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9/03/2016

Contact Details
Emma Jincheng Zhang (Weeks 3-5)

jin.zhang@unsw.edu.au
Rm 302
Consultation hours: Wednesdays 10-12pm

FINS1613: Business Finance


Semester 1, 2016
Topic 2: Valuation of a Firms securities

Outline
Capital structure
Bond valuation

1.
2.

Bond terminology
Coupon bonds
Zero coupon bonds
Determinants of the yield to maturity

a)
b)
c)
d)
a)
b)
c)
d)

1. Capital Structure

Inflation and interest rates


Interest rate risk
Term structure of interest rates
Credit ratings

Equity valuation

3.

Equity terminology
Dividend discount model

a)
b)
i.

c)

Estimating dividend growth

Total payout model


4

Capital structure

Capital structure: Debt

Capital structure: The relative proportions of debt, equity


and other securities that a firm has outstanding
Common types of securities:

Bonds (debt)
Ordinary shares (equity)
Preference shares (equity)

=+

When a corporation (or government) wishes to borrow


money from the public on a long-term basis (at least 1 year), it
usually does so by selling bonds.
Government bonds are issued by the Australian Treasury

Corporate bonds are issued by corporations

V = PV of cash flows generated by the firm


D = PV of cash flows generated by debt securities
E = PV cash flows generated by equity securities

Considered risk free in developed countries as there is no risk of the


government not making payments and defaulting.
E.g. Australian10-year bond

Considered risky as corporations may default on payments.The


greater the default risk, the higher the interest rate to attract buyers.
E.g. Woolworths Limited bonds

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Capital structure: Debt

Capital structure: Debt

Capital structure: Equity

Residual value

Equity financing includes ordinary shares (common stock)


and preference shares (preferred stock)
Ordinary shares: Equity without priority for dividends; in
bankruptcy it has a residual claim on the assets of the
firm.

E.g. Woolworths Limited (WOW) trading on the ASX

Preference shares: Share with dividend priority over


ordinary shares, normally with a fixed dividend rate,
sometimes without voting rights.

E.g. ANZ convertible preference shares (ANZPA) trading on


the ASX

10

Primary and secondary markets

Primary market transaction: the corporation is the seller


and the transaction raises money for the corporation.

Public offering: involves selling securities to the general public


Private placements: negotiated sale involving a specific buyer

Secondary market transaction: involves one owner or


creditor selling to another.

11

2. Bond Valuation

Secondary markets provide the means for transferring


ownership of corporate securities

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Bond terminology

Bond terminology

Coupon: The promised interest payments of a bond, paid


periodically until the maturity date of the bond.
Coupon rate: Determines the amount of each coupon
payment; expressed as an APR
Face (par) value: The principle amount that is repaid at
the end of the term.
Maturity: Date on which the principal amount is paid.
Yield to maturity (yield): The market required rate of
return for bonds of similar risk and maturity; quoted as an
APR
Example: A six-year bond with $1,000 face value and 5%
coupons paid semi-annually.
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14

Coupon bonds

Coupon bonds

t=0

t=1

t=2

t=3

t=4

t=n

$C

$C

$C

$C

$C
$FV

To calculate the per-period coupon payment:


=

Bond value = PV(coupons) + PV(face value)


Bond value = PV(annuity) + PV(single cash flow)
=

1
1

1+

1+

C = Per-period coupon payment


r = Per-period yield
n = Number of periods
FV = Face value
15

16

Example: Annual coupons

Example: Annual coupons

Consider a bond with a coupon rate of 10% and


coupons paid annually. The par value is $1000 and the
bond has 5 years to maturity. The yield to maturity is
11%. What is the value of the bond?

t=0

Solution:

Number of coupon payments (n):

Per-period coupon payment (C):

=5
= 10% $1,000 = $100

Per-period yield (r):

Face value (FV): $1,000

17

= 11%

t=1

t=2

t=3

t=4

t=5

$100

$100

$100

$100

$100
$1,000

Bond value = PV(coupons) + PV(face value)


Bond value = PV(annuity) + PV(single cash flow)

= 1 1+ + 1+
100
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.11
1 + 0.11 5
1 + 0.11 5
= 369.59 + 593.45 = $963.04
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Example: Semi-annual coupons

