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Evidence that shares are often mispriced relative to their deficient market
values
If shares are mispriced, improved financial reporting maybe helpful in
reducing inefficiencies
Average investor behavior may not correspond with rational decision
theory
Various behavioral characteristics are inconsistent with securities market
efficiency and rational decision theory
o Limited attention
Investors may not have time or ability to process all available
information
Investors look for the bottom-line
Investors may be biased
o Conservatism
Investors may be conservative in their reaction to new evidence
More emphasis on their individual prior beliefs
o Overconfidence
Investors overestimate the precision of information which they
collect
The overconfident investor will under-react to new information
that is not self collected, relative to information that is self
collected
o Representativeness
The investor assigns too much wait to evidence that is
consistent with their impressions of the population from which
the evidence is drawn
The investor takes the evidence of the few years of growth and
earnings as a representative of a growth firm, ignoring the fact
that it is quite likely that earnings will revert to normal in the
future
o Self-attribution bias
Good decision outcomes are due to their abilities; vs bad
decision outcomes are due to unfortunate realizations of states
of nature (not their fault)
Share price momentum can develop; reinforced confidence
following a rise in share price leads to the purchase of more
shares, and share price rises further
o Motivated reasoning
Investors accept at face value information that is consistent with
their preferences
If the information is inconsistent with their preferences, it is
received with skepticism and the investor will attempt to
discredit it
Contrasts with decisions theory (decision-maker accepts the
objective probabilities of the information)
Behavioral finance: the study of behavioral based securities market
inefficiencies
Prospect Theory
Alternate theory of decision making
Separate evaluation of gains and losses (narrow
framing)
Weighing of probabilities
o Overconfidence: event probs
underweighted
o Representativeness: event probs
overweighted
Prospect theory utility function
o Leads to a disposition effect
o Leads to earnings management to avoid reporting small losses
Is Beta dead?
Empirical results are weak and mixed that beta explains stock returns
(assuming CAPM is valid)
Other risk variables that explain stock returns:
o Book-to-market ratio
o Firm size
Answer = yes non-stationarity of beta
Answer = no behavioral finance - share returns driven by investor
overconfidence, not by beta
Conclusion beta isnt dead but other risk variables also explain share
returns
o Increased role of reporting on risk needed
Efficient Securities Market Anomalies
Post-announcement Drift (PAD)
o Abnormal share returns drift upwards or downwards for several
months following GN or BN in quarterly earnings
o Efficient securities market theory predicts immediate response
to GN or BN in reported earnings
o Reasons for PAD
Investors limited attention
Conservative financial reporting
Effects of inflation on financial statements
Lack of timeliness of analyst forecast revisions
Investors lack of confidence in management forecasts
o Recent evidence that PAD has almost disappeared
Accruals anomaly
o Net income = OCF +/- net accruals
o Accruals have lower persistence than cash flows
ERC should be greater the higher the proportion of OCF
relative to accruals
Evidence is that this isnt the case and ERD does not
reflect the proportion of OCF to accruals
o Reasons for accrual anomaly
Liquidity Risk
Investor uncertainty over what buying and selling prices of securities
will be
No liquidity risk on a liquid market CAPM assumes perfect liquidity
Undermines securities market efficiency can call prices to fall below
fundamental value
Can accounting reduce liquidity risk?
o Empirical evidence suggests high quality reporting associated
with lower liquidity risk
Derecognition and Consolidation
The purpose of new standards are to reduce abuses leading up to the
2008 meltdown
Derecognition
o When can a firm remove assets from its books?
o Can derecognize when substantially all risks and rewards of
ownership are transferred
o No derecognizing if control retained
Consolidation
o Required when one entity controls another
o Control exists when one firm has power over another and bears
risk of return on its investment
Derivative Financial Instruments
Financial instrument that is a contract where the value depends on
some underlying factor
Reporting on Risk
Some reasons for managing firm-specific risk, even though investors
can diversify it away
o Reduce investor estimation risk
o Cash availability for planned capital expenditures
o Control speculation by managers
o Reduce likelihood of major losses, which often lead to lawsuits
Beta risk
o Relevant to rational, diversified investor
Beta an input into investment decisions
o Accounting variables are correlated with beta
May help investors to estimate beta
Some reasons why reporting on other (firm-specific) risks also relevant
to investors
o Risk information may reduce estimation risk
o Hedging may prevent losses, reducing auditor & firm legal
liability
o Risk reporting may control manager speculation
Conclusions
Standard setters continue to favour current value measurements in
financial statements
o Conceptual framework emphasizes balance sheet approach
o Some current value measurements are one-sided
Lower-of-cost-or-market, ceiling tests
o Some backing off from fair value post 2007- 2008 market
meltdowns
E.g., IFRS 9 business model concept allows increased use
of amortized cost
Accountants are recognizing an increased obligation to measure and
report on firm risk
Late timing
This increased level of abuse led to the pressures to expense
ESOs even though managers resisted the change
Why management resistance?
o No effect on cash lfows
o ESO expense already reported as supplementary information
o Possible reasons:
May lead to reduced use of ESOs as compensation
Resulting reduced scope to abuse ESO value?
Concerns about reliability of Black/Scholes?
Lower reported net income?
Rejection of market efficiency?
o
Conclusions
Contract theory argues that the role of financial reporting is to
generate trust between contracting parties
o Debt and managerial compensation contracts emphasized
Contract theory conflicts somewhat with Conceptual Framework
o Supports increased emphasis on reliability and conditional
conservatism
Managers have accounting policy choice
o Is this flexibility consistent with efficient contracting or with
manager opportunism?
Empirical evidence is mixed.