Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Division
Greece andEurope
Southeastern Europe
Greece and Southeastern
EconomicOutlook
and Financial Outlook
Economic and Financial
August 2007
No 63
1. GREECE
Investment-led
2005*
Retail Sales
Turnover Index
Volume Index
Automobile sales
Tax on Mobile telephony
VAT Receipts
Total Consumption
Building activity (Permits)
Cement Production
Public Investment
Total Investments
Industrial Production
Composite Index
Manufacturing Production
PMI (manufacturing)
Capacity Utilization in Industry
Exports goods & services
Imports goods & services
GDP (growth)
2006*
2007*
6,0%
3,0%
-3.0%
10,8%
2.8%
3,0%
35.2%
2.4%
-21.0%
0.0%
10,8%
8,0%
0.5%
11,8%
12.0%
3,3%
-19,5%
3.1%
8.8%
12.7%
6,4%
2,9%
4.9%
114,9%
13,0%
2.8%
-4,5%
-6,7%
31.9%
10,5%
Jan-May
Jan-May
Jan-June
Jan-May
Jan-May
Jan-June
Jan-May
Jan-May
Jan-June
Jan-June
-0.9%
-0.8%
51.5
72,3%
3.7%
-2.1%
3.7%
0.5%
0.8%
52.4
76,2%
5,4%
9.8%
4.2%
1,8%
1,7%
54,0
76,4%
9.8%
9,7%
4,4%
Jan-June
Jan-June
July
June
Jan-June
Jan-June
Jan-June
16%
16%
14%
14%
YOY % Change
6m Moving Avg
12%
10%
12%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
2001
Index
6m Moving Avg
2002
2003
2004
-8%
2005
2006
2007
1.4
2004
-25,44
12,65
38,09
15,47
10,35
13,31
-4,38
-4,47
6,02
-8,33
4,95%
8,10
2005
-25,56
14,20
41,76
15,50
10,84
13,87
-5,68
-5,74
5,15
-12,59
6,95%
12,61
2006
-35,29
16,15
51,44
15,36
11,39
14,32
-7,12
-7,16
6,45
-20,60
-10,6%
20,36
Jan-June
2006
Jan-June
2007
-17,73
8,04
25,76
5,24
3,33
6,99
-3,54
-3,55
3,19
-12,83
-19,03
8,24
27,27
5,79
3,43
7,69
-4,48
-4,50
3,35
-14,37
13,51
14,54
60%
Mortgages
Consumer loans
Loans to Businesses
50%
40%
1.4
30%
1.3
1.3
Greece
1.2
1.2
20%
10%
Ireland
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
USA
0.9
0.9
Germany
0.8
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0.8
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
7000
70
6000
60
5000
50
4000
40
3000
30
2000
20
1000
10
0
1999
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2. ROMANIA
The economy slowed in Q1 2007 in line with the full year
growth forecast of 6.5%. Private consumption remained
strong, investment accelerated, while the negative impact of
the external sector remained a substantial drag on growth.
Headline
Food
1
-1
2005
2006
2007
Current Account
Trade balance
Exports (FOB)
Imports (FOB)
Services Balance
Income balance
Current transfers balance
Source: Reuters
H1 2007
-7.812
-7.832
14.105
-21.937
193
-2.413
2.240
H1 2006 % change
-3.744
108,7%
-4.423
77,1%
12.678
11,3%
-17.101
28,3%
220
-12,3%
-1.561
54,6%
2.020
10,9%
vs.
Euro
Dollar
Romanian Lei
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
4.7%
5.9%
-8.0%
-10.9%
2006
-8.2%
-17.6%
2005
-7.0%
6.8%
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
3. BULGARIA
The economy accelerated faster than anticipated up 6.2% in
Q1 2007, with both private consumption and investment
posting strong gains of 9.1% and 35.9% respectively. The
economy is set to continue its strong performance in 2007
and 2008 (GDP growth of 6.0% and 5.5% respectively).
