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1. Internal Link |optional|: High Oil Prices cause Alt Energy R&D

Associated Press 04 - With oil reaching record high prices and natural gas doubling
in the last two years, renewable energy is looking a lot better
Associated Press, “Rising oil prices boost renewable energy”, published by MSNBC, October 21, 2004,
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6271966/, (ETHOS)
“SAN FRANCISCO - With oil reaching record high prices and natural gas doubling in the
last two years, renewable energy is looking a lot better — not just on environmental
merits, but on price. Wind, solar, geothermal and other green power sources have long
been championed by people worried about smog and global warming, but until recently
they were too costly to compete. But the soaring cost of fossil fuels is changing the
economics of the energy market. "Rising fossil fuel prices are making renewable energy
more competitive in the power market," said Steve Taub, an alternative energy analyst at
Cambridge Energy Research Associates.”

Oystein Noreng 02 - alternative fuels for automobiles and airplanes would be

stimulated by higher oil prices
Oystein Noreng, [Professor of Petroleum Economics and Management at the Norwegian School of
Management], “Crude Power: Politics and the Oil Market”, 2002, pg 144-145, <accessed via
GoogleBooks>, ISBN: 978-1-84511-023-9, (ZV)
“There was a further strategic wisdom in this choice. By keeping the oil price moderate, the
technological backstop could be avoided or at least deferred. Development to replace oil in its primary
market, the transportation sector, has been retarded. Any new oil price shock not only carries
the risk of a nasty return through declining oil demand, which may be temporary, but also
a risk of stimulating the development of alternative fuels. This means essentially non-
OPEC oil, where production in North America is the most price sensitive, and natural
gas, which when oil prices are high becomes a more interesting alternative. Coal and
nuclear energy should perhaps be included as well. In the longer run, alternative fuels for
automobiles and airplanes would be stimulated by higher oil prices.”

Gregory Meyer and Spencer Swartz 08 - sky-high crude prices would hasten the
development of renewable energy that would displace petroleum, Saudi Oil
monsters testify to this
Gregory Meyer and Spencer Swartz, [both are writers for the Dow Dones newswire], “ENERGY
MATTERS: Saudi Fears Of High Oil Prices Fade With Demand”, May 5, 2008,
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/ENERGY-MATTERS--Saudi-Fears-Of-High-Oil-Prices-Fade-With-
Demand/2008-05-05/Article.aspx?oid=607481, (ETHOS)
“HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--For all the benefits of soaring oil prices, Saudi Arabia has
historically viewed them with a measure of trepidation. Besides the worry that high
energy prices could hinder economic growth and eat into demand, Saudi officials have
traditionally argued that sky-high crude prices would hasten the development of
renewable energy that would displace petroleum. But as oil prices have crept up in recent
years, from the $20 a barrel range early in the decade to Monday's record above $120 a barrel, the
kingdom has repeatedly used its clout within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to
sanction an ever-higher price deck. At the same time, while Saudi Arabia's powerful Oil Minister Ali
Naimi has at times emphasized price moderation, he hasn't been as vocal as some predecessors on the
worry that high prices threaten the long-term viability of Saudi Arabia's core asset.”
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Bloomberg 08 - Wind, solar and biofuel companies received a record $148 billion in
new funding last year as rising oil prices and climate-change rules encouraged
investment in renewable energy
Jim Efstathiou Jr., “Global Clean-Energy Investment Rose 60% in 2007 (Update1) Share Business
Exchange”, Bloomberg, July 1, 2008, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601081&sid=apeyv.EIQQv4&refer=australia, (ETHOS)
“July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Wind, solar and biofuel companies received a record $148 billion in
new funding last year as rising oil prices and climate-change rules encouraged investment
in renewable energy, the United Nations Environment Program said. Wind power attracted the
most financing at $50 billion, according to a report today from the Nairobi-based UNEP. Overall,
investment in clean-energy and energy-efficiency industries rose 60 percent from 2006.
Carbon dioxide, the byproduct of burning coal, oil and natural gas, is the main pollutant blamed
for global warming. Fossil-fuel burning power plants are the world's biggest source of
CO2, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. ``We have a significant
economic signal here that goes well beyond what even 10 years ago some of the
mainstream energy think tanks or international finance institutions thought would
happen,'' Achim Steiner, the director general of UNEP, said on a conference call. ``It reflects a
clear understanding in the marketplace that environmental change scenarios are indeed
driving public policy.”

