Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Division
Greece andEurope
Southeastern Europe
Greece and Southeastern
EconomicOutlook
and Financial Outlook
Economic and Financial
June 2007
No 62
1. Greece
2005*
Retail Sales
Turnover Index
Volume Index
Automobile sales
Tax on Mobile telephony
VAT Receipts
Total Consumption
Building activity (Permits)
Cement Production
Public Investment
Total Investments
Industrial Production
Composite Index
Manufacturing Production
PMI (manufacturing)
Exports goods & services
Imports goods & services
GDP (growth)
2006*
2007*
6.0%
3.0%
-3.0%
10,8%
2.8%
3.0%
35.2%
2.4%
-21.0%
0.0%
10.8%
8.0%
0.5%
11.8%
12.0%
3.3%
-19,5%
3.1%
8.8%
12.7%
8.3%
4.4%
3.5%
116.2%
13.0%
2.8%
2.2%
-3.6%
31.5%
15.8%
Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar
Jan-Apr
Jan-Mar
Jan-May
Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar
Jan-Apr
Jan-Apr
Jan-Mar
-0.9%
-0.8%
51.5
3.7%
-2.1%
3.7%
0.5%
0.8%
52.4
5.4%
9.8%
4.2%
2.2%
2.0%
53.2
9.8%
15.1%
4.6%
Jan-Apr
Jan-Apr
Apr
Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Based on available data for the first four months of
2007, the Greek economy has once more surprised to
the upside with Q1 2007 growth of 4.6% (4.2% Q1
2006, 4.3% 2006) ahead of both our and broader
market expectations. Following the revision to the first
flash estimate, Q1 investment surged higher by 15.8%
(9.9% Q1 2006) and Exports by 9.8% (2.1% Q1 2006).
Private Consumption registered growth of 2.8% (3.4%
Q1 2006) while Government Consumption slowed with
growth of 2.6% (4.4% Q1 2006). However, Imports
surged as well, offsetting the beneficial impact from
exports, with growth of 15.1% (9.9% Q1 2006). Once
7000
70
6000
60
5000
50
4000
40
3000
30
2000
20
1000
10
0
1998
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
Index
6m Moving Avg
-6%
-6%
-8%
CONJUNCTURAL INDICATORS
Retail sales volume has averaged growth of 4.7%
between 1998 and 2006 and for Q1 2007 posted a solid
4.4% increase supporting private consumption growth.
Registrations of Private new passenger vehicles grew
also briskly, up 3.5% for Jan-Apr 2007 (-0.3% Jan-Apr
2006). Retail business confidence picked up once
more as the index rose to 130.0 in April 2007, after
reaching a seven year high of 132.6 in February 2007.
Residential construction activity - as measured by
the volume (m3) of building permits - registered growth
of 2.2% in Q1 2007, compared with the 13.6% increase
in Q1 2006. In fact, building permits issued in 20052007 period support growth in residential investment,
which reached 32.3% in 2006 and is expected to reach
6.5% in 2007. Demand for new housing investment has
also been boosted by the continued high growth rate of
mortgage lending (25.5% by end-March 2007). The
construction business confidence index surged to
106.2 in May 2007, from 103.7 in April 2007.
Manufacturing production recorded solid 2.0%
growth for the Jan-Apr 2007 period continuing the 2006
recovery (+0.8% growth). This positive development is
-8%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
PUBLIC FINANCES
With respect to the implementation of the 2007
Budget, data for Jan-April 2007 reflect the following:
(a) Net current revenues reached 14.0 billion in JanApr 2007, up 4.9% yoy compared to the budgeted
increase of 6.2%. This outcome is considered to be
satisfactory given the high base-effect, with net current
revenues having increased by 14.3% in Jan-Apr 2006.
Furthermore, tax rebates surged by 43.8% in Jan-April
2007, with a budgeted fall of -8.0%. These data
indicate that the budgeted 6.2% current revenue
growth for 2007 can be reached, following the subpar growth of 5.8% in 2002-2006.
