Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Contact Details
Emma Jincheng Zhang (Weeks 3-5)
jin.zhang@unsw.edu.au
Rm 302
Consultation hours: Wednesdays 10-12pm
Outline
Capital structure
Bond valuation
1.
2.
Bond terminology
Coupon bonds
Zero coupon bonds
Determinants of the yield to maturity
a)
b)
c)
d)
a)
b)
c)
d)
1. Capital Structure
Equity valuation
3.
Equity terminology
Dividend discount model
a)
b)
i.
c)
Capital structure
Bonds (debt)
Ordinary shares (equity)
Preference shares (equity)
=+
9/03/2016
Residual value
10
11
2. Bond Valuation
12
9/03/2016
Bond terminology
Bond terminology
14
Coupon bonds
Coupon bonds
t=0
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=4
t=n
$C
$C
$C
$C
$C
$FV
1
1
1+
1+
16
t=0
Solution:
=5
= 10% $1,000 = $100
17
= 11%
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=4
t=5
$100
$100
$100
$100
$100
$1,000
= 1 1+ + 1+
100
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.11
1 + 0.11 5
1 + 0.11 5
= 369.59 + 593.45 = $963.04
18
9/03/2016
=
=
7% $1,000
2
8%
2
= $35
= 4%
t=4
t = 14
$35
$35
$35
$35
$35
$1,000
= 1
+
1+
1+
35
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.04
1 + 0.04 14
1 + 0.04 14
= 369.71 + 577.48 = $947.18
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=4
t = 21
$C
$C
$C
$C
$C
$1,000
Solution:
= 2 10.5 = 21
6.9%
2
$1,070 =
= 3.45%
21
1
1
1+
1
1
0.0345
1 + 0.0345
= $39.24
1+
21
1,000
1 + 0.0345
21
22
t=3
20
t=2
= 2 7 = 14
19
t=1
$1,000
$39.24 =
2
2 $39.24
=
= 7.85%
$1,000
23
Bond trades
at
Premium
Par
Discount
24
9/03/2016
1
+
1+
1+
80
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.08
1 + 0.08 10
1 + 0.08
= 536.81 + 463.19 = $1,000
The coupon rate is 6%. Since yield to maturity > coupon rate, the bond
is selling at a discount.
26
The coupon rate is 10%. Since yield to maturity < coupon rate, the bond
is selling at a premium.
1
+
1+
1+
100
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.08
1 + 0.08 10
1 + 0.08
= 671.01 + 463.19 = $1,134.20
10
27
The coupon rate is fixed and simply determines what the bonds
coupon payments will be. The yield to maturity is what the market
demands on the issue, and it will fluctuate through time.
You cannot determine if a bond is a good investment based on
whether it is selling at a discount, par or premium.
Example: Consider the following bonds. Each bond has 10 years to
maturity and pays coupons annually.
=
1+
10%
Bond C
10%
Coupon payment
$80
$100
$120
Face value
$1,000
$1,000
$1,000
Price
$877.11
$1,000
$1122.89
Discount
Par
Premium
1+
$1,000
$497 =
1+ 5
1/5
$1,000
=
1 = 15%
$497
=
r = Per-period yield
n = Number of periods
FV = Face value
29
Bond B
10%
Bond A
YTM
28
Zero-coupon bonds
10
10
25
1
+
1+
1+
60
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.08
1 + 0.08 10
1 + 0.08
= 402.60 + 463.19 = $865.79
9/03/2016
1 + = 1 + (1 + )
Approximation:
31
32
1.
2.
33
34
Both Bond Bill and Bond Ted have 8% coupons, make halfyearly payments, have a $1,000 face value, and are priced
at par value. Bond Bill has three years to maturity,
whereas Bond Ted has twenty years to maturity. Which
bond has more interest rate risk?
Bond
YTM = 8%
3-year
$1,000
20-year
$1,000
YTM = 7%
YTM = 9%
YTM = 5%
YTM = 6%
4% coupon
$818.59
$719.15 (12.1%)
$934.72 (+14.2%)
$949.24 (-5.1%)
$1,054.17 (+5.4%)
10% coupon
$1,181.41
$1,056.17 (10.6%)
$1,326.38 (+12.3%)
$828.41 (-17.2%)
$1,231.15 (+23.1%)
YTM = 10%
35
36
9/03/2016
37
38
39
The yield curve has an upward bias built into the long-term rates
because of the risk premium
40
41
42
9/03/2016
Credit ratings
Credit ratings
High grade
Medium grade
Moodys C, Fitch C and S&P Cincome bonds with no interest being paid.
Moodys D, Fitch DDD, DD and D, and S&P Din default with principal and
interest in arrears.
43
44
Equity valuation
3. Equity Valuation
45
Equity terminology
3.