Consider a bond with a coupon rate of 7% and coupons paid


semi-annually. The par value is $1000 and the bond has 7 years
to maturity. The yield to maturity is 8%. What is the value of
the bond?
Solution:

Number of coupon payments (n):

Per-period coupon payment (C):

Per-period yield (r):

Face value (FV): $1,000

Example: Semi-annual coupons


t=0

=
=

7% $1,000
2

8%
2

= $35

= 4%

Outback Corporation has bonds on the market with ten


and a half years to maturity, a YTM of 6.9% and a current
price of $1,070. The bonds have a face value of $1,000
and make half-yearly payments. What is the semi-annual
coupon payment? What must the coupon rate be on
Outbacks bonds?

t=4

t = 14

$35

$35

$35

$35

$35
$1,000

Bond value = PV(coupons) + PV(face value)


Bond value = PV(annuity) + PV(single cash flow)

= 1
+

1+
1+
35
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.04
1 + 0.04 14
1 + 0.04 14
= 369.71 + 577.48 = $947.18

Example: Solving for C


t=0

t=1

t=2

t=3

t=4

t = 21

$C

$C

$C

$C

$C
$1,000

Bond value = PV(coupons) + PV(face value)

Solution:

Number of coupon payments (n):

= 2 10.5 = 21

Per-period yield (r):

6.9%
2

$1,070 =

= 3.45%

Face value (FV): $1,000

21

1
1

1+

1
1
0.0345
1 + 0.0345
= $39.24

1+
21

1,000
1 + 0.0345

21

22

Example: Solving for C

t=3

20

Example: Solving for C

t=2

= 2 7 = 14

19

t=1

Relationship between bond price, YTM and


coupon rate

Annual coupon rate:



$1,000
$39.24 =
2
2 $39.24
=
= 7.85%
$1,000

23

Bond trades
at

Price and Face


value

YTM and Coupon rate

Premium

Price > Face value

YTM < Coupon rate

Par

Price = Face value

YTM = Coupon rate

Discount

Price < Face value

YTM > Coupon rate

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Example: Relationship between bond price,


YTM and coupon rate

The Barramundi fishing company is issuing a bond with


ten years to maturity. The Barramundi bond has a face
value of $1,000 and an annual coupon of $80. Similar
bonds have a yield to maturity of 8%. Is the Barramundi
bond selling at par, premium or discount?

Example: Relationship between bond price,


YTM and coupon rate

Does your answer change if the Barramundi bond pays an annual


coupon of $60?

Since the yield to maturity = coupon rate, the bond is selling at


par.

1
+

1+
1+
80
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.08
1 + 0.08 10
1 + 0.08
= 536.81 + 463.19 = $1,000

The coupon rate is 6%. Since yield to maturity > coupon rate, the bond
is selling at a discount.

26

Example: Relationship between bond price,


YTM and coupon rate
How about $100?

Discount, Par and Premium

The coupon rate is 10%. Since yield to maturity < coupon rate, the bond
is selling at a premium.

1
+

1+
1+
100
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.08
1 + 0.08 10
1 + 0.08
= 671.01 + 463.19 = $1,134.20

10

27

The coupon rate is fixed and simply determines what the bonds
coupon payments will be. The yield to maturity is what the market
demands on the issue, and it will fluctuate through time.
You cannot determine if a bond is a good investment based on
whether it is selling at a discount, par or premium.
Example: Consider the following bonds. Each bond has 10 years to
maturity and pays coupons annually.

=
1+

10%

Bond C
10%

Coupon payment

$80

$100

$120

Face value

$1,000

$1,000

$1,000

Price

$877.11

$1,000

$1122.89

Discount

Par

Premium

Suppose Digger Ltd issues a $1,000 face value, five-year


zero coupon bond. The initial price is set at $497. What is
the yield to maturity of the bond?
Solution:

We are solving for the yield to maturity, or r.