Emory University 08 - higher prices also encourages the development of alternative

energy sources
Emory University’s ‘Knolwedge @ Emory’ Division, “Will High Gasoline Prices Spur Innovation?”, May
14, 2008, http://knowledge.emory.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1141, (ETHOS)
“Hill: Yes and no. As far as the macro-economy is concerned, higher prices function like a tax from
abroad, which lowers our real income. This reduction in real income is something we have to accept;
trying to reverse it through economic stimulus will just take us back to the stagflation of the 1970s. On
the positive side, higher prices signal to Americans the need to cut back on consumption and to the
oil industry the need to search for and develop sites that were too expensive to extract a few years ago.
Attention to price also encourages the development of alternative energy sources, the object
of considerable investment these days. The Saudis don’t like it when the oil price crosses higher
thresholds for exactly this reason. When oil hit $40 a barrel in 1980-81, the Iranians were chiefly
responsible, which irritated the Saudis. They warned Iran that the West would develop sources of
alternative energy that would put them all out of business a lot sooner than they wanted. This is a
notion economists call limit pricing. Indeed, the price of oil dropped after that. The Saudis have
always believed that oil prices should vary within a certain range. They recognize that high prices
encourage the development of fuel cell technology or something else, which once developed, won’t go
away, undercutting the value of oil. But in the face of current worldwide supply problems, coupled
with a burst of demand from China and India, the Saudis have lost control over pricing. If prices
don’t drop, we’ll see an even bigger investment in alternative energy sources. Once that
investment is made, those alternatives will be around forever.”
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2. Internal Link 2: Alt Energy decreases Gasoline/Oil consumption

Environmental News Service 06 - as renewable energy supplants nonrenewable

energy, demand for fuels declines
“25 Percent Renewable Energy by 2025 Possible for USA”, Environmental News Service, November 15,
2006, http://earthhopenetwork.net/25_Percent_Renewable_Energy_2025_Possible_USA.htm, (ZV)
“They find that as renewable energy supplants nonrenewable energy, demand for fuels
declines, driving down the prices of fossil fuels in the computer model. "When talking
about the impact of increasing use of renewable energy sources in our energy future, it's
important to be clear about the assumptions being made about future energy prices and
technological developments, not just for renewables but also for competing fossil energy
sources," said Michael Toman, director of RAND's Environment, Energy, and Economic
Development program. The RAND study examined 1,500 cases of varying energy price and
technology cost conditions for renewable and nonrenewable resources. The RAND team developed a
model based on the EIA's National Energy Modeling System. The most extreme of the 1,500 scenarios
produced no more than a six percent change in energy expenditures, or about $75 billion in additional
costs in 2025.”

Natural Resource Defense Council 05 - there is tremendous potential for biofuels to

displace petroleum in our cars and trucks
“SECURING AMERICA Solving Our Oil Dependence Through Innovation”, Natural Resource Defense
Council, February 2005, http://www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/oilsecurity/plan.pdf, (ZV)
“Ethanol made from cellulosic biomass offers numerous advantages, as detailed in a recent
report lead by NRDC for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The
technology for converting cellulose to biofuels is expected to be cost-competitive with
petroleum-based fuels. Cellulosic biomass crops, such as switchgrass, have the potential to produce
more biomass per acre than almost any other crop and as a perennial they require lower inputs of
energy, fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide, and is accompanied by less erosion and improved soil
fertility. Cellulosic biomass also contains substantial amounts of non-fermentable, energy-rich
components that can be used to provide energy for the conversion process as well as to produce
electricity and other fuels using non-biological conversion processes.63 With the right policies in
place, there is tremendous potential for biofuels to displace petroleum in our cars and
trucks. By 2050, biofuels could contribute the equivalent of 7.9 million barrels of oil per
day, or 53 percent of our current demand.”
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3. Brink: Decreased Oil use causes OPEC to flood market w/ cheap. oil.
[aka. Backstopping]

