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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................................3
Risk Profile ..........................................................................................................................................5
Investment Analysis ............................................................................................................................5
Capital structure .................................................................................................................................5
D i v i de n d po l i c y .................................................................................................................................7
V a l u a t i o n ...........................................................................................................................................7
Introduction ....................................................................................................................................7
Brief description of the companies .....................................................................................................8
Fatima Fertilizer .............................................................................................................................8
About the company ....................................................................................................................8
Final Products..............................................................................................................................9
Intermediary Products ................................................................................................................9
Cost estimates & Plant Performance ..........................................................................................9
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited ................................................................................................ 11
About the Company ................................................................................................................. 11
Largest Urea producer ............................................................................................................. 11
Production Efficiency .............................................................................................................. 12
MIRPUR MATHELO-Urea Production (met Tons/Year) .......................................................... 14
Vast distribution networks an important plus point ............................................................... 14
Low leverage levels .................................................................................................................. 14
Gas curtailment more than offset by price hike ...................................................................... 15
Mulling purchase of Agritech Ltd ............................................................................................. 15
Wind power project expected to commence in 1qCy12 ......................................................... 15
Benefits from Engros cost increase and margin push ............................................................ 16
Management compensation ........................................................................................................ 16
Social responsibility ........................................................................................................................ 18
FFC CSR ....................................................................................................................................... 18
Relief ........................................................................................................................................ 18
Rehabilitation .......................................................................................................................... 19
Fatima Fertilizer CSR .................................................................................................................. 19
Fatima Fertilizer Welfare Hospital (FFWH) .............................................................................. 20
Clean Development Mechanism ............................................................................................ 20
Market risk and return .................................................................................................................. 20
Slope of the regression Beta ..................................................................................................... 22
R - squared .................................................................................................................................. 22
S t a n da r d e r r o r s ......................................................................................................................... 22
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
21% of Pakistans GDP is backed by the agriculture sector and a hefty 62% of countrys population is
directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. The Agriculture sectors strong linkages with the rest of
the economy are not fully captured in the statistics. While on the one hand, the sector is a primary
supplier of raw materials to downstream industry, contributing substantially to Pakistans exports, on
the other, it is a large market for industrial products such as fertilizer, pesticides, tractors and
agricultural implements. A thriving agriculture sector is also essential to the prosperity of
manufacturing sector of the economy which mainly consists of agro based industries such as textiles,
sugar, food etc.
Fertilizers are substances added to soil to improve the growth of plants, as well as their yield. Fertilizer
industry in Pakistan is dominated by two main products; urea (nitrogen based product, accounting for
66% market share) and DAP (phosphorus based product, having 19% market share). Countrys annual
urea demand is approximately 6.5mn tons with local manufacturing capacity being 5.0mn tons. Delta
demand is met through imports. While Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim is the sole producer of DAP in
Pakistan, accounting for 42% of local DAP market share, whereas the remaining 58% demand is met
through imports.
Due to this high dependence ratio on agriculture sector, Government has always maintained a
transparent and consistent policy for fertilizer industry regarding, a) fresh investments, b) input prices,
c) supply of inputs. After domestic consumers, fertilizer industry is placed at priority list when it comes
to rationing of gas. The largest domestic urea producing companies receive their gas supply from Mari
Gas field. Mari field gas is not pipeline quality due to which there is limited risk of gas diversion, even if
there is shortage of gas in other segments.
The government sets minimum purchase prices of major crops (wheat, paddy, sugarcane). In the
absence of a commodity exchange, support prices ensure a fair return to the farmers, thus giving them
incentives to invest in these crops. Besides this, the farmer income is exempt from corporate and
general sales tax.
Pakistan is currently deficient in urea production by 1.5mn tons, but the scenario will change in the
next few months once Fatima Fertilizer and Engro plants comes online. The total urea capacity of two
plants will be around 1.8mn tons. The concerns that the country may face excess capacity in domestic
market leading to under utilizations or price wars is exaggerated as new urea capacity of 1.8mn tons is
only 0.3mn tons above the current deficit. The gas load shedding is estimated to reduce domestic
fertilizer production by 0.3-0.6mn tons at least. Looking at current local demand supply balance,
imports, future expansions and gas curtailment, it is likely that Pakistan will face urea shortage from
2012 and onwards on a conservative basis.
