Daily Markets Update

6 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Contagion becoming a reality & UK Election.
The EURUSD traded below 1.2800 for the first time since March 2009 as the recent bailout package failed to inspire Greek bond investors as
well as peripheral markets such as Spain, Portugal and Italy. Doubt is cast over the sustainability of the plan and likens it to Greece applying
for a new credit card so as to pay off its old credit cards debts. Markets were further spooked by the comments of ECB Council Member Weber,
he said that 'There is a threat of grave contagion effects for other member states in the monetary union and increasing negative feedback loop
effects on capital markets.'' If that was not enough to dampen sentiment the whole world bear witness to Greek rioting and social unrest where
3 people, of which one was a 32 year old pregnant woman, died from Molotov attacks in a Greek bank. Greek rioters also stormed and burned
government offices in which, ironically, contained documents of citizens which have outstanding tax debts to the Greek government. Overall
EURUSD price action yesterday was between 1.3000 - 1.2787
Today ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak following announcing interest rates, in which expectations show will leave them steady at
1.00%, while they will give us an outlook of the euro zone that is negatively affected from the debt crisis. Although the EU and IMF approved
the bailout plan worth 110 billion euros, yet there are expectations that this package might not be enough to tame the deficit, yesterday we
witnessed Chancellor Angela Merkel agree on Greece receiving the whole package aid to help the nation narrow deficit that is threatening the
outlook of the euro zone. Yesterday, we saw that Portugal's, Spanish and Greek bonds resume their decline while their credit rating continues
to be slashed on speculation that these governments will be able to hold the debt crisis from spreading further throughout the euro zone. The
package still has not been received by the Greek government, as during this week; Merkel will have both chambers of the nation agree on the
22.4 billion euros provided from Germany to support Greece. Lately, most companies have been posting earnings while economic data has
been hinting to the fact that economic conditions are improving in Europe therefore the deficit continues to hold back a full economic
recovery. The European Commission expects debt average in the euro zone might equal 84.7% of GDP this year while 88.5% next year, they
also expect GDP this year to expand 0.9% while 1.5% next year
Also for today, is one of the most memorable days in the UK economy, as everyone waits for the outcome of the elections as already polls are
leaning towards David Cameron leader of the Conservatives, who might be the next new government in the economy. The United Kingdom is
stuck between two stones, as on one side they have sluggish on economic growth and the other side, they have the highest budget deficit from
the Group of Seven nations as it is above 11% of GDP, which is making it difficult for the government to improve conditions. The nation growth
narrowed in the first quarter to 0.2% from the fourth quarter expansion of 0.4%. Growth levels were undermined in the first three months of
this year as a result of the coldest weather since three decades that kept Britons at home. The new government that will be elected is facing
great difficulties as they can not borrow to shore economic growth, more as they have the biggest annual budget deficit since WWII while it is
projected that the deficit will expand further to 12.1% of GDP during the fiscal year. Darling pledged to reduce deficit within four years, while
borrowing is promised to fall to 131 pounds during 2011 and 2012. David Cameron wants to reduce spending, so this will help the fiscal
position of the economy as it will halt the deficit from widening further.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 1.2768
Position Strategy: current position SHORT at 1.3182 stop profit 1.3020 target near 1.2682
The EUR/USD drops to 1.2737 so far today and at this point, the daily bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443
from 1.3817 at 1.2682. Break there will target a retest on key support zone of 1.2329/2456. On the upside, above 1.3020 minor resistance will
indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3114/3341 resistance zone and bring fall
resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at
1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. We'd expect fall from 1.5143 to break through
1.2329 low eventually. On the upside, break of 1.3692 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain
bearish and the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1424. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039
at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 1.1214
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT, Have taken profit on LONG position from 1.0925 at 1.1200
Enter LONG if we break 1.1246 with a stop 1.1021 target 1.1673
USD/CHF rises further to as high as 1.1246 so far today and the daily bias remains on upside. By breaking of the target at 1.1200 the 100%
projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 imply now a target at 1.1673 the 161.8% projection. On the downside, below 1.1021 minor support
will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0746/0923 support zone and bring rally resumption
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the last week's break of 1.0897 affirm the case that medium term rise from
2009 low of 0.9916 is still in progress. Also, note that the sustained trading above medium term falling trend line, light brown line on the chart,
allows affirm the view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. We'll now stay bullish as long as
1.0434 support holds and expect the rise from 0.9916 to extend towards 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. However, break of
1.0434 support will mix up the outlook again. Furthermore, we're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further
evidence from the markets before taking a stance.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 1.4326
Position Strategy:
Current position : SHORT at 1.4309 stop 1.4387 target 1.4143 first for 13969 next
Enter LONG if we break 1.4387 with a stop 1.4310 target 1.4466.
No Change, the EUR/CHF continued to stay inside tight range of 1.4294/4386 last week. Bias remains neutral and more sideway trading might
still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4292 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to the
downside for this support first. On the upside, a move above 1.4386 will suggest that stronger recovery might be seen and another high above
1.4466 would be seen before corrective rise from 1.4143 completes. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 1.4557
support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4135 (2008 low) confirms that whole long term down
trend from 1.6287 has resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside,
break of 1.4557 spike low resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1.5061
Position Strategy: Current position: SHORT at 1.5120 stop 1. 5186 target near 1.4783
Enter LONG if we break 1.5389 with a stop 1.5285 target near 1.5620
GBP/USD drops further to as low as 1.5020 so far. The daily bias remains on the downside. As noted before, consolidation from 1.4783 should
have completed at 1.5521 already and fall from there should now extend to retest 1.4783 low. A break of this last level will confirm that whole
decline from 1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456
to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337. On the upside, above 1.5186 minor resistance will
turn intraday bias and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.5389 resistance and bring fall resumption.
However, note that break of 1.5389 resistance will delay the bearish view and bring another high above 1.5521. But, even in such case, upside
should be limited by 50% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5620 to conclude the consolidation from 1.4783 and finally bring down trend
resumption.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to
down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161
and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 0.9044
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT, Have taken profit on SHORT position from 0.9131 at 0.9004
Enter LONG on a break of 0.9112 with a stop 0.9004 target 0.9205
Enter SHORT on a break of 0.8991 with stop 0.9112 target 0.8577
The AUD/USD's fall resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as low as 0.8991 so far. The daily bias remains on the downside. The target
at 0.9004 has been met and the break of this level have confirm our view that rise from 0.8577 is completed at 0.9380 and should then bring
further fall to retest 0.8577 support. On the upside, above 0.9112 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But
upside should be limited well below 0.9324 resistance and bring fall resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of medium term rising channel revives that case that medium term