1+
$1,000
$497 =
1+ 5
1/5
$1,000
=
1 = 15%
$497
=

r = Per-period yield
n = Number of periods
FV = Face value

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Bond B

10%

Example: Zero-coupon bonds

A bond that pays no coupons, and thus is initially priced


at a discount.
The price of an n-year zero-coupon bond is:

Bond A
YTM

28

Zero-coupon bonds

10

10

25

1
+

1+
1+
60
1
1,000
=
1
+
0.08
1 + 0.08 10
1 + 0.08
= 402.60 + 463.19 = $865.79

This is equivalent to finding the present value of a single cash


flow.
30

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Inflation and interest rates

Inflation and interest rates

Real rate of interest: change in purchasing power.


Nominal rate of interest: quoted rate of interest, change
in purchasing power and inflation.
The ex ante nominal rate of interest includes our desired
real rate of return plus an adjustment for expected
inflation.

The Fisher effect: defines the relationship between real


rates, nominal rates and inflation:

1 + = 1 + (1 + )

Approximation:

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32

Example: Inflation and interest rates

If we require a 10% real return and we expect


inflation to be 8%, what is the nominal rate?
Nominal = (1.1)(1.08) 1 = .188 = 18.8%
Approximation: Nominal = 10% + 8% = 18%
Because the real return and expected inflation are
relatively high, there is a significant difference between
the actual Fisher effect and the approximation.

Interest rate risk

1.
2.

33

The longer the time to maturity, the greater the


interest rate risk.
The lower the coupon rate, the greater the interest
rate risk.

34

Example: Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk: The risk that arises for bond


owners from fluctuating interest rates. Assuming all
other things being equal,

Example: Interest rate risk

Both Bond Bill and Bond Ted have 8% coupons, make halfyearly payments, have a $1,000 face value, and are priced
at par value. Bond Bill has three years to maturity,
whereas Bond Ted has twenty years to maturity. Which
bond has more interest rate risk?

Bond J is a 4% coupon bond. Bond S is a 10% coupon


bond. Both bonds have eight years to maturity, $1,000
face value, make half-yearly payments, and have a YTM of
7%. Which bond has more interest rate risk?
Bond

Bond

YTM = 8%

3-year

$1,000

20-year

$1,000

YTM = 7%

YTM = 9%

YTM = 5%

YTM = 6%

4% coupon

$818.59

$719.15 (12.1%)

$934.72 (+14.2%)

$949.24 (-5.1%)

$1,054.17 (+5.4%)

10% coupon

$1,181.41

$1,056.17 (10.6%)

$1,326.38 (+12.3%)

$828.41 (-17.2%)

$1,231.15 (+23.1%)

YTM = 10%

35

Bond J (4% coupon) has higher interest rate risk.

Bond Ted (20-year bond) has more interest rate risk.

36

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Term structure of interest rates

Term structure of interest rates

The term structure is the relationship between the


term to maturity and interest rate for securities in the
same risk class.
The term structure is illustrated by the yield curve,
which plots bond yield against term to maturity.
Determinants of term structure:

Market expectations hypothesis


Liquidity premium hypothesis

37

38

Term structure of interest rates

Market expectations hypothesis

Term structure of interest rates

Interest rates are set so investors can expect to receive, on


average, the same return over any future period, regardless of
the security in which they invest.
Long and short-term rates are perfect substitutes.
The observed long-term rate is a function of todays short
term rate and expected future short-term rates.

39

The yield curve has an upward bias built into the long-term rates
because of the risk premium

Forward rates are not equal to expected future short-term


rates

40

Credit risk and Credit ratings

Australian Treasury securities are widely regarded


to be risk free; it is highly unlikely that the
government will default on these bonds.
With corporate bonds, the bond issuer may
default.
Credit risk: the risk of default by the issuer.
Credit rating: the assessment by a credit rating
agency of the creditworthiness of the corporate
issuer

41

Although future interest rates are set by investors


expectations, investors need to be given some reward (liquidity
premium) for taking the extra risk involved in longer term
securities
May explain why yield curves generally upwards sloping

If interest rates are expected to rise, long-term interest rates will be


higher than short-term rates to attract investors.
If interest rates are expected to drop, long-term interest rates will be
lower than short-term rates.