Oystein Noreng 06 - A major problem in implementing additional taxes on oil

consumption is the risk of OPEC retaliation combined with the impossibility of
stabilizing crude oil prices in the longer run
Oystein Noreng, [Professor of Petroleum Economics and Management at BI Norwegian School of
Management, and teaches oil supplies and Middle Eastern politics], “Crude power: politics and the oil
market” I.B. Tauris, 2006, pg 186, ISBN: 978-1-84511-023-9, <accessed via GoogleBooks>, (ETHOS)
“A major problem in implementing additional taxes on oil consumption is the risk of
OPEC retaliation combined with the impossibility of stabilizing crude oil prices in the
longer run. New taxes on oil products could invite OPEC to raise crude oil prices to
compensate for the rising share of economic rent captured by the oil consumer
governments, reasoning that the oil price rise would not cause a corresponding volume
loss so that there would be a net revenue gain. The alternative could be to flood the
market with cheap oil to make up in volumes for a perceived loss in world market crude
oil prices. The risk is that either option would overshoot and enhance instability.”

National Post 08 - A drop in demand would translate into less money in OPEC
government coffers OPEC would produce and sell even more oil to keep up demand
and at reduced prices to ensure it pocketed the same amount of money as when
prices were high
Carrie Tait, “Only recession will cut oil prices; Oil Industry Experts”, National Post, April 15, 2008,
http://www.albertaliberal.com/images/uploads/Clippings_April_15.pdf, (ETHOS)
“A drop in demand would translate into less money in OPEC government coffers. To
make up the shortfall, OPEC would produce and sell even more oil to keep up demand and
at reduced prices to ensure it pocketed the same amount of money as when prices were
high, Mr. Lee said. "I don't believe that [OPEC's production] is driven by high prices," he said. "I
believe that is driven by low prices, particularly if that low price starts to effect an increase
in demand again." For example, he estimates that Iran spends $30-billion a year on oil subsidies, a
luxury the country can afford thanks to oil revenue. But should global demand wane, the country
would have to come up with the cash; increasing supply at a lower price would do the trick. High oil
prices prompt some West-ern states to temper oil consumption. But another expert noted oil use rises
in the Middle East as prices climb. Kang Wu, a senior director at FACTS Global Energy USA, said
higher oil prices mean governments have more money to support and invest in their
countries, which leads to higher energy consumption in the region.”

NYT 00 - What would lead the Saudis to start pumping enough oil to lower prices?
In a word, fear
Floyd Norris, “Crude Error: How We Grew Vulnerable to High Oil Prices”, New York Times, June 23,
2000, <accessed January 8, 2010>, http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/23/business/crude-error-how-we-
grew-vulnerable-to-high-oil-prices.html?sec=&spon=&pagewanted=print, (ETHOS)
“What would lead the Saudis to start pumping enough oil to lower prices? In a word, fear.
If they feared that a worldwide recession was imminent and knew that would cause
demand to plummet, they might act. There is no such fear now. But the other fear is a
longer-range one. A trend away from oil would be a scary phenomenon to the oil-rich
Saudis, and they would hate to see a renewal of the 1970's trends toward better fuel
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economy and alternative energy sources. They are no doubt thrilled that the American law
mandating high fuel economy for cars has a huge loophole classifying gas-guzzling sport utility
vehicles as trucks. Gas prices have entered the political debate this year, but not in any way that
should scare the Saudis. Republicans blast pollution rules for driving up the cost of gasoline in the
Midwest. Democrats suspect oil companies are seizing an opportunity to increase profit margins. Both
are right, at least to some extent, but both are beside the point. The real mistake in Washington came
in the years after the last oil crisis, when oil prices were weak and Americans lost interest in
energy conservation.”