Flash floods so far depict a devastating picture. While final numbers would take time to shape up, the
situation is dire and macro targets for FY11E are destined to change. In a nutshell we see demand for
both urea & DAP will be soft in 2010E and should correct in 2011E. The last instance of excessive
flooding in Pakistan (c. Sep 1992 i.e., FY93) resulted in FY93 agricultural growth of -5.3% (from +9.5%
Page 3 of 47
in FY92). Likewise, the year following 1992 floods, nitrogen application growth slowed down to +1%
while phosphate demand slipped to -5%. A potential positive for the longer term is that the present
increase in dams water level may actually bode well for agricultural growth and fertilizer demand one
year out where lower than mean water availability has stunted growth in major crops in the last couple
of years.
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RISK PROFILE
We used beta to estimate the exposure of each company to market risk. The results reflect the
fundamental characteristics of each company and in particular variance of earnings and leverage.
The riskiest company as measured by historical regression beta is Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim and the
least risky is Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC). Because of the historical character of the regressions beta
and high standard errors of the estimates we used bottom-up betas in our further analysis.
In addition, returns on capital of each company with relation to its risk have been calculated. The top
performing companies were Fauji Fertilizer Limited and Fatima Fertilizer Limited (FFL).
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
We used accounting measures of return to analyze the return on typical investment projects
at which the companies are investing in fertilizer sector, such as ROC and ROE. Fauji Fertilizer Bin
Qasim (FFBL) proved to be the company with highest returns on equity. In addition we assessed the
future prospects of each company, analyzing the sustainability of its competitive advantages. This
analysis was used as a basis for the valuation of the
Firms.
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
The three companies adopt very different policies with regards to their capital structure, ranging
from the highly over levered FFBL with debt ratio of 75:25 to highly equity financed FFC with debt
ratio of 15:85. Taking into account the potential benefits and disadvantages from the use of debt
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we computed optimal capital structures for each firm and assessed the impact on the WACC from
moving from the current capital structure to the optimal. The result was an average of 3-5%change
in the WACC value of the firms, most of this decrease comes from FFC.
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DIVIDEND POLICY
All three companies are dividend paying companies, although for very different reason,
FFC and FFC Bin Qasim pays out all almost profit in its dividend .This exhibits a great potential to
invest in both of these companies for short term gains. On the other hand Fatima Fertilizer
Limited (FFL) pays half of its profits as dividends.
VALUATION
The results from our valuations are presented in the table below:
FIGURE 2: VALUATION
The valuation models are based on the results from our analysis as presented in the following pages.
INTRODUCTION
The current report examines major trends in the Fertilizer sector focusing on 3 major production
companies Fatima Fertilizer Limited, Fauji Fertilizer Company and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
Limited. The companies reviewed operate in same businesses, Fertilizer production industry,
utilize different business models and are at different stage of their life cycle. The purpose of the
report is to analyze different aspects of their corporate finance policies and to assess the effect of
these policies on the value the managements of these firms create for their shareholders.
Summary information for each company is presented in Figure 1.
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Throughout the report analysis has been presented based on information gathered from
various public sources, including statutory filings with regulatory authorities in the respective
jurisdiction, company annual reports, management presentation and other publicly available
information. We have tried to acknowledge each source of information where possible. Figures
and data that are not referenced to any source has been result of our own analysis.
For computational ease the analysis for each company has been undertaken in the reporting
currency under which the company reports annual results.
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FIGURE 4
CAN and Urea have already started production. NP plant is projected to start commercial production from
December this year. The project is located on 947 Acres of land acquired at Plant site Mukhtar Garh
Sadiqabad, Rahim Yar Khan in the Punjab Province.
FINAL PRODUCTS
INTERMEDIARY PRODUCTS
at 69.4k tons and 23.9k tons. As per the mgmt., current utilization of both urea and CAN plants stands at
107% and 94% respectively.
Page 10 of 47
Most widely used fertilizer in the country. Fertilizer is white in color, free flowing, readily soluble in
water and both contain 46% Nitrogen. Because of its high solubility, it is suitable for solution
fertilizers.
SONA DAP
is the most concentrated phosphate fertilizer containing 46% P 2O5 and 18% Nitrogen. It is the
widely used phosphate fertilizer in the world as well as Pakistan. The solubility of DAP is more than
95%. Its nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (1: 2.5) makes it an ideal fertilizer, to meet the initial
requirement of most of the crops.
SONA SOP
This fertilizer is an important source of Potash, which is a quality nutrient for production of crops
especially fruits and vegetables. Potash improves the resistance of the plants against pests, diseases
and stresses like water.