Term structure of interest rates

Liquidity premium hypothesis (interest rate risk)

E.g. Standard & Poors (S&P), Moodys Investors


Service, Fitch Ratings
Encourages widespread investor participation

42

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Credit ratings

Credit ratings

High grade

Moodys Aaa, Fitch AAA and S&P AAAcapacity to pay is extremely


strong.
Moodys Aa, Fitch AA and S&P AAcapacity to pay is very strong.

Medium grade

Moodys A, Fitch A and S&P Acapacity to pay is strong, but more


susceptible to changes in circumstances.
Moodys Baa, Fitch BBB and S&P BBBcapacity to pay is adequate,
adverse conditions will have more impact on the firms ability to pay.
Low grade

Moodys Ba, B ,Caa and Ca


Fitch BB, B, CCC and CC
S&P BB, B, CCC
Considered speculative with respect to capacity to pay. The B ratings are the
lowest degree of speculation.

Very low grade

Moodys C, Fitch C and S&P Cincome bonds with no interest being paid.
Moodys D, Fitch DDD, DD and D, and S&P Din default with principal and
interest in arrears.

43

44

Equity valuation

More difficult to value in practice than a bond:


1.
2.

3. Equity Valuation

45

Equity terminology

3.

Promised cash flows are not known in advance


Life of the investment is essentially forever; there is no
maturity for an ordinary share
No way to observe the rate of return required by the market

46

Equity terminology

Return from an equity investment comes from two


sources:
1. Dividend payments

Payment made to shareholders


Future dividends are uncertain and not guaranteed

Sale price

2.

47

Cash flow occurs when the stock is sold


Market price on the stock exchange
Market price is not known with certainty before sale

48

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Equity terminology

Equity terminology

Equity cost of capital (rE): The expected return of other


investments available in the market with equivalent risk to
the firms share.

49

50

Equity terminology

Equity valuation approach

The expected total return of a share should equal its


equity cost of capital
Total return from equity ownership can be separated into
two components:

2.

1 + 1
1 1 0
1=
+
0
0
0

3.

52

Dividend Discount Model

Example: One-year investor

A one-year investor

Determine the expected cash flows


Consists of expected dividend payments and a final share
price
Estimate a discount rate by comparison to a traded,
benchmark asset with similar type of risk

Benchmark against the market, which does not have


idiosyncratic risk

Adjust the rate for each stocks systematic risk relative


to the market
Compute the present value

51

In general, we value an equity as follows:


1.

Dividend yield: a shares expected cash dividend divided by its


current price
Capital gain yield: the change in stock price as a percentage of
the initial price
Total Return = Dividend yield + Capital gain rate
=

This is the discount rate for equity

Value of the stock today: P0


Expects to receive a dividend of Div1 in one year and sell the
stock for P1
t=0

t=1

t=2

t=3

t=n

Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the stock of


Moore Oil, Inc. and you expect it to pay a $2 dividend in
one year and you believe that you can sell the stock for
$14 at that time. If you require a return of 20% on
investments of this risk, what is the maximum you would
be willing to pay?
t=0

P0

Div1
P1
P0

0 =
53

1 + 1
1 +

t=1

Div1= $2
P1= $14

t=2

t=n

t=3

0 =

1 + 1
1 +
$2+$14
1+0.20

= $13.33

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Dividend Discount Model

Dividend Discount Model

An n-year investor

Value of the stock today: P0


Expects to receive a dividend of Div1 each year through to time
n. At time n, will receive a final dividend and sell the stock for
Pn.
t=0

P0

t=1

t=2

t=3

t=n

Div1

Div2

Div3

Divn
Pn

0 =

1
1+

2
1+ 2

+ +

P0

Div1

Div2

Div3

Div

1
2
+
1 +
1 +

3
1 +

t=0

t=1

$1

t=2

t=3

t=

$1

$1

$1

P0

We assume that in the long run, dividends grow at a constant


rate.
Constant dividend growth model: A model for valuing a share
by viewing its dividends as a constant growth perpetuity

0 =

1
$1
=
= $10

0.10

58

Example: Dividend Discount Model


BDF has just paid a dividend of $2.20 per share, which
is expected to grow at 4% per year in the future.Your
required rate of return is 11%. What is the value of a
share?
t=0

t=1

t=2

t=3

Example: Solving for r

CEG has a current share price of $46 and plans to pay


$2.30 per share in dividends in the coming year. If
dividends are expected to grow by 2% per year in the
future, what is DFHs equity cost of capital?

t=

$2.30
$46 =
0.02
$2.30
=
+ 0.02 = 7%
$46
0 =

$2.20(1.04) $2.20(1.04)2 $2.20(1.04)3


P0

0 =
59

t=

ACE is offering a constant dividend of $1. Your required


rate of return is 10%. What is the value of a share?