Oil and Gas Journal 04 – Saudi’s: We have acted on our policy statement that we
want stable oil markets. We want fair prices. We have maintained capacity to do so
Bob Williams, “Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi sees kingdom's continued role as key supplier of last resort”,
Oil and Gas Journal, June 29, 2004, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/858, (ETHOS)
“We have acted on our policy statement that we want stable oil markets. We want fair
prices. We have maintained capacity to do so. We have done everything possible we
know, other than just produce to flood the market, which would be damaging to the
objective of a stable oil market." Al-Naimi addressed two key threats to future oil market
stability: a shift away from oil owing to concerns over postulated catastrophic climate
change and a return to competition for market share among major producing countries. He contends
that, regarding which solutions are implemented to combat the perceived threat of global warming,
"whatever the world does should not be prejudiced against oil." "Actually, in the next 30
years at least, there is not really a substitute for [oil use in] transportation. . .that's where the bulk of oil
is going. "Now if we are concerned about [carbon dioxide], I believe there is enough technology to
sequester CO2 and to take CO2 out of the atmosphere. It doesn't make any sense to compare
consumption of crude oil and pay subsidies to coal. To us, that is inconsistent with the objective
of eliminating CO2. Now I think there may have been a political dimension to this." Nevertheless,
given concerns about climate, working together to combat a perceived threat does not
mean reducing or eliminating oil use, he said. "I think we should find a better ameliorating
method than just shunting aside oil." Al-Naimi also recalled the lesson learned about market
share competition in the oil price collapse of 1998-99.”
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4. Impact 1: Renewable Energy R&D Stifled

MSNBC 05 - the very real prospect of a sharp drop in oil prices has limited
investments in alternatives that can compete economically with $60 oil
John W. Schoen, [Senior producer for msnbc], “Alternative energy slow to take hold”, MSNBC, July 28,
2005, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7549530/ns/business-oil_and_energy/2/, (ETHOS)
“We’re not so naïve to think those incentives are going to be there forever,” Stempel said. “So we’ve
been focused on how do we get our costs down to where we can get a good profit without incentives.”
The switch to alternatives has also been slowed by the heavy capital investment required
to increase production — sometimes with a payback of decades. Oil prices have surged
before, only to crash to levels that destroy the economics of alternatives. Even today, the
very real prospect of a sharp drop in oil prices — if not on the scale of the oil price
crashes of the mid-80s and late 90s — has limited investments in alternatives that can
compete economically with $60 oil.”

Gregory Meyer and Spencer Swartz 08 - The shift to lower petroleum prices also
impeded the development of renewable energy for about two decades
Gregory Meyer and Spencer Swartz, [both are writers for the Dow Dones newswire], “ENERGY
MATTERS: Saudi Fears Of High Oil Prices Fade With Demand”, May 5, 2008,
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/ENERGY-MATTERS--Saudi-Fears-Of-High-Oil-Prices-Fade-With-
Demand/2008-05-05/Article.aspx?oid=607481, (ETHOS)
“The 1986 oil price crash ushered in more than 15 years of mostly-lower crude prices, instilling a
memory of economic hardship on the western oil industry that continues to be reflected in Big Oil's
caution during these heady times. The shift to lower petroleum prices also impeded the
development of renewable energy for about two decades. In his book, The Prize, Daniel
Yergin compared the Saudi tactic in the 1980s to power plays by John Rockefeller and
other heavyweights in the history of oil who have used a "good sweating" to drive out
competitors. "No one is worrying about over-supply," Yergin said in an interview. Instead, the
market is preoccupied with meeting growth in China, India and other fast-developing economies.”
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5. Generic: Precedent for ↑ Oil Prices = Renewables R&D

- ASIA (General)

Associated Foreign Press 05 – High global oil prices are spurring Asian
governments into accelerating their search for alternative power sources
Associated Foreign Press, “High oil prices spurring Asia to seek alternative energy sources: officials”,
March 3 2005, http://www.mywire.com/a/AFP/High-oil-prices-spurring-Asia/739282/?
extID=10037&oliID=229&tag=mywire-article, (ETHOS)
“SINGAPORE, (AFP) — High global oil prices are spurring Asian governments into
accelerating their search for alternative power sources and encouraging energy
conservation, regional officials said here. Governments are increasingly diversifying their
"fuel mix" to cut dependence on imported oil by developing other power sources such as
natural gas, geo-thermal, hydro, liquefied natural gas and renewable fuels, they said.
Speaking at the annual Asia Power Conference here, the Southeast Asian energy officials said the
region's oil-importing countries were helpless to influence soaring global prices and must learn to live
with the situation. World crude prices shot to a four-month high above 53 dollars a barrel in New
York on Wednesday amid persistent market concerns over growing global demand, especially from
fast-growing Asian economic giants China and India.”

