83 900
125 198
10
7725
11 962
19 517
31 841
51 949
84 753
138 274
225 593
58 727
2036
85 571
Table 3.81 Electricity demand for refrigeration in the commercial sector (in GWh)
GDP growth rate (%) 2001
2006
2011
2016
6.7
1931
2642
3596
5001
1931
2835
4230
10
1931
2991
4879
2021
2026
2031
2036
7 074
10 142
14 682
21 393
6312
9 419
14 056
20 975
31 299
7960
12 987
21 188
34 569
56 398
The appropriate regression model for estimating and projecting electricity demand
in the commercial sector is as follows.
Log(ELCo,t) = 0.74 Log(GDPSt) + 0.91
(32.58)
AR(1)
(12.5)
(3.34)
(Adjusted R2 = 0.98)
104
Table 3.82 Electricity demand projections for other services (in GWh)
GDP growth rate (%) 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
6.7
21 551
23 868
30 858
40 229
52 876
69 986
93 137
124 412
21 551
25 188
34 931
48 059
65 793
89 789
122 294
166 359
10
21 551
26 239
38 953
57 371
84 078
122 830
179 089
260 791
2026
2031
2036
2001/02
2036/37
27
50
299
550
25
50
MT million tonnes
emerged as an important source of fuel supply for states like Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan,
and Gujarat. Over the years, considerable
emphasis has been placed on the development of lignite for power generation.
The indigenous production of coking coal
in the country was 30 MT during 2001/02
and is expected to increase to 50 MT by
2036/37. The production of non-coking coal
was about 299 MT in 2001/02 and the maximum production is expected to be no more
than 550 MT in 2036/37. The values of indigenous production of different types of
coal are shown in Table 3.83.
105
106
107
108
Basin/area
CBM production
Energy equivalent
potential (million
Power
cubic metres/day)
generation (MW)
LNG (MTPA)
Cambay Basin
North Gujarat
30.0
5500
7.50
19.0
3500
4.75
12.0
2200
3.00
Jharia
3.5
650
1.00
East Bokaro
2.5
450
0.60
North Karanpura
6.0
1100
1.50
Rajmahal
4.5
800
1.20
Birbhum
6.0
1100
1.50
Singrauli
1.0
180
0.25
Sohagpur
4.0
720
1.00
Satpura
1.5
270
0.40
Ib River
5.0
900
1.25
Talcher
2.5
450
0.60
Wardha Valley
1.5
270
0.40
Godavari Valley
4.0
720
1.00
Cauvery Basin
2.5
450
0.60
105.5
19 260
26.55
Barmer Basin
South Rajasthan
Damodar Basin
Raniganj
Rajmahal Basin
Others
All India
CBM coal-bed methane; MW megawatts; LNG liquefied natural gas; MTPA million tonnes per annum
3.2.2
Hydrocarbons
Overview
109
110
Onshore
Year
OIL
ONGC
1994/95
2883
9130
1995/96
2882
1996/97
Private/JV
Total
ONGC
12 017
20 226
8971
26
11 879
2870
8504
38
1997/98
3094
8387
1998/99
3295
1999/2000
Private/JV
Total
Grand total
251
20 477
32 494
22 665
624
23 289
35 168
11 412
20 181
1307
21 488
32 900
42
11 523
19 863
2472
22 335
33 858
8100
77
11 472
18 286
2965
21 251
32 723
3283
7921
94
11 298
16 727
3924
20 651
31 949
2000/01
3286
8428
293
12 007
16 629
3788
20 417
32 424
2001/02
3183
8635
71
11 889
16 073
4070
20 143
32 032
2002/03
2950
8445
75
11 470
17 559
4013
21 572
33 042
2003/04
3002
8384
74
11 460
17 681
4240
21 921
33 381
2004/05
3196
8321
74
11 591
18 164
4226
22 390
33 981
OIL Oil India Ltd; ONGC Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd; JV joint venture; MT million tonnes
Source MoPNG (2005)
OIL
ONGC
Private/JV
1995/96
1433
20 875
331
22 639
1996/97
1496
21 281
479
23 256
1997/98
1670
23 050
1681
26 401
1998/99
1713
22 841
2874
27 428
1999/2000
1729
23 252
3465
28 446
2000/01
1861
24 020
3596
29 477
2001/02
1619
24 041
4054
29 714
2002/03
1744
24 244
5407
31 395
2003/04
1880
23 584
6491
31 955
2004/05
2007
22 985
6782
31 774
OIL Oil India Ltd; ONGC Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd;
JV joint venture; MCM million cubic metres
Source MoPNG (2005)
Total
major share, as per 2005 data. Private players continued to make their presence felt in
crude oil production, with a share of 18.87%
in 2004/05 in offshore production, up from
virtually nil some years back. However, their
share in onshore production is still less than
1%. Their share in natural gas production
has also gone up from 2% in 1996/97 to
21.34% in 2004/05, which is slightly higher
than the previous year and promises to go up
even further with several NELP fields yielding natural gas.
However, an important cause of concern
is that the domestic crude oil production in
the country has not kept pace with rising
demand. The R/P (reserves/production) ratio for crude oil has stagnated over the past
few years at 22 years. For gas, the R/P ratio is
marginally better at about 29 years. In 2004/
05, India imported 95.86 MT of crude oil
for a total refinery throughput of 127.368
111
112
NELP II
NELP III
NELP IV
NELP V
Offered
48
25
27
24
20
Awarded
25
23
23
20
18
18
14
14
16
10
Blocks
Awardees
PSU and PSU-led consortiums
Private players and consortiums
3.2.2.1.4
Strategic reserves
113
114
be funded by the OIDB (Oil Industry Development Board) through an initial grant.
Location of
Capacity
company
the refinery
(MTPA)
IOCL
Guwahati
1.00
IOCL
Barauni
6.00
IOCL
Koyali
13.70
IOCL
Haldia
6.00
IOCL
Mathura
8.00
IOCL
Digboi
0.65
IOCL
Panipat
6.00
HPCL
Mumbai
5.50
HPCL
Visakhapatnam
7.50
BPCL
Mumbai
6.90
CPCL
Manali
9.50
CPCL
Nagapattinam
1.00
KRL
Kochi
7.50
BRPL
Bongaigaon
2.35
NRL
Numaligarh
3.00
MRPL
Mangalore
9.69
Tatipaka
Andhra Pradesh
0.08
refinery
(ONGC)
RPL
Total
Jamnagar
33.00
127.37
commissioned in 2002. The refinery also installed in 2003 an Indmax Unit, a novel
technology developed by its R&D Centre for
upgrading heavy-end LPG, motor spirit,
and diesel.
115
facilities, the refinery could achieve a capacity of 9.5 MTPA in 1989. The refining capacity was further increased to 12.5 MTPA
with the commissioning of a 3 MTPA CDU
(Crude Distillation Unit) in September
1999. The current refining capacity (as of
2004/05) of this refinery is 13.70 MTPA. In
order to improve fuel quality, motor spirit
quality improvement facilities are being
planned to be installed.
116
117
118
3.2.2.3.1.15
Ltd (Assam)
Numaligarh Refinery
119
Table 3.89 Refining capacity, actual crude throughput, and capacity utilization during the
past five years
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
114.59
114.66
116.96
127.37
127.37
103.10
106.50
10.60
118.70
124.30
91.00
93.00
95.00
99.00
Table 3.90 New refineries planned in the Eleventh Five Year Plan
Capacity
Expenditure
Actual/anticipated
Name of refineries
(MTPA)
completion date
IOCL, Paradip
8312
March 2010
BPCL, Bina
6354
September 2009
HPCL, Bhatinda
9806
December 2006
IOCL Indian Oil Corporation Ltd; BPCL Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd; HPCL Hindustan Petroleum
Corporation Ltd; MTPA million tonnes per annum
120
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
Total domestic
84
123
125
125
125
25
65
95
125
135
IranPakistanIndia
30
90
90
90
MyanmarIndia
30
30
30
Total pipelines
30
120
120
120
25
95
215
245
255
109
218
340
370
380
Trans-national pipelines
Total imports
Total
MSCMD million standard cubic metre daily; LNG liquefied natural gas
3.2.2.3.5
Energy prices
121
Current
price
Current
deflated
price
to 2001
(dollar/
(dollar/
tonne)
tonne)
Import
60
50
Export
41
34
Domestic
35
29
Import
85
71
Export
59
49
Domestic
59
49
Domestic
25
21
Fuel
Non-coking
coal
Coking coal
Lignite
3.2.3
Power sector
Total installed capacity of power utilities increased from 5106 GW (gigawatts) in 1950
to 264 231 GW in 1991, registering an annual growth rate of 10.4% over the period.
