GIS/EM4 - Seeing it in flow-motion

4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4):

Problems, Prospects and Research Needs. Banff, Alberta, Canada, September 2 - 8, 2000.

Seeing it in flow-motion:
Supporting operational watershed-management through GIS-enabled
prediction of flow-regimes on ungauged rivers, and hydrographic analysis for
gauged rivers
GIS/EM4 No. 83
Andrew R Young
Michael I Allchin
Matthew GR Holmes
Abstract
The considerable variation observed in the behaviour of river-flows, both spatially and temporally, relates to both
natural and artificial factors. The natural components relate to the distribution of influences of climate, substrate, and
vegetative cover operating in the watershed: the artificial influences include the results of direct and indirect, passive
and active human exploitation of water resources. These degrees of freedom make the task of the environmental
authorities charged with managing water-resouces and river-quality very difficult to perform. In support of the solution
to this problem, scientists at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology have developed a suite of modelling techniques
which generate water-resource descriptors at both ungauged and gauged sites, and which incorporate consideration of
these various influences. These have now been implemented within a custom-developed GIS shell, using a multidimensional database to store feature-details. By employing creative methods in its design and implementation, and an
appropriate mixture of databasing resources, an advanced solution has been developed for a small proportion of the
usual cost associated with ventures of this type. The flexible and generic architecture of the software will support its
extension to cover a multitude of uses in other branches of study into, and monitoring and management of, the natural
environment. This paper describes the scientific and software-related innovations which have contributed to the
realisation of these aims.

Keywords
Environment, Hydrology, Monitoring, Management, Water-resources, Flow-modelling, Watershed-management ,
Basin-analysis, 4D-databasing, MapObjects

Introduction
Observation reveals considerable variation in the nature of river flow-regimes, both spatially and temporally. Natural
river-flow regimes are known to be dependent on components relating to the distribution of influences relating to
climate, substrate, and vegetative cover operating in the watershed which drains through a point of interest. These are
often greatly modified as a result of artificial influences, both direct and indirect, ranging from the passive effects of
different types of land-use, to such immediate impacts as reservoir-impoundment, water-abstraction, and effluentdischarge. These two broad components of variability make the task of the environmental authorities charged with

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managing water-resouces and river-quality very difficult to perform.

To meet this challenge, scientists at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, a constituent of the UK Natural
Environment Research Council, have developed a suite of modelling techniques to assist in the estimation of waterresource descriptors at both ungauged and gauged sites, which include an assessment of the degree to which artificial
influences modify these regimes. These have been implemented within a custom-developed GIS-type shell, using a
multi-dimensional database to store feature-details.
This paper will describe the use of component-based GIS and data-modelling in supporting the requirements to
disentangle large numbers of inter-related natural and artificial influences on river-flows, and to quantify and reaggregate these in order to generate summary-statistics in support of regulatory decision-making. It will summarise the
models employed, and discuss the functionality of the software in detail. The paper will conclude with a discussion of
possible future developments.