46
Equity terminology
Sale price
2.
47
48
9/03/2016
Equity terminology
Equity terminology
49
50
Equity terminology
2.
1 + 1
1 1 0
1=
+
0
0
0
3.
52
A one-year investor
51
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=n
P0
Div1
P1
P0
0 =
53
1 + 1
1 +
t=1
Div1= $2
P1= $14
t=2
t=n
t=3
0 =
1 + 1
1 +
$2+$14
1+0.20
= $13.33
54
9/03/2016
An n-year investor
P0
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=n
Div1
Div2
Div3
Divn
Pn
0 =
1
1+
2
1+ 2
+ +
P0
Div1
Div2
Div3
Div
1
2
+
1 +
1 +
3
1 +
t=0
t=1
$1
t=2
t=3
t=
$1
$1
$1
P0
0 =
1
$1
=
= $10
0.10
58
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=
$2.30
$46 =
0.02
$2.30
=
+ 0.02 = 7%
$46
0 =
0 =
59
t=
57
t=3
t=2
56
t=1
0 =
1+
55
1
$2.20(1.04)
=
= $32.69
0.11 0.04
60
10
9/03/2016
EGI will pay an annual dividend of $0.65 one year from now.
Analysts expect this dividend to grow at 12% per year
thereafter until the fifth year. From year 6, the firm will pay a
dividend of $0.80 forever. What is the value of a EGI share of
the firms equity cost of capital is 8%?
Solution:
0 =
1
1+
1
1+
1+
$0.65
1.12
1
0.08 0.12
1.08
= $3.24 + $6.81
= $10.05
=
$0.80
0.08
+
1 + 0.08
62
EPS
growth
(9.36c)
=
Retention rate = 34%
Retained
profit
(52c)
63
+1
+1
+1
=
=
Return on new
investment = 18%
65
+ = 1
61
64
66
11
9/03/2016
Assets
Earnings
Asset produce
earnings
EPS
Dividends
Year
EPS x Payout
Assets
Some earnings
reinvested in the firm
Historical
Earnings
Dividends
EPS
EPS x Payout
t+1
New Investment
EPS x (1 - Payout )
EPS x (1 - Payout )
67
68
Assets
Year
Earnings
Dividends
EPS
EPS x Payout
Historical
Historical assets
produce historical EPS
t+1
New Investment
EPS x Payout
EPS
Historical assets
have return on
new investmentEPS x (1 - Payout)
x RONI
EPS x (1 - Payout)
x RONI x Payout
EPS x (1 - Payout )
70
69
2015
Earnings
$19.70
Dividends (67%)
Growth
= (1 )
71
72
12
9/03/2016
Firms have two ways to pay earnings to shareholders. They may pay dividends...
Payment made to each equity shares owner.
or repurchase shares from existing shareholders.
A firm has enterprise value of $378 million and $22 million in cash. It would like to return
$8 million to investors. There are 10 million shares outstanding. For simplicity, assume
there are no taxes on dividends or capital gains.
Option 1: Paying $8 million dividends
Each shareholder receives a dividends of ____80cent____, after which each share is
worth __ ($378m+$22m-$8m)/10m=$39.2__
Selling shareholders: Receive cash for their shares resulting in a capital gain.
Retiring these shares will mean there are ___10m-0.2m=9.8m___ shares remaining.
Selling shareholders will receive _____$8m_______ in cash.
Remaining shareholders will have shares worth _($378m+$22m-$8m)/9.8m=$40_.
Ignoring taxes, is there an economic difference between dividends and repurchases? Why is
the share price different under the two scenarios?
Number of shares reduces after share repurchases
73
74
Over time, firms choose to pay back earnings in a tax efficient manner for
shareholders.
Australian firms favour dividends as investors prefer to receive
corresponding tax credit.
U.S. firms have moved from dividends to share repurchases over time as
investors prefer to pay lower tax rate.
75
76
Total payout
The total amount paid by the firm to shareholders through dividends and
share repurchases.Total payout is expressed as a dollar amount for the firm
and NOT normalised by the number of shares outstanding.
The dividend discount model can be easily adapted to allow for share repurchases:
Estimate total payouts (dividends + share repurchases) to equity. Do not
normalise by the number of shares.
Use total payouts as cash flows to equity in valuation model.
Discount payouts at the cost of equity to the market value of equity.
Divide market value by current number of shares outstanding to find current
share price.
77
78
13
9/03/2016
4. Conclusion
0.1 0.066
$6.882
0 =
=
= $34.41
#
200
80
79
Summary of formulae
Bonds
1
1+
1+
1+
Coupon bonds: =
Zero-coupon bonds: =
Fisher effect: 1 + = 1 + (1 + )
Equity
= (1 )
81
14