Until 1980s, the growth rate in hydro power
and thermal power was comparable, but
during the 1980s, hydro power generation
increased at a rate of 4.4% compared to the
growth rate of 11.6% in the thermal power.
Owing to the decline in hydro power development and prevailing peak power deficits,
coal-fired thermal power units are often
used for meeting peak loads. Ten nuclear
power plants account for 2.5%2.7% of total
utility generation.
The poor performance of Indias existing
generating units has been a principal cause
of power shortages and unreliable power
122
Current
Current price
price
deflated to 2001
Fuel
c.i.f.
Unit
Crude oil
f.o.b.
dollars/bbl
60
50
c.i.f.
dollars/bbl
62
51
f.o.b.
dollars/tonne
531
443
c.i.f.
dollars/tonne
544
453
f.o.b.
dollars/tonne
627
523
c.i.f.
dollars/tonne
641
534
f.o.b.
dollars/tonne
567
472
c.i.f.
dollars/tonne
580
484
f.o.b.
dollars/tonne
567
472
c.i.f.
dollars/tonne
580
484
f.o.b.
dollars/tonne
544
453
c.i.f.
dollars/tonne
557
464
f.o.b.
dollars/tonne
554
462
c.i.f.
dollars/tonne
873
728
HSD
Gasoline
Kerosene
ATF
Naphtha
LPG
HSD high speed diesel; ATF aviation turbine fuel; LPG liquefied petroleum gas;
f.o.b. freight on-board; c.i.f. cost insurance freight; bbl barrel
Current price
price
deflated to
(dollars/
2001 (dollars/
MMBTU)
MMBTU)
3.210
2.68
3.515
2.93
4.100
3.42
by pipelines
LNG import by terminal
123
Table 3.95 Power generation steam cycles with different unit ratings
Turbine heat rate
Cycle parameters
(kcal/kWh)
rate (kcal/kWh)
70
2200
2588
120/130
1980
2330
210
2318
1970
2314
1945
2288
500
*Considering boiler efficiency as 85%. For net heat rate, auxiliary power consumption also to be considered.
MW megawatts; ata atmospheres absolute; BFP back focal plane; kcal kilocalories; kWh kilowatt-hours
124
Table 3.96 Contemporary gas turbines using natural gas as fuelperformance at ISO
conditions
ISO rating
Heat rate
Efficiency
Exhaust
GT inlet
CCPP
flow
temperature
efficiency
Model
(MW)
(kcal/kWh)
(%)
(kg/s)
( C)
(%)
V94.2
163.3
2496
34.5
526.0
1060
52.5
PG9171(E)
126.1
2545
33.8
418.0
1124
52.7
GT13E2
172.2
2363
36.3
532.0
1150
53.1
M701
144.1
2472
34.8
440.8
1120
51.4
3.2.3.1.1
Advanced technologies
3.2.3.1.1.2
cycle
Supercritical steam
125
126
3.2.3.1.1.3
turbines
With the increase in the cost of premium fuels like natural gas, naphtha, and LNG, there
is an ever-increasing pressure on gas turbine
designers and manufacturers of higher efficiency combined cycle systems to produce
power at competitive rates compared to
coal-fired plants. The improved efficiency
obviously leads to reduction in emissions of
SOx, NO x, and CO2 also.
Introduction of advance class turbines
with inlet temperature in the range 1250
1350 oC has led to combined cycle power
plant efficiency of about 58% on LHV (low
heating value) basis and under ISO conditions (Table 3.97). Corresponding value in
Indian conditions is in the range 55%
56.5%. A number of plants are in operation
throughout the world. However, there are
only a few in India (for example, 2 9 FA at
Dabhol and 3 6 FA at Kovilkallapal,
Peringulam, and Dhuvaram). Advance class
gas turbines with dry low NOx combustion
3.2.3.1.1.4 Coal-based
combined cycle systems
The approach towards further improvement
in efficiency of, or reduction of pollution
from, coal-based power generation leads to
two thermodynamic cycles including gas
turbine in topping cycle and a steam turbine
in a bottoming cycle, and hence is called
combined cycle. However, gas turbines need
clean fuel gas or clean flue gas. Therefore,
use of coal calls for its conversion to clean
combustion products or coal gas at high
pressure. Two technologies have been developed: (a) PFBC and (b) IGCC.
Heat rate
Efficiency
flow
CCPP
GT inlet/exhaust
o
efficiency
Model
(MW)
(kcal/kWh)
(%)
(kg/s)
temperature ( C)
(%)
V94.3A
278.0
2239
38.4
670.0
1300/582
57.5
9FA
255.6
2331
36.9
641.0
1300/602
57.1
GT26
281.0
2245
38.3
631.7
1280/615
57.8
M701F
270.3
2250
38.2
650.8
1350/586
57.3
M701G
334.0
2180
39.4
736.8
1400/587
58.7
3.2.3.1.1.4.2 Integrated
gasificaiton combined cycle
Coal gas can be produced by reacting coal
with air/steam or oxygen/steam; the former
reaction produces low CV (calorific value)
gas whereas the latter reaction produces medium CV gas. For combined cycle operation,
127
it is economical to adopt pressurized gasification. The hot raw gas from the gasifier is
cooled by generating steam through HRSG
(heat recovery steam generation). This steam
is integrated in the combined cycle with the
steam produced from HRSG downstream of
the gas turbine. Part of the steam produced
is used in the gasifier. Thus, the cycle is
called IGCC.
Typically, the IGCC efficiency is the
product of the gasifier efficiency (achievable
90%) and the combined cycle efficiency
(55% with contemporary gas turbines, as
explained in Section 4.3), giving a value of
41%42% compared to 40% achievable
through USC steam cycle. This will proportionately reduce CO2 emission. The SO x
emission can be brought down to 40115
mg/Nm3, as the sulphur is removed in the
gasification process itself. The NOx emission
has also been reported to reduce to levels
below 125 mg/Nm3. A number of commercial
plants using coal or refinery residues as fuel
have come up all over the world (Table 3.98).
The main barriers to widespread adoption of IGCC technologies are: (a) high capital cost compared to pulverized coal plant
and (b) demonstration of high availability, at
least equal to existing PC plants. However,
the costs are coming down. A recent joint
study by Texaco, General Electric, and
Praxair has shown that for a 550-MW power
block, with the introduction of 9H gas turbine technology with firing temperature in
the range 14001450 0C, the efficiency,
capital cost, and cost of generation have significantly improved (Figure 3.19) for the period 19942000.
In India, pioneering work has been done
on coal-based IGCC by BHEL on a 6.2MWe pilot plant at Trichy, using both pressurized moving bed gasifier and PFBG.
128
Process
Start-up
Output
Feed
Power block
GSK (Japan)
Texaco
2001
540 MW
VB Tar
2xGE 9EC
BGL
2000
400 MW
Coal/RdF
2xGE 9FA
Shell
1997
120 MW + H 2
Heavy oil
2xGE 6B
KRW
1998
100 MW
Coal
GE 106 F
Elcogas (Spain)
Pernflow
1998
300 MW
Coal/coke
KWU V94.3
ISE (Italy)
Texaco
2000
520 MW
Asphalt
2xKWU V94.3
SARAS (Italy)
Texaco
2000
550 MW
VB Tar
3xGE 109E
Star (Delaware)
Texaco
1999
240 MW
Petcoke
2xGE 6FA
API (Italy)
Texaco
2000
275 MW
VB Tar
ABB 13 E2
Texaco
1984
120 MW
Coal
GE 107E
Destec
1986
220 MW
Coal
GE 107E
Shell
1993
250 MW
Coal
KWU V94.2
Texaco
1996
260 MW
Coal
GE 107 FA
Texaco-Eldorado (Kansas)
Texaco
1996
40 MW
Petcoke
GE 6B
Destec
1996
262 MW
Coal
GE 7FA
Schwarze/Pumpe (Germany)
Noell
1996
40 MW
Coal/oil
GE 6B
BGL
1999
120 MW
Coal/sldg
GE 106FA
Total (France)
Texaco
2004
365 MW
Ref. residue
ABB
EXXON (USA)
Texaco
1999
40 MW
Petcoke
GE 6B
EXXON (Singapore)
Texaco
2000
180 MW
Ref. residue
2xGE 6FA
NPRC (Japan)
Texaco
2003
340 MW
Asphalt
Repsol (Spain)
Texaco
2004
824 MW
Ref. residue
CITAGO (USA)
Texaco
2004
350 MW
Petcoke
129
natural gas for power generation is picking up, the advantages being no particulate
matter pollution and reduced
CO2 emission per kWh of
power generated. The present
environment policy defines
primarily for particulate matter control, but gives no strict
conformance standards for
other gaseous pollutants like
SOx, NO x, and CO2 (except a
gazette notification of the
Ministry of Environment and
Forests
stipulating
NOx
emissions for gas turbines).