rally from 2008 low of 6.008 is finished at 0.9404 already. Deeper decline should now be seen towards 0.8577 key support first (23.6%
retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.8603). Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and should target 0.7702/8262 support
zone next. On the upside, break of 0.9404 is needed to confirm medium term rally resumption. Otherwise, outlook will now be neutral at best.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 93.53
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT, have been stopped on LONG position from 94.70 at 93.82
Enter LONG on a break of 94.97 with a stop 93.82 target 97.06
The USD/JPY's break of 93.82 minor support indicates that a short term top is in place at 94.97. Also, considering bearish divergence condition
on Stochastic and RSI, rise from 88.13 should be completed too. The daily bias is now flipped back to the downside and further decline should
be seen towards 91.59 cluster support (50% retracement of 88.13 to 94.97 at 91.55). On the upside, break of 94.97 is needed to confirm rally
resumption. Otherwise, short term outlook is neutral at best.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend form 124.13 is
completed at 84.81 on bullish convergence condition in daily AO and Stochastic. We'd expect stronger rally towards 101.43/65 medium term
resistance zone for confirming this bullish case. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is
finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in weekly oscillators; the long term
down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also
break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway
pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 119.57
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT, Have taken profit on SHORT position from 122.33 at 119.64
Enter LONG at 120.70 stop at 119.64 target 121.70
The EUR/JPY dives to as low as 118.85 today so far and the break of 119.64 support confirms medium term fall resumption. The daily bias
remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to next key support level of 112.10 low. On the upside, above 120.70 minor
resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 122.35 support turned resistance and bring fall
resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of 119.64 support revives that case that recovery from 112.10,
which is treated as correction to the long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, has completed at 139.21 already. Outlook will now
remain bearish as long as 127.88 resistance zone and we'd expect an eventual break of 112.10 low.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (00 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should
develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10. Second wave from 118.10 might still be in progress but after all,
we'd expect another long term fall to 118.10 first and to 112.10 after the third wave starts.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 140.67
Position Strategy:Current position : SHORT at 142.96 stop profit at 142. 28 target 139.03/36
Enter LONG at 145.94 stop at 143.3 target 150.68
The GBP/JPY drops further to as low as 140.22 today. The daily bias remains on the downside for 139.03/36 (50% retracement of 139.03 to
145.94 at 139.03). Break there will target a test on 132.13/134.53 support zone. On the upside, above 142.28 minor resistance will turn
intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. However, note that break of 145.94 high is needed to confirm that rise from 132.13 has resumed.
Otherwise, short term outlook is neutral at best.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger decline
from 2007 high of 251.09, no doubt. Question is on whether such consolidation/correction from 118.81 is completed at 163.05 already. The
structure of the fall from 163.05 to 132.13 is not supporting that it's resuming the down trend. However, rebound from 132.13 is not strong
enough to take it through the weekly long term trend indicator yet (now at 145.09). We are staying neutral for the moment.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 1.0347
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at 1.0287 stop 1.0280 target 1.0454
The USD/CAD rises further to as high as 1.0408 so far today- The daily bias remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.0779 to 0.9929
at 1.0454. Decisive break there will bring stronger rise to test 1.0779 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0280 minor support will turn
intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0100 support and bring another rise.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, In the bigger picture, with 1.0779 resistance intact, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in
favor to continue and would probably target 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444. However, note that the structure of
such fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective. Hence, the most bearish case might be that it's the second leg of consolidation that started at
2007 low of 0.9056. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9444 and 0.9056 to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.0779 will in
turn indicate that fall from 1.3063 has completed and will turn outlook bullish for 1.1723 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading
below the long trend indicators now at 1.0153, green line on the chart, again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from
1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay
neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 1177.7
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1160.55 stop 1192.8 target 1084.8
Gold edged higher to 1192.8 but once again failed to sustain above 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 and weakened. ,
The daily bias is turned neutral to mildly bearish. The break of 1160.7 minor support argue that rise from 1084.8 is perhaps finished. This will
also serve as the first alert that whole rally from 1044.5 has completed too. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1084.8 support for
confirmation. On the upside, a move above 1192.8 will bring another rise. However, as we're retreating rise from 1044.5 as the second wave of
a three wave consolidation from 1227.5, we'd expect strong resistance between 1186 and 1227.5 to conclude the rally from 1044.5 and bring
another fall.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's
the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is
completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of
1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation from 1227.5
completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below
1044 before completing consolidations from 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 80.14
Current position : FLAT, have taken profit on SHORT position from 85.15 at 80.75
Crude oil dropped sharply to as low as 78.85 so far and rebound after in direction of the 80.53 resistance. But, yesterday, by the break of
80.53, argue that whole rise from 69.05 is completed with a double top reversal pattern (87.05, 87.15) and turn outlook bearish for deeper
decline in direction of 69.05. On the upside, above 83.48 minor resistance will indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed and will flip intraday
bias back to the upside for retesting the highs.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole
correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and
should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to
33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled
out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will
be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still
prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Thursday, April the 6sd, 2010, level 10853.6
Current position SHORT at 10914 stop 10955 target 10750 first for 10660/30 next
Enter LONG on a clear break of 11196.65. stop 11065 target 11290 first
The Dow is still on a consolidation with a double top reversal pattern on a 4 hours chart. The daily bias is still on the downside. As noted
before, by breaking 10914.15 support, the trigger, for the continuation of the correction with a minimum target at 10750.5 and full target at
10632.2 a level very near of the 38.2% retracement from 9789.9 to 11205.158 at 10657.9. Now we are around the 23.6% retracement from
9789.9 to 11205.158 at 10869 and bring some support now a clear bear of this level will target first 10750.5.On the upside, on a clear break of
11196.65 will suggest that the correction is perhaps over and we are heading perhaps for 11290 level next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I of Cycle
wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold
the 10% correction, and we are now Major wave 5.Following our count: we are perhaps still in 3 of 5 of I and with the clear of 11135.9 we may
reach 11211.77. For remember Wave I is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that
may be very profound.
TRACK Since April