LARGEST UREA PRODUCER
FFC is currently the largest urea manufacturer in the country (Engro, after its 1.3mn ton expansion
will overtake FFC to become the largest urea manufacturer in 2010) with a market share of 42%.
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The company has a production capacity of approximately 1.9mn tons. Being the largest urea
manufacturer, FFC benefits from economies of scale, and as a result has the best gross, operating
and net margins in the industry.
PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
GOTH MACHHI-Urea Production (met Tons/Year)
Base Unit
Expansion Unit
Total
Years
Production
Capacity
Factor
(% Production
Design)
1982
325,452*
93.86
325,452
93.86
1983
566,771
99.43
566,771
99.43
1984
589,258
103.37
589,258
103.37
1985
598,694
105.03
598,694
105.03
Capacity
Factor
Design)
(% Production
Capacity
Factor
Design)
(%
Page 12 of 47
1986
594,901
104.36
594,901
104.36
1987
632,079
110.89
632,079
110.89
1988
637,737
111.88
637,737
111.88
1989
632,972
111.04
632,972
111.04
1990
652,665
114.50
652,665
114.50
1991
629,266
110.39
629,266
110.39
1992
648,178
102.55
648,178
102.55
1993
657,376
94.58
477,339**
95.85
1,134,715
100.41
1994
678,114
97.57
659,526
103.86
1,337,640
100.57
1995
680,062
97.85
700,031
110.24
1,380,093
103.76
1996
710,862
102.28
695,749
109.56
1,406,611
105.76
1997
773,048
111.22
734,275
115.63
1,507,323
113.33
1998
742,599
106.84
682,969
107.55
1,425,568
107.18
1999
726,723
104.56
734,689
115.69
1,461,412
109.88
2000
729,864
105.01
695,938
109.59
1,42,5802
107.20
2001
737,607
106.13
756,417
119.12
1,494,024
112.33
2002
801,825
115.43
713,889
112.38
1,515,714
113.97
Page 13 of 47
Expansion Unit
Years
Production
Capacity
Factor
Design)
2002
59,886*
102.91
(% Production
Capacity
Factor
Design)
-
Total
(% Production
590,886
Capacity Factor
(% Design)
102.91
Source: http://www.ffc.com.pk/contents/manfacturing.htm
Page 14 of 47
Page 15 of 47
MANAGEMENT COMPENSATION
Management compensation does not appear to be an issue at any of the companies
analyzed. All CEO, directors and executives are getting market competitive compensations. None
of the CEOs own a significant stake in their companies. Details about the CEOs, their
compensations and the composition of the Board are presented in Figure below.
Page 16 of 47
FIGURE 8
Page 17 of 47
SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
FFC CSR
For Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited, social responsibility means facilitating communities and
empowering its people. Sustainability shall always remain quintessential for the performance of
CSR. Historically, FFC has always been socially a responsible corporate entity. The Company
started its CSR per se as early as in 1982 by introducing Agri-Services thus helping in poverty
alleviation of common farmer and assisting them in sustained empowerment. Gradually FFC
started interventions in most of the defined sectors and has developed a history of about 30 years
of contributions to the society. FFC, further plans to bring sustainability in its interventions and
desires to achieve international standards by aligning CSR with our business objectives. FFC is also
committed to improve quality and quantum of its interventions by maximizing on the available
resources.
Since FFC has become member of covenants like UNGC, the CSR has to be aligned with
international guidelines. It is necessary to standardize the interventions and monitor the quality
of interventions at a central level. We need to stay committed to its principles. Keeping the vision
of responsible corporate entity in mind, FFC has moved in this direction. FFC has made quality as
its core value when it comes to CSR intervention at any level, and in future this will remain as the
prime objective.
RELIEF
Page 18 of 47
In districts Rahim Yar Khan and Ghotki, flood had crippled the lives of people of the area.
FFC thus took the task of shouldering its share of responsibility initially in flood relief effort
for the affected natives of District Rahim Yar Khan and Ghotki. Some of these relief efforts
were:
Tents/ shelters
Crockery
FFC employees voluntarily made remarkable contribution in their respective plant sites
which amounts to millions. Food, drinking water, beddings, shelters and clothing was
provided to the flood affectees in the relief phase of the operation. Medical teams from
FFC medical units performed day night service for the flood affectees in Rahim Yar Khan
and Ghotki, saving many precious lives.