(b) Current primary expenditure reached 14.03
billion in Jan-Apr 2007, up 10.7% yoy (3.1% Jan-April
2006) and remains above the budgeted increase of
7.4%. The surge in current primary expenditure during
the first four months of 2007 is mainly due to the
payment of an additional 110 million rebate of the 2nd
instalment of accumulated taxes on pensions (LAFKA),
the payment of an additional 377 million to OGA for
GREECE AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK PAGE 3
2004
-25.44
12.65
38.09
15.47
10.35
13.31
-4.38
6.02
-8.33
4.95%
5.47
2005
-25.56
14.20
41.76
15.50
10.84
13.87
-5.68
5.15
-12.59
6.95%
5.49
1.4
INFLATION
In May 2007 headline CPI inflation rose by 2.6% and
core inflation by 2.9%. Average headline and core
inflation ended 2006 at 3.2% and 2.7% respectively,
from 3.5% and 3.1% respectively in 2005. The relatively
high core inflation is mainly due to indirect tax increases
(the Alcohol and Tobacco sub-index has averaged over
10% yoy growth since October 2006, contributing an
average 0.45pps), as well as the second-round effects
from high energy prices and high ULC growth. In the
following months, CPI inflation is expected to decline
further to 2.5% in July and thereafter, the impact of
unfavourable base effects could see the rate increasing
to 3.0%-3.1% in Sep-Dec 2007, bringing average 2007
inflation to 2.8% yoy.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The current account deficit (including capital
transfers) reached 20.6 billion or 10.6% of GDP in
2006, having increased by 8 billion or 63.6% from
2005. Data for Jan-Apr 2007 showed a deficit of 9.9
1.4
Germany
1.3
1.3
Greece
USA
1.2
Ireland
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0.8
60%
60%
Consumer loans
Loans to Businesses
Mortgages
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
2001
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
5.0%
2004
4.5%
2007
4.0%
2003
3.5%
3.0%
2006
2005
2.5%
Source: Bloomberg
2.0%
1m 3m 6m 9m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 15yr 20yr 30yr
Southeastern Europe
2. Romania
The economic outlook remains positive for 2007 with
private consumption and investment remaining in the
driving seat on the back of: (a) rapid wage growth, (b)
public and EU-related investment projects (c) large
inflows of foreign capital, both direct and portfolio based
and (d) rapid credit expansion supported by declining
interest rates.
Government
and
central
bank
policy
remain
expansionary, with falling domestic interest rates despite
high credit growth and with high wage growth and a
budget deficit, despite high inflation and recent
commitments to reduce the size of the government
deficit.
Romanias economy rebounded from the 2005 floodinduced economic slow down, registering growth of
7.7% in 2006. The driving force remained private
consumption (70% of GDP), with an increase of 13.8%
in 2006 supported by solid wage growth and rapid
credit expansion. It is also projected to grow by 11.9%
in 2007. Also, the strength of investment (23% of GDP),
which grew by 16.1% in 2006, was due to post-flood
reconstruction activity, strong FDI inflows and
accession related public infrastructure spending. The
investment outlook remains positive, with a projected
14.6% growth in 2007. On the other hand, net exports
remained a drag on the economy having subtracted 6.4
pps from GDP growth in 2006. Exports of Goods and
Services remained strong growing by 10.6%, but were
unable to keep pace with the growth in Imports of
Goods and Services of 23%. Assuming the current
political deadlock does not feed into a substantial slow
down in the reform process, the outlook for 2007 is for
growth of around 6.5%.
In 2006 the general government deficit reached to
1.9% of GDP (bellow the targeted 2.5% of GDP)
despite higher than expected revenues. This was due
to high increases in public wages, government
consumption and social transfers. The deficit would
have been even higher, had the government achieved
its expenditure plans for 2006 on infrastructure projects.
With the 2007 budget geared towards a pro-cyclical
expansion, the deficit may increase to 3.2% of GDP.
The strong economic growth provides a boost to
government revenues via increased direct tax receipts
and improved tax collection. This is offset though via
the decision to relax spending, leading to substantially
higher current expenditure. Public sector debt,
however, is maintained to around 13% of GDP.
CPI inflation declined to 4.9% in December 2006 (with
average inflation 6.6% in 2006), staying within the
central banks target range of 4-6%. Inflation is forecast
at 4.5% in 2007, with a 3%-5% central bank target. It
fell to 3.8% in April, but is still high, taking into account
the 11% appreciation of the Lei vs Euro since the end
of 2006 (18% since the end of 2004) and the 34%
appreciation against the dollar since the end of 2004.