The higher chimney height
may disperse SOx and NOx in
low
concentrations
over
larger area, but does not reduce/eliminate their effects.
Besides, the international
protocols in future may require limiting
emissions of CO2 and NOx, the greenhouse
gases that lead to global warming.
The integrated policy for technology and
environment for thermal power generation
should encompass the following action
plans.
PC plant
Entrained
Fluidized
Moving
Without
With
bed
bed
bed
FGD
FGD
564.40
496.20
577.20
585.70
549.00
2.17
1.33
1.36
1.00
1.22
1.18
1.32
1.00
1.17
1.94
MW megawatts; IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle; PC pulverized coal; FGD flue gas
desulphurization
130
131
Table 3.100 Upper bound on installed capacity of large hydro-based power generation
(in GW)
2001/ 02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
2036/ 37
24.9
37.0
60.54
84.08
107.63
131.17
150.0
150.0
132
133
able energy technologies) are environmentally sustainable and have a vast potential
that can be exploited for energy generation
in the future.
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
2036/37
BAU
2.8
3.31
6.78
13.98
21.18
21.18
21.18
21.18
NUC
2.8
3.31
6.78
13.98
21.18
45.5
70
70
134
Source/technology
Unit
Biogas plants
Million
Biomass-based power
MW
Million
2
Potential/
Potential
availability
exploited
12
3.22
19 500
384.00
120
33.86
20
1.74
Solar energy
MW/km
Small hydro
MW
15 000
1398.00
Wind energy
MW
45 000
1367.00
MW
1700
16.20
3.2.3.4.3
Small hydel
10
100 hectares = 1 km 2.
135
3.2.3.5.1
Fuelwood
136
3.2.3.5.2
Dung
Annual
operation and
Capital
maintenance
cost (million
cost (million
Life
Efficiency
Technology
factor
Plant characteristics
rupees /GW)
rupees/GW)
(years)
(%)
0.58
Base load
Centralized
Sunk costs
988
10
22.7
Availability
0.58
Base load
Centralized
Sunk costs
988
30
29.5
0.85
Base load
Centralized
39 547
988
30
32.3
0.85
Base load
Centralized
15 000
988
30
30.0
0.85
Base load
Centralized
12 500
850
30
32.2
CFBC
0.85
Base load
Centralized
45 653
1141
30
39.0
0.85
Base load
Centralized
52 753
1141
30
46.0
IGCC (coal)
0.85
Base load
Centralized
52 753
1141
30
44.0
Coal supercritical
0.85
Base load
Centralized
42 600
1065
30
37.7
0.85
Base load
Centralized
45 653
1141
30
43.0
Coal ultra-supercritical
0.85
Base load
Centralized
51 120
1331
30
44.0
0.58
Base load
Centralized
40 000
988
30
29.5
0.20
Base load
Decentralized
27 000
712.5
10
25.0
28.0
0.90
Standard
Centralized
Sunk costs
520
20
0.90
Base load
Centralized
Sunk costs
399
25
44.1
0.90
Standard
Centralized
15 975
240
20
39.0
NGCC (New)
0.90
Base load
Centralized
22 000
330
25
53.8
0.90
Base load
Centralized
27000
405
25
60.0
Fixed capacity
Standard
Centralized
40 000
600
50
32.3
Fixed capacity
Standard
Centralized
90 000
1350
40
32.3
0.90
Base load
Centralized
60 000
1500
25
21.4
0.90
Base load
Centralized
78 750
1969
25
17.0
0.20
Standard
Decentralized
27 000
713
15
21.7
0.29
Standard
Decentralized
300 000
4500
25
0.29
Standard
Decentralized
200 000
1000
25
Fixed capacity
Standard
Centralized
250 000
1250
25
Wind turbines
Fixed capacity
Standard
Centralized
38 000
570
20
kW kilowatt
137
CFBC circulating fluidized bed combustion; IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle; NGCC natural gas combined cycle; Rs/GW rupees/gigawatts;
Energy scenarios
4.1
Introduction
4
extending over 100 years into the future.
These long time periods are needed to allow
transition to sustainable development paths.
140
Energy scenarios
4.3.1
141
Economy-wide scenarios
142
Thus, although a substantial improvement over the current situation, this scenario
falls short of achieving a transition towards
sustainable development.
Energy scenarios
143
144
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
BAU
2.82
3.31
6.78
13.98
21.18
21.18
21.18
NUC
2.82
3.31
6.78
13.98
40.0
55.0
70.0
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
BAU
1.5
2.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
REN
1.5
2.0
8.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
2026/27
2031/32
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
BAU
1.63
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
REN
1.63
5.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
Energy scenarios
145
Table 4.4 Installed capacity of SPV- and biomass-based power generation in aggressive
renewable energy scenario
Lower bound on installed capacity
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
SPV (GWp)
0.00
0.05
0.14
0.39
1.04
2.78
7.46
Biomass (GW)
0.00
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
8.00
146
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
REN
3.9
9.8
27.5
31.9
4.3.1.7 High-growth-cum-hybrid
scenario
This scenario combines a high GDP growth
rate of 10% coupled with high efficiency levels, high nuclear capacity, and an aggressive
use of renewable energy. This scenario is
representative of the most optimistic scenario in terms of both economic growth and
Energy scenarios
147
Description
to 50% in 2036.
Railway passenger share to increase from 23% in 2001
to 35% in 2036.
Share of electric traction to increase for rail
passenger and freight to 80%.
5.1
Introduction
150
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
Coal
150
193
242
344
466
757
1176
25
36
51
74
132
136
136
101
151
211
298
405
555
757
18
24
30
36
40
Nuclear energy
13
13
13
Renewable energy
285
391
527
749
1046
1497
2123
Natural gas
Oil
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
Hydro power
(large and small)
Total
151
The share of renewable energy (solar, wind, and bio-diesel) in commercial energy supply remains lower than
1% throughout the modelling time
frame. None of the options are preferred in terms of their relative economics.
In the BAU, consumption of traditional fuels, such as firewood, crop
residue, and dung in the residential
and commercial sectors, decreases to
half the current level of consumption
during the modelling time frame (from
149 Mtoe in 2001 to 73 Mtoe in
2031). The percentage share of the traditional fuels in the total primary
energy (commercial and non-commercial) supply decreases from 36% in
2001 to 4% in 2031, as shown in
Figure 5.3. This is mainly due to
switching over from non-commercial
fuels to commercial ones for cooking
purposes in the residential sector.
152
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
343
396
440
485
530
574
619
10
45
92
223
384
811
1438
353
440
532
708
913
1385
2057
10
17
31
42
59
70
2011
2021
2031
289
372
443
515
61
306
1265
14
41
71
153
5.2.2.3 Import
dependency of
petroleum products
2011
2021
2031
30
37
47
57
10
32
78
173
25
46
62
75
154
155
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
15
17
18
20
22
23
25
12
17
23
32
45
25
32
46
63
85
106
129
107
145
202
286
407
584
848
34
67
106
161
231
328
461
Table 5.6 Trends in sectoral shares in commercial energy consumption (in percentage)
Sector
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Agriculture
Commercial
Residential
13
12
12
12
11
10
Industry
57
54
53
52
53
54
56
Transport
18
25
28
29
30
31
31
156
Table 5.7 presents the supply and consumption of coal in the BAU scenario from 2001
to 2031. The coal consumption increases
from 353 to 2057 MT (million tonnes) dur-
157
Table 5.7 Supply and consumption of coal (million tonnes) in the business-as-usual scenario
Supply (A)
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
353
440
532
708
913
1385
2057
30
31
37
42
47
52
57
289
336
372
408
443
479
515
25
28
32
36
39
43
46
343
396
440
485
530
574
619
10
19
32
51
78
117
173
Non-coking coal
26
61
172
306
693
1265
10
45
92
223
384
811
1438
49
71
109
157
234
337
498
Captive power
27
32
37
52
82
114
160
Ore reduction
31
42
58
81
112
155
214
Power
246
296
328
418
485
779
1185
Total consumption
353
440
532
708
913
1385
2057
A=B+C
Production (B)
Coking coal
Non-coking coal
Lignite
Total production
Net import (C)
Coking coal
Consumption
(D)
Industry
(process heating)
Table 5.8 Supply and consumption of petroleum products (million tonnes) in the businessas-usual scenario
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2025/26
2031/32
104
152
211
300
409
563
767
Production (B)
33
40
55
79
79
79
79
71
112
156
222
330
484
688
Agriculture
10
10
11
Commercial
11
Supply (A)
A=B+C
Consumption (D)
Domestic
17
19
25
30
34
37
39
Industry
31
41
53
70
93
131
184
Transport
32
64
101
153
220
313
441
Total
91
136
192
268
364
500
686
158
Table 5.9 gives the net supply and consumption of natural gas over the modelling time
frame in the BAU scenario. The gas supply
increases from 26 BCM (billion cubic
metres) in 2001 to 139 BCM in 2031. These
estimates are based on the asFigure 5.10 Sectoral consumption of petroleum
sumption that the natural gas
products in the business-as-usual scenario
has a calorific value of 10 000
kcal
(kilocalories)/standard
cubic metre.