Scientific overview
The 'flashy' responses of wet, impermeable watersheds in the North and West of the country contrast markedly with
that of an English lowland chalk stream, where flows show little variation over the year. At the broadest scale, natural
river flow regimes are dependent on rainfall, temperature and evaporation. On a local scale, flows are controlled by the
physical properties of a catchment, including geology, land use and the presence of surface-water bodies.
River flow-regimes are also affected directly and indirectly by human activities, such as reservoir impoundment,
abstraction of water, effluent discharges and land use change. The impacts of these activities vary considerably and are
dependent to a certain extent on the characteristics of the catchment. Within the UK, the generally high populationdensity, in conjunction with the level of demand from industrial, agricultural and utilities-related users, means that
some 80% of gauged watersheds may be regarded as being influenced in this way. There are in excess of 2250 waterimpoundment structures, 48000 licences to abstract water and 86000 consents to discharge. In addition there are 26
river augmentation schemes, substantial inter-basin transfer schemes and over 5000 km of canals.
The identification of the natural and artificial components of river flow is an essential component of UK water resource
management but is both a difficult and time-consuming task to undertake. This is compounded further by the relatively
sparse monitoring of river flows; fewer than 1% of UK river-stretches (mapped at a scale of 1:50000) are gauged
routinely. Many management decisions that require information on river flows are therefore being undertaken within
catchments for which there is no measured data on river flows. Where gauged data are available, the principal
challenge is to distinguish between the natural and artificial components influencing the observed statistics, in order to
quantify the basic resource, thereby supporting the formulation of descriptors of future water-use scenarios.
The models developed at CEH address these issues through two strands:
1: By providing the means to synthesise flow-regime descriptors at ungauged sites
2: By supporting the dissociation of natural and artificial components influencing river flows at gauged sites
Versions of these models have been in use operationally for ten years with the UK regulatory authorities (first by the National
Rivers Authority, and subsequently by the Environment Agency) through the Micro LOW FLOWS software (Young et al, 2000a
and 2000b). User-surveys have demonstrated that the system is used to make in excess of 4000 flow-estimates per annum.
However, the architecture of the current software (written for DOS using a proprietary file-based database) has been obsolete
for some time. Over the past two years both the scientific models and the software have been given completely revised, to
incorporate major improvements through the use of contemporary desktop-GIS, databasing, presentational and ergonomic
components, together with scientific developments in the modelling of regional hydrology. The new software system, named
LowFlows2000, is described in the following sections: these will also detail the scientific models and algorithms for which it
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provides a processing shell.

Software overview
What differentiates LowFlows2000 from the great majority of environmental information systems is in the utilisation of
what is essentially an entry-level GIS toolset in the realisation of a complex and functionally-rich suite of software. The
use of ESRI MapObjects to provide the mapping componentry has cut both the development and per-seat costs
substantially, without compromising the integrity of the product as a whole. By using creative methods in its design
and implementation, and an appropriate mixture of databasing resources and architectures, an advanced solution has
been developed for a small proportion of the cost usually associated with projects of this type.
Most of the functionality is driven from or by the map on the main GUI, which is also essential in illustrating the
contextual detail of rivers, watersheds, and a range of relevant natural and human features of the environment. The
software also employs many of the spatial search-methods provided by MapObjects, and some of the visualisation-aids
included in the MOPlus extensions. However, the vast majority of the code is written to perform complex analysis on
datasets generated by initial reference to the map, and then to present and manipulate the resultant information.
The data-model employed is based on that of the Water Information System (WIS), an environmental informationsystem developed in the early 1990s at the Institute of Hydrology (Moore R.V., 1997). The principal strengths of this
model are great flexibility in the number and nature of attributes (what) stored for features (where) at given time-shots
(when), which provides a potentially limitless number of storage-entities, any of which may be expressed as timeseries, and with the possibility of storing multiple values for any what / where / when combination. The database is
currently implemented on Microsoft Access, and may reside on a networked server, with ADO (and some DAO) used
as the means of querying and managing the details which it contains.
The ESRI ShapeFile format has been used to provide the spatial-data repository, as this provides a reasonably flexible,
efficient and inexpensive means of managing the variety of features to which the software refers. However, ShapeFiles
are not well-suited to distributed multi-user implementations, particularly when edits may be made to the databaseresident details from which they are drawn: the software therefore had to include a solution which would ensure that
the database and the ShapeFiles would remain in synchronisation, and that updates would be inter-visible to the set of
clients using them. This has been solved by using a master / slave architecture: the master ShapeFile sits on the server
with the database, and will at any point in time store a set of features which correspond to the contents of the database.
When data-edits are made through a client to any value pertinent to a feature stored on a map-layer, such as the position
of a point, or one of a small number of other details stored in the dBase file associated with the layer, the relevant
details are updated on the master. The clients will ensure that they have a copy of the up-to-date version on starting a
session, and before attempting to commit any edit to the database.
The software currently comprises modules to support the analysis of water-resources at both gauged and ungauged sites
on a river-network.