RECORD 16th, 2010
Current Closed P&L
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Pips Total P&L pips
EUR/USD Short 1.3182 1.2768 1.302 1.2682 414 247 661
CHF/USD Flat 0 241 241
EUR/CHF Short 1.431 1.4326 1.4387 1.4143 -16 -16
GBP/USD Short 1.512 1.5061 1.5210 1.4783 59 102 161
AUD/USD Flat 0 -18 -18
USD/JPY Flat 0 73 73
EUR/JPY Flat 0 238 238
GBP/JPY Short 142.96 140.67 142.28 139.03/36 229 -97 132
USD/CAD Long 1.0287 1.0347 1.028 1.0454 60 207 267
TOTAL 746 993 1,739

Current Open P&L
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts
Gold Short 1160.55 1177.7 1192.8 1084.8 -17.15 3.95 -13.20
Oil Flat 0.00 6.11 6.11
Dow Jones Short 10914 10853.6 10955 10750 60.40 533.6 594.00
Economic Calendar
Thursday, May 6, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- GBP UK General Election -- --
01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Mar 0.7% -1.4%
01:30 AUD Retail Sales Ex InflationQ/Q Q1 0.3% 1.1%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar -2125M -1924M
05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y Apr -- 37.2%
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Apr 0.8% 0.1%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Apr 1.3% 1.4%
08:30 GBP PMI Services Apr 57.0 56.5
08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) Apr -- $80M
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. M/M Mar 1.4% 0.0%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. Y/Y Mar 21.0% 24.5%
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar -- -0.5%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P 2.5% 6.9%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P -0.5% -5.9%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 1) 440K 448K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 24) -- 4645K
13:20 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks in Chicago Illinois -- --
13:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Chicago -- --