As already stated, due to
economic reasons, natural gas
is preferred in the fertilizer
sector, followed by the power
sector. The consumption in
the fertilizer sector is restricted to a certain extent because of the continued use of
other feedstocks like naphtha
and fuel oil.
159
Table 5.9 Supply and consumption of natural gas (billion cubic metres) in the business-asusual scenario
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
26
36
52
75
135
139
139
Production (B)
26
31
45
46
46
46
46
29
89
93
93
Industry (process)
Industry (captive)
13
Fertilizer
10
11
11
11
12
12
10
17
28
49
112
113
107
Supply (A)
A=B+C
Consumption (D)
Power
Transport
Total
26
0.16
0.15
36
0.15
52
0.15
75
0.15
135
0.15
139
0.15
139
160
Table 5.10 Trend in the sectoral electricity consumption in the business-as-usual scenario
(in terawatt hours)
Sector
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
Agriculture
87
99
111
124
138
152
167
Commercial
48
63
91
132
191
276
399
Domestic
82
134
222
365
573
786
1034
163
237
369
571
874
1212
1748
17
27
40
56
79
112
Industry
Transport
Figure 5.12 shows the trends in percentnarios is presented in this section. It also
age distribution of electricity consumption
provides a deeper insight into the variations
in the BAU scenario over the modelling time
in the final energy and end-use consumption
frame. The percentage share of the industrial
mix under alternative sets of assumptions. A
sector in total electricity consumption indetailed examination of these trends and increases from 42% in 2001 to 51% by 2031.
vestment requirements would be used to
During the same period, the percentage
frame policies.
share of domestic sector in the electricity
consumption increases from
21% to 30%. However, there
Figure 5.12 Trends in percentage distribution of
has been a decline in the perelectricity consumption in the business-as-usual scenario
centage share of the agriculture sector in total electricity
consumption, from 22% to
5% over the modelling time
frame. The share of the commercial and transport sectors
in electricity consumption
has remained constant over
the 30-year modelling time
frame.
5.3 Inter-scenario
comparisons
A comparative analysis of the
key results across all the sce-
161
Table 5.11 Variations in commercial energy consumption across various scenarios (in Mtoe)
Scenario
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
LG
285
361
456
605
816
1134
1579
BAU
285
391
527
749
1046
1497
2123
REN
285
391
524
740
1033
1479
2097
NUC
285
391
527
749
1030
1455
2061
EFF
285
379
479
623
838
1131
1542
HG
285
435
638
962
1438
2186
3351
LG low growth; BAU business-as-usual; REN aggressive renewable energy; NUC high nuclear capacity;
EFF high efficiency; HG high growth; Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent
162
163
164
(6.3 times). The coal-based capacity decreases from 466 GW in 2031 in the BAU
scenario to 349 GW in the EFF scenario.
Gas-based capacity increases from 137 GW
in the BAU scenario in 2031 to 141 GW in
the EFF scenario.
The total power generating capacity remains almost constant in the BAU, NUC,
and REN scenarios. However, there exists
variation in the technology deployment for
power generation across various scenarios.
In the NUC scenario, the nuclear power
generation replaces coal-based generation.
165
However, there is an increase in the annualized cost of gas-based power plants (centralized) by 5000 crores vis--vis the BAU
scenario. The increase in the cost of gasbased power plants is due to increased capacity of gas-based generation as well as
penetration of H-frame combined cycle gas
turbine that has higher capital cost.
In the NUC scenario, although the annualized costs for coal-based capacity decrease
by 29 000 crore rupees as compared to the
BAU scenario, the increase in the annualized
cost of nuclear power capacity (43 crore rupees) is more than the cost reduction.
166
Year 2031
Technology
BAU
EFF
BAU
EFF
Coal sub-critical
170
92
456
135
Coal-efficient
10
Coal IGCC
47
213
Gas-based
118
95
137
89
10
53
Diesel
116
116
158
158
21
21
21
21
441
392
795
681
BAU business-as-usual; EFF high efficiency; IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle;
CCGT combined cycle gas turbine; GW gigawatts
replacing sub-critical coal-based power generation. This is primarily due to the higher
efficiency of the CCGT (combined cycle gas
turbine) compared to rankine cycle power
generation in coal-based power generation.
IGCC and H-frame CCGT are almost
equally preferred options for power generation in the EFF scenario. IGCC based on
imported coal has better economics (lower
cost of generation) and, hence, is a preferred
option as against the IGCC based on indigenous coal. In the EFF scenario, the installed capacity based on H-frame CCGT
technology hits the upper bound based on
the limits of gas availability.
In the BAU scenario, for 2021, the subcritical coal-based generation capacity is
175 GW, whereas the power generation capacity of natural-gas-based CCGT is 118
GW. However, in the EFF scenario, the subcritical coal-based generation capacity is
167
168
169
5.3.3.2 Average
annual cost of coal
across various
scenarios
170
scenario than the BAU scenario as nuclear power replaces coal-based power
generation in 2031. The
coal cost is only marginally
lower (in 2031) in the REN
scenario when compared
with the BAU scenario.
5.3.4 Petroleum
product requirement
across various
scenarios
Total petroleum consumption increases by 7.6 times
during the 30-year period in
the BAU scenario. In the
EFF scenario, the corresponding increase is only
5.1 timesthe decrease being accounted for mainly by
the transport sector.
The oil imports remain
high in all the scenarios due
to constant production of
domestic crude. In the BAU
scenario, the import dependency is 74% and 90%, respectively, in 2011 and
2031. In the EFF scenario,
it is 71% and 85%, respectively, and 78% and 90% in
the NUC scenario for 2011
and 2031, respectively. Figures 5.23 and 5.24 and their
corresponding
tables
(Tables 5.13 and 5.14)
present domestic production, net import, and import
Net import
Import dependency
Scenario
(Mtoe)
(Mtoe)
(%)
BAU
55
156
74
EFF
55
137
71
REN
55
190
77
NUC
55
194
78
LG
55
133
71
HG
55
204
79
171
dependency of petroleum
products across different
scenarios for 2011 and
2031.
This has implications
with respect to energy securitythe EFF scenario is
the best for the economy in
terms of energy security
and monetary savings due
to reduced petroleum imports.
Figure 5.25 presents the
average annual cost of oil
and oil products across
various scenarios for 2011,
2021, and 2031. It is observed to be doubling every
decade in the BAU scenario. Compared to this,
the increase is only by about
1.6 times in the EFF scenario over the two decades.
5.3.4.1 Sectoral
petroleum consumption trends across
scenarios
The petroleum consumption in the transport sector
increases by about 13.6
times in the BAU scenario
over the 30-year time period as compared to an increase by 7.8 times in the
EFF scenario. This indicates that the magnitude of
increase in the petroleum
consumption in the trans-
172
sumption of petroleum
products is attributed to
petroleum products across various scenarios in 2031
the efficient modes for
road-based passenger and
Production
Net import
Import dependency
freight vehicles, along
Scenario
(Mtoe)
(Mtoe)
(%)
with a shift in the share of
BAU
79
688
90
rail-based movement and
EFF
79
443
85
higher utilization of pubREN
79
687
90
lic transport. In the case
NUC
79
742
90
of renewable energy, this
LG
79
506
87
decrease is due to the
availability of bio-diesel.
HG
79
1079
93
In the industry sector,
BAU business-as-usual; EFF high efficiency; REN aggressive
total
petroleum consumprenewable energy; NUC high nuclear capacity; LG low growth;
tion increases by six times
HG high growth; Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent
in the BAU scenario and
by 4.7 times in the EFF
Figure 5.25 Average annual cost of oil and oil
scenario. Naphtha conproducts across various scenarios
sumption decreases by
about 26% in the EFF
scenario as compared to
the BAU scenario in
2031. This is due to the
shift towards natural-gasbased fertilizer production.
In the commercial sector, the EFF scenario indicates a slight increase in
the consumption of petroleum products as compared
to
the
BAU
scenario, as there is a shift
from traditional fuels to
kerosene and LPG.