Ungauged sites
The ungauged-sites module provides the means of estimating the flow-regime at a site on a river for which no timeseries of flow measurements is available. This is managed by a process of definition, description, and comparison, as
follows.
Basin Definition
The basin-definition routines provide two options for climbing the watershed: an analogue climb, based on
drainage-density, and a digital climb, based on a grid derived from a digital elevation-model. Both these methods
seek to identify a topographic boundary for the catchment in question. The river network is represented on a vectorlayer of flow-sensed line-objects representing stretches, stored as a ShapeFile.
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Illustration 1: Inset of headwaters of River Severn watershed:

illustrates ShapeFile of digitised rivers, rendered by stream-order over topographic raster-layer (approx 28km x
24km)

Illustration 2: Same area, over 1000m grid rendered by standard average annual rainfall
Analogue climb
The 'analogue' method (Sekulin et al, 1992) was used in the previous version of the software, and provides
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reasonable estimates of watershed extent and form. It relies on the prior preparation of a grid which associates
cells of a given resolution with the river-stretch into which they might be expected to drain: this association is
made on the basis of shortest distance. This is a premise which is more or less realistic, depending on the
geological characteristics and hence drainage network density of the area in question. To aid the cell allocation
procedure the association may be guided by a set of pre-digitised boundary-polygons. By using more of these
constraining polygons, and a finer grid-resolution, the refinement of the association between cells and stretches
may be improved significantly. The association itself is stored in a read-only database.
When a climb is started, by specifying co-ordinates for the outlet, the software identifies the nearest appropriate
river-stretch, and then loops to climb up every upstream tributary-branch, using pointers stored in the dBase table
behind the ShapeFile which detail neighbouring stretches. When a stretch is added to the set, its line-identifier is
used to select the details of the gridcells with which it is associated from the database. By the time that the full
sub-network has been climbed, a corresponding set of cell-details is available to describe the extent the basin. It
is then relatively straightforward to draw a boundary-polygon around this sub-grid to represent the form of the
watershed at this resolution. Both 500m and 200m grids have been used thus far.

Illustration 3: Showing boundary identified by stretch-based or 'analogue' climb: note close match with
constraining hand-digitised reference-boundary (in brown). (approx 25km x 20km)
The advantages of this method are that it relies only on the availability of a vector-layer of rivers for the area of
study: by adding constraining reference-boundaries to improve correlation with topographic features, and
increasing grid-resolution, it is possible to estimate catchment boundaries accurately using method under many
condititons. The methods are error prone in very small catchment (less than 20km2 ) and where the rate of change
in the network density is high leading to asymmetric drainage networks.. It is also fast to run: on a 300MHz P2
with 128Mb, it takes just over a minute to climb the 11000 stretches in the basin of the River Severn (~11250
km2), the largest in Britain.
Digital climb
The 'digital' climb seeks to define a watershed in the absence of a set of digitised rivers, on the basis of a grid of
flow-directions inferred from a digital elevation-model. In the UK, topographic data are available at a resolution
of 50m, and work has been continuing for some years to translate this into a network which gives a reliable
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representation of real-world inflow / outflow patterns throughout the varied terrain and climate of the British Isles
(Morris & Heerdegen, 1988, Morris & Flavin, 1990). The logic is much the same as that for the 'analogue' climb:
by building-up the set of points with flow-directions leading toward the chosen outlet, a representation of the
watershed is derived as a two-dimensional array. However, this is at a very much finer precision than the
analogue equivalent - 400 points per square kilometre, rather than 25 for a 200m analogue-grid, or 4 if it is drawn
at 500m resolution.

Illustration 4: Showing boundary identified by 'digital' climb, based on flow-grid derived from DTM: note
closer match with topography. (approx 25km x 20km)
This method is thus able to generate a detailed representation of a basin, but is highly-dependent on the veracity
of the conversion from elevation-grid to flow-model - which itself refers to a digitised river-network, another
potential source of error. These may be compounded in flat areas, and over highly-permeable geology,
particularly if subterranean drainage plays a rle. It is also much slower to run (more than 7 minutes for about
10000 km). It is therefore more commonly used in the UK to define small watersheds and thus it compliments
the analogue method.
Watershed Analysis
Both climbs generate a two-dimensional array of gridcells describing the extent and form of the basin, around which
a vector-polygon is drawn to represent the watershed on the map. This is overlaid on kilometric grids of standard
average annual rainfall, annual runoff, and a set of thirty standard HOST (Hydrology of Of Soil Types) classes, in
order to generate a description of its natural characteristics. The runoff-grid is generated by a (pre-run) singleparameter dynamic water-balance model, based on Grindley (1970). The HOST classification is a classification of
soil association within the the UK based on physical and hydrological characteristics (Boorman et al, 1995).
The HOST distribution and average rainfall over the basin are compared with equivalent values stored for a pool of
reference-stations, for which long-term gauged flow-data are available, and whose flow-regimes may be considered
essentially natural. By deriving and ranking measures of comparability based on euclidean distances between the
estimated basin-descriptors and those of the reference-stations, it is possible to select a sub-set of stations fed by
basins which are broadly analogous to that above the target-site (see Holmes and Young 2000).