Fiscal
13
Food
11
vs.
Euro
Dollar
H1 2006 % change
-1.840
54,1%
-2.205
45,2%
5.711
7,6%
-7.915
18,0%
33
530,5%
61 -132,1%
272
-33,5%
Bulgarian Lev
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
1.1%
-3.2%
2006
-10.6%
2005
15.3%
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
3
2005
2006
2007
4. CYPRUS
GDP Q1 growth was in line with the full year growth forecast
of 3.8%. Positive contributions were recorded once again by
private consumption and investment, while the impact of the
external sector worsened due to a slow down in export of
goods and services.
Determined
Having
vs.
Euro
Dollar
Cypriot Pound
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
0.2%
1.3%
0.6%
-2.6%
2006
0.5%
-9.9%
2005
-0.9%
13.7%
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
5. SERBIA
Despite
Political
Unemployment
The
The
vs.
Serbian Dinar
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
Euro
Dollar
0.6%
1.6%
-0.1%
-3.3%
2006
-7.0%
-16.6%
2005
8.6%
24.3%
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
6. ALBANIA
The
vs.
Euro
Dollar
Albanian Lek
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
-0.7%
0.4%
-1.2%
-4.3%
2006
0.4%
-9.9%
2005
-1.4%
13.0%
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
The
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
vs.
FYROM Denar
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
Euro
Dollar
-0.8%
0.3%
0.7%
-2.5%
2006
0.1%
-10.2%
2005
-3.1%
11.4%
8. TURKEY
Solid external demand offset still weak private consumption
and investment leading to a jump in Q1 growth.
vs.
Euro
Dollar
Turkish Lira
02 Jul 07 - 01 Jan 07 22 Aug 07 02 Jul 07
2.5%
3.5%
-5.5%
-8.5%
2006
17.1%
5.0%
( - ) Appreciation ( + ) Depreciation
2.2
2.1
2
12%
1.8
11%
11%
1.7
10%
10%
1.6
1.6
Appreciation
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
Headline
Core
6%
5%
1.8
1.5
7%
2005
-13.1%
0.3%
1.9
recent months. This follows the surge to 21-22% in mid2006 from 14% earlier that year. Credit expansion has
continued to slow with growth at end Q1 2007 of 34.6%
vs. 51% a year earlier, with corporate and household
credit rising by 33.7% and 36.2% respectively.
Depreciation
higher, but below the rate of inflation) due to the slowdown in domestic demand will contribute to the
widening of the government general deficit to higher
than 2.2% of GDP in 2007, from the 0.6% recorded in
2006. Central Government Gross Debt remained
relatively unchanged from 2006 at TRL 341 billion due
to the repayment of IMF debt and the appreciation of
the Lira. General Government Gross debt has been
steadily declining since 2003 and is forecast to fall to
56.6% of GDP in 2007.
