Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
February 2014
List of contents
What is fertilizer?
p. 2
p. 16
Ammonia
Urea
Drivers of demand
Drivers of supply
Price relations
Production economics
Industrial applications
p. 26
p. 28
p. 33
p. 39
p. 42
p. 60
p. 67
p. 74
p. 80
What is fertilizer?
Calcium
YIELD
Potassium
Soil conditions
& other growth
factors
Phosphorus
Nutrient behavior
What is fertilizer?
Organic
substance,
humus
Mineralisation
K
Mg
Export of nutrients
with the harvest
Growing demand
for food & feed
Mineral fertilizers are necessary to replace those nutrients that have been removed from the field
16%
Potassium
(K)
Phosphorus
(P)
Application
Improve
crop quality
Annual
application
not always
done
Fewer suppliers,
production
discipline
Increase crop
size
Most important
and commonly
lacking nutrient
Annual
application
critical
Industry more
fragmented,
under
consolidation
More dynamic
prices, but stable
volume
23%
61%
Nitrogen
(N)
Industry structure
Yield, ton/ha
10.0
3,000
9.0
2,500
8.0
7.0
2,000
6.0
1,500
5.0
4.0
1,000
3.0
2.0
500
1.0
0
0.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Source: Winter wheat yield data: Long term trial, Broadbalk, Rothamsted (since 1856).
Seed
15 %
30%
Other
7%
25%
Fertilizer
24 %
Land
22 %
20%
15%
10%
Chemicals
4%
Labour
4%
5%
0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F
Urea (CON2H4)
Urea-N needs to be
converted into ammoniumN before it is plant
available.
Ammonium (NH4+)
Ammonium-N is fixed onto
clay minerals in the soil and
therefore immobile. The plant
roots have to grow actively
towards the nutrient.
Nitrate (NO3-)
Nitrate-N is always dissolved
in the soil water and is
transported passively together
with the water into the plant
root. Thus, nitrate is rapidly
effective.
10
100
75
50
4
25
0
0
AN
Urea
UAN
AN
Urea
Source: DEFRA (2006), NT26 project report; Fertilizer Europe; 2EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook (2007); Yara
11
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
Urea
UAN
CAN
CN
12
3,192
3,000
1,000
2,500
800
2,000
600
1,553
1,500
400
1,000
500
200
0
Wheat/UK
Oranges/Brazil
100
Wheat/UK
(160 kg N/ha)
Oranges/Brazil
(180 kg N/ha)
13
Fertilizer characteristics:
Organic compared to mineral fertilizer
Characteristics
Organic fertilizer
Mineral fertilizer
Nutrient
source
Nutrient
concentration
Low concentration
High concentration
Nutrient
availability
Variable
Quality
Often inconsistent
14
0.9%
35
0.8%
3%
7%
0.7%
30
10%
Oceania
33%
0.6%
25
0.5%
Latin America
20
0.4%
15
Europe
Asia
18%
North America
0.3%
Africa
10
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ha, billions
Source: Organic-world.net
29%
15
Ammonia plant
NH3
Air
CO2
Urea
HNO3
Rock
Ammonium nitrate
Nitrophosphate plant
Calcium nitrate
Salts of K, Mg, S
Rock
Rock
NPK fertilizers
H2PO4
DAP / MAP
17
100
80
60
40
20
0
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016F
18
35
China: 0.4% *
30
25
20
Europe: 1.6% *
North America: 0.0% *
15
10
5
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013F