REHABILITATION
FFC has taken up the challenge of reconstructing 3 villages of districts Rahim Yar Khan and
Ghotki. The intervention is planned in Reconstructing of Houses, Education, Health,
Shelter, Water and Sanitation and Infrastructure. This project of rehabilitation and
reconstruction will cost 102 million (PKR) out of which 50% will be contributed by FFC.
A project has been devised to construct Houses, water supply, pathways & sanitation
facility for the affected natives of Muaza Chacharan, Mohib Shah (Rahim Yar Khan) and
Chuttoo Chachar (Ghotki). FFC while acting as a responsible corporate entity has lead from
the front in this time of national grief and has played an exemplary role for other entities
to come forward and contribute their share.
FATIMA FERTILIZER CSR
At Fatima Fertilizer Company, CSR revolves around a self-regulating mechanism and adheres to the laws,
ethical standards and internal values.
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
Fatima
40.00%
FFC
20.00%
FFBL
-20.00%
-40.00%
3-Jan-12
3-Feb-12
3-Mar-12
3-Apr-12
3-May-12
3-Jun-12
3-Jul-12
3-Aug-12
3-Sep-12
3-Oct-12
3-Nov-12
3-Dec-12
3-Jan-13
3-Feb-13
3-Mar-13
3-Apr-13
3-May-13
3-Jun-13
3-Jul-13
3-Aug-13
3-Sep-13
3-Oct-13
3-Nov-13
3-Dec-13
0.00%
KSE
-60.00%
FIGURE 10
In general, none of the three firms did better than the market. These results w e r e exp ected for all
three as due to severe economic crises fertilizer sector facing as a whole.
To analyze
the market risk of the three firms we regressed their returns against broad based
market index and used the coefficient of the regression as a measure of market risk. We u s e d t w o
year daily returns for t h e r e g r e s s i o n . The choice of index reflected the marginal investor in each
company, assuming that each
investor
market.
Focuses on the regression coefficient (beta), the regression constant (alpha) and the regression Rsquared. The results from the regressions are summarized in Figure below
Risk profile
Regression Beta
Reference index
Fatima
0.72
KSE-100
12.8%
-0.0081
R2 of Regression
Standard Error of
Beta
FFC
0.55
KSE-100
FFBL
0.83
KSE-100
17.54%
12.8%
-0.0015
4.044%
12.8%
-0.00133
19.37%
0.0131
0.0212
0.0142
R - SQUARED
R-squared of the regression provides information as to what proportion of the variability in
returns could be explained by the regression. The market non-diversifiable risk represents 17.54%,
4.044 % and 19.37% for Fatima, FFC, and FFBL respectively. The remainder is company specific,
non-diversifiable risk. While the relatively high R-squared for Fatima and FFBL could be explained
by the fact that they were small, fast growing companies during the observed period and were
facing numerous company specific challenges in establishing their business models.
STANDARD ERRORS
The standard errors of the regression betas appear to be in between 1-2%, suggesting a 1%
interval for the possible values of the beta..
COST OF EQUITY
The cost of equity has been calculate using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and includes the following
inputs:
Risk free rate of return (Rf) -in estimating the cost of equity we have used long term
government bond to come up with the risk free. The c u r r e n t 10 year bond yields were used i n
the analysis. The 10 year m a t u r i t y of t h e T r e a s u r y bond used reflects the l o n g term investment
horizon of t h e l i k e l y projects. Other periods should be considered for s h o r t e r term p r o j e c t s .
Market risk premium (Rp)- this measure reflects the excess return to which an investor is
entitled as a compensation for the higher risk he / she undertakes by investing in risky security rather
than a riskless one
Cost of Equity
Risk Free Rate
Beta
Risk Premium
Country Risk
Fatima Fertilizer
12.8%
0.72
7%
-
Cost of Equity
17.86 %
Fauji Fertilizer
12.8%
0.55
7%
16.63%
FFBL
12.8%
0.83
7%
18.63%
COST OF DEBT
The other important component of the cost of capital is the cost of debt. It reflects the
perceived risk of the companies by lenders and debt investors, or its credit risk. The two
components of credit risk are default risk (or the probability that a company will cease making
payments as agreed in the credit agreement) and non-recovery risk (or the probability of
recovery of the capital provided, once the company goes in default).