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
Jan 2006
1.2
Jul 2006
Jan 2007
Jul 2007
6%
5%
4%
4%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
3.8
5.7
3.7
6.9
-0.1
10.9
0.1
3.6
2.3
6.0
16.9
-5.2
-9.7
4.8
13.7
10.9
18.3
-0.4
10.4
1.3
3.5
2.3
1.2
19.5
-6.2
-10.0
4.7
5.7
3.6
8.0
1.2
11.0
2.9
2.9
3.5
4.0
19.5
-7.9
-9.5
3.7
-1.4
-4.4
0.5
-0.8
10.4
1.3
3.5
5.9
4.1
21.8
-5.5
-9.2
4.3
12.7
21.6
3.5
1.4
9.3
2.4
3.2
6.9
3,1
20.6
-2.6
-10.9
4,1
10,5
10,0
11,0
1,8
8.3
1.8
2,7
2.0
3,0
18.0
-2.4
-9.9
2005
IV
II
III
IV
2007
I
3.0
35.2
-0.8
4.1
13.6
0.9
6.6
13.1
1.0
8.1
4.6
0.7
8.0
-19.5
0.8
4,4
2,2
3,4
2,9 (05/07)
-4,5 (05/07)
1,8 (05/07)
21.8
28.7
33.5
14.7
3.7
22.3
28.6
33.6
15.4
4.2
22.1
25.9
32.3
15.9
2.9
22.3
24.4
29.9
17.6
6.5
20.6
23.9
25.8
16.6
3.7
19,9
22,0
25,5
15,9
3,3
19.6 (05/07)
23,4 (05/07)
25.0 (05/07)
15.4 (05/07)
3.3 (05/07)
3.7
3.0
7.7
17.8
3.3
2.5
9.2
15.7
3.2
2.5
8.6
14.2
3.4
2.7
6.8
11.8
2.9
3.0
2.2
10,5
2,7
3,2
0,7
7,0
2.5 (07/07)
2,9 (07/07)
1,8 (06/07)
7,0 (03/07)
0.87
6.93
12.31
4.73
2.63
3.56
0.92
7.02
12.52
4.75
2.95
3.77
0.96
7.12
12.62
4.81
3.31
4.28
0.99
7.24
12.71
4.89
3.62
4.19
1.06
7.32
12.86
5.09
3.86
4.03
1,10
7,37
13,06
5,14
3,93
4,26
1.13 (05/07)
7.47 (05/07)
13.18 (05/07)
5.09 (05/07)
4.12 (05/07)
4.80 (06/07)
3.8
2.9
1.7
2.8
-0.2
4.2
3.4
9.9
2.1
5.7
4.2
3.9
17.1
2.9
13.1
4.5
3.3
10.7
7.8
8.7
4.4
2.8
13.6
8.3
11.8
4.6
2.8
15.8
9.8
15.1
4.2 (06/07)
2.8 (06/07)
4,9 (06/07)
9.9 (06/07)
4,4 (06/07)
14,200.9
41,747.8
-27,546.9
15,548.0
56.4
-12,298.9
-679.0
7,323.6
3,652.3
12,791.4
-9,139.0
1,876.5
20.5
-7,262.5
422.9
1,009.0
8,036.0
25,763.8
-17,727.8
4,959.2
30.0
-12,768.6
1,009.8
2,113.9
12,176.1
38,247.2
-26,071.1
12,099.6
46.4
-13,971.5
888.2
5,646.8
16,154.3
51,440.6
-35,286.3
14,687.2
41.6
-20,599.0
953.8
8,115.4
3.796,9
13.266,2
-9.469,4
2.375,3
30.0
-7.094,1
-2.051,8
11.051,9
8.239,7 (06/07)
27.271,0 (06/07)
-19.031,4 (06/07)
4.659,6 (06/07)
24,5 (06/07)
-14.371,7 (06/07)
-2.192,0 (06/07)
13.210,8 (06/07)
3,663.9
31.5
67.9
4,122.3
44.4
76.3
3,693.8
20.7
70.9
3,931.1
16.2
73.6
4,394.1
19.9
80.9
4.643,1
12,6
85,3
4.917,5 (07/07)
31,2 (07/07)
90,7 (07/07)
Quarterly Data
Economic Activity (period average)
Retail Sales Volume
Construction Activity
Industrial Production (Manufacturing)
Credit Expansion (end of period)
Private Sector
Consumer Credit+Other
Housing
Business
Tourism
Prices (end of period)
Consumer Price Index
Core Inflation
Producer Price Index
Dwelling Price Index (17 urban areas)
Interest Rates (period average)
2006
Period
(cumulative)
Savings
Short-term Business Loans
Consumer Loans (up to 1 year)
Housing Loans (over 5 years)
12 month Treasury Bill
10 year Bond Yield