The price of the share is equivalent to the present value of all


of the expected future dividends it will pay

57

t=3

Example: Dividend Discount Model

Estimating these dividends is difficult

t=2

56

Dividend discount model: A model that values shares


according to the present value of the future dividends the
firm will pay.

t=1

0 =

1+

Dividend Discount Model

Value of the stock today: P0


Expects to receive a dividend each year in perpetuity.
t=0

55

An infinite horizon investor

1
$2.20(1.04)
=
= $32.69

0.11 0.04
60

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Example: Two-stage model

Estimating dividend growth

EGI will pay an annual dividend of $0.65 one year from now.
Analysts expect this dividend to grow at 12% per year
thereafter until the fifth year. From year 6, the firm will pay a
dividend of $0.80 forever. What is the value of a EGI share of
the firms equity cost of capital is 8%?
Solution:
0 =

1
1+
1

1+

1+

$0.65
1.12
1
0.08 0.12
1.08
= $3.24 + $6.81
= $10.05
=

Earnings per share (EPS): Measures firm profitability. It


is total earnings normalised by the number of shares
outstanding.

$0.80
0.08
+
1 + 0.08

62

Dividend payout rate = 66%


EPS
(153c)

Estimating dividend growth


DPS
(101c)

EPS
growth
(9.36c)

Dividend per share can be computed as

=
Retention rate = 34%

Assume the dividend payout rate is constant, then

Retained
profit
(52c)

EPS in the next period increases by 9.36c, which will be


available for distribution as dividends or ploughed back
into the firm

An estimate for earnings growth is an estimate for


dividend growth.

63

Estimating dividend growth


Assuming dividends are paid from earnings, estimating
dividend growth requires estimating earnings growth
Use accounting measures to:
Determine the amount of earnings retained
for new investment
Determine the return on this new
investment

+1

+1

+1

=
=

Return on new
investment = 18%

65

Return on new investment: Measures the ability of a firm to turn


investment into earnings. It is the ratio of new earnings to new investment.

+ = 1

How do dividends grow?

Dividend payout rate: The fraction of earnings that a firm pays as


dividends
Retention rate: The fraction of earnings that a firm retains for new
investment.

61

Earnings can be used to pay out dividends or they can be


retained within the firm for future investment

64

Estimating dividend growth

Assuming the dividend payout rate is constant, the


dividend growth rate can be expressed as follows:
=
= 1

RONI: Return on new investment

66

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Understanding dividend growth


Year

Assets

Earnings
Asset produce
earnings

EPS

Understanding dividend growth

Dividends

Year

Some earnings paid


as dividends

EPS x Payout

Assets

Some earnings
reinvested in the firm

Historical

Earnings

Dividends

EPS

EPS x Payout

Assets in year t+1 comprise


both historical and new assets

t+1
New Investment

EPS x (1 - Payout )

EPS x (1 - Payout )
67

68

Understanding dividend growth

Understanding dividend growth

Assets

Year

Earnings

Dividends

EPS

EPS x Payout

Analysing the example shows that the growth in


dividends is:

Historical

Historical assets
produce historical EPS

t+1
New Investment

EPS x Payout

EPS

Historical assets
have return on
new investmentEPS x (1 - Payout)

x RONI

EPS x (1 - Payout)
x RONI x Payout

EPS x (1 - Payout )
70

69

Example: Estimating dividend growth

A company expects to have earnings in 2014 of $19.70


when it will payout 67% of earnings. The firm reinvests
retained earnings in new projects with an expected
return on investment of 18% per year. What is the
expected dividend for 2015?
2014

Limitations of the dividend-discount model

Future dividends are uncertain


It is difficult to estimate the dividend growth rate

Some firms (especially young firms) pay no dividends


Growth rates change over time
Small changes in the estimate of the dividend growth rate can
lead to large changes in the estimated share price.