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Natural Low-Flow Estimation

The stations in the pool also own statistics describing the flow-regime measured by the station. The primary
statistics comprise sets of annual and monthly flow-duration series and their corresponding mean flows By
averaging these flow-descriptors for the stations below the set of 10 basins identified as being the most analogous to
the basin under consideration, raw values of the same measures are generated for the target-site, as described in
Holmes and Young 2000. By estimating runoff-volume from the synthesised watershed and converting to annual
mean flow, these may then be scaled to provide a full set of monthly and annual natural flow-regime descriptors,
comprising mean flows, mean annual minima, flow-duration and flow-frequency series. These are presented by the
software through a synoptic form, which supports a range of visualisation and manipulation of the data, including
the generation of 'seasonal' flow-duration series by the aggregation of component monthly series.
Influenced Low-Flow Estimation
The influence of artificial features on the natural flow-regime is quantified through referral to a geo-referenced
database of artificial influence features. This stores details of features such as abstractions from groundwater and
surface water , discharges and impoundments within the WIS model detailed above. These are potentially very
complex features; for example a licence to abstract may have up to 40 distinct sites and each of these site water may
be licenced for abstraction for a number of purposes. The licenced quantities for the whole licence, sites and
individual purposes can be highly inter-dependent. The sets of attributes associated with the various feature-types
are specified by the client-organisation, but will include details of the average monthly operating volumes of every
individual feature. In the case of groundwater abstractions there is a simple analytical model based on the Jenkins
(1970) implementation of the Theis (1941) analytical solution for predicting the impact of a groundwater abstraction
upon an adjacent river reach.
When this database is written, vector-layers (ShapeFiles) of corresponding features are also drawn: those features
which apply to the basin under consideration are identified through spatial searches, conducted by overlaying the
polygon representing its boundary on these layers.
The most complex step within this process relates to the exclusion of basins above impoundment-points: In the
absence of compensation flows or release strategy an impoundemt structure essentially truncates the catchment at
the site of the structure. Furthermore influences upstream of the structure will not influence the downstream
catchment. and thus the flow-regime immediately downstream of the structure is dependent solely on its releaseprofile (including compensation flows and spills). The software identifies all impoundments within the full
watershed by a spatial search on the ShapeFile which describes the positions of these features, within the constraint
of the polygon representing the boundary: it then ranks these in order of the size of basin which they impound, from
large to small (using the approximate basin-area above the stretch on which the dam is situated, as stored against the
line representing the stretch on the layer of rivers). The next step is to define the impounded watershed(s), by means
of an 'analogue' climb, as described above. The resultant polygon then has its point-order reversed, and is added to
the original polygon representing the full basin. This has the effect of adding an 'island' within the full basin: any
artificial influences within it may then be excluded, and the natural low flows for the remainder are re-estimated as
the new basis for the influenced flow statistics.

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Illustration 5: Showing full climbed watershed (outer red polygon), with impounded sub-basin excluded above
damming-point (not shaded in pale blue)
Searches for the other types of feature within the un-impounded, or contributing, portion of the basin complete the
inventory of artificial influences. The map-objects on the various ShapeFiles representing these features store
database-identifiers, which provide the keys for the selection of corresponding monthly influence-profiles from the
database. The volumes released from dams and discharges are added, and the those taken by boreholes and pumpingstations deducted: these monthly volumes are then converted into equivalent flows to provide a net influenceprofile. By combining the monthly natural low flows (for the area of the original full basin below the largest
impoundment(s) which it contains) with the relevant monthly profile, the software generates its estimate of the
influenced low-flow descriptors at the site of interest. Some of the outputs from this module are shown below.