National Accounts
Real GDP
Final Consumption
Investment
Exports
Imports
Balance of Payments (in mn - Cumulative)
Exports of Goods
Imports of Goods
Trade Balance
Invisibles Balance
Invisibles Balance / Trade Account (%)
Current Account
Direct Investments
Portfolio Investments
Athens Stock Exchange (end of period)
Composite Index
% change
Market Capitalization ASE (% of GDP)
2003
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to Non-Government
Short-Term Interest Rate
Long-term Interest Rate
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
5.2
8.4
7.7
8.6
8.4
8.5
14.6
-4.9
11.1
13.9
4.1
9.6
9.0
12.6
8.1
7.7
13.8
2.5
16.1
10.6
6.5
11.5
4.8
14.5
9.4
5.8
9.9
5.1
13.7
8.1
16.0
15.3
7.0
22.1
11.9
8.1
16.6
9.1
7.2
23.0
6.6
7.4
21.6
3.7
7.2
17.1
3.5
7.1
32.1
33.6
-1.5
21.5
31.1
32.6
-1.5
18.8
32.4
33.7
-1.4
15.9
30.1
38.8
-1.9
12.4
30.4
41.7
-3.2
12.8
31.0
40.4
-3.2
13.1
17.7
-
37.9
19.1
-
45.8
8.4
-
54.5
7.4
7.3
47.8
-
44.0
-
-4.8
-7.6
-5.0
-8.7
-8.7
-9.8
-10.3
-12.1
-12.1
-13.9
-12.3
-14.8
Bulgaria
2003
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to Non-Government
Short-Term Interest Rate
Long-term Interest Rate
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
5.0
5.5
7.7
13.9
10.7
16.4
2.3
13.7
6.6
5.9
3.8
13.5
12.7
14.5
6.1
12.0
6.2
6.1
2.8
23.3
8.5
13.1
6.0
10.1
6.1
7.5
2.4
17.6
9.0
15.1
7.4
9.0
6.0
7.8
3.5
16.0
10.0
12.1
4.2
8.2
5.5
8.0
4.0
14.0
9.6
11.6
4.3
7.4
40.0
40.9
-0.9
45.9
41.4
39.3
2.2
37.9
41.4
39.5
1.9
29.2
39.9
36.6
3.3
22.8
39.3
37.3
2.0
20.9
39.6
37.6
2.0
19.0
48.3
48.7
32.3
24.6
3.7
6.4
3.7
5.3
3.6
3.8
3.1
4.4
-6.6
-14.9
-12.0
-20.2
-15.9
-21.5
-18.0
-22.1
-17.2
-22.7
Turkey
Credit to Non-Government
General Government (%GDP)
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
1.8
2.0
6.0
1.2
-0.7
4.2
6.3
-5.5
10.0
5.1
3.9
4.7
3.4
2.7
4.7
3.8
4.0
2.4
5.2
2.1
3.8
3.5
3.5
4.8
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.9
4.8
4.0
-1.0
4.0
4.1
9.6
1.9
4.6
3.1
2.0
5.2
2.2
2.2
4.7
3.6
2.0
4.8
3.9
2.1
4.8
38.8
45.1
-6.3
69.1
38.8
42.9
-4.1
70.3
41.2
43.6
-2.3
69.2
42.4
43.9
-1.5
65.3
42.6
44.0
-1.4
61.5
42.6
43.9
-1.4
54.8
-2.2
-23.9
-5.0
-25.6
-5.6
-25.0
-5.9
-27.0
-5.6
-26.8
-5.4
-26.6
Serbia
Real Economy
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to non-government
Repo rate
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
FDI
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 (e)
2007 (f)
4.5
21.2
2.3
11.3
9.3
9.5
6.3
17.7
5.5
12.0
6.0
6.0
13.3
14.6
18.5
42.8
47.3
-4.5
85.4
42.7
46.0
-3.3
79.2
44.5
44.8
-0.3
60.2
44.4
43.5
0.8
52.1
44.6
42.2
2.6
45.9
3.0
41.1
49.6
9.7
25.1
10.6
47.9
16.3
62.6
15.9
33.7
-
27.8
-
-12.9
15.5
40.7
-25.2
3.6
-12.3
14.8
38.4
-23.6