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.29
0.25
0.24
0.23
2004
2005
2006
2007
25%
23%
0.30
20%
18%
15%
0.28
13%
Key Policy Rate (LHS)
10%
8%
0.27
0.26
5%
0.25
3%
Inflation (LHS)
0.24
0%
04/07
01/07
10/06
07/06
04/06
01/06
10/05
07/05
04/05
01/05
10/04
07/04
04/04
01/04
3. Bulgaria
25
23
23
Romania
20
20
18
18
15
15
13
13
Greece
10
10
Bulgaria
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
14%
Romania
12%
9%
12%
Maastricht
Criteria - 2.8%
7%
9%
7%
Bulgaria
4%
4%
2%
2%
Eurozone
-1%
-1%
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007
Bulgaria has reaffirmed that it will look to join the ERMII this summer, but has postponed entry into the
Eurozone until 2012, two years later than initially stated.
Bulgaria already meets the Maastricht Criteria as
relates to the budget deficit, government debt and
interest rates. The last hurdle remaining on the way to
adopting the Euro is inflation (see graph above).
GREECE AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK PAGE 7
4. Cyprus
7%
6%
Maastricht Criteria
5%
7%
Core
HICP 6m Avg
Core 6m Avg
HICP
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
5. Serbia
6. Albania
39.5%
32.9%
0.0%
0.0%
31.8%
0.2%
-0.6%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.5%
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
8. Turkey
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
2.15
17.5
8%
8%
17.0
2.10
2.05
16.5
Headline
Core
7%
7%
6%
6%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2.00
16.0
1.95
15.5
1.90
15.0
1.85
1.80
14.5
1.75
14.0
2.25
2.20
18.0
1.70
13.5
1.65
13.0
1.60
12.5
2005
1.55
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
3.8
5.7
3.7
6.9
-0.1
10.9
0.1
3.6
2.3
6.0
16.9
-5.2
-9.7
4.8
13.7
10.9
18.3
-0.4
10.4
1.3
3.5
2.3
1.2
19.5
-6.2
-10.0
4.7
5.7
3.6
8.0
1.2
11.0
2.9
2.9
3.5
4.0
19.5
-7.9
-9.5
3.7
-1.4
-4.4
0.5
-0.8
10.4
1.3
3.5
5.9
4.1
21.8
-5.5
-9.2
4.3
12.7
21.6
3.5
1.4
9.3
2.4
3.2
6.9
4.6
20.6
-2.6
-10.9
3.9
8.5
8.9
8.0
2.5
8.3
1.8
2.8
2.0
4.0
18.0
-2.4
-9.9
2005
IV
II
III
IV
3.0
35.2
-0.8
4.1
13.6
0.9
6.6
13.1
1.0
8.1
4.6
0.7
8.0
-19.5
0.8
4.4 (03/07)
2.2 (03/07)
3.0 (03/07)
21.8
28.7
33.5
14.7
3.7
22.3
28.6
33.6
15.4
4.2
22.1
25.9
32.3
15.9
2.9
22.3
24.4
29.9
17.6
6.5
20.6
23.9
25.8
16.6
3.7
19.9 (03/07)
22.7 (03/07)
25.5 (03/07)
15.9 (03/07)
3.3 (03/07)
3.7
3.0
7.7
17.8
3.3
2.5
9.2
15.7
3.2
2.5
8.6
14.2
3.4
2.7
6.8
11.8
2.9
3.0
2.2
2.5 (04/07)
3.0 (04/07)
0.7 (03/07)
0.87
6.93
12.31
4.73
2.63
3.56
0.92
7.02
12.52
4.75
2.95
3.77
0.96
7.12
12.62
4.81
3.31
4.28
0.99
7.24
12.71
4.89
3.62
4.19
1.06
7.32
12.86
5.09
3.86
4.03
1.11 (03/07)
7.45 (03/07)
13.06 (03/07)
5.13 (03/07)
4.25 (04/07)
4.40 (04/07)
3.8
2.9
1.7
2.8
-0.2
4.2
3.4
9.9
2.1
5.7
4.2
3.9
17.1
2.9
13.1
4.5
3.3
10.7
7.8
8.7
4.4
2.8
13.6
8.3
11.8
4.6 (03/07)
2.8 (03/07)
15.8 (03/07)
9.8 (03/07)
15.1 (03/07)
14,200.9
41,747.8
-27,546.9