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Illustration 6: Showing contextual details for artficially-influenced low flows generated for ungauged site: the lists
on the tabbed control to the left detail the different types of influencing features found

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Illustration 7: Flow-duration plot generated for ungauged site, showing monthly and annual series
The provision of these estimates of flow-regime for any site enables the user to assess the potential impact of
changes in water use within a catchment. As part of this functionality the system also supports what if? modelling
of artificial influences operating at different rates and spatial / temporal distributions, by allowing scenario influenceprofiles to be set for combination with the base natural low-flow regime.

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Illustration 8: Showing form used to define water-use scenario: incremental volumes or proportions are input in the
fields on the tab-control, to convert the original volumes on the left to the model totals on the right.
To support the load and maintenance of the great variety of attributes which are stored to describe the different types
of feature relating to these models, a separate module handles insertions, edits and deletions. The illustration below
shows an example of these details.

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Illustration 9: Form showing attributes stored against database-feature representing a borehole-site.

Note that the regulatory permit or licence may refer to several sites, which in turn may refer to several purposes.
Residual-Flow Diagram
The response to the combination of natural and artificial components influencing flows along a set of stretches may
be represented by repeating the steps described above for a series of points along a river. By plotting the variation of
the natural and artificially-influenced versions of a chosen key descriptor (such as annual or monthly mean flow, or
Qn) against an axis of distance, a visual comparison may be made between the two. By evaluating the difference
between them, the net influence for the given flow-condition ay also be visualised along the course of the river.

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Illustration 10: Residual Flow Diagram: shows along-stream variation in natural and artificially-influenced annual
mean flow, and corresponding variation in inferred artificial component for this flow-condition.

Gauged sites
The gauged-sites module provides complimentary functionality to support the analysis of archived time-series flowrecords, at (potentially) any temporal resolution.
Hydrometric Analysis
The primary task is to provide a means of querying / summarising / analysing data to generate flow-regime statistics
such as flow-duration, flow-frequency, base-flow index, and storage / yield balances from the hydrograph. These are
presented in a similar manner to the equivalent statistics in the 'ungauged sites' module.

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Illustration 11: Showing hydrograph: the lower plot shows the full time-series, the upper plot details a shorter
interval of interest.

Future directions
As has been demonstrated, LowFlows2000 has been written as a generic environmental modelling shell which is
readily-extensible for implementing new environmental models. It is probable that the flexibility of the softwarearchitecture will encourage the extension of its functionality to support other aspects of water-resource and
envronmental management. Methods to automate the naturalisation of river flows at ungauged sites are currently being
implemented, and future progress on this theme will probably include generalised continuous-simulation models, for
simulating historical time series of flows within ungauged basins. Other developments will very probably cross the
division between water-quantity and water-quality: exploratory discussions are already under way to initiate projects to
include the first tranche of such models, which will support screening-level water-quality assessments. It is also likely
that the architecture will evolve to include better support for distributed storage, processing and usage, by selective reimplementation using web-based technologies.
The naturalisation functionality is presented here in more detail, as this work is currently being undertaken.
Flow Naturalisation
Before regulators can evaluate both the impacts of historical water use and future water-use scenarios, it is important
to establish a benchmark of the basic natural resource available in terms of the natural flow regime for the
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catchment. The basis for this is provided by long-term flow-records measured at gauging stations, many of which
are able to supply series of up to sixty years or more in length. However, these hydrographs represent the net flowregime, under the influence of the operation of artificial features within the watershed above the station: the
influence of these features have to be removed from the flow-series in order to estimate the underlying natural flowregime.
This is acheived by first defining the basin above the gauging-station of interest, and identifying / quantifying the
artificial influences operating within it, as described above for the ungauged-sites module. It is usually true that a
small number of influencing features of the various types will be responsible for the great majority of total influence
within that grouping: since measurements describing the operation of such features are not yet routinely held in
digital form at fine temporal resolution, this observation limits the data-input task to a manageable level. Having
identified the principal features and sourced daily (or, if these are not available, equivalent distributions of monthly)
return-data, these are filtered out of the gauged flow-series to provide an approximation to the underlying natural
hydrograph.
It is then relatively straightforward to support the re-combination of scenario influence-profiles, to obtain a model
hydrograph: by running the same analysis-routines as those used for the original, the full set of statistics may be
generated to describe the predicted flow regime. Plans exist to incorporate the estimation of time-lag, flowdissipation and losses, which relate primarily to the in-channel distance between the influencing feature and the
gauging station.