6.8
-14.8
16.6
46.8
-30.2
4.2
-10.2
19.3
43.8
-24.5
7.7
-10.8
22.6
47.7
-25.0
6.5
-14.0
-24.1
-
-5.5
-13.7
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
Monetary
Cyprus
2008 (f)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
5.8
7.2
-2.4
10.0
16.0
27.1
25.3
10.5
8.9
10.6
0.5
32.4
12.5
24.7
10.1
10.3
7.4
9.1
2.4
24.0
8.5
11.5
8.1
10.2
6.1
5.2
9.6
14.0
8.5
7.1
9.3
9.9
4.9
3.8
9.0
11.2
6.7
6.0
8.2
9.9
5.9
5.0
3.5
10.9
6.4
5.5
5.8
9.6
31.2
31.4
54.5
53.9
40.1
-11.3
85.1
-5.8
76.9
-0.3
69.6
-0.6
60.7
-2.2
56.6
-1.8
54.3
-3.4
-8.1
-5.2
-10.3
-6.3
-10.9
-7.7
-9.9
-7.2
-9.0
-6.6
-8.1
FYROM
Real Economy
Real GDP
Private Consumption
Public Consumption
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Exports (Goods & Services)
Imports (Goods & Services)
Consumer Prices
Unemployment
General Government (%GDP)
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (f)
2008 (f)
2.8
-
4.1
-
3.8
-
3.1
4.0
3.0
9.0
15.2
4.3
4.5
3.0
12.0
14.5
5.3
4.6
3.0
15.0
15.9
1.1
36.7
-0.4
37.2
0.5
37.3
14.5
3.2
36.6
13.5
2.0
35.8
14.3
2.5
34.7
-1.1
42..9
0.0
40.0
0.2
46.9
-0.6
39.5
-1.2
32.9
-1.5
31.8
-3.2
-18.4
-7.7
-20.7
-1.4
-16.2
-0.7
-17.6
-2.0
-19.3
-2.6
-20.5
Albania
Real Economy
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
General Government (%GDP)
Revenue
Expenditure
Overall Balance
Gross Debt
Monetary
Credit to non-government
Balance of Payments (% GDP)
Current Account Balance
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
FDI
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 (e)
2007 (f)
2.9
5.2
5.7
2.4
5.9
2.9
5.5
2.5
5.0
2.5
6.0
3.0
24.7
31.4
-6.6
65.0
24.5
29.0
-4.5
61.8
24.1
29.2
-5.1
56.5
24.6
28.3
-3.8
54.9
24.6
28.7
-4.1
55.0
24.7
28.2
-3.5
54.5
41.0
31.1
36.9
69.1
43.2
35.3
-10.0
20.5
46.3
-25.9
3.0
-8.1
20.8
45.9
-25.1
3.2
-5.5
21.5
43.2
-21.7
4.6
-7.0
21.9
45.1
-23.2
2.9
-8.1
22.7
46.2
-23.5
3.2
-7.3
23.6
46.2
-22.5
3.1
This report reflects the opinions of the analysts of Alpha Banks Economic Research Division. Any information in this report is based on
data obtained from sources considered to be reliable; Alpha Bank takes no responsibility for any individual investment decisions based
thereon.
No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without the permission of the publisher.
Please address any comments or inquiries to: Michael Massourakis, Group Chief Economist
Economic Research Division, Panepistimiou 43, Athens, 10564 Greece
Tel: (+30) 210-326-2828 Fax: (+30) 210-326-2812
E-mail: dom@alpha.gr Web Site: www.alpha.gr
REECE AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
The next Greek and Southeastern Europe Economic and Financial Outlook will beGpublished
in October 2007.