15,548.0
56.4
-12,298.9
-679.0
7,323.6
3,652.3
12,791.4
-9,139.0
1,876.5
20.5
-7,262.5
422.9
1,009.0
8,036.0
25,763.8
-17,727.8
4,959.2
30.0
-12,768.6
1,009.8
2,113.9
12,176.1
38,247.2
-26,071.1
12,099.6
46.4
-13,971.5
888.2
5,646.8
16,154.3
51,440.6
-35,286.3
14,687.2
41.6
-20,599.0
953.8
8,115.4
3.796,9 (03/07)
13.266,2 (03/07)
-9.469,4 (03/07)
2.375,3 (03/07)
41.6
-7.094,1 (03/07)
-2.051,8 (03/07)
11.051,9 (03/07)
3,663.9
31.5
67.9
4,122.3
44.4
76.3
3,693.8
20.7
70.9
3,931.1
16.2
73.6
4,394.1
19.9
80.9
4.973,2 (05/07)
32,5 (05/07)
90,0 (05/07)
Quarterly Data
Economic Activity (period average)
Retail Sales Volume
Construction Activity
Industrial Production (Manufacturing)
Credit Expansion (end of period)
Private Sector
Consumer Credit+Other
Housing
Business
Tourism
Prices (end of period)
Consumer Price Index
Core Inflation
Producer Price Index
Dwelling Price Index (17 urban areas)
Interest Rates (period average)
2006
Period
(cumulative)
Savings
Short-term Business Loans
Consumer Loans (up to 1 year)
Housing Loans (over 5 years)
12 month Treasury Bill
10 year Bond Yield
National Accounts
Real GDP
Final Consumption
Investment
Exports
Imports
Balance of Payments (in mn - Cumulative)
Exports of Goods
Imports of Goods
Trade Balance
Balance of Services
Balance of Services / Trade Account (%)
Current Account
Direct Investments
Portfolio Investments
Athens Stock Exchange (end of period)
Composite Index
% change
Market Capitalization ASE (% of GDP)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
5.2
8.4
7.7
8.6
8.4
8.5
14.6
-4.9
11.1
13.9
4.1
9.6
9.0
12.6
8.1
7.7
13.8
2.5
16.1
10.6
6.7
11.9
4.8
14.6
9.4
6.3
9.9
5.1
13.7
8.1
16.0
15.3
7.0
22.1
11.9
8.1
16.6
9.1
7.2
23.0
6.6
7.4
21.6
4.6
7.2
17.1
4.5
7.1
32.1
33.6
-1.5
21.5
31.1
32.6
-1.5
18.8
32.4
33.7
-1.4
15.9
30.1
38.8
-1.9
12.4
30.4
39.8
-3.2
12.8
31.0
40.4
-3.2
13.1
17.7
-
37.9
19.1
-
45.8
8.4
-
54.5
7.4
7.3
47.9
-
-4.8
-7.6
-5.0
-8.7
-8.7
-9.8
-10.3
-12.1
-12.1
-13.9
-12.3
-14.8
Bulgaria
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to Non-Government
Short-Term Interest Rate
Long-term Interest Rate
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
5.0
5.5
7.7
13.9
10.7
16.4
2.3
13.7
6.6
5.9
3.8
13.5
12.7
14.5
6.1
12.0
6.2
6.1
2.8
23.3
8.5
13.1
6.0
10.1
6.1
7.5
2.4
17.6
9.0
15.1
7.4
9.0
6.1
7.8
3.5
16.0
10.0
12.1
4.2
8.2
6.2
8.0
4.0
14.0
9.6
11.6
4.3
7.4
40.0
40.9
-0.9
45.9
41.4
39.3
2.2
37.9
41.4
39.5
1.9
29.2
39.9
36.6
3.3
22.8
39.3
37.3
2.0
20.9
39.6
37.6
2.0
19.0
48.3
48.7
32.3
24.6
3.7
6.4
3.7
5.3
3.6
3.8
3.1
4.4
Turkey
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
1.8
2.0
6.0
1.2
-0.7
4.2
6.3
-5.5
10.0
5.1
3.9
4.7
3.4
2.7
4.7
3.8
4.0
2.4
5.2
2.1
3.8
3.5
3.5
4.8
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.9
4.8
4.0
-1.0
4.0
4.1
9.6
1.9
4.6
3.1
2.0
5.2
2.2
2.2
4.7
3.6
1.3
4.8
3.9
2.0
4.8
38.8
45.1
-6.3
69.1
38.8
42.9
-4.1