In the residential sector, the consumption of
port sector declined by almost 50% in the
petroleum products increases in the EFF
EFF scenario vis--vis the BAU scenario
scenario compared to the BAU scenario due
over the 30-year time frame (200131). In
to the displacement of traditional fuels at a
the EFF scenario, the decline in the conrelatively faster rate.
Table 5.14 Production, import, and import dependency of
173
174
5.4 Comparison of
hybrid scenarios
A comparative analysis of
the impacts of two hybrid
scenarios (namely, HYB
and HHYB, explained in
detail in Chapter 4) on the
energy system is presented
in this section.
5.4.1 Commercial
energy consumption
Table 5.15 gives the commercial energy consumption over the modelling
period across four scenarios, namely, BAU, HYB,
HG, and HHYB. The energy consumption grows
from 285 Mtoe in 2001 to
1503 Mtoe in 2031 in the
HYB scenario. In the
HHYB scenario, the energy
consumption grows from
285 Mtoe in 2001 to 2320
Mtoe in 2031. The commercial energy consumption in 2031 is lower by
29.2% in the HYB scenario
when compared with BAU
scenario. The consumption
in the HHYB scenario is
higher by about 9.3% compared to the BAU scenario
in 2031.
However, the consumption in the HHYB scenario
is about 1.5 times higher than the consumption in the HYB scenario in 2031.
The commercial energy supply in 2011,
2021, and 2031 is shown in Figure 5.31.
175
5.4.2 Generation
capacity mix
Figure 5.32 shows the
power generation capacity
mix in the BAU, HYB, HG,
and HHYB scenarios for
2011, 2021, and 2031. It
can be seen that the coal
power generation is the
highest in the HG scenario
in all the years. In the HYB
scenario, nuclear power
generation displaces coaland gas-based power generation but hydro-based
power generation capacity
increases marginally. The
renewable energy generation capacity reaches its
maximum potential of 26
GW in the HYB and
HHYB scenarios in 2031.
Hydro- and nuclear-based
power generation is exploited to its maximum potential of 160 and 70 GW,
respectively, in 2031. However, coal-based generation
capacity accounts for over
59% of the total power generation capacity in the
HHYB scenario and about
42% of the total power generation capacity in the
HYB scenario. Technology
deployment for power generation for 2021 and 2031 across the BAU,
HYB, HG, and HHYB scenarios is presented in Table 5.16 and Figures 5.33 and
5.34.
176
Table 5.15 Comparison of commercial energy consumption across various scenarios (in Mtoe)
Scenario
2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
BAU
285
391
527
749
1046
1497
2123
HYB
285
379
478
619
823
1101
1503
HG
285
435
638
962
1438
2186
3351
HHYB
285
405
544
760
1087
1576
2320
BAU business-as-usual; HYB hybrid; HG high growth; HHYB high-growth hybrid; Mtoe million tonnes of oil
equivalent
177
178
Table 5.16 Technology deployment (including decentralized) during 2021 and 2031 in the
business-as-usual and high growth and their respective hybrid scenarios (in GW)
Year 2021
Year 2031
Technology
BAU
HYB
HG
HHYB
BAU
HYB
Coal sub-critical
170
88
264
107
456
131
728
171
Coal-efficient
10
10
Coal IGCC
32
96
160
387
118
89
114
90
137
91
125
90
Gas-efficient
10
10
10
53
23
23
Diesel
116
118
116
118
158
160
158
160
21
40
21
40
21
70
21
70
12
12
26
26
441
395
541
480
795
700
1076
935
Gas
HG
HHYB
BAU business-as-usual; HYB hybrid; HG high growth; HHYB high-growth hybrid; IGCC integrated gasification
combined cycle; GW gigawatts
5.4.7 Consumption of
natural gas
Figure 5.40 shows the import of natural gas in the
BAU, HG, and their respective hybrid scenarios for
2011, 2021, and 2031. It can
be seen that the imports in
the BAU and the HG scenarios for 2021 and 2031 are
the same. The consumption
of natural gas in 2031 in the
BAU, HHYB, and HG scenarios hits the upper bound.
However, in the HYB scenario, the natural gas consumption for the same
period is below the upper
bound. This is due to the
Table 5.17 Coal consumption in various end-use sectors in 2011 (in Mtoe)
BAU
HYB
HG
HHYB
48
40
57
46
16
16
19
18
141
116
180
143
37
42
44
49
242
215
300
256
Sector
Power
Ore reduction
Total
Table 5.18 Coal consumption in various end-use sectors in 2021 (in Mtoe)
Sector
BAU
HYB
HG
HHYB
118
76
167
108
41
42
51
58
235
115
405
217
71
95
100
134
466
329
723
517
179
180
HYB
285
146
490
253
91
106
139
160
Power
663
296
1148
581
Ore reduction
137
219
231
370
Total
1176
767
2008
1364
Sector
HG
HHYB
Industry
(process heating)
Industry (captive
power generation)
Net
Import
Production
import
dependency
Scenario
(Mtoe)
(Mtoe)
(%)
BAU
79
330
HYB
79
HG
HHYB
181
Net
Import
Production
import
dependency
Scenario
(Mtoe)
(Mtoe)
(%)
81
BAU
79
688
90
223
74
HYB
79
415
84
79
566
88
HG
79
1079
93
79
299
79
HHYB
79
641
89
182
183
184
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
LG
0.022
0.022
0.020
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.018
BAU
0.022
0.022
0.020
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
REN
0.022
0.022
0.020
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NUC
0.022
0.022
0.020
0.019
0.018
0.017
0.017
EFF
0.022
0.021
0.018
0.016
0.015
0.013
0.012
HYB
0.022
0.021
0.018
0.016
0.014
0.013
0.012
HG
0.022
0.023
0.021
0.019
0.018
0.017
0.016
HHYB
0.022
0.021
0.018
0.015
0.014
0.012
0.011
LG low growth; BAU business-as-usual; REN aggressive renewable energy; NUC high nuclear capacity;
EFF high efficiency; HYB hybrid; HG high growth; HHYB high-growth hybrid; kgoe kilogram of oil
equivalent; GDP gross domestic product
185
186
5.6
A comparative analysis of the results is presented in detail for the five alternative transport sector scenarios described in Chapter 4.
The nomenclature used for the transport
sector scenarios in the graphical representation are: RAIL-ROAD (characterized by increased share of rail vis--vis road in
passenger and freight transport demand),
PUB-PVT (characterized by enhanced share
of public transport vis--vis personalized
mode of transport), FUEL EFF (fuel
economy improvements), BIODSL (penetration of bio-diesel), and TPT-HYB (combination of RAIL-ROAD, PUB-PVT,
FUELEFF, BIODSL, and BAU).
Table 5.23 presents the figures
for the projected commercial enFigure 5.43 Comparison of energy consumption
ergy consumption in the transport
in transport sector across various scenarios
sector
Figure 5.43 gives the comparison of total commercial energy
consumption (including electricity) in the transport sector across
various scenarios. The figure
clearly indicates that the projected
energy consumption (including
electricity) in the transport sector
exhibits a consistent upward trend
in all the five scenarios, including
the BAU, over the 30-year time
frame (200131). In all the transport sector scenarios, the freight
and passenger transport demand
exhibits an upward trend. Considering the optimal fuel technology
mix in the transport sector in each
187
Table 5.23 Total commercial energy consumption in transport sector (in Mtoe) across
various scenarios
Scenario
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
BAU
34
67
106
161
231
328
461
RAIL-ROAD
34
67
105
158
223
312
430
PUB-PVT
34
68
107
154
219
310
436
FUEL EFF
34
63
94
135
184
249
336
BIODSL
34
67
104
157
222
310
433
TPT-HYB
34
64
94
126
171
228
302
scenario. In absolute terms, the energy consumption in the TPT-HYB scenario declines
by 125 Mtoe for 2031 vis--vis the BAU
scenario.
Tables 5.245.26 present the results for
the projected fuel mix in the transport sector
across various scenarios for 2011, 2021, and
2031.
The inter-scenario comparison of fuel
mix in the transport sector is presented pictorially in Figure 5.44.