2015F
2017F
* CAGR 12-17
19
Other
12 %
DAP/MAP
7%
Potash K2O
Other
2%
TSP
6%
AN/CAN
8%
UAN
5%
NPK
26 %
Phosphate P2O5
Urea
56 %
NPK
8%
SSP
10 %
NPK
20 %
29 million tons
Source: IFA 2012 (nutrient totals) and 2011 (product split) * Does not include industrial nitrogen applications
Other
9%
DAP/MAP
56 %
41 million tons
20
DAP/MAPOther
2%
9%
NPK
5%
Other
DAP/MAP 9%
2%
Other
8%
Urea
18%
Urea
22%
NPK
8%
NPK
16%
UAN
11%
Ammonia
27 %
UAN
27%
ABC
17%
Nitrates
43%
Nitrates
2%
NPK
3%
Urea
51%
DAP/MAP
18%
Urea
78%
Urea
67%
21
Other
12%
Other
12 %
Wheat
16%
Oilseeds
11%
Other cereal
5%
Maize
16%
Wheat
18 %
Rice
14%
Sugar crops
4%
Cotton
4%
NITROGEN
Rice
15 %
Sugar crops
4%
Cotton
4%
Roots/Tubers
3%
Oilseeds
7%
Maize
17 %
Other cereal
5%
22
EU-27
USA
Other
27%
Other
33%
Fruits &
vegtables
7%
Oilseeds
10%
Maize
49%
Other
Wheat
cereals
13%
3%
Fruits &
vegtables
2%
Wheat
28%
Maize
Other 13%
cereals
15%
Other
21%
Oilseeds
2%
Maize
7%
Sugar
crops
8%
Wheat
48%
Other
cereals
14%
Cotton Wheat
Fruits &
16%
3%
vegtables
Oilseeds
30%
6%
Wheat
Rice
14%
Maize 15%
15%
India
Brazil
Other
24%
Maize
25%
Other
30%
Rice
5%
Source: IFA 2010/11
Sugar
crops
22%
Fruits &
vegtables Cotton
4%
10%
Fruits &
vegtables
6%
Cotton
9%
Oilseeds
8%
China
Wheat
24%
Rice
30%
23
2012
PCS
K+S
ICL
CF
0
10
12
14
16
18
24
Global no 1 in nitrates
Global no 1 in NPK
complex fertilizer
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
5
0
Yara
CF
0
Yara Euroc. GDF
Acron Agrofert
ZAT Rossosh
25
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
50
2005
50
2004
60
2003
60
2012
70
2011
70
2010
80
2009
80
2008
90
2007
90
2006
100
2005
100
2004
110
2003
110
2002
Index
2001
Index
2002
2001
27
Mitigating factors
WTO accession
Regulatory regimes
Operational excellence
Ammonia
29
Ammonia production
10 largest producers
Total production
Million tons
60
160
50
140
40
120
30
100
20
80
10
Source: IFA
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Ukraine
Trinidad
USA
India
Indonesia
0
Russia
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China
Million tons
180
30
Ammonia trade
Million tons
25
Million tons
160
139
140
20
120
100
15
80
10
60
Yara trade
40
32
20
0
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
0
Fertilizer
Industrial use
Urea
Nitrates
DAP/MAP
NPK
Other N
Direct application
Total
Source: Fertecon
31
10 largest importers
Million tons
7.0
Million tons
5.0
4.5
4.5
6.2
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.5
3.2
3.0
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
1.6
0.7
0.7
1.2
0.5
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
Source: IFA
0.6
0.4
0.4
Belgium
France
Morocco
Korea
India
0.0
USA
Iran
Qatar
Egypt
Algeria
Indonesia
Canada
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Trinidad
0.0
0.7
Spain
0.8
Germany
1.0
1.0
1.8
2.0
1.2
Turkey
1.2
Taiwan
1.5
32
1.9
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.8
3.8
0.6
3.1
1.3
1.0
Source: IFA
IR Date: February 2014
0.4
Urea
34
10 largest producers
Million tons
180
Million tons