Illinois
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr -- 57.8
14:30 USD ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y Apr -- 9.0%
14:50 USD Fed's Patrick Parkinson in Chicago Illinois -- --
17:00 USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak in St Louis -- --

Missouri
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index Apr -- 48.7
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr -- 2.1%
Friday, May 7, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- GBP New Car Registrations Y/Y Apr -- 26.6%
01:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement --
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. Apr 4.1% 4.1%
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 4.1% 4.2%
06:45 EUR French Trade Balance (EUR) Mar -- -3.6B
06:45 EUR French Central Government Balance (EUR) Mar -- -21.8B
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Mar 2.8% 3.1%
08:30 GBP PPI Input n.s.a. M/M Apr 1.0% 3.6%
08:30 GBP PPI Input n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 13.1% 10.1%
08:30 GBP PPI Output n.s.a. M/M Apr 0.5% 0.9%
08:30 GBP PPI Output n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 4.8% 5.0%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core n.s.a. M/M Apr 0.3% 0.7%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 3.5% 3.6%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. M/M Mar 1.5% 0.0%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. 6.4% 5.8%
Y/Y Mar
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 20.0K 17.9K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 8.2% 8.2%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Apr 180K 162K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Apr 9.7% 9.7%
12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls Apr 90K 123K
12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Apr 15K 17K
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning M/M Apr 0.1% -0.1%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning Y/Y Apr 1.7% 1.8%
12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours Apr 34.1 34.0
16:30 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks in Wilmington -- --

Delaware
17:15 USD Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Speaks -- --

in Chicago Illinois
19:00 USD Consumer Credit Mar -$3.0B -$11.5B
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Daily Markets Update

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6 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Contagion becoming a reality & UK Election.

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

TRACK Since April

EUR/USD Short 1.3182 1.2768 1.302 1.2682 414 247 661

CHF/USD Flat 0 241 241

EUR/CHF Short 1.431 1.4326 1.4387 1.4143 -16 -16

GBP/USD Short 1.512 1.5061 1.5210 1.4783 59 102 161

AUD/USD Flat 0 -18 -18

EUR/JPY Flat 0 238 238

GBP/JPY Short 142.96 140.67 142.28 139.03/36 229 -97 132

USD/CAD Long 1.0287 1.0347 1.028 1.0454 60 207 267

TOTAL 746 993 1,739

Gold Short 1160.55 1177.7 1192.8 1084.8 -17.15 3.95 -13.20

Oil Flat 0.00 6.11 6.11

Thursday, May 6, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- GBP UK General Election -- --

01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Mar 0.7% -1.4%

01:30 AUD Retail Sales Ex InflationQ/Q Q1 0.3% 1.1%

01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar -2125M -1924M

05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y Apr -- 37.2%

07:15 CHF CPI M/M Apr 0.8% 0.1%

07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Apr 1.3% 1.4%

08:30 GBP PMI Services Apr 57.0 56.5

08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) Apr -- $80M

11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%

12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar -- -0.5%

12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P 2.5% 6.9%

12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P -0.5% -5.9%

12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 1) 440K 448K

12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 24) -- 4645K

13:20 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks in Chicago Illinois -- --

13:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Chicago -- --

14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr -- 57.8

14:30 USD ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y Apr -- 9.0%

14:50 USD Fed's Patrick Parkinson in Chicago Illinois -- --

17:00 USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak in St Louis -- --

23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index Apr -- 48.7

23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr -- 2.1%

Friday, May 7, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- GBP New Car Registrations Y/Y Apr -- 26.6%

01:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement --

05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. Apr 4.1% 4.1%

05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 4.1% 4.2%

06:45 EUR French Trade Balance (EUR) Mar -- -3.6B

06:45 EUR French Central Government Balance (EUR) Mar -- -21.8B

07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Mar 2.8% 3.1%

08:30 GBP PPI Input n.s.a. M/M Apr 1.0% 3.6%

08:30 GBP PPI Input n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 13.1% 10.1%

08:30 GBP PPI Output n.s.a. M/M Apr 0.5% 0.9%

08:30 GBP PPI Output n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 4.8% 5.0%

11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 20.0K 17.9K

11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 8.2% 8.2%

12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Apr 180K 162K

12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Apr 9.7% 9.7%

12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls Apr 90K 123K

12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Apr 15K 17K

12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning M/M Apr 0.1% -0.1%

12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning Y/Y Apr 1.7% 1.8%