Diesel consumption accounts for maximum share (more than three-fourth) in the
total energy consumption throughout the
period 200131 in the BAU. However, its
Table 5.24 Projected fuel mix in transport sector (in Mtoe) across scenarios for 2011
Fuel
BAU
RAIL-ROAD
PUB-PVT
FUEL EFF
BIODSL
TPT-HYB
Gasoline
40.00
40.00
40.00
35.00
40.00
35.00
Diesel
60.00
58.00
60.00
53.00
58.00
50.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
Electricity
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.13
0.15
0.15
Bio-diesel
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Others
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
188
Table 5.25 Projected fuel mix in transport sector (in Mtoe) for various scenarios for 2021
Fuel
Gasoline
BAU
RAIL-ROAD
PUB-PVT
FUEL EFF
BIODSL
TPT-HYB
74.00
74.00
74.00
57.00
74.00
57.00
144.00
135.00
132.00
114.00
135.00
79.00
5.00
6.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
7.00
Electricity
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.11
0.15
9.42
Bio-diesel
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.00
9.00
Others
9.00
9.00
9.00
9.00
9.00
9.00
Diesel
Table 5.26 Projected fuel mix in transport sector (in Mtoe) for various scenarios for 2031
Fuel
BAU
RAIL-ROAD
PUB-PVT
FUEL EFF
BIODSL
TPT-HYB
Gasoline
107.00
107.00
107.00
75.00
107.00
75.00
Diesel
325.00
290.00
300.00
232.00
297.00
138.00
9.00
13.00
9.00
9.00
9.00
17.00
Electricity
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.10
0.15
24.19
Bio-diesel
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
28.00
28.00
19.00
19.00
19.00
19.00
19.00
19.00
Others
189
190
191
192
(million tonnes)
LG
12 172
BAU
16 223
REN
15 805
NUC
15 678
EFF
12 113
HYB
11 501
HG
25 004
HHYB
17 533
194
195
enable the CMPDIL (Central Mine Planning and Design Institute Ltd) to undertake more intensive R&D (research and
development) and scale-up its efforts to
improve coal extraction technology and
methods, especially beyond the depth of
300 metres;
undertake joint ventures for the extraction of coal from deep coal seams with a
view to upgrade technology and improve
productivity; and
adopt advanced exploration and production technologies to identify and produce
coal from seams beyond 300 metres.
196
for the Indian economy to meet the burgeoning oil demand through imports to
bridge the demandsupply gap. However,
the anticipated rise in oil demand is making
the Indian economy increasingly dependent
on oil imports, creating an additional financial burden on the Indian economy. This
makes the economy more prone to oil supply
shocks emanating from external factors such
as wars and political instability due to geopolitical situations. Another concern is that
of market risks arising from sudden increases in oil prices. The price rise adversely
hampers the process of economic growth
due to the inflationary impact caused by
northward bound oil prices.
Furthermore, since the bulk of oil consumption is in the transport sector, this sector presents the maximum potential for
oil-use efficiency, conservation, and substitution with alternative forms of energy from
the viewpoint of energy security.
The model results in the transport scenarios clearly indicate that if thrust is provided on promoting energy efficiency in the
transport sector, the import dependency of
petroleum products would decline from
about 74%, 81%, and 90% in the BAU to
72%, 76%, and 85% in the HYB scenario for
2011, 2021, and 2031, respectively. This decline in import dependency is mostly due to
the reduction in the quantities of petroleum
products imported mainly because of reduction in the energy consumption due to energy efficiency.
In the following section, the steps taken
by the Government of India towards meeting the energy security objectives are briefly
reviewed. The model results support these
policies.
197
6.2.4
198
Transit System), ensuring better connectivity of trains to urban areas of the cities,
introducing high-capacity buses, etc.
Electrification of railway tracks to the
maximum extent possible.
Increasing the share of rail in freight
movement and enhancing container
movement, while introducing door-todoor delivery systems.
Introducing BharatIII norms across the
country for road-based personal vehicles.
Introducing cleaner fuels such as low sulphur diesel, ethanol blending, and biodiesel.
ration and production from deep-sea. Moreover, we should source gas from within the
Asian region (including Turkmenistan,
Bangladesh, Iran, and Myanmar).
In general, the resource needs to be
tapped to a greater extentsince the use of
natural gas has implications in several sectors such as fertilizers, cement, sponge iron,
power, and transport.
6.2.8
Hydro power
6.2.9
Nuclear power
199
200
6.3
Technology pathways
201
202131
Commercialize IGCC
Ultra-supercritical boiler to be
commercialized
Demonstration
of commercialscale thoriumbased reactors
demonstrated
200611
Power generation technologies
State-of-the-art
industrial processes to be
adopted
Natural gas
from gas hydrates to be
commercialized
CBM coal bed methane; CFL compact fluorescent lamp; LED light emitting diode;
HVDC high voltage direct current; HVAC high voltage alternating current;
IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle; T&D transmission and distribution;
R&D research and development
204
Nuclear
6.3.3
End-use technologies
The adoption of energy-efficient technologies in the end-use energy-consuming sectors can have a major impact on the final
energy demand, primarily in transport and
residential sectors. In addition, there is a
possibility of technical loss reduction in the
transmission and distribution of power.
205
206
APPENDIX 1
A1.1
Introduction
208
Appendix 1
Appendix 1
209
scenarios. It is based on a hierarchical system of interconnected sub-models at the international, regional, and national levels.
Simulation is carried out for the international energy markets, national energy balances, and technical subsystems for final
energy consumption, energy transformation,
and production. Technological development
and diffusion of new technologies as well as
GHG emissions of the energy sector are
taken into account.
210
Appendix 1
Appendix 1
A1.4.1
GEM-E3
211
A1.4.2
PRIMES
The PRIMES model, used by the EU (European Union) environmental agencies, is designed only for measuring sectoral effects
and not economy-wide effects. PRIMES, a
partial equilibrium model, is primarily designed to show the effect of policy changes
on energy markets. It can calculate the direct
cost implications of reduced energy use, but
not the economy-wide impact on GDP
(gross domestic product), employment, and
investment.
212
Appendix 1
A1.4.6
Inputoutput models
Appendix 1
A1.4.6.2
MEGEVE-E3ME
A1.4.6.3
213
MICRO-MELODIE
APPENDIX 2
216
Appendix 2
Appendix 2
217
218
Appendix 2
Appendix 2
219
APPENDIX 3
f ( x ; , ) =
1
x 2
e (ln x )
/ 2 2
where, x is the household consumption expenditure for x > 0, where and are the
mean and standard deviation of the MPCEs
logarithm. The expected value is
E(X) = e+2/2
(A-3.1)
(A-3.2)
222
Appendix 3
(A-3.3)
where,
PFCE = private final consumption expenditure
and Y = GDP
Coefficient of GDP is the MPC (marginal
propensity to consume). In other words, an
MPC of 0.54 implies that one rupee increase
in income leads to an increase of 0.54 rupee
in consumption.
MPCE = PFCE/P
where,
H = population
In India, the per capita income increased
from 5823 rupees in 1981 to 12 281 rupees
in 2001. Correspondingly, the per capita expenditure increased from 5044 rupees to
8441 rupees during the same time period.