60
160
50
140
40
120
30
Source: IFA
IR Date: February 2014
6.2
USA
Russia
India
Indonesia
6.5
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.1
3.8
0
China
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6.9
Canada
10
Iran
80
Pakistan
20
Egypt
100
Qatar
22.5
35
10 largest exporters
Million tons
Million tons
9.0
8.0
7.0
8.0
6.9
8.0
7.1
7.0
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.0
5.0
3.6
4.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
1.8
2.0
Source: IFA
IR Date: February 2014
Mexico
Thailand
Brazil
USA
Indonesia
Canada
Egypt
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Ukraine
0.0
Qatar
0.0
Russia
1.0
China
1.0
India
1.0
1.5
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.8
France
1.4
2.3
Italy
2.0
Pakistan
2.2
Turkey
3.1
Australia
3.1
3.0
36
0.6
1.4
1.4
1.6
3.7
1.4
1.4
4.0
1.4
0.5
0.9
4.0
9.3
1.1
1.7
Source: IFA
1.3
37
Kilotons
8,000
2010
2012
7,000
Export tax
600
120 %
500
100 %
400
80 %
300
60 %
200
40 %
100
20 %
6,000
2013
5,000
2008
4,000
2011
2009
3,000
2,000
1,000
Source: BOABC
0%
* Export tax during low tariff period depends on price level with
40 yuan/t (~2%) representing the minimum tax level
38
40
525
516
600
545
477
500
400
500
200
300
240
185
200
341
300
200
175
8.9
6.7 7.0
7
5.5
4.4 4.1
4.0
3.7
2.8
3
2
65
54
60
40
261
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
7.1
6.7
6.4 6.4
5.9 5.6
6.3 6.0
5.9
5.6 5.7
73
80
04
80
5.9
240
97
100
03
120
8.9
187
164
244
0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
143
214
316
100
100
100
289
337
249
220 223
139
379
400
423 407
308
264
229 240 245
466
500
499
400
357
300
62
4
38
28
20
1
0
0
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
41
Revenue
drivers
Cost
drivers
Effect on
Grain inventories/prices
Urea demand
Urea supply
Urea price
Market segmentation
Value-added margins
Fixed cost
Unit cost
Drivers of demand
43
Fertilizer consumption
Population growth
Economic growth (improved diets)
More meat consumption in developing
countries
More protein-rich diets
More fruit and vegetables
Reduce hunger
Biofuels
Industrial consumption
Economic growth
Environmental limits (e.g. reduction of NOx
emissions)
44
Billions
2,500
12
10
2,000
3% drop in production
1,500
6
1,000
4
500
0
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Grain consumption
2,200
126
240
14
13
230
160
2,830
162
* Assumed 500 kcal/kg grain, 600 kcal/kg meat, meat/grain production factor of 3
** N, P and K demand. Average effective yield delivered to consumers of 2 ton cereal/ha; 120 kg fertilizer/ha
Source: McKinsey & Company
Historical
CAGR of 2,5%
(1998-2008)
45
46
World
2X
Poultry
EU
North America
4X
Pork
Latin America
Asia
7X
Beef
Africa
0
20
40
60
80
Kg/capita/year
Source: FAO
47
0.5
10
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Hectares/person
2000
2010 2020E
Population
Population (billion)
Hectares/person
48
49
Average 2009-2012
319 kg/capita
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
Average 2002-2003
289 kg/capita
270
260