2015

Earnings

$19.70

$19.70 (1.0594) = $20.87

Dividends (67%)

$19.70 67% = $13.20

$20.87 67% = $13.98

Growth

(1 67%) 18% = 5.94%

= (1 )

71

72

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Dividends and share repurchases

Dividends and share repurchases


An illustrative problem.

Firms have two ways to pay earnings to shareholders. They may pay dividends...
Payment made to each equity shares owner.
or repurchase shares from existing shareholders.

A firm has enterprise value of $378 million and $22 million in cash. It would like to return
$8 million to investors. There are 10 million shares outstanding. For simplicity, assume
there are no taxes on dividends or capital gains.
Option 1: Paying $8 million dividends
Each shareholder receives a dividends of ____80cent____, after which each share is
worth __ ($378m+$22m-$8m)/10m=$39.2__

Firm purchases and retires equity shares.


All shareholders benefit.

Option 2: Repurchase $8 million in shares at $40.0 each

Selling shareholders: Receive cash for their shares resulting in a capital gain.

It will purchase ___$8m/$40=0.2m___ shares

Remaining shareholders: Retain shares that represent a greater percent stake in


the firm.

Retiring these shares will mean there are ___10m-0.2m=9.8m___ shares remaining.
Selling shareholders will receive _____$8m_______ in cash.
Remaining shareholders will have shares worth _($378m+$22m-$8m)/9.8m=$40_.
Ignoring taxes, is there an economic difference between dividends and repurchases? Why is
the share price different under the two scenarios?
Number of shares reduces after share repurchases

73

74

Dividends and share repurchases

Dividends and share repurchases

Investors may have a preference for dividends or share repurchases depending on


tax laws.

Over time, firms choose to pay back earnings in a tax efficient manner for
shareholders.
Australian firms favour dividends as investors prefer to receive
corresponding tax credit.
U.S. firms have moved from dividends to share repurchases over time as
investors prefer to pay lower tax rate.

Dividends apply to all shareholders. All shareholders pay taxes.


Australia: Uses an imputation tax system. Franking credits ensure total tax
paid by a shareholder is equal to the personal tax rate.
U.S.: Uses a classical tax system. Earnings first taxed at corporate level and
then taxed as income on personal level.
Share repurchases only go to shareholders that want to sell. Only selling
shareholders pay taxes on capital gain.
Australia: Capital gains taxed as income.
U.S.: Long-term capital gains taxed at a lower rate than income.

75

76

Total payout

Total Payout Model

The total amount paid by the firm to shareholders through dividends and
share repurchases.Total payout is expressed as a dollar amount for the firm
and NOT normalised by the number of shares outstanding.

The dividend discount model can be easily adapted to allow for share repurchases:
Estimate total payouts (dividends + share repurchases) to equity. Do not
normalise by the number of shares.
Use total payouts as cash flows to equity in valuation model.
Discount payouts at the cost of equity to the market value of equity.
Divide market value by current number of shares outstanding to find current
share price.

As share repurchases changes the number of equity shares outstanding, total


payout per share would not be a meaningful measure.

77

78

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Example: Total Payout Model


Assume the following for a firm...
Expected earnings at the end of this year is $520 million.
200 million shares outstanding
The firm expects to pay 30% of earnings in dividends and 15% in share repurchases.
Earnings are expected to grow by 6.6% per year and the payout rates remain constant

4. Conclusion

Equity cost of capital is 10%


What is the price of the stock using a constant growth total payout model?
Assuming constant payout rates, the total payout amount would grow at the same rate as
earnings.
1
0.3 + 0.15 $520
=
=
= $6.882

0.1 0.066

$6.882
0 =
=
= $34.41
#
200

80

79

Summary of formulae

Bonds

1
1+

1+

1+

Coupon bonds: =

Zero-coupon bonds: =

Fisher effect: 1 + = 1 + (1 + )

Equity

Dividend discount model: PV of all future dividends


Total payout model: PV of all future dividends & repurchases

= (1 )

81

14

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