This increase in per capita expenditure was
at the annual rate of 2.48% during 1981
2001, when the per capita income growth
rate was 3.64%. The same is expected to increase at the rate of 4.8%, 6.0%, and 7.8%
with the per capita income growing at the
rate of 5.5%, 6.7%, and 8.5% at a GDP
Appendix 3
223
Urban
Monthly per
Calorie intake
Monthly per
Calorie intake
(kcal)
capita expenditure
(kcal)
0225
1383
0300
1398
225255
1609
300350
1654
255300
1733
350425
1729
300340
1868
425500
1912
340380
1957
500575
1968
F380420
2054
575665
2091
420470
2173
665775
2187
470525
2289
775915
2297
525615
2403
9151120
2467
615775
2581
11201500
2536
775950
2735
15001925
2736
Above 950
3178
Above 1925
2938
1993
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2121
2026
2031
2036
0225
0.101
0.057
0.044
0.016
0.005
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
225255
0.048
0.034
0.028
0.014
0.004
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
255300
0.083
0.065
0.056
0.031
0.014
0.004
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
300340
0.079
0.065
0.059
0.038
0.019
0.006
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
340380
0.077
0.071
0.065
0.046
0.026
0.010
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
380420
0.075
0.070
0.068
0.052
0.032
0.014
0.004
0.001
0.000
0.000
420470
0.084
0.086
0.084
0.070
0.049
0.024
0.007
0.001
0.000
0.000
470525
0.082
0.087
0.087
0.079
0.061
0.034
0.012
0.002
0.000
0.000
525615
0.106
0.120
0.124
0.126
0.108
0.073
0.031
0.008
0.001
0.000
615775
0.122
0.148
0.159
0.185
0.189
0.155
0.090
0.030
0.005
0.000
775950
0.070
0.092
0.102
0.138
0.167
0.172
0.131
0.062
0.015
0.002
9501200
0.044
0.061
0.072
0.109
0.154
0.196
0.198
0.134
0.051
0.009
12001500
0.019
0.028
0.033
0.057
0.094
0.148
0.196
0.186
0.105
0.029
15002000
0.008
0.013
0.015
0.030
0.057
0.109
0.191
0.260
0.230
0.111
20002800
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.008
0.018
0.044
0.104
0.213
0.311
0.271
> 2800
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.009
0.032
0.103
0.282
0.578
224
Appendix 3
1993
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
0300
0.094
0.047
0.035
0.012
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
300350
0.046
0.031
0.025
0.011
0.003
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
350425
0.076
0.058
0.050
0.028
0.011
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
425500
0.079
0.067
0.061
0.038
0.019
0.005
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
500575
0.077
0.071
0.067
0.049
0.026
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
575665
0.086
0.085
0.083
0.066
0.043
0.018
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
665775
0.093
0.098
0.098
0.088
0.065
0.034
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
775915
0.097
0.109
0.111
0.111
0.094
0.059
0.022
0.004
0.000
0.000
9151120
0.106
0.125
0.132
0.145
0.142
0.110
0.055
0.013
0.001
0.000
11201500
0.117
0.146
0.158
0.195
0.223
0.220
0.158
0.064
0.011
0.000
15001925
0.064
0.081
0.089
0.122
0.164
0.203
0.203
0.132
0.040
0.004
19252400
0.033
0.043
0.047
0.069
0.100
0.148
0.193
0.181
0.093
0.018
24003200
0.021
0.026
0.030
0.045
0.071
0.120
0.199
0.268
0.228
0.090
32004000
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.013
0.023
0.044
0.089
0.167
0.225
0.160
> 4000
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.008
0.013
0.026
0.065
0.170
0.402
0.728
2121
2026
2031
2036
1993
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
0225
0.101
0.057
0.044
0.012
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
225255
0.048
0.034
0.028
0.010
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
255300
0.083
0.065
0.056
0.025
0.006
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
300340
0.079
0.065
0.059
0.031
0.010
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
340380
0.077
0.071
0.065
0.038
0.014
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
380420
0.075
0.070
0.068
0.046
0.020
0.005
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
420470
0.084
0.086
0.084
0.063
0.031
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
470525
0.082
0.087
0.087
0.073
0.043
0.015
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
525615
0.106
0.120
0.124
0.121
0.084
0.037
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
615775
0.122
0.148
0.159
0.188
0.166
0.097
0.032
0.005
0.000
0.000
775950
0.070
0.092
0.102
0.148
0.171
0.135
0.064
0.016
0.001
0.000
9501200
0.044
0.061
0.072
0.124
0.183
0.195
0.133
0.048
0.009
0.001
12001500
0.019
0.028
0.033
0.069
0.130
0.188
0.181
0.100
0.026
0.002
15002000
0.008
0.013
0.015
0.039
0.094
0.181
0.252
0.218
0.099
0.020
20002800
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.011
0.036
0.100
0.212
0.304
0.250
0.101
> 2800
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.008
0.032
0.112
0.308
0.615
0.876
Appendix 3
225
1993
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
0300
0.094
0.047
0.035
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
300350
0.046
0.031
0.025
0.009
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
350425
0.076
0.058
0.050
0.023
0.006
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
425500
0.079
0.067
0.061
0.033
0.010
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
500575
0.077
0.071
0.067
0.042
0.017
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
575665
0.086
0.085
0.083
0.059
0.028
0.008
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
665775
0.093
0.098
0.098
0.080
0.045
0.015
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
775915
0.097
0.109
0.111
0.104
0.071
0.030
0.006
0.001
0.000
0.000
9151120
0.106
0.125
0.132
0.142
0.119
0.065
0.019
0.002
0.000
0.000
11201500
0.117
0.146
0.158
0.200
0.213
0.164
0.075
0.016
0.001
0.000
15001925
0.064
0.081
0.089
0.134
0.181
0.191
0.131
0.047
0.007
0.000
19252400
0.033
0.043
0.047
0.080
0.130
0.174
0.168
0.092
0.022
0.002
24003200
0.021
0.026
0.030
0.053
0.107
0.183
0.243
0.207
0.088
0.014
32004000
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.021
0.041
0.088
0.158
0.201
0.143
0.042
> 4000
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.011
0.029
0.076
0.196
0.434
0.739
0.942
2121
2026
2031
2036
1993
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
0225
0.101
0.057
0.044
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
225255
0.048
0.034
0.028
0.008
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
255300
0.083
0.065
0.056
0.020
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
300340
0.079
0.065
0.059
0.027
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
340380
0.077
0.071
0.065
0.034
0.008
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
380420
0.075
0.070
0.068
0.040
0.012
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
420470
0.084
0.086
0.084
0.057
0.019
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
470525
0.082
0.087
0.087
0.069
0.029
0.005
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
525615
0.106
0.120
0.124
0.116
0.061
0.015
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
615775
0.122
0.148
0.159
0.187
0.136
0.047
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
775950
0.070
0.092
0.102
0.155
0.159
0.084
0.018
0.001
0.000
0.000
9501200
0.044
0.061
0.072
0.135
0.195
0.152
0.052
0.006
0.000
0.000
12001500
0.019
0.028
0.033
0.079
0.160
0.187
0.101
0.020
0.001
0.000
15002000
0.008
0.013
0.015
0.047
0.133
0.237
0.216
0.079
0.009
0.000
20002800
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.015
0.062
0.180
0.294
0.215
0.055
0.004
> 2800
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.017
0.088
0.311
0.679
0.935
0.996
226
Appendix 3
1993
1999
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
0300
0.094
0.047
0.035
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
300350
0.046
0.031
0.025
0.008
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
350425
0.076
0.058
0.050
0.019
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
425500
0.079
0.067
0.061
0.028
0.006
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
500575
0.077
0.071
0.067
0.037
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
575665
0.086
0.085
0.083
0.054
0.017
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
665775
0.093
0.098
0.098
0.074
0.031
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
775915
0.097
0.109
0.111
0.099
0.052
0.012
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
9151120
0.106
0.125
0.132
0.139
0.094
0.032
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
11201500
0.117
0.146
0.158
0.204
0.194
0.100
0.021
0.001
0.000
0.000
15001925
0.064
0.081
0.089
0.143
0.188
0.149
0.053
0.006
0.000
0.000
19252400
0.033
0.043
0.047
0.088
0.151
0.170
0.095
0.018
0.001
0.000
24003200
0.021
0.026
0.030
0.064
0.141
0.224
0.201
0.073
0.007
0.000
32004000
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.022
0.062
0.137
0.190
0.119
0.024
0.001
> 4000
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.014
0.050
0.167
0.435
0.783
0.968
0.999
the performance of the Indian economy during the Eighth and the Ninth Plan periods.
During these plan periods many of the commonly held beliefs regarding the potentialities and constraints that govern the operation of the economic system have been questioned and highlighted.
There are three major experiences from
the previous plan periods, as highlighted in
the Tenth Five Year Plan that lay down the
guidelines for setting the growth targets for
the future.
Firstly, the growth rate of the Indian
economy is no longer constrained by the
availability of savings or investible resources.
The clearest evidence for this is given by the
persistent difference between the external
capital inflows and the CAD (current account deficit) that has existed through much
of the 1990s. CAD represents the excess of
total investment in the country over domes-
Appendix 3
tic savings while external capital flows represent the inflow of potential savings from
abroad. The excess of external capital inflows over CAD is therefore an indication of
the failure of investment demand to absorb
foreign savings. Thus, it can be stated that
the availability of investible resources was
not the primary constraint to growth and investment in India.
Secondly, the growth rate of an economy
is not wholly determined by the level of investment activity. The Tenth Five Year Plan
highlights the fact that the rate of real investment as a percentage of GDP was higher
during the Ninth Five Year Plan as compared
to the previous plan period. The Ninth Five
Year Plan recorded a real investment rate of
26.3% of GDP as compared to 24.9% during the Eighth Five Year Plan. However, the
economy registered an average annual GDP
growth rate of 6.7% per annum as against
5.3% during the Ninth Plan. This is explained by the fact that the investment rate
when measured in nominal terms has declined from 24.8% in the Eighth Plan to
24.3% in the Ninth Plan period. Also, the
nominal investment rate has been at or below the private savings rate. The Ninth Plan
period was characterized by a decline in the
levels of capacity utilization thereby explaining a decline in the investment rate in nominal terms.
Thirdly, the growth of the agriculture sector is a key determinant of the overall economic growth rate. Although the share of
agriculture in aggregate GDP has declined
to 26.9% of GDP reducing the sensitivity of
GDP growth rate to fluctuations in agricul-
227
Domestic savings comprise domestic public and domestic private savings. Domestic private savings are further subdivided into household savings and savings by the private corporate sector.