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
50
Million tons
Days
2,500
85
2,450
80
2,400
2,350
75
2,300
2,250
70
2,200
2,150
65
2,100
2,050
60
2,000
55
1,950
06
07
08
09
10
Consumption
11
12
13E
Production
14F
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13E
14F
51
Increased production of
mineral fertilizers
necessary to meet future
nutrient demand
Tons of cereals
per hectare
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Mineral fertilizer
2.0
1.5
Organic fertilizers
1.0
0.5
0.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020E
52
Other
26%
United
States
32%
EU-27
20%
Other
32%
Ukraine
3%
EU-27
7%
Brazil
8%
US
10%
Russia
6%
China
24%
China
31%
China
5%
Other
10%
USA
35 %
Argentina
21%
Vietnam
6%
Bangladesh
Indonesia
7%
8%
India
14%
Other
27%
China
18%
India
21%
Brazil
30%
53
EU
107 mill ha
USA
160 mill ha
Maize (34.0)
Soybean (29.9)
Wheat (18.5)
168 kg/ha
3 kg/ha
84 kg/ha
Wheat (26.1)
Barley (11.9)
Maize (8.9)
China
116 kg/ha
112 mill ha
153 kg/ha
Maize (33.6)
Rice (30.3)
Wheat (24.3)
India
Brazil
157 mill ha
72 mill ha
Soybean (24.0)
5 kg/ha
Maize (13.2)
Sugarcane (9.6)
54 kg/ha
65 kg/ha
Rice (44.0)
113 kg/ha
Wheat (29.0)
Millet(10.7)
137 kg/ha
149 kg/ha
166 kg/ha
185 kg/ha
54
Wheat yields
Tons/Ha
Tons/Ha
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
US
Argentina
China
Brazil
Mexico
France
Rice yields
Tons/Ha
China
India
US
Russia
Soybean yields
Tons/Ha
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
3
3
2
2
1
1
China
Viet Nam
Indonesia
India
Bangladesh
0
Argentina
US
Brazil
China
India
55
2,000
FSU
Africa
1,500
Asia/Pacific
Latin America
1,000
EU-28
Canada
U.S.
500
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
56
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.0
US - maize for
ethanol
Source: IFA
Others
57
Cotton
19
HT + IR
41
Insect
resistance
(IR)
23
Source: ISAAA
Herbicide
tolerance
(HT)
100
Soybean
81
Maize
40
58
3.6 kg
CO2 eqv
PRODUCTION
TRANSPORTATION
0.1 kg
CO2
5.6 kg
CO2 eqv
FARMING
Application
Nitrates better than urea
Precision farming (N-tester etc.)
Balanced fertilization (NPK)
75 kg
CO2
75 kg
CO2
HARVEST
CONSUMPTION
CAPTURE
Yara 2010
59
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Drivers of supply
61
Intermediate
products
Finished
products
Industrial
products
H, Ar, CO etc
Industrial gases
C02
Ammonia
Ammonia
Urea
Environmental
products
Natural gas
Nitric acid
Nitric acid
Nitrates
Calcium
Nitrate
Industrial nitrogen
chemicals
62
450
400
350
300
GJ/tN
Cyanamid method
250
200
150
Haber-Bosch synthesis
100
50
0
1910
1915
1930
1950
1960
1975
2000
63
113
118
120
100
80
Chinas coal-fired
ammonia plants use 70%
more energy and emit 2.5
times more CO2
60
40
20
0
Yara
Europe
Europe
ex Yara
US
Romania &
Bulgaria
Russia
64
Driving regions
Excluding China
Qatar 26%
UAE 20%
Iran 28%
Algeria 26%
Algeria 23%
2013
2014
2015
Iran 12%
USA 38%
Nigeria 12%
USA 28%
Iraq 27%
2016
2017
~2.2%
~0.5%
~1.8%
2.1%
Source: Fertecon urea update December 2013 (August update in brackets). Consumption data source is IFA.