The cost of debt for each company has two components a risk free rate of return and
compensation for the credit risk associated with the company. In estimating the credit risk for
each company we took __ approaches:
After obtaining the respective credit ratings we looked at the credit default spreads
corresponding to each rating, which is a measure of the risk premium required. For all companies
we used the credit default spread embedded in current yields of publicly traded debt. We
computed the cost of debt for each by adding the default spread to the risk free rate for the
respective company. The results are presented in Figure below.
Cost of debt
Pre-tax Cost of Debt
Fatima Fertilizer
12.8%
35.00%
8.32%
FFC
12.5%
12.50%
8.13%
FFBL
12.5%
30.00%
8.13%
24
After computing the cost of debt for each firm we computed the after tax cost of debt. The after tax cost of
debt reflects the fact that interest payable on debt is deductible from the operating income for tax purposes
and results in tax savings for the firms.
25
COST OF CAPITAL
67,200
FFC
143,762
BAA
FFBL
37,364
FIGURE 14
Comparing the debt ratios for the analyzed companies to the industry average we observe
that FFBLs financial leverage is higher than that of the other two companies in the sector.
These inputs are used in computing the cost of capital for each firm. The weighted
average cost of capital is computed as follows:
W A C C = K e x E / ( D + E ) + K d x D /( E + D )
The inputs and results are summarized in
26
The company with highest cost of capital is Fauji Fertilizer. The lowest cost of capital,
i s that of F a u j i F e r t i l i z e r B i n Q a s i m .
The ability of each firm to grow and create value for its stockholders ultimately
depends on its management capability to identify and undertake projects that generate
returns exceeding the cost of capital employed. In this section we will analyze the quality of
the projects that the three companies undertake ad review the past performance of the
companies as measured by indicators such as Return on Capital (ROC) and Return on Equity
(ROE).
MEASURING RETURNS
27
FUTURE OUTLOOK
The ability of any of the companies to generate positive excess returns depends on its
competitive advantages and their sustainability in the medium and long term. In this section we
look at some key indicators for the Fertilizer sector, which could help us to understand how the
companies are positioned for the future.
28
FAUJI FERTILIZER
FATIMA FERTILIZER
29
CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, we believe that in the medium term FFC and FFBL can sustain competitive
advantages which will allow the company to earn return on capital in excess of its cost of capital.
Fatima Fertilizer in the other hand has been keen to invest in expansion programs aimed to
increase its capacity.
30
Summary of the current debt structure of all three companies has been given below. As can be
observed, the three companies employ very different kinds of debt:
FFBL
FFC has outstanding a variety of debt notes, from bank debt. On one hand this is driven by the
necessity to tailor the debt to match the companys cash flow profile and risk, which is very
specific. On the other hand this is a symptom of the financial difficulties the company has been
going through and the need to raise capital in any form it was available.
FATIMA
fatima also has debt outstanding and this is a reflection of both the early stage of the life cycle is in and
its ability to generate cash flows, thus funding growth largely with internal funds. we expect the financing
mix to change as the company continues to expand.
FFBL
ffbls debt is almost all made up by loan in the form of assistance form government of Pakistan.
31
Fatima
Fauji Fertilizer
FIGURE 17
48
FIGURE 18
FIGURE 19
IX.
49
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
All three companies that we are analyzing, all of them pay dividends:
FFC has kept a stable dividend policy over the past several years, with an average
dividend payout ratio of 90%.
FIGURE 20
50
FATIMA FERTILIZER
The company generates and still have a dividend payout ratio of 65%. the companys
ROC is higher than its cost of capital and it is rapidly accumulating excess cash.
FIGURE 21
VALUATION MODELS
Based on the analysis presented above we proceeded to perform valuation of the
market value of the equity of all three companies. Table below summarizes the choice of
our valuation model and the results.
FIGURE 22
The choice of growth period reflects the sustainability of competitive advantages of each
firm as outlined in above Investment Returns and Future prospects.
VALUATION MODEL AND INPUTS.
The valuation assumptions are.
Sales growth is only due to increase in prices due to inflation. Terminal Growth is minimal for all three
firms. Firm will refinance its existing loan at the same cost of financing.
FATIMA FERTILIZER:
FIGURE 23
FIGURE 24
FIGURE 25
FIGURE 26
FIGURE 27
FIGURE 28
FIGURE 29
APPENDIX
FATIMA FERTILIZER BALANCE SHEET
FIGURE 30
FIGURE 31
FIGURE 32
FIGURE 33
FIGURE 34
FIGURE 35
FIGURE 36
FIGURE 37
FIGURE 38