International Herald Tribune 07 - High crude oil prices are spurring interest in
biofuels projects as investors seek renewable energy
Leony Aurora, “Biofuel venture initiated BUSINESS ASIA by Bloomberg”, International Herald Tribune,
January 10, 2007, <accessed via Highbeam>, |http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-133218857.html|,
(ETHOS)
“China National Offshore Oil, the third-largest Chinese oil company, plans to partner
with Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology to invest $5.5 billion in biofuel projects in
Indonesia, the companies said Tuesday. The two companies along with Hong Kong
Energy will invest in the planting of oil palm, cassava and crops that can be used to make
biofuels in Papua and Borneo, the companies said in a joint statement in Jakarta. The investment
will be made over eight years. High crude oil prices are spurring interest in biofuels projects
as investors seek renewable energy.”

- INDONESIA

International Herald Tribune 06 - Indonesia plans to invest $22 billion, over the
next five years to promote the use of alternative fuels
Leony Aurora, and Claire Leow, “Indonesia tests fuel alternative in palm oil Promoting biofuels is a $22
billion effort BUSINESS ASIA by Bloomberg”, International Herald Tribune, July 14, 2006, <accessed via
HighBeam>, | http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-126325639.html|, (ETHOS)
“Indonesia plans to invest 200 trillion rupiah, or $22 billion, over the next five years to
promote the use of alternative fuels using crops such as palm oil, Energy Minister Purnomo
Yusgiantoro said Thursday. About $6 billion will be spent securing 6 million hectares, or 14.8 million
acres, of land, in an as-yet-unspecified location, and the rest will fund factories, roads and other
supporting services, he said. Plant-based fuels can be mixed with gasoline, diesel and
kerosene, now subsidized by the government. Biofuel ''can replace fuel in the
transportation sector,'' Purnomo said Thursday at an event in Jakarta to promote biofuel. It also
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helps communities raise their level of fuel self- sufficiency and creates jobs, he said. Indonesia,
Southeast Asia's biggest oil producer and user, still imports a third of its fossil-fuel
requirements, and the government wants to use more vegetable oils to reduce overseas
purchases of petroleum and refined products.”

International Herald Tribune 06 - Higher crude oil prices, which have tripled since
2002, are spurring greater government and investor interest in biofuels worldwide
Leony Aurora, and Claire Leow, “Indonesia tests fuel alternative in palm oil Promoting biofuels is a $22
billion effort BUSINESS ASIA by Bloomberg”, International Herald Tribune, July 14, 2006, <accessed via
HighBeam>, | http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-126325639.html|, (ETHOS)
“Higher crude oil prices, which have tripled since 2002, are spurring greater government
and investor interest in biofuels worldwide. Global supply of biofuels may almost double
in the next five years, the International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-using
nations, said Wednesday. The growth is ''a supply and policy response to high oil prices,''
the agency said. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said July 3 that Indonesia should focus on
making biofuels from four commodities, palm oil, cassava, jatropa, a plant that yields castor oil, and
sugar left over from processing. Indonesia is already the world's second-largest producer of palm oil,
the price of which has gained 5.6 percent since the year started to 1,497 ringgit, or $409, a metric ton.
Production may reach 15 million tons this year, Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil
Producers' Association, said on June 21.The government plans to spend about 51 trillion
rupiah over the next five years to develop land for more oil palm, rubber and cocoa
plantations to spur growth and create jobs, Supra Tamtama, deputy director for estate crops in
the Ministry of Agriculture, said June 29. Three-quarters of the funds will be for palm oil, he said.
Biofuels will account for 10 percent of the content in fuel products, Purnomo said Thursday.”

- NORWAY

Reuters 08 -
Camilla Bergsli, “Norway says oil price helps renewables push”, Reuters, June 12, 2008, <accessed
January 8, 2010>, http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL1256160020080612, (ETHOS)
“OSLO (Reuters) - High oil prices make life difficult in poorer countries but at the same
time also help fuel development of renewable energy sources, Norway's Energy and
Petroleum Minister Aaslaug Haga told Reuters on Thursday. "There are several dilemmas
regarding the high oil price," Haga said in an interview. "It makes it difficult for the poor
countries. At the same time renewable energy will be developed faster, which is good."
Norway is the world's fifth-largest exporter of oil and the second-biggest supplier of natural gas to
Europe.”