Summary
This paper has described the development of an environmental-modelling shell which couples both the requisite GIS
functionality and a universal database model for holding complex spatial and time-series data, without imposing the
comparatively high costs of using mainstream GIS componentry.
The first models implemented within the shell provide a responsive means of assessing both the available natural water
resources for an ungauged UK watershed, and the impact of water-use on that resource. These models generate a range
of primary river-flow descriptors, including estimates of mean flow and flow-duration statistics, at both monthly and
annual temporal resolutions, for ungauged sites on rivers in the United Kingdom.
However, the flexible and generic architecture of the software and data-model is aimed at supporting any number of
implementations, primarily in support of research, monitoring and management of all components of the natural
environment, and the authors are always interested in new ideas for such evolution!

References used
Boorman DB, Hollis JM, Lilly A. 1995. Institute of Hydrology Report 126. Hydrology of soil types: a hydrologically-based
Classification of the Soils of the United Kingdom.
Grindley J. 1970 estimation of mapping of evaporation
symposium on world water-balance, Vol 1 200-213, Pub num 92IASH-UNESco
Jenkins CT. 1970. Computation of rate and volume of stream depletion by wells. Techniques of Water Resources Investigations
of the USGS. Book 4. Hydrologist Analysis and Interpretation. US Govt. Printing Officer. Washington DC.
Moore RV. 1997. The Logical and Physical Design of the LOIS Database. Sciences of the Total Environment 194/195 (Special
LOIS Issue) 137-146, 1997.
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Morris D, Flavin R. 1990. A digital terrain model for hydrology. Proc. 4th International Symposium on Spatial Data Handling,
Zurich, Vol. 1, 250-262.
Morris D, Heerdegen R. 1988. Automatically derived catchment boundaries and channel networks and their hydrological
applications. Geomorphology 1, 131-141.
Sekulin AE, Bullock A, Gustard A. 1992. Rapid calculation of catchment boundaries using an automated river network overlay
technique. Wat. Resources. Res. 28, 8, 2101-2109.
Theis CV. 1941. The effects of a well on a nearby stream. EOS Trans. AGU Vol. 22 pp 734-738
Young AR, Croker KM, Sekulin AE. 2000. Novel techniques for characterising complex water use patterns within a network
based statistical hydrological model, 15pp. LOIS Special Volume - Sci.Tot.Environ. 251/252, 277-291
Young AR, Gustard A, Bullock A, Sekulin AE. Croker KM. 2000. A river network based hydrological model for predicting
natural and influenced flow statistics at ungauged sites, 12pp. LOIS Special Volume - Sci.Tot.Environ. 251/252, 293-304
Young AR, Holmes MGR. 2000. Low Flows Studies 2000 (in press). Tech Rpt 10: Estimation of low-flows statistics in the UK:
Q95 and MAM(7). UK Natural Environment Research Council
Young AR, Holmes MGR. 2000. Low Flows Studies 2000 (in press). Tech Rpt 11: Estimation of flow-duration curves in the
UK. UK Natural Environment Research Council

Authors
Andrew R Young BSc, MSc, DIC: Head of River Regimes Section
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Tel. +44 1491 838100: e-mail ary@ceh.ac.uk
Michael I Allchin BSc: President, Mapmatics Geospatial Solutions
Manor Lodge, Wedhampton, Devizes, Wiltshire, SN10 3QE, UK
Tel. +44 1380 848102: e-mail mia@mapmatics.co.uk: web-site www.mapmatics.co.uk
Matthew G R Holmes BE, BNatRes, GradIEAust: Water Resources Hydrologist
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Tel. +44 1491 838100: e-mail mgrh@ceh.ac.uk

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