70.3
41.2
43.6
-2.3
69.2
42.4
43.9
-1.5
65.3
42.6
44.0
-1.4
61.5
42.6
43.9
-1.4
54.8
-2.2
-23.9
-5.0
-25.6
-5.6
-25.0
-5.9
-27.0
-5.6
-26.8
-5.4
-26.6
Serbia
Real Economy
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to non-government
Repo rate
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
FDI
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 (e)
2007 (f)
4.5
21.2
2.3
11.3
9.3
9.5
6.3
17.7
5.5
12.0
5.0
8.1
13.3
14.6
18.5
42.8
47.3
-4.5
85.4
42.7
46.0
-3.3
79.2
44.5
44.8
-0.3
60.2
44.4
43.5
0.8
52.1
44.6
42.2
2.6
45.9
3.0
41.1
49.6
9.7
25.1
10.6
47.9
16.3
62.6
15.9
33.7
-
-12.9
15.5
40.7
-25.2
3.6
-12.3
14.8
38.4
-23.6
6.8
-14.8
16.6
46.8
-30.2
4.2
-10.2
19.3
43.8
-24.5
7.7
-10.8
22.6
47.7
-25.0
6.5
-9.3
-24.1
-
-5.5
-13.7
-6.6
-14.9
-12.0
-20.2
-15.8
-21.5
-16.6
-22.1
-17.2
-22.7
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Cyprus
2008 (f)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
5.8
7.2
-2.4
10.0
16.0
27.1
25.3
10.5
8.9
10.6
0.5
32.4
12.5
24.7
10.1
10.3
7.4
9.1
2.4
24.0
8.5
11.5
8.1
10.2
6.1
5.2
9.6
14.0
8.5
7.1
9.3
9.9
4.9
3.8
9.0
11.2
6.7
6.0
8.2
9.9
5.9
5.0
3.5
10.9
6.4
5.5
5.8
9.6
-11.3
85.1
-5.8
76.9
-0.3
69.6
-0.6
60.7
-2.2
56.6
-1.8
54.3
-3.4
-8.1
-5.2
-10.3
-6.3
-10.9
-7.7
-9.9
-7.2
-9.0
-6.6
-8.1
FYROM
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
2.8
-
4.1
-
3.8
-
3.1
4.0
3.0
9.0
15.2
4.3
4.5
3.0
12.0
14.5
5.3
4.6
3.0
15.0
15.9
1.1
36.7
-0.4
37.2
0.5
37.3
14.5
3.2
36.6
13.5
2.0
35.8
14.3
2.5
34.7
-1.1
42..9
0.0
40.0
0.2
46.9
-0.6
39.5
-1.2
32.9
-1.5
31.8
-3.2
-18.4
-7.7
-20.7
-1.4
-16.2
-0.7
-17.6
-2.0
-19.3
-2.6
-20.5
Albania
Real Economy
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to non-government
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
FDI
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 (e)
2007 (f)
2.9
5.2
5.7
2.4
5.9
2.9
5.5
2.5
5.0
2.5
6.0
3.0
24.7
31.4
-6.6
65.0
24.5
29.0
-4.5
61.8
24.1
29.2
-5.1
56.5
24.6
28.3
-3.8
54.9
24.6
28.7
-4.1
55.0
24.7
28.2
-3.5
54.5
41.0
31.1
36.9
69.1
43.2
35.3
-10.0
20.5
46.3
-25.9
3.0
-8.1
20.8
45.9
-25.1
3.2
-5.5
21.5
43.2
-21.7
4.6
-7.0
21.9
45.1
-23.2
2.9
-8.1
22.7
46.2
-23.5
3.2
-7.3
23.6
46.2
-22.5
3.1
This report reflects the opinions of the analysts of Alpha Banks Economic Research Division. Any information in this report is based on
data obtained from sources considered to be reliable; Alpha Bank takes no responsibility for any individual investment decisions based
thereon.
No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without the permission of the publisher.
Please address any comments or inquiries to: Michael Massourakis, Group Chief Economist
Economic Research Division, Panepistimiou 43, Athens GR
Tel: (+30) 210-326-2828 Fax: (+30) 210-326-2812
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OUTLOOK
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