228
(b)
(c)
Appendix 3
information, communication, and entertainment sectors would lead to acceleration in growth of other services.
Thus, the 8% growth rate is considered
feasible in the Tenth Plan period since the
scope for realizing improvements in efficiency is very large both in the public and
private sector assuming that the policy imperatives discussed above materialize.
For these aforementioned reasons, TERI
has adopted the GDP growth rate of 8% for
energy demand projections for the Tenth
Five Year Plan period consistent with the
plans of the GoI. Based on the assumption
that the 8% growth rate can be sustained for
a period extending beyond the Tenth Five
Year Plan period, TERI has projected GDP
to grow at an average annual rate of 8% per
annum through the entire modelling period
(200136).
A3.3 Methodology for GDP projections under 6.7% GDP growth rate
In a separate exercise to project GDP growth
for India, TERI has modified the model developed by Goldman Sachs (2003) for longterm GDP projections in Brazil, Russia, India, and China popularly referred to as
BRICs countries. For this purpose, we have
used the growth accounting framework used
by Goldman Sachs, which was first developed by Solow in 1956. According to this
framework, growth in output can be broken
down into the following components.
(a) Growth in output due to measured
growth in labour input
(b) Growth in output due to measured
growth in capital input
(c) Technological progress
Appendix 3
A3.3.1
Assumptions
A3.3.1.2
Convergence
229
230
Appendix 3
Appendix 3
A3.3.1.4
231
Demographics
A3.3.2
Results
232
Appendix 3
Bibliography
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Labour and Capital Augmenting Technical
Change
USA: Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Barro R J. 1998
Notes on Growth Accounting
UK: Harvard University
Bhattacharya B B and Kar S. 2002
Long-run growth prospects for Indian Economy
Details available at, http://planningcommission.nic.in/
reports/sereport/ser/vision2025/longrun.pdf, last accessed 20 April 2006
Bloom D E, Canning D, and Sevilla J. 2002
Technological Diffusion, Conditional Convergence, and Economic Growth NBER (National
Bureau of Economic Research) Working Paper Series,
Working Paper # 8713
USA: NBER
Caselli F and Wilbur J CII. 2003
The World Technology Frontier (second draft)
USA: CEPR (Centre for Economic Policy Research),
NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), and
Harvard University
Caselli and Wilson. (in press)
Importing Technology
Journal of Monetary Economics
Census of India. 1991
Projected Population of India: 19962016
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2006
Census of India. 2001
Final population: 2001 Census
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New Delhi: Office of the Registrar General
Details available at http://www.censusindia.net, last
accessed 20 April 2006
Dyson T. and Amresh Hanchate, 2000
Indias demographic and food prospects: statelevel analysis
Economic and Political Weekly (November): 40214036
Appendix 3
Nazrul I. 1998
Convergence: variation in concept and empirical results
Atlanta, USA: Department of Economics, Emory
University
NSSO (National Sample Survey Organization). 1998.
50th Round of Household Schedule 1.0 Consumer Expenditure Survey Data
New Delhi: Department of Statistics, NSSO, Government of India.
NSSO (National Sample Survey Organization). 2000.
55th Round of Household Schedule 1.0 Consumer Expenditure Survey Data
New Delhi: Department of Statistics, NSSO, Government of India.
Park D and Rhee C. 2005
Saving, growth, and demographic changes in
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Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
19(3): 394413
Planning Commission. 2002
Report of the Committee on India Vision 2020
New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government of
India
Planning Commission. 2002
Tenth Five-Year Plan (20022007)
New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government of
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Population Division of the Department of Economic
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2006
World Population Prospects: the 2004 revision
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[Details available at http://esa.un.org/unpp, last
accessed on 6 January 2006]
233
APPENDIX 4
236
Appendix 4
Appendix 4
237
238
Appendix 4
Appendix 4
239
APPENDIX 5
Sankey diagrams
Figure A5.5 Sankey diagram for high energy efficiency scenario (2031)
Figure A5.6 Sankey diagram for high nuclear capacity scenario (2031)
APPENDIX 6
Balance sheets
Table A6.1
Energy balance in the business-as-usual scenario in 2011 (all figures are in Mtoe)
Oil and
Supplydemand
natural
Petroleum
Hydro (large
Nuclear
Renewable
Total
gas
products
and small)
energy
energy
power
Total
242
51
211
18
527
45
14
96
14
Coal
Supply
Conversions
Power generation
82
110
12
12
21
21
18
Consumption
Agriculture
Industry
102
23
54
23
202
Transport
104
106
Residential
27
19
46
Commercial
12
End-use consumption
102
23
199
61
384
Notes
Nil or negligible.
Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding off.
Energy supply from hydro and nuclear options are considered equal to the amount of electricity generated.
Energy consumption in industry includes energy use for process heating, captive power generation, and feedstock.
250
Appendix 6
Table A6.2
Energy balance in the business-as-usual scenario in 2021 (all figures are in Mtoe)
Oil and
natural
Petroleum
Hydro (large
Nuclear
Renewable
Total
Supplydemand
Coal
gas
products
and small)
energy
energy
power
Supply
466
132
405
30
13
76
59
159
51
Total
1046
Conversions
Power generation
178
210
28
28
40
40
22
Consumption
Agriculture
10
11
Industry
231
23
96
58
407
Transport
226
231
Residential
37
48
85
Commercial
16
23
End-use consumption
231
23
377
138
768
Notes
Nil or negligible.
Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding off.
Energy supply from hydro and nuclear options are considered equal to the amount of electricity generated.
Energy consumption in industry includes energy use for process heating, captive power generation, and feedstock.
Table A6.3
Energy balance in the business-as-usual scenario in 2031 (all figures are in Mtoe)
Oil and
natural
Petroleum
Hydro (large
Nuclear
Renewable
Total
Supplydemand
Coal
gas
products
and small)
energy
energy
power
Supply
1176
136
757
40
13
215
56
448
49
Total
2123
Conversions
Power generation
325
497
50
50
68
68
25
Consumption
Agriculture
11
14
Industry
513
31
190
114
848
Transport
452
461
Residential
42
86
129
Commercial
12
33
45
End-use consumption
513
31
708
256
1508
Notes
Nil or negligible.
Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding off.
Energy supply from hydro and nuclear options are considered equal to the amount of electricity generated.
Energy consumption in industry includes energy use for process heating, captive power generation, and feedstock.
Appendix 6 251
Table A6.4
Energy balance in the hybrid scenario in 2011 (all figures are in Mtoe)
Oil and
natural
Petroleum
Hydro (large
Nuclear
Renewable
Total
Supplydemand
Coal
gas
products
and small)
energy
energy
power
Supply
215
49
189
18
38
12
79
12
Total
478
Conversions
Power generation
74
90
12
12
19
19
17
Consumption
Agriculture
Industry
98
24
48
21
191
Transport
89
93
Residential
27
17
44
Commercial
11
End-use consumption
98
24
177
55
356
Notes
Nil or negligible.
Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding off.
Energy supply from hydro and nuclear options are considered equal to the amount of electricity generated.
Energy consumption in industry includes energy use for process heating, captive power generation, and feedstock.
Table A6.5
Energy balance in the hybrid scenario in 2021 (all figures are in Mtoe)
Oil and
Supplydemand
Coal
Supply
natural
Petroleum
Hydro (large
Nuclear
Renewable
Total
gas
products
and small)
energy
energy
power
Total
329
129
299
31
24
11
823
Conversions
Power generation
43
48
72
41
148
113
22
22
33
33
18
Consumption
Agriculture
10
Industry
214
30
79
47
370
Transport
10
144
171
Residential
37
39
76
Commercial
12
20
End-use consumption
214
40
268
116
655
Notes
Nil or negligible.
Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding off.
Energy supply from hydro and nuclear options are considered equal to the amount of electricity generated.
Energy consumption in industry includes energy use for process heating, captive power generation, and feedstock.
252
Appendix 6
Table A6.6
Energy balance in the hybrid scenario in 2031 (all figures are in Mtoe)
Oil and
natural
Petroleum
Hydro (large
Nuclear
Renewable
Total
Supplydemand
Coal
gas
products
and small)
energy
energy
power
Supply
767
136
484
41
42
33
126
42
170
32
Total
1503
Conversions
Power generation
254
202
41
41
T&D
51
51
19
Consumption
Agriculture
10
Industry
471
37
148
86
743
Transport
25
231
17
302
Residential
42
65
107
Commercial
13
25
38
End-use consumption
471
62
444
204
1209
Notes
28
Nil or negligible.
Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding off.
Energy supply from hydro and nuclear options are considered equal to the amount of electricity generated.
Energy consumption in industry includes energy use for process heating, captive power generation, and feedstock.
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