65
Business
development
Feasibility
phase
Gas
agreement
Concept
selection
phase
12-24 months
depending on complexity
Prepare
for
execution
Construction
Operation
30-36 months
6-12 months
- check cost assumptions by approaching market
- bidding for contracts and/or equipment
66
95%
90%
Excluding China
85%
80%
75%
70%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F2014F2015F2016F2017F
Price relations
68
Jan 02
Jan 03
Jan 04
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
69
USD/t
350
700
300
600
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Corn
70
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ukraine (Fertecon)
2011
US
2012
China
2013
2014E
71
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
02/03
0
03/04
04/05
05/06
Adjusted urea*
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
* Urea fob Black sea adjusted for import costs into Europe and nitrogen content similar to CAN
10/11
11/12
Wheat price
12/13
72
USD/bu
10
Rice (Thailand)
USD/t
700
600
500
6
400
300
200
2
0
2003
USD/bu
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2003
100
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
USD/bu
20
15
10
5
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
73
USD/t
1,000
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
USD/t
500
2012
2013
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
USD/t
800
1,000
600
800
600
400
400
200
200
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Production economics
75
80
70
60
50
40
62.8
30
20
10
0
7.2
76
Gas price:
x Gas consumption:
=
Gas cost:
8
36
USD/MMBtu
36 MMBtu natural
gas/tonne ammonia
MMBtu/mt NH3
288
USD/mt NH3
26
USD/mt NH3
314
USD/mt NH3
Ammonia (NH3)
(82% N)
Typical natural gas
consumption for
ammonia production
77
314
USD/mt NH3
Ammonia use:
0.58
NH3/mt urea
Ammonia cost
182
USD/mt urea
41
USD/mt urea
22
USD/mt urea
245
USD/mt urea
36 MMBtu natural
gas/tonne ammonia
Ammonia (NH3)
(82% N)
0.58 mt ammonia
per tonne urea
CO2
Ammonia price:
Urea
(46% N)
* Process gas cost is linked to natural gas price
** Including load-out
IR Date: February 2014
78
Ammonia
(82% N)
Urea
(46% N)
AN
(33.5% N)
P and K
CAN
(27% N)
NPK
(15-15-15)*
79
Phosphate rock
(72% BPL*, 33% P2O5 )
Sulphur**
Phosphoric acid
(100% P2O5)
Production: 42
Export: 4.4
Ammonia
( 82% N)
Source: IFA
DAP
MAP
TSP
(46% P2O5)
Production: 33
Export: 16
Production: 21
Export: 5
Production: 6
Export: 3.8
Industrial applications
81
Cleaning/
scrubbing
Concentrated
nitric acid
NITCAL
DIPCAL
Aqueous
ammonia
Stationary sources
Glue
ANFO
Emulsions
Vessels (Yarwil)
Acrylonitrile
CN
TAN
Nitric
acid
N2O abatement
NOX
abatement
Dry ice
NH3
Urea
Melamine
Combined
products
Applic. LIC
CO2
Industrial gases
Formates
LIC wholesale
Nitrogen
Oxygen
Argon
Propane
Ammonia
82
Environment
3%
Environment
5%
Other
16%
Explosives
20%
Chemicals
77%
Melamine
15%
Glue
64%
83
25
20
Ammonia, DeNOx
15
Ammonia, TAN
10
Ammonia, P-Chem
5
0
2010
2015E
2020E
84
Example
Air1
NOxCare
Yarwil
85
Example
86
Example:
Industries Served :
Food care:
CO2 for greenhouses, chilling
and freezing, processing and
transport
Animal care:
Controlled atmosphere for
livestock stunning
Manufacturing:
Welding and cutting
gases
Blasting :
Multipurpose cleaning
Breweries
Dairies
Bakeries
Meat and Poultry processing
Fish Farming and processing
Greenhouses
Airline catering
Refrigerated transport
87
Industries Served :
Municipalities
Wastewater treatment
plants
Dairies
Pulp and paper industry
Slaughter houses
Breweries
Oil fields
88
www.fmb-group.co.uk
www.fertecon.com
www.cruonline.crugroup.com
www.profercy.com
www.icispricing.com
www.greenmarkets.pf.com
www.boabc.com
www.fertmarket.com
FMB
Fertecon
Fertilizer Week
Profercy
The Market
Green Markets (USA)
Beijing Orient Business (China)
China Fertilizer Market Week
www.fertilizer.org
www.efma.org
www.fao.org
www.igc.org.uk
www.cbot.com
www.worldbank.org
www.usda.